Matrix Intensification Affects Body and Physiological Condition of Tropical Forest-Dependent Passerines

Matrix land-use intensification is a relatively recent and novel landscape change that can have important influences on the biota within adjacent habitat patches. While there are immediate local changes that it brings about, the influences on individual animals occupying adjacent habitats may be less evident initially. High-intensity land use could induce chronic stress in individuals in nearby remnants, leading ultimately to population declines. We investigated how physiological indicators and body condition measures of tropical forest-dependent birds differ between forest adjacent to surface mining sites and that near farmlands at two distances from remnant edge in southwest Ghana. We used mixed effects models of several condition indices including residual body mass and heterophil to lymphocyte (H/L) ratios (an indicator of elevated chronic stress) to explore the effect of matrix intensity on forest-dependent passerines classed as either sedentary area-sensitive habitat specialists or nomadic generalists. Individual birds occupying tropical forest remnants near surface mining sites were in poorer condition, as indicated by lower residual body mass and elevated chronic stress, compared to those in remnants near agricultural lands. The condition of the sedentary forest habitat specialists white-tailed alethe, Alethe diademata and western olive sunbird, Cyanomitra obscura was most negatively affected by high-intensity surface mining land-use adjacent to remnants, whereas generalist species were not affected. Land use intensification may set in train a new trajectory of faunal relaxation beyond that expected based on habitat loss alone. Patterns of individual condition may be useful in identifying habitats where species population declines may occur before faunal relaxation has concluded.     

A tale of two polar bear populations: ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.     

Simple signals indicate which period of the annual cycle drives declines in seasonal populations

For declining wild populations, a critical aspect of effective conservation is understanding when and where the causes of decline occur. The primary drivers of decline in migratory and seasonal populations can often be attributed to a specific period of the year. However, generic, broadly applicable indicators of these season‐specific drivers of population decline remain elusive. We used a multi‐generation experiment to investigate whether habitat loss in either the breeding or non‐breeding period generated distinct signatures of population decline. When breeding habitat was reduced, population size remained relatively stable for several generations, before declining precipitously. When non‐breeding habitat was reduced, between‐season variation in population counts increased relative to control populations, and non‐breeding population size declined steadily. Changes in seasonal vital rates and other indicators were predicted by the season in which habitat loss treatment occurred. Per capita reproductive output increased when non‐breeding habitat was reduced and decreased with breeding habitat reduction, whereas per capita non‐breeding survival showed the opposite trends. Our results reveal how simple signals inherent in counts and demographics of declining populations can indicate which period of the annual cycle is driving declines.     

Spatial and temporal variation in population trends in a long‐distance migratory bird

Aim Over the past three decades, evidence has been growing that many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird populations have suffered sustained and severe declines. As causes of these declines exist across both the breeding and non‐breeding season, identifying potential drivers of population change is complex. In order to explore the roles of changes in regional and local environmental conditions on population change, we examine spatial and temporal variation in population trajectories of one of Europe’s most abundant Afro‐Palaearctic summer migrants, the willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus. Location Britain and Ireland. Methods We use national survey data from Britain and Ireland (BBS: BTO/RSPB/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey and CBS: BWI/NPWS/Heritage Council Countryside Breeding Survey) from 1994 to 2006 to model the spatial and temporal variation in willow warbler population trends. Results Across Britain and Ireland, population trends follow a gradient from sharp declines in the south and east of England to shallow declines and/or slight increases in parts of north and west England, across Scotland and Ireland. Decreasing the spatial scale of analysis reveals variation in both the rate and spatial extent of population change within central England and the majority of Scotland. The rates of population change also vary temporally; declines in the south of England are shallower now than at the start of the time series, whereas populations further north in Britain have undergone periods of increase and decline. Main conclusion These patterns suggest that regional‐scale drivers, such as changing climatic conditions, and local‐scale processes, such as habitat change, are interacting to produce spatially variable population trends. We discuss the potential mechanisms underlying these interactions and the challenges in addressing such changes at scales relevant to migratory species.     

