Bayesian shrinkage analysis of QTLs under shape-adaptive shrinkage priors, and accurate re-estimation of genetic effects

The successful implementation of Bayesian shrinkage analysis of high-dimensional regression models, as often encountered in quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, is contingent upon the choice of suitable sparsity-inducing priors. In practice, the shape (that is, the rate of tail decay) of such priors is typically preset, with no regard for the range of plausible alternatives and the fact that the most appropriate shape may depend on the data at hand. This study is presumably the first attempt to tackle this oversight through the shape-adaptive shrinkage prior (SASP) approach, with a focus on the mapping of QTLs in experimental crosses. Simulation results showed that the separation between genuine QTL effects and spurious ones can be made clearer using the SASP-based approach as compared with existing competitors. This feature makes our new method a promising approach to QTL mapping, where good separation is the ultimate goal. We also discuss a re-estimation procedure intended to improve the accuracy of the estimated genetic effects of detected QTLs with regard to shrinkage-induced bias, which may be particularly important in large-scale models with collinear predictors. The re-estimation procedure is relevant to any shrinkage method, and is potentially valuable for many scientific disciplines such as bioinformatics and quantitative genetics, where oversaturated models are booming.     

Multiple interval mapping for quantitative trait loci.

A new statistical method for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL), called multiple interval mapping (MIM), is presented. It uses multiple marker intervals simultaneously to fit multiple putative QTL directly in the model for mapping QTL. The MIM model is based on Cockerham's model for interpreting genetic parameters and the method of maximum likelihood for estimating genetic parameters. With the MIM approach, the precision and power of QTL mapping could be improved. Also, epistasis between QTL, genotypic values of individuals, and heritabilities of quantitative traits can be readily estimated and analyzed. Using the MIM model, a stepwise selection procedure with likelihood ratio test statistic as a criterion is proposed to identify QTL. This MIM method was applied to a mapping data set of radiata pine on three traits: brown cone number, tree diameter, and branch quality scores. Based on the MIM result, seven, six, and five QTL were detected for the three traits, respectively. The detected QTL individually contributed from approximately 1 to 27% of the total genetic variation. Significant epistasis between four pairs of QTL in two traits was detected, and the four pairs of QTL contributed approximately 10.38 and 14.14% of the total genetic variation. The asymptotic variances of QTL positions and effects were also provided to construct the confidence intervals. The estimated heritabilities were 0.5606, 0.5226, and 0. 3630 for the three traits, respectively. With the estimated QTL effects and positions, the best strategy of marker-assisted selection for trait improvement for a specific purpose and requirement can be explored. The MIM FORTRAN program is available on the worldwide web (http://www.stat.sinica.edu.tw/chkao/).     

Bayesian analysis of genetic architecture of quantitative trait using data of crosses of multiple inbred lines

Using the data of crosses of multiple of inbred lines for mapping QTL can increase QTL detecting power compared with only cross of two inbred lines. Although many fixed-effect model methods have been proposed to analyze such data, they are largely based on one-QTL model or main effect model, and the interaction effects between QTL are always neglected. However, effectively separating the interaction effects from the residual error can increase the statistical power. In this article, we both extended the novel Bayesian model selection method and Bayesian shrinkage estimation approaches to multiple inbred line crosses. With two extensions, interacting QTL are effectively detected with high solution; in addition, the posterior variances for both main effects and interaction effects are also subjected to full Bayesian estimate, which is more optimal than two step approach involved in maximum-likelihood. A series of simulation experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the performance of the methods. The computer program written in FORTRAN language is freely available on request.     

多QTL定位的压缩估计方法

本文综述了多标记分析和多QTL定位的压缩估计方法。对于前者,Xu（Genetics,2003,163：789—801）首先提出了Bayesian压缩估计方法。其关键在于让每个效应有一个特定的方差参数,而该方差又服从一定的先验分布,以致能从资料中估计之。由此,能够同时估计大量分子标记基因座的遗传效应,即使大多数标记的效应是可忽略的。然而,对于上位性遗传模型,其运算时间还是过长。为此,笔者将上述思想嵌入极大似然法,提出了惩罚最大似然方法。模拟研究显示：该方法能处理变量个数大于样本容量10倍左右的线性遗传模型。对于后者,本文详细介绍了基于固定区间和可变区间的Bayesian压缩估计方法。固定区间方法可处理中等密度的分子标记资料;可变区间方法则可分析高密度分子标记资料,甚至是上位性遗传模型。对于上位性检测,已介绍的惩罚最大似然方法和可变区间Bayesian压缩估计方法可供利用。应当指出,压缩估计方法在今后的eQTL和QTN定位以及基因互作网络分析等研究中也是有应用价值的。     

