Changes in dispersal during species' range expansions

Explanations for rapid species' range expansions have typically been purely ecological, with little attention given to evolutionary processes. We tested predictions for the evolution of dispersal during range expansion using four species of wing-dimorphic bush cricket (Conocephalus discolor, Conocephalus dorsalis, Metrioptera roeselii, and Metrioptera brachyptera). We observed distinct changes in dispersal in the two species with expanding ranges. Recently colonized populations at the range margin showed increased frequencies of dispersive, long-winged (macropterous) individuals, compared with longer-established populations in the range core. This increase in dispersal appeared to be short-lived because 5-10 years after colonization populations showed similar incidences of macroptery to populations in the range core. These changes are consistent with evolutionary change; field patterns persisted when nymphs were reared under controlled environmental conditions, and range margin individuals reared in the laboratory flew farther than range core individuals in a wind tunnel. There was also a reproductive trade-off with dispersal in both females and males, which could explain the rapid reversion to lower rates of dispersal once populations become established. The effect of population density on wing morphology differed between populations from the range core (no significant effect of density) and expanding range margins (negative density dependence), which we propose is part of the mechanism of the changes in dispersal. Transient changes in dispersal are likely to be common in many species undergoing range expansion and can have major population and biogeographic consequences.     

Host‐targeted RAD‐Seq reveals genetic changes in the coral Oculina patagonica associated with range expansion along the Spanish Mediterranean coast

Many organisms are expanding their ranges in response to changing environmental conditions. Understanding the patterns of genetic diversity and adaptation along an expansion front is crucial to assessing a species’ long‐term success. While next‐generation sequencing techniques can reveal these changes in fine detail, ascribing them to a particular species can be difficult for organisms that live in close association with symbionts. Using a novel modified restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RAD‐Seq) protocol to target coral DNA, we collected 595 coral‐specific single nucleotide polymorphisms from 189 colonies of the invasive coral Oculina patagonica from the Spanish Mediterranean coast, including established core populations and two expansion fronts. Surprisingly, populations from the recent northern expansion are genetically distinct from the westward expansion and core populations and also harbour greater genetic diversity. We found that temperature may have driven adaptation along the northern expansion, as genome scans for selection found three candidate loci associated with temperature in the north but none in the west. We found no genomic signature of selection associated with artificial substrate, which has been proposed for explaining the rapid spread of O. patagonica. This suggests that this coral is simply an opportunistic colonizer of free space made available by coastal habitat modifications. Our results suggest that unique genetic variation, possibly due to limited dispersal across the Ibiza Channel, an influx of individuals from different depths and/or adaptation to cooler temperatures along the northern expansion front may have facilitated the northward range expansion of O. patagonica in the western Mediterranean.     

Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species’ current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species’ ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD‐sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread.     

Shifting dispersal modes at an expanding species’ range margin

While it is generally recognized that noncontiguous (long‐distance) dispersal of small numbers of individuals is important for range expansion over large geographic areas, it is often assumed that colonization on more local scales proceeds by population expansion and diffusion dispersal (larger numbers of individuals colonizing adjacent sites). There are few empirical studies of dispersal modes at the front of expanding ranges, and very little information is available on dispersal dynamics at smaller geographic scales where we expect contiguous (diffusion) dispersal to be prevalent. We used highly polymorphic genetic markers to characterize dispersal modes at a local geographic scale for populations at the edge of the range of a newly invasive grass species (Brachypodium sylvaticum) that is undergoing rapid range expansion in the Pacific Northwest of North America. Comparisons of Bayesian clustering of populations, patterns of genetic diversity, and gametic disequilibrium indicate that new populations are colonized ahead of the invasion front by noncontiguous dispersal from source populations, with admixture occurring as populations age. This pattern of noncontiguous colonization was maintained even at a local scale. Absence of evidence for dispersal among adjacent pioneer sites at the edge of the expanding range of this species suggests that pioneer populations undergo an establishment phase during which they do not contribute emigrants for colonization of neighbouring sites. Our data indicate that dispersal modes change as the invasion matures: initial colonization processes appear to be dominated by noncontiguous dispersal from only a few sources, while contiguous dispersal may play a greater role once populations become established.     

