Social Networks Shape the Transmission Dynamics of Hepatitis C Virus

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects 170 million people worldwide, and is a major public health problem in Brazil, where over 1% of the population may be infected and where multiple viral genotypes co-circulate. Chronically infected individuals are both the source of transmission to others and are at risk for HCV-related diseases, such as liver cancer and cirrhosis. Before the adoption of anti-HCV control measures in blood banks, this virus was mainly transmitted via blood transfusion. Today, needle sharing among injecting drug users is the most common form of HCV transmission. Of particular importance is that HCV prevalence is growing in non-risk groups. Since there is no vaccine against HCV, it is important to determine the factors that control viral transmission in order to develop more efficient control measures. However, despite the health costs associated with HCV, the factors that determine the spread of virus at the epidemiological scale are often poorly understood. Here, we sequenced partial NS5b gene sequences sampled from blood samples collected from 591 patients in São Paulo state, Brazil. We show that different viral genotypes entered São Paulo at different times, grew at different rates, and are associated with different age groups and risk behaviors. In particular, subtype 1b is older and grew more slowly than subtypes 1a and 3a, and is associated with multiple age classes. In contrast, subtypes 1a and 3b are associated with younger people infected more recently, possibly with higher rates of sexual transmission. The transmission dynamics of HCV in São Paulo therefore vary by subtype and are determined by a combination of age, risk exposure and underlying social network. We conclude that social factors may play a key role in determining the rate and pattern of HCV spread, and should influence future intervention policies.     

Dynamics and Control of Diseases in Networks with Community Structure

The dynamics of infectious diseases spread via direct person-to-person transmission (such as influenza, smallpox, HIV/AIDS, etc.) depends on the underlying host contact network. Human contact networks exhibit strong community structure. Understanding how such community structure affects epidemics may provide insights for preventing the spread of disease between communities by changing the structure of the contact network through pharmaceutical or non-pharmaceutical interventions. We use empirical and simulated networks to investigate the spread of disease in networks with community structure. We find that community structure has a major impact on disease dynamics, and we show that in networks with strong community structure, immunization interventions targeted at individuals bridging communities are more effective than those simply targeting highly connected individuals. Because the structure of relevant contact networks is generally not known, and vaccine supply is often limited, there is great need for efficient vaccination algorithms that do not require full knowledge of the network. We developed an algorithm that acts only on locally available network information and is able to quickly identify targets for successful immunization intervention. The algorithm generally outperforms existing algorithms when vaccine supply is limited, particularly in networks with strong community structure. Understanding the spread of infectious diseases and designing optimal control strategies is a major goal of public health. Social networks show marked patterns of community structure, and our results, based on empirical and simulated data, demonstrate that community structure strongly affects disease dynamics. These results have implications for the design of control strategies.     

Structure and Dynamics of ER: Minimal Networks and Biophysical Constraints

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) in live cells is a highly mobile network whose structure dynamically changes on a number of timescales. The role of such drastic changes in any system is unclear, although there are correlations with ER function. A better understanding of the fundamental biophysical constraints on the system will allow biologists to determine the effects of molecular factors on ER dynamics. Previous studies have identified potential static elements that the ER may remodel around. Here, we use these structural elements to assess biophysical principles behind the network dynamics. By analyzing imaging data of tobacco leaf epidermal cells under two different conditions, i.e., native state (control) and latrunculin B (treated), we show that the geometric structure and dynamics of ER networks can be understood in terms of minimal networks. Our results show that the ER network is well modeled as a locally minimal-length network between the static elements that potentially anchor the ER to the cell cortex over longer timescales; this network is perturbed by a mixture of random and deterministic forces. The network need not have globally minimum length; we observe cases where the local topology may change dynamically between different Euclidean Steiner network topologies. The networks in the treated cells are easier to quantify, because they are less dynamic (the treatment suppresses actin dynamics), but the same general features are found in control cells. Using a Langevin approach, we model the dynamics of the nonpersistent nodes and use this to show that the images can be used to estimate both local viscoelastic behavior of the cytoplasm and filament tension in the ER network. This means we can explain several aspects of the ER geometry in terms of biophysical principles.     

