Variable Classification of Drug-Intoxication Suicides across US States: A Partial Artifact of Forensics?

Background

The 21^st-century epidemic of pharmaceutical and other drug-intoxication deaths in the United States (US) has likely precipitated an increase in misclassified, undercounted suicides. Drug-intoxication suicides are highly prone to be misclassified as accident or undetermined. Misclassification adversely impacts suicide and other injury mortality surveillance, etiologic understanding, prevention, and hence clinical and public health policy formation and practice.

Objective

To evaluate whether observed variation in the relative magnitude of drug-intoxication suicides across US states is a partial artifact of the scope and quality of toxicological testing and type of medicolegal death investigation system.

Methods

This was a national, state-based, ecological study of 111,583 drug-intoxication fatalities, whose manner of death was suicide, accident, or undetermined. The proportion of (nonhomicide) drug-intoxication deaths classified by medical examiners and coroners as suicide was analyzed relative to the proportion of death certificates citing one or more specific drugs and two types of state death investigation systems. Our model incorporated five sociodemographic covariates. Data covered the period 2008–2010, and derived from NCHS’s Multiple Cause-of-Death public use files.

Results

Across states, the proportion of drug-intoxication suicides ranged from 0.058 in Louisiana to 0.286 in South Dakota and the rate from 1 per 100,000 population in North Dakota to 4 in New Mexico. There was a low correlation between combined accident and undetermined drug-intoxication death rates and corresponding suicide rates (Spearman’s rho = 0.38; p<0.01). Citation of 1 or more specific drugs on the death certificate was positively associated with the relative odds of a state classifying a nonhomicide drug-intoxication death as suicide rather than accident or undetermined, adjusting for region and type of state death investigation system (odds ratio, 1.062; 95% CI,1.016–1.110). Region, too, was a significant predictor. Relative to the South, a 10% increase in drug citation was associated with 43% (95% CI,11%-83%), 41% (95% CI,7%-85%), and 33% (95% CI,1%-76%) higher odds of a suicide classification in the West, Midwest, and Northeast, respectively.

Conclusion

Large interstate variation in the relative magnitude of nonhomicide drug-intoxication deaths classified as suicide by medical examiners and coroners in the US appears partially an artifact of geographic region and degree of toxicological assessment in the case ascertainment process. Etiologic understanding and prevention of drug-induced suicides and other drug-intoxication deaths first require rigorous standardization involving accurate concepts, definitions, and case ascertainment.     

Has the mortality of male doctors improved with the reductions in their cigarette smoking?

From 1951 to 1971 male doctors reduced their cigarette smoking more than did men in social classes I and II combined. In 1970-2, 665 male doctors died aged under 65. Had they shown the same improvements in cause-specific death rates over the 20 years as men in classes I and II, 699 deaths would have been expected. This "saving" of 34 deaths in the doctors comprised savings from coronary heart disease (83), stroke (16), and lung cancer (8) balanced by 60 "losses" from three stress-related causes--namely, accident, poisonings, etc (30); suicide (26); and cirrhosis of the liver (4)--plus 13 from other causes. As a relative reduction in mortality from heart disease in doctors (as compared with that in social classes I and II) also occurred during 1931-51--that is, before they began to give up smoking--some of the saving in heart-disease deaths in 1951-71 was probably not related to changes in smoking habits. The relative worsening in mortality from stress-related diseases may have been due partly to a possible adverse effect of giving up smoking if smoking had acted to reduce stress. From these findings, the benefits of giving up smoking may not be so great as has commonly been assumed.     

Virginity Testing: Managing Sexuality in a Maturing HIV/AIDS Epidemic

KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa is currently the site of the world's fastest growing HIV/AIDS epidemic, where it is estimated that between 30 and 40 percent of the adult population is seropositive for HIV. With support from local politicians and members of various government ministries, several self-styled guardians of tradition have emerged to form organizations that advocate and conduct regular virginity testing of girls. Reference to the current HIV/AIDS epidemic is central to calls for greater support of this practice. Drawing on original research among Zulu-speaking people in the periurban communities of Durban, this article examines the sociocultural construction of HIV/AIDS and locates the growing popularity of virginity testing within a gendered meaning-making process consistent with commonly held beliefs that the epidemic is the result of women being sexually "out of control." With the social impact of AIDS starting to take its toll in the forms of increasing AIDS-related deaths and a growing population of orphans, I argue that virginity testing is an attempt to manage the epidemic by exerting greater control over women and their sexuality. In addition, virginity testing of girls helps to draw attention away from the role of men in the maturing epidemic, consideration of which has been conspicuously absent in the popular discourse on AIDS at all levels of South African society.     