Shrinkage Estimation Method for Mapping Multiple Quantitative Trait Loci

In this article, shrinkage estimation method for multiple-marker analysis and for mapping multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) was reviewed. For multiple-marker analysis, Xu (Genetics, 2003, 163:789-801) developed a Bayesian shrinkage estimation (BSE) method. The key to the success of this method is to allow each marker effect have its own variance parameter, which in turn has its own prior distribution so that the variance can be estimated from the data. Under this hierarchical model, a large number of markers can be handled although most of them may have negligible effects. Under epistatic genetic model, however, the running time is very long. To overcome this problem, a novel method of incorporating the idea described above into maximum likelihood, known as penalized likelihood method, was proposed. A simulated study showed that this method can handle a model with multiple effects, which are ten times larger than the sample size. For multiple QTL analysis, two modified versions for the BSE method were introduced: one is the fixed-interval method and another is the variable-interval method. The former deals with markers with intermediate density, and the latter can handle markers with extremely high density as well as model with epistatic effects. For the detection of epistatic effects, penalized likelihood method and the variable-interval approach of the BSE method are available.     

Estimating the genetic architecture of quantitative traits

Understanding and estimating the structure and parameters associated with the genetic architecture of quantitative traits is a major research focus in quantitative genetics. With the availability of a well-saturated genetic map of molecular markers, it is possible to identify a major part of the structure of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits and to estimate the associated parameters. Multiple interval mapping, which was recently proposed for simultaneously mapping multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL), is well suited to the identification and estimation of the genetic architecture parameters, including the number, genomic positions, effects and interactions of significant QTL and their contribution to the genetic variance. With multiple traits and multiple environments involved in a QTL mapping experiment, pleiotropic effects and QTL by environment interactions can also be estimated. We review the method and discuss issues associated with multiple interval mapping, such as likelihood analysis, model selection, stopping rules and parameter estimation. The potential power and advantages of the method for mapping multiple QTL and estimating the genetic architecture are discussed. We also point out potential problems and difficulties in resolving the details of the genetic architecture as well as other areas that require further investigation. One application of the analysis is to improve genome-wide marker-assisted selection, particularly when the information about epistasis is used for selection with mating.     

Bayesian LASSO for quantitative trait loci mapping

The mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) is to identify molecular markers or genomic loci that influence the variation of complex traits. The problem is complicated by the facts that QTL data usually contain a large number of markers across the entire genome and most of them have little or no effect on the phenotype. In this article, we propose several Bayesian hierarchical models for mapping multiple QTL that simultaneously fit and estimate all possible genetic effects associated with all markers. The proposed models use prior distributions for the genetic effects that are scale mixtures of normal distributions with mean zero and variances distributed to give each effect a high probability of being near zero. We consider two types of priors for the variances, exponential and scaled inverse-chi(2) distributions, which result in a Bayesian version of the popular least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model and the well-known Student's t model, respectively. Unlike most applications where fixed values are preset for hyperparameters in the priors, we treat all hyperparameters as unknowns and estimate them along with other parameters. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed to simulate the parameters from the posteriors. The methods are illustrated using well-known barley data.     

Bayesian shrinkage analysis of quantitative trait Loci for dynamic traits

Many quantitative traits are measured repeatedly during the life of an organism. Such traits are called dynamic traits. The pattern of the changes of a dynamic trait is called the growth trajectory. Studying the growth trajectory may enhance our understanding of the genetic architecture of the growth trajectory. Recently, we developed an interval-mapping procedure to map QTL for dynamic traits under the maximum-likelihood framework. We fit the growth trajectory by Legendre polynomials. The method intended to map one QTL at a time and the entire QTL analysis involved scanning the entire genome by fitting multiple single-QTL models. In this study, we propose a Bayesian shrinkage analysis for estimating and mapping multiple QTL in a single model. The method is a combination between the shrinkage mapping for individual quantitative traits and the Legendre polynomial analysis for dynamic traits. The multiple-QTL model is implemented in two ways: (1) a fixed-interval approach where a QTL is placed in each marker interval and (2) a moving-interval approach where the position of a QTL can be searched in a range that covers many marker intervals. Simulation study shows that the Bayesian shrinkage method generates much better signals for QTL than the interval-mapping approach. We propose several alternative methods to present the results of the Bayesian shrinkage analysis. In particular, we found that the Wald test-statistic profile can serve as a mechanism to test the significance of a putative QTL.     

