Comprehensibility, reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the Thai version of the Health Assessment Questionnaire in Thai patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction  

The Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-DI) is a commonly used instrument to assess functional status of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Translations and adaptations of the HAQ-DI have been carried out for use with RA patients in several countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Thai version of the HAQ-DI (Thai HAQ) in Thai patients with RA.     

Medication persistence over 2 years of follow-up in a cohort of early rheumatoid arthritis patients: associated factors and relationship with disease activity and with disability

Introduction  

Aggressive treatment with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) plays a major role in improving early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patient outcomes. Persistence and adherence with medication occurs variably (20% to 70%). The objectives of the study were to determine medication persistence (MP) in early RA patients over 13 consecutive visits each 2 months apart, to investigate the relationship between MP and disease activity, disability and structural damage, and to identify baseline prognosticators.     

Patient initiated outpatient follow up in rheumatoid arthritis: six year randomised controlled trial

Objectives To determine whether direct access to hospital review initiated by patients with rheumatoid arthritis would result in improved clinical and psychological outcome, reduced overall use of healthcare resources, and greater satisfaction with care than seen in patients receiving regular review initiated by a rheumatologist.Design Two year randomised controlled trial extended to six years.Setting Rheumatology outpatient department in teaching hospital.Participants 209 consecutive patients with rheumatoid arthritis for over two years; 68 (65%) in the direct access group and 52 (50%) in the control group completed the study (P = 0.04).Main outcome measures Clinical outcome: pain, disease activity, early morning stiffness, inflammatory indices, disability, grip strength, range of movement in joints, and bone erosion. Psychological status: anxiety, depression, helplessness, self efficacy, satisfaction, and confidence in the system. Number of visits to hospital physician and general practitioner for arthritis.Results Participants were well matched at baseline. After six years there was only one significant difference between the two groups for the 14 clinical outcomes measured (deterioration in range of movement in elbow was less in direct access patients). There were no significant differences between groups for median change in psychological status. Satisfaction and confidence in the system were significantly higher in the direct access group at two, four, and six years: confidence 9.8 v 8.4, 9.4 v 8.0, 8.7 v 6.9; satisfaction 9.3 v 8.3, 9.3 v 7.7, 8.9 v 7.1 (all P < 0.02). Patients in the direct access group had 38% fewer hospital appointments (median 8 v 13, P < 0.0001).Conclusions Over six years, patients with rheumatoid arthritis who initiated their reviews through direct access were clinically and psychologically at least as well as patients having traditional reviews initiated by a physician. They requested fewer appointments, found direct access more acceptable, and had more than a third fewer medical appointments. This radical responsive management could be tested in other chronic diseases.     

Rituximab in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in routine practice (GERINIS): six-year results from a prospective,multicentre, non-interventional study in 2,484 patients

Introduction

The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of rituximab (RTX) in a large cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis in routine care, and to monitor changes in daily practice since the introduction of RTX therapy.

Methods

This was a multicentre, prospective, non-interventional study conducted under routine practice conditions in Germany. Efficacy was evaluated using Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) and Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI). Safety was assessed by recording adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Physician and patient global efficacy and tolerability assessments were also evaluated.

Results

Overall, 2,484 patients (76.7% female, mean age 56.4 years, mean disease duration 11.7 years) received RTX treatment (22.7% monotherapy). The total observation period was approximately six-years (median follow-up 14.7 months). RTX treatment led to improvements in DAS28 and HAQ-DI that were sustained over multiple courses. DAS28 improvements positively correlated with higher rheumatoid factor levels up to 50 IU/ml. Response and tolerability were rated good/very good by the majority of physicians and patients. Mean treatment intervals were 10.5 and 6.8 months for the first and last 400 enrolled patients, respectively. Infections were the most frequently reported ADRs (9.1%; 11.39/100 patient-years); approximately 1% of patients per course discontinued therapy due to ADRs.

Conclusions

Prolonged RTX treatment in routine care is associated with good efficacy and tolerability, as measured by conventional parameters and by physicians’ and patients’ global assessments. Rheumatoid factor status served as a distinct and quantitative biomarker of RTX responsiveness. With growing experience, physicians repeated treatments earlier in patients with less severe disease activity.     

