Variability of important vital rates challenges the demographic buffering hypothesis

Selection is assumed to eliminate life-histories showing high variability in vital rates that have the greatest influence on population performance. Therefore, an inverse variability-importance relationship of vital rates is believed to be a universal pattern for diverse life-histories. We tested for such a relationship using multi-year demographic data on a large number of populations of two perennial plant species. Applying different approaches, we first examined the overall variability-importance relationship for the average main vital rates (survival, growth, retrogression, fecundity) per species, and then separately for each population. We found an overall inverse relationship between temporal variation and importance of the average main vital rates for both study species, but these negative species-level correlations were mainly caused by different scales of the examined vital rates. When variability-importance relationships were examined across individual demographic transitions within populations, the abundance of positive and negative correlations depended largely on the method used, and positive correlations were more common after correcting vital rates for sampling variation than when using uncorrected vital rates. Our results cast doubt on the generality of the demographic buffering hypothesis, suggesting that the inverse variability-importance relationship may not be a universal pattern when vital rates are examined for multiple populations of the same plant species.     

Disease transmission models with density-dependent demographics

The models considered for the spread of an infectious disease in a population are of SIRS or SIS type with a standard incidence expression. The varying population size is described by a modification of the logistic differential equation which includes a term for disease-related deaths. The models have density-dependent restricted growth due to a decreasing birth rate and an increasing death rate as the population size increases towards its carrying capacity. Thresholds, equilibria and stability are determined for the systems of ordinary differential equations for each model. The persistence of the infectious disease and disease-related deaths can lead to a new equilibrium population size below the carrying capacity and can even cause the population to become extinct.Research supported in part by Centers for Disease Control contract 200-87-0515     

Coexistence in competition models with density-dependent mortality

We consider a two-competitor/one-prey model in which both competitors exhibit a general functional response and one of the competitors exhibits a density-dependent mortality rate. It is shown that the two competitors can coexist upon the single prey. As an example, we consider a two-competitor/one-prey model with a Holling II functional response. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent mortality in one of the competitors can prevent competitive exclusion. Moreover, by constructing a Liapunov function, the system has a globally stable positive equilibrium.     

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30 years of mark-recapture data

1. Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2. We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30 years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3. We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4. Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life-history evolution in stochastic environments and provides useful information for predicting population responses to future environmental change. Our results for an Antarctic apex predator also provide useful baselines from a marine ecosystem when its top- and middle-trophic levels were not substantially impacted by human activity.     

A juvenile-adult model with periodic vital rates

A global branch of positive cycles is shown to exist for a general discrete time, juvenile-adult model with periodically varying coefficients. The branch bifurcates from the extinction state at a critical value of the mean, inherent fertility rate. In comparison to the autonomous system with the same mean fertility rate, the critical bifurcation value can either increase or decrease with the introduction of periodicities. Thus, periodic oscillations in vital parameter can be either advantageous or deleterious. A determining factor is the phase relationship among the oscillations in the inherent fertility and survival rates.Research supported by NSF grant DMS-0414212.     

Vaccination in density-dependent epidemic models

This paper examines the effect of vaccination for an epidemic model where the death rate depends on the number of individuals in the population. The basic model which is described is based on measles or other childhood diseases in developing countries or viral diseases such as rabies in animal populations. An equilibrium analysis of the model and the local stability of small perturbations about the equilibrium values are discussed. The biological implications of these results are examined and similar results presented for modifications of the basic model.     

Differences in vital demographic rates in three populations of the epiphytic bromeliad, Werauhia sanguinolenta

Since the response to differences in resource availability is most pronounced in smaller individuals of vascular epiphytes such as Werauhia sanguinolenta Cogn. et Marchal (Bromeliaceae), I expected variation in growth and survival of small individuals to play an important role in the dynamics of entire populations. Four annual censuses (2002–2005) of three study populations, which were located across the isthmus of Panama, allowed me to construct stage transition matrices, and to conduct growth analysis and elasticity analysis. Differences between populations were highly consistent through time, but, contrary to expectations, hardly related to the comportment of smaller plants. For example, although average mortality rates were highest at the driest site, close to the Pacific, small plants were not predominantly affected. Similarly, although the highest relative growth rates (RGR) of individuals and the highest population growth rates (λ) were found in the population with the highest moisture input, which was located close to the Atlantic coast, this was not due to a particularly strong stimulation of RGR in small plants. Elasticity analysis indicated rather small differences in the importance of the three demographic processes growth, survival, and reproduction for population growth in the three populations, but invariably identified the survival of large tanks as the single most important process determining λ.     

