Dispersal and species’ responses to climate change

Dispersal is fundamental in determining biodiversity responses to rapid climate change, but recently acquired ecological and evolutionary knowledge is seldom accounted for in either predictive methods or conservation planning. We emphasise the accumulating evidence for direct and indirect impacts of climate change on dispersal. Additionally, evolutionary theory predicts increases in dispersal at expanding range margins, and this has been observed in a number of species. This multitude of ecological and evolutionary processes is likely to lead to complex responses of dispersal to climate change. As a result, improvement of models of species’ range changes will require greater realism in the representation of dispersal. Placing dispersal at the heart of our thinking will facilitate development of conservation strategies that are resilient to climate change, including landscape management and assisted colonisation. Synthesis This article seeks synthesis across the fields of dispersal ecology and evolution, species distribution modelling and conservation biology. Increasing effort focuses on understanding how dispersal influences species' responses to climate change. Importantly, though perhaps not broadly widely‐recognised, species' dispersal characteristics are themselves likely to alter during rapid climate change. We compile evidence for direct and indirect influences that climate change may have on dispersal, some ecological and others evolutionary. We emphasise the need for predictive modelling to account for this dispersal realism and highlight the need for conservation to make better use of our existing knowledge related to dispersal.     

Large‐scale,long‐term trends in British river macroinvertebrates

Rivers are among the world's most modified ecosystems, with poor water quality representing a prominent problem for over 200 years, especially in urban areas. In Western Europe, however, industrial decline, tighter regulation and improved wastewater treatment have combined over recent decades to create conditions conducive to extensive restoration and positive biological change. Here, we evaluate the river macroinvertebrate fauna of England and Wales in relation to water quality, physical habitat and climate over almost two decades. We predicted that biological recovery would be characterized by: (i) greater taxon richness and prevalence of pollution‐sensitive taxa, (ii) larger changes in more heavily urbanized catchments, and (iii) temporal trends in assemblage structure that correlated with improving water quality. Family level richness increased on average by nearly 20% during 1991–2008, accompanied by a widespread shift towards taxa characteristic of well‐oxygenated and less polluted waters. Changes were largest in the most urbanized catchments. A combination of natural gradients and anthropogenic pressures explained the variation among sites, whereas temporal changes correlated with improving water quality and variations in discharge. Positive trends were not universal, however, and there was localized deterioration in some streams draining upland areas and in the lowland south east. Our results are consistent with a large‐scale ecological recovery of English and Welsh rivers since 1990, probably continuing a trend from the mid‐20th century. Based on these results, we suggest: (i) freshwater communities are resilient to long‐term anthropogenic pressures, (ii) biodiversity benefits can arise from investment and long‐term restoration intended largely to enhance ecosystem services such as drinking water and sanitary concerns, and (iii) long‐term monitoring data collected for statutory purposes–based in this case on nearly 50 000 samples–can address scientific questions at spatial and temporal extents seldom achieved in research programmes.     

Effects of climate change on biodiversity: a review and identification of key research issues

Current knowledge of effects of climate change on biodiversity is briefly reviewed, and results are presented of a survey of biological research groups in the Netherlands, aimed at identifying key research issues in this field. In many areas of the world, biodiversity is being reduced by humankind through changes in land cover and use, pollution, invasions of exotic species and possibly climate change. Assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity is difficult, because changes occur slowly and effects of climate change interact with other stress factors already imposed on the environment. Research issues identified by Dutch scientists can be grouped into: (i) spatial and temporal distributions of taxa; (ii) migration and dispersal potentials of taxa; (iii) genetic diversity and viability of (meta) populations of species; (iv) physiological tolerance of species; (v) disturbance of functional interactions between species; and (vi) ecosystem processes. Additional research should be done on direct effects of greenhouse gases, and on interactions between effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation. There are still many gaps in our knowledge of effects of climate change on biodiversity. An interdisciplinary research programme could possibly focus only on one or few of the identified research issues, and should generate input data for predictive models based on climate change scenarios.     

