自回归移动平均模型在医疗服务需求预测中的应用

目的 拟合医疗服务需求时间序列资料的预测模型。方法 采用自回归移动平均模型对出院人次进行模型拟合。结果 模型拟合得到的最优模型为一阶自回归移动平均模型,模型预测2020年某市三甲医院的出院总人次将为93.88万人次。结论 自回归移动平均模型适用于出院总人次时间序列模型拟合,预测结果显示,在没有外来干预因素影响的情况下,三甲医院出院总人次将会延续2009年以前的上升趋势继续上涨。     

Detection of Change Points in Time Series with Moving Average Filters and Wavelet Transform: Application to EEG Signals

Neurophysiology - We investigated change point detection (CPD) in time series composed of harmonic functions driven by Gaussian noise (in EEGs, in particular) and proposed a method of moving...     

Zero-Altered and other Regression Models for Count Data with Added Zeros

On occasion, generalized linear models for counts based on Poisson or overdispersed count distributions may encounter lack of fit due to disproportionately large frequencies of zeros. Three alternative types of regression models that utilize all the information and explicitly account for excess zeros are examined and given general formulations. A simple mechanism for added zeros is assumed that directly motivates one type of model, here called the added-zero type, particular forms of which have been proposed independently by D. LAMBERT (1992) and in unpublished work by the author. An original regression formulation (the zero-altered model) is presented as a reduced form of the two-part model for count data, which is also discussed. It is suggested that two-part models be used to aid in development of an added-zero model when the latter is thought to be appropriate.     

Semiparametric Transformation Models for Panel Count Data with Dependent Observation Process

This paper presents a class of semiparametric transformation models for regression analysis of panel count data when the observation times or process may differ from subject to subject and more importantly, may contain relevant information about the underlying recurrent event. The models are much more flexible than the existing ones and include many commonly used models as special cases. For estimation of regression parameters, some estimating equations are developed and the resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. An extensive simulation study was conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is provided.     

Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data

Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908–2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area (‘progression of migration’) and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908–1969, 1970–1990, 1991–2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals.     

多反应变量重复测量的混合效应模型及其应用

本文给出了多反应变量重复测量的协方差矩阵结构,探讨了用迭代广义最小二乘法来求解其带协变量和不带协变量的混合效应模型中固定效应和随机效应系数,并对１９９１年四川省高血压调查资料进行实例分析,得到其结论符合实际情况．     

A Novel Approach for Measuring the Burden of Uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum Malaria: Application to Data from Zambia

Measurement of malaria burden is fraught with complexity, due to the natural history of the disease, delays in seeking treatment or failure of case management. Attempts to establish an appropriate case definition for a malaria episode has often resulted in ambiguities and challenges because of poor information about treatment seeking, patterns of infection, recurrence of fever and asymptomatic infection. While the primary reason for treating malaria is to reduce disease burden, the effects of treatment are generally ignored in estimates of the burden of malaria morbidity, which are usually presented in terms of numbers of clinical cases or episodes, with the main data sources being reports from health facilities and parasite prevalence surveys. The use of burden estimates that do not consider effects of treatment, leads to under-estimation of the impact of improvements in case management. Official estimates of burden very likely massively underestimate the impact of the roll-out of ACT as first-line therapy across Africa. This paper proposes a novel approach for estimating burden of disease based on the point prevalence of malaria attributable disease, or equivalently, the days with malaria fever in unit time. The technique makes use of data available from standard community surveys, analyses of fever patterns in malaria therapy patients, and data on recall bias. Application of this approach to data from Zambia for 2009–2010 gave an estimate of 2.6 (95% credible interval: 1.5–3.7) malaria attributable fever days per child-year. The estimates of recall bias, and of the numbers of days with illness contributing to single illness recalls, could be applied more generally. To obtain valid estimates of the overall malaria burden using these methods, there remains a need for surveys to include the whole range of ages of hosts in the population and for data on seasonality patterns in confirmed case series.     

