Effects of honey bees on colonies of Exoneura asimillima,an Australian native bee

Honey bee hives were placed, during two consecutive summers, in an experimental site which contained natural and artificially placed colonies of Exoneura asimillima, a semi-social, native bee. Two classes of colonies were studied: founders, and established colonies. Nests and contents were collected from an experimental site and three control sites following several months of exposure at the experimental site to the apiary honey bee population. Nest contents were analysed for differences among sites in colony population parameters which could have been caused by resource competition with introduced honey bees. Colony founding and overall colony survival were also considered. During the first season, the average number of large larvae plus prepupae per colony was significantly higher in the experimental site than in the control site. This difference could, however, have been the result of a two-week gap in sampling all the sites. All nest parameters showed high variability and there were no other significant differences between the two kinds of site. In the experimental site during the second season there were, relative to the control sites, significantly fewer total numbers of adult males and females in established nests and in all nests combined, significantly more immatures of all stages in founder nests and significantly lower adult male:female ratio. Although preliminary in nature, the data suggest that, in the experimental plots, E. asimillima showed: (i) increased adult emigration, (ii) increased brood rearing success, and/or (iii) relatively later colony founding, compared to the three controls. The possibility of resource competiton with honey bees causing the observed changes is discussed, along with alternative explanations.     

Evidence for emerging parasites and pathogens influencing outbreaks of stress-related diseases like chalkbrood

In agriculture, honey bees play a critical role as commercial pollinators of crop monocultures which depend on insect pollination. Hence, the demise of honey bee colonies in Europe, USA, and Asia caused much concern and initiated many studies and research programmes aiming at elucidating the factors negatively affecting honey bee health and survival. Most of these studies look at individual factors related to colony losses. In contrast, we here present our data on the interaction of pathogens and parasites in honey bee colonies. We performed a longitudinal cohort study over 6 years by closely monitoring 220 honey bee colonies kept in 22 apiaries (ten randomly selected colonies per apiary). Observed winter colony losses varied between 4.8% and 22.4%; lost colonies were replaced to ensure a constant number of monitored colonies over the study period. Data on mite infestation levels, infection with viruses, Nosema apis and Nosema ceranae, and recorded outbreaks of chalkbrood were continuously collected. We now provide statistical evidence (i) that Varroa destructor infestation in summer is related to DWV infections in autumn, (ii) that V. destructor infestation in autumn is related to N. apis infection in the following spring, and most importantly (iii) that chalkbrood outbreaks in summer are related to N. ceranae infection in the preceding spring and to V. destructor infestation in the same season. These highly significant links between emerging parasites/pathogens and established pathogens need further experimental proof but they already illustrate the complexity of the host–pathogen-interactions in honey bee colonies.     

Spatial distribution of Vespa velutina individuals hunting at domestic honeybee hives： heterogeneity at a local scale

Since its recent introduction into Europe, the yellow-legged hornet, Vespa velutina, has become a major predator of the domestic honeybee, Apis mellifera, but little is known about its hunting behavior. We studied V. velutina hunting behavior by a capture- mark-recapture procedure in an experimental apiary. A total of 360 hornets were captured and tagged, and we determined： （i） the number of hornets visiting the apiary and the changes in time, （ii） the average number of individual visits per half-day and the time elapsed between consecutive recaptures, and （iii） the individual and global distribution of the hornets in the apiary. More than 50% of the marked hornets were recaptured at least once, this increased to 74% in considering the first marked individuals. We estimated 350 hornets visiting the patch daily with at least 1 visit per half-day. The number of marked hornets decreased over time while the number of unmarked ones increased, suggesting a turnover of individuals. The reduction of the delay between consecutive visits indicates that hornets became more efficient over time. Most of the hornets （88%） were recaptured in front of different hives but, overall, the global distribution was aggregative. Hornets were mainly recaptured in front of 1 hive which was neither the smallest nor the biggest colony, suggesting that the major cue used by hornets is not the amount of food. We hypothesize that the defensive behavior of the honeybee colony could explain our results which may be promising to further studies.     

