Integrating Comparative Risk Assessment with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Manage Contaminated Sediments: An Example for the New York/New Jersey Harbor

Current environmental challenges involve complex assessment and analysis of tradeoffs among differing criteria, expectations, and levels of certainty. Using multi-criteria decision analysis in combination with comparative risk assessment, a systematic and transparent framework can be created to integrate different types and sources of decision-relevant information. Although examples of decision analysis abound in the literature and academic efforts, its use within the practice of risk assessment and environmental management is still being established. This article provides an example of the use of decision analysis study that builds on a previous screening-level, comparative risk assessment of contaminated sediment from the New York/New Jersey harbor area. Using multi-criteria decision analysis, we explored the effect of different criteria weights, utility functions, and cost estimates on the ranking of seven contaminated sediment management alternatives. Values used in weighting decision criteria were surveyed from two interaction sessions with sediment management professionals.     

A Regional Multiple Stressor Risk Assessment of the Codorus Creek Watershed Applying the Relative Risk Model

The relative risk model (RRM) used in Port Valdez, AK, and in Oregon's Willamette/McKenzie Watershed was applied to the Codorus Creek Watershed in south central Pennsylvania. The assessment evaluated the relative risk model for its applicability for ranking ecological risks within the Codorus Creek Watershed. The Codorus Creek Watershed approach included ranking stressors and habitats for regions within the watershed. Geographical Information Systems were vital in compiling and comparing stressor and habitat spatial data from regions in the watershed. The risk of ecological impacts to degrade assessment endpoints were calculated and ranked by quantitatively determining the interactions of the stressors and habitats as defined in the conceptual site model. Uncertainty assessment was conducted and the impact upon the relative ranks and risk conclusions evaluated. To determine regional risks, risk management information was gathered identifying areas to be protected, areas of high stress, and areas where additional information is needed. The results supported the applicability of the RRM and suggested areas and stressors for restoration efforts in the Codorus Creek Watershed. Two critical sets of conclusions were drawn from the assessment. First, in the Codorus Creek Watershed, the most significant stressor is agriculture land use, the most significantly impacted endpoint is water quality, and the most vulnerable habitats are those for macroinvertebrates and warm-water fish. Second, this risk assessment demonstrates the feasibility of using the RRM for assessing risk from multiple stressors on habitats with multiple assessment endpoints in an eastern watershed.     

Quantitative Ecological Risk Assessment of Industrial Accidents: The Case of Oil Ship Transportation in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

Accidents such as toxic spills can cause massive damage to local ecosystems and hamper the sustainable development of hazardous industries. Models that only consider regularly occurring pollution are unable to truly quantify ecological risks (ecorisks) from these industries. This work presents a methodology capable of quantifying ecorisks related to rare and extreme events such as industrial accidents. We developed a procedure that integrates information from different studies that contributes to characterize ecorisks from industrial accidents: (1) reliability analysis, (2) fate and transport modeling, (3) individual-level toxicological assessment, and (4) population modeling. The methodology is exemplified by an application to oil ship transportation to supply Brazil's Suape industrial complex. A fish population was strategically chosen to represent the ecosystem's health of Suape beach. For the critical accidental scenarios, their frequencies of occurrence were estimated and the space–time evolution of oil simulated. The ecorisks were quantified in terms of time and population probability of fish extinction, categorized and compared against a no-accident scenario. The total ecorisks from all scenarios were presented as a FN curve, where N is the average number of deaths in the population and F the cumulative frequency of accidents with potential to cause N or more deaths.     

