自回归移动平均模型在医疗服务需求预测中的应用

目的 拟合医疗服务需求时间序列资料的预测模型。方法 采用自回归移动平均模型对出院人次进行模型拟合。结果 模型拟合得到的最优模型为一阶自回归移动平均模型,模型预测2020年某市三甲医院的出院总人次将为93.88万人次。结论 自回归移动平均模型适用于出院总人次时间序列模型拟合,预测结果显示,在没有外来干预因素影响的情况下,三甲医院出院总人次将会延续2009年以前的上升趋势继续上涨。     

Detection of Change Points in Time Series with Moving Average Filters and Wavelet Transform: Application to EEG Signals

Neurophysiology - We investigated change point detection (CPD) in time series composed of harmonic functions driven by Gaussian noise (in EEGs, in particular) and proposed a method of moving...     

A Generalized Concordance Correlation Coefficient Based on the Variance Components Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Overdispersed Count Data

Summary The classical concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to measure agreement among a set of observers assumes data to be distributed as normal and a linear relationship between the mean and the subject and observer effects. Here, the CCC is generalized to afford any distribution from the exponential family by means of the generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) theory and applied to the case of overdispersed count data. An example of CD34+ cell count data is provided to show the applicability of the procedure. In the latter case, different CCCs are defined and applied to the data by changing the GLMM that fits the data. A simulation study is carried out to explore the behavior of the procedure with a small and moderate sample size.     

Pattern Detection in Intensive Care Monitoring Time Series with Autoregressive Models: Influence of the Model Order

The detection of patterns in monitoring data of vital signs is of great importance for adequate bedside decision support in critical care. Currently used alarm systems, which are based on fixed thresholds and independency assumptions, are not satisfactory in clinical practice. Time series techniques such as AR‐models consider autocorrelations within the series, which can be used for pattern recognition in the data. For practical applications in intensive care the data analysis has to be automated. An important issue is the suitable choice of the model order which is difficult to accomplish online. In a comparative case‐study we analyzed 34564 univariate time series of hemodynamic variables in critically ill patients by autoregressive models of different orders and compared the results of pattern detection. AR(2)‐models seem to be most suitable for the detection of clinically relevant patterns, thus affirming that treating the data as independent leads to false alarms. Moreover, using AR(2)‐models affords only short estimation periods. These findings for pattern detection in intensive care data are of medical importance as they justify a preselection of a model order, easing further automated statistical online analysis.     

Zero-Altered and other Regression Models for Count Data with Added Zeros

On occasion, generalized linear models for counts based on Poisson or overdispersed count distributions may encounter lack of fit due to disproportionately large frequencies of zeros. Three alternative types of regression models that utilize all the information and explicitly account for excess zeros are examined and given general formulations. A simple mechanism for added zeros is assumed that directly motivates one type of model, here called the added-zero type, particular forms of which have been proposed independently by D. LAMBERT (1992) and in unpublished work by the author. An original regression formulation (the zero-altered model) is presented as a reduced form of the two-part model for count data, which is also discussed. It is suggested that two-part models be used to aid in development of an added-zero model when the latter is thought to be appropriate.     

Semiparametric Transformation Models for Panel Count Data with Dependent Observation Process

This paper presents a class of semiparametric transformation models for regression analysis of panel count data when the observation times or process may differ from subject to subject and more importantly, may contain relevant information about the underlying recurrent event. The models are much more flexible than the existing ones and include many commonly used models as special cases. For estimation of regression parameters, some estimating equations are developed and the resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. An extensive simulation study was conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is provided.     

Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data

Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908–2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area (‘progression of migration’) and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908–1969, 1970–1990, 1991–2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals.     

Local Influence to Detect Influential Data Structures for Generalized Linear Mixed Models

This article discusses the generalization of the local influence measures for normally distributed responses to local influence measures for generalized linear models with random effects. For these models, it is shown that the subject-oriented influence measure is a special case of the proposed observation-oriented influence measure. A two-step diagnostic procedure is proposed. The first step is to search for influential subjects. A search for influential observations is proposed as the second step. An illustration of a two-treatment, multiple-period crossover trial demonstrates the practical importance of the detection of influential observations in addition to the detection of influential subjects.     

Pattern‐Mixture Zero‐Inflated Mixed Models for Longitudinal Unbalanced Count Data with Excessive Zeros

Analysis of longitudinal data with excessive zeros has gained increasing attention in recent years; however, current approaches to the analysis of longitudinal data with excessive zeros have primarily focused on balanced data. Dropouts are common in longitudinal studies; therefore, the analysis of the resulting unbalanced data is complicated by the missing mechanism. Our study is motivated by the analysis of longitudinal skin cancer count data presented by Greenberg, Baron, Stukel, Stevens, Mandel, Spencer, Elias, Lowe, Nierenberg, Bayrd, Vance, Freeman, Clendenning, Kwan, and the Skin Cancer Prevention Study Group[New England Journal of Medicine 323 , 789–795]. The data consist of a large number of zero responses (83% of the observations) as well as a substantial amount of dropout (about 52% of the observations). To account for both excessive zeros and dropout patterns, we propose a pattern‐mixture zero‐inflated model with compound Poisson random effects for the unbalanced longitudinal skin cancer data. We also incorporate an autoregressive of order 1 correlation structure in the model to capture longitudinal correlation of the count responses. A quasi‐likelihood approach has been developed in the estimation of our model. We illustrated the method with analysis of the longitudinal skin cancer data.     

