Influenza and pneumonia mortality in 66 large cities in the United States in years surrounding the 1918 pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman ρ = 0.64–0.72; P<0.001). By contrast, there was a weak correlation between pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza mortality rates. Pneumonia mortality rates partially explained influenza mortality rates in 1918 (ρ = 0.34, P = 0.005) but not during any other year. Pneumonia death counts followed a linear relationship with population size in all study years, suggesting that pneumonia death rates were homogeneous across the range of population sizes studied. By contrast, influenza death counts followed a power law relationship with a scaling exponent of ∼0.81 (95%CI: 0.71, 0.91) in 1918, suggesting that smaller cities experienced worst outcomes during the pandemic. A linear relationship was observed for all other years. Our study suggests that mortality associated with the 1918–20 influenza pandemic was in part predetermined by pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates in 66 large US cities, perhaps through the impact of the physical and social structure of each city. Smaller cities suffered a disproportionately high per capita influenza mortality burden than larger ones in 1918, while city size did not affect pneumonia mortality rates in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.     

Targeting mesenchymal stem cell therapy for severe pneumonia patients

Pneumonia is the inflammation of the lungs and it is the world’s leading cause of death for children under 5 years of age.The latest coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)virus is a prominent culprit to severe pneumonia.With the pandemic running rampant for the past year,more than 1590000 deaths has occurred worldwide up to December 2020 and are substantially attributable to severe pneumonia and induced cytokine storm.Effective therapeutic approaches in addition to the vaccines and drugs under development are hence greatly sought after.Therapies harnessing stem cells and their derivatives have been established by basic research for their versatile capacity to specifically inhibit inflammation due to pneumonia and prevent alveolar/pulmonary fibrosis while enhancing antibacterial/antiviral immunity,thus significantly alleviating the severe clinical conditions of pneumonia.In recent clinical trials,mesenchymal stem cells have shown effectiveness in reducing COVID-19-associated pneumonia morbidity and mortality;positioning these cells as worthy candidates for combating one of the greatest challenges of our time and shedding light on their prospects as a nextgeneration therapy to counter future challenges.     

Secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis versus cytokine release syndrome in severe COVID-19 patients

COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 infection can lead to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome/pneumonia with features of cytokine storm reminiscent of secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), which can be diagnosed by the calculated HScore. Recent reports have suggested favorable responses to the interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, anakinra in patients with COVID-19 associated secondary HLH. In our single institution study, we compared 14 COVID-19 cytokine storm patients with 10 secondary HLH patients seen immediately prior to the pandemic (non-COVID-19), to determine whether diagnostic features of secondary HLH were typically seen in COVID-19 patients presenting with cytokine storm. Although most of our COVID-19 patients did not fulfill diagnostic criteria for HLH, we hypothesize that identification of HLH may relate to the severity or timing of cytokine release. Based on our observations, we would suggest distinguishing between cytokine release syndrome and secondary HLH, reserving the latter term for cases fulfilling diagnostic criteria.Impact statementSevere COVID-19 associated pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome has recently been described with life-threatening features of cytokine storm and loosely referred to as hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) or macrophage activation syndrome (MAS). Although a recent report indicated favorable responses to the interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, anakinra in eight patients with COVID-19 secondary HLH diagnosed using the HScore calculation, others have suggested that the diagnosis of secondary HLH is uncommon and that the use of the HScore has limited value in guiding immunomodulatory therapy for COVID-19. Here, we provide additional perspective on this important controversy based upon comparisons between 14 COVID-19 cytokine storm patients and 10 secondary HLH patients seen immediately prior to the pandemic. We hypothesize that identification of HLH may relate to the severity or timing of cytokine release and suggest distinguishing between cytokine release syndrome and secondary HLH, reserving the latter term for cases fulfilling diagnostic criteria.     

SARS-CoV-2 and Aspergillus section Fumigati coinfection in an immunocompetent patient treated with corticosteroids