Selection of Contaminants and Receptors of Concern for Ecological Risk Assessments Using the Paired Comparison Technique (PCT)

A critical component of the ecological risk assessment process, identification of contaminants and receptors of concern, is currently lacking an objective, data-driven, broadly applicable methodology. The paired comparison technique (PCT) can be used to meet this need by providing a standardized technique for making these decisions. PCT condenses the decision-making process down to individual components and ultimately generates an objective ranking for each alternative based on pertinent attributes. Factors considered in the PCT may be selected and weighted via a formal consensus building process which can incorporate stakeholder concerns. Once factors have been selected and weighted, each alternative is ranked relative to each other alter native for each factor. Each alternative ranking for each factor is multiplied by the factor's weight and the weighted rankings are summed. These sums are then used to rank alternatives relative to one another. This ranking provides decision-makers with a semi quantitative basis for making final decisions, although the technique itself does not (and should not) actually make the decision. Several examples of the technique using actual Superfund site data are presented.     

A Relative Risk Ranking of Selected Substances on Canada's National Pollutant Release Inventory

The National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) provides pollutant release and transfer data from point sources to various media in the Canadian environment. While the inventory serves as Canada's community right-to-know program, the growing number of listed substances and reporting facilities makes it exceedingly difficult for the public to discern which substances are of greatest concern in their respective communities. A chemical's impact is best characterized when its environmental release data are combined with its toxicity and environmental fate properties. Presently, the NPRI does not provide a synthesis of this critical information and there is a need to provide more context with NPRI data to increase its usability. To help deliver this context, a relative risk ranking was compiled for a subset of NPRI substances using a modified Chemical Hazard and Evaluation Management Strategies (CHEMS-1) model. The model combines toxicity, chemical fate properties, and NPRI release data to yield a risk score for each substance. The resulting risk scores are ranked accordingly to provide a priority ranking of the substances. In addition to contextualizing the NPRI release data with hazard information, the ranking can also help set priorities for future risk assessment and evaluation by the Canadian government and scientific community. Limitations included the reliance on modelled data and default values to fill data gaps and uncertain reliability in reported NPRI data. In spite of its limitations, the CHEMS-1 model is a useful tool for prioritizing NPRI substances.     

厦门市外来物种入侵现状及其风险评价指标体系

通过对厦门地区外来物种入侵状况的实地调查,对已有文献资料的查阅和专家咨询,整理了厦门市已入侵或值得警惕的外来植物名录。并从气候、土壤、植被生态群落结构、地貌特征、人为和自然干扰状况以及港口交通贸易等方面分析了厦门市外来生物入侵现状的原因。结合前人在外来生物入侵的风险评价方面的研究成果,针对厦门市的外来植物入侵现状,构建了适应厦门地区外来植物入侵风险评价指标体系框架,该指标体系由“移居与建群的可能性”、“危害与影响”和“预防与控制”3大部分,共计6个一级指标,17个二级指标构成。     

Risk of African swine fever introduction into the European Union through transport-associated routes: returning trucks and waste from international ships and planes

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The uncontrolled presence of African swine fever (ASF) in Russian Federation (RF) poses a serious risk to the whole European Union (EU) pig industry. Although trade of pigs and their products is banned since the official notification in June 2007, the potential introduction of ASF virus (ASFV) may occur by other routes, which are very frequent in ASF, and more difficult to control, such as contaminated waste or infected vehicles. This study was intended to estimate the risk of ASFV introduction into the EU through three types of transport routes: returning trucks, waste from international ships and waste from international planes, which will be referred here as transport-associated routes (TAR). Since no detailed and official information was available for these routes, a semi-quantitative model based on the weighted combination of risk factors was developed to estimate the risk of ASFV introduction by TAR. Relative weights for combination of different risk factors as well as validation of the model results were obtained by an expert opinion elicitation. RESULTS: Model results indicate that the relative risk for ASFV introduction through TAR in most of the EU countries (16) is low, although some countries, specifically Poland and Lithuania, concentrate high levels of risk, the returning trucks route being the analyzed TAR that currently poses the highest risk for ASFV introduction into the EU. The spatial distribution of the risk of ASFV introduction varies importantly between the analyzed introduction routes. Results also highlight the need to increase the awareness and precautions for ASF prevention, particularly ensuring truck disinfection, to minimize the potential risk of entrance into the EU. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents the first assessment of ASF introduction into the EU through TAR. The innovative model developed here could be used in data scarce situations for estimating the relative risk associated to each EU country. This simple methodology provides a rapid and easy to interpret results on risk that may be used for a target and cost-effective allocation of resources to prevent disease introduction.     

