黄土高原油松和辽东栎林下植物β多样性差异及影响因素

β多样性是生态学研究的热点论题,相同的β多样性格局可能由不同的生态过程所决定.该文通过构建零假说模型和典范变异分解的方法,比较了黄土高原油松人工林(Form.Pinus tabulaeformis)和辽东栎天然林(Form.Quercus wutaishanica)林下植物群落β多样性,确定了环境过滤和扩散限制在β多样...     

Environmental variability and biogeography: the relationship between bathymetric distribution and geographical range size in marine algae and gastropods

Aims Gradients of environmental variability have been proposed to explain spatial variation in patterns of geographical range size. We explore this relationship in NE Pacific algae and NW Atlantic gastropods by using the characteristics of species’ bathymetric distributions as a proxy for tolerance of environmental variability. Location NE Pacific and NW Atlantic. Methods Data on species bathymetric and geographical distributions were compiled from the literature. Results For both algae and gastropods, species that inhabit highly seasonal, shallow depth zones have broader latitudinal ranges, and occupy more biogeographical provinces, than species that live in more temporally stable, deeper zones. Furthermore, species that tolerate spatial variability along the bathymetric axis, i.e. those that occur in multiple depth zones, have broader geographical ranges than species restricted to fewer depth zones. Main conclusions Within‐range environmental variability, through both space and time, is predictive of large geographical ranges for marine algae and gastropods. Analysis of species distributions across perpendicular gradients (e.g. depth and latitude) is a powerful approach to discerning the mechanisms that govern biogeographical patterns, and provides easily obtainable broad‐brush predictions regarding the biogeographical outcomes of global change.     

Predictable variation of range-sizes across an extreme environmental gradient in a lizard adaptive radiation: evolutionary and ecological inferences

Large-scale patterns of current species geographic range-size variation reflect historical dynamics of dispersal and provide insights into future consequences under changing environments. Evidence suggests that climate warming exerts major damage on high latitude and elevation organisms, where changes are more severe and available space to disperse tracking historical niches is more limited. Species with longer generations (slower adaptive responses), such as vertebrates, and with restricted distributions (lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding) in these environments are expected to be particularly threatened by warming crises. However, a well-known macroecological generalization (Rapoport's rule) predicts that species range-sizes increase with increasing latitude-elevation, thus counterbalancing the impact of climate change. Here, I investigate geographic range-size variation across an extreme environmental gradient and as a function of body size, in the prominent Liolaemus lizard adaptive radiation. Conventional and phylogenetic analyses revealed that latitudinal (but not elevational) ranges significantly decrease with increasing latitude-elevation, while body size was unrelated to range-size. Evolutionarily, these results are insightful as they suggest a link between spatial environmental gradients and range-size evolution. However, ecologically, these results suggest that Liolaemus might be increasingly threatened if, as predicted by theory, ranges retract and contract continuously under persisting climate warming, potentially increasing extinction risks at high latitudes and elevations.     

Explaining the global pattern of protected area coverage: relative importance of vertebrate biodiversity, human activities and agricultural suitability

Aim Twelve per cent of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is covered by protected areas, but neither these areas nor the biodiversity they contain are evenly distributed spatially. To guide future establishment of protected areas, it is important to understand the factors that have shaped the spatial arrangement of the current protected area system. We used an information‐theoretic approach to assess the ability of vertebrate biodiversity measures, resource consumption and agricultural potential to explain the global coverage pattern of protected areas. Location Global. Methods For each of 762 World Wildlife Fund terrestrial ecoregions of the world, we measured protected area coverage, resource consumption, terrestrial vertebrate species richness, number of endemic species, number of threatened species, net primary production, elevation and topographic heterogeneity. We combined these variables into 39 a priori models to describe protected area coverage at the global scale, and for six biogeographical realms. Using the Akaike information criterion and Akaike weights, we identified the relative importance and influence of each variable in describing protected area coverage. Results Globally, the number of endemic species was the best variable describing protected area coverage, followed by the number of threatened species. Species richness and resource consumption were of moderate importance and agricultural potential had weak support for describing protected area coverage at a global scale. Yet, the relative importance of these factors varied among biogeographical realms. Measures of vertebrate biodiversity (species richness, endemism and threatened species) were among the most important variables in all realms, except the Indo‐Malayan, but had a wide range of relative importance and influence. Resource consumption was inversely related to protected area coverage across all but one realm (the Palearctic), most strongly in the Nearctic realm. Agricultural potential, despite having little support in describing protected area coverage globally, was strongly and positively related to protection in the Palearctic and Neotropical realms, as well as in the Indo‐Malayan realm. The Afrotropical, Indo‐Malayan and Australasian realms showed no clear, strong relationships between protected area coverage and the independent variables. Main conclusions Globally, the existing protected area network is more strongly related to biodiversity measures than to patterns of resource consumption or agricultural potential. However, the relative importance of these factors varies widely among the world’s biogeographical realms. Understanding the biases of the current protected area system may help to correct for them as future protected areas are added to the global network.     

