A Support Tool for Air Pollution Health Risk Management in Emerging Countries: A Case in Brazil

This study evaluated the health risk due to air pollution in São Paulo State, Brazil, comparing Brazil's standards and the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. New methodology was applied considering, as hazard parameters, the maximum average concentrations of SO₂, NO₂, O₃, CO, and PM₁₀ from 2007 to 2011. As exposure parameters, population density and location sensitivity were considered. A health risk index based on fuzzy logic was performed to integrate the selected parameters, giving the likelihood of reaching different risk levels. Data gathering and spatial representation of parameters and risk scores were performed by means of geographic information system (GIS). Highest values of risk were observed in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo and near the cities of Cubatão and Piracicaba, associated to vehicular and industrial emissions and sugar cane burning. Discussions about the need to revise national air quality standards have intensified over the past years. Generally, indices used for air quality do not consider the population exposed. This study showed the integration of GIS with fuzzy logic methodology to be a useful tool for health risk assessment. When evaluating the risk, exposure parameters must be intrinsically considered to enhance the importance of population vulnerability when assessing environmental problems, especially in emerging economies.     

Leaf temperature of soybean grown under elevated CO2 increases Aphis glycines (Hemiptera: Aphididae) population growth

Abstract Plants grown under elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) experience physiological changes that influence their suitability as food for insects. To determine the effects of living on soybean (Glycine max Linnaeus) grown under elevated CO₂, population growth of the soybean aphid (Aphis glycines Matsumura) was determined at the SoyFACE research site at the University of Illinois, Urbana‐Champaign, Illinois, USA, grown under elevated (550 μL/L) and ambient (370 μL/L) levels of CO₂. Growth of aphid populations under elevated CO₂ was significantly greater after 1 week, with populations attaining twice the size of those on plants grown under ambient levels of CO₂. Soybean leaves grown under elevated levels of CO₂ were previously demonstrated at SoyFACE to have increased leaf temperature caused by reduced stomatal conductance. To separate the increased leaf temperature from other effects of elevated CO₂, air temperature was lowered while the CO₂ level was increased, which lowered overall leaf temperatures to those measured for leaves grown under ambient levels of CO₂. Aphid population growth on plants grown under elevated CO₂ and reduced air temperature was not significantly greater than on plants grown under ambient levels of CO₂. By increasing Glycine max leaf temperature, elevated CO₂ may increase populations of Aphis glycines and their impact on crop productivity.     

Obesity and the relation between joint exposure to ambient air pollutants and incident type 2 diabetes: A cohort study in UK Biobank

BackgroundAir pollution has been related to incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). We assessed the joint association of various air pollutants with the risk of T2D and examined potential modification by obesity status and genetic susceptibility on the relationship.Methods and findingsA total of 449,006 participants from UK Biobank free of T2D at baseline were included. Of all the study population, 90.9% were white and 45.7% were male. The participants had a mean age of 56.6 (SD 8.1) years old and a mean body mass index (BMI) of 27.4 (SD 4.8) kg/m². Ambient air pollutants, including particulate matter (PM) with diameters ≤2.5 μm (PM_2.5), between 2.5 μm and 10 μm (PM_2.5–10), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and nitric oxide (NO) were measured. An air pollution score was created to assess the joint exposure to the 4 air pollutants. During a median of 11 years follow-up, we documented 18,239 incident T2D cases. The air pollution score was significantly associated with a higher risk of T2D. Compared to the lowest quintile of air pollution score, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for T2D was 1.05 (0.99 to 1.10, p = 0.11), 1.06 (1.00 to 1.11, p = 0.051), 1.09 (1.03 to 1.15, p = 0.002), and 1.12 (1.06 to 1.19, p < 0.001) for the second to fifth quintile, respectively, after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, genetic factors, and other covariates. In addition, we found a significant interaction between the air pollution score and obesity status on the risk of T2D (p-interaction < 0.001). The observed association was more pronounced among overweight and obese participants than in the normal-weight people. Genetic risk score (GRS) for T2D or obesity did not modify the relationship between air pollution and risk of T2D. Key study limitations include unavailable data on other potential T2D-related air pollutants and single-time measurement on air pollutants.ConclusionsWe found that various air pollutants PM_2.5, PM_2.5–10, NO_2, and NO, individually or jointly, were associated with an increased risk of T2D in the population. The stratified analyses indicate that such associations were more strongly associated with T2D risk among those with higher adiposity.

