Proportionate spatial sampling and equal‐time sampling of mobile animals: A dilemma for inferring areal dependence

Abstract Patch or island area is one of the most frequently used variables for inference in conservation biology and biogeography, and is often used in ecological applications. Given that all of these disciplines deal with large spatial scales, exhaustive censusing is not often possible, especially when there are large numbers of patches (e.g. for replication and control purposes). Therefore, data for patches or islands are usually collected by sampling. We argue that if area is to be used as an inferential factor, then the objects under study (i.e. the patches) must be characterized on an areal basis. This necessarily means that fixed‐area sampling is inadequate (e.g. a single standard quadrat or transect set within patches irrespective of the patch area) and that some form of area‐proportionate sampling is needed (e.g. a fixed areal proportion of each patch is surveyed by random allocation of standard quadrats across each patch). However, use of area‐proportionate sampling is not usually dissociated from the increased temporal intensity of sampling that arises from using this approach. The dilemma we see is deciding how much of the area‐specificity of variables such as species richness, rare‐species indices or probabilities of occurrence of individual species is related to the area‐proportionate survey protocol and how much is due to the temporal intensity of surveys. We undertook a study in which we balanced temporal and spatial effects by increasing the time spent surveying smaller patches of vegetation to account for the area‐ratio difference. The estimated species richness of birds of the box–ironbark system of central Victoria, Australia, was found to depend strongly upon area when area‐proportionate sampling alone was performed. When time‐balancing was imposed upon area‐proportionate sampling, the differences between smaller (10‐ha) and larger (40‐ha) areas were much reduced or effectively disappeared. We show that species found in the additional surveys used to conduct the time‐balancing were significantly less abundant than species recorded in area‐proportionate sampling. This effect is probably most severe for mobile animals, but may emerge in other forms of sampling.     

Relationships between spatial configuration of tropical forest patches and woody plant diversity in northeastern Puerto Rico

The destruction and fragmentation of tropical forests are major sources of global biodiversity loss. A better understanding of anthropogenically altered landscapes and their relationships with species diversity and composition is needed in order to protect biodiversity in these environments. The spatial patterns of a landscape may control the ecological processes that shape species diversity and composition. However, there is little information about how plant diversity varies with the spatial configuration of forest patches especially in fragmented tropical habitats. The northeastern part of Puerto Rico provides the opportunity to study the relationships between species richness and composition of woody plants (shrubs and trees) and spatial variables [i.e., patch area and shape, patch isolation, connectivity, and distance to the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF)] in tropical forest patches that have regenerated from pasturelands. The spatial data were obtained from aerial color photographs from year 2000. Each photo interpretation was digitized into a GIS package, and 12 forest patches (24–34 years old) were selected within a study area of 28 km². The woody plant species composition of the patches was determined by a systematic floristic survey. The species diversity (Shannon index) and species richness of woody plants correlated positively with the area and the shape of the forest patch. Larger patches, and patches with more habitat edge or convolution, provided conditions for a higher diversity of woody plants. Moreover, the distance of the forest patches to the LEF, which is a source of propagules, correlated negatively with species richness. Plant species composition was also related to patch size and shape and distance to the LEF. These results indicate that there is a link between landscape structure and species diversity and composition and that patches that have similar area, shape, and distance to the LEF provide similar conditions for the existence of a particular plant community. In addition, forest patches that were closer together had more similarity in woody plant species composition than patches that were farther apart, suggesting that seed dispersal for some species is limited at the scale of 10 km.     

基于斑块的红树林空间演变机理分析方法

现有红树林空间动态分析多是从整体的角度分析其面积的变化情况及其影响因素,着重于面积变化的定量分析和影响因素的定性分析,对其变化的发生途径缺乏深入分析,也不研究其斑块数量的变化动态。由于一定区域范围内的红树林由成百上千甚至更多空间上相互分离的斑块组成,各斑块边界和面积变化动态构成了区域红树林整体的空间分布变化动态,因此,只有深入摸清各个斑块的变化情况及其影响因素,才能对区域红树林整体变化情况作出全面、详细和准确的分析评估。提出了基于斑块的红树林空间演变机理分析方法,首先通过两期高空间分辨率遥感图像提取红树林空间分布信息,在GIS支持下采用叠置分析方法,根据前、后两期各个斑块的空间位置、形状和面积变化情况以及图像表征,逐一分析确定每个斑块变化的主要驱动因子(即变化原因,包括自然过程、围垦、养殖塘和盐田建设、工程建设和人工造林5种)和变化途径(即变化类型,包括稳定、扩张、萎缩、碎化、消失和新增6种),在此基础上构建斑块数量和面积变化的驱动因子-变化途径状态矩阵,通过总驱动量、总驱动率、净驱动量、净驱动率、趋势驱动率、总流量、总流率、净流量、净流率、趋势净流率和作用力等系列指标定量地评估红树林斑块数量和面积的变化动态。该方法不但能够定量地表达了各个驱动因子对红树林斑块数量和面积变化的影响程度,而且能够准确地阐明了红树林斑块数量和面积发生变化的途径,并且还能够准确地反映了每个驱动因子通过何种途径影响斑块数量和面积的变化,实现了红树林空间动态变化分析的定位化、定量化和精确化。     

Patch dynamics of a native grass in relation to the spread of invasive smooth brome (Bromus inermis)

The effects of invasive species on the patch dynamics (establishment, growth, and local extinction) of native species are not well studied, owing to the need for relatively fine-scale data on the distribution of species. Within the prairie pothole region of the United States and Canada, the grass, Bromus inermis (smooth brome) has become established by invading disturbed prairies, and through repeated introductions for soil retention and animal graze. In this study, the impact of smooth brome on the patch dynamics of a dominant native grass species, Spartina pectinata (prairie cordgrass), was assessed using fine-scale (sub-meter) mapping of the distribution of cordgrass and brome in three prairie fragments from 2000 to 2006. Using GIS spatial analyses, we determined that cordgrass patch growth was two times greater in areas not invaded by smooth brome versus areas that were heavily infested with smooth brome. Among sites and time periods, there was a consistent significant negative relationship between the amount of smooth brome surrounding a patch of cordgrass and the growth of that cordgrass patch. The probability of establishment of a new patch of cordgrass averaged 1.3 times higher in areas of low brome coverage (<25%) than areas of high brome coverage (>75%). Conversely, existing cordgrass patches were 7.8 times more likely to go extinct in areas of high than low brome coverage. This is one of only a few field studies to provide evidence of the negative impact of smooth brome on native flora and hopefully will serve as justification for the development of a formal management plan to limit the distribution of this species in tallgrass prairie ecosystems.     

Quantitative predictions for patch occupancy of capercaillie in fragmented habitats

A major conclusion of studying metapopulation biology is that species conservation should favor regional rather than local population persistence. Regional persistence is tightly linked to size, spatial configuration and quality of habitat patches. Hence it is important for the management of endangered species that priority patches can be identified. We developed a predictive model of patch occupancy by capercaillie, a threatened grouse species, based on a single snapshot of data. We used logistic regression to predict patch occupancy as a function of patch size, isolation, connectivity, relative altitude, and biogeographical area. The probability of a patch being occupied increased with patch size and increasing altitude, and decreased with increasing distance to the next occupied patch. Patch size was the most important predictor although occupied patches varied considerably in size. Our model only uses data on the number, size and spatial configuration of habitat patches. It is a useful tool to designate priority areas for conservation, i.e. large core patches with high resilience in habitat quality, smaller island‐patches that still have high probability of being inhabited or becoming recolonised, and patches functioning as “stepping stones”. If capercaillie is to be preserved, habitat suitability needs to be maintained in a functional network of patches that account for size and inter‐patch distance thresholds as found in this study. We suggest that similar area‐isolation relationships are valid for almost any region within the distribution range of capercaillie. The thresholds for occupancy are however likely to depend on characteristics of the respective landscape. The outcome of our study emphasises the need for future investigations that explore the relationship between patch occupancy, matrix quality and its resistance to dispersing individuals.     

The spatial pattern and canopy-understory association of trees in a cool temperate,mixed forest in western Japan

The spatial distribution pattern of trees and the association between canopy and understory individuals were examined with reference to the distribution of tree crowns in a cool temperate, mixed forest in Ohdaigahara, western Japan. Line transect and contact sampling methods were used to examine the pattern over various spatial scales. These methods are useful to detect patterns over a large study area. The dominance ofChamaecyparis obtusa on steep slopes forming large patches suggested that the distribution of this species is a consequence of landslides. UnderstoryFagus crenata showed a clumped distribution, and the relative coverage of this species was larger in canopy gaps than under a closed canopy. Understory individuals ofAbies homolepis showed a positive association with canopy trees ofF. crenata but a negative association with conspecific canopy individuals. These patterns suggested thatF. crenata regenerates in canopy gaps and is replaced byA. homolepis. The dynamics of these two species are consistent with the process of gap dynamics. The effects of both small- and large-scale disturbance must be evaluated to understand the mechanisms of patch formation and the coexistence of forest tree species.     

Lawn parameters influencing abundance and distribution of the hairy chinch bug (Hemiptera: Lygaeidae)

Management of lawns that promotes conditions detrimental to the development of insect pests may represent a valuable environmentally benign turfgrass management strategy. In the cool-humid region of Quebec, Canada, we investigated 45 lawns infested with hairy chinch bug, Blissus leucopterus hirtus Montandon, to identify lawn parameters related to its distribution and abundance. Kentucky bluegrass, creeping bentgrass, and perennial ryegrass, respectively, accounted for 55.8, 19.6, and 9.3% of the grass species. Chinch bug population density was associated positively with abundance of perennial ryegrass, whereas it was marginally negatively related with the abundance of creeping bentgrass. An index of the severity of chinch bug infestation was obtained for each lawn by combining estimates of number of infested patches per lawn, average size of the patches, and chinch bug number per patch. The index was associated positively with abundance of Kentucky bluegrass and perennial ryegrass. There was evidence that abundance of creeping bentgrass was associated negatively with the number of infested patches per lawn, area of the patches, and number of chinch bugs within those patches. The number of infested patches increased, whereas patch area and chinch bug number per patch tended to decrease, when broad-leaf weeds were more abundant on a lawn. No significant relationship was found between thatch thickness and patterns of chinch bug abundance and distribution. These results suggest that management of lawns to respectively increase and decrease abundance of creeping bentgrass and perennial ryegrass could facilitate control of hairy chinch bug populations in cool-humid regions.     

Composition and diversity of herbaceous patches in woody vegetation: The effects of grazing,soil seed bank,patch spatial properties and scale

Herbaceous plants contribute much to plant diversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems though mostly occupying relatively small patches within the dense woody vegetation. While studying species diversity in the herbaceous patches, we hypothesized that grazing, soil seed bank, and spatial properties of the patch affect plant diversity and composition at different spatial scales. The study site was in an LTER site located in the Mediterranean region in north Israel. We determined herbaceous species composition in: (1) randomly sampled quadrats in herbaceous patches in grazed and un-grazed plots; (2) soil seed bank samples taken from the same patches and germinated under optimal greenhouse conditions; (3) quadrats in the same patches sown with a homogenous mixture of local soil samples. Using GIS methods, we determined small-scale spatial characteristics of the herbaceous patches. Alpha and beta diversities were calculated at the patch and plot scales using Shannon's entropy H. Grazing increased alpha diversity of local untreated seed bank samples but decreased alpha diversity of the artificial homogenous soil seed bank mixture at both patch and plot scales. Positive relation between alpha diversity and patch area was detected only under grazing. Grazing increased beta diversity in all three treatments at the patch scale. Grazing decreased the similarity in species composition between above-ground vegetation and soil seed bank. The results indicate that moderate cattle-grazing affects species diversity in the herbaceous patches within the dense maquis. This effect is scale-dependent, and interacts with the effects of soil seed bank and patch spatial-properties: without grazing soil seed bank plays a more important role than patch spatial properties, but under grazing the size and the accessibility of the patch are more important in the determination of herbaceous species composition.     

基于智能体模型的青岛市林地生态格局评价与优化

设计并在GIS平台上开发了基于智能体的生态格局评价模型,以青岛市及周边地区林地为研究对象,分析不同林地空间格局及生态网络保护框架对于物种生存与扩散的影响.结果表明,与现状相比,不同等级的生态网络框架对物种种群数量与物种迁移都有明显提升,且等级越高的生态网络框架提升作用越明显.然而仅仅依靠生态网络框架不足以使研究区域林地系统形成功能上的相互连通,因此,在分析研究区域现状土地利用格局基础上,提出与湿地系统结合,在胶州湾周围及大沽河干流地区增加林地的空间布局.通过模型模拟分析,发现优化后的林地空间格局结合生态网络框架能有效提升林地之间的物种扩散.基于模拟结果,为研究区林地生态格局构建提出如下建议:(1)保证现有的规模较大的林地不被破坏;(2)青岛市中部湿地系统可以作为新增林地的理想区域;(3)生态网络框架可作为青岛市建立城市组团间生态间隔的空间参考.     