Role of larval host plants in the climate-driven range expansion of the butterfly Polygonia c-album

1. Some species have expanded their ranges during recent climate warming and the availability of breeding habitat and species' dispersal ability are two important factors determining expansions. The exploitation of a wide range of larval host plants should increase an herbivorous insect species' ability to track climate by increasing habitat availability. Therefore we investigated whether the performance of a species on different host plants changed towards its range boundary, and under warmer temperatures. 2. We studied the polyphagous butterfly Polygonia c-album, which is currently expanding its range in Britain and apparently has altered its host plant preference from Humulus lupulus to include other hosts (particularly Ulmus glabra and Urtica dioica). We investigated insect performance (development time, larval growth rate, adult size, survival) and adult flight morphology on these host plants under four rearing temperatures (18-28.5 degrees C) in populations from core and range margin sites. 3. In general, differences between core and margin populations were small compared with effects of rearing temperature and host plant. In terms of insect performance, host plants were generally ranked U. glabra > or = U. dioica > H. lupulus at all temperatures. Adult P. c-album can either enter diapause or develop directly and higher temperatures resulted in more directly developing adults, but lower survival rates (particularly on the original host H. lupulus) and smaller adult size. 4. Adult flight morphology of wild-caught individuals from range margin populations appeared to be related to increased dispersal potential relative to core populations. However, there was no difference in laboratory reared individuals, and conflicting results were obtained for different measures of flight morphology in relation to larval host plant and temperature effects, making conclusions about dispersal potential difficult. 5. Current range expansion of P. c-album is associated with the exploitation of more widespread host plants on which performance is improved. This study demonstrates how polyphagy may enhance the ability of species to track climate change. Our findings suggest that observed differences in climate-driven range shifts of generalist vs. specialist species may increase in the future and are likely to lead to greatly altered community composition.     

The phylogeographical clade trade: tracing the impact of human-mediated dispersal on the colonization of northern Europe by the oak gallwasp Andricus kollari

Human dispersal of organisms is an important process modifying natural patterns of biodiversity. Such dispersal generates new patterns of genetic diversity that overlie natural phylogeographical signatures, allowing discrimination between alternative dispersal mechanisms. Here we use allele frequency and DNA sequence data to distinguish between alternative scenarios (unassisted range expansion and long range introduction) for the colonization of northern Europe by an oak-feeding gallwasp, Andricus kollari. Native to Mediterranean latitudes from Portugal to Iran, this species became established in northern Europe following human introduction of a host plant, the Turkey oak Quercus cerris. Colonization of northern Europe is possible through three alternative routes: (i) unassisted range expansion from natural populations in the Iberian Peninsula; (ii) unassisted range expansion from natural populations in Italy and Hungary; or (iii) descent from populations imported to the UK as trade goods from the eastern Mediterranean in the 1830s. We show that while populations in France were colonized from sources in Italy and Hungary, populations in the UK and neighbouring parts of coastal northern Europe encompass allozyme and sequence variation absent from the known native range. Further, these populations show demographic signatures expected for large stable populations, rather than signatures of rapid population growth from small numbers of founders. The extent and spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the UK suggests that these A. kollari populations are derived from introductions of large numbers of individuals from each of two genetically divergent centres of diversity in the eastern Mediterranean. The strong spatial patterning in genetic diversity observed between different regions of northern Europe, and between sites in the UK, is compatible with leptokurtic models of population establishment.     

Consistent life history shifts along invasion routes? An examination of round goby populations invading on two continents

Aim

Many invasive populations exhibit dynamic life history shifts along their invasion route. We investigated whether these shifts represent consistent biological responses of a given species to range expansion, even in systems located in different geographic regions.

Location

North‐eastern France, Central Ontario (Canada).

Method

We investigated population density, life history traits and age‐specific reproductive investment in expanding populations of round goby at three invasion stages (expansion front, area colonized one year earlier and area colonized for ~five years) along the invasive routes in two river systems differing in climate and system productivity. Interindividual variability, shown to affect range expansion rates, was also investigated along the invasion routes. The study was based on female round gobies collected in three locations within each invasion stage twice monthly throughout the reproductive season (March/May to July).