Partitioning the variation in African vertebrate distributions into environmental and spatial components – exploring the link between ecology and biogeography

There has been a proliferation of studies aimed at predicting the distributions of species from environmental variables despite evidence that spatial interpolation or spatially‐constrained mechanistic models have comparable explanatory power. Moreover, the processes behind environmental and spatial correlations – and their interactions – remain elusive. Here, we examined geographic patterns in the amount of variation explained by environmental correlation and exogenous or endogenous spatial autocorrelation for 4423 terrestrial vertebrate species in Africa using variation partitioning analysis. We also tested the effects of range size and taxonomic class on the relative importance of environmental and spatial correlations, and contrasted empirical patterns to two environmentally‐neutral models to identify potential underlying environmental and spatial mechanisms. Results showed that geographic range size was associated with environmental and spatial variation components in ways that where qualitatively indistinguishable from environmentally‐neutral species with constrained dispersal, suggesting that proportions of variation are due to range cohesiveness rather than other ecological processes. As a consequence, large‐scale patterns of biodiversity should be studied cautiously due to the difficulty of obtaining evidence of causal mechanistic links between species distributions and spatio‐environmental gradients. However, we also uncovered ecologically‐meaningful patterns in the residuals of the relationship between range size and the respective variation components, which differed among vertebrate classes. Moreover, these patterns coincided with contemporary biogeographical regions. This study, therefore, demonstrates that it is possible to extract meaningful environmental and spatial associations that potentially link ecological and biogeographical processes.     

Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range

Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms’ distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole‐species and genetic‐unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units.     

The relative roles of environment and history as controls of tree species composition and richness in Europe

Aim This study investigates the determinants of European‐scale patterns in tree species composition and richness, addressing the following questions: (1) What is the relative importance of environment and history? History refers to lasting effects of past large‐scale events and time‐dependent cumulative effects of ongoing processes, notably dispersal limited range dynamics. (2) Among the environmental determinants, what is the relative importance of climate, soils, and forest cover? (3) Do the answers to questions 1 and 2 differ between conifers and Fagales, the two major monophyletic groups of European trees? Location The study area comprises most of Europe (34° N–72° N and 11° W–32° E). Methods Atlas data on native distributions of 54 large tree species at 50 × 50 km resolution were linked with climatic, edaphic, and forest cover maps in a geographical information system. Unconstrained (principal components analysis using Hellinger distance transformation and detrended correspondence analysis) and constrained ordinations (redundancy analysis using Hellinger distance transformation and canonical correspondence analysis) and multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the determinants of species composition and species richness, respectively. History is expected to leave its mark as broad spatial patterns and was represented by the nine spatial terms of a cubic trend surface polynomial. Results The main floristic pattern identified by all ordinations was a latitude‐temperature gradient, while the lower axes corresponded mostly to spatial variables. Partitioning the floristic variation using constrained ordinations showed the mixed spatial‐environmental and pure spatial fractions to be much greater than the pure environmental fraction. Biplots, forward variable selection, and partial analyses all suggested climatic variables as more important floristic determinants than forest cover or soil variables. Tree species richness peaked in the mountainous regions of East‐Central and Southern Europe, except the Far West. Variation partitioning of species richness found the mixed spatial‐environmental and pure spatial fractions to be much greater than the pure environmental fraction for all species combined and Fagales, but not for conifers. The scaled regression coefficients indicated climate as a stronger determinant of richness than soils or forest cover. While the dominant patterns were similar for conifers and Fagales, conifers exhibited less predictable patterns overall, a smaller pure spatial variation fraction relative to pure environmental fraction, and a greater relative importance of climate; all differences being more pronounced for species richness than for species composition. Main conclusions The analyses suggest that history is at least as important as current environment in controlling species composition and richness of European trees, with the exception of conifer species richness. Strong support for interpreting the spatial patterns as outcomes of historical processes, notably dispersal limitation, came from the observation that many European tree species naturalize extensively outside their native ranges. Furthermore, it was confirmed that climate predominates among environmental determinants of distribution and diversity patterns at large spatial scales. Finally, the particular patterns exhibited by conifers probably reflect greater environmental specialization and greater human impact. These findings warn against expecting the European tree flora to be able track fast future climate changes on its own.     

