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1.
Florence Chaubert-Pereira Yves Caraglio Christian Lavergne Yann Gu��don 《Annals of botany》2009,104(5):883-896
Background and Aims
This study aimed to identify and characterize the ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth. In the proposed approach, the tree growth data typically correspond to the retrospective measurement of annual shoot characteristics (e.g. length) along the trunk.Methods
Dedicated statistical models (semi-Markov switching linear mixed models) were applied to data sets of Corsican pine and sessile oak. In the semi-Markov switching linear mixed models estimated from these data sets, the underlying semi-Markov chain represents both the succession of growth phases and their lengths, while the linear mixed models represent both the influence of climatic factors and the inter-individual heterogeneity within each growth phase.Key Results
On the basis of these integrative statistical models, it is shown that growth phases are not only defined by average growth level but also by growth fluctuation amplitudes in response to climatic factors and inter-individual heterogeneity and that the individual tree status within the population may change between phases. Species plasticity affected the response to climatic factors while tree origin, sampling strategy and silvicultural interventions impacted inter-individual heterogeneity.Conclusions
The transposition of the proposed integrative statistical modelling approach to cambial growth in relation to climatic factors and the study of the relationship between apical growth and cambial growth constitute the next steps in this research. 相似文献2.
Background and Aims
Functional–structural plant models (FSPMs) simulate biological processes at different spatial scales. Methods exist for multiscale data representation and modification, but the advantages of using multiple scales in the dynamic aspects of FSPMs remain unclear. Results from multiscale models in various other areas of science that share fundamental modelling issues with FSPMs suggest that potential advantages do exist, and this study therefore aims to introduce an approach to multiscale modelling in FSPMs.Methods
A three-part graph data structure and grammar is revisited, and presented with a conceptual framework for multiscale modelling. The framework is used for identifying roles, categorizing and describing scale-to-scale interactions, thus allowing alternative approaches to model development as opposed to correlation-based modelling at a single scale. Reverse information flow (from macro- to micro-scale) is catered for in the framework. The methods are implemented within the programming language XL.Key Results
Three example models are implemented using the proposed multiscale graph model and framework. The first illustrates the fundamental usage of the graph data structure and grammar, the second uses probabilistic modelling for organs at the fine scale in order to derive crown growth, and the third combines multiscale plant topology with ozone trends and metabolic network simulations in order to model juvenile beech stands under exposure to a toxic trace gas.Conclusions
The graph data structure supports data representation and grammar operations at multiple scales. The results demonstrate that multiscale modelling is a viable method in FSPM and an alternative to correlation-based modelling. Advantages and disadvantages of multiscale modelling are illustrated by comparisons with single-scale implementations, leading to motivations for further research in sensitivity analysis and run-time efficiency for these models. 相似文献3.
Papadopoulos A 《PloS one》2011,6(9):e25267
Background
In the absence of stochasticity, allometric growth throughout ontogeny is axiomatically described by the logarithm-transformed power-law model, , where and are the logarithmic sizes of two traits at any given time t. Realistically, however, stochasticity is an inherent property of ontogenetic allometry. Due to the inherent stochasticity in both and , the ontogenetic allometry coefficients, and k, can vary with t and have intricate temporal distributions that are governed by the central and mixed moments of the random ontogenetic growth functions, and . Unfortunately, there is no probabilistic model for analyzing these informative ontogenetic statistical moments.Methodology/Principal Findings
This study treats and as correlated stochastic processes to formulate the exact probabilistic version of each of the ontogenetic allometry coefficients. In particular, the statistical dynamics of relative growth is addressed by analyzing the allometric growth factors that affect the temporal distribution of the probabilistic version of the relative growth rate, , where is the expected value of the ratio of stochastic to stochastic , and and are the numerator and the denominator of , respectively. These allometric growth factors, which provide important insight into ontogenetic allometry but appear only when stochasticity is introduced, describe the central and mixed moments of and as differentiable real-valued functions of t.Conclusions/Significance
Failure to account for the inherent stochasticity in both and leads not only to the miscalculation of k, but also to the omission of all of the informative ontogenetic statistical moments that affect the size of traits and the timing and rate of development of traits. Furthermore, even though the stochastic process and the stochastic process are linearly related, k can vary with t. 相似文献4.