Xiang Li and co-workers study the potential influence of obesity on associations between air pollutants and incidence of type 2 diabetes.     

Air Passive Sampling for the Screening of Inhalation Risks of POPs Near an Incineration Plant

The use of passive air samplers (PAS) in recent years to monitor the occurrence of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in air has been increasing, not only globally, but also at regional and/or local scales. The present study was aimed at analyzing the airborne concentrations of the POPs: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) in Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain). Mean air levels of PCBs, PBDEs, and PCNs were 44.1, 65.0, and 6.65 pg/m³, respectively. No differences were noted according to the distance or direction from the plant for any chemical. Furthermore, this information was used to estimate the air inhalation of POPs for the local population. Environmental exposure to POPs through air accounted for only <2% of the total when compared with the dietary intake. The overall results indicate that the MSWI here assessed does not mean a relevant increase on human health risks derived from inhalation of POPs. PAS can also be utilized for human health risk assessment studies, being also suitable tools to control the environmental burden of non-regulated chemicals, for which no emission thresholds have yet been derived.     

The Asian Games,air pollution and birth outcomes in South China: An instrumental variable approach

We estimate the effects of air-pollution exposure on low birthweight, birthweight, and prematurity risk in South China, for all expectant mothers and by maternal age group and child sex. We do so by exploiting exogenous improvement in air quality during the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games, when strict regulations were mandated to assure better air quality. We use daily air-pollution levels collected from monitoring stations in Guangzhou, the Asian Games host city, and Shenzhen, a nearby control city, between 2009 and 2011. We first show that air quality during the Asian Games significantly improved in Guangzhou, relative to Shenzhen. Next, using birth-certificate data for both cities for 2009–2011 and using expected pregnancy overlap with the Asian Games as an instrumental variable, we study the effects of three pollutants (PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂) on birth outcomes. Four main conclusions emerge: 1) air pollutants significantly reduce average birthweight and increase preterm risk; 2) for birthweight, late pregnancy is most sensitive to PM₁₀ exposure, but there is not consistent evidence of a sensitive period for other pollutants and outcomes; 3) for birthweight, babies of mothers who are at least 35 years old show more vulnerability to all three air pollutants; and 4) male babies show more vulnerability than female babies to PM₁₀ and SO₂, but birthweights of female babies are more sensitive than those of male babies to NO₂.     

How air pollution influences clinical management of respiratory diseases. A case-crossover study in Milan

Background

Environmental pollution is a known risk factor for multiple diseases and furthermore increases rate of hospitalisations. We investigated the correlation between emergency room admissions (ERAs) of the general population for respiratory diseases and the environmental pollutant levels in Milan, a metropolis in northern Italy.

Methods

We collected data from 45770 ERAs for respiratory diseases. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to investigate the association between air pollution levels and ERAs for acute respiratory conditions. The effects of air pollutants were investigated at lag 0 to lag 5, lag 0–2 and lag 3–5 in both single and multi-pollutant models, adjusted for daily weather variables.

Results

An increase in ozone (O₃) levels at lag 3–5 was associated with a 78% increase in the number of ERAs for asthma, especially during the warm season. Exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) proved to be a risk factor for pneumonia at lag 0–2 and in the warm season increased the risk of ERA by 66%. A significant association was found between ERAs for COPD exacerbation and levels of sulphur dioxide (SO₂), CO, nitrate dioxide (NO₂), and particulate matter (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5). The multipollutant model that includes all pollutants showed a significant association between CO (26%) and ERA for upper respiratory tract diseases at lag 0–2. For chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, only CO (OR 1.19) showed a significant association.

Conclusions

Exposure to environmental pollution, even at typical low levels, can increase the risk of ERA for acute respiratory diseases and exacerbation of obstructive lung diseases in the general population.     

Some effects of oxygen concentration on levels of respiratory intermediates in buckwheat seedlings

Changes in levels of glycolytic and some related respiratory intermediates in young seedlings of buckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum) following transfer A) from air to anoxia, B) from air to 1.5% O₂, C) from 1.5% O₂ to anoxia and D) from anoxia to air, are recorded and discussed in relation to other measurements made with these seedlings.