Changes in bird populations on sample lowland English farms in relation to loss of hedgerows and other non-crop habitats

Farmland bird population trends were examined on a sample of lowland English farms to assess the relative importance of habitat loss and habitat degradation. Data were extracted from 11 farms surveyed by territory mapping between 1966 and 1986 as part of the British Trust for Ornithology's Common Birds Census. The population size of 38 bird species was quantified for each farm in each year. The extents of five non-crop habitats were measured at 4-yearly intervals on each farm. The farms were selected because some had undergone extensive removal of non-crop habitats while others had undergone little or none. Although declines were commonest on farms where the severest habitat loss had taken place, we found no evidence that habitat loss was the main factor causing population declines: all 11 farms had significant numbers of declining species, even where habitat loss was minimal. Furthermore, general linear modelling found no significant effects of habitat loss on population trends and principal-components analysis found limited effects of habitat extent on community composition. These results suggest that habitat loss is of secondary importance in causing farmland bird population declines. We suggest that other processes, such as habitat degradation, may have caused a baseline population decline in at least 10 farmland bird species and that declines may have been exacerbated by localised habitat loss. Received: 4 February 1998 / Accepted: 1 April 1998     

Common pattern of population decline for freshwater cetacean species in deteriorating habitats

1. Freshwater cetacean species, including the baiji (Lipotes vexillifer), Amazon River dolphin (Inia geoffrensis), Ganges/Indus River dolphins (Platanista spp.) and Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis), apex predators in megariver ecosystems, face serious challenges owing to the deterioration of habitat quality. 2. We simulated population change of four freshwater cetacean species under increasing habitat deterioration. Carrying capacity (K) was used to represent the habitat quality, and a logistic model was used to describe the rate of habitat deterioration (dK). 3. An individual‐based Leslie matrix model showed that population declines and extinctions in freshwater cetaceans under increasing habitat deterioration exhibit a consistent pattern irrespective of the initial level of K or population size. When dK is low, population abundance fluctuates stochastically around initial K, but a rapid increase in dK is accompanied by a sharp population decline, with a residual population ultimately declining continuously to extinction. 4. Simulations show that traditional census survey techniques used in cetacean species are unlikely to detect early signs of population decline before a critical level is reached. 5. Empirical data of the likely extinction of baiji strongly agree with our simulation exercise, implying that extinction of other freshwater cetacean species may occur sooner than previously considered. Hence, precautionary approaches for habitat restoration and landscape management should be implemented before freshwater cetacean population declines are detected, and ideally, before habitat quality begins to deteriorate.     

Distribution and individual condition reveal a hierarchy of habitat suitability for an area-sensitive passerine

The identification of environmental factors linked to increased risk of local extinction often relies on inference from patterns of distribution. Yet for declining populations, the assumption of population equilibrium that underlies species distribution models is violated. Measures such as individual condition can provide a more direct indication of extinction risk, and can start to be detected before declines commence. We compared distribution-based and condition-based approaches to identifying factors affecting habitat suitability for an area-sensitive passerine, the eastern yellow robin Eopsaltria australis, in eastern Australia. We compared patterns of individual condition between robins and several common, more mobile species (Meliphagid honeyeaters and yellow thornbills Acanthiza nana). Robin presence was not affected by landscape context, but robins avoided sites with a more grassy ground layer. However, robins inhabiting landscapes with less remnant woodland had higher ratios of heterophils to lymphocytes in peripheral blood, indicating higher long-term stress. No clear spatial patterns of condition were detected for the more mobile species. Our findings suggest a hierarchical model of habitat suitability, whereby robins avoid grassy sites, but where they do occur are in poorest condition when inhabiting less-vegetated landscapes. We predict greater rates of local extinction of robins from such landscapes. The use of indicators of individual condition, in addition to distribution data, can unveil otherwise cryptic factors as important influences on habitat quality. As habitat occupancy does not always reflect habitat quality, exploring patterns in condition indices can complement species distribution modelling, potentially revealing threats to persistence before population declines have commenced.     

Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly; and (ii) caution should be exercised when using predicted changes in total habitat suitability or geographic extent to infer extinction risk, because the relationship between these metrics is often weak. Measures of extinction risk, which quantify threats to population persistence, are particularly sensitive to life‐history traits, such as recruitment response to fire, which explained approximately 60% of the deviance in expected minimum abundance. Dispersal dynamics and habitat patch structure have the strongest influence on the amount of movement of the trailing and leading edge of the range margin, explaining roughly 40% of modeled structural deviance. These results underscore the need to consider direct measures of extinction risk (population declines and other measures of stochastic viability), as well as measures of change in habitat area, when assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity. Furthermore, direct estimation of extinction risk incorporates important demographic and ecosystem processes, which potentially influence species’ vulnerability to extinction due to climate change.     

High variability in patterns of population decline: the importance of local processes in species extinctions

A fundamental goal of conservation science is to improve conservation practice. Understanding species extinction patterns has been a central approach towards this objective. However, uncertainty remains about the extent to which species-level patterns reliably indicate population phenomena at the scale of local sites, where conservation ultimately takes place. Here, we explore the importance of both species- and site-specific components of variation in local population declines following habitat disturbance, and test a suite of hypotheses about their intrinsic and extrinsic drivers. To achieve these goals, we analyse an unusually detailed global dataset for species responses to habitat disturbance, namely primates in timber extraction systems, using cross-classified generalized linear mixed models. We show that while there are consistent differences in the severity of local population decline between species, an equal amount of variation also occurs between sites. The tests of our hypotheses further indicate that a combination of biological traits at the species level, and environmental factors at the site level, can help to explain these patterns. Specifically, primate populations show a more marked decline when the species is characterized by slow reproduction, high ecological requirements, low ecological flexibility and small body size; and when the local environment has had less time for recovery following disturbance. Our results demonstrate that individual species show a highly heterogeneous, yet explicable, pattern of decline. The increased recognition and elucidation of local-scale processes in species declines will improve our ability to conserve biodiversity in the future.     

Can reintroductions to degraded habitat succeed? A test using the common brushtail possum

Habitat degradation contributes to species decline, and habitat quality is an important factor influencing reintroduction success globally. Habitat quality can include a range of physical resources such as nest sites and food resources but also anything that can restrict the use of these resources such as predation risk or competition. In arid Australia, introduced predators are thought to be the primary cause of mammal extinction and reintroduction failure although habitat clearance and alteration are also major causes of population decline. Common brushtail possums are one arid Australian marsupial close to regional extinction. To understand whether habitat quality was limiting their recovery, we reintroduced 148 possums into an area where introduced red foxes were controlled but historic overgrazing had degraded the habitat. We measured both direct (hollow availability, midstorey cover and high‐quality plant foods) and indirect (survival, condition, reproduction, movement) measures of habitat quality. Sixty‐seven released possums and 26 post‐release recruits were radiocollared for up to 2 years after release. Post‐release survival of radiocollared possums was high after 12 months (0.70), and there were no deaths from starvation. Predation by feral cats was the most common cause of mortality, and the open, degraded habitat may have exacerbated predation risk. Continuous breeding, good body condition and comparative home ranges with other sites suggested that food resources were not limiting. Possums used natural tree hollows in Eucalyptus spp. with no use of artificial nest boxes. Results suggest that historically degraded habitat was not a barrier to short‐term reintroduction success when foxes were controlled and natural tree hollows were plentiful. However, demographic data on hollow‐bearing tree species suggest a possible future decline in availability of hollows. These factors, combined with the unknown effects of drought, and synergistic effects of predation and poor quality habitat, suggest long‐term reintroduction success may require improved habitat and cat control.     