The Impact of Media Reporting on the Emergence of Charcoal Burning Suicide in Taiwan

We investigated the association of the intensity of newspaper reporting of charcoal burning suicide with the incidence of such deaths in Taiwan during 1998–2002. A counting process approach was used to estimate the incidence of suicides and intensity of news reporting. Conditional Poisson generalized linear autoregressive models were performed to assess the association of the intensity of newspaper reporting of charcoal burning and non-charcoal burning suicides with the actual number of charcoal burning and non-charcoal burning suicides the following day. We found that increases in the reporting of charcoal burning suicide were associated with increases in the incidence of charcoal burning suicide on the following day, with each reported charcoal burning news item being associated with a 16% increase in next day charcoal burning suicide (p<.0001). However, the reporting of other methods of suicide was not related to their incidence. We conclude that extensive media reporting of charcoal burning suicides appears to have contributed to the rapid rise in the incidence of the novel method in Taiwan during the initial stage of the suicide epidemic. Regulating media reporting of novel suicide methods may prevent an epidemic spread of such new methods.     

A Short-Term Population Model of the Suicide Risk: The Case of Spain

A relevant proportion of deaths by suicide have been attributed to other causes that produce the number of suicides remains hidden. The existence of a hidden number of cases is explained by the nature of the problem. Problems like this involve violence, and produce fear and social shame in victims’ families. The existence of violence, fear and social shame experienced by victims favours a considerable number of suicides, identified as accidents or natural deaths. This paper proposes a short time discrete compartmental mathematical model to measure the suicidal risk for the case of Spain. The compartment model classifies and quantifies the amount of the Spanish population within the age intervals (16, 78) by their degree of suicide risk and their changes over time. Intercompartmental transits are due to the combination of quantitative and qualitative factors. Results are computed and simulations are performed to analyze the sensitivity of the model under uncertain coefficients.     

Suicide among Arab-Americans

Background

Arab-American (AA) populations in the US are exposed to discrimination and acculturative stress—two factors that have been associated with higher suicide risk. However, prior work suggests that socially oriented norms and behaviors, which characterize recent immigrant ethnic groups, may be protective against suicide risk. Here we explored suicide rates and their determinants among AAs in Michigan, the state with the largest proportion of AAs in the US.

Methodology/Principal Findings

ICD-9/10 underlying cause of death codes were used to identify suicide deaths from among all deaths in Michigan between 1990 and 2007. Data from the 2000 U.S. Census were collected for population denominators. Age-adjusted suicide rates among AAs and non-ethnic whites were calculated by gender using the direct method of standardization. We also stratified by residence inside or outside of Wayne County (WC), the county with the largest AA population in the state. Suicide rates were 25.10 per 100,000 per year among men and 6.40 per 100,000 per year among women in Michigan from 1990 to 2007. AA men had a 51% lower suicide rate and AA women had a 33% lower rate than non-ethnic white men and women, respectively. The suicide rate among AA men in WC was 29% lower than in all other counties, while the rate among AA women in WC was 20% lower than in all other counties. Among non-ethnic whites, the suicide rate in WC was higher compared to all other counties among both men (12%) and women (16%).

Conclusions/Significance

Suicide rates were higher among non-ethnic white men and women compared to AA men and women in both contexts. Arab ethnicity may protect against suicide in both sexes, but more so among men. Additionally, ethnic density may protect against suicide among Arab-Americans.     

The Evolution of the Epidemic of Charcoal-Burning Suicide in Taiwan: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

Background

An epidemic of carbon monoxide poisoning suicide by burning barbecue charcoal has occurred in East Asia in the last decade. We investigated the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic to assess its impact on the epidemiology of suicide in Taiwan.

Methods and Findings

Age-standardised rates of suicide and undetermined death by charcoal burning were mapped across townships (median population aged 15 y or over = 27,000) in Taiwan for the periods 1999–2001, 2002–2004, and 2005–2007. Smoothed standardised mortality ratios of charcoal-burning and non-charcoal-burning suicide and undetermined death across townships were estimated using Bayesian hierarchical models. Trends in overall and method-specific rates were compared between urban and rural areas for the period 1991–2007. The epidemic of charcoal-burning suicide in Taiwan emerged more prominently in urban than rural areas, without a single point of origin, and rates of charcoal-burning suicide remained highest in the metropolitan regions throughout the epidemic. The rural excess in overall suicide rates prior to 1998 diminished as rates of charcoal-burning suicide increased to a greater extent in urban than rural areas.

