科尔沁沙地东部农牧交错带土地承载力研究--以科尔沁左翼后旗为例

科尔沁左翼后旗位于科尔沁沙地东部农牧交错带,生态环境复杂、脆弱,资源、人口和环境的协调发展至关重要,其土地承载力状况是协调三者关系的重要依据。本文应用系统动力学原理,以1995年为起始年份建立了系统动力学模型(SD模型),包括人口、土地资源、种植业、林业、畜牧业、渔业和消费等7个子系统。选择3种人口增长速度和3种营养水平组成9种方案,通过模型的运行预测了科左后旗未来50年人口的动态变化和最大土地资源承载力,并对1995—2000年实际的人口发展状况和生态状况进行了讨论。研究显示,科左后旗土地承载力46．7l—74．5l万人,不同的方案达到最大承载力的时间不同,指出控制人口增长是实现经济环境协调发展的必要条件,科左后旗的实际人口增长控制较好,现有的环境问题是不合理的开发活动造成的。     

中学生物课结合人口教育初探

对中学生进行人口科学基础知识及我国人口政策教育,是中学基础教育的重要内容。按照国家教委制订的九年义务教学计划规定,人口教育在初中阶段不单独设课;高中阶段采用必修和选修、集中和分散相结合的方法,即在思想政治课、地理课和生物课中结合讲授有关的人口知识和政策,使学生受到人口教育。 1987年七月世界人口达到50亿,1988年七月亚洲人口达到30亿,我国是世界上人口最多的国家。目前人口问题的严峻形势,控制人口增长的紧迫感,已为广大中学教师所认识,对中学生进行人口教育的重要性也已引起教师们的重视。在生物课内结合人口教育,决不是脱离教学大纲、教学内容附加的东西,而是生物教学自身必然的要求,是生物教学为四     

半坡人殺女婴吗?——《原始社会人口控制之谜》商榷

伴随着人们对社会人口问题关心程度的增长,探讨古代人口的性别、年龄结构,已成为历史研究的一项重要课题。《化石》1980年第4期发表的《原始社会人口控制之谜》(以下简称《控制之谜》),通过对我国黄河中下游几处新石器时代墓地死者性别统计资料的分析,探讨了原始社会在控制人口方面的历史经验,首次提出了“原始人也实行人口控制”的新命题,其用心无疑是值得称许的。     

泛长三角地区碳生态效率的空间格局及影响因素

碳生态效率反映碳排放产出的经济社会价值高低,是衡量可持续发展水平的重要指标。以泛长三角各市为对象,以揭示碳排放的经济社会效益为目标,构建经济产出效率和人口承载效率评估指标,研究碳生态效率的空间格局和影响因素。结果表明：经济产出效率和人口承载效率呈现不同的变化趋势和空间格局,2000-2014年,经济产出效率增长97%,人口承载效率下降68%,前者空间集聚度高于后者;核心区及部分沿江城市的经济产出效率较高、增长较快,人口承载效率较低、下降较慢,碳生态效率高于其他城市;经济产出和人口承载效率的影响因素类似、作用强度和方向不同,前者主要受产业结构促进,后者的影响因素包括但不限于产业结构,但产业结构优化抑制了人口承载效率提升。研究认为,经济和社会视角的碳生态效率变化趋势及影响因素作用方向存在差异,为通过政策调控实现经济和社会效益同步提升增加了难度,在推动经济增长的同时,进一步加快人口集聚、优化产业结构和能源结构、提高能源利用效率等是政策制定的优选方向。     

国产第一代hCG避孕疫苗研制成功

人口问题是２１世纪确定的可持续发展战略的首要问题。我国是人口大国，控制人口数量、提高人口素质，使人口增长与经济发展相适应，将是实现国家经济建设和社会发展的关键因素之一。因此，计划生育是我国的一项基本国策。实施计划生育一靠政策，二靠科技。开发简单易行、...     

长江中游大城市不透水面增长模式及其驱动因素

以1995、2003、2010、2015年4期遥感影像数据为基础,对武汉、长沙、南昌为例的长江中游城市20年不透水面增长及驱动因素进行研究。结果表明,三城市不透水面增长显著,接近预警水平,格局呈突围扩张的基本态势;现阶段武汉不透水面主要为城郊面源"零星"增长模式贡献较大;长沙、南昌则主要来源于新城"线式"延伸及其内部"面式"填充模式;道路投资、区划政策、城市规划控制、固定资产投资、房产投资、人口增长、透水技术等是影响三城市不透水增长的主要因素,但各因素影响敏感度在三城市中又有差异;三城市可从强化城乡规划的管理措施、控制过热的房地投资经济政策措施、平衡区域人口格局的社会政策措施以及推广透水材料和技术的科技措施等方面来缓解不透水率的增长。     