Background
Despite the high prevalence and major public health ramifications, obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) remains underdiagnosed. In many developed countries, because community pharmacists (CP) are easily accessible, they have been developing additional clinical services that integrate the services of and collaborate with other healthcare providers (general practitioners (GPs), nurses, etc.). Alternative strategies for primary care screening programs for OSAS involving the CP are discussed.Objective
To estimate the quality of life, costs, and cost-effectiveness of three screening strategies among patients who are at risk of having moderate to severe OSAS in primary care.Design
Markov decision model.Data Sources
Published data.Target Population
Hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old male patients with symptoms highly evocative of OSAS.Time Horizon
The 5 years after initial evaluation for OSAS.Perspective
Societal.Interventions
Screening strategy with CP (CP-GP collaboration), screening strategy without CP (GP alone) and no screening.Outcomes measures
Quality of life, survival and costs for each screening strategy.Results of base-case analysis
Under almost all modeled conditions, the involvement of CPs in OSAS screening was cost effective. The maximal incremental cost for “screening strategy with CP” was about 455€ per QALY gained.Results of sensitivity analysis
Our results were robust but primarily sensitive to the treatment costs by continuous positive airway pressure, and the costs of untreated OSAS. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the “screening strategy with CP” was dominant in 80% of cases. It was more effective and less costly in 47% of cases, and within the cost-effective range (maximum incremental cost effectiveness ratio at €6186.67/QALY) in 33% of cases.Conclusions
CP involvement in OSAS screening is a cost-effective strategy. This proposal is consistent with the trend in Europe and the United States to extend the practices and responsibilities of the pharmacist in primary care. 相似文献5.
Background
Despite the common experience that interrupted sleep has a negative impact on waking function, the features of human sleep-wake architecture that best distinguish sleep continuity versus fragmentation remain elusive. In this regard, there is growing interest in characterizing sleep architecture using models of the temporal dynamics of sleep-wake stage transitions. In humans and other mammals, the state transitions defining sleep and wake bout durations have been described with exponential and power law models, respectively. However, sleep-wake stage distributions are often complex, and distinguishing between exponential and power law processes is not always straightforward. Although mono-exponential distributions are distinct from power law distributions, multi-exponential distributions may in fact resemble power laws by appearing linear on a log-log plot.Methodology/Principal Findings
To characterize the parameters that may allow these distributions to mimic one another, we systematically fitted multi-exponential-generated distributions with a power law model, and power law-generated distributions with multi-exponential models. We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method to investigate goodness of fit for the “incorrect” model over a range of parameters. The “zone of mimicry” of parameters that increased the risk of mistakenly accepting power law fitting resembled empiric time constants obtained in human sleep and wake bout distributions.Conclusions/Significance
Recognizing this uncertainty in model distinction impacts interpretation of transition dynamics (self-organizing versus probabilistic), and the generation of predictive models for clinical classification of normal and pathological sleep architecture. 相似文献6.
Susanne Rasmussen John H. M. Thornley Anthony J. Parsons Scott J. Harrison 《Annals of botany》2013,111(6):1219-1231
Background and Aims
There are many unresolved issues concerning the biochemistry of fructan biosynthesis. The aim of this paper is to address some of these by means of modelling mathematically the biochemical processes.Methods
A model has been constructed for the step-by-step synthesis of fructan polymers. This is run until a steady state is achieved for which a polymer distribution is predicted. It is shown how qualitatively different distributions can be obtained.Key Results
It is demonstrated how a set of experimental results on polymer distribution can by simulated by a simple parameter adjustments.Conclusions
Mathematical modelling of fructan biosynthesis can provide a useful tool for helping elucidate the details of the biosynthetic processes. 相似文献7.
Background
Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.Methodology/Principal Findings
We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort.Conclusions/Significance
Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species. 相似文献8.
9.
Background and Aims
The phenotypes of grasses show differences depending on growth conditions and ontogenetic stage. Understanding these responses and finding suitable mathematical formalizations are an essential part of the development of plant and crop models. Usually, a marked change in architecture between juvenile and adult plants is observed, where dimension and shape of leaves are likely to change. In this paper, the plasticity of leaf shape is analysed according to growth conditions and ontogeny.Methods
Leaf shape of Triticum aestivum, Hordeum vulgare and Zea mays cultivars grown under varying conditions was measured using digital image processing. An empirical leaf shape model was fitted to measured shape data of single leaves. Obtained values of model parameters were used to analyse the patterns in leaf shape.Key Results
The model was able to delineate leaf shape of all studied species. The model error was small. Differences in leaf shape between juvenile and adult leaves in T. aestivum and H. vulgare were observed. Varying growth conditions impacted leaf dimensions but did not impact leaf shape of the respective species.Conclusions
Leaf shape of the studied T. aestivum and H. vulgare cultivars was remarkably stable for a comparable ontogenetic stage (leaf rank), but differed between stages. Along with other aspects of grass architecture, leaf shape changed during the transition from juvenile to adult growth phase. Model-based analysis of leaf shape is a method to investigate these differences. Presented results can be integrated into architectural models of plant development to delineate leaf shape for different species, cultivars and environmental conditions. 相似文献10.