Conclusions

The charcoal-burning epidemic has altered the geography of suicide in Taiwan. The observed pattern and its changes in the past decade suggest that widespread media coverage of this suicide method and easy access to barbecue charcoal may have contributed to the epidemic. Prevention strategies targeted at these factors, such as introducing and enforcing guidelines on media reporting and restricting access to charcoal, may help tackle the increase of charcoal-burning suicides. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Social capital externalities and mortality in Sweden

We conceptualize social capital as an aggregate factor affecting health production and analyze the effect of community social capital (CSC) externalities on individual mortality risk in Sweden. The study was based on a random sample from the adult Swedish population of approximately 95,000 individuals who were followed up for 4-21 years. Two municipality-level variable--registered election participation rate and registered crime rate--were used to be a proxy for CSC. The impact of CSC on mortality was estimated with an extended Cox model, controlling for the initial health status and a number of individual characteristics. The results indicate that both proxies of CSC were associated with individual risk from all-cause mortality for males older than 65+ (p=0.013 and p=0.008) but not for females. A higher election participation rate negatively and significantly associated with the mortality risk from cancer for males (p=0.007), and may also have exerted protective associations for cardiovascular mortality (p=0.134) and deaths due to "suicide" (p=0.186) or "other external causes" (p=0.055). Similar associations were observed for the crime rate variable. The findings were robust to alternative specifications examined in the sensitivity analysis.     

Ecological study of social fragmentation,poverty, and suicide

ObjectivesTo investigate the association between suicide and area based measures of deprivation and social fragmentation.DesignEcological study.Setting633 parliamentary constituencies of Great Britain as defined in 1991.ResultsMortality from suicide and all other causes increased with increasing Townsend deprivation score, social fragmentation score, and abstention from voting in all age and sex groups. Suicide mortality was most strongly related to social fragmentation, whereas deaths from other causes were more closely associated with Townsend score. Constituencies with absolute increases in social fragmentation and Townsend scores between 1981 and 1991 tended to have greater increases in suicide rates over the same period. The relation between change in social fragmentation and suicide was largely independent of Townsend score, whereas the association with Townsend score was generally reduced after adjustment for social fragmentation.ConclusionsSuicide rates are more strongly associated with measures of social fragmentation than with poverty at a constituency level.

Key messages

• Place of residence may affect health, and mortality from most common diseases tends to be higher in areas characterised by low socioeconomic position
• Research dating back over 100 years suggests that social fragmentation may influencesuicide
• In the 1980s and 1990s, parliamentary constituencies with high levels of social fragmentation had high rates of suicide, independent of deprivation
• Constituencies with the greatest increases in social fragmentation between 1981 and 1991 also had the greatest increases in suicide rates over the same period
• Any targeting of suicide prevention may be more effective if aimed at socially fragmented rather than deprived areas

     

Diagnosing Suicides of Resolve: Psychiatric Practice in Contemporary Japan

In Japan, suicide has long been depicted as an act of free will, even aestheticized in the cultural notion suicide of resolve. Amid the record-high Japanese suicide rates since the 1990s, however, Japanese psychiatrists have been working to medicalize suicide and, in the process, confronting this deeply ingrained cultural notion. Drawing on two years of fieldwork at psychiatric institutions around Tokyo, I examine how psychiatrists try to persuade patients of the pathological nature of their suicidal intentions and how patients respond to such medicalization. I also explore psychiatrists' ambivalent attitudes toward pathologizing suicide and how they limit their biomedical jurisdiction by treating only what they regard as biological anomaly, while carefully avoiding the psychological realm. One ironic consequence of this medicalization may be that psychiatrists are reinforcing the dichotomy between normal and pathological, "pure" and "trivial," suicides, despite their clinical knowledge of the tenuousness of such distinctions and the ephemerality of human intentionality. Thus, while the medicalization of suicide is cultivating a conceptual space for Japanese to debate how to bring the suicidal back onto the side of life, it scarcely seems poised to supplant the cultural discourse on suicide that has elevated suicide to a moral act of self-determination.     