Profiling urban vulnerabilities to climate change: An indicator-based vulnerability assessment for European cities

Governing climate change in cities entails a good understanding of urban vulnerabilities. This research presents an Indicator-based Vulnerability Assessment for 571 European cities. Basing on panel data from Urban Audit database and a set of newly developed indicators, we assessed urban vulnerabilities for the following impact chains: (i) heatwaves on human health; (ii) drought on water planning, and; (iii) flooding (sub-divided into pluvial, fluvial and coastal) on the socio-economic tissue and the urban fabric. Results shed light on the key challenges that specific groups of European cities face in order to better deal with the expected impacts of climate change. This knowledge is a necessary step to advance in the understanding of urban risks to climate change and the development of effective EU policies for urban adaptation.     

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost‐effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red‐listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.     

A framework for the practical science necessary to restore sustainable,resilient, and biodiverse ecosystems

Demand for restoration of resilient, self‐sustaining, and biodiverse natural ecosystems as a conservation measure is increasing globally; however, restoration efforts frequently fail to meet standards appropriate for this objective. Achieving these standards requires management underpinned by input from diverse scientific disciplines including ecology, biotechnology, engineering, soil science, ecophysiology, and genetics. Despite increasing restoration research activity, a gap between the immediate needs of restoration practitioners and the outputs of restoration science often limits the effectiveness of restoration programs. Regrettably, studies often fail to identify the practical issues most critical for restoration success. We propose that part of this oversight may result from the absence of a considered statement of the necessary practical restoration science questions. Here we develop a comprehensive framework of the research required to bridge this gap and guide effective restoration. We structure questions in five themes: (1) setting targets and planning for success, (2) sourcing biological material, (3) optimizing establishment, (4) facilitating growth and survival, and (5) restoring resilience, sustainability, and landscape integration. This framework will assist restoration practitioners and scientists to identify knowledge gaps and develop strategic research focused on applied outcomes. The breadth of questions highlights the importance of cross‐discipline collaboration among restoration scientists, and while the program is broad, successful restoration projects have typically invested in many or most of these themes. Achieving restoration ecology's goal of averting biodiversity losses is a vast challenge: investment in appropriate science is urgently needed for ecological restoration to fulfill its potential and meet demand as a conservation tool.     

The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning

The analysis of climate change impact is essential to include in conservation planning of crop wild relatives (CWR) to provide the guideline for adequate long-term protection under unpredictable future environmental conditions. These resources play an important role in sustaining the future of food security, but the evidence shows that they are threatened by climate change. The current analyses show that five taxa were predicted to have contraction of more than 30 % of their current ranges: Artocarpus sepicanus (based on RCP 4.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario and RCP 8.5 in no dispersal scenario by 2050), Ficus oleifolia (RCP 4.5 5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2080), Cocos nucifera and Dioscorea alata (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050), and Ficus chartacea (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050 and 2080). It shows that the climate change impact is species-specific. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and dispersal scenarios influence the prediction models, and the actual future distribution range of species falls in between those scenarios. Climate refugia, holdout populations, and non-analogue community assemblages were identified based on the Protected Areas (PAs) network. PAs capacity is considered an important element in implementing a conservation strategy for the priority CWR. In areas where PAs are isolated and have less possibility to build corridors to connect each other, such as in Java, unlimited dispersal scenarios are unlikely to be achieved and assisted dispersal is suggested. The holdout populations should be the priority target for the ex situ collection. Therefore, by considering the climate refugia, PAs capacity and holdout populations, the goal of keeping high genetic variations for the long-term conservation of CWR in Indonesia can be achieved.     

Guiding principles for evaluating the impacts of conservation interventions on human well-being

Measures of socio-economic impacts of conservation interventions have largely been restricted to externally defined indicators focused on income, which do not reflect people''s priorities. Using a holistic, locally grounded conceptualization of human well-being instead provides a way to understand the multi-faceted impacts of conservation on aspects of people''s lives that they value. Conservationists are engaging with well-being for both pragmatic and ethical reasons, yet current guidance on how to operationalize the concept is limited. We present nine guiding principles based around a well-being framework incorporating material, relational and subjective components, and focused on gaining knowledge needed for decision-making. The principles relate to four key components of an impact evaluation: (i) defining well-being indicators, giving primacy to the perceptions of those most impacted by interventions through qualitative research, and considering subjective well-being, which can affect engagement with conservation; (ii) attributing impacts to interventions through quasi-experimental designs, or alternative methods such as theory-based, case study and participatory approaches, depending on the setting and evidence required; (iii) understanding the processes of change including evidence of causal linkages, and consideration of trajectories of change and institutional processes; and (iv) data collection with methods selected and applied with sensitivity to research context, consideration of heterogeneity of impacts along relevant societal divisions, and conducted by evaluators with local expertise and independence from the intervention.     