Habitat structure and body size distributions: cross‐ecosystem comparison for taxa with determinate and indeterminate growth

Habitat structure across multiple spatial and temporal scales has been proposed as a key driver of body size distributions for associated communities. Thus, understanding the relationship between habitat and body size is fundamental to developing predictions regarding the influence of habitat change on animal communities. Much of the work assessing the relationship between habitat structure and body size distributions has focused on terrestrial taxa with determinate growth, and has primarily analysed discontinuities (gaps) in the distribution of species mean sizes (species size relationships or SSRs). The suitability of this approach for taxa with indeterminate growth has yet to be determined. We provide a cross‐ecosystem comparison of bird (determinate growth) and fish (indeterminate growth) body mass distributions using four independent data sets. We evaluate three size distribution indices: SSRs, species size–density relationships (SSDRs) and individual size–density relationships (ISDRs), and two types of analysis: looking for either discontinuities or abundance patterns and multi‐modality in the distributions. To assess the respective suitability of these three indices and two analytical approaches for understanding habitat–size relationships in different ecosystems, we compare their ability to differentiate bird or fish communities found within contrasting habitat conditions. All three indices of body size distribution are useful for examining the relationship between cross‐scale patterns of habitat structure and size for species with determinate growth, such as birds. In contrast, for species with indeterminate growth such as fish, the relationship between habitat structure and body size may be masked when using mean summary metrics, and thus individual‐level data (ISDRs) are more useful. Furthermore, ISDRs, which have traditionally been used to study aquatic systems, present a potentially useful common currency for comparing body size distributions across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.     

Effects of fragmented breeding habitat and resource distribution on behavior and survival of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus)

Habitat fragmentation causes negative population trends or even local extinction in many species. Understanding the role of fragmentation on behavior and space use of animals is an essential part of revealing the mechanism behind observed population declines. We studied experimentally the effects of small-scale habitat fragmentation on the distribution and movement of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in seminatural enclosures. We predicted that besides habitat structure, availability of two resources, food for both sexes, and receptive females for males, determine individual distribution. We manipulated female density (either 0, 4, or 12 per enclosure) and followed movements of radio-collared males. We also studied the effect of unequal food distribution between the fragments on vole distribution. The habitat of 0.25-ha enclosures was manipulated by forming either one large, two medium-sized, or four small habitat patches surrounded by an inhospitable matrix. Female density and distribution clearly affected male spacing behavior. Males had larger home ranges in the medium female density enclosures. Furthermore, the use of the inhospitable and risky matrix area increased with habitat fragmentation. Food supplementation improved individual condition measured as body mass but did not affect breeding success. Our experiments demonstrated that both small-scale habitat fragmentation and resource distribution affect the behavior and condition of individuals. Increased fragmentation led to increased risk taking in both mating and foraging behavior. This should have direct survival and fitness consequences, and therefore our results may be extrapolated to population-level consequences of habitat fragmentation.     

Survival and causes of mortality among wild Red-legged Partridges Alectoris rufa in southern Spain: implications for conservation

Knowledge of intrinsic and extrinsic factors associated with survival rates and the underlying causes of mortality is essential to understand both population dynamics and the causes of population declines. We studied the influence of habitat variables and body condition on survival of 151 radio‐tracked Red‐legged Partridges Alectoris rufa in four areas of Spain, representing a gradient from natural unmanaged areas to highly managed areas. We examined the effects of differences in game management practices, and seasonal and geographical variations in survival and causes of mortality over 4 years, from 1999 to 2002. Monthly survival rate was consistently over 90% for both sexes in the natural area. However, in two areas managed intensively for both hunting and agriculture, survival was low during the hunting period (72% for females and 79% for males), high during the breeding period for males (99%), and intermediate for females (89%) due mainly to diseases. Hunting was the main cause of Red‐legged Partridge mortality in both hunting areas where driven partridge shooting was performed, affecting 50% of radio‐tagged individuals, and was the main cause of mortality over all areas during both breeding and hunting periods. Disease was the next most common cause of mortality in managed areas, affecting mostly females during the breeding period, whereas predation was the main cause of mortality in unmanaged populations. Finally, we compared the habitat associations and body condition of living and dead individuals with varying causes of mortality. In general, high survival rates were associated with diverse vegetation, habitat edges and a good body condition index. Habitat diversity and a high edge index were also negatively associated with mortality due to predation and diseases. On the other hand, hunting mortality decreased with the proportion of scrubland and increased with the proportion of agricultural land. These results suggest that preventing declines of wild Red‐legged Partridge populations might best be achieved by increasing landscape complexity and connectivity, and promoting game management practices to limit both partridge bags and long‐term densities.     

