Combining the effects of biological invasion and climate change into systematic conservation planning for the Atlantic Forest

Biological invasions and climate changes are the major causes of changes in biodiversity, which reduce, shift, and extinguish species ranges. While climate changes have been widely used in systematic conservation planning (SCP), biological invasions are rarely considered. Here, we combine the effects of climate changes and Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam. (Moraceae) invasion on the SCP for endemic aromatic fruit tree species from the Atlantic Forest (EFAF). We tested the effect of invasion on SCP measures of species turnover, biotic stability, and irreplaceability. Ecological niche models were used to establish species environmental suitability for the preindustrial period for both invasive species and EFAF and to forecast to the end of the century (2080–2100). We calculated the niche overlap between the invasive species and EFAF and tested the overlap significance using a null model. We tested the biological invasion effect on the results using results with no species invasion correction. The niche overlap between A. heterophyllus and EFAF was significant for 50% of species in the preindustrial period and for 33% in the future. The spatial patterns of species turnover, biotic stability, and irreplaceability had significant effects on biological invasion changing the spatial pattern in both shape and magnitude, which can misplace and overvalue conservation priorities. We showed that the disregard of biological invasion on SCP can cause negative effects on SCP under climate change. We strongly recommend accounting for biological invasion in the evaluation of SCP.     

Scale effects in species distribution models: implications for conservation planning under climate change

Predictions of future species' ranges under climate change are needed for conservation planning, for which species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used. However, global climate model-based (GCM) output grids can bias the area identified as suitable when these are used as SDM predictor variables, because GCM outputs, typically at least 50x50 km, are biologically coarse. We tested the assumption that species ranges can be equally well portrayed in SDMs operating on base data of different grid sizes by comparing SDM performance statistics and area selected by four SDMs run at seven grid sizes, for nine species of contrasting range size. Area selected was disproportionately larger for SDMs run on larger grid sizes, indicating a cut-off point above which model results were less reliable. Up to 2.89 times more species range area was selected by SDMs operating on grids above 50x50 km, compared to SDMs operating at 1 km2. Spatial congruence between areas selected as range also diverged as grid size increased, particularly for species with ranges between 20000 and 90000 km2. These results indicate the need for caution when using such data to plan future protected areas, because an overly large predicted range could lead to inappropriate reserve location selection.     

Raising the bar for systematic conservation planning

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) represents a significant step toward cost-effective, transparent allocation of resources for biodiversity conservation. However, research demonstrates important consequences of uncertainties in SCP and of basing methods on simplified circumstances involving few real-world complexities. Current research often relies on single case studies with unknown forms and amounts of uncertainty as well as low statistical power for generalizing results. Consequently, conservation managers have little evidence for the true performance of conservation planning methods in their own complex, uncertain applications. To build effective and reliable methods in SCP, there is a need for more challenging and integrated testing of their robustness to uncertainty and complexity, and much greater emphasis on generalization to real-world situations.     

Vulnerability of mires under climate change: implications for nature conservation and climate change adaptation

Wetlands in general and mires in particular belong to the most important terrestrial carbon stocks globally. Mires (i.e. bogs, transition bogs and fens) are assumed to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they depend on specific, namely cool and humid, climatic conditions. In this paper, we use distribution data of the nine mire types to be found in Austria and habitat distribution models for four IPCC scenarios to evaluate climate change induced risks for mire ecosystems within the 21st century. We found that climatic factors substantially contribute to explain the current distribution of all nine Austrian mire ecosystem types. Summer temperature proved to be the most important predictor for the majority of mire ecosystems. Precipitation—mostly spring and summer precipitation sums—was influential for some mire ecosystem types which depend partly or entirely on ground water supply (e.g. fens). We found severe climate change induced risks for all mire ecosystems, with rain-fed bog ecosystems being most threatened. Differences between scenarios are moderate for the mid-21st century, but become more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century, with near total loss of climate space projected for some ecosystem types (bogs, quagmires) under severe climate change. Our results imply that even under minimum expected, i.e. inevitable climate change, climatic risks for mires in Austria will be considerable. Nevertheless, the pronounced differences in projected habitat loss between moderate and severe climate change scenarios indicate that limiting future warming will likely contribute to enhance long-term survival of mire ecosystems, and to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions from decomposing peat. Effectively stopping and reversing the deterioration of mire ecosystems caused by conventional threats can be regarded as a contribution to climate change mitigation. Because hydrologically intact mires are more resilient to climatic changes, this would also maintain the nature conservation value of mires, and help to reduce the severe climatic risks to which most Austrian mire ecosystems may be exposed in the 2nd half of the 21st century according to IPCC scenarios.     