Aspects of early arthritis. What determines the evolution of early undifferentiated arthritis and rheumatoid arthritis? An update from the Norfolk Arthritis Register

Over 3500 patients with recent onset inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) have been recruited by the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) since 1990. Longitudinal data from this cohort have been used to examine the prevalence and predictors of remission, functional disability, radiological outcome, cardiovascular mortality and co-morbidity and the development of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Rheumatoid factor titre, high baseline C-reactive protein and high baseline HAQ score are all predictors of a poor outcome. There is a strong association between possession of the shared epitope and the development of erosions. Patients who satisfy the American College of Rheumatology criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have a worse prognosis than those who do not. However, it appears that these patients are a poorly defined subset of all those with IP rather than having an entirely separate disease entity. New statistical techniques offer exciting possibilities for using longitudinal datasets such as NOAR to explore the long-term effects of treatment in IP and RA.     

Silica exposure and rheumatoid arthritis: a follow up study of granite workers 1940-81.

The incidence and prevalence of subjects awarded disability pensions and the prevalence of subjects receiving free medicines because of rheumatoid arthritis were studied in a Finnish cohort of 1026 granite workers hired between 1940 and 1971 and followed up until 31 December 1981. The incidence of awards of disability pensions because of rheumatoid arthritis during 1969-81, the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis on 31 December 1981, and the prevalence of subjects receiving free medicines for rheumatoid arthritis at the end of 1981 were significantly higher among the granite workers than in the general male population of the same age. Retrospective analysis of the records of all patients with rheumatoid arthritis in the cohort showed a predominance of a severe, serologically positive and erosive form of rheumatoid arthritis, usually with an age at onset of 50 or over. The possible aetiological or pathophysiological role of granite dust in rheumatoid arthritis may be based on the effects of quartz on the immune system.     

Lymphocytes from rheumatoid arthritis patients have elevated levels of intracellular peroxiredoxin 2, and a greater frequency of cells with exofacial peroxiredoxin 2, compared with healthy human lymphocytes

Peroxiredoxin 2 has immune regulatory functions, but its expression in human peripheral blood lymphocytes and levels in extracellular fluid in healthy subjects and rheumatoid arthritis patients are poorly described. In the present study, the median intracellular peroxiredoxin 2 protein content of lymphocytes from rheumatoid arthritis patients was more than two-fold higher compared with healthy subjects' lymphocytes. Intracellular peroxiredoxin 3 levels were similar in healthy and rheumatoid arthritis lymphocytes. Flow cytometry detected peroxiredoxin 2 on the surface of ca. 8% of T cells and ca. 56% of B cells (median % values) of all subjects analyzed. Exofacial thioredoxin-1 was also observed. In the total lymphocyte population from rheumatoid arthritis patients, few cells (median, 6%) displayed surface peroxiredoxin 2. In contrast, a significantly increased proportion of interleukin-17(+ve) lymphocytes were exofacially peroxiredoxin 2(+ve) (median, 39%). Prdx2 was also detected in human extracellular fluids. We suggest that crucial inflammatory cell subsets, i.e. interleukin-17(+ve) T cells, exhibit increased exofacial redox-regulating enzymes and that peroxiredoxin 2 may be involved in the persistence of pro-inflammatory cells in chronic inflammation.     

Autoantibody profile in rheumatoid arthritis during long-term infliximab treatment

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of long-term infliximab treatment on various autoantibodies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Serum samples from 30 consecutive patients, who were prospectively followed during infliximab and methotrexate therapy for refractory rheumatoid arthritis, were tested at baseline and after 30, 54 and 78 weeks. At these points, median values of the Disease Activity Score were 6.38 (interquartile range 5.30–6.75), 3.69 (2.67–4.62), 2.9 (2.39–4.65) and 3.71 (2.62–5.06), respectively. Various autoantibodies were assessed by standard indirect immunofluorescence and/or ELISA. Initially, 50% of patients were positive for antinuclear antibodies, and this figure increased to 80% after 78 weeks (P = 0.029). A less marked, similar increase was found for IgG and IgM anticardiolipin antibody titre, whereas the frequency of anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies (by ELISA) exhibited a transient rise (up to 16.7%) at 54 weeks and dropped to 0% at 78 weeks. Antibodies to proteinase-3 and myeloperoxidase were not detected. The proportion of patients who were positive for rheumatoid factor (RF) was similar at baseline and at 78 weeks (87% and 80%, respectively). However, the median RF titre exhibited a progressive reduction from 128 IU/ml (interquartile range 47–290 IU/ml) to 53 IU/ml (18–106 IU/ml). Anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibodies were found in 83% of patients before therapy; anti-CCP antibody titre significantly decreased at 30 weeks but returned to baseline thereafter. In conclusion, the presence of anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies is a transient phenomenon, despite a stable increase in antinuclear and anticardiolipin antibodies. Also, the evolution of RF titres and that of anti-CCP antibody titres differed during long-term infliximab therapy.     