Structure and Dynamics of ER: Minimal Networks and Biophysical Constraints

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) in live cells is a highly mobile network whose structure dynamically changes on a number of timescales. The role of such drastic changes in any system is unclear, although there are correlations with ER function. A better understanding of the fundamental biophysical constraints on the system will allow biologists to determine the effects of molecular factors on ER dynamics. Previous studies have identified potential static elements that the ER may remodel around. Here, we use these structural elements to assess biophysical principles behind the network dynamics. By analyzing imaging data of tobacco leaf epidermal cells under two different conditions, i.e., native state (control) and latrunculin B (treated), we show that the geometric structure and dynamics of ER networks can be understood in terms of minimal networks. Our results show that the ER network is well modeled as a locally minimal-length network between the static elements that potentially anchor the ER to the cell cortex over longer timescales; this network is perturbed by a mixture of random and deterministic forces. The network need not have globally minimum length; we observe cases where the local topology may change dynamically between different Euclidean Steiner network topologies. The networks in the treated cells are easier to quantify, because they are less dynamic (the treatment suppresses actin dynamics), but the same general features are found in control cells. Using a Langevin approach, we model the dynamics of the nonpersistent nodes and use this to show that the images can be used to estimate both local viscoelastic behavior of the cytoplasm and filament tension in the ER network. This means we can explain several aspects of the ER geometry in terms of biophysical principles.     

Genealogies: Pedigrees and Phylogenies are Reticulating Networks Not Just Divergent Trees

Pedigrees illustrate the genealogical relationships among individuals, and phylogenies do the same for groups of organisms (such as species, genera, etc.). Here, I provide a brief survey of current concepts and methods for calculating and displaying genealogical relationships. These relationships have long been recognized to be reticulating, rather than strictly divergent, and so both pedigrees and phylogenies are correctly treated as networks rather than trees. However, currently most pedigrees are instead presented as “family trees”, and most phylogenies are presented as phylogenetic trees. Nevertheless, the historical development of concepts shows that networks pre-dated trees in most fields of biology, including the study of pedigrees, biology theory, and biology practice, as well as in historical linguistics in the social sciences. Trees were actually introduced in order to provide a simpler conceptual model for historical relationships, since trees are a specific type of simple network. Computationally, trees and networks are a part of graph theory, consisting of nodes connected by edges. In this mathematical context they differ solely in the absence or presence of reticulation nodes, respectively. There are two types of graphs that can be called phylogenetic networks: (1) rooted evolutionary networks, and (2) unrooted affinity networks. There are quite a few computational methods for unrooted networks, which have two main roles in phylogenetics: (a) they act as a generic form of multivariate data display; and (b) they are used specifically to represent haplotype networks. Evolutionary networks are more difficult to infer and analyse, as there is no mathematical algorithm for reconstructing unique historical events. There is thus currently no coherent analytical framework for computing such networks.     

HIV Competition Dynamics over Sexual Networks: First Comer Advantage Conserves Founder Effects

Outside Africa, the global phylogeography of HIV is characterized by compartmentalized local epidemics that are typically dominated by a single subtype, which indicates strong founder effects. We hypothesized that the competition of viral strains at the epidemic level may involve an advantage of the resident strain that was the first to colonize a population. Such an effect would slow down the invasion of new strains, and thus also the diversification of the epidemic. We developed a stochastic modelling framework to simulate HIV epidemics over dynamic contact networks. We simulated epidemics in which the second strain was introduced into a population where the first strain had established a steady-state epidemic, and assessed whether, and on what time scale, the second strain was able to spread in the population. Simulations were parameterized based on empirical data; we tested scenarios with varying levels of overall prevalence. The spread of the second strain occurred on a much slower time scale compared with the initial expansion of the first strain. With strains of equal transmission efficiency, the second strain was unable to invade on a time scale relevant for the history of the HIV pandemic. To become dominant over a time scale of decades, the second strain needed considerable (>25%) advantage in transmission efficiency over the resident strain. The inhibition effect was weaker if the second strain was introduced while the first strain was still in its growth phase. We also tested how possible mechanisms of interference (inhibition of superinfection, depletion of highly connected hubs in the network, one-time acute peak of infectiousness) contribute to the inhibition effect. Our simulations confirmed a strong first comer advantage in the competition dynamics of HIV at the population level, which may explain the global phylogeography of the virus and may influence the future evolution of the pandemic.     