On transfer from air to anoxia the changes are similar to those recorded for pea seeds in which it is inferred that glycolysis is faster in anoxia than in air. The results with buckwheat however can be explained in terms of a decreased rate of glycolysis in anoxia. An alternative hypothesis is developed which states that glycolysis is faster in anoxia than in air and that it is the contribution of the pentose phosphate cycle to the total respiratory catabolism which decreases as the oxygen concentration is reduced towards zero.

     

The relationship between birch pollen,air pollution and weather types and their effect on antihistamine purchase in two Swedish cities

Exposure to elevated air pollution levels can aggravate pollen allergy symptoms. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between airborne birch (Betula) pollen, urban air pollutants NO₂, O₃ and PM₁₀ and their effects on antihistamine demand in Gothenburg and Malmö, Sweden, 2006–2012. Further, the influence of large-scale weather pattern on pollen-/pollution-related risk, using Lamb weather types (LWTs), was analysed. Daily LWTs were obtained by comparing the atmospheric pressure over a 16-point grid system over southern Sweden (scale ~3000 km). They include two non-directional types, cyclonic (C) and anticyclonic (A) and eight directional types depending on the wind direction (N, NE, E…). Birch pollen levels were exceptionally high under LWTs E and SE in both cities. Furthermore, LWTs with dry and moderately calm meteorological character (A, NE, E, SE) were associated with strongly elevated air pollution (NO₂ and PM₁₀) in Gothenburg. For most weather situations in both cities, simultaneously high birch pollen together with high air pollution had larger over-the-counter (OTC) sales of antihistamines than situations with high birch pollen alone. LWTs NE, E, SE and S had the highest OTC sales in both cities. In Gothenburg, the city with a higher load of both birch pollen and air pollution, the higher OTC sales were especially obvious and indicate an increased effect on allergic symptoms from air pollution. Furthermore, Gothenburg LWTs A, NE, E and SE were associated with high pollen and air pollution levels and thus classified as high-risk weather types. In Malmö, corresponding high-risk LWTs were NE, E, SE and S. Furthermore, occurrence of high pollen and air pollutants as well as OTC sales correlated strongly with vapour pressure deficit and temperature in Gothenburg (much less so in Malmö). This provides evidence that the combination of meteorological properties associated with LWTs can explain high levels of birch pollen and air pollution. Our study shows that LWTs represent a useful tool for integrated daily air quality forecasting/warning.     

In vitro assessment of environmental toxicology using alveolar cells astarget

Biphasic culture of alveolar cells (alveolar macrophages and type II cells) has been widely developed and permits a precise evaluation of the toxic effects of air pollutants. Clearly, in vitro exposure of alveolar cells to high concentrations of oxidant gases is responsible for a loss of cell viability. In contrast, when exposed to realistic concentrations of gases (NO₂, O₃), cell viability is not altered and various proinflammatory mediators are released. This in vitro model has proved to be sensitive at levels of gas exposure of ambient air quality standards and appears a sensitive biological indicator of air pollutant cell toxicity.Abbreviations AM alveolar macrophages     

Photorespiratory toxicity in autotrophic cell cultures of a mutant of Nicotiana sylvestris lacking serine: glyoxylate aminotransferase activity