The determination and measurement of functional disability in rheumatoid arthritis

Although functional outcome is frequently discussed and written about, it is often not clear what functional outcome is and how it can be measured. This paper introduces the concept of latent and observed measures of functional disability, and distinguishes between disability as a process measure and disability as an outcome measure. Using the Health Assessment Questionnaire as the main functional outcome measure in rheumatoid arthritis, we propose and discuss several methods for determining disability, and describe the implications of altering the disability course.     

In vitro glucocorticoid sensitivity is associated with clinical glucocorticoid therapy outcome in rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction

Genetic and disease-related factors give rise to a wide spectrum of glucocorticoid (GC) sensitivity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In clinical practice, GC treatment is not adapted to these differences in GC sensitivity. In vitro assessment of GC sensitivity before the start of therapy could allow more individualized GC therapy. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between in vitro and in vivo GC sensitivity in RA.

Methods

Thirty-eight early and 37 established RA patients were prospectively studied. In vitro GC sensitivity was assessed with dexamethasone-induced effects on interleukin-2 (IL-2) and glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper (GILZ) messenger RNA expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). A whole-cell dexamethasone-binding assay was used to measure number and affinity (1/K_D) of glucocorticoid receptors (GRs).In vivo GC sensitivity was determined by measuring the disease activity score (DAS) and health assessment questionnaire disability index (HAQ-DI) score before and after 2 weeks of standardized GC treatment.

Results

GR number was positively correlated with improvement in DAS. IL-2-EC₅₀ and GILZ-EC₅₀ values both had weak near-significant correlations with clinical improvement in DAS in intramuscularly treated patients only. HAQ responders had lower GILZ-EC₅₀ values and higher GR number and K_D.

Conclusions

Baseline cellular in vitro glucocorticoid sensitivity is modestly associated with in vivo improvement in DAS and HAQ-DI score after GC bridging therapy in RA. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether in vitro GC sensitivity may support the development of tailor-made GC therapy in RA.     

Discriminant validity,responsiveness and reliability of the arthritis-specific Work Productivity Survey assessing workplace and household productivity in patients with psoriatic arthritis

Introduction

The novel arthritis-specific Work Productivity Survey (WPS) was developed to estimate patient productivity limitations associated with arthritis within and outside the home, which is an unmet need in psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The WPS has been validated in rheumatoid arthritis. This report assesses the discriminant validity, responsiveness and reliability of the WPS in adult-onset PsA.

Methods

Psychometric properties were assessed using data from the RAPID-PsA trial ({"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01087788","term_id":"NCT01087788"}}NCT01087788) investigating certolizumab pegol (CZP) efficacy and safety in PsA. WPS was completed at baseline and every 4 weeks until Week 24. Validity was evaluated at baseline via known-groups defined using first and third quartiles of patients’ Disease Activity Score 28 based on C-reactive protein (DAS28(CRP)), Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI), Short Form-36 (SF-36) items and PsA Quality of Life (PsAQoL) scores. Responsiveness and reliability were assessed by comparing WPS mean changes at Week 12 in American College of Rheumatology 20% improvement criteria (ACR20) or HAQ-DI Minimal Clinically Important Difference (MCID) 0.3 responders versus non-responders, as well as using standardized response means (SRM). All comparisons were conducted on the observed cases in the Randomized Set, regardless of the randomization group, using a non-parametric bootstrap-t method.