Inference of Epidemiological Dynamics Based on Simulated Phylogenies Using Birth-Death and Coalescent Models

Quantifying epidemiological dynamics is crucial for understanding and forecasting the spread of an epidemic. The coalescent and the birth-death model are used interchangeably to infer epidemiological parameters from the genealogical relationships of the pathogen population under study, which in turn are inferred from the pathogen genetic sequencing data. To compare the performance of these widely applied models, we performed a simulation study. We simulated phylogenetic trees under the constant rate birth-death model and the coalescent model with a deterministic exponentially growing infected population. For each tree, we re-estimated the epidemiological parameters using both a birth-death and a coalescent based method, implemented as an MCMC procedure in BEAST v2.0. In our analyses that estimate the growth rate of an epidemic based on simulated birth-death trees, the point estimates such as the maximum a posteriori/maximum likelihood estimates are not very different. However, the estimates of uncertainty are very different. The birth-death model had a higher coverage than the coalescent model, i.e. contained the true value in the highest posterior density (HPD) interval more often (2–13% vs. 31–75% error). The coverage of the coalescent decreases with decreasing basic reproductive ratio and increasing sampling probability of infecteds. We hypothesize that the biases in the coalescent are due to the assumption of deterministic rather than stochastic population size changes. Both methods performed reasonably well when analyzing trees simulated under the coalescent. The methods can also identify other key epidemiological parameters as long as one of the parameters is fixed to its true value. In summary, when using genetic data to estimate epidemic dynamics, our results suggest that the birth-death method will be less sensitive to population fluctuations of early outbreaks than the coalescent method that assumes a deterministic exponentially growing infected population.     

Incorporating Disease and Population Structure into Models of SIR Disease in Contact Networks

We consider the recently introduced edge-based compartmental models (EBCM) for the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) diseases in networks. These models differ from standard infectious disease models by focusing on the status of a random partner in the population, rather than a random individual. This change in focus leads to simple analytic models for the spread of SIR diseases in random networks with heterogeneous degree. In this paper we extend this approach to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of earlier work. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic features or multiple types of risk behavior. We allow the disease to have more complicated natural history. Although we introduce these modifications in the static network context, it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic network models. We also consider serosorting, which requires using dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here. Our goal is twofold: to provide a number of examples generalizing the EBCM method for various different population or disease structures and to provide insight into how to derive such a model under new sets of assumptions.     

Simulations of Long-Term Community Dynamics in Coral Reefs - How Perturbations Shape Trajectories

Tropical coral reefs feature extraordinary biodiversity and high productivity rates in oligotrophic waters. Due to increasing frequencies of perturbations – anthropogenic and natural – many reefs are under threat. Such perturbations often have devastating effects on these unique ecosystems and especially if they occur simultaneously and amplify each other''s impact, they might trigger a phase shift and create irreversible conditions.We developed a generic, spatially explicit, individual-based model in which competition drives the dynamics of a virtual benthic reef community – comprised of scleractinian corals and algae – under different environmental settings. Higher system properties, like population dynamics or community composition arise through self-organization as emergent properties. The model was parameterized for a typical coral reef site at Zanzibar, Tanzania and features coral bleaching and physical disturbance regimes as major sources of perturbations. Our results show that various types and modes (intensities and frequencies) of perturbations create diverse outcomes and that the switch from high diversity to single species dominance can be evoked by small changes in a key parameter.Here we extend the understanding of coral reef resilience and the identification of key processes, drivers and respective thresholds, responsible for changes in local situations. One future goal is to provide a tool which may aid decision making processes in management of coral reefs.     