Results

In both systems, reproductive investment was highest in the newly colonized area and decreased with time since colonization. A faster decrease in reproductive investment was found in the warmer, more productive system behind the invasion front, potentially associated with faster population growth and increased intraspecific competition. In both systems, individual variability in growth and reproductive traits increased from the newly colonized area to the areas of earlier colonization.

Main conclusions

The patterns observed in the two systems suggest a common invasion strategy independent of environmental conditions and highlight the dynamic nature of invasive populations’ life history behind the invasion front. Common energetic allocation strategies can be expected at the invasion front. Range expansion may be associated with population growth induced by rapid acclimation to biotic conditions associated with range shift.

     

Have your cake and eat it too: greater dispersal ability and faster germination towards range edges of an invasive plant species in eastern Australia

The process of range expansion often selects for traits that maximize invasion success at range edges. For example, during range expansion, individuals with greater dispersal and colonization ability will be selected for towards range edges. For wind dispersed plants, however, there exists a fundamental trade-off between dispersal and colonization ability (germination success and growth) that is mediated by seed size; smaller seeds often have greater dispersal ability but poorer colonization ability. We investigated the nature of the dispersal/colonization trade-off by comparing dispersal ability (wing loading ratio: seed mass/wing area), germination success and growth related traits across multiple populations of a coastal exotic invasive plant species (Gladiolus gueinzii Kunze) along its entire introduced distribution in eastern Australia. We found that G. gueinzii had significantly greater dispersal ability towards its range edges which was mediated by a decrease in seed mass. However, this was not associated with a decrease in probability of germination or growth after 3 months. In fact, seeds from range edge populations had significantly faster germination times. Our results suggest that a shift towards greater dispersal ability does not have an associated negative effect on the colonization ability of G. gueinzii and may be a key factor in promoting further range expansion of this exotic invasive species.     

Precocious reproduction increases at the leading edge of a mangrove range expansion

Climate change‐driven shifts in species ranges are ongoing and expected to increase. However, life‐history traits may interact with climate to influence species ranges, potentially accelerating or slowing range shifts in response to climate change. Tropical mangroves have expanded their ranges poleward in the last three decades. Here, we report on a shift at the range edge in life‐history traits related to reproduction and dispersal. With a common garden experiment and field observations, we show that Rhizophora mangle individuals from northern populations reproduce at a younger age than those from southern populations. In a common garden at the northern range limit, 38% of individuals from the northernmost population were reproductive by age 2, but less than 10% of individuals from the southernmost population were reproductive by the same age, with intermediate amounts of reproduction from intermediate latitudes. Field observations show a similar pattern of younger reproductive individuals toward the northern range limit. We also demonstrate a shift toward larger propagule size in populations at the leading range edge, which may aid seedling growth. The substantial increase in precocious reproduction at the leading edge of the R. mangle range could accelerate population growth and hasten the expansion of mangroves into salt marshes.     

Climate and habitat configuration limit range expansion and patterns of dispersal in a non‐native lizard

Invasive species are one of the main causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. As introduced, populations increase in abundance and geographical range, so does the potential for negative impacts on native communities. As such, there is a need to better understand the processes driving range expansion as species become established in recipient landscapes. Through an investigation into capacity for population growth and range expansion of introduced populations of a non‐native lizard (Podarcis muralis), we aimed to demonstrate how multi‐scale factors influence spatial spread, population growth, and invasion potential in introduced species. We collated location records of P. muralis presence in England, UK through data collected from field surveys and a citizen science campaign. We used these data as input for presence‐background models to predict areas of climate suitability at a national‐scale (5 km resolution), and fine‐scale habitat suitability at the local scale (2 m resolution). We then integrated local models into an individual‐based modeling platform to simulate population dynamics and forecast range expansion for 10 populations in heterogeneous landscapes. National‐scale models indicated climate suitability has restricted the species to the southern parts of the UK, primarily by a latitudinal cline in overwintering conditions. Patterns of population growth and range expansion were related to differences in local landscape configuration and heterogeneity. Growth curves suggest populations could be in the early stages of exponential growth. However, annual rates of range expansion are predicted to be low (5–16 m). We conclude that extensive nationwide range expansion through secondary introduction is likely to be restricted by currently unsuitable climate beyond southern regions of the UK. However, exponential growth of local populations in habitats providing transport pathways is likely to increase opportunities for regional expansion. The broad habitat niche of P. muralis, coupled with configuration of habitat patches in the landscape, allows populations to increase locally with minimal dispersal.     

Evidence for rapid evolution of phenology in an invasive grass

Evolutionary dynamics of integrative traits such as phenology are predicted to be critically important to range expansion and invasion success, yet there are few empirical examples of such phenomena. In this study, we used multiple common gardens to examine the evolutionary significance of latitudinal variation in phenology of a widespread invasive species, the Asian short‐day flowering annual grass Microstegium vimineum. In environmentally controlled growth chambers, we grew plants from seeds collected from multiple latitudes across the species' invasive range. Flowering time and biomass were both strongly correlated with the latitude of population origin such that populations collected from more northern latitudes flowered significantly earlier and at lower biomass than populations from southern locations. We suggest that this pattern may be the result of rapid adaptive evolution of phenology over a period of less than one hundred years and that such changes have likely promoted the northward range expansion of this species. We note that possible barriers to gene flow, including bottlenecks and inbreeding, have apparently not forestalled evolutionary processes for this plant. Furthermore, we hypothesize that evolution of phenology may be a widespread and potentially essential process during range expansion for many invasive plant species.     

Extremely low genetic diversity and extensive genetic admixture at the northern range margins of Bombax ceiba

Understanding the evolutionary processes in species at the margins of their range is of great significance, because marginal populations may harbor local adaptations and will initiate further expansion in response to changes in the environment. Here we examined genetic variation in two nuclear genes and one chloroplast intergenic spacer in 13 northern marginal populations and one geographically central population of Bombax ceiba, a tree distributed mainly in tropical regions. Our results revealed an extremely low level of genetic diversity in each population at the northern margin of its range and strong genetic differentiation between southern China and South Asia. Cultivated and natural populations showed no significant differences in genetic variability. Genetic admixture in a nuclear gene was detected in 10 of the 13 populations at the northern margin of their range. The founder effect, in which a small number of individuals colonize the northern margins of its range, may explain the extremely low genetic diversity. During the establishment of new populations, different source populations may mix and undergo further genetic drift and differentiation. This study indicates that patterns of genetic diversity in tropical species at the margin of their range may also be severely influenced by founder effects.     

The evolution of growth rates on an expanding range edge

Individuals in the vanguard of a species invasion face altered selective conditions when compared with conspecifics behind the invasion front. Assortment by dispersal ability on the expanding front, for example, drives the evolution of increased dispersal, which, in turn, leads to accelerated rates of invasion. Here I propose an additional evolutionary mechanism to explain accelerating invasions: shifts in population growth rate (r). Because individuals in the vanguard face lower population density than those in established populations, they should (relative to individuals in established populations) experience greater r-selection. To test this possibility, I used the ongoing invasion of cane toads (Bufo marinus) across northern Australia. Life-history theory shows that the most efficient way to increase the rate of population growth is to reproduce earlier. Thus, I predict that toads on the invasion front will exhibit faster individual growth rates (and thus will reach breeding size earlier) than those from older populations. Using a common garden design, I show that this is indeed the case: both tadpoles and juvenile toads from frontal populations grow around 30 per cent faster than those from older, long established populations. These results support theoretical predictions that r increases during range advance and highlight the importance of understanding the evolution of life history during range advance.     

Evolutionary increase in sexual and clonal reproductive capacity during biological invasion in an aquatic plant Butomus umbellatus (Butomaceae)

To test the hypothesis that increased allocation to reproduction is selected during biological invasion, we compared germination, survival, growth, and reproduction of native vs. introduced populations of the invasive aquatic plant Butomus umbellatus in a common greenhouse environment. Although seedling emergence and establishment did not differ consistently, survival thereafter was twice as high for eight introduced North American than eight native European populations. As predicted, introduced plants were more likely to produce sexual inflorescences and clonal asexual vegetative bulbils, and they invested much more biomass in both reproductive modes. Higher reproductive investment was due to higher proportional allocation of biomass rather than larger plant size. These results are consistent with selection for increased reproduction during range expansion. However, population genetic surveys indicate that recruitment from seed rarely occurs in introduced populations. Hence increased sexual allocation is not an adaptive response to invasion. Although increased clonal reproduction may be advantageous in expanding populations, genetic evidence from introduced populations of B. umbellatus suggests that increased clonal allocation may have arisen via stochastic processes during long-distance transport or a selective filter right at introduction, rather than incremental natural selection during range expansion.     

Does a facultative mutualism limit species range expansion?

The availability and quality of mutualists beyond a species’ range edge may limit range expansion. With the legume Chamaecrista fasciculata, we asked to what extent the availability and quality of rhizobia beyond the range edge limits host range expansion. We tested the effect of rhizobia availability on plant growth by transplanting seed from three locations into five sites spanning C. fasciculata’s range (interior, at the northern and western range edges, and beyond the range edges), and inoculating half the seeds with rhizobia. We recorded growth of all surviving plants, and, for the uninoculated plants, whether they had formed nodules or not. We isolated rhizobia from nodules collected on the uninoculated plants, and cross-inoculated seed from four populations (both range edge and interior populations) in the greenhouse to determine whether the quality of rhizobia differed between regions. We found that seeds transplanted beyond the range edge were less likely to be nodulated when they were not experimentally inoculated, and there was benefit to inoculation at all sites. In the greenhouse, the three inocula that formed nodules on plants, from the range interior, northern edge and beyond the northern edge, did not detectably differ in their effect on plant growth. These results suggest that low densities of suitable rhizobia beyond the range edge may limit range expansion of legume species.     

Bergmann's rule is maintained during a rapid range expansion in a damselfly

Climate‐induced range shifts result in the movement of a sample of genotypes from source populations to new regions. The phenotypic consequences of those shifts depend upon the sample characteristics of the dispersive genotypes, which may act to either constrain or promote phenotypic divergence, and the degree to which plasticity influences the genotype–environment interaction. We sampled populations of the damselfly Erythromma viridulum from northern Europe to quantify the phenotypic (latitude–body size relationship based on seven morphological traits) and genetic (variation at microsatellite loci) patterns that occur during a range expansion itself. We find a weak spatial genetic structure that is indicative of high gene flow during a rapid range expansion. Despite the potentially homogenizing effect of high gene flow, however, there is extensive phenotypic variation among samples along the invasion route that manifests as a strong, positive correlation between latitude and body size consistent with Bergmann's rule. This positive correlation cannot be explained by variation in the length of larval development (voltinism). While the adaptive significance of latitudinal variation in body size remains obscure, geographical patterns in body size in odonates are apparently underpinned by phenotypic plasticity and this permits a response to one or more environmental correlates of latitude during a range expansion.     

Genomic diversity,population structure,and migration following rapid range expansion in the Balsam Poplar,Populus balsamifera

Rapid range expansions can cause pervasive changes in the genetic diversity and structure of populations. The postglacial history of the Balsam Poplar, Populus balsamifera, involved the colonization of most of northern North America, an area largely covered by continental ice sheets during the last glacial maximum. To characterize how this expansion shaped genomic diversity within and among populations, we developed 412 SNP markers that we assayed for a range‐wide sample of 474 individuals sampled from 34 populations. We complemented the SNP data set with DNA sequence data from 11 nuclear loci from 94 individuals, and used coalescent analyses to estimate historical population size, demographic growth, and patterns of migration. Bayesian clustering identified three geographically separated demes found in the Northern, Central, and Eastern portions of the species’ range. These demes varied significantly in nucleotide diversity, the abundance of private polymorphisms, and population substructure. Most measures supported the Central deme as descended from the primary refuge of diversity. Both SNPs and sequence data suggested recent population growth, and coalescent analyses of historical migration suggested a massive expansion from the Centre to the North and East. Collectively, these data demonstrate the strong influence that range expansions exert on genomic diversity, both within local populations and across the range. Our results suggest that an in‐depth knowledge of nucleotide diversity following expansion requires sampling within multiple populations, and highlight the utility of combining insights from different data types in population genomic studies.     