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of a Restored Population of Oryza rufipogon in Huli Marsh, South China

Studying the process of population restoration is helpful for managing and preserving endangered species. A population of Oryza rufipogon (wild rice), an endangered species, was reintroduced in 1993 into Huli Marsh. We conducted a detailed survey over a 5‐year period (1997–2001) to evaluate the present status of the population and to further our understanding of its habitat requirements and the population model. The population was surveyed using 2 × 2–m quadrats in mid‐September of each year. In total, 2,683 quadrats were surveyed covering the whole O. rufipogon reserve during each survey. The population's spatial distribution was mapped, and the maps were used to examine the relationship between patch replacement and water depth. The individual number of O. rufipogon increased steadily from 1993 to 2001. The patch number, patch area, mean patch size, and largest patch size increased over this time period, and Korcak patchiness exponents decreased. On average, 83% of the patches persisted from one year to the next. There was a significant positive correlation between the initial patch size and the size the following year. The probability of patch disappearance decreased as patch size increased. Fifty‐eight percent of the patches were located at water depths between 20 and 30 cm. Water depth had no significant effect on the patch transition from O. rufipogon to other species. The loss and gain of O. rufipogon patches were statistically correlated with the patch areas in different water depths. Our results show that the population of O. rufipogon can successfully be reintroduced to the original habitat after appropriate environmental conditions have been restored. We recommend the following transplantation practices: transplant many smaller patches rather than a few larger patches, use transplant patch sizes of at least 20 m², and transplant into sites vegetated with species with different regeneration niches from the transplanted species.     

Temporal patch occupancy dynamics of the Siberian flying squirrel in a boreal forest landscape

Ability to predict species distribution in a landscape is of crucial importance for natural resource management and species conservation. Therefore, the understanding of species habitat requirements and spatio-temporal dynamics in occurrence is needed. We examined patch occupancy patterns of the Siberian flying squirrel Pteromys volans in northern Finland across a seven year study period. Forest patches dominated by mature spruce ( Picea abies ) in a study area (375 km²) were surveyed to monitor the presence or absence of the flying squirrel. The patch occupancy pattern was dynamic: about half of the habitat patches were occupied at least once during the study period and more patches were colonised than were abandoned. Patches that were continuously occupied (i.e. occupied during all sample periods) were typically of high quality (based on habitat and landscape characteristics), continuously unoccupied patches were usually of low quality, and intermediate quality patches were occupied intermittently. The variables explaining patch occupancy were similar each year, and a statistical model based on data from the year 2000 also predicted occupancy in 2004 with similar accuracy. However, data from a single survey were inadequate for identifying patches used intermittently by flying squirrels. Despite inconsistent occupancy, these patches may be important for the local persistence of flying squirrels. The dynamic occupancy pattern may thus affect estimates of suitable habitat area and identification of functional patch networks for landscape planning. These results emphasise the need for follow-up studies to better understand population patterns and processes in time.     

Remote sensing‐based landscape indicators for the evaluation of threatened‐bird habitats in a tropical forest

Avian species persistence in a forest patch is strongly related to the degree of isolation and size of a forest patch and the vegetation structure within a patch and its matrix are important predictors of bird habitat suitability. A combination of space‐borne optical (Landsat), ALOS‐PALSAR (radar), and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data was used for assessing variation in forest structure across forest patches that had undergone different levels of forest degradation in a logged forest—agricultural landscape in Southern Laos. The efficacy of different remote sensing (RS) data sources in distinguishing forest patches that had different seizes, configurations, and vegetation structure was examined. These data were found to be sensitive to the varying levels of degradation of the different patch categories. Additionally, the role of local scale forest structure variables (characterized using the different RS data and patch area) and landscape variables (characterized by distance from different forest patches) in influencing habitat preferences of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red listed birds found in the study area was examined. A machine learning algorithm, MaxEnt, was used in conjunction with these data and field collected geographical locations of the avian species to identify the factors influencing habitat preference of the different bird species and their suitable habitats. Results show that distance from different forest patches played a more important role in influencing habitat suitability for the different avian species than local scale factors related to vegetation structure and health. In addition to distance from forest patches, LiDAR‐derived forest structure and Landsat‐derived spectral variables were important determinants of avian habitat preference. The models derived using MaxEnt were used to create an overall habitat suitability map (HSM) which mapped the most suitable habitat patches for sustaining all the avian species. This work also provides insight that retention of forest patches, including degraded and isolated forest patches in addition to large contiguous forest patches, can facilitate bird species retention within tropical agricultural landscapes. It also demonstrates the effective use of RS data in distinguishing between forests that have undergone varying levels of degradation and identifying the habitat preferences of different bird species. Practical conservation management planning endeavors can use such data for both landscape scale monitoring and habitat mapping.     

Influence of edaphic factors on the spatial structure of inland halophytic communities: a case study in China

Abstract. In order to understand the influence of edaphic factors on the spatial structure of inland halophytic plant communities, a 2.6 km² study site, located on the lower fringe of the alluvial fan of the Hutubi River, in an arid region of China, was sampled and mapped. 105 patches were found to be homogeneous in species composition. Plant species and their coverage were recorded in each patch. 45 patches were randomly selected for the measurement of edaphic variables. A map with quadrat locations and boundaries of patches was digitized into a GIS and related to the vegetation and edaphic data matrices. CCA was used to evaluate the relative importance of edaphic factors in explaining the variation of the species assemblages and to identify the ecological preferences of species. The spatial structure of the communities and the main edaphic factors were analyzed using correlograms, Mantel correlograms and clustering under constraint of spatial contiguity. Gradient analysis showed that there are two distinct vegetation gradients in the study area, one of which is determined mainly by soil moisture (determined by depth to the water table), and the other by soil salinity (determined by electrical conductivity and hydrolytic alkalinity of the first soil layer). However, spatial analyses showed that at the sampling scale the halophytic communities in the study area are structured along one main spatial gradient determined by the water table level. Similar spatial autocorrelation structures between the factors related to the first soil layer and the communities, given our sampling scale, could not be detected. Our results suggest that the relative importance of the effects of different edaphic factors on the spatial structure of halophytic communities is scale-dependent. The partitioning of species variation indicates that in addition to edaphic factors, other factors, such as biotic interactions, may play an important role in structuring these communities.     

黄土区农业景观空间格局分析

景观空间格局分析是景观生态学研究的核心问题之一。本文用地理信息系统,分维分析和统计分析相结合,以１∶１万土地利用现状图为基础,选取斑块大小、分维数、斑块伸长指数、多样性、优势度、相对丰富度、破碎度等指标,陕北米脂县泉家沟流域农业景观的空间格局。结果显示,乔木林地、坡耕地、果园、草地和梯田农地的分维数较低,坝地、水库、灌溉农田、居信用地和灌木林地的人维数较高,斑块形状较为复杂。随着斑块面积的增加,农     

Plant biodiversity patterns along a climatic gradient and across protected areas in West Africa

Knowledge of spatial patterns of biological diversity is fundamental for ecological and biogeographical analyses and for priority setting in nature conservation, particularly in West Africa where the existing high biodiversity is increasingly threatened by human activities. The maximum entropy approach was used to model the geographic distribution of 3,393 vascular plant species at a spatial resolution of 0.0833°. Species richness decreases along temperature and precipitation gradients with high species numbers in the south and lower numbers towards the north of the transect. All centres of plant species diversity are confined to humid areas in concordance with the high positive correlation between species richness and rainfall which appears to be the most important delimiter for the distribution ranges of many species in the area. The effectiveness of the existing protected areas at regional and national levels is investigated based on the proportion of species covered. Considering the whole study area, 95% of all species are covered by protected areas according to their distribution ranges. However, the proportion of species covered is considerably lower for some countries such as Benin and Togo. Our results could provide guidance for essential land use management interventions to decision‐makers and conservationists in the region.     