Procedures were devised for heterotrophic culture and autotrophic establishment of protoplast-derived cell cultures from the sat mutant of Nicotiana sylvestris Speg. et Comes lacking serine: glyoxylate aminotransferase (SGAT; EC 2.6.1.45) activity. Increasing photon flux rates (dark, 40, 80 mol quanta·m^-2·s^-1) enhanced the growth rate of autotrophic (no sucrose) wild-type (WT) cultures in air and 1% CO₂. Mutant cultures showed a similar response to light under conditions suppressing photorespiration (1% CO₂), and maintained 65% of WT chlorophyll levels. In normal air, however, sat cultures developed severe photorespiratory toxicity, displaying a negligible rate of growth and rapid loss of chlorophyll to levels below 1% of WT. Low levels of sucrose (0.3%) completely reversed photorespiratory toxicity of the mutant cells in air. Mutant cultures maintained 75% of WT chlorophyll levels in air, displayed light stimulation of growth, and fixed ¹⁴CO₂ at rates identical to WT. Autotrophic sat cultures accumulated serine to levels nearly nine-fold above that of WT cultures in air. Serine accumulated to similar levels in mixotrophic (0.3% sucrose) sat cultures in air, but had no deleterious effect on fixation of ¹⁴CO₂ or growth, indicating that high levels of serine are not toxic, and that toxicity of the sat mutation probably stems from depletion of intermediates of the Calvin cycle. Autotrophic sat cultures were employed in selection experiments designed to identify spontaneous reversions restoring the capacity for growth in air. From a population of 678 000 sat colonies, 23 plantlets were recovered in which sustained growth in air resulted from reacquisition of SGAT activity. Twenty-two had SGAT levels between 25 and 50% of WT, but one had less than 10% of WT SGAT activity, and eventually developed symptoms typical of the sat mutant. The utility of autotrophic sat cultures for selection of chloroplast mutations diminishing the oxygenase activity of ribulose-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (EC 4.1.1.39) is discussed.Abbreviations Chl chlorophyll - DW dry weight - FW fresh weight - SGAT Serine:glyoxylate aminotransferase - WT wild-type     

Pollution emissions from a petrochemical complex and other environmental stressors induce structural and ultrastructural damage in leaves of a biosensor tree species from the Atlantic Rain Forest

Tibouchina pulchra (Cham.) Cogn., a pioneer tree species commonly found in the Atlantic Rain Forest in southeast Brazil, proved to be a promising biosensor species for indicating the potential effects of air pollution on this type of forest. This study aimed to investigate whether the present levels of nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, ozone and particulate matter in industrial and urban areas in the Cubatão region induce structural and ultrastructural changes in this species, to explore the synergy between air pollutants and the effects of other environmental stressors as contributors to microscopic symptoms and to verify whether these changes are seasonally dependent. The field study consisted of exposing potted saplings of T. pulchra in three sites around the petrochemical industry (industrial area), in downtown Cubatão (urban area) and in a site far from the industrial emissions (reference area). An experimental study using open top chambers (OTC) with filtered air and non-filtered air was also carried out to confirm the field results. Four exposure periods of 12 weeks were conducted during the field and the OTC experiments, covering wet and dry periods. The effects were more pronounced in plants exposed in the industrial areas during the dry period, which were confirmed by OTC experiments. Crystal density variations were linearly explained by decreases in NO₂, SO₂ and the sum of all hourly concentrations of ozone (SUM00), as well as increases in PM₁₀, relative humidity and rainfall. Variations in lipid peroxidation correlated positively with air temperature and SUM00. Tannins and starch grains decreased. Collapsed and sinuous cell walls, dense cytoplasm, invagination of plasma membranes and vacuome were the main effects observed at the structural level. Occurrence of pectic warts, alterations in chloroplasts and numerous vesicles close to the cell walls were the main ultrastructural effects detected. These results confirmed that pollutants and environmental variables acted synergistically to induce oxidative stress in this species, enhancing our understanding of the bioindicator potential of T. pulchra for monitoring complex mixtures of air pollutants in the tropics.     

The modeling and health risk assessment of PM2.5 from Tema Oil Refinery

Fine particulate matters (PM_2.5) are known to pose serious health problems compared to other air pollutants. The current study employed air dispersion modeling system (AERMOD) to simulate the concentration of PM_2.5 from Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) and to assess the non-cancer risk and mortalities of the exposed population. In addition, the effects of local climatic factors on the distribution and concentration of PM_2.5 within the three main seasons (Major Raining Season (MRS), Low Raining Season (LRS) and Dry Season (DS)) were investigated. The AERMOD results showed that both 24-h (38.8 µg m^?3) and annual (12.6 µg m^?3) PM_2.5 concentration levels were in exceedance of the international limits. However, a decreasing trend in seasonal PM_2.5 concentrations was observed. Health risk assessment (HRA), indicated by hazard index (HI), revealed that the amount of Al₂O₃ present in the PM_2.5 caused a significant non-carcinogenic health risk to the exposed population (both adults and children) within the Metropolis (HI = 2.4 for adults and HI = 1.5 for children). Additionally, cardiopulmonary disease related mortalities due to PM_2.5 exposure (181 deaths for adults and 24 deaths for children) were found high compared to deaths caused by lung cancer (137 deaths for adults and 16 deaths for children).     

The impact of outdoor air pollutants on outpatient visits for respiratory diseases during 2012–2016 in Jinan,China

Background

Few studies have investigated the associations between outdoor air pollution and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases (RDs) in general population.

Methods

We collected daily outpatient data of primary RDs from five hospitals in Jinan during January 2012 and December 2016, as well as daily measurements of air pollutants from the Jinan Environmental Monitoring Center and daily meteorological variables from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. A generalized additive model (GAM) with quasi-Poisson regression was constructed to estimate the associations between daily average concentrations of outdoor air pollutants (PM_2.5,PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, CO and O₃) and daily outpatient visits of RDs after adjusting for long-time trends, seasonality, the “day of the week” effect, and weather conditions. Subgroup analysis stratified by gender, age group and the type of RDs was conducted.

Results

A total of 1,373,658 outpatient visits for RDs were identified. Increases of 10?μg/m³ in PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, CO and O₃ were associated with0.168% (95% CI, 0.072–0.265%), 0.149% (95% CI, 0.082–0.215%), 0.527% (95% CI, 0.211–0.843%), 0.013% (95% CI, 0.003–0.023%), and 0.189% (95% CI, 0.032–0.347%) increases in daily outpatient visits for RDs, respectively. PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ showed instant and continuous effects, while NO₂, CO and O₃ showed delayed effects on outpatient visits for RDs. In stratification analysis, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were associated with acute RDs only.

Conclusions

Exposure to outdoor air pollutants including PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, CO and O₃ associated with increased risk of outpatient visits for RDs.

     

Induction of Ascorbate Peroxidase and Glutathione Reductase Activities by Interactions of Mixtures of Air Pollutants

The response of ascorbate peroxidase and glutathione reductase activities in peas (Pisum sativum var. Waverex) was investigated after three weeks of exposure to mixed fumigations with S0₂, NO, and O, (0.050 parts per million each) and increasing concentrations of O, (0-0.150 parts per million). The results show that plants respond similarly to a high concentration (0.150 parts per million) of a single air pollutant (ozone) and to mixtures of air pollutants (S0₂, NO: and O,) when individual concentrations are low (0.050 parts per million each). In both cases, levels of ascorbate peroxidase and glutathione reductase activites were approximately twice those to be found in plants grown in charcoal-filtered air (p 0.01).     

Fuzzy Multi-Objective Optimization of a Green Supply Chain Network with Risk Management that Includes Environmental Hazards

Among the leading environmental risks, global climate alteration has become one of the most important controversial issues. Greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, methane, etc.) and air pollution have motivated a need to develop and improve environmental management strategies. As a consequence, environmental sanctions are forcing commercial enterprises to re-consider and re-design supply chain processes in a green way. This article provides a multi-objective model to design a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) network in a green framework. Our first and second objectives are to minimize all the transportation costs for the supply chain's forward and reverse logistics; the third objective is to minimize total CO₂ emissions; the fourth objective is to encourage customers to use recyclable materials as an environmental practice. To provide more realistic modeling by treating the uncertainty in decision-makers’ objectives, fuzzy modeling is used in this study. The model is explained and tested via fulfilling a numerical example. In scenario analyses, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy AHP (F-AHP), and fuzzy TOPSIS (F-TOPSIS) approaches were applied and compared to evaluate different objectives to guide decision-makers.     

Increased Risk of Dementia in Patients Exposed to Nitrogen Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

The air pollution caused by vehicular emissions is associated with cognitive decline. However, the associations between the levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and carbon monoxide (CO) exposure and dementia remain poorly defined and have been addressed in only a few previous studies.

Materials and Methods

In this study, we obtained data on 29547 people from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan, including data on 1720 patients diagnosed with dementia between 2000 and 2010, and we evaluated the risk of dementia among four levels of air pollutant. Detailed data on daily air pollution were available from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2010. Yearly average concentrations of pollutants were calculated from the baseline to the date of dementia occurrence, withdrawal of patients, or the end of the study, and these data were categorized into quartiles, with Q1 being the lowest level and Q4 being the highest.

Results

In the case of NO₂, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of dementia for all participants in Q2, Q3, and Q4 compared to Q1 were 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.96–1.26), 1.01 (95% CI, 0.87–1.17), and 1.54 (95% CI, 1.34–1.77), and in the case of CO, the adjusted HRs were 1.07 (95% CI, 0.92–1.25), 1.37 (95% CI, 1.19–1.58), and 1.61 (95% CI, 1.39–1.85).

Conclusion

The results of this large retrospective, population-based study indicate that exposure to NO₂ and CO is associated with an increased risk of dementia in the Taiwanese population.     

Air Pollution in China: Mapping of Concentrations and Sources

China has recently made available hourly air pollution data from over 1500 sites, including airborne particulate matter (PM), SO₂, NO₂, and O₃. We apply Kriging interpolation to four months of data to derive pollution maps for eastern China. Consistent with prior findings, the greatest pollution occurs in the east, but significant levels are widespread across northern and central China and are not limited to major cities or geologic basins. Sources of pollution are widespread, but are particularly intense in a northeast corridor that extends from near Shanghai to north of Beijing. During our analysis period, 92% of the population of China experienced >120 hours of unhealthy air (US EPA standard), and 38% experienced average concentrations that were unhealthy. China’s population-weighted average exposure to PM_2.5 was 52 μg/m³. The observed air pollution is calculated to contribute to 1.6 million deaths/year in China [0.7–2.2 million deaths/year at 95% confidence], roughly 17% of all deaths in China.     

High performance liquid chromatography and UV detection for the separation and quantitation of prostaglandins

A fast and reliable method for the separation and quantitation of arachidonic acid metabolites PGF_1α, PGF_2α, PGD₂, PGE₁, PGE₂, PGB₂, PGA₂, 6-keto PGE₁, 6-keto PGF_1α, T×B₂ and 15-keto PGE₂ by high-performance liquid chromatography has been developed. Utilizing a single reverse-phase column and a UV spectrophotometer, sensitivity as little as 30 nanograms of each of these prostaglandins can be separated and subsequently detected. Although this study was performed using standards, it is highly promising for future application to biological fluids.     

Simulations of a longitudinal glow discharge in a hot air flow at atmospheric pressure

A one-dimensional axisymmetric time-dependent model of a discharge in a gas flow is developed. The model includes a fairly complete set of plasmochemical reactions and describes the heating and gasdynamic expansion of a plasma channel in air. The processes governing the distribution of nitrogen molecules in the N₂(C ³Π_u, v) state over vibrational levels are considered. The parameters of a longitudinal glow discharge in a hot (T ₀ = 1500?3000 K) air flow at atmospheric pressure are calculated. It is found that gas preheating considerably influences the parameters of the discharge channel. The results of calculations are compared with the experimental data.     

Estimate of population extinction risk and its application to ecological risk management

Environmental threats, such as habitat size reduction or environmental pollution, may not cause immediate extinction of a population but may shorten the expected time to extinction. We developed a method to estimate the mean time to extinction for a density-dependent population with environmental fluctuation and to compare the impacts of different risk factors. We first derived a formula of the mean extinction time for a population with logistic growth and environmental and demographic stochasticities expressed as a stochastic differential equation model (canonical model). The relative importance of different risk factors is evaluated by the decrease in the mean extinction time. We studied an approximated formula for the reduction in habitat size that enhances extinction risk by the same magnitude as a given decrease in survivorship caused by toxic chemical exposure. In a large population (large K) or in a slowly growing population (small r), a small decrease in survivorship can cause the extinction risk to increase, corresponding to a significant reduction in the habitat size. Finally, we studied an approximate maximum likelihood estimate of three parameters (intrinsic growth rate r, carrying capacity K, and environmental stochasticity σ ² _e ) from time series data. By Monte Carlo sampling, we can remove the bias very effectively and determine the confidence interval. We discuss here how the reliability of the estimate changes with the length of time series. If we know the intrinsic rate of population growth r, the mean extinction time is estimated quite accurately even when only a short time series is available for parameter estimation. Received: March 31, 1999 / Accepted: November 9, 1999