Between the State and Indigenous Autonomy: Unpacking Video Indígena in Mexico

This essay unpacks the complex emergence of video indígena , or state-sponsored small media, at the height of official pluralism in Mexico in the early 1990s. A government video program created in a transitional institutional setting colludes with the indigenous autonomy movement---through the work and visions of individual video makers and cultural activists---to produce a social form and process that has gained international recognition while confronting particular challenges in indigenous communities.     

美国、加拿大环境和健康风险管理方法

对目前美国和加拿大多个部门使用的风险评价与风险管理方法进行了全面回顾和综合分析,论述各种不同方法的特征,深入探讨各种管理方法的基础、利弊、使用经验,辨识环境、人类健康和职业健康风险综合方法中应该包含的要素,阐述风险管理目标的确定方法,以期为中国的环境风险管理提供经验。     

Regional Ecological Risk Assessment of a Near Shore Marine Environment: Cherry Point,WA

We conducted a regional ecological risk assessment for a near shore marine environment in northwestern Washington State using the Relative Risk Model. The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to analyze cumulative impacts from multiple sources of chemical and non-chemical stressors in the near shore region and upland watersheds of Cherry Point (2) to determine the utility of Monte Carlo type uncertainty analysis in a rank-based regional risk assessment and (3) to investigate the effects of model habitat characterization on risk estimates. We used geographic information systems to compile and compare spatial data to determine ranks for sub-regions within the study area. By quantitatively combining ranks with exposure and effects filters, we estimated total relative risk between sub-regions and relative contributions of stressors. Finally, we used Monte Carlo analysis and an alternative ranking scheme to evaluate the effects of model and parameter uncertainty on risk predictions. The regional risk assessment results suggest the major contributors of risk are vessel traffic, upland urban and agricultural land use and shoreline recreational activities. This assessment demonstrated the applicability of regional risk assessment to marine near shore regions and the benefit of Monte Carlo analysis in describing uncertainty in a Relative Risk Model regional risk assessment.     

The Role of Human Error Analysis in Occupational and Environmental Risk Assessment: A Serbian Experience

Human error analysis is certainly a challenge today for all involved in safety and environmental risk assessment. The risk assessment process should not ignore the role of humans in accidental events and the consequences that may derive from human error. This article presents a case study of the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) applied to the Electric Power Company of Serbia (EPCS), with the aim to disclose the importance of human error analysis in risk assessment. A database on work-related injuries, accidents, and critical interventions that occurred over a 10-year period in the EPCS provided the basis for this study. The research comprised analysis of 1074 workplaces, with a total of 3997 employees. A detailed analysis identified 10 typical human errors, performance shaping factors (PSFs), and estimated human error probability (HEP). Based on the obtained research results one can conclude that PSF control remains crucial for human error reduction, and thus prevention of occupational injuries and fatalities (the number of injuries decreased from 58 in 2012 to 44 in 2013, no fatalities recorded). Furthermore, the case study performed at the EPCS confirmed that the SLIM is highly applicable for quantification of human errors, comprehensive, and easy to perform.     