Genetic signature of recent glaciation on populations of a near-shore marine fish species (Syngnathus leptorhynchus)

Continental glaciation has played a major role in shaping the present-day phylogeography of freshwater and terrestrial species in the Northern Hemisphere. Recent work suggests that coastal glaciation during ice ages may have also had a significant impact on marine species. The bay pipefish, Syngnathus leptorhynchus , is a near-shore Pacific coast fish species with an exceptionally wide latitudinal distribution, ranging from Bahia Santa Maria, Baja California to Prince William Sound, Alaska. Survey data indicate that S. leptorhynchus is experiencing a range expansion at the northern limit of its range, consistent with colonization from southern populations. The present study uses six novel microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence data to study the present-day population genetic structure of four coastal populations of S. leptorhynchus . Deficits in mtDNA and nuclear DNA diversity in northern populations from regions glaciated during the last glacial maximum (LGM) [ c . 18 000 years before present ( bp )] suggest that these populations were effected by glacial events. Direct estimates of population divergence times derived from both isolation and isolation-with-migration models of evolution are also consistent with a postglacial phylogenetic history of populations north of the LGM. Sequence data further indicate that a population at the southern end of the species range has been separated from the three northern populations since long before the last interglacial event ( c . 130 000 years bp ), suggesting that topographical features along the Pacific coast may maintain population separation in regions unimpacted by coastal glaciation.     

Cold adaptation in the Asian tiger mosquito's native range precedes its invasion success in temperate regions

Adaptation to environmental conditions within the native range of exotic species can condition the invasion success of these species outside their range. The striking success of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, to invade temperate regions has been attributed to the winter survival of diapause eggs in cold environments. In this study, we evaluate genetic polymorphisms (SNPs) and wing morphometric variation among three biogeographical regions of the native range of A. albopictus. Reconstructed demographic histories of populations show an initial expansion in Southeast Asia and suggest that marine regression during late Pleistocene and climate warming after the last glacial period favored expansion of populations in southern and northern regions, respectively. Searching for genomic signatures of selection, we identified significantly differentiated SNPs among which several are located in or within 20 kb distance from candidate genes for cold adaptation. These genes involve cellular and metabolic processes and several of them have been shown to be differentially expressed under diapausing conditions. The three biogeographical regions also differ for wing size and shape, and wing size increases with latitude supporting Bergmann's rule. Adaptive genetic and morphometric variation observed along the climatic gradient of A. albopictus native range suggests that colonization of northern latitudes promoted adaptation to cold environments prior to its worldwide invasion.     

Reproductive timing as a constraint on invasion success in the Ring-necked parakeet (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Psittacula krameri</Emphasis>)

Climate similarity favors biological invasion, but a match between seasonality in the novel range and the timing of life cycle events of the invader also influences the outcome of species introduction. Yet, phenology effects on invasion success have generally been neglected. Here we study whether a phenological mismatch limits the non-native range of a globally successful invader, the Ring-necked parakeet, in Europe. Given the latitudes at which parakeets have established across Europe, they breed earlier than expected based on breeding dates from the native Asian range. Moreover, comparing the breeding dates of European populations to those of parakeets in the native Asian range, to five native breeding bird species in Europe and to the start of the growing season of four native European trees shows that the discrepancy between expected and actual breeding phenology is greater in northern Europe. In northern European populations, this temporal mismatch appears to have negative effects on hatching success, and on population growth rates in years that are colder than average in the first six months. Phenological mismatch also can explain why parakeets from African populations (that are more likely to breed in autumn) have been poor invaders compared to parakeets from Asia. These lines of evidence support the hypothesis that the reproductive phenology of the Ring-necked parakeet can be a limiting factor for establishment and range expansion in colder climates. Our results provide growing support for the hypothesis that the match between climate seasonality and timing of reproduction (or other important life cycle events) can affect the establishment success, invasive potential and distribution range of introduced non-native species, beyond the mere effect of climate similarity.