Thyme and isolation for the Sinai baton blue butterfly (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudophilotes sinaicus</Emphasis>)

The distribution of the narrowly endemic butterfly Pseudophilotes sinaicus (Lycaenidae) was studied. Potential habitat within its range was first located and then the quality of that habitat assessed. Degree of shelter, diversity of plant species, and resource area of an individual food plant (Thymus decussatus) all affected habitat quality and together were used to develop an index of habitat suitability applicable to each site. The butterfly's distribution was then studied within the identified network of suitable habitat patches: isolated patches with a small resource area were least likely to contain butterflies. Population size in a patch (as opposed merely to patch occupancy) was affected by resource area and the quality of habitat within that patch. Metapopulation processes and variation in habitat quality therefore appear to combine to describe the distribution of patches occupied by P. sinaicus and their population sizes. This finding provides insights into some of the processes operating on an endemic species throughout its geographical range and has important implications for the conservation of this rare butterfly.     

Support for the habitat amount hypothesis from a global synthesis of species density studies

Decades of research suggest that species richness depends on spatial characteristics of habitat patches, especially their size and isolation. In contrast, the habitat amount hypothesis predicts that (1) species richness in plots of fixed size (species density) is more strongly and positively related to the amount of habitat around the plot than to patch size or isolation; (2) habitat amount better predicts species density than patch size and isolation combined, (3) there is no effect of habitat fragmentation per se on species density and (4) patch size and isolation effects do not become stronger with declining habitat amount. Data on eight taxonomic groups from 35 studies around the world support these predictions. Conserving species density requires minimising habitat loss, irrespective of the configuration of the patches in which that habitat is contained.     

An open spatial capture–recapture model for estimating density,movement, and population dynamics from line‐transect surveys

The purpose of many wildlife population studies is to estimate density, movement, or demographic parameters. Linking these parameters to covariates, such as habitat features, provides additional ecological insight and can be used to make predictions for management purposes. Line‐transect surveys, combined with distance sampling methods, are often used to estimate density at discrete points in time, whereas capture–recapture methods are used to estimate movement and other demographic parameters. Recently, open population spatial capture–recapture models have been developed, which simultaneously estimate density and demographic parameters, but have been made available only for data collected from a fixed array of detectors and have not incorporated the effects of habitat covariates. We developed a spatial capture–recapture model that can be applied to line‐transect survey data by modeling detection probability in a manner analogous to distance sampling. We extend this model to a) estimate demographic parameters using an open population framework and b) model variation in density and space use as a function of habitat covariates. The model is illustrated using simulated data and aerial line‐transect survey data for North Atlantic right whales in the southeastern United States, which also demonstrates the ability to integrate data from multiple survey platforms and accommodate differences between strata or demographic groups. When individuals detected from line‐transect surveys can be uniquely identified, our model can be used to simultaneously make inference on factors that influence spatial and temporal variation in density, movement, and population dynamics.     

Patch dynamics in a landscape modified by ecosystem engineers

Ecosystem engineers, organisms that modify the environment, have the potential to dramatically alter ecosystem structure and function at large spatial scales. The degree to which ecosystem engineering produces large-scale effects is, in part, dependent on the dynamics of the patches that engineers create. Here we develop a set of models that links the population dynamics of ecosystem engineers to the dynamics of the patches that they create. We show that the relative abundance of different patch types in an engineered landscape is dependent upon the production of successful colonists from engineered patches and the rate at which critical resources are depleted by engineers and then renewed. We also consider the effects of immigration from either outside the system or from engineers that are present in non-engineered patches, and the effects of engineers that can recolonize patches before they are fully recovered on the steady state distribution of different patch types. We use data collected on the population dynamics of a model engineer, the beaver, to estimate the per-patch production rate of new colonists, the decay rate of engineered patches, and the recovery rate of abandoned patches. We use these estimated parameters as a baseline to determine the effects of varying parameters on the distribution of different patch types. We suggest a number of hypotheses that derive from model predictions and that could serve as tests of the model.     

Community context and the influence of non-indigenous species on juvenile salmon survival in a Columbia River reservoir

Non-indigenous species (NIS) have been called biological pollutants, which implies that reducing their numbers should reduce negative impacts. To test this hypothesis, we used food web models, parameterized with data from field studies, to ask how reducing the number of NIS co-occurring with endangered salmon would affect salmon mortality. Our analyses indicate that predation on Upper Columbia River spring chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss juveniles was affected very little by NIS reduction. The effects of removing NIS were partly or totally offset by indirect food web interactions, and were subtle compared to effects of native predator management. We predict that the most effective way of reducing predation on salmon smolts will involve managing native predators and targeted removals of specific NIS. Minimizing impact of established NIS thus entails not only reducing NIS prevalence, but also considering background management practices and community context.