Guillaume Garin Christian Fournier Bruno Andrieu Vianney Houlès Corinne Robert Christophe Pradal 《Annals of botany》2014,114(4):795-812
Background and Aims
Sustainable agriculture requires the identification of new, environmentally responsible strategies of crop protection. Modelling of pathosystems can allow a better understanding of the major interactions inside these dynamic systems and may lead to innovative protection strategies. In particular, functional–structural plant models (FSPMs) have been identified as a means to optimize the use of architecture-related traits. A current limitation lies in the inherent complexity of this type of modelling, and thus the purpose of this paper is to provide a framework to both extend and simplify the modelling of pathosystems using FSPMs.Methods
Different entities and interactions occurring in pathosystems were formalized in a conceptual model. A framework based on these concepts was then implemented within the open-source OpenAlea modelling platform, using the platform''s general strategy of modelling plant–environment interactions and extending it to handle plant interactions with pathogens. New developments include a generic data structure for representing lesions and dispersal units, and a series of generic protocols to communicate with objects representing the canopy and its microenvironment in the OpenAlea platform. Another development is the addition of a library of elementary models involved in pathosystem modelling. Several plant and physical models are already available in OpenAlea and can be combined in models of pathosystems using this framework approach.Key Results
Two contrasting pathosystems are implemented using the framework and illustrate its generic utility. Simulations demonstrate the framework''s ability to simulate multiscaled interactions within pathosystems, and also show that models are modular components within the framework and can be extended. This is illustrated by testing the impact of canopy architectural traits on fungal dispersal.Conclusions
This study provides a framework for modelling a large number of pathosystems using FSPMs. This structure can accommodate both previously developed models for individual aspects of pathosystems and new ones. Complex models are deconstructed into separate ‘knowledge sources’ originating from different specialist areas of expertise and these can be shared and reassembled into multidisciplinary models. The framework thus provides a beneficial tool for a potential diverse and dynamic research community. 相似文献11.
Riccardo E. Marioni Michael J. Valenzuela Ardo van den Hout Carol Brayne Fiona E. Matthews MRC Cognitive Function Ageing Study 《PloS one》2012,7(12)
Background
Three factors commonly used as measures of cognitive lifestyle are education, occupation, and social engagement. This study determined the relative importance of each variable to long term cognitive health in those with and without severe cognitive impairment.Methods
Data came from 12,470 participants from a multi-centre population-based cohort (Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study). Respondents were aged 65 years and over and were followed-up over 16 years. Cognitive states of no impairment, slight impairment, and moderate/severe impairment were defined, based on scores from the Mini-Mental State Examination. Multi-state modelling was used to investigate links between component cognitive lifestyle variables, cognitive state transitions over time, and death.Results
Higher educational attainment and a more complex mid-life occupation were associated with a lower risk of moving from a non-impaired to a slightly impaired state (hazard ratios 0.5 and 0.8), but with increased mortality from a severely impaired state (1.3 and 1.1). More socially engaged individuals had a decreased risk of moving from a slightly impaired state to a moderately/severely impaired state (0.7). All three cognitive lifestyle variables were linked to an increased chance of cognitive recovery back to the non-impaired state.Conclusions
In those without severe cognitive impairment, different aspects of cognitive lifestyle predict positive cognitive transitions over time, and in those with severe cognitive impairment, a reduced life-expectancy. An active cognitive lifestyle is therefore linked to compression of cognitive morbidity in late life. 相似文献12.
Alexander Vrijdaghs Marc Reynders Isabel Larridon A. Muthama Muasya Erik Smets Paul Goetghebeur 《Annals of botany》2010,105(4):555-571
Background and Aims
In Cyperoideae, one of the two subfamilies in Cyperaceae, unresolved homology questions about spikelets remained. This was particularly the case in taxa with distichously organized spikelets and in Cariceae, a tribe with complex compound inflorescences comprising male (co)florescences and deciduous female single-flowered lateral spikelets. Using ontogenetic techniques, a wide range of taxa were investigated, including some controversial ones, in order to find morphological arguments to understand the nature of the spikelet in Cyperoideae. This paper presents a review of both new ontogenetic data and current knowledge, discussing a cyperoid, general, monopodial spikelet model.Methods
Scanning electron microscopy and light microscopy were used to examine spikelets of 106 species from 33 cyperoid genera.Results
Ontogenetic data presented allow a consistent cyperoid spikelet model to be defined. Scanning and light microscopic images in controversial taxa such as Schoenus nigricans, Cariceae and Cypereae are interpreted accordingly.Conclusions
Spikelets in all species studied consist of an indeterminate rachilla, and one to many spirally to distichously arranged glumes, each subtending a flower or empty. Lateral spikelets are subtended by a bract and have a spikelet prophyll. In distichously organized spikelets, combined concaulescence of the flowers and epicaulescence (a newly defined metatopic displacement) of the glumes has caused interpretational controversy in the past. In Cariceae, the male (co)florescences are terminal spikelets. Female single-flowered spikelets are positioned proximally on the rachis. To explain both this and the secondary spikelets in some Cypereae, the existence of an ontogenetic switch determining the development of a primordium into flower, or lateral axis is postulated. 相似文献13.