Adapting legume crops to climate change using genomic approaches

Our agricultural system and hence food security is threatened by combination of events, such as increasing population, the impacts of climate change, and the need to a more sustainable development. Evolutionary adaptation may help some species to overcome environmental changes through new selection pressures driven by climate change. However, success of evolutionary adaptation is dependent on various factors, one of which is the extent of genetic variation available within species. Genomic approaches provide an exceptional opportunity to identify genetic variation that can be employed in crop improvement programs. In this review, we illustrate some of the routinely used genomics‐based methods as well as recent breakthroughs, which facilitate assessment of genetic variation and discovery of adaptive genes in legumes. Although additional information is needed, the current utility of selection tools indicate a robust ability to utilize existing variation among legumes to address the challenges of climate uncertainty.     

Systematic conservation planning in the face of climate change: bet-hedging on the Columbia Plateau

Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts.     

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost‐effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red‐listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.     

系统保护规划和不可代替性分析在区域规划中的应用

在区域规划中应该把保护和发展密切结合起来,才能为实施可持续发展战略奠定基础。遵循系统保护规划和不可代替性分析的观点,内蒙古克 什克腾旗应该建立10个不同类型的保护区,并与有关部门和社区实施共同管理,建设成为一个可持续发展的示范基地。     

海南岛生物多样性保护优先区评价与系统保护规划

选择海南岛140个濒危物种为指示物种,在物种栖息地评价的基础上,利用系统保护规划工具MARXAN模型进行迭代运算,提出了海南岛生物多样性保护优先区域,并对保护优先区进行评价.结果表明:海南岛保护优先区面积5383.7km2,占海南岛陆地面积的15.6%,集中分布于鹦哥岭、尖峰岭、五指山等林区和北部湿地;在保护优先区中,11个I级指示物种栖息地的保护比例均超过各自栖息地总面积的65%.通过对保护优先区与现有自然保护区的空缺分析,建议扩充尖峰岭保护区群、鹦哥岭-黎母山保护区群、五指山-吊罗山保护区群;新建抱龙林场-林鼻岭-福万岭保护体系;在海南岛北部建立以水源保护为主,同时兼顾珍稀物种保护的水源地保护带.     

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul‐de‐sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present‐to‐future velocities) and management of species populations (future‐to‐present velocities).     

Strategies for mammal conservation under climate change in the Amazon

Climate change is not only a major threat to biodiversity, it is also a big challenge to the development of conservation strategies. Scientists and practitioners need to select or avoid areas at greatest risk for species protection, i.e., acting in a proactive or a reactive manner. This proactive/reactive dichotomy takes a particular formulation under the likely changes in climate. Selecting for low-risk areas (usually referred to as climate refugia) is supposed to protect more species with a greater guarantee of their long-term persistence. As a consequence, populations at greatest risk are left unprotected and probably committed to extinction. On the other hand, managing species in high-risk areas is more expensive than setting aside areas of climate refugia and encompasses a set of uncertainties, which makes highly-threatened species more costly and difficult to save. Here, we combine ecological niche models and metrics of climate change to develop spatial conservation schemes for mammals in the Brazilian Amazon. These schemes efficiently identify networks of high-risk and refugia priority areas within species current and future distributions, while complementing the protection already achieved by the Amazon’s network of protected areas (PAs). We found that, on average, 25% of mammal distribution is already represented in the established network of PAs. Also, 26% of high-risk and 17% of refugia priority areas overlap with indigenous lands. In addition, species distributions were found mostly in high-risk, compared to in refugia priority areas. We highlight that the strategy to be employed does not necessarily should be binary and a mix of both strategies would guarantee the protection of a larger number of species.     