Results

Compared with patients with a better health state, patients with a worse health state had on average 2 to 6 times more household work days lost, more days with reduced household productivity, more days missed of family/social/leisure activities, more days with outside help hired and a significantly higher interference of arthritis per month. Among employed patients, those with a worse health state had 2 to 4 times more workplace days lost, more days with patient workplace productivity reduced, and a significantly higher interference of arthritis on patient workplace productivity versus patients with a better health state. WPS was also responsive to clinical changes, with responders having significantly larger improvements at Week 12 in WPS scores versus non-responders. The effect sizes for changes in productivity in ACR20 or HAQ-DI MCID responders were moderate (0.5 < SRM < 0.8) or small.

Conclusions

These analyses demonstrate the validity, responsiveness and reliability of the WPS, as an instrument for the measurement of patient productivity within and outside the home in an adult-onset PsA population.     

Serum Levels of Vasoactive Intestinal Peptide as a Prognostic Marker in Early Arthritis

Objective

Suitable biomarkers are essential for the design of therapeutic strategies in personalized medicine. Vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) has demonstrated immunomodulatory properties in autoimmune murine and ex vivo human models. Our aim was to study serum levels of VIP during the follow-up of an early arthritis (EA) cohort and to analyze its value as a biomarker predicting severity and therapeutic requirements.

Methods

Data from 91 patients on an EA register were analyzed (76% rheumatoid arthritis (RA), 24% undifferentiated arthritis, 73% women, and median age 54 years; median disease duration at entry, 5.4 months). We collected per protocol sociodemographic, clinical, and therapeutic data. VIP levels were determined by enzyme immunoassay in sera harvested from the 91 patients (353 visits; 3.9 visit/patient) and from 100 healthy controls. VIP values below the 25^th percentile of those assessed in healthy population were considered low. To determine the effect of independent variables on VIP levels, we performed a longitudinal multivariate analysis nested by patient and visit. A multivariate ordered logistic regression was modeled to determine the effect of low VIP serum levels on disease activity at the end of follow-up.

Results

VIP concentrations varied considerably across EA patients. Those fulfilling the criteria for RA had the lowest values in the whole sample, although no significant differences were observed compared with healthy donors. Disease activity, which was assessed using DAS28, inversely correlated with VIP levels. After a two-year follow-up, those patients with low baseline levels of VIP displayed higher disease activity and received more intensive treatment.

Conclusion

Patients who are unable to up-regulate VIP seem to have a worse clinical course despite receiving more intense treatment. Therefore, measurement of VIP levels may be suitable as a prognostic biomarker.     

Evaluation of the rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci HLA-DRB1, PTPN22, OLIG3/TNFAIP3, STAT4 and TRAF1/C5 in an inception cohort

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of adalimumab in enthesitis and peripheral arthritis in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS).

Methods

Adults with active AS (Bath ankylosing spondylitis disease activity index [BASDAI] ≥ 4) received adalimumab 40 mg every other week with standard antirheumatic therapies in a 12-week, open-label study. Effectiveness in enthesitis was assessed using the Maastricht ankylosing spondylitis enthesitis score (MASES, 0-13) and by examining the plantar fascia in patients with enthesitis (≥ 1 inflamed enthesis) at baseline; effectiveness in peripheral arthritis was evaluated using tender and swollen joint counts (TJC, 0-46; SJC, 0-44) in patients with peripheral arthritis (≥ 1 swollen joint) at baseline. Overall effectiveness measures included Assessment of SpondyloArthritis International Society 20% response (ASAS20).

Results

Of 1,250 patients enrolled, 686 had enthesitis and 281 had peripheral arthritis. In 667 patients with MASES ≥ 1 at baseline, the median MASES was reduced from 5 at baseline to 1 at week 12. At week 12, inflammation of the plantar fascia ceased in 122 of 173 patients with inflammation at baseline. The median TJC in 281 patients with SJC ≥ 1 at baseline was reduced from 5 at baseline to 1 at week 12; the median SJC improved from 2 to 0. ASAS20 responses were achieved by 70.5% of 457 patients with no enthesitis and no arthritis; 71.0% of 512 patients with only enthesitis; 68.0% of 107 patients with only arthritis; and 66.7% of 174 patients with both.