Disparities in COVID-19 mortality by county racial composition and the role of spring social distancing measures

Available COVID-19 data shows higher shares of cases and deaths occur among Black Americans, but reporting of data by race is poor. This paper investigates disparities in county-level mortality rates across counties with higher and lower than national average Black population shares using nonlinear regression decomposition and estimates potential differential impact of social distancing measures. I find counties with Black population shares above the national share have mortality rates 2 to 3 times higher than in other counties. Observable differences in living conditions, health, and work characteristics reduce the disparity to approximately 1.25 to 1.65 overall, and explain 100% of the disparity at 21 days after the first case. Though higher rates of comorbidities in counties with higher Black population shares are an important predictor, living situation factors like single parenthood and population density are just as important. Higher rates of co-residence with grandchildren explain 11% of the 21 day disparity but do not appear important by 42 days, suggesting families may have been better able to protect vulnerable family members later in the epidemic. To analyze differential effects of social distancing measures use two approaches. First, I exploit the timing of interventions relative to the first case among counties that began their epidemic at the same time. Second, I use event study analysis to analyze within-county changes in mortality. Findings for social distancing measures are not always consistent across approaches. Overall, I find no evidence that school closures were less effective in counties with larger Black population shares, and some estimates suggest closures may have disproportionately helped more diverse counties and counties with high rates of grandparent and grandchild co-residence. Conversely, stay at home orders are less clearly associated with mortality in any counties, reaching peak unemployment did not reduce mortality in any models, and some estimates indicate reaching peak unemployment before the first case was associated with higher mortality rates, especially in more diverse counties.     

Too Lonely to Die Alone: Internet Suicide Pacts and Existential Suffering in Japan

Most striking in the recent rise of suicide in Japan are the increase in suicide among young Japanese and the emergence of Internet suicide pacts. An ethnography of suicide-related Web sites reveals a distinctive kind of existential suffering among visitors that is not reducible to categories of mental illness and raises questions regarding the meaning of an individual “choice” to die, when this occurs in the context of an intersubjective decision by a group of strangers, each of whom is too afraid to die alone. Anthropology’s recent turn to subjectivity enables analyses of individual suffering in society that provide a more nuanced approach to the apparent dichotomy between agency and structure and that connect the phenomenon of suicide in Japan to Japanese conceptions of selfhood and the afterlife. The absence of ikigai [the worth of living] among suicide Web site visitors and their view of suicide as a way of healing show, furthermore, that analyses of social suffering must be expanded to include questions of meaning and loss of meaning and, also, draw attention to Japanese conceptions of self in which relationality in all things, including the choice to die, is of utmost importance.

Mortality among male anaesthetists in the United Kingdom, 1957-83.

A cohort of 3769 male anaesthetists resident in the United Kingdom between 1957 and 1983 was followed up for a total of 51,431 person years of observation. All subjects were fellows of the Faculty of Anaesthetists and held full registration with the General Medical Council. With all men in social class I being taken as the standard, the standardised mortality ratio among anaesthetists for all causes of death was 68 (95% confidence interval 59 to 77) and the standardised mortality ratio for all cancers was 50 (95% confidence interval 36 to 67). There was no significant excess mortality from lymphomas or leukaemias, but 16 of the 221 deaths in anaesthetists were due to suicide, giving a standardised mortality ratio of 202 (95% confidence interval 115 to 328). When anaesthetists were compared with all doctors the standardised mortality ratio for suicide was only 114, a nonsignificant excess. These findings confirm that the risk of suicide among anaesthetists is twice as high as among other men in social class I but suggest that the risk does not differ significantly from that among doctors as a whole. There was no evidence of a significant excess risk of cancer, and, in particular, the small excess of cancer of the pancreas reported previously could not be confirmed.     

Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic

Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as the number of households infected by each infected household. This method is validated by numerical simulations of the spread of influenza and measles using historical data, and estimates are obtained for would-be emerging epidemics of these viruses. I argue that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation.     

Complete genetic characterization of a Brazilian dengue virus type 3 strain isolated from a fatal outcome

We have determined the complete nucleotide and the deduced amino acid sequences of Brazilian dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3) from a dengue case with fatal outcome, which occurred during an epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2002. This constitutes the first complete genetic characterization of a Brazilian DENV-3 strain since its introduction into the country in 2001. DENV-3 was responsible for the most severe dengue epidemic in the state, based on the highest number of reported cases and on the severity of clinical manifestations and deaths reported.     

Persons, Places, and times: the meanings of repetition in an STD clinic

In this article we work the tensions between the way clinical medicine and public health necessarily construct the problem of "repetition" in the context of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic and the ways patients narrate their illness experiences. This tension-between clinical and epidemiological exigencies and the messiness of lived experience-is a recurring theme of work conducted at the intersections of epidemiology, anthropology, and clinical medicine. Clinically, repeated infections are a threat to the individual body and to "normal" biological processes like reproduction. From a public health perspective, "repeaters" are imagined to be part of a "core group" that keeps infections in circulation, endangering the social body. Yet patients' accounts are anchored in particular social histories, and their experiences rely on different time scales than those implicated in either of these types of readings. Extended analyses are provided of two such accounts: one in which repetition can be "read" as part of a performance of recovery, and one in which repetition is bound up in the effort to avoid becoming the involuntary subject of institutionally administered intervention. We argue the need to open up the category of repeaters to include the social and draw on work by Cheryl Mattingly to suggest that one way to do this in the context of the STD clinic might be to adopt forms of therapeutic practice that make use of interpretive, in addition to technical, skills.     