Persistence in population models with demographic fluctuations

A persistence and extinction theory is developed through analytical studies of deterministic population models. Under hypotheses that require demographic parameters to fluctuate temporally, the populations may or may not oscillaate. Extinction, when it occurs, is asymptotic. An hierarchy of persistence criteria, based upon fluctuations measured by time average means, is derived. In some situations a threshold value is found to separate persistent population models from those that tend to extinction. Application of the persistence-extinction theory is to the problem of assessing effects of a toxic substance on a population when toxicant inputs to the environment and to resources are oscillatory.     

Optimal rates of bisexual reproduction in cyclical parthenogens with density-dependent growth

This work explores theoretical patterns of reproduction that maximize the production of resting eggs and the long-term fitness of genotypes in cyclical parthenogens. Our focus is on density-dependent reproduction as it influences the consequences of a trade-off between producing amictic daughters – which reproduce parthenogenetically and subitaneously – and producing mictic daughters – which undergo meiosis and bisexual reproduction. Amictic females increase competitive ability and allow the population to achieve a larger size; mictic females directly contribute to population survival through harsh periods by producing resting eggs. Although morphologically indistinguishable, the two types of females differ greatly in their ecological and reproductive roles. What factors underlie the differential allocation of resources to produce amictic and mictic females? Using a demographic model based on readily accessible parameters we demonstrate the existence of a frequency of mictic females that will maximize the population's long-term fitness. This frequency, termed the optimal mictic ratio, m_o, is 1 ? (q/b)^1/2, where q is the mortality rate and b is the maximum birth rate. Using computer simulation we compared the fitness of a population with this constant mictic ratio with populations having multiple switches from complete parthenogenetic growth to complete allocation in mixis (mictic ratio either 0 or 1). Two important conclusions for optimal mixis in density-dependent growth conditions are: (1) intermediate mictic ratios are optimal, and (2) optimal mictic ratios are higher when habitat conditions are better. Physiological cues responding to differences in birth and death rates are common so that it is possible that populations may adjust their relative rates of mictic and amictic female production in response to environmentally induced changes to the optimum mictic ratio. Our analysis demonstrates that different patterns of mixis are expected in different type of habitats. Since the optimal mictic ratio is sensitive to the effects of a variety of environmental challenges, our model makes possible a new means to evaluate life history evolution in cyclical parthenogens.     

Finite metapopulation models with density-dependent migration and stochastic local dynamics

The effects of small density-dependent migration on the dynamics of a metapopulation are studied in a model with stochastic local dynamics. We use a diffusion approximation to study how changes in the migration rate and habitat occupancy affect the rates of local colonization and extinction. If the emigration rate increases or if the immigration rate decreases with local population size, a positive expected rate of change in habitat occupancy is found for a greater range of habitat occupancies than when the migration is density-independent. In contrast, the reverse patterns of density dependence in respective emigration and immigration reduce the range of habitat occupancies where the metapopulation will be viable. This occurs because density-dependent migration strongly influences both the establishment and rescue effects in the local dynamics of metapopulations.     

Stability analysis of a predator-prey system with mutual interference and density-dependent death rates

A two species predator-prey model is proposed incorporating the notions of mutual interference among predators as well as a density-dependent predator death rate. The latter leads to a curved predator isocline. Conditions for an interior equilibrium are given, and the stability of this equilibrium is analyzed. Certain critical cases, some of which cannot occur in the usual model are also discussed.     