Disentangling the Size and Shape Components of Sexual Dimorphism

Evolutionary Biology - Many organisms are sexually dimorphic, reflecting sex-specific selection pressures. But although sexual dimorphism may consist of different variables from size to shape and...     

Network Dynamics Contribute to Structure: Nestedness in Mutualistic Networks

Both ecological and evolutionary timescales are of importance when considering an ecological system; population dynamics affect the evolution of species traits, and vice versa. Recently, these two timescales have been used to explain structural patterns in host-parasite networks, where the evolution of the manner in which species balance the use of their resources in interactions with each other was examined. One of these patterns was nestedness, in which the set of parasite species within a particular host forms a subset of those within a more species-rich host. Patterns of both nestedness and anti-nestedness have been observed significantly more often than expected due to chance in host-parasite networks. In contrast, mutualistic networks tend to display a significant degree of nestedness, but are rarely anti-nested. Within networks with different interaction types, therefore, there appears to be a feature promoting non-random structural patterns, such as nestedness and anti-nestedness, depending on the interaction types involved. Here, we invoke the co-evolution of species trait-values when allocating resources to interactions to explain the structural pattern of nestedness in a mutualistic community. We look at a bipartite, multi-species system, in which the strength of an interaction between two species is determined by the resources that each species invests in that relationship. We then analyze the evolution of these interactions using adaptive dynamics. We found that the evolution of these interactions, reflecting the trade-off of resources, could be used to accurately predict that nestedness occurs significantly more often than expect due to chance alone in a mutualistic network. This complements previous results applying the same concept to an antagonistic network. We conclude that population dynamics and resource trade-offs could be important promoters of structural patterns in ecological networks of different types.     

Exploring the Link between Genetic Relatedness r and Social Contact Structure k in Animal Social Networks

Our understanding of how cooperation can arise in a population of selfish individuals has been greatly advanced by theory. More than one approach has been used to explore the effect of population structure. Inclusive fitness theory uses genetic relatedness r to express the role of population structure. Evolutionary graph theory models the evolution of cooperation on network structures and focuses on the number of interacting partners k as a quantity of interest. Here we use empirical data from a hierarchically structured animal contact network to examine the interplay between independent, measurable proxies for these key parameters. We find strong inverse correlations between estimates of r and k over three levels of social organization, suggesting that genetic relatedness and social contact structure capture similar structural information in a real population.     

Assessment of Overlap of Phylogenetic Transmission Clusters and Communities in Simple Sexual Contact Networks: Applications to HIV-1

Background

Transmission patterns of sexually-transmitted infections (STIs) could relate to the structure of the underlying sexual contact network, whose features are therefore of interest to clinicians. Conventionally, we represent sexual contacts in a population with a graph, that can reveal the existence of communities. Phylogenetic methods help infer the history of an epidemic and incidentally, may help detecting communities. In particular, phylogenetic analyses of HIV-1 epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) have revealed the existence of large transmission clusters, possibly resulting from within-community transmissions. Past studies have explored the association between contact networks and phylogenies, including transmission clusters, producing conflicting conclusions about whether network features significantly affect observed transmission history. As far as we know however, none of them thoroughly investigated the role of communities, defined with respect to the network graph, in the observation of clusters.

Methods

The present study investigates, through simulations, community detection from phylogenies. We simulate a large number of epidemics over both unweighted and weighted, undirected random interconnected-islands networks, with islands corresponding to communities. We use weighting to modulate distance between islands. We translate each epidemic into a phylogeny, that lets us partition our samples of infected subjects into transmission clusters, based on several common definitions from the literature. We measure similarity between subjects’ island membership indices and transmission cluster membership indices with the adjusted Rand index.