Simultaneous fine mapping of multiple closely linked quantitative trait Loci using combined linkage disequilibrium and linkage with a general pedigree

Within a small region (e.g., <10 cM), there can be multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying phenotypes of a trait. Simultaneous fine mapping of closely linked QTL needs an efficient tool to remove confounded shade effects among QTL within such a small region. We propose a variance component method using combined linkage disequilibrium (LD) and linkage information and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model selection. QTL identity-by-descent (IBD) coefficients between individuals are estimated by a hybrid MCMC combining the random walk and the meiosis Gibbs sampler. These coefficients are used in a mixed linear model and an empirical Bayesian procedure combines residual maximum likelihood (REML) to estimate QTL effects and a reversible jump MCMC that samples the number of QTL and the posterior QTL intensities across the tested region. Note that two MCMC processes are used, i.e., an (internal) MCMC for IBD estimation and an (external) MCMC for model selection. In a simulation study, the use of the multiple-QTL model clearly removes the shade effects between three closely linked QTL located at 1.125, 3.875, and 7.875 cM across the region of 10 cM, using 40 markers at 0.25-cM intervals. It is shown that the use of combined LD and linkage information gives much more useful information compared to using linkage information alone for both single- and multiple-QTL analyses. When using a lower marker density (11 markers at 1-cM intervals), the signal of the second QTL can disappear. Extreme values of past effective size (resulting in extreme levels of LD) decrease the mapping accuracy.     

The analysis of QTL by simultaneous use of the full linkage map

An extension of interval mapping is presented that incorporates all intervals on the linkage map simultaneously. The approach uses a working model in which the sizes of putative QTL for all intervals across the genome are random effects. An outlier detection method is used to screen for possible QTL. Selected QTL are subsequently fitted as fixed effects. This screening and selection approach is repeated until the variance component for QTL sizes is not statistically significant. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted in which map uncertainty is included. The proposed method is shown to be superior to composite interval mapping in terms of power of detection of QTL. There is an increase in the rate of false positive QTL detected when using the new approach, but this rate decreases as the population size increases. The new approach is much simpler computationally. The analysis of flour milling yield in a doubled haploid population illustrates the improved power of detection of QTL using the approach, and also shows how vital it is to allow for sources of non-genetic variation in the analysis.     

A penalized maximum likelihood method for estimating epistatic effects of QTL

Although epistasis is an important phenomenon in the genetics and evolution of complex traits, epistatic effects are hard to estimate. The main problem is due to the overparameterized epistatic genetic models. An epistatic genetic model should include potential pair-wise interaction effects of all loci. However, the model is saturated quickly as the number of loci increases. Therefore, a variable selection technique is usually considered to exclude those interactions with negligible effects. With such techniques, we may run a high risk of missing some important interaction effects by not fully exploring the extremely large parameter space of models. We develop a penalized maximum likelihood method. The method developed here adopts a penalty that depends on the values of the parameters. The penalized likelihood method allows spurious QTL effects to be shrunk towards zero, while QTL with large effects are estimated with virtually no shrinkage. A simulation study shows that the new method can handle a model with a number of effects 15 times larger than the sample size. Simulation studies also show that results of the penalized likelihood method are comparable to the Bayesian shrinkage analysis, but the computational speed of the penalized method is orders of magnitude faster.     

Improved LASSO priors for shrinkage quantitative trait loci mapping

Recently, the Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) has been successfully applied to multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping, which assigns the double-exponential prior and the Student’s t prior to QTL effect that lead to the shrinkage estimate of QTL effect. However, as reported by many researchers, the Bayesian LASSO usually cannot effectively shrink the effects of zero-effect QTL very close to zero. In this study, the double-exponential prior and Student’s t prior are modified so that the estimate of the effect for zero-effect QTL can be effectively shrunk toward zero. It is also found that the Student’s t prior is virtually the same as the Jeffreys’ prior, since both the shape and scale parameters of the scaled inverse Chi-square prior involved in the Student’s t prior are estimated very close to zero. Besides the two modified Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, an expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm with use of the modified double-exponential prior is also adapted. The results shows that the three new methods perform similarly on true positive rate and false positive rate for QTL detection, and all of them outperform the Bayesian LASSO.     