Complexity in conservation: lessons from the global decline of amphibian populations

As part of an overall "biodiversity crisis" many amphibian populations are in decline throughout the world. Numerous causes have been invoked to explain these declines. These include habitat destruction, climate change, increasing levels of ultraviolet radiation, environmental contamination, disease, and the introduction of non-native species. In this paper, we argue that amphibian population declines are caused by different abiotic and biotic factors acting together in a context-dependent fashion. Moreover, different species and different populations of the same species may react in different ways to the same environmental insult. Thus, the causes of amphibian population declines will vary spatially and temporally. Although some generalizations (e.g. those concerning environmental stress and disease outbreaks) can be made about amphibian population declines, we suggest that these generalizations take into account the context-dependent dynamics of ecological systems.     

Plant species response to land use change –Campanula rotundifolia, Primula veris and Rhinanthus minor

Land use change is a crucial driver behind species loss at the landscape scale. Hence, from a conservation perspective, species response to habitat degradation or improvement of habitat quality, is important to examine. By using indicator species it may be possible to monitor long-term survival of local populations associated with land use change. In this study we examined three potential indicator (response) species for species richness and composition in Scandinavian semi-natural grassland communities: Campanula rotundifolia , Primula veris and Rhinanthus minor . With field inventories and experiments we examined their response to present land use, habitat degradation and improvement of local habitat quality. At the time scale examined, C. rotundifolia was the only species responding to both habitat degradation and improvement of habitat quality. Neither R. minor nor P. veris responded positively to habitat improvements although both responded rapidly to direct negative changes in habitat quality. Even though C. rotundifolia responded quickly to habitat degradation, it did not disappear completely from the sites. Instead, the population structure changed in terms of decreased population size and flowering frequency. It also showed an ability to form remnant populations which may increase resilience of local habitats. Although P. veris and especially R. minor responded rapidly to negative environmental changes and may be useful as early indicators of land use change, it is desirable that indicators respond to both degradation and improvement of habitat quality. Thus, C. rotundifolia is a better response species for monitoring effects of land use change and conservation measures, provided that both local and regional population dynamics are monitored over a long time period.     

Changing land management of lowland wet grasslands of the UK: impacts on snipe abundance and habitat quality

Snipe Gallinago gallinago breeding on lowland wet grasslands in England have undergone widespread and dramatic declines in abundance and distribution since at least the 1970s. There are many potential drivers of the decline but reductions in habitat quality, driven by land management, are often proposed as a contributing factor in the historical declines of breeding waders. Breeding snipe are now restricted to a few key places such as nature reserves and environmentally sensitive areas where management for breeding waders is implemented. On average, populations have continued to decline, even in these key areas, though population trends vary from a decline of 98% to an increase of 61% between the early 1990s and 2006. We examined the relationship between regional variation in snipe population trends and soil conditions, other habitat features and land management. Snipe were more likely to persist in fields where the soil conditions were wet and soft. Fields are wetter and softer now than in the early 1990s and management influenced these conditions. Soil softness increased with decreasing grazing pressure and increasing surface flooding. Soil moisture increased with surface flooding and was higher in organic soils. Changes in field condition were consistent with decreases in grazing pressure and increases in surface flooding. In spite of habitat condition being altered in a way that should have been beneficial to snipe, the numbers have continued to decline. Thus, it is unlikely that the measures of habitat condition examined here have been the driver of the decline and other factors must be involved. Research efforts should now focus on alternative explanations of the decline, for example, changes in other key aspects of habitat quality such as prey abundance, or changes in snipe productivity or mortality.     