Distribution of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Paenibacillus larvae</Emphasis> Spores Among Adult Honey Bees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera</Emphasis>) and the Relationship with Clinical Symptoms of American Foulbrood

Knowledge of the distribution of Paenibacillus larvae spores, the causative agent of American foulbrood (AFB), among individual adult honey bees is crucial for determining the appropriate number of adult bees to include in apiary composite samples when screening for diseased colonies. To study spore distribution at the individual bee level, 500 honey bees were collected from different parts of eight clinically diseased colonies and individually analyzed for P. larvae. From the brood chamber and from the super, bees were randomly collected and individually put in Eppendorf vials. The samples were frozen as soon as possible after collection. Concurrently with sampling, each colony was visually inspected for clinical symptoms of AFB. The number of clinically diseased cells in the colony was visually estimated. All samples were cultured in the laboratory for P. larvae. The results demonstrate that the spores are not randomly distributed among the bees; some bees have much higher spore loads than others. It is also clear that as the proportion of contaminated bees increase, the number of spores from each positive bee also increases. The data also demonstrated a relationship between the number of clinically diseased cells and the proportion of positive bees in individual colonies. This relationship was used to develop a mathematical formula for estimating the minimum number of bees in a sample to detect clinical disease. The formula takes into account the size of the apiary and the degree of certainty with which one aims to discover clinical symptoms. Calculations using the formula suggest that adult bee samples at the colony level will detect light AFB infections with a high probability. However, the skewed spore distribution of the adult bees makes composite sampling at the apiary level more problematic, if the aim of the sampling is to locate lightly infected individual colonies within apiaries. The results suggest that false-negative culturing results from composite samples of adult bees from individual colonies with clinical symptoms of AFB are highly improbable. However, if single colonies have light infections in large apiaries, the dilution effect from uncontaminated bees from healthy colonies on the positive bees from diseased colonies may yield false-negative results at the apiary level.     

Efficacy of modified hive entrances and a bottom screen device for controlling Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) infestations in Apis mellifera (Hymenoptera: Apidae) colonies

This study was designed to test whether hive entrances reduced with polyvinyl chloride pipe reduce the ingress of Aethina tumida Murray into Apis mellifera L. colonies and whether screen-mesh bottom boards alleviate side effects associated with restricted entrances. Forty-eight colonies distributed equally between two locations each received one of six experimental treatments: 1) conventional solid bottom board and open entrance, 2) ventilated bottom board and open entrance, 3) conventional bottom and 1.9-cm-i.d. pipe entrance, 4) conventional bottom and 3.8-cm pipe entrance, 5) screen bottom and 1.9-cm pipe entrance, and 6) screen bottom and 3.8-cm pipe entrance. Results were inconsistent between apiaries. In apiary 1, colonies with 3.8-cm pipe entrances had fewer A. tuzmida than colonies with open entrances, but this benefit was not apparent in apiary 2. Pipe entrances tended to reduce colony and brood production in both apiaries, and these losses were only partly mitigated with the addition of screened bottom boards. Pipe entrances had no measurable liability concerning colony thermoregulation. There were significantly fewer frames of adult A. mellifera in colonies with 3.8- or 1.9-cm pipe entrances compared with open entrances but more in colonies with screens. There were more frames of pollen in colonies with open or 3.8-cm pipe entrances than 1.9-cm entrances. We conclude that the efficacy of reduced hive entrances in reducing ingress of A. tumida remains uncertain due to observed differences between apiaries. Furthermore, there were side effects associated with restricted entrances that could be only partly mitigated with screened bottom boards.     

Pitfalls of heterogeneous processes for phylogenetic reconstruction

Different genes often have different phylogenetic histories. Even within regions having the same phylogenetic history, the mutation rates often vary. We investigate the prospects of phylogenetic reconstruction when all the characters are generated from the same tree topology, but the branch lengths vary (with possibly different tree shapes). Furthering work of Kolaczkowski and Thornton (2004, Nature 431: 980-984) and Chang (1996, Math. Biosci. 134: 189-216), we show examples where maximum likelihood (under a homogeneous model) is an inconsistent estimator of the tree. We then explore the prospects of phylogenetic inference under a heterogeneous model. In some models, there are examples where phylogenetic inference under any method is impossible - despite the fact that there is a common tree topology. In particular, there are nonidentifiable mixture distributions, i.e., multiple topologies generate identical mixture distributions. We address which evolutionary models have nonidentifiable mixture distributions and prove that the following duality theorem holds for most DNA substitution models. The model has either: (i) nonidentifiability - two different tree topologies can produce identical mixture distributions, and hence distinguishing between the two topologies is impossible; or (ii) linear tests - there exist linear tests which identify the common tree topology for character data generated by a mixture distribution. The theorem holds for models whose transition matrices can be parameterized by open sets, which includes most of the popular models, such as Tamura-Nei and Kimura's 2-parameter model. The duality theorem relies on our notion of linear tests, which are related to Lake's linear invariants.     