Conclusions

Treatment with adalimumab improved enthesitis and peripheral arthritis in patients with active AS.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00478660.     

Hand bone loss as an outcome measure in established rheumatoid arthritis: 2-year observational study comparing cortical and total bone loss

The aim of this 2-year longitudinal observational study was to explore hand bone loss as a disease outcome measure in established rheumatoid arthritis (RA).     

Sarilumab plus methotrexate improves patient-reported outcomes in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis and inadequate responses to methotrexate: results of a phase III trial

BackgroundSarilumab is a human monoclonal antibody directed against the alpha subunit of the interleukin-6 receptor complex. In the MOBILITY phase III randomized controlled trial (RCT), sarilumab + methotrexate (MTX) treatment resulted in clinical improvements at 24 weeks that were maintained at 52 weeks in adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), who have inadequate response to MTX (MTX-IR). These analyses indicate the effects of sarilumab + MTX versus placebo on patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in this RCT.MethodsPatients (n = 1197) were randomized to receive placebo, sarilumab 150 or 200 mg subcutaneously + MTX every 2 weeks for 52 weeks; after 16 weeks, patients without ≥20 % improvement from baseline in swollen or tender joint counts on two consecutive assessments were offered open-label treatment. PROs included patient global assessment of disease activity (PtGA), pain, health assessment questionnaire disability index (HAQ-DI), Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36), and functional assessment of chronic illness therapy-fatigue (FACIT-F). Changes from baseline at weeks 24 and 52 were analyzed using a mixed model for repeated measures. Post hoc analyses included percentages of patients reporting improvements equal to or greater than minimal clinically important differences (MCID) and normative values in the FACIT-F and SF-36. Pearson correlation between observed PRO scores and clinical measures of disease activity was tested at week 24.ResultsBoth doses of sarilumab + MTX vs placebo + MTX resulted in improvement from baseline by week 24 in PtGA, pain, HAQ-DI, SF-36 and FACIT-F scores (p < 0.0001) that was clinically meaningful, and persisted until week 52. In post hoc analyses, the percentages of patients with improvement equal to or greater than the MCID across all PROs were greater with sarilumab than placebo (p < 0.05), with differences ranging from 11.6 to 26.2 %, as were those reporting equal to or greater than normative scores.ConclusionsIn this RCT in patients with MTX-IR RA, sarilumab + MTX resulted in sustained improvement in PROs that were clinically meaningful, greater than placebo + MTX, and complement the previously reported clinical efficacy and safety of sarilumab.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov. NCT01061736. February 2, 2010     

Smoking-gender interaction and risk for rheumatoid arthritis

The present case-control study was conducted to investigate the relationship between smoking and rheumatoid arthritis, and to investigate formally the interaction between sex, smoking, and risk for developing rheumatoid arthritis. The study was performed in the Central District of Finland. Cases were patients with rheumatoid arthritis and the control group was a random sample of the general population. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the effect of smoking on risk for rheumatoid arthritis, after adjusting for the effects of age, education, body mass index, and indices of general health and pain. Overall, 1095 patients with rheumatoid arthritis and 1530 control individuals were included. Patients were older, less well educated, more disabled, and had poorer levels of general health as compared with control individuals (all P < 0.01). Preliminary analyses revealed the presence of substantial statistical interaction between smoking and sex (P < 0.001). In separate multivariable analyses, past history of smoking was associated with increased risk for rheumatoid arthritis overall in men (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.2-3.2) but not in women. Among men, this effect was seen only for rheumatoid factor-positive rheumatoid arthritis. There were significant interactions between smoking and age among women but not among men. We conclude that sex is a biologic effect modifier in the association between smoking and rheumatoid arthritis. The role of menopause in the etiology of rheumatoid arthritis merits further research.     

Baseline serum MMP-3 levels in patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis are still independently predictive of radiographic progression in a longitudinal observational cohort at 8 years follow up

Introduction  

At present, there is no reliable tool for predicting disease outcome in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We previously demonstrated an association between specific baseline biomarkers/clinical measures including matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) and 2-year radiographic progression in patients with RA. This study further evaluates the predictive capability of these baseline variables with outcome extended over 8-years.     