Cumulative effects of land use,altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus,a rare,fire‐dependent plant species

Mediterranean ecosystems are among the highest in species richness and endemism globally and are also among the most sensitive to climate and land‐use change. Fire is an important driver of ecosystem processes in these systems; however, fire regimes have been substantially changed by human activities. Climate change is predicted to further alter fire regimes and species distributions, leading to habitat loss and threatening biodiversity. It is currently unknown what the population‐level effects of these landscape‐level changes will be. We linked a spatially explicit stochastic population model to dynamic bioclimate envelopes to investigate the effects of climate change, habitat loss and fragm entation and altered fire regime on population abundances of a long‐lived obligate seeding shrub, Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare endemic species of southern California. We tested a range of fire return intervals under the present and two future climate scenarios. We also assessed the impact of potential anthropogenic land‐use change by excluding land identified as developable by local governments. We found that the 35–50 year fire return interval resulted in the highest population abundances. Expected minimum population abundance (EMA) declined gradually as fire return interval increased, but declined dramatically for shorter fire intervals. Simulated future development resulted in a 33% decline in EMA, but relatively stable population trajectories over the time frame modeled. Relative changes in EMA for alternative fire intervals were similar for all climate and habitat loss scenarios, except under the more severe climate scenario which resulted in a change in the relative ranking of the fire scenarios. Our results show climate change to be the most serious threat facing obligate seeding shrubs embedded in urban landscapes, resulting in population decline and increased local extirpation, and that likely interactions with other threats increase risks to these species. Taking account of parameter uncertainty did not alter our conclusions.     

Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have experienced substantial changes in the seasonal availability of sea ice habitat in parts of their range, including the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. In this study, we compared the body size, condition, and recruitment of polar bears captured in the Chukchi and Bering Seas (CS) between two periods (1986–1994 and 2008–2011) when declines in sea ice habitat occurred. In addition, we compared metrics for the CS population 2008–2011 with those of the adjacent southern Beaufort Sea (SB) population where loss in sea ice habitat has been associated with declines in body condition, size, recruitment, and survival. We evaluated how variation in body condition and recruitment were related to feeding ecology. Comparing habitat conditions between populations, there were twice as many reduced ice days over continental shelf waters per year during 2008–2011 in the SB than in the CS. CS polar bears were larger and in better condition, and appeared to have higher reproduction than SB bears. Although SB and CS bears had similar diets, twice as many bears were fasting in spring in the SB than in the CS. Between 1986–1994 and 2008–2011, body size, condition, and recruitment indices in the CS were not reduced despite a 44‐day increase in the number of reduced ice days. Bears in the CS exhibited large body size, good body condition, and high indices of recruitment compared to most other populations measured to date. Higher biological productivity and prey availability in the CS relative to the SB, and a shorter recent history of reduced sea ice habitat, may explain the maintenance of condition and recruitment of CS bears. Geographic differences in the response of polar bears to climate change are relevant to range‐wide forecasts for this and other ice‐dependent species.     

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Evidence for density-dependent effects on body composition of a large omnivore in a changing Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Understanding the density-dependent processes that drive population demography in a changing world is critical in ecology, yet measuring performance–density relationships in long-lived mammalian species demands long-term data, limiting scientists' ability to observe such mechanisms. We tested performance–density relationships for an opportunistic omnivore, grizzly bears (Ursus arctos, Linnaeus, 1758) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with estimates of body composition (lean body mass and percent body fat) serving as indicators of individual performance over two decades (2000–2020) during which time pronounced environmental changes have occurred. Several high-calorie foods for grizzly bears have mostly declined in recent decades (e.g., whitebark pine [Pinus albicaulis, Engelm, 1863]), while increasing human impacts from recreation, development, and long-term shifts in temperatures and precipitation are altering the ecosystem. We hypothesized that individual lean body mass declines as population density increases (H1), and that this effect would be more pronounced among growing individuals (H2). We also hypothesized that omnivory helps grizzly bears buffer energy intake from changing foods, with body fat levels being independent from population density and environmental changes (H3). Our analyses showed that individual lean body mass was negatively related to population density, particularly among growing-age females, supporting H1 and partially H2. In contrast, population density or sex had little effect on body fat levels and rate of accumulation, indicating that sufficient food resources were available on the landscape to accommodate successful use of shifting food sources, supporting H3. Our results offer important insights into ecological feedback mechanisms driving individual performances within a population undergoing demographic and ecosystem-level changes. However, synergistic effects of continued climate change and increased human impacts could lead to more extreme changes in food availability and affect observed population resilience mechanisms. Our findings underscore the importance of long-term studies in protected areas when investigating complex ecological relationships in an increasingly anthropogenic world.