Background
The cost and dietary choices required to fulfil nutrient recommendations defined nationally, need investigation, particularly for disadvantaged populations.Objective
We used optimisation modelling to examine the dietary change required to achieve nutrient requirements at minimum cost for an Aboriginal population in remote Australia, using where possible minimally-processed whole foods.Design
A twelve month cross-section of population-level purchased food, food price and nutrient content data was used as the baseline. Relative amounts from 34 food group categories were varied to achieve specific energy and nutrient density goals at minimum cost while meeting model constraints intended to minimise deviation from the purchased diet.Results
Simultaneous achievement of all nutrient goals was not feasible. The two most successful models (A & B) met all nutrient targets except sodium (146.2% and 148.9% of the respective target) and saturated fat (12.0% and 11.7% of energy). Model A was achieved with 3.2% lower cost than the baseline diet (which cost approximately AUD$13.01/person/day) and Model B at 7.8% lower cost but with a reduction in energy of 4.4%. Both models required very large reductions in sugar sweetened beverages (−90%) and refined cereals (−90%) and an approximate four-fold increase in vegetables, fruit, dairy foods, eggs, fish and seafood, and wholegrain cereals.Conclusion
This modelling approach suggested population level dietary recommendations at minimal cost based on the baseline purchased diet. Large shifts in diet in remote Aboriginal Australian populations are needed to achieve national nutrient targets. The modeling approach used was not able to meet all nutrient targets at less than current food expenditure. 相似文献14.
Background
Classification and regression tree (CART) models are tree-based exploratory data analysis methods which have been shown to be very useful in identifying and estimating complex hierarchical relationships in ecological and medical contexts. In this paper, a Bayesian CART model is described and applied to the problem of modelling the cryptosporidiosis infection in Queensland, Australia.Methodology/Principal Findings
We compared the results of a Bayesian CART model with those obtained using a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Overall, the analyses indicated that the nature and magnitude of the effect estimates were similar for the two methods in this study, but the CART model more easily accommodated higher order interaction effects.Conclusions/Significance
A Bayesian CART model for identification and estimation of the spatial distribution of disease risk is useful in monitoring and assessment of infectious diseases prevention and control. 相似文献15.
Christine Soong Bochra Kurabi David Wells Lesley Caines Matthew W. Morgan Rebecca Ramsden Chaim M. Bell 《PloS one》2014,9(11)
Importance
The transition from hospital to home can expose patients to adverse events during the post discharge period. Post discharge care including phone calls may provide support for patients returning home but the impact on care transitions is unknown.Objective
To examine the effect of a 72-hour post discharge phone call on the patient''s transition of care experience.Design
Cluster-randomized control trial.Setting
Urban, academic medical center.Participants
General medical patients age 18 and older discharged home after hospitalization.Main Outcomes and Measures
Primary outcome measure was the Care Transition Measure (CTM-3) score, a validated measure of the quality of care transitions. Secondary measures included self-reported adherence to medication and follow up plans, and 30-day composite of emergency department (ED) visits and hospital readmission.Results
328 patients were included in the study over an 6-month period. 114 (69%) received a post discharge phone call, and 214 of all patients in the study completed the follow outcome survey (65% response rate). A small difference in CTM-3 scores was observed between the intervention and control groups (1.87 points, 95% CI 0.47–3.27, p = 0.01). Self-reported adherence to treatment plans, ED visits, and emergency readmission rates were similar between the two groups (odds ratio 0.57, 95% CI 0.13–2.45, 1.20, 95% CI 0.61–2.37, and 1.18, 95% CI 0.53–2.61, respectively).Conclusions and Relevance
A single post discharge phone call had a small impact on the quality of care transitions and no effect on hospital utilization. Higher intensity post discharge support may be required to improve the patient experience upon returning home.Trial Registration
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01580774 相似文献16.