An Efficient Alternative to Average Ranks for Testing with Incomplete Ranking Data

In this paper we consider the setting where a group of n judges are to independently rank a series of k objects, but the intended complete rankings are not realized and we are faced with analyzing randomly incomplete ranking vectors. In this paper we propose a new testing procedure for dealing with such data realizations. We concentrate on the problem of testing for no differences in the objects being ranked (i.e., they are indistinguishable) against general alternatives, but our approach could easily be extended to restricted (e.g., ordered or umbrella) alternatives. Using an improvement of a preliminary screening approach previously proposed by the authors, we present an algorithm for computation of the relevant Friedman‐type statistic in the general alternatives setting and present the results of an extensive simulation study comparing the new procedure with the standard approach of imputing average within‐judge ranks to the unranked objects.     

多反应变量重复测量的混合效应模型及其应用

本文给出了多反应变量重复测量的协方差矩阵结构,探讨了用迭代广义最小二乘法来求解其带协变量和不带协变量的混合效应模型中固定效应和随机效应系数,并对１９９１年四川省高血压调查资料进行实例分析,得到其结论符合实际情况．     

Heteroscedastic Nonlinear Regression Models with Random Effects and Their Application to Enzyme Kinetic Data

We present a new modification of nonlinear regression models for repeated measures data with heteroscedastic error structures by combining the transform-both-sides and weighting model from Caroll and Ruppert (1988) with the nonlinear random effects model from Lindstrom and Bates (1990). The proposed parameter estimators are a combination of pseudo maximum likelihood estimators for the transform-both-sides and weighting model and maximum likelihood (ML) or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimators for linear mixed effects models. The new method is investigated by analyzing simulated enzyme kinetic data published by Jones (1993).     

A Novel Approach for Measuring the Burden of Uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum Malaria: Application to Data from Zambia

Measurement of malaria burden is fraught with complexity, due to the natural history of the disease, delays in seeking treatment or failure of case management. Attempts to establish an appropriate case definition for a malaria episode has often resulted in ambiguities and challenges because of poor information about treatment seeking, patterns of infection, recurrence of fever and asymptomatic infection. While the primary reason for treating malaria is to reduce disease burden, the effects of treatment are generally ignored in estimates of the burden of malaria morbidity, which are usually presented in terms of numbers of clinical cases or episodes, with the main data sources being reports from health facilities and parasite prevalence surveys. The use of burden estimates that do not consider effects of treatment, leads to under-estimation of the impact of improvements in case management. Official estimates of burden very likely massively underestimate the impact of the roll-out of ACT as first-line therapy across Africa. This paper proposes a novel approach for estimating burden of disease based on the point prevalence of malaria attributable disease, or equivalently, the days with malaria fever in unit time. The technique makes use of data available from standard community surveys, analyses of fever patterns in malaria therapy patients, and data on recall bias. Application of this approach to data from Zambia for 2009–2010 gave an estimate of 2.6 (95% credible interval: 1.5–3.7) malaria attributable fever days per child-year. The estimates of recall bias, and of the numbers of days with illness contributing to single illness recalls, could be applied more generally. To obtain valid estimates of the overall malaria burden using these methods, there remains a need for surveys to include the whole range of ages of hosts in the population and for data on seasonality patterns in confirmed case series.     

Testing for Mediation Effect with Application to Human Microbiome Data

Statistics in Biosciences - Mediation analysis has been commonly used to study the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. In this paper, we are interested in exploring the...     

Robust Data Driven Model Order Estimation for Independent Component Analysis of fMRI Data with Low Contrast to Noise

Independent component analysis (ICA) has been successfully utilized for analysis of functional MRI (fMRI) data for task related as well as resting state studies. Although it holds the promise of becoming an unbiased data-driven analysis technique, a few choices have to be made prior to performing ICA, selection of a method for determining the number of independent components (nIC) being one of them. Choice of nIC has been shown to influence the ICA maps, and various approaches (mostly relying on information theoretic criteria) have been proposed and implemented in commonly used ICA analysis packages, such as MELODIC and GIFT. However, there has been no consensus on the optimal method for nIC selection, and many studies utilize arbitrarily chosen values for nIC. Accurate and reliable determination of true nIC is especially important in the setting where the signals of interest contribute only a small fraction of the total variance, i.e. very low contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), and/or very focal response. In this study, we evaluate the performance of different model order selection criteria and demonstrate that the model order selected based upon bootstrap stability of principal components yields more reliable and accurate estimates of model order. We then demonstrate the utility of this fully data-driven approach to detect weak and focal stimulus-driven responses in real data. Finally, we compare the performance of different multi-run ICA approaches using pseudo-real data.     

A Generalized Class of Synthetic Estimators with Application to Crop Acreage Estimation for Small Domains

This paper defines and discusses a generalized class of synthetic estimators for small domains, using auxiliary information, under simple random sampling and stratified random sampling schemes. The generalized class of synthetic estimators, among others, includes the simple, ratio and product synthetic estimators. The proposed class of synthetic estimators gives consistent estimators if the synthetic assumption holds. Further, it demonstrates the use of the generalized synthetic and ratio synthetic estimators for estimating crop acreage for small domains and also compare their relative performance with direct estimators, empirically, through a simulation study.