Climate change scenarios and models yield conflicting predictions about the future risk of an invasive species in North America

• 1 The pea leafminer Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an invasive species in North America and a serious economic pest on a wide variety of crops. We developed a bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) for this species and examined the envelope's potential location in North America under various future climates.
• 2 We compared the future bioclimatic envelopes for L. huidobrensis using either simple scenarios comprising uniform changes in temperature/precipitation or climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Our simple scenarios were: (i) an increase of 0.1°C per degree in latitude with a 20% increase in summer precipitation and a 20% decrease in winter precipitation and (ii) an overall increase of 3°C everywhere, also with the same changes in precipitation. For GCM‐modelled climate change, we used the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), each in combination with two scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A2 and B2).
• 3 The BEM results using the simple scenarios were more similar to each other than to the results obtained using GCM projections. The results were also qualitatively different (i.e. spatially different and divergent) depending on which GCM‐scenario combination was used.
• 4 This modelling exercise illustrates that: (i) results using first approximation simple climate change scenarios can give predictions very different from those that use GCM‐modelled climate projections (comprising a result that has worrying implications for empirical impact research) and that (ii) different GCM‐models using the same scenario can give very different results (implying strong model dependency in projected biological impacts).

     

Maternity of emergency queens in the Cape honey bee,Apis mellifera capensis

During reproductive swarming, some workers of the Cape honey bee, Apis mellifera capensis, lay eggs in queen cells, many of which are reared to maturity. However, it is unknown if workers are able to lay in queen cells immediately after queen loss during an episode of emergency queen rearing. In this study we experimentally de‐queened colonies and determined the maternity of larvae and pupae that were reared as queens. This allowed us to determine how soon after queen loss workers contribute to the production of new queens. We were further interested to see if workers would preferentially raise new queens from queen‐laid brood if this was introduced later. We performed our manipulations in two different settings: an apiary setting where colonies were situated close together and a more natural situation in which the colonies were well separated. This allowed us to determine how the vicinity of other colonies affects the presence of parasites. We found that workers do indeed contribute to queen cell production immediately after the loss of their queen, thus demonstrating that some workers either have activated ovaries even when their colony has a queen or are able to activate their ovaries extremely rapidly. Queen‐laid brood introduced days after queen loss was ignored, showing that workers do not prefer to raise new queens from queen brood when given a choice. We also detected non‐natal parasitism of queen cells in both settings. We therefore conclude that some A. m. capensis genotypes specialize in parasitizing queen cells.     

A Bayesian Developmental Approach to Robotic Goal-Based Imitation Learning

A fundamental challenge in robotics today is building robots that can learn new skills by observing humans and imitating human actions. We propose a new Bayesian approach to robotic learning by imitation inspired by the developmental hypothesis that children use self-experience to bootstrap the process of intention recognition and goal-based imitation. Our approach allows an autonomous agent to: (i) learn probabilistic models of actions through self-discovery and experience, (ii) utilize these learned models for inferring the goals of human actions, and (iii) perform goal-based imitation for robotic learning and human-robot collaboration. Such an approach allows a robot to leverage its increasing repertoire of learned behaviors to interpret increasingly complex human actions and use the inferred goals for imitation, even when the robot has very different actuators from humans. We demonstrate our approach using two different scenarios: (i) a simulated robot that learns human-like gaze following behavior, and (ii) a robot that learns to imitate human actions in a tabletop organization task. In both cases, the agent learns a probabilistic model of its own actions, and uses this model for goal inference and goal-based imitation. We also show that the robotic agent can use its probabilistic model to seek human assistance when it recognizes that its inferred actions are too uncertain, risky, or impossible to perform, thereby opening the door to human-robot collaboration.     