Robust Data Driven Model Order Estimation for Independent Component Analysis of fMRI Data with Low Contrast to Noise

Independent component analysis (ICA) has been successfully utilized for analysis of functional MRI (fMRI) data for task related as well as resting state studies. Although it holds the promise of becoming an unbiased data-driven analysis technique, a few choices have to be made prior to performing ICA, selection of a method for determining the number of independent components (nIC) being one of them. Choice of nIC has been shown to influence the ICA maps, and various approaches (mostly relying on information theoretic criteria) have been proposed and implemented in commonly used ICA analysis packages, such as MELODIC and GIFT. However, there has been no consensus on the optimal method for nIC selection, and many studies utilize arbitrarily chosen values for nIC. Accurate and reliable determination of true nIC is especially important in the setting where the signals of interest contribute only a small fraction of the total variance, i.e. very low contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), and/or very focal response. In this study, we evaluate the performance of different model order selection criteria and demonstrate that the model order selected based upon bootstrap stability of principal components yields more reliable and accurate estimates of model order. We then demonstrate the utility of this fully data-driven approach to detect weak and focal stimulus-driven responses in real data. Finally, we compare the performance of different multi-run ICA approaches using pseudo-real data.     

Testing for Mediation Effect with Application to Human Microbiome Data

Statistics in Biosciences - Mediation analysis has been commonly used to study the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. In this paper, we are interested in exploring the...     

A Generalized Class of Synthetic Estimators with Application to Crop Acreage Estimation for Small Domains

This paper defines and discusses a generalized class of synthetic estimators for small domains, using auxiliary information, under simple random sampling and stratified random sampling schemes. The generalized class of synthetic estimators, among others, includes the simple, ratio and product synthetic estimators. The proposed class of synthetic estimators gives consistent estimators if the synthetic assumption holds. Further, it demonstrates the use of the generalized synthetic and ratio synthetic estimators for estimating crop acreage for small domains and also compare their relative performance with direct estimators, empirically, through a simulation study.     

Inference for the Break Point in Segmented Regression with Application to Longitudinal Data

This paper considers inference for the break point in the segmented regression or piece‐wise regression model. Standard likelihood theory does not apply because the break point is absent under the null hypothesis. We use results by Davies for this type of non‐standard set‐up [Biometrika 64 (1977), 247–254 and 74 (1987), 33–43] to obtain a test for the null hypothesis of no break point. A confidence interval can be constructed provided replicate data are available. The methods are exemplified using two longitudinal datasets, the one from ecology, the other from pharmacology.     

SPHARA - A Generalized Spatial Fourier Analysis for Multi-Sensor Systems with Non-Uniformly Arranged Sensors: Application to EEG

Important requirements for the analysis of multichannel EEG data are efficient techniques for signal enhancement, signal decomposition, feature extraction, and dimensionality reduction. We propose a new approach for spatial harmonic analysis (SPHARA) that extends the classical spatial Fourier analysis to EEG sensors positioned non-uniformly on the surface of the head. The proposed method is based on the eigenanalysis of the discrete Laplace-Beltrami operator defined on a triangular mesh. We present several ways to discretize the continuous Laplace-Beltrami operator and compare the properties of the resulting basis functions computed using these discretization methods. We apply SPHARA to somatosensory evoked potential data from eleven volunteers and demonstrate the ability of the method for spatial data decomposition, dimensionality reduction and noise suppression. When employing SPHARA for dimensionality reduction, a significantly more compact representation can be achieved using the FEM approach, compared to the other discretization methods. Using FEM, to recover 95% and 99% of the total energy of the EEG data, on average only 35% and 58% of the coefficients are necessary. The capability of SPHARA for noise suppression is shown using artificial data. We conclude that SPHARA can be used for spatial harmonic analysis of multi-sensor data at arbitrary positions and can be utilized in a variety of other applications.     

DETECT: A MATLAB Toolbox for Event Detection and Identification in Time Series,with Applications to Artifact Detection in EEG Signals

Recent advances in sensor and recording technology have allowed scientists to acquire very large time-series datasets. Researchers often analyze these datasets in the context of events, which are intervals of time where the properties of the signal change relative to a baseline signal. We have developed DETECT, a MATLAB toolbox for detecting event time intervals in long, multi-channel time series. Our primary goal is to produce a toolbox that is simple for researchers to use, allowing them to quickly train a model on multiple classes of events, assess the accuracy of the model, and determine how closely the results agree with their own manual identification of events without requiring extensive programming knowledge or machine learning experience. As an illustration, we discuss application of the DETECT toolbox for detecting signal artifacts found in continuous multi-channel EEG recordings and show the functionality of the tools found in the toolbox. We also discuss the application of DETECT for identifying irregular heartbeat waveforms found in electrocardiogram (ECG) data as an additional illustration.     