A Random Model Approach to Interval Mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci

Mapping quantitative trait loci in outbred populations is important because many populations of organisms are noninbred. Unfortunately, information about the genetic architecture of the trait may not be available in outbred populations. Thus, the allelic effects of genes can not be estimated with ease. In addition, under linkage equilibrium, marker genotypes provide no information about the genotype of a QTL (our terminology for a single quantitative trait locus is QTL while multiple loci are referred to as QTLs). To circumvent this problem, an interval mapping procedure based on a random model approach is described. Under a random model, instead of estimating the effects, segregating variances of QTLs are estimated by a maximum likelihood method. Estimation of the variance component of a QTL depends on the proportion of genes identical-by-descent (IBD) shared by relatives at the locus, which is predicted by the IBD of two markers flanking the QTL. The marker IBD shared by two relatives are inferred from the observed marker genotypes. The procedure offers an advantage over the regression interval mapping in terms of high power and small estimation errors and provides flexibility for large sibships, irregular pedigree relationships and incorporation of common environmental and fixed effects.     

Generalized Linear Model for Mapping Discrete Trait Loci Implemented with LASSO Algorithm

Generalized estimating equation (GEE) algorithm under a heterogeneous residual variance model is an extension of the iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) method for continuous traits to discrete traits. In contrast to mixture model-based expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm, the GEE algorithm can well detect quantitative trait locus (QTL), especially large effect QTLs located in large marker intervals in the manner of high computing speed. Based on a single QTL model, however, the GEE algorithm has very limited statistical power to detect multiple QTLs because of ignoring other linked QTLs. In this study, the fast least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) is derived for generalized linear model (GLM) with all possible link functions. Under a heterogeneous residual variance model, the LASSO for GLM is used to iteratively estimate the non-zero genetic effects of those loci over entire genome. The iteratively reweighted LASSO is therefore extended to mapping QTL for discrete traits, such as ordinal, binary, and Poisson traits. The simulated and real data analyses are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method to simultaneously identify multiple QTLs for binary and Poisson traits as examples.     

An empirical Bayes method for estimating epistatic effects of quantitative trait loci

Summary .   The genetic variance of a quantitative trait is often controlled by the segregation of multiple interacting loci. Linear model regression analysis is usually applied to estimating and testing effects of these quantitative trait loci (QTL). Including all the main effects and the effects of interaction (epistatic effects), the dimension of the linear model can be extremely high. Variable selection via stepwise regression or stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) is the common procedure for epistatic effect QTL analysis. These methods are computationally intensive, yet they may not be optimal. The LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) method is computationally more efficient than the above methods. As a result, it has been widely used in regression analysis for large models. However, LASSO has never been applied to genetic mapping for epistatic QTL, where the number of model effects is typically many times larger than the sample size. In this study, we developed an empirical Bayes method (E-BAYES) to map epistatic QTL under the mixed model framework. We also tested the feasibility of using LASSO to estimate epistatic effects, examined the fully Bayesian SSVS, and reevaluated the penalized likelihood (PENAL) methods in mapping epistatic QTL. Simulation studies showed that all the above methods performed satisfactorily well. However, E-BAYES appears to outperform all other methods in terms of minimizing the mean-squared error (MSE) with relatively short computing time. Application of the new method to real data was demonstrated using a barley dataset.     

Bayesian functional mapping of dynamic quantitative traits

Without consideration of other linked QTLs responsible for dynamic trait, original functional mapping based on a single QTL model is not optimal for analyzing multiple dynamic trait loci. Despite that composite functional mapping incorporates the effects of genetic background outside the tested QTL in mapping model, the arbitrary choice of background markers also impact on the power of QTL detection. In this study, we proposed Bayesian functional mapping strategy that can simultaneously identify multiple QTL controlling developmental patterns of dynamic traits over the genome. Our proposed method fits the change of each QTL effect with the time by Legendre polynomial and takes the residual covariance structure into account using the first autoregressive equation. Also, Bayesian shrinkage estimation was employed to estimate the model parameters. Especially, we specify the gamma distribution as the prior for the first-order auto-regressive coefficient, which will guarantee the convergence of Bayesian sampling. Simulations showed that the proposed method could accurately estimate the QTL parameters and had a greater statistical power of QTL detection than the composite functional mapping. A real data analysis of leaf age growth in rice is used for the demonstration of our method. It shows that our Bayesian functional mapping can detect more QTLs as compared to composite functional mapping.     