The impact of biomass crop cultivation on temperate biodiversity

The urgency for mitigation actions in response to climate change has stimulated policy makers to encourage the rapid expansion of bioenergy, resulting in major land‐use changes over short timescales. Despite the potential impacts on biodiversity and the environment, scientific concerns about large‐scale bioenergy production have only recently been given adequate attention. Environmental standards or legislative provisions in the majority of countries are still lagging behind the rapid development of energy crops. Ranging from the field to the regional scale, this review (i) summarizes the current knowledge about the impact of biomass crops on biodiversity in temperate regions, (ii) identifies knowledge gaps and (iii) drafts guidelines for a sustainable biomass crop production with respect to biodiversity conservation. The majority of studies report positive effects on biodiversity at the field scale but impacts strongly depend on the management, age, size and heterogeneity of the biomass plantations. At the regional scale, significant uncertainties exist and there is a major concern that extensive commercial production could have negative effects on biodiversity, in particular in areas of high nature‐conservation value. However, integration of biomass crops into agricultural landscapes could stimulate rural economy, thus counteracting negative impacts of farm abandonment or supporting restoration of degraded land, resulting in improved biodiversity values. Given the extent of landconversion necessary to reach the bioenergy targets, the spatial layout and distribution of biomass plantations will determine impacts. To ensure sustainable biomass crop production, biodiversity would therefore have to become an essential part of risk assessment measures in all those countries which have not yet committed to making it an obligatory part of strategic landscape planning. Integrated environmental and economic research is necessary to formulate standards that help support long‐term economic and ecological sustainability of biomass production and avoid costly mistakes in our attempts to mitigate climate change.     

Mapping tree species vulnerability to multiple threats as a guide to restoration and conservation of tropical dry forests

Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait‐based scoring approach to estimate species‐specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species‐specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species’ distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species‐specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user‐friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions.     

Primate Seed Dispersal and Forest Restoration: An African Perspective for a Brighter Future

Primate seed dispersal is a vital, but complex, ecological process that involves many interacting agents and plays important roles in the maintenance of old-growth forest, as well as in the development of regenerating forest. Focusing primarily on African examples, in this article we briefly review the ecological process of primate seed dispersal, highlighting understudied and contentious topics, and then we discuss how our knowledge on primate seed dispersal can promote both forest restoration and primate conservation. Though it is frequently claimed that primates are critically important for the maintenance of diverse tropical forest ecosystems, we believe that more empirical evidence is needed to support this claim. Confounding factors can often be difficult to rule out and long-term studies extending beyond the seedling or sapling stage are very rare. In addition, though primates are critical for initial seed dispersal of many tree species, spatial and temporal variation in post-deposition processes, such as secondary seed dispersal and predation by rodents, can dramatically alter the initial patterns generated by primates. However, given the need for immediate conservation action to prevent further primate extinctions, we advocate that the knowledge about primate seed dispersal be used in formulating informed conservation plans. One prominent area where this knowledge will prove extremely valuable is in forest restoration efforts. To aid in the development of such efforts, we pose five questions, the answers to which will help facilitate forest restoration becoming a useful tool in strategies designed to conserve primates.     