The Network of Counterparty Risk: Analysing Correlations in OTC Derivatives

Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only report their aggregated quarterly risk exposure, but no details about their counterparties. Hence, little is known about the diversification of counterparty risk. In this paper, we reconstruct the weighted and time-dependent network of counterparty risk in the OTC derivatives market of the United States between 1998 and 2012. To proxy unknown bilateral exposures, we first study the co-occurrence patterns of institutions based on their quarterly activity and ranking in the official report. The network obtained this way is further analysed by a weighted k-core decomposition, to reveal a core-periphery structure. This allows us to compare the activity-based ranking with a topology-based ranking, to identify the most important institutions and their mutual dependencies. We also analyse correlations in these activities, to show strong similarities in the behavior of the core institutions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates the clustering of counterparty risk in a small set of about a dozen US banks. This not only increases the default risk of the central institutions, but also the default risk of peripheral institutions which have contracts with the central ones. Hence, all institutions indirectly have to bear (part of) the counterparty risk of all others, which needs to be better reflected in the price of OTC derivatives.     

Risk of fatal accidents occurring other than at sea among Icelandic seamen.

OBJECTIVE--To study mortality among seamen, particularly from fatal accidents that occurred other than at sea. DESIGN--Cohort study. SETTING--Iceland. SUBJECTS--27,884 seamen, both fishermen and sailors from the merchant fleet, who had been members of a pension fund from 1958 to 1986. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cause of death (ICD seventh revision), standardised mortality ratio. RESULTS--Most standardised mortality ratios were greater than 1, being 1.26 for all causes and 1.83 for all external causes. There was no healthy worker effect. The excess of deaths from all external causes included all subcategories of death from accidents, poisonings, and violence and not just accidents at sea (water transport accidents, ICD codes E850-E858). A significant trend was found for length of employment and mortality from all accidents at sea, drowning at sea, accidental poisoning, other accidents, and accidental drowning; correlation coefficients for all causes, all accidents, suicide, and injuries undetermined whether accidentally or purposely inflicted were 0.7-0.8. Compared with seamen who started work during 1968-77, those who started work in 1978 or later had higher mortality from all causes, road traffic accidents, poisoning, other accidents, homicide, and injuries unknown whether accidentally or purposely inflicted, but not from all accidents at sea and accidental drowning. CONCLUSION--Seamen seem to be a special group with a high risk of fatal accidents occurring not only at sea. The association between fatal accidents other than at sea and length of employment as seamen indicates that seamen are modified by their occupation towards hazardous behaviour or a risky lifestyle.     

A combined DEMATEL and grey system theory approach for analyzing occupational risks: A case study in Turkish shipbuilding industry

The shipbuilding industry is known as heavy industry because of its high-risk work activities. Therefore, in order to prevent fatal occupational accidents in the shipbuilding industry, the processes of defining hazards, evaluating risks, taking action to eliminate or reduce risks are important issues in risk assessment. This article presents a novel occupational risk-assessment approach, which can help managers of shipbuilding make proper precautions strategies for accidents, to evaluate shipyard Critical Risk Factors and risky shipyard processes/work units. Thus, DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and Grey system theory approaches are integrated to develop a systematic risk-assessment framework for the shipbuilding industry. This approach was applied to a real case study in a Turkish shipyard. The performance evaluation results have indicated that the combined approach can provide satisfactory risk assessment for occupational risk causes and relevant improvement strategies to prevent accidents. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted on the results to ensure the reliability of solutions. Even though a novel decision support and evaluation approach on risk implementation is introduced for shipbuilding, limitations and concerns are areas for further research opportunities. Further, a sensitivity analysis of results, managerial implications, conclusions, limitations and future research opportunities are provided.     

食源性致病菌风险排名方法

综述食品风险排名的相关概念及其在风险评估中的重要性,探讨发达国家进行风险分析的方法与经验,其中致病菌风险排名的研究因病原菌的动态性和宿主特异性而呈现出独特的挑战性。重点详细探讨美国对食源性致病菌排名的创新方法——专家组启发法,此法作为弥补数据不足和不确定性的手段,结合传统的＂自上而下＂和＂自下而上＂方法,可以为风险管理者提供了更全面更有效的食源性致病菌风险排名。     

Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis of Public Health Risk Assessment from Contaminated Soil