BackgroundPatients with severe viral pneumonia are likely to receive high-dose immunomodulatory drugs to prevent clinical worsening. Aspergillus species have been described as frequent secondary pneumonia agents in severely ill influenza patients receiving steroids. COVID-19 patients admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) are receiving steroids as part of their treatment and they share clinical characteristics with other patients with severe viral pneumonias. COVID-19 patients receiving steroids should be considered a putative risk group of invasive aspergillosis.Case reportWe are reporting a SARS-CoV-2/Aspergillus section Fumigati coinfection in an elderly intubated patient with a history of pulmonary embolism treated with corticosteroids. The diagnosis was made following the ad hoc definitions described for patients admitted to ICU with severe influenza, including clinical criteria (fever for 3 days refractory to the appropriate antibiotic therapy, dyspnea, pleural friction rub, worsening of respiratory status despite antibiotic therapy and need of ventilator support), a radiological criterion (pulmonary infiltrate) and a mycological criterion (several positive galactomannan tests on serum with ratio ≥0.5). In addition, Aspergillus section Fumigati DNA was found in serum and blood samples. These tests were positive 4 weeks after the patient was admitted to the ICU. The patient received voriconazole and after two month in ICU his respiratory status improved; he was discharged after 6 weeks of antifungal treatment.ConclusionsSeverely ill COVID-19 patients would be considered a new aspergillosis risk group. Galactomannan and Aspergillus DNA detection would be useful methods for Aspergillus infection diagnosis as they allow avoiding the biosafety issues related to these patients.     

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2: Manifestations of Disease and Approaches to Treatment and Prevention in Humans

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was caused by a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This virus has challenged civilization and modern science in ways that few infectious diseases and natural disasters have previously, causing globally significant human morbidity and mortality and triggering economic downturns across financial markets that will be dealt with for generations. Despite this, the pandemic has also brought an opportunity for humanity to come together and participate in a shared scientific investigation. Clinically, SARS-CoV-2 is associated with lower mortality rates than other recently emerged coronaviruses, such as SARS-CoV and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). However, SARS-CoV-2 exhibits efficient human-to-human spread, with transmission often occurring before symptom recognition; this feature averts containment strategies that had worked previously for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Severe COVID-19 disease is characterized by dysregulated inflammatory responses associated with pulmonary congestion and intravascular coagulopathy leading to pneumonia, vascular insults, and multiorgan disease. Approaches to treatment have combined supportive care with antivirals, such as remdesivir, with immunomodulatory medications, including corticosteroids and cytokine-blocking antibody therapies; these treatments have advanced rapidly through clinical trials. Innovative approaches to vaccine development have facilitated rapid advances in design, testing, and distribution. Much remains to be learned about SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, and further biomedical research is necessary, including comparative medicine studies in animal models. This overview of COVID-19 in humans will highlight important aspects of disease, relevant pathophysiology, underlying immunology, and therapeutics that have been developed to date.

In December 2019, a cluster of cases of pneumonia without a clear etiology occurred in Wuhan, China. With remarkable speed and efficiency, the etiology of this illness was soon identified as a novel coronavirus; the complete viral genome was sequenced and published on January 10, 2020.¹⁸² These events introduced the world to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The disease, now known to be caused by a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has developed into the most significant pandemic of recent times. In less than a year since the virus was first recognized, multiple candidate vaccines were developed worldwide, and some of them rapidly progressed to clinical trials and widespread administration. As the pandemic continues, a number of sequence variants of the virus have emerged around the world. This continued viral evolution highlights the need for continued biomedical research to facilitate understanding of the pathogenesis of COVID-19, seeking innovative therapeutic and preventative strategies for the current and possibly future pandemics. This article will review aspects of SARS-CoV-2 infection of humans and COVID-19, focusing on important aspects of clinical disease, pathophysiology, immunology, and the development of therapeutic and preventative measures to provide context for discussion of the animal models used to study SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.     

Expression of the 1918 influenza A virus PB1-F2 enhances the pathogenesis of viral and secondary bacterial pneumonia

Secondary bacterial pneumonia frequently claimed the lives of victims during the devastating 1918 influenza A virus pandemic. Little is known about the viral factors contributing to the lethality of the 1918 pandemic. Here we show that expression of the viral accessory protein PB1-F2 enhances inflammation during primary viral infection of mice and increases both the frequency and severity of secondary bacterial pneumonia. The priming effect of PB1-F2 on bacterial pneumonia could be recapitulated in mice by intranasal delivery of a synthetic peptide derived from the C-terminal portion of the PB1-F2. Relative to its isogenic parent, an influenza virus engineered to express a PB1-F2 with coding changes matching the 1918 pandemic strain was more virulent in mice, induced more pulmonary immunopathology, and led to more severe secondary bacterial pneumonia. These findings help explain both the unparalleled virulence of the 1918 strain and the high incidence of fatal pneumonia during the pandemic.     

Artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of COVID-19: challenges and perspectives

Artificial intelligence (AI) is being used to aid in various aspects of the COVID-19 crisis, including epidemiology, molecular research and drug development, medical diagnosis and treatment, and socioeconomics. The association of AI and COVID-19 can accelerate to rapidly diagnose positive patients. To learn the dynamics of a pandemic with relevance to AI, we search the literature using the different academic databases (PubMed, PubMed Central, Scopus, Google Scholar) and preprint servers (bioRxiv, medRxiv, arXiv). In the present review, we address the clinical applications of machine learning and deep learning, including clinical characteristics, electronic medical records, medical images (CT, X-ray, ultrasound images, etc.) in the COVID-19 diagnosis. The current challenges and future perspectives provided in this review can be used to direct an ideal deployment of AI technology in a pandemic.     

S100A8/A9 in COVID-19 pathogenesis: Impact on clinical outcomes

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a broad range of clinical manifestations, highlighting the need for specific diagnostic tools to predict disease severity and improve patient prognosis. Recently, calprotectin (S100A8/A9) has been proposed as a potential biomarker for COVID-19, as elevated serum S100A8/A9 levels are associated with critical COVID-19 cases and can distinguish between mild and severe disease states. S100A8/A9 is an alarmin that mediates host proinflammatory responses during infection and it has been postulated that S100A8/A9 modulates the cytokine storm; the hallmark of fatal COVID-19 cases. However, it has yet to be determined if S100A8/A9 is a bona-fide biomarker for COVID-19. S100A8/A9 is widely implicated in a variety of inflammatory conditions, such as cystic fibrosis (CF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), as well as pulmonary infectious diseases, including tuberculosis and influenza. Therefore, understanding how S100A8/A9 levels correlate with immune responses during inflammatory diseases is necessary to evaluate its candidacy as a potential COVID-19 biomarker. This review will outline the protective and detrimental roles of S100A8/A9 during infection, summarize the recent findings detailing the contributions of S100A8/A9 to COVID-19 pathogenesis, and highlight its potential as diagnostic biomarker and a therapeutic target for pulmonary infectious diseases, including COVID-19.     

Cytokine and chemokine responses in pediatric patients with severe pneumonia associated with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus

Severe pneumonia and leukocytosis are characteristic, frequently observed, clinical findings in pediatric patients with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus infection. The aim of this study was to elucidate the role of cytokines and chemokines in complicating pneumonia and leukocytosis in patients with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus infection. Forty‐seven patients with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus infection were enrolled in this study. Expression of interleukin (IL)‐10 (P = 0.027) and IL‐5 (P = 0.014) was significantly greater in patients with pneumonia than in those without pneumonia. Additionally, serum concentrations of interferon‐γ (P = 0.009), tumor necrosis factor‐α (P = 0.01), IL‐4 (P = 0.024), and IL‐2 (P = 0.012) were significantly lower in pneumonia patients with neutrophilic leukocytosis than in those without neutrophilic leukocytosis. Of the five serum chemokine concentrations assessed, only IL‐8 was significantly lower in pneumonia patients with neutrophilic leukocytosis than in those without leukocytosis (P = 0.001). These cytokines and chemokines may play important roles in the pathogenesis of childhood pneumonia associated with A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus infection.     

A network-informed analysis of SARS-CoV-2 and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis genes’ interactions points to Neutrophil extracellular traps as mediators of thrombosis in COVID-19

Abnormal coagulation and an increased risk of thrombosis are features of severe COVID-19, with parallels proposed with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), a life-threating condition associated with hyperinflammation. The presence of HLH was described in severely ill patients during the H1N1 influenza epidemic, presenting with pulmonary vascular thrombosis. We tested the hypothesis that genes causing primary HLH regulate pathways linking pulmonary thromboembolism to the presence of SARS-CoV-2 using novel network-informed computational algorithms. This approach led to the identification of Neutrophils Extracellular Traps (NETs) as plausible mediators of vascular thrombosis in severe COVID-19 in children and adults. Taken together, the network-informed analysis led us to propose the following model: the release of NETs in response to inflammatory signals acting in concert with SARS-CoV-2 damage the endothelium and direct platelet-activation promoting abnormal coagulation leading to serious complications of COVID-19. The underlying hypothesis is that genetic and/or environmental conditions that favor the release of NETs may predispose individuals to thrombotic complications of COVID-19 due to an increase risk of abnormal coagulation. This would be a common pathogenic mechanism in conditions including autoimmune/infectious diseases, hematologic and metabolic disorders.     

Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing,China

Previous studies have showed clinical characteristics of patients with the 2019 novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19) and the evidence of person-to-person transmission. Limited data are available for asymptomatic infections. This study aims to present the clinical characteristics of 24 cases with asymptomatic infection screened from close contacts and to show the transmission potential of asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carriers. Epidemiological investigations were conducted among all close contacts of COVID-19 patients(or suspected patients) in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China, from Jan 28 to Feb 9, 2020, both in clinic and in community. