Genetic Variation in the Base Excision Repair Pathway,Environmental Risk Factors,and Colorectal Adenoma Risk

Cigarette smoking, high alcohol intake, and low dietary folate levels are risk factors for colorectal adenomas. Oxidative damage caused by these three factors can be repaired through the base excision repair pathway (BER). We hypothesized that genetic variation in BER might modify colorectal adenoma risk. In a sigmoidoscopy-based study, we examined associations between 182 haplotype tagging SNPs in 14 BER genes, and colorectal adenoma risk, and examined their potential role as modifiers of the effect cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and dietary folate levels. Among all individuals, no statistically significant associations between BER SNPs and adenoma risk persisted after correction for multiple comparisons. However, among Asian-Pacific Islanders we observed two SNPs in FEN1 and one in NTHL1, and among African-Americans one SNP in APEX1 that were associated with colorectal adenoma risk. Significant associations were also observed between SNPs in the NEIL2 gene and rectal adenoma risk. Three SNPS modified the effect of smoking (MUTYH interaction p = 0.002; OGG1 interaction p = 0.013); FEN1 interaction p = 0.013)), one SNP in LIG3 modified the effect of alcohol consumption (interaction p = 0.024) and two SNPs in LIG3 modified the effect of dietary folate (interaction p = 0.001 and p = 0.08) on colorectal adenoma risk. These findings support a role for genetic variants in the BER pathway as potential modifiers of colorectal adenoma risk. Our findings strengthen the role of oxidative damage induced by key lifestyle and dietary risk factors in colorectal adenoma formation.     

Risk, Uncertainty, and Violence in Eastern Africa

Previous research on warfare in a worldwide sample of societies by Ember and Ember (Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36, 242–262, 1992a) found a strong relationship between resource unpredictability (particularly food scarcity caused by natural disasters) in nonstate, nonpacified societies and overall warfare frequency. Focusing on eastern Africa, a region frequently plagued with subsistence uncertainty as well as violence, this paper explores the relationships between resource problems, including resource unpredictability, chronic scarcity, and warfare frequencies. It also examines whether resource scarcity predicts more resource-taking in land, movable property, and people, as well as the commission of atrocities. Results support previous worldwide results regarding the relationship between resource unpredictability and warfare frequency. Results regarding resource-taking and atrocities are more nuanced and complex. In almost all findings, relationships are generally in opposite directions in nonstate and state societies. In post-hoc analyses, atrocities are significantly more likely to be committed in states than in nonstates.     

A Regional Ecological Risk Assessment of the Kaipara Harbour,New Zealand,Using a Relative Risk Model

A regional ecological risk assessment was conducted for the Kaipara Harbour catchment in New Zealand. The Relative Risk Model was used to prioritize management of the sources of stress and habitats of concern in the basin. Semi-structured interviews with 25 representative stakeholders were conducted to obtain the resource-users’ perspectives and to identify the regional stressor sources and receptor habitat data for the model. For this risk analysis we divided the catchment into nine ecological districts. Mixed-methodological approaches including content analysis, geospatial analysis, and source documentation were used to categorize source and habitat rankings, based on the relative abundance of each in the nine ecological districts. Risk characterization revealed that fishing pressure and tidal energy pose the largest sources of perceived risk to the catchment; shellfish and Maui dolphin habitats are the receptors estimated to be at greatest risk; and the Kaipara and Rodney ecological districts are the sub-regions estimated with the greatest combined risk. A Monte Carlo analysis confirmed the source inputs and revealed greater uncertainty than the estimated habitat input results. The results of this assessment can be used by policy-makers, conservation groups, and municipalities to inform the future management efforts in the harbor and catchment.     

Resistant Hypertension,Patient Characteristics,and Risk of Stroke

Background

Little is known about the prognosis of resistant hypertension (RH) in Asian population. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of RH in Taiwanese patients with hypertension, and to ascertain whether patient characteristics influence the association of RH with adverse outcomes.

Methods and Results

Patients aged ≥45 years with hypertension were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Medical records of 111,986 patients were reviewed in this study, and 16,402 (14.6%) patients were recognized as having RH (continuously concomitant use of ≥3 anti-hypertensive medications, including a diuretic, for ≥2 years). Risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute coronary syndrome, and stroke [included both fatal and nonfatal events]) in patients with RH and non-RH was analyzed. A total of 11,856 patients experienced MACE in the follow-up period (average 7.1±3.0 years). There was a higher proportion of females in the RH group, they were older than the non-RH (63.1 vs. 60.5 years) patients, and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular co-morbidities. Overall, patients with RH had higher risks of MACE (adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 1.09–1.26; p<0.001). Significantly elevated risks of stroke (10,211 events; adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 1.08–1.27; p<0.001), especially ischemic stroke (6,235 events; adjusted HR 1.34; 95%CI 1.20–1.48; p<0.001), but not all-cause mortality (4,594 events; adjusted HR 1.06; 95%CI 0.95–1.19; p = 0.312) or acute coronary syndrome (2,145 events; adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 0.99–1.39; p = 0.070) were noted in patients with RH compared to those with non-RH. Subgroup analysis showed that RH increased the risks of stroke in female and elderly patients. However, no significant influence was noted in young or male patients.

Conclusions

Patients with RH were associated with higher risks of MACE and stroke, especially ischemic stroke. The risks were greater in female and elderly patients than in male or young patients.     

Risk Assessment,Microbial Communities,and Pollution-Induced Community Tolerance

Until recently, parameters from microorganisms were generally not included in risk assessment at a comparable level to animals and plants. However, the major part of global biomass, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes is present in the microbial world and microbiological techniques applicable to risk assessment are becoming available. Two microbial indicators are described based on the usage of multiwell plates with different substrates and a redox indicator for monitoring mineralisation. With both techniques autochthonous microbial communities are analysed. Producing functional fingerprints of the microbial community gives insights into the composition of different functions. This is equivalent to observations of ecological abundance and species composition. When lack of reference sites or reference data renders risk assessment difficult, measurement of the pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) can provide useful information.     

Risk, resources and state-dependent adaptive behavioural syndromes

Many animals exhibit behavioural syndromes-consistent individual differences in behaviour across two or more contexts or situations. Here, we present adaptive, state-dependent mathematical models for analysing issues about behavioural syndromes. We find that asset protection (where individuals with more 'assets' tend be more cautious) and starvation avoidance, two state-dependent mechanisms, can explain short-term behavioural consistency, but not long-term stable behavioural types (BTs). These negative-feedback mechanisms tend to produce convergence in state and behaviour over time. In contrast, a positive-feedback mechanism, state-dependent safety (where individuals with higher energy reserves, size, condition or vigour are better at coping with predators), can explain stable differences in personality over the long term. The relative importance of negative- and positive-feedback mechanisms in governing behavioural consistency depends on environmental conditions (predation risk and resource availability). Behavioural syndromes emerge more readily in conditions of intermediate ecological favourability (e.g. medium risk and medium resources, or high risk and resources, or low risk and resources). Under these conditions, individuals with higher initial state maintain a tendency to be bolder than individuals that start with low initial state; i.e. later BT is determined by state during an early 'developmental window'. In contrast, when conditions are highly favourable (low risk, high resources) or highly unfavourable (high risk, low resources), individuals converge to be all relatively bold or all relatively cautious, respectively. In those circumstances, initial differences in BT are not maintained over the long term, and there is no early developmental window where initial state governs later BT. The exact range of ecological conditions favouring behavioural syndromes depends also on the strength of state-dependent safety.     

Risk Analysis,Uncertainty Factors,and the Susceptibilities of Children

This article examines the use of uncertainty factors (UFs) by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) when developing health guidance values known as minimal risk levels (MRLs) in environmental risk analysis as it applies to children. Improvements in the chemical-specific databases often reveal new information and thereby reduce uncertainty or alternatively raise new concerns. As a result, MRLs can and will change. Children, in particular, are not “small adults” and in some instances demonstrate greater risks of exposure to environmental toxicants and greater susceptibility for adverse health effects once exposed. Recent experience with risk analysis for three toxicants (organic mercury, dioxin, and manganese) is recounted to demonstrate how ATSDR has revised MRLs as the emerging science generates greater knowledge and awareness of children's special vulnerabilities to toxic substances in the environment.     

Ritual, Risk, and Danger: Chain Prayers in Fiji

Rituals that defuse immediate senses of danger can perpetuate senses of powerlessness. Ambiguous language used in defensive rituals can heighten people's senses of the risks they are confronting and also compel people to perform those rituals again in the future. In this article, I illustrate this argument by examining Fijian Methodist masu sema (chain prayers), which are conducted to defuse the dangers that beset society, including curses from demonic ancestors. I argue that Fijian cultural themes of present-day human powerlessness are generated largely by competition between Methodist and chiefly authorities. "Chain prayers" are attempts to negate the power of dangerous ancestors, but in requesting God's help, ritual participants cast themselves as powerless. Verbal ambiguity in chain prayers gives "demons" lives of their own, compelling their future circulation.     

Failla memorial lecture. Risk, research, and radiation protection

Radiation protection concerns the risk of stochastic late effects, especially cancer, and limits on radiation exposure both occupationally and for the public tend to be based on these risks. The risks are determined, mainly by expert committees, from the steadily growing information on exposed human populations, especially the survivors of the atomic bombs dropped in Japan in 1945. Risks of cancer estimated up to the early 1980s were in the range 1 to 5 X 10(-2)/Sv, but recent revisions in the dosimetry of the Japanese survivors and additional cycles of epidemiological information suggest values now probably at the high end of this range. These are likely to require an increase in the values used for radiation protection. A major problem with risk estimation is that data are available only for substantial doses and must be extrapolated down to the low-dose region of interest in radiation protection. Thus the shape of the dose-response curve is important, and here we must turn to laboratory research. Of importance are studies involving (1) dose rate, which affects the response to low-LET radiation and often to high-LET radiation as well; (2) radiation quality, since the shapes of the dose-response curves for high- and low-LET radiation differ and thus the RBE, the ratio between them, varies, reaching a maximum value RBEM at low doses; and (3) modifiers of the carcinogenic response, which either enhance or reduce the effect of a given dose. Radiation protection depends both on risk information, and especially also on comparisons with other occupational and public risks, and on research, not only for extrapolations of risk to low doses but also in areas where human information is lacking such as in the effects of radiation quality and in modifications of response.