Results and Conclusion

Analyses reveal modest mean correspondence between communities in graphs and phylogenetic transmission clusters. We conclude that common methods often have limited success in detecting contact network communities from phylogenies. The rarely-fulfilled requirement that network communities correspond to clades in the phylogeny is their main drawback. Understanding the link between transmission clusters and communities in sexual contact networks could help inform policymaking to curb HIV incidence in MSMs.     

The Correlation Structure of Local Neuronal Networks Intrinsically Results from Recurrent Dynamics

Correlated neuronal activity is a natural consequence of network connectivity and shared inputs to pairs of neurons, but the task-dependent modulation of correlations in relation to behavior also hints at a functional role. Correlations influence the gain of postsynaptic neurons, the amount of information encoded in the population activity and decoded by readout neurons, and synaptic plasticity. Further, it affects the power and spatial reach of extracellular signals like the local-field potential. A theory of correlated neuronal activity accounting for recurrent connectivity as well as fluctuating external sources is currently lacking. In particular, it is unclear how the recently found mechanism of active decorrelation by negative feedback on the population level affects the network response to externally applied correlated stimuli. Here, we present such an extension of the theory of correlations in stochastic binary networks. We show that (1) for homogeneous external input, the structure of correlations is mainly determined by the local recurrent connectivity, (2) homogeneous external inputs provide an additive, unspecific contribution to the correlations, (3) inhibitory feedback effectively decorrelates neuronal activity, even if neurons receive identical external inputs, and (4) identical synaptic input statistics to excitatory and to inhibitory cells increases intrinsically generated fluctuations and pairwise correlations. We further demonstrate how the accuracy of mean-field predictions can be improved by self-consistently including correlations. As a byproduct, we show that the cancellation of correlations between the summed inputs to pairs of neurons does not originate from the fast tracking of external input, but from the suppression of fluctuations on the population level by the local network. This suppression is a necessary constraint, but not sufficient to determine the structure of correlations; specifically, the structure observed at finite network size differs from the prediction based on perfect tracking, even though perfect tracking implies suppression of population fluctuations.     

Transmission Dynamics of an SIS Model with Age Structure on Heterogeneous Networks

Infection age is often an important factor in epidemic dynamics. In order to realistically analyze the spreading mechanism and dynamical behavior of epidemic diseases, in this paper, a generalized disease transmission model of SIS type with age-dependent infection and birth and death on a heterogeneous network is discussed. The model allows the infection and recovery rates to vary and depend on the age of infection, the time since an individual becomes infected. We address uniform persistence and find that the model has the sharp threshold property, that is, for the basic reproduction number less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, while for the basic reproduction number is above one, a Lyapunov functional is used to show that the endemic equilibrium is globally stable. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate and complement the main results. The disease dynamics rely not only on the network structure, but also on an age-dependent factor (for some key functions concerned in the model).     

Dynamics and Structure in Cell Signaling Networks: Off-State Stability and Dynamically Positive Cycles

The signaling system is a fundamental part of the cell, as it regulates essential functions including growth, differentiation, protein synthesis, and apoptosis. A malfunction in this subsystem can disrupt the cell significantly, and is believed to be involved in certain diseases, with cancer being a very important example. While the information available about intracellular signaling networks is constantly growing, and the network topology is actively being analyzed, the modeling of the dynamics of such a system faces difficulties due to the vast number of parameters, which can prove hard to estimate correctly. As the functioning of the signaling system depends on the parameters in a complex way, being able to make general statements based solely on the network topology could be especially appealing. We study a general kinetic model of the signaling system, giving results for the asymptotic behavior of the system in the case of a network with only activatory interactions. We also investigate the possible generalization of our results for the case of a more general model including inhibitory interactions too. We find that feedback cycles made up entirely of activatory interactions (which we call dynamically positive) are especially important, as their properties determine whether the system has a stable signal-off state, which is desirable in many situations to avoid autoactivation due to a noisy environment. To test our results, we investigate the network topology in the Signalink database, and find that the human signaling network indeed has only significantly few dynamically positive cycles, which agrees well with our theoretical arguments.