Preclinical evaluation of a genetically engineered herpes simplex virus expressing interleukin-12

Herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) mutants that lack the γ(1)34.5 gene are unable to replicate in the central nervous system but maintain replication competence in dividing cell populations, such as those found in brain tumors. We have previously demonstrated that a γ(1)34.5-deleted HSV-1 expressing murine interleukin-12 (IL-12; M002) prolonged survival of immunocompetent mice in intracranial models of brain tumors. We hypothesized that M002 would be suitable for use in clinical trials for patients with malignant glioma. To test this hypothesis, we (i) compared the efficacy of M002 to three other HSV-1 mutants, R3659, R8306, and G207, in murine models of brain tumors, (ii) examined the safety and biodistribution of M002 in the HSV-1-sensitive primate Aotus nancymae following intracerebral inoculation, and (iii) determined whether murine IL-12 produced by M002 was capable of activating primate lymphocytes. Results are summarized as follows: (i) M002 demonstrated superior antitumor activity in two different murine brain tumor models compared to three other genetically engineered HSV-1 mutants; (ii) no significant clinical or magnetic resonance imaging evidence of toxicity was observed following direct inoculation of M002 into the right frontal lobes of A. nancymae; (iii) there was no histopathologic evidence of disease in A. nancymae 1 month or 5.5 years following direct inoculation; and (iv) murine IL-12 produced by M002 activates A. nancymae lymphocytes in vitro. We conclude that the safety and preclinical efficacy of M002 warrants the advancement of a Δγ(1)34.5 virus expressing IL-12 to phase I clinical trials for patients with recurrent malignant glioma.     

Applications of hidden hybrid Markov/semi‐Markov models: from stopover duration to breeding success dynamics

Usually in capture–recapture, a model parameter is time or time since first capture dependent. However, the case where the probability of staying in one state depends on the time spent in that particular state is not rare. Hidden Markov models are not appropriate to manage these situations. A more convenient approach would be to consider models that incorporate semi‐Markovian states which explicitly define the waiting time distribution and have been used in previous biologic studies as a convenient framework for modeling the time spent in a given physiological state. Here, we propose hidden Markovian models that combine several nonhomogeneous Markovian states with one semi‐Markovian state and which (i) are well adapted to imperfect and variable detection and (ii) allow us to consider time, time since first capture, and time spent in one state effects. Implementation details depending on the number of semi‐Markovian states are discussed. From a user's perspective, the present approach enhances the toolbox for analyzing capture–recapture data. We then show the potential of this framework by means of two ecological examples: (i) stopover duration and (ii) breeding success dynamics.     

Evolutionarily unstable fitness maxima and stable fitness minima of continuous traits

Summary We present models of adaptive change in continuous traits for the following situations: (1) adaptation of a single trait within a single population in which the fitness of a given individual depends on the population's mean trait value as well as its own trait value; (2) adaptation of two (or more) traits within a single population; (3) adaptation in two or more interacting species. We analyse a dynamic model of these adaptive scenarios in which the rate of change of the mean trait value is an increasing function of the fitness gradient (i.e. the rate of increase of individual fitness with the individual's trait value). Such models have been employed in evolutionary game theory and are often appropriate both for the evolution of quantitative genetic traits and for the behavioural adjustment of phenotypically plastic traits. The dynamics of the adaptation of several different ecologically important traits can result in characters that minimize individual fitness and can preclude evolution towards characters that maximize individual fitness. We discuss biological circumstances that are likely to produce such adaptive failures for situations involving foraging, predator avoidance, competition and coevolution. The results argue for greater attention to dynamical stability in models of the evolution of continuous traits.     

Adaptive sex allocation in birds: the complexities of linking theory and practice

We review some recent theoretical and empirical developments in the study of sex allocation in birds. The advent of reliable molecular sexing techniques has led to a sharp increase in the number of studies that report biased offspring sex ratios in birds. However, compelling evidence for adaptive sex allocation in birds is still very scant. We argue that there are two reasons for this: (i) standard sex allocation models, very helpful in understanding sex allocation of invertebrates, do not sufficiently take the complexities of bird life histories and physiology into account. Recent theoretical work might bring us a step closer to more realistic models; (ii) experimental field and laboratory studies on sex allocation in birds are scarce. Recent experimental work both in the laboratory and in the field shows that this is a promising approach.     

Comparing Families of Dynamic Causal Models

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data.     