Death in the West — A Regional Analysis of the Youthful Suicide Rate

A remarkable increase of youthful suicides over the past few years has caused the death rate for 15- to 24-year-old adolescents and young adults to rise while there has been a reduction in mortality for all other age groups.To analyze the geographic pattern of this youthful suicide epidemic, a national interstate analysis was done for the years 1964 through 1978. Results indicate a broad regional effect with high ratings of youthful suicide concentrated in the western United States, especially among states of the intermountain region.Statistical analysis shows a strong inverse relationship between youthful suicide and population density. Previous research in this area has usually related high population density (overcrowding) to social and behavioral pathology. The present research indicates, however, that low population density (undercrowding) can also have adverse effects. These undercrowding effects may occur because of social isolation, limited social services and loneliness.     

Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data

Background

Up to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits.

Methods and findings

The analysis is based on official mortality statistics for Wales for 2000–2009 provided by the UK''s Office for National Statistics (ONS). Temporo-spatial analysis was performed using Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics with SaTScan v9.1 for suicide deaths aged 15 and over, with a sub-group analysis focussing on cases aged 15–34 years. These analyses were conducted for deaths coded by ONS as: (i) suicide or of undetermined intent (probable suicides) and (ii) for a combination of suicide, undetermined, and accidental poisoning and hanging (possible suicides). The temporo-spatial analysis did not identify any clusters of suicide or undetermined intent deaths (probable suicides). However, analysis of all deaths by suicide, undetermined intent, accidental poisoning and accidental hanging (possible suicides) identified a temporo-spatial cluster (p = 0.029) involving 10 deaths amongst 15–34 year olds centred on the County Borough of Bridgend for the period 27^th December 2007 to 19^th February 2008. Less than 1% of possible suicides in younger people in Wales in the ten year period were identified as being cluster-related.

Conclusions

There was a possible suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend between December 2007 and February 2008. This cluster was smaller, shorter in duration, and predominantly later than the phenomenon that was reported in national and international print media. Further investigation of factors leading to the onset and termination of this series of deaths, in particular the role of the media, is required.     

Nationwide study of decisions concerning the end of life in general practice in The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE--To gain insight into decisions made in general practice about the end of life. DESIGN--Study I: interviews with 405 physicians. Study II: analysis of death certificates with data obtained on 5197 cases in which decisions about the end of life may have been made. Study III: prospective study with doctors from study I: questionnaires used to collect information about 2257 deaths. The information was representative for all deaths in the Netherlands. RESULTS--Over two fifths of all patients in the Netherlands die at home. General practitioners took fewer decisions about the end of life than hospital doctors and doctors in nursing homes (34%, 40%, and 56% of all dying patients, respectively). Specifically, decisions to withhold or withdraw treatment to prolong life were taken less often. Euthanasia or assisted suicide, however, was performed in 3.2% of all deaths in general practice compared with 1.4% in hospital practice. In over half of the cases concerning pain relief or non-treatment general practitioners did not discuss the decision with the patient, mostly because of incapacity of the patient, but in 20% of cases for "paternalistic" reasons. Older general practitioners discussed such decisions less often with their patients. Colleagues were consulted more often if the general practitioner worked in group practice. CONCLUSION--Differences in work situation between general practitioners and hospital doctors and differences between the group of general practitioners contribute to differences in the number and type of decisions about the end of life as well as in the decision making process.     

Dynamics of COVID-19 under social distancing measures are driven by transmission network structure

In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing is being used worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. The impact of these measures has been inconsistent, with some regions rapidly nearing disease elimination and others seeing delayed peaks or nearly flat epidemic curves. Here we build a stochastic epidemic model to examine the effects of COVID-19 clinical progression and transmission network structure on the outcomes of social distancing interventions. Our simulations show that long delays between the adoption of control measures and observed declines in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occur in many scenarios. We find that the strength of within-household transmission is a critical determinant of success, governing the timing and size of the epidemic peak, the rate of decline, individual risks of infection, and the success of partial relaxation measures. The structure of residual external connections, driven by workforce participation and essential businesses, interacts to determine outcomes. We suggest limited conditions under which the formation of household “bubbles” can be safe. These findings can improve future predictions of the timescale and efficacy of interventions needed to control second waves of COVID-19 as well as other similar outbreaks, and highlight the need for better quantification and control of household transmission.