Integrating multidirectional connectivity requirements in systematic conservation planning for freshwater systems

Aim Recent efforts to apply the principles of systematic conservation planning to freshwater ecosystems have focused on the special connected nature of these systems as a way to ensure adequacy (long‐term maintenance of biodiversity). Connectivity is important in maintaining biodiversity and key ecological processes in freshwater environments and is of special relevance for conservation planning in these systems. However, freshwater conservation planning has focused on longitudinal connectivity requirements within riverine ecosystems, while other habitats, such as floodplain wetlands or lakes and connections among them, have been overlooked. Here, we address this gap by incorporating a new component of connectivity in addition to the traditional longitudinal measure. Location Northern Australia. Methods We integrate lateral connections between freshwater areas (e.g. lakes and wetlands) that are not directly connected by the river network and the longitudinal upstream–downstream connections. We demonstrate how this can be used to incorporate ecological requirements of some water‐dependent taxa that can move across drainage divides, such as waterbirds. Results When applied together, the different connectivity rules allow the identification of priority areas that contain whole lakes or wetlands, their closest neighbours whenever possible, and the upstream/downstream reaches of rivers that flow into or from them. This would facilitate longitudinal and lateral movements of biota while minimizing the influence of disturbances potentially received from upstream or downstream reaches. Main conclusions This new approach to defining and applying different connectivity rules can help improve the adequacy of freshwater‐protected areas by enhancing movements of biodiversity within priority areas. The integration of multiple connectivity needs can also serve as a bridge to integrate freshwater and terrestrial conservation planning.     

Comparing alternative systematic conservation planning strategies against a politically driven conservation plan

Decisions regarding the level of detail included in conservation planning and the importance given to feasibility considerations can greatly influence management in terms of total area required, achievement of conservation targets and costs. This work had two main objectives: (1) to compare priority sites proposed by the Chilean commission for the environment in a politically driven process to the results of alternative systematic conservation planning scenarios; and (2) to compare the efficacy of systematic conservation planning based on different types of conservation targets (forest types and bird species) and minimum area thresholds. To address these issues, we used vegetation cover as well as field data on forest birds in central Chile. Bird species distributions were modeled using a variety of climatic and environmental layers, allowing for the integration of environmental heterogeneity into the planning process. We then ran several conservation planning scenarios considering conservation targets based on vegetation types alone, birds alone, or a combination of vegetation and birds. Collectively these results show that conservation planning results differ significantly when considering birds or vegetation types, and that minimum area requirements for each conservation feature has a great influence on the final results. Moreover, important conservation sites are not represented in the current government plan, and these sites are related to the small representation of rare vegetation types. This study suggests that using appropriate minimum area requirements can greatly affect the results of a conservation planning exercise and therefore represents a key knowledge gap in the region.     

Incorporating climate change adaptation into national conservation assessments

The Convention on Biological Diversity requires that member nations establish protected area networks that are representative of the country's biodiversity. The identification of priority sites to achieve outstanding representation targets is typically accomplished through formal conservation assessments. However, representation in conservation assessments or gap analyses has largely been interpreted based on a static view of biodiversity. In a rapidly changing climate, the speed of changes in biodiversity distribution and abundance is causing us to rethink the viability of this approach. Here we describe three explicit strategies for climate change adaptation as part of national conservation assessments: conserving the geophysical stage, identifying and protecting climate refugia, and promoting cross‐environment connectivity. We demonstrate how these three approaches were integrated into a national terrestrial conservation assessment for Papua New Guinea, one of the most biodiverse countries on earth. Protected areas identified based on representing geophysical diversity were able to capture over 90% of the diversity in vegetation communities, suggesting they could help protect representative biodiversity regardless of changes in the distribution of species and communities. By including climate change refugia as part of the national conservation assessment, it was possible to substantially reduce the amount of environmental change expected to be experienced within protected areas, without increasing the overall cost of the protected area network. Explicitly considering environmental heterogeneity between adjacent areas resulted in protected area networks with over 40% more internal environmental connectivity. These three climate change adaptation strategies represent defensible ways to guide national conservation priority given the uncertainty that currently exists in our ability to predict climate changes and their impacts. Importantly, they are also consistent with data and expertise typically available during national conservation assessments, including in developing nations. This means that in the vast majority of countries, these strategies could be implemented immediately.