Understanding global patterns in amphibian geographic range size: does Rapoport rule?

Aim Species geographic ranges are the ‘fundamental units’ of macroecology. Range size is a major correlate of extinction risk in many groups, and is also critical in studies of biotic responses to climate change. Despite this, there is a lack of studies exploring the role of environmental, historical and anthropogenic processes in determining large‐scale patterns in range size. We perform the first global analysis of putative drivers of range size variation in any group, choosing amphibians as our study taxon. Our aims are to disentangle the many hypothesized causes of range size variation and evaluate support for ‘Rapoport's rule’, the observation that range size correlates with latitude. Location Global. Methods We develop a global map of gridded median range size using the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) distribution maps. From this we perform spatial and non‐spatial regressions to explore relationships between range size and nine hypothesized variables in six biogeographic realms. We use information‐theoretic model selection to compare multiple competing variables, simultaneously evaluating the relative support for each one. Results Current climate – environmental water and energy, and temperature seasonality – is consistently highly ranked in spatial and non‐spatial analyses. Human impacts and other environmental measures (topographic and landscape complexity, effective area, climate extremes) show mixed support, and glacial history is consistently unimportant. Our findings add further evidence to the view that Rapoport's rule is a regional, not global, phenomenon. Main conclusions The primary importance of temperature seasonality may explain why Rapoport's rule is largely restricted to northern latitudes, as this is where seasonality is most pronounced. More generally, the dominance of contemporary climate in our analyses (even when accounting for space) has stark implications for the future status of amphibians. Changes in climate will almost certainly interact with the anthropogenic processes already threatening a third of amphibians globally, with the effects being most keenly felt by species with a restricted range.     

Plant biodiversity patterns along a climatic gradient and across protected areas in West Africa

Knowledge of spatial patterns of biological diversity is fundamental for ecological and biogeographical analyses and for priority setting in nature conservation, particularly in West Africa where the existing high biodiversity is increasingly threatened by human activities. The maximum entropy approach was used to model the geographic distribution of 3,393 vascular plant species at a spatial resolution of 0.0833°. Species richness decreases along temperature and precipitation gradients with high species numbers in the south and lower numbers towards the north of the transect. All centres of plant species diversity are confined to humid areas in concordance with the high positive correlation between species richness and rainfall which appears to be the most important delimiter for the distribution ranges of many species in the area. The effectiveness of the existing protected areas at regional and national levels is investigated based on the proportion of species covered. Considering the whole study area, 95% of all species are covered by protected areas according to their distribution ranges. However, the proportion of species covered is considerably lower for some countries such as Benin and Togo. Our results could provide guidance for essential land use management interventions to decision‐makers and conservationists in the region.     

Modelling the occurrence of threatened plant species in taiga landscapes: methodological and ecological perspectives

Aim Understanding the spatial patterns of species distribution and predicting the occurrence of high biological diversity and rare species are central themes in biogeography and environmental conservation. The aim of this study was to model and scrutinize the relative contributions of climate, topography, geology and land‐cover factors to the distributions of threatened vascular plant species in taiga landscapes in northern Finland. Location North‐east Finland, northern Europe. Methods The study was performed using a data set of 28 plant species and environmental variables at a 25‐ha resolution. Four different stepwise selection algorithms [Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), adaptive backfitting, cross selection] with generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted to identify the main environmental correlates for species occurrences. The accuracies of the distribution models were evaluated using fourfold cross‐validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from receiver operating characteristic plots. The GAMs were tentatively extrapolated to the whole study area and species occurrence probability maps were produced using GIS techniques. The effect of spatial autocorrelation on the modelling results was also tested by including autocovariate terms in the GAMs. Results According to the AUC values, the model performance varied from fair to excellent. The AIC algorithm provided the highest mean performance (mean AUC = 0.889), whereas the lowest mean AUC (0.851) was obtained from BIC. Most of the variation in the distribution of threatened plant species was related to growing degree days, temperature of the coldest month, water balance, cover of mire and mean elevation. In general, climate was the most powerful explanatory variable group, followed by land cover, topography and geology. Inclusion of the autocovariate only slightly improved the performance of the models and had a minor effect on the importance of the environmental variables. Main conclusions The results confirm that the landscape‐scale distribution patterns of plant species can be modelled well on the basis of environmental parameters. A spatial grid system with several environmental variables derived from remote sensing and GIS data was found to produce useful data sets, which can be employed when predicting species distribution patterns over extensive areas. Landscape‐scale maps showing the predicted occurrences of individual or multiple threatened plant species may provide a useful basis for focusing field surveys and allocating conservation efforts.     

How bird clades diversify in response to climatic and geographic factors

While the environmental correlates of global patterns in standing species richness are well understood, it is poorly known which environmental factors promote diversification (speciation minus extinction) in clades. We tested several hypotheses for how geographic and climatic variables should affect diversification using a large dataset of bird sister genera endemic to the New World. We found support for the area, evolutionary speed, environmental predictability and climatic stability hypotheses, but productivity and topographic complexity were rejected as explanations. Genera that had accumulated more species tend to occupy wider niche space, manifested both as occurrence over wider areas and in more habitats. Genera with geographic ranges that have remained more stable in response to glacial‐interglacial changes in climate were also more species rich. Since many relevant explanatory variables vary latitudinally, it is crucial to control for latitude when testing alternative mechanistic explanations for geographic variation in diversification among clades.     

TreeGOER: A database with globally observed environmental ranges for 48,129 tree species

The TreeGOER (Tree Globally Observed Environmental Ranges) database provides information for most known tree species of their environmental ranges for 38 bioclimatic, eight soil and three topographic variables. It is based on species distribution modelling analyses of more than 44 million occurrences. The database can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7922927 . Statistics that include 5% and 95% quantiles were estimated for a cleaned and taxonomically standardized occurrence data set with different methods of outlier detection, with estimates for roughly 45% of species being based on 20 or more observation records. Where sufficient representative observations are available, the ranges provide useful preliminary estimates of suitable conditions particularly for lesser-known species under climate change. Inferred core bioclimatic ranges of species along global temperature and moisture index gradients and across continents follow the known global distribution of tree diversity such as its highest levels in moist tropical forests and the ‘odd man out’ pattern of lower levels in Africa. To demonstrate how global analyses for large numbers of tree species can easily be done in R with TreeGOER , here I present two case studies. The first case study investigated latitudinal trends of tree vulnerability and compared these with previous results obtained for urban trees. The second case study focused on tropical areas, compared trends in different longitudinal zones and investigated patterns for the moisture index. TreeGOER is expected to benefit researchers conducting biogeographical and climate change research for a wide range of tree species at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.     

Patterns and causes of species richness: a general simulation model for macroecology

Understanding the causes of spatial variation in species richness is a major research focus of biogeography and macroecology. Gridded environmental data and species richness maps have been used in increasingly sophisticated curve‐fitting analyses, but these methods have not brought us much closer to a mechanistic understanding of the patterns. During the past two decades, macroecologists have successfully addressed technical problems posed by spatial autocorrelation, intercorrelation of predictor variables and non‐linearity. However, curve‐fitting approaches are problematic because most theoretical models in macroecology do not make quantitative predictions, and they do not incorporate interactions among multiple forces. As an alternative, we propose a mechanistic modelling approach. We describe computer simulation models of the stochastic origin, spread, and extinction of species’ geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous, gridded domain and describe progress to date regarding their implementation. The output from such a general simulation model (GSM) would, at a minimum, consist of the simulated distribution of species ranges on a map, yielding the predicted number of species in each grid cell of the domain. In contrast to curve‐fitting analysis, simulation modelling explicitly incorporates the processes believed to be affecting the geographical ranges of species and generates a number of quantitative predictions that can be compared to empirical patterns. We describe three of the ‘control knobs’ for a GSM that specify simple rules for dispersal, evolutionary origins and environmental gradients. Binary combinations of different knob settings correspond to eight distinct simulation models, five of which are already represented in the literature of macroecology. The output from such a GSM will include the predicted species richness per grid cell, the range size frequency distribution, the simulated phylogeny and simulated geographical ranges of the component species, all of which can be compared to empirical patterns. Challenges to the development of the GSM include the measurement of goodness of fit (GOF) between observed data and model predictions, as well as the estimation, optimization and interpretation of the model parameters. The simulation approach offers new insights into the origin and maintenance of species richness patterns, and may provide a common framework for investigating the effects of contemporary climate, evolutionary history and geometric constraints on global biodiversity gradients. With further development, the GSM has the potential to provide a conceptual bridge between macroecology and historical biogeography.     

Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity

Recent attempts at projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity have used the IUCN Red List Criteria to obtain estimates of extinction rates based on projected range shifts. In these studies, the Criteria are often misapplied, potentially introducing substantial bias and uncertainty. These misapplications include arbitrary changes to temporal and spatial scales; confusion of the spatial variables; and assume a linear relationship between abundance and range area. Using the IUCN Red List Criteria to identify which species are threatened by climate change presents special problems and uncertainties, especially for shorter‐lived species. Responses of most species to future climate change are not understood well enough to estimate extinction risks based solely on climate change scenarios and projections of shifts and/or reductions in range areas. One way to further such understanding would be to analyze the interactions among habitat shifts, landscape structure and demography for a number of species, using a combination of models. Evaluating the patterns in the results might allow the development of guidelines for assigning species to threat categories, based on a combination of life history parameters, characteristics of the landscapes in which they live, and projected range changes.     

Evolution of bird migration in a biogeographical context

We infer from the literature that migratory habits of birds evolved in various phylogenetic lineages and biogeographical contexts, either after gradual range expansion into seasonal habitats, or due to environmental changes within established breeding ranges. Shifts of breeding ranges are the results of interactions between colonization due to dispersal and extinction due to deteriorating conditions. Range expansions provide a platform for the evolution of migration from the newly colonized areas towards seasonally favourable non‐breeding areas. A comparison of palaeoclimatic changes with concurrent evolution and distribution of passerine birds suggests that at least some of the basic genera of the Passerida radiated on the northern continents when quasi‐tropical or subtropical climates prevailed. The Passerida may be a special case, but they suggest that ‘tropical origin’ does not necessarily imply a ‘southern origin’ of migratory species. Climate deterioration required adaptations either towards on‐site survival under harsh conditions or towards escape movements allowing improved non‐breeding survival in less seasonal climates or with reversed seasonality. Taxon‐specific life‐history traits and environmental conditions favoured either sedentary or migratory lines of adaptation. Repeated climate variation induced range shifts and concurrent increases or decreases in the expression of migratory behaviour. Two examples of waders suggest that the principle of range shift, followed by the development of migratory habits, is also applicable for other taxonomic groups.     

Habitat loss and the limits to endangered species recovery

Canada is one of the last places on earth with extensive wilderness areas, yet the number of Canadian species threatened with extinction continues to rise every year. Using satellite‐derived land use data, we find that habitat loss explains most of the variation in numbers of endangered species across Canada. Habitat loss within species ranges is, therefore, likely to be the leading factor inhibiting their recovery. We measured habitat loss individually within the known ranges of 243 terrestrial species at risk of extinction across Canada. Recovery potential, as measured by extent of natural habitat within each species’ range, is bimodally distributed, but less than 50% of the range of the majority of Canada's species at risk is natural habitat and there is no detectable habitat remaining for 16 of the 243 species at risk. There were no differences in the recovery potential of species categorized either by threat level (special concern, threatened, or endangered) or taxon. Despite having extensive wilderness areas, Canada has similar rates of endangerment to other countries in the Americas, underlining the effect of severe habitat loss to intensive agriculture that has occurred in Canada's most biologically diverse regions. Improvements to protected areas networks and especially cooperative conservation activities with private landowners will do the most to improve the recovery prospects of species at risk in Canada.     

Disease swamps molecular signatures of genetic-environmental associations to abiotic factors in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations

Landscape genomics studies focus on identifying candidate genes under selection via spatial variation in abiotic environmental variables, but rarely by biotic factors (i.e., disease). The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is found only on the environmentally heterogeneous island of Tasmania and is threatened with extinction by a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumor disease (DFTD). Devils persist in regions of long-term infection despite epidemiological model predictions of species’ extinction, suggesting possible adaptation to DFTD. Here, we test the extent to which spatial variation and genetic diversity are associated with the abiotic environment (i.e., climatic variables, elevation, vegetation cover) and/or DFTD. We employ genetic-environment association analyses using 6886 SNPs from 3287 individuals sampled pre- and post-disease arrival across the devil's geographic range. Pre-disease, we find significant correlations of allele frequencies with environmental variables, including 365 unique loci linked to 71 genes, suggesting local adaptation to abiotic environment. The majority of candidate loci detected pre-DFTD are not detected post-DFTD arrival. Several post-DFTD candidate loci are associated with disease prevalence and were in linkage disequilibrium with genes involved in tumor suppression and immune response. Loss of apparent signal of abiotic local adaptation post-disease suggests swamping by strong selection resulting from the rapid onset of DFTD.     

Multivariate analysis of a fine-scale breeding bird atlas using a geographical information system and partial canonical correspondence analysis: environmental and spatial effects

Aim To assess the relative roles of environment and space in driving bird species distribution and to identify relevant drivers of bird assemblage composition, in the case of a fine‐scale bird atlas data set. Location The study was carried out in southern Belgium using grid cells of 1 × 1 km, based on the distribution maps of the Oiseaux nicheurs de Famenne: Atlas de Lesse et Lomme which contains abundance for 103 bird species. Methods Species found in < 10% or > 90% of the atlas cells were omitted from the bird data set for the analysis. Each cell was characterized by 59 landscape metrics, quantifying its composition and spatial patterns, using a Geographical Information System. Partial canonical correspondence analysis was used to partition the variance of bird species matrix into independent components: (a) ‘pure’ environmental variation, (b) spatially‐structured environmental variation, (c) ‘pure’ spatial variation and (d) unexplained, non‐spatial variation. Results The variance partitioning method shows that the selected landscape metrics explain 27.5% of the variation, whilst ‘pure’ spatial and spatially‐structured environmental variables explain only a weak percentage of the variation in the bird species matrix (2.5% and 4%, respectively). Avian community composition is primarily related to the degree of urbanization and the amount and composition of forested and open areas. These variables explain more than half of the variation for three species and over one‐third of the variation for 12 species. Main conclusions The results seem to indicate that the majority of explained variation in species assemblages is attributable to local environmental factors. At such a fine spatial resolution, however, the method does not seem to be appropriated for detecting and extracting the spatial variation of assemblages. Consequently, the large amount of unexplained variation is probably because of missing spatial structures and ‘noise’ in species abundance data. Furthermore, it is possible that other relevant environmental factors, that were not taken into account in this study and which may operate at different spatial scales, can drive bird assemblage structure. As a large proportion of ecological variation can be shared by environment and space, the applied partitioning method was found to be useful when analysing multispecific atlas data, but it needs improvement to factor out all‐scale spatial components of this variation (the source of ‘false correlation’) and to bring out the ‘pure’ environmental variation for ecological interpretation.     

Ants on a mountain: spatial, environmental and habitat associations along an altitudinal transect in a centre of endemism

Mountains are biodiversity hotspots and provide spatially compressed versions of regional and continental variation. They might be the most cost effective way to measure the environmental associations of regional biotic communities and their response to global climate change. We investigated spatial variation in epigeal ant diversity along a north–south elevational transect over the Soutpansberg Mountain in South Africa, to see to what extent these patterns can be related to spatial (regional) and environmental (local) variables and how restricted taxa are to altitudinal zones and vegetation types. A total of 40,294 ants, comprising 78 species were caught. Ant richness peaked at the lowest elevation of the southern aspect but had a hump-shaped pattern along the northern slope. Species richness, abundance and assemblage structure were associated with temperature and the proportion of bare ground. Local environment and spatially structured environmental variables comprised more than two-thirds of the variation explained in species richness, abundance and assemblage structure, while space alone (regional processes) was responsible for <10%. Species on the northern aspect were more specific to particular vegetation types, whereas the southern aspect’s species were more generalist. Lower elevation species’ distributions were more restricted. The significance of temperature as an explanatory variable of ant diversity across the mountain could provide a predictive surrogate for future changes. The effect of CO₂-induced bush encroachment on the southern aspect could have indirect impacts complicating prediction, but ant species on the northern aspect should move uphill at a rate proportional to their thermal tolerance and the regional increases in temperature. Two species are identified that might be at risk of local extinction.