但愿人长久

联合国预测全球人口2050年为93亿,2010年将达到101亿。其中居住在贫民窟的人口到2010年已经增长到8.276亿。联合国对人口增长、资源消耗和气候变化最乐观的预测,到2030年,人类将需要2个地球以吸收排放的二氧化碳并满足对自然资源的消耗。全球有3亿人为森林居民,1000万人在森林管理和保护行业就业。WWF预测,如果人类不作为,从2010-2050年全球累计毁林面积将达2.32亿公顷(232万平方公里)。     

人类生态学(二):食物问题

人口持续高速增长,使越来越多的人在考虑这样一个问题:人口增长是否有一定的限度?回答是肯定的。因为人口增长和生物种群的增长一样,都不能超过环境负荷量,否则就会发生强制性和灾难性死亡。不同的是,人类可以通过改造环境,适当提高环境负荷量,并能自觉控制出生率。而生物则只能靠自然反馈机制和灾难性死亡来调节自身的种群密度。当然,提高环境负荷量也有一定限度,因为地球资源毕竟是有限的。对人类来说,决定地球负荷量的主要因素是食物、淡水、能源、矿物资源、环境(如水体、大气、气候、生物、居住空间)、疾病、天灾、战争和经济发展等。其中食物是最基本的,也是限制人口增长的关键因素之一。从全球角度探索食物生产的现状和未来,是人类生态学研究的一个重要组成部分。     

人口与社会-经济-自然复合生态系统的持续发展——伊春市人口的系统分析与调控对策

本文讨论了人口与社会-经济-自然复合生态系统持续发展的关系,指出了人口问题是决定复合生态系统持续发展的关键因素。只有人口与复合生态系统的各个方面相互适应,复合生态系统持续发展的目标才能得以实现。本文以伊春市为实例,系统地分析了伊春人口的发展过程,采用系统动力学的方法,建立了伊春人口的系统动力学模型,并以此模型对伊春人口进行了系统仿真和预测,同时提出了解决伊春人口问题的调控对策。     

基于土地利用变化的长春市生态风险评价

基于长春市1985年、2000年和2015年的Landsat TM遥感影像, 提取3个时相的土地利用类型数据, 通过构建网格尺度下的生态风险指数, 借助空间分析、地统计分析等方法定量评价长春市土地利用变化下的生态风险时空演变特征, 并应用地理探测器对其影响因子进行探测。结果表明: (1)1985—2015年, 长春市土地利用变化明显, 建设用地持续扩张, 耕地波动式收缩; 土地利用中耕地转为建设用地、林地与耕地间的相互转换是地类转移的主要形式; (2)长春市土地利用生态风险呈小幅下降趋势, 在地域内呈现西高东低的分异特征, 生态风险热、冷点区空间分布相对稳定并具有一定程度扩张趋势; (3)生态风险快速增长时期, 经济、人口与发展活力的空间格局成为长春市生态风险的主导因子, 而海拔与三者的协同作用进一步增强了生态风险的解释力。总体来看, 建设用地扩张会加剧中心城区生态风险, 但与区域整体生态风险增高并不存在必然联系; 为防止高风险区持续扩张, 城市应设定“增长边界”、转变空间发展方式、高效集约利用建设用地, 加强城市生态系统自然保育、防止景观破碎化, 实现城市可持续发展。     

粘虫迁出与迁入种群的行为和生理特性比较

系统比较了田间粘虫Mythimnaseparata (Walker)迁出与迁入种群在飞行能力、 飞行肌干重、卵巢发育、交配以及保幼激素滴度等指标的差异。结果显示,迁出种群的飞行潜 力显著强于迁入种群,雌蛾中胸背纵肌平均干重（6.53 mg）也显著高于迁入种群（5.92 mg ）,但卵巢发育程度显著低于迁入种群;迁出种群的交配率和平均交配次数均显著低于迁入种 群;早期迁入的雌蛾卵巢发育级别和交配率相对较低,并随迁入时间的延长而增加。迁出与迁入 种群雌蛾的保幼激素滴度也存在显著差异,两者的JHⅡ滴度平均分别为4.63 ng/mg和8.69 ng/mg。这些结果说明,粘虫迁飞前后的行为、生理和生殖特性具有明显的变化,迁出种群具有较强的飞行潜力,生殖系统的发育受到暂时性抑制;而迁入种群飞行能力下降,卵巢发育级别 较高,交配率增加。同一世代早期迁入的雌蛾卵巢发育程度较低,表明粘虫迁飞是发生在成虫 发育的初期,迁飞过程中卵巢发育受到暂时性抑制,迁入以后便迅速发育并开始繁殖。粘虫迁 飞的行为和生理特性与“卵子发生 飞行拮抗综合症候(oogenesisi flight syndrome)”相符 。内分泌激素（保幼激素）在其迁飞与生殖的转换过程中起着重要的调控作用。     