Smoking–gender interaction and risk for rheumatoid arthritis

The present case–control study was conducted to investigate the relationship between smoking and rheumatoid arthritis, and to investigate formally the interaction between sex, smoking, and risk for developing rheumatoid arthritis. The study was performed in the Central District of Finland. Cases were patients with rheumatoid arthritis and the control group was a random sample of the general population. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the effect of smoking on risk for rheumatoid arthritis, after adjusting for the effects of age, education, body mass index, and indices of general health and pain. Overall, 1095 patients with rheumatoid arthritis and 1530 control individuals were included. Patients were older, less well educated, more disabled, and had poorer levels of general health as compared with control individuals (all P < 0.01). Preliminary analyses revealed the presence of substantial statistical interaction between smoking and sex (P < 0.001). In separate multivariable analyses, past history of smoking was associated with increased risk for rheumatoid arthritis overall in men (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.2–3.2) but not in women. Among men, this effect was seen only for rheumatoid factor-positive rheumatoid arthritis. There were significant interactions between smoking and age among women but not among men. We conclude that sex is a biologic effect modifier in the association between smoking and rheumatoid arthritis. The role of menopause in the etiology of rheumatoid arthritis merits further research.     

Liver Stiffness Measurement among Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B and C: Results from a 5-Year Prospective Study

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is widely used to evaluate liver fibrosis, but longitudinal studies are rare. The current study was aimed to monitor LSM during follow-up, and to evaluate the association of LSM data with mortality and liver-related outcomes. We included all patients with chronic viral hepatitis and valid LSM using Fibroscan. Information about liver biopsy, antiviral treatment, and clinical outcome was obtained from medical records and national registers. The study included 845 patients: 597 (71%) with hepatitis C virus (HCV), 235 (28%) with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and 13 (2%) with dual infection. The initial LSM distribution (<7/7–9.9/10–16.9/≥17 kPa) was 58%/16%/14%/12%. Among patients with initial LSM values of 7–9.9 kPa, 60% of HCV patients and 83% of HBV patients showed LSM values of <7 kPa at the latest follow-up. Progression rates (defined as >20% and >2 kPa increase, with one measure >7 kPa) were 3.4/100 person years (PY) for HCV and 1.5/100 PY for HBV infected patients. Patients with LSM values of ≥17 kPa had the same liver-related complication incidence as patients with biopsy-proven cirrhosis (11.1 versus 12.1/100 PY). Thirteen liver-related deaths occurred among HCV patients (0.6/100 PY), but none among HBV patients. Among patients who died of liver-related causes, all but one had baseline LSM values of ≥17 kPa. Overall, patients with LSM values <17 kPa were not associated with adverse outcomes. In contrast, LSM values ≥17 kPa were associated with significant risk of liver-related problems. The results of the current study suggest that clinical decisions should not be taken based on a single LSM measurement.     

A simple algorithm to predict the development of radiological erosions in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To produce a practical algorithm to predict which patients with early rheumatoid arthritis will develop radiological erosions. DESIGN: Primary care based prospective cohort study. SETTING: All general practices in the Norwich Health Authority, Norfolk. SUBJECTS: 175 patients notified to the Norfolk Arthritis Register were visited by a metrologist soon after they had presented to their general practitioners with inflammatory polyarthritis, and again after a further 12 months. All the patients satisfied the American Rheumatism Association''s 1987 criteria for rheumatoid arthritis and were seen by a metrologist within six months of the onset of symptoms. The study population was randomly split into a prediction sample (n = 105) for generating the algorithm and a validation sample (n = 70) for testing it. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictor variables measured at baseline included rheumatoid factor status, swelling of specific joint areas, duration of morning stiffness, nodules, disability score, age, sex, and disease duration when the patient first presented. The outcome variable was the presence of radiological erosions in the hands or feet, or both, after 12 months. RESULTS: A simple algorithm based on a combination of three variables--a positive rheumatoid factor test, swelling of at least two large joints, and a disease duration of more than three months--was best able to predict erosions. When the accuracy of this algorithm was tested with the validation sample, the erosion status of 79% of patients was predicted correctly. CONCLUSIONS: A simple algorithm based on three easily measured items of information can predict which patients are at high risk and which are at low risk of developing radiological erosions.