Ivo Marx Cornelia H?pcke Christoph Berger Roland Wandschneider Sabine C. Herpertz 《PloS one》2013,8(6)
Objectives
Although it is well established that cognitive performance in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is affected by reward and that key deficits associated with the disorder may thereby be attenuated or even compensated, this phenomenon in adults with ADHD has thus far not been addressed. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to examine the motivating effect of financial reward on task performance in adults with ADHD by focusing on the domains of executive functioning, attention, time perception, and delay aversion.Methods
We examined male and female adults aged 18–40 years with ADHD (n = 38) along with a matched control group (n = 40) using six well-established experimental paradigms.Results
Impaired performance in the ADHD group was observed for stop-signal omission errors, n-back accuracy, reaction time variability in the continuous performance task, and time reproduction accuracy, and reward normalized time reproduction accuracy. Furthermore, when rewarded, subjects with ADHD exhibited longer reaction times and fewer false positives in the continuous performance task, which suggests the use of strategies to prevent impulsivity errors.Conclusions
Taken together, our results support the existence of both cognitive and motivational mechanisms for the disorder, which is in line with current models of ADHD. Furthermore, our data suggest cognitive strategies of “stopping and thinking” as a possible underlying mechanism for task improvement that seems to be mediated by reward, which highlights the importance of the interaction between motivation and cognition in adult ADHD. 相似文献17.
Kasey E. Barton 《Annals of botany》2013,112(4):711-720
Background and Aims
Herbivory and plant defence differ markedly among seedlings and juvenile and mature plants in most species. While ontogenetic patterns of chemical resistance have been the focus of much research, comparatively little is known about how tolerance to damage changes across ontogeny. Due to dramatic shifts in plant size, resource acquisition, stored reserves and growth, it was predicted that tolerance and related underlying mechanisms would differ among ontogenetic stages.Methods
Ontogenetic patterns in the mechanisms of tolerance were investigated in Plantago lanceolata and P. major (Plantaginaceae) using the genetic sib-ship approach. Pot-grown plants were subjected to 50 % defoliation at the seedling, juvenile and mature stages and either harvested in the short-term to look at plasticity in growth and photosynthesis in response to damage or allowed to grow through seed maturation to measure phenology, shoot compensation and reproductive fitness.Key Results
Tolerance to defoliation was high in P. lanceolata, but low in P. major, and did not vary among ontogenetic stages in either species. Mechanisms underlying tolerance did vary across ontogeny. In P. lanceolata, tolerance was significantly related to flowering (juveniles) and pre-damage shoot biomass (mature plants). In P. major, tolerance was significantly related to pre-damage root biomass (seedlings) and induction of non-photochemical quenching, a photosynthetic parameter (juveniles).Conclusions
Biomass partitioning was very plastic in response to damage and showed associations with tolerance in both species, indicating a strong role in plant defence. In contrast, photosynthesis and phenology showed weaker responses to damage and were related to tolerance only in certain ontogenetic stages. This study highlights the pivotal role of ontogeny in plant defence and herbivory. Additional studies in more species are needed to determine how seedlings tolerate herbivory in general and whether mechanisms vary across ontogeny in consistent patterns. 相似文献18.
Objective
The Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire (EDE-Q) is a self-report instrument assessing the specific psychopathology and key behaviors of eating disorders. This study sought to determine the prevalence of eating disturbances, and to provide psychometric properties and norms of the EDE-Q, in a representative German population sample.Methods
A total of 2520 individuals (1166 men, 1354 women) were assessed with the EDE-Q.Results
Eating disorder psychopathology was higher and most key behaviors were more prevalent in women than in men. Psychopathology declined with age ≥65 in both sexes, and showed a peak at age 55–64 in men. Overall, 5.9% of the women and 1.5% of the men revealed eating disturbances. The prevalence of eating disturbances decreased with age in women and was significantly higher in obese than in normal-weight individuals. Psychometric analyses showed favorable item characteristics. Internal consistencies of EDE-Q composite scores were ≥.80 for women and ≥.70 for men. The factor structure of the EDE-Q was partially reproduced. Sex- and age-specific population norms are reported.Discussion
This study provides population norms of the EDE-Q for both sexes and across the age range, demonstrates demographic variations in symptomatology, and reveals satisfactory psychometric properties. Further research is warranted on eating disturbances in older adults. 相似文献19.
Peter Byass Kathleen Kahn Edward Fottrell Mark A. Collinson Stephen M. Tollman 《PLoS medicine》2010,7(8)