Quantifying immigrant diversity in Europe

The notion of increasing immigrant diversity is prevalent in immigration literature. However, little empirical research has examined if immigrant populations have become more diverse during the past two decades. Using data from Pew Research Center's Global Religion and Migration Database and the World Bank's Global Bilateral Migration Database, origin and religious change in immigrant populations since 1990 is presented for six European countries. Findings demonstrate that immigrant origin and religious diversity has been relatively stable during the past ten years, with moderate increases during the 1990s. Further research can examine whether these patterns are true for other countries or what happens when alternative variables are considered.     

宁夏盐池县半农半牧区草原畜群发展预测分析

本文利用系统动力学方法和灰色系统理论,建立了盐池县草原畜群发展动态模型。通过计算机模拟,可找出控制滩羊与山羊数景发展的敏感参数。认为在控制畜群数量的同时,经济效益亦可得到提高。     

Genetic diversity and genetic differentiation in Daphnia metapopulations with subpopulations of known age

If colonization of empty habitat patches causes genetic bottlenecks, freshly founded, young populations should be genetically less diverse than older ones that may have experienced successive rounds of immigration. This can be studied in metapopulations with subpopulations of known age. We studied allozyme variation in metapopulations of two species of water fleas (Daphnia) in the skerry archipelago of southern Finland. These populations have been monitored since 1982. Screening 49 populations of D. longispina and 77 populations of D. magna, separated by distances of 1.5-2180 m, we found that local genetic diversity increased with population age whereas pairwise differentiation among pools decreased with population age. These patterns persisted even after controlling for several potentially confounding ecological variables, indicating that extinction and recolonization dynamics decrease local genetic diversity and increase genetic differentiation in these metapopulations by causing genetic bottlenecks during colonization. We suggest that the effect of these bottlenecks may be twofold, namely decreasing genetic diversity by random sampling and leading to population-wide inbreeding. Subsequent immigration then may not only introduce new genetic material, but also lead to the production of noninbred hybrids, selection for which may cause immigrant alleles to increase in frequency, thus leading to increased genetic diversity in older populations.     

Population growth rate as a basis for ecological risk assessment of toxic chemicals

Assessing the ecological risks of toxic chemicals is most often based on individual-level responses such as survival, reproduction or growth. Such an approach raises the following questions with regard to translating these measured effects into likely impacts on natural populations. (i) To what extent do individual-level variables underestimate or overestimate population-level responses? (ii) How do toxicant-caused changes in individual-level variables translate into changes in population dynamics for species with different life cycles? (iii) To what extent are these relationships complicated by population-density effects? These issues go to the heart of the ecological relevance of ecotoxicology and we have addressed them using the population growth rate as an integrating concept. Our analysis indicates that although the most sensitive individual-level variables are likely to be equally or more sensitive to increasing concentrations of toxic chemicals than population growth rate, they are difficult to identify a priori and, even if they could be identified, integrating impacts on key life-cycle variables via population growth rate analysis is nevertheless a more robust approach for assessing the ecological risks of chemicals. Populations living under density-dependent control may respond differently to toxic chemicals than exponentially growing populations, and greater care needs to be given to incorporating realistic density conditions (either experimentally or by simulation) into ecotoxicological test designs. It is impractical to expect full life-table studies, which record changes in survival, fecundity and development at defined intervals through the life cycle of organisms under specified conditions, for all relevant species, so we argue that population growth rate analysis should be used to provide guidance for a more pragmatic and ecologically sound approach to ecological risk assessment.     

The island model with stochastic migration

The island model with stochastically variable migration rate and immigrant gene frequency is investigated. It is supposed that the migration rate and the immigrant gene frequency are independent of each other in each generation, and each of them is independently and identically distributed in every generation. The treatment is confined to a single diallelic locus without mutation. If the diploid population is infinite, selection is absent and the immigrant gene frequency is fixed, then the gene frequency on the island converges to the immigrant frequency, and the logarithm of the absolute value of its deviation from it is asymptotically normally distributed. Assuming only neutrality, the evolution of the exact mean and variance of the gene frequency are derived for an island with finite population. Selection is included in the diffusion approximation: if all evolutionary forces have comparable roles, the gene frequency will be normally distributed at all times. All results in the paper are completely explicit.     