Disease-induced mortality in density-dependent discrete-time S-I-S epidemic models

The dynamics of simple discrete-time epidemic models without disease-induced mortality are typically characterized by global transcritical bifurcation. We prove that in corresponding models with disease-induced mortality a tiny number of infectious individuals can drive an otherwise persistent population to extinction. Our model with disease-induced mortality supports multiple attractors. In addition, we use a Ricker recruitment function in an SIS model and obtained a three component discrete Hopf (Neimark-Sacker) cycle attractor coexisting with a fixed point attractor. The basin boundaries of the coexisting attractors are fractal in nature, and the example exhibits sensitive dependence of the long-term disease dynamics on initial conditions. Furthermore, we show that in contrast to corresponding models without disease-induced mortality, the disease-free state dynamics do not drive the disease dynamics.     

Coexistence of multiple pathogen strains in stochastic epidemic models with density-dependent mortality

Stochastic differential equations that model an SIS epidemic with multiple pathogen strains are derived from a system of ordinary differential equations. The stochastic model assumes there is demographic variability. The dynamics of the deterministic model are summarized. Then the dynamics of the stochastic model are compared to the deterministic model. In the deterministic model, there can be either disease extinction, competitive exclusion, where only one strain persists, or coexistence, where more than one strain persists. In the stochastic model, all strains are eventually eliminated because the disease-free state is an absorbing state. However, if the population size and the initial number of infected individuals are sufficiently large, it may take a long time until all strains are eliminated. Numerical simulations of the stochastic model show that coexistence cases predicted by the deterministic model are an unlikely occurrence in the stochastic model even for short time periods. In the stochastic model, either disease extinction or competitive exclusion occur. The initial number of infected individuals, the basic reproduction numbers, and other epidemiological parameters are important determinants of the dominant strain in the stochastic epidemic model.     

Low demographic variability in wild primate populations: fitness impacts of variation, covariation, and serial correlation in vital rates

In a stochastic environment, long-term fitness can be influenced by variation, covariation, and serial correlation in vital rates (survival and fertility). Yet no study of an animal population has parsed the contributions of these three aspects of variability to long-term fitness. We do so using a unique database that includes complete life-history information for wild-living individuals of seven primate species that have been the subjects of long-term (22-45 years) behavioral studies. Overall, the estimated levels of vital rate variation had only minor effects on long-term fitness, and the effects of vital rate covariation and serial correlation were even weaker. To explore why, we compared estimated variances of adult survival in primates with values for other vertebrates in the literature and found that adult survival is significantly less variable in primates than it is in the other vertebrates. Finally, we tested the prediction that adult survival, because it more strongly influences fitness in a constant environment, will be less variable than newborn survival, and we found only mixed support for the prediction. Our results suggest that wild primates may be buffered against detrimental fitness effects of environmental stochasticity by their highly developed cognitive abilities, social networks, and broad, flexible diets.     

Accelerating invasion rates result from the evolution of density-dependent dispersal

Evolutionary processes play an important role in shaping the dynamics of range expansions, and selection on dispersal propensity has been demonstrated to accelerate rates of advance. Previous theory has considered only the evolution of unconditional dispersal rates, but dispersal is often more complex. For example, many species emigrate in response to crowding. Here, we use an individual-based model to investigate the evolution of density dependent dispersal into empty habitat, such as during an invasion. The landscape is represented as a lattice and dispersal between populations follows a stepping-stone pattern. Individuals carry three ‘genes’ that determine their dispersal strategy when experiencing different population densities. For a stationary range we obtain results consistent with previous theoretical studies: few individuals emigrate from patches that are below equilibrium density. However, during the range expansion of a previously stationary population, we observe evolution towards dispersal strategies where considerable emigration occurs well below equilibrium density. This is true even for moderate costs to dispersal, and always results in accelerating rates of range expansion. Importantly, the evolution we observe at an expanding front depends upon fitness integrated over several generations and cannot be predicted by a consideration of lifetime reproductive success alone. We argue that a better understanding of the role of density dependent dispersal, and its evolution, in driving population dynamics is required especially within the context of range expansions.     