Review of the ecology of Australian urban fauna: A focus on spatially explicit processes

Abstract Cities have a major impact on Australian landscapes, especially in coastal regions, to the detriment of native biodiversity. Areas suitable for urban development often coincide with those areas that support high levels of species diversity and endemism. However, there is a paucity of reliable information available to guide urban conservation planning and management, especially regarding the trade‐off between investing in protecting and restoring habitat at the landscape level, and investing in programmes to maintain the condition of remnant vegetation at the local (site) level. We review the literature on Australian urban ecology, focusing on urban terrestrial and aquatic vertebrate and invertebrate fauna. We identify four main factors limiting our knowledge of urban fauna: (i) a lack of studies focusing at multiple ecological levels; (ii) a lack of multispecies studies; (iii) an almost total absence of long‐term (temporal) studies; and (iv) a need for stronger integration of research outcomes into urban conservation planning and management. We present a set of key principles for the development of a spatially explicit, long‐term approach to urban fauna research. This requires an understanding of the importance of local‐level habitat quality and condition relative to the composition, configuration and connectivity of habitats within the larger urban landscape. These principles will ultimately strengthen urban fauna management and conservation planning by enabling us to prioritize and allocate limited financial resources to maximize the conservation return.     

Community‐based native seed production for restoration in Brazil – the role of science and policy

• Large‐scale restoration programmes in the tropics require large volumes of high quality, genetically diverse and locally adapted seeds from a large number of species. However, scarcity of native seeds is a critical restriction to achieve restoration targets.
• In this paper, we analyse three successful community‐based networks that supply native seeds and seedlings for Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado restoration projects. In addition, we propose directions to promote local participation, legal, technical and commercialisation issues for up‐scaling the market of native seeds for restoration with high quality and social justice.
• We argue that effective community‐based restoration arrangements should follow some principles: (i) seed production must be based on real market demand; (ii) non‐governmental and governmental organisations have a key role in supporting local organisation, legal requirements and selling processes; (iii) local ecological knowledge and labour should be valued, enabling local communities to promote large‐scale seed production; (iv) applied research can help develop appropriate techniques and solve technical issues.
• The case studies from Brazil and principles presented here can be useful for the up‐scaling restoration ecology efforts in many other parts of the world and especially in tropical countries where improving rural community income is a strategy for biodiversity conservation and restoration.

     

Mediterranean island biodiversity and climate change: the last 10,000 years and the future

Mediterranean islands (MI) are hotspots of global biodiversity and lie in one of the most susceptible to climate change (CC) areas of the world; a big challenge for any conservation strategy. In fact, there is already increasing evidence for CC in the region and associated biological responses in MI ecosystems. These include phenological changes and upward elevation shifts of species and plant communities; although evidence is frequently contrasting for different taxa. Threats are also evident, mainly for endemic species from most taxonomic groups, while communities in mountain and coastal regions are likely to be affected most. For MI conservation under CC additional factors need to be considered: (i) their position at the crossroads of three continents; with which they share common environmental characteristics, (ii) their great variability in sizes and topography and (iii) their climatic differences; with a clear west-east basin divide. CC synergies with changing tourist aspiration and agricultural practices will, in the medium term, modify island landscapes and provide further challenges for biodiversity conservation. Such a combined impact from CC, land-use change, fragmentation of habitats and tourism is difficult to predict. Furthermore, the limited space on islands (especially habitat availability and climatic range limitations) imposes a barrier to species range expansion. Thus, conservation of MI biodiversity under CC requires: (i) future research to focus on improved climate predictions linked to improved understanding of ecological (climate-biotic) responses, incorporating lessons learnt from (island) biogeography, (ii) specific adaptation measures for spatial planning and improvement in regional institutional capacities.     

A meta‐analysis of dispersal in butterflies

Dispersal has recently gained much attention because of its crucial role in the conservation and evolution of species facing major environmental changes such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change, and their interactions. Butterflies have long been recognized as ideal model systems for the study of dispersal and a huge amount of data on their ability to disperse has been collected under various conditions. However, no single ‘best’ method seems to exist leading to the co‐occurrence of various approaches to study butterfly mobility, and therefore a high heterogeneity among data on dispersal across this group. Accordingly, we here reviewed the knowledge accumulated on dispersal and mobility in butterflies, to detect general patterns. This meta‐analysis specifically addressed two questions. Firstly, do the various methods provide a congruent picture of how dispersal ability is distributed across species? Secondly, is dispersal species‐specific? Five sources of data were analysed: multisite mark‐recapture experiments, genetic studies, experimental assessments, expert opinions, and transect surveys. We accounted for potential biases due to variation in genetic markers, sample sizes, spatial scales or the level of habitat fragmentation. We showed that the various dispersal estimates generally converged, and that the relative dispersal ability of species could reliably be predicted from their relative vagrancy (records of butterflies outside their normal habitat). Expert opinions gave much less reliable estimates of realized dispersal but instead reflected migration propensity of butterflies. Within‐species comparisons showed that genetic estimates were relatively invariable, while other dispersal estimates were highly variable. This latter point questions dispersal as a species‐specific, invariant trait.     

Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences

Climate change effects on biodiversity are already manifested, and yet no predictive knowledge characterizes the likely nature of these effects. Previous studies suggested an influence of topography on these effects, a possibility tested herein. Bird species with distributions restricted to montane (26 species) and Great Plains (19 species) regions of central and western North America were modeled, and climate change effects on their distributions compared: in general, plains species were more heavily influenced by climate change, with drastic area reductions (mode 35% of distributional area lost under assumption of no dispersal) and dramatic spatial movements (0–400 km shift of range centroid under assumption of no dispersal) of appropriate habitats. These results suggest an important generality regarding climate change effects on biodiversity, and provide useful guidelines for conservation planning.     

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.     

Delineating landscape-scale processes of hydrology and plant dispersal for species-rich fen conservation: the Operational Landscape Unit approach

Restoration and conservation of species-rich nature reserves requires inclusion of landscape-scale connections and transport processes such as hydrologic flows and species dispersal. These are important because they provide suitable habitat conditions and an adequate species pool. This study aimed at identifying the key hydrologic flows and plant dispersal processes affecting a landscape with species-rich fen reserves where restoration measures are carried out to set back succession. It also intended to use this information for delineating the area relevant for conservation planning on an Operational Landscape Unit map. The study was carried out for complexes of fen ponds in former turbaries in the Vechtplassen area, The Netherlands. A number of recent insights on plant dispersal were integrated with knowledge on hydrologic flows in the present approach. The results showed that groundwater discharge to ensure mesotrophic, base-rich conditions, should be enhanced by restoring the groundwater recharge areas NE of the reserves. A nearby lake with suitable water chemistry was also identified as a key source of surface water to feed the fens in dry periods. Water dispersal was identified as important within the fen reserves, whereas dispersal by daily migrating dabbling ducks, typically occurring over 2–3 km, was the most important route connecting the reserves with the surrounding landscape. The delineation of the Operational Landscape Unit for this region provides a basis for conservation and restoration that take fundamental landscape connections and transport processes into account. This unique approach simultaneously considers hydrological transport processes as well as species dispersal in the larger landscape beyond the reserves themselves and therefore leads to greater success of restoration and conservation.     

Going against the flow: a case for upstream dispersal and detection of uncommon dispersal events

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Climate change and plant dispersal along corridors in fragmented landscapes of Mesoamerica

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity, and adaptation measures should be considered in biodiversity conservation planning. Protected areas (PA) are expected to be impacted by climate change and improving their connectivity with biological corridors (BC) has been proposed as a potential adaptation measure, although assessing its effectiveness remains a challenge. In Mesoamerica, efforts to preserve the biodiversity have led to the creation of a regional network of PA and, more recently, BC. This study evaluates the role of BC for facilitating plant dispersal between PA under climate change in Mesoamerica. A spatially explicit dynamic model (cellular automaton) was developed to simulate species dispersal under different climate and conservation policy scenarios. Plant functional types (PFT) were defined based on a range of dispersal rates and vegetation types to represent the diversity of species in the region. The impacts of climate change on PA and the role of BC for dispersal were assessed spatially. Results show that most impacted PA are those with low altitudinal range in hot, dry, or high latitude areas. PA with low altitudinal range in high cool areas benefit the most from corridors. The most important corridors cover larger areas and have high altitude gradients. Only the fastest PFT can keep up with the expected change in climate and benefit from corridors for dispersal. We conclude that the spatial assessment of the vulnerability of PA and the role of corridors in facilitating dispersal can help conservation planning under a changing climate.