Recently, there has been a growing trend toward using stochastic (probabilistic) methods in ecological and public health risk assessment. These methods are favored because they overcome the problem of compounded conservatism and allow the systematic consideration of uncertainty and variability typically encountered in risk assessment. This article demonstrates a new methodology for the analysis of uncertainty in risk assessment using the first-order reliability method (FORM). The reliability method is formulated such that the probability that incremental lifetime cancer risk exceeds a predefined threshold level is calculated. Furthermore, the stochastic sensitivity of this probability with respect to the random variables is provided. The emphasis is on exploring the different types of probabilistic sensitivity obtained through the reliability analysis. The method is applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. (1992) on cancer risk resulting from dermal contact with benzo(a)pyrene (BaP)-contaminated soils. The reliability results matched those of the Monte Carlo simulation method. On average, the Monte Carlo simulation method required about 35 times as many function evaluations as that of FORM to calculate the probability of exceeding the target risk level. The analysis emphasizes the significant impact that the uncertainty in cancer potency factor has on the probabilistic modeling results compared with other parameters.     

Identifying the methodological characteristics of European green city rankings

City rankings that aim to measure the environmental sustainability of European cities may contribute to the evaluation and development of environmental policy of European cities. The objective of this study is to identify and evaluate the methodological characteristics of these city rankings. First, a methodology was developed to systematically identify methodological characteristics of city rankings within different steps of the ranking development process. Second, six city rankings (European Energy Award, European Green Capital Award, European Green City Index, European Soot-free City Ranking, RES Champions League, Urban Ecosystem Europe) were examined. Official websites and any methodological documents found on those websites were content analyzed using the developed methodology. Interviews with representatives of the city rankings were conducted to acquire any additional information. Results showed that the city rankings varied greatly with respect to their methodological characteristics and that all city rankings had methodological weaknesses. Developers of city rankings are advised to use the methodology developed in this study to find methodological weaknesses and improve their ranking. In addition, developers ought to be more transparent about the methodological characteristics of their city rankings. End-users of city rankings are advised to use the developed methodology to identify and evaluate the methodological characteristics of city rankings before deciding to act on ranking results.     

Objective and Perceived Risk Estimates of Travel Modes in the Norwegian Public

The aim of this study was to identify groups of travel mode users, based on objective risk estimates, and examine overall differences in demographic characteristics, perceived risk, worry, perceived control when using travel modes, trust in authorities, and safety motivation. The results were based on a self-completion questionnaire survey about risk perception and travel mode use in a representative sample of the Norwegian public (n = 1864). In addition, aggregate-level data on accidents in transport were used to establish the “objective risk” for various travel modes. The respondents were split into two clusters. The first cluster was characterized by a relatively greater objective risk for accidents related to public travel modes as well as related to being a pedestrian, while the second cluster was characterized by a higher risk level related to motorized private modes of transportation. There was a significant overall difference in the risk estimates among the members of the two clusters. There was also an overall difference in risk perception and other risk-related judgments due to which risk estimate-based cluster the respondents belonged. Associations between objective risk estimates, perceived risk, and worry are discussed in relation to cluster differences in objective risk.     

Risk Assessment in Navy Deployment Toxicology

The risk assessment process is a critical function for deployment toxicology research. It is essential to the decision making process related to establishing risk reduction procedures and for formulating appropriate exposure levels to protect naval personnel from potentially hazardous chemicals in the military that could result in a reduction in readiness operations. These decisions must be based on quality data from well-planned laboratory animal studies that guide the judgements, which result in effective risk characterization and risk management. The process of risk assessment in deployment toxicology essentially uses the same principles as civilian risk assessment, but adds activities essential to the military mission, including intended and unintended exposure to chemicals and chemical mixtures. Risk assessment and Navy deployment toxicology data are integrated into a systematic and well-planned approach to the organization of scientific information. The purpose of this paper is to outline the analytical framework used to develop strategies to protect the health of deployed Navy forces.