Genome-wide evaluation for quantitative trait loci under the variance component model

The identity-by-descent (IBD) based variance component analysis is an important method for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) in outbred populations. The interval-mapping approach and various modified versions of it may have limited use in evaluating the genetic variances of the entire genome because they require evaluation of multiple models and model selection. In this study, we developed a multiple variance component model for genome-wide evaluation using both the maximum likelihood (ML) method and the MCMC implemented Bayesian method. We placed one QTL in every few cM on the entire genome and estimated the QTL variances and positions simultaneously in a single model. Genomic regions that have no QTL usually showed no evidence of QTL while regions with large QTL always showed strong evidence of QTL. While the Bayesian method produced the optimal result, the ML method is computationally more efficient than the Bayesian method. Simulation experiments were conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the new methods.     

Fine-Scale Mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci Using Historical Recombinations

With increasing popularity of QTL mapping in economically important animals and experimental species, the need for statistical methodology for fine-scale QTL mapping becomes increasingly urgent. The ability to disentangle several linked QTL depends on the number of recombination events. An obvious approach to increase the recombination events is to increase sample size, but this approach is often constrained by resources. Moreover, increasing the sample size beyond a certain point will not further reduce the length of confidence interval for QTL map locations. The alternative approach is to use historical recombinations. We use analytical methods to examine the properties of fine QTL mapping using historical recombinations that are accumulated through repeated intercrossing from an F(2) population. We demonstrate that, using the historical recombinations, both simple and multiple regression models can reduce significantly the lengths of support intervals for estimated QTL map locations and the variances of estimated QTL map locations. We also demonstrate that, while the simple regression model using historical recombinations does not reduce the variances of the estimated additive and dominant effects, the multiple regression model does. We further determine the power and threshold values for both the simple and multiple regression models. In addition, we calculate the Kullback-Leibler distance and Fisher information for the simple regression model, in the hope to further understand the advantages and disadvantages of using historical recombinations relative to F(2) data.     

Methodologies for segregation analysis and QTL mapping in plants

Most characters of biological interest and economic importance are quantitative traits. To uncover the genetic architecture of quantitative traits, two approaches have become popular in China. One is the establishment of an analytical model for mixed major-gene plus polygenes inheritance and the other the discovery of quantitative trait locus (QTL). Here we review our progress employing these two approaches. First, we proposed joint segregation analysis of multiple generations for mixed major-gene plus polygenes inheritance. Second, we extended the multilocus method of Lander and Green (1987), Jiang and Zeng (1997) to a more generalized approach. Our methodology handles distorted, dominant and missing markers, including the effect of linked segregation distortion loci on the estimation of map distance. Finally, we developed several QTL mapping methods. In the Bayesian shrinkage estimation (BSE) method, we suggested a method to test the significance of QTL effects and studied the effect of the prior distribution of the variance of QTL effect on QTL mapping. To reduce running time, a penalized maximum likelihood method was adopted. To mine novel genes in crop inbred lines generated in the course of normal crop breeding work, three methods were introduced. If a well-documented genealogical history of the lines is available, two-stage variance component analysis and multi-QTL Haseman-Elston regression were suggested; if unavailable, multiple loci in silico mapping was proposed.     

Estimating genetic variance contributed by a quantitative trait locus: A random model approach

Detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL) and estimating QTL variances (represented by the squared QTL effects) are two main goals of QTL mapping and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, there are issues associated with estimated QTL variances and such issues have not attracted much attention from the QTL mapping community. Estimated QTL variances are usually biased upwards due to estimation being associated with significance tests. The phenomenon is called the Beavis effect. However, estimated variances of QTL without significance tests can also be biased upwards, which cannot be explained by the Beavis effect; rather, this bias is due to the fact that QTL variances are often estimated as the squares of the estimated QTL effects. The parameters are the QTL effects and the estimated QTL variances are obtained by squaring the estimated QTL effects. This square transformation failed to incorporate the errors of estimated QTL effects into the transformation. The consequence is biases in estimated QTL variances. To correct the biases, we can either reformulate the QTL model by treating the QTL effect as random and directly estimate the QTL variance (as a variance component) or adjust the bias by taking into account the error of the estimated QTL effect. A moment method of estimation has been proposed to correct the bias. The method has been validated via Monte Carlo simulation studies. The method has been applied to QTL mapping for the 10-week-body-weight trait from an F₂ mouse population.