Comparison of Cox Model Methods in A Low-dimensional Setting with Few Events

Prognostic models based on survival data frequently make use of the Cox proportional hazards model. Developing reliable Cox models with few events relative to the number of predictors can be challenging, even in low-dimensional datasets, with a much larger number of observations than variables. In such a setting we examined the performance of methods used to estimate a Cox model, including (i) full model using all available predictors and estimated by standard tech-niques, (ii) backward elimination (BE), (iii) ridge regression, (iv) least absolute shrinkage and selec-tion operator (lasso), and (v) elastic net. Based on a prospective cohort of patients with manifest coronary artery disease (CAD), we performed a simulation study to compare the predictive accu-racy, calibration, and discrimination of these approaches. Candidate predictors for incident cardio-vascular events we used included clinical variables, biomarkers, and a selection of genetic variants associated with CAD. The penalized methods, i.e., ridge, lasso, and elastic net, showed a compara-ble performance, in terms of predictive accuracy, calibration, and discrimination, and outperformed BE and the full model. Excessive shrinkage was observed in some cases for the penalized methods, mostly on the simulation scenarios having the lowest ratio of a number of events to the number of variables. We conclude that in similar settings, these three penalized methods can be used interchangeably. The full model and backward elimination are not recommended in rare event scenarios.     

Demography and Population Dynamics of Massive Coral Communities in Adjacent High Latitude Regions (United Arab Emirates)

Individual massive coral colonies, primarily faviids and poritids, from three distinct assemblages within the southeastern Arabian Gulf and northwestern Gulf of Oman (United Arab Emirates) were studied from 2006–2009. Annual photographic censuses of approximately 2000 colonies were used to describe the demographics (size class frequencies, abundance, area cover) and population dynamics under “normal” environmental conditions. Size class transitions included growth, which occurred in 10–20% of the colonies, followed in decending order by partial mortality (3–16%), colony fission (<5%) and ramet fusion (<3%). Recruitment and whole colony mortality rates were low (<0.7 colonies/m²) with minimal interannual variation. Transition matrices indicated that the Arabian Gulf assemblages have declining growth rates (λ<1) whereas the massive coral population is stable (λ = 1) in the Gulf of Oman. Projection models indicated that (i) the Arabian Gulf population and area cover declines would be exacerbated under 10-year and 16-year disturbance scenarios as the vital rates do not allow for recovery to pre-disturbance levels during these timeframes, and (ii) the Gulf of Oman assemblage could return to its pre-disturbance area cover but its overall population size would not fully recover under the same scenarios.     

Polymorphism in multiallelic migration–selection models with dominance

The evolution of the gene frequencies at a single multiallelic locus under the joint action of migration and viability selection with dominance is investigated. The monoecious, diploid population is subdivided into finitely many panmictic colonies that exchange adult migrants independently of genotype. Underdominance and overdominance are excluded. If the degree of dominance is deme independent for every pair of alleles, then under the Levene model, the qualitative evolution of the gene frequencies (i.e., the existence and stability of the equilibria) is the same as without dominance. In particular: (i) the number of demes is a generic upper bound on the number of alleles present at equilibrium; (ii) there exists exactly one stable equilibrium, and it is globally attracting; and (iii) if there exists an internal equilibrium, it is globally asymptotically stable. Analytic examples demonstrate that if either the Levene model does not apply or the degree of dominance is deme dependent, then the above results can fail. A complete global analysis of weak migration and weak selection on a recessive allele in two demes is presented.     

Modelling of microbial processes that govern degradation of organic substrates in soil, with special reference to pesticides

We tried to develop deterministic models for kinetics of 2,4-D breakdown in the soil based on the following considerations: (i) at low concentrations degradation results from maintenance consumption by a large fraction of the soil microbial population; (ii) at high concentration in addition to the maintenance consumption there is a growth-associated carbon incorporation by a small specific microbial population. Values for the biokinetic parameters are consistent with those commonly found in the literature. Comparison between observed and simulated curves suggests that a non-negligible part of the pesticidal carbon exists as microbial by-products.     

Epidemic and demographic interaction in the spread of potentially fatal diseases in growing populations.

The spread of a potentially fatal infectious disease is considered in a host population that would increase exponentially in the absence of the disease. Taking into account how the effective contact rate C(N) depends on the population size N, the model demonstrates that demographic and epidemiological conclusions depend crucially on the properties of the contact function C. Conditions are given for the following scenarios to occur: (i) the disease spreads at a lower rate than the populations grows and does not modify the population growth rate: (ii) the disease initially spreads at a faster rate than the population grows and lowers the population growth rate in the long run and the following three subscenarios are possible: (iia) the population still grows exponentially, but at a slower rate; (iib) population growth is limited, but the population size does not decay; (iic) population increase is converted into population decrease.