A Unified Method for Detecting Secondary Trait Associations with Rare Variants: Application to Sequence Data

Next-generation sequencing has made possible the detection of rare variant (RV) associations with quantitative traits (QT). Due to high sequencing cost, many studies can only sequence a modest number of selected samples with extreme QT. Therefore association testing in individual studies can be underpowered. Besides the primary trait, many clinically important secondary traits are often measured. It is highly beneficial if multiple studies can be jointly analyzed for detecting associations with commonly measured traits. However, analyzing secondary traits in selected samples can be biased if sample ascertainment is not properly modeled. Some methods exist for analyzing secondary traits in selected samples, where some burden tests can be implemented. However p-values can only be evaluated analytically via asymptotic approximations, which may not be accurate. Additionally, potentially more powerful sequence kernel association tests, variable selection-based methods, and burden tests that require permutations cannot be incorporated. To overcome these limitations, we developed a unified method for analyzing secondary trait associations with RVs (STAR) in selected samples, incorporating all RV tests. Statistical significance can be evaluated either through permutations or analytically. STAR makes it possible to apply more powerful RV tests to analyze secondary trait associations. It also enables jointly analyzing multiple cohorts ascertained under different study designs, which greatly boosts power. The performance of STAR and commonly used RV association tests were comprehensively evaluated using simulation studies. STAR was also implemented to analyze a dataset from the SardiNIA project where samples with extreme low-density lipoprotein levels were sequenced. A significant association between LDLR and systolic blood pressure was identified, which is supported by pharmacogenetic studies. In summary, for sequencing studies, STAR is an important tool for detecting secondary-trait RV associations.     

A Framework for Regularized Non-Negative Matrix Factorization,with Application to the Analysis of Gene Expression Data

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) condenses high-dimensional data into lower-dimensional models subject to the requirement that data can only be added, never subtracted. However, the NMF problem does not have a unique solution, creating a need for additional constraints (regularization constraints) to promote informative solutions. Regularized NMF problems are more complicated than conventional NMF problems, creating a need for computational methods that incorporate the extra constraints in a reliable way. We developed novel methods for regularized NMF based on block-coordinate descent with proximal point modification and a fast optimization procedure over the alpha simplex. Our framework has important advantages in that it (a) accommodates for a wide range of regularization terms, including sparsity-inducing terms like the penalty, (b) guarantees that the solutions satisfy necessary conditions for optimality, ensuring that the results have well-defined numerical meaning, (c) allows the scale of the solution to be controlled exactly, and (d) is computationally efficient. We illustrate the use of our approach on in the context of gene expression microarray data analysis. The improvements described remedy key limitations of previous proposals, strengthen the theoretical basis of regularized NMF, and facilitate the use of regularized NMF in applications.     

A Dictionary Learning Approach with Overlap for the Low Dose Computed Tomography Reconstruction and Its Vectorial Application to Differential Phase Tomography

X-ray based Phase-Contrast Imaging (PCI) techniques have been demonstrated to enhance the visualization of soft tissues in comparison to conventional imaging methods. Nevertheless the delivered dose as reported in the literature of biomedical PCI applications often equals or exceeds the limits prescribed in clinical diagnostics. The optimization of new computed tomography strategies which include the development and implementation of advanced image reconstruction procedures is thus a key aspect. In this scenario, we implemented a dictionary learning method with a new form of convex functional. This functional contains in addition to the usual sparsity inducing and fidelity terms, a new term which forces similarity between overlapping patches in the superimposed regions. The functional depends on two free regularization parameters: a coefficient multiplying the sparsity-inducing norm of the patch basis functions coefficients, and a coefficient multiplying the norm of the differences between patches in the overlapping regions. The solution is found by applying the iterative proximal gradient descent method with FISTA acceleration. The gradient is computed by calculating projection of the solution and its error backprojection at each iterative step. We study the quality of the solution, as a function of the regularization parameters and noise, on synthetic data for which the solution is a-priori known. We apply the method on experimental data in the case of Differential Phase Tomography. For this case we use an original approach which consists in using vectorial patches, each patch having two components: one per each gradient component. The resulting algorithm, implemented in the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility tomography reconstruction code PyHST, has proven to be efficient and well-adapted to strongly reduce the required dose and the number of projections in medical tomography.     