Size-structured demographic models of coral populations

The demographic processes of growth, mortality, and the recruitment of young individuals, are the major organizing forces regulating communities in open systems. Here we present a size-structured (rather than age-structured) population model to examine the role of these different processes in space-limited open systems, taking coral reefs as an example. In this flux-diffusion model the growth rate of corals depends both on the available free-space (i.e. density-dependence) and on the particular size of the coral. In our analysis we progressively study several different forms of growth rate functions to disentangle the effects of free space and size-dependence on the model's stability. Unlike Roughgarden et al. [1985. Demographic theory for an open marine population space-limited recruitment. Ecology 66(1), 54-67], whose principal result is that the growth of settled organisms is destabilizing, we find that size-dependent growth rate often has the potential to endow stability. This is particularly true, if the growth rate is dependent on available free space (i.e. density dependent), but examples are given for growth rates that even lack this property. Further insights into reef system fragility are found through studying the sensitivity of the model steady state to changes in recruitment.     

Properties of some density-dependent integrodifference equation population models.

Integrodifference equations may be used as models of populations with discrete generations inhabiting continuous habitats. In this paper integrodifference equation models are formulated for annual plant populations without a seed bank; these models differ in the stage of the life cycle at which intraspecific competition acts to reduce vital rates. The models exhibit a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations leading to chaotic spatial and temporal behavior. The behavior of the models when modal dispersal distances are at the origin is compared with their behavior when these distances are displaced away from the origin. The models are capable of predicting stable, cyclical, and chaotic asymptotic behavior. They also predict that the variance of dispersal distances is an important indicator of the colonizing ability of a species.     

Optimal fishery policy for size-specific,density-dependent population models

Optimal harvest policy is derived for a size-specific population model based on the continuity equation. In this model both growth and recruitment rates can depend on either the number of individuals of specific sizes in the population or the level of food available. Necessary conditions for values of fishing pressure and size limit that maximize the present value of the resource are obtained and are interpreted in economic terms. The general solution obtained here reduces to solutions obtained previously for some special cases: the single age-class model, and the linear age-dependent model. Solutions involving constant fishery policy are sought for several different, specific versions of the general model. In each of these versions a constant policy solution is not optimal. This implies that for a general, realistic model the policy that maximizes present value is a time-varying or pulse fishing policy. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed in the light of existing results.     

Sequential Markov coalescent algorithms for population models with demographic structure

We analyse sequential Markov coalescent algorithms for populations with demographic structure: for a bottleneck model, a population-divergence model, and for a two-island model with migration. The sequential Markov coalescent method is an approximation to the coalescent suggested by McVean and Cardin, and by Marjoram and Wall. Within this algorithm we compute, for two individuals randomly sampled from the population, the correlation between times to the most recent common ancestor and the linkage probability corresponding to two different loci with recombination rate R between them. These quantities characterise the linkage between the two loci in question. We find that the sequential Markov coalescent method approximates the coalescent well in general in models with demographic structure. An exception is the case where individuals are sampled from populations separated by reduced gene flow. In this situation, the correlations may be significantly underestimated. We explain why this is the case.     

Density-dependent vital rates and their population dynamic consequences

We explore a set of simple, nonlinear, two-stage models that allow us to compare the effects of density dependence on population dynamics among different kinds of life cycles. We characterize the behavior of these models in terms of their equilibria, bifurcations, and nonlinear dynamics, for a wide range of parameters. Our analyses lead to several generalizations about the effects of life history and density dependence on population dynamics. Among these are: (1) iteroparous life histories are more likely to be stable than semelparous life histories; (2) an increase in juvenile survivorship tends to be stabilizing; (3) density-dependent adult survival cannot control population growth when reproductive output is high; (4) density-dependent reproduction is more likely to cause chaotic dynamics than density dependence in other vital rates; and (5) changes in development rate have only small effects on bifurcation patterns. Received: 12 April 1999 / Published online: 3 August 2000