2006年安庆地区褐飞虱大发生特点及其原因分析

2006年褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens Stl大发生的特点主要有:迁入虫量大、回迁峰次明显;短翅型成虫发生早、虫口高;田间种群增长迅速,全市普遍重发,局部暴发;田块间虫口差异大。分析认为导致大发生的主要原因是:丰富的初迁虫源奠定了大发生的基础;褐飞虱生物型变化,食料条件丰富;单季稻面积扩大,从食料和生境2个方面为褐飞虱发生提供利好条件;褐飞虱对主治药剂吡虫啉产生抗性,促进褐飞虱暴发。还就加强异地监测、抗药性监测、田间调查等,提出建议。     

Cultivation Fosters Plant Naturalization by Reducing Environmental Stochasticity

A large fraction of the immigrant (or founder) populations of terrestrial plants are small (< 10⁴) and are acutely sensitive to environmental stochasticity. As a result, they undergo radical size fluctuations during a prolonged lag phase that almost always result in their extirpation. Naturalizations are those rare examples in which an immigrant population increases above a threshold size such that the consequences of environmental stochasticity are markedly lower. The likelihood that a non-indigenous population will reach this threshold size would be enhanced substantially through either deliberate or inadvertent cultivation. Cultivation (e.g. protection from predators, parasites, drought, frost) shields small immigrant populations from the extreme expressions of environmental stochasticity. In addition, cultivation can preserve through seed storage a residual non-indigenous population from which new populations can be established. As disseminules are spread locally, and even regionally, immigrant populations sample a wide variety of micro-habitats, thus increasing the likelihood that some plants will survive even without cultivation. Origins of naturalized floras in Australia and the US reveal a strong circumstantial link between cultivation and subsequent naturalization: the single largest group of naturalized species was deliberately introduced as either crops, forage spp., or ornamentals. Another group was introduced inadvertently as contaminants in crop seeds. This correspondence between cultivation and subsequent naturalization provides a common demographic explanation for non-indigenous plant persistence that largely transcends species’ attributes and the commonly ascribed features of communities that are vulnerable to the entry of non-indigenous plants. Humans have played a more profound role in fostering plant naturalizations than by acting simply as plant dispersers; their post-immigration cultivation fosters much naturalization. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Emergence of Regional Immigrant Concentrations in USA and Australia: A Spatial Relatedness Approach

This paper examines the patterns of the US and Australian immigration geography and the process of regional population diversification and the emergence of new immigrant concentrations at the regional level. It presents a new approach in the context of human migration studies, focusing on spatial relatedness between individual foreign-born groups as revealed from the analysis of their joint spatial concentrations. The approach employs a simple assumption that the more frequently the members of two population groups concentrate in the same locations the higher is the probability that these two groups can be related. Based on detailed data on the spatial distribution of foreign-born groups in US counties (2000–2010) and Australian postal areas (2006–2011) we firstly quantify the spatial relatedness between all pairs of foreign-born groups and model the aggregate patterns of US and Australian immigration systems conceptualized as the undirected networks of foreign-born groups linked by their spatial relatedness. Secondly, adopting a more dynamic perspective, we assume that immigrant groups with higher spatial relatedness to those groups already concentrated in a region are also more likely to settle in this region in future. As the ultimate goal of the paper, we examine the power of spatial relatedness measures in projecting the emergence of new immigrant concentrations in the US and Australian regions. The results corroborate that the spatial relatedness measures can serve as useful instruments in the analysis of the patterns of population structure and prediction of regional population change. More generally, this paper demonstrates that information contained in spatial patterns (relatedness in space) of population composition has yet to be fully utilized in population forecasting.     

Breast cancer screening among Asian immigrant women in Canada

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine the pattern of breast cancer screening among Asian immigrant women aged 50–69 years and compare it with corresponding non-immigrant women in Canada. Methods: Data from the Canadian Community Health Survey cycle 2.1 (2003) were utilized. Self-reported screening histories were used as outcome variables: socioeconomic status and medical histories were used as predictive variables. Analyses were weighted to represent the target population. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to compare the screening pattern among Asian immigrant women and corresponding non-immigrant Canadians. Results: In total, 508 Asian immigrant women were included in this study. The results suggest that 71% and 60% of Asian immigrant women reported ever having had and recent mammogram use, respectively, while the corresponding figures for non-immigrant women were 89% and 72%. The observed differences were statistically significant and could not be explained by confounding factors. The ability to speak one of the two official languages is an important barrier to mammography screening among Asian immigrant women. Conclusion: The findings show lower rates of mammography screening among Asian immigrant women in Canada. If breast screening is to remain a health policy objective in Canada, targeted efforts to increase the recruitment of Asian immigrant women need to be developed or strengthened.