Application of Markov Chain Model to Calculate the Average Number of Times of Use of a Material in Society. An Allocation Methodology for Open-Loop Recycling. Part 2: Case Study for Steel (6 pp)

- Preamble. In this series of two papers, a methodology to calculate the average number of times a material is used in a society from cradle to grave is presented and applied to allocation of environmental impact of virgin material. Part 1 focused on methodology development and showed how the methodology works with hypothetical examples of material flows. Part 2 presents case studies for steel recycling in Japan, in which the methodology is applied and allocation of environmental impact of virgin steel is conducted. - Abstract Goal, Scope and Background. The life cycle of steel begins with the mining of iron ore from the earth. Steel is produced in steel works and used in various products. Some of the steels are recycled at the products' end of life and used as a resource for the production of new steel in electric furnaces, while the remaining steel is used just once in products before being discarded (landfilled). In this paper, case studies were conducted to analyze the average number of times the element of iron is used and its residence time in society, in which the methodology developed in Part 1 of the paper was applied. CO2 emissions caused by steel productions and recycling were allocated by the number of times the element of steel is used in a society. Results and Discussion On the basis of the material flows of steel in Japan in 2000, it was calculated that at least 70% of the BF crude iron produced in Japan in 2000 was ultimately exported. On the assumption that steel is used in other countries in the same way as it is in Japan, the average number of times of use and the residence time of elemental iron in society are 2.67 and 62.9 years, respectively. Both of these values depend significantly on the recycling ratios of steel from construction and automobiles. Our model indicated that if the recycling ratio of steel from civil engineering and construction increased from 50% to 60%, the average number of times used would increase to 3.17 and the residence time of elemental iron in society would increase to 75.8 years. If CO2 emissions caused by steel productions and recycling are allocated by the number of times the element of steel is used in a society, it was calculated that steel use of one time generates in average an environmental burden of 1.03 t-CO2/t. Conclusion A method was developed to calculate the average number of times a material is used in a society from cradle to grave. Our methodology is based on Markov chain model using matrix-based numerical analysis, and has been successfully applied to steel. The results obtained by this methodology, i.e. the average number of times the element of iron is used in society, could be used for allocation of environmental burdens of virgin material as well as an indicator for assessing the state of material use in a certain year, based on material flow of material in that year. Recommendation and Perspective It is recognized that further researches must be conducted to gather data on steel production, use, and recovery in other countries and incorporate them into the transition probability matrix to obtain more precise results. Although this paper deals only with steel, this method can also be applied to other materials.     

A Unified Stepwise Regression Procedure for Evaluating the Relative Effects of Polymorphisms within a Gene Using Case/Control or Family Data: Application to HLA in Type 1 Diabetes

A stepwise logistic-regression procedure is proposed for evaluation of the relative importance of variants at different sites within a small genetic region. By fitting statistical models with main effects, rather than modeling the full haplotype effects, we generate tests, with few degrees of freedom, that are likely to be powerful for detecting primary etiological determinants. The approach is applicable to either case/control or nuclear-family data, with case/control data modeled via unconditional and family data via conditional logistic regression. Four different conditioning strategies are proposed for evaluation of effects at multiple, closely linked loci when family data are used. The first strategy results in a likelihood that is equivalent to analysis of a matched case/control study with each affected offspring matched to three pseudocontrols, whereas the second strategy is equivalent to matching each affected offspring with between one and three pseudocontrols. Both of these strategies require you be able to infer parental phase (i.e., those haplotypes present in the parents). Families in which phase cannot be determined must be discarded, which can considerably reduce the effective size of a data set, particularly when large numbers of loci that are not very polymorphic are being considered. Therefore, a third strategy is proposed in which knowledge of parental phase is not required, which allows those families with ambiguous phase to be included in the analysis. The fourth and final strategy is to use conditioning method 2 when parental phase can be inferred and to use conditioning method 3 otherwise. The methods are illustrated using nuclear-family data to evaluate the contribution of loci in the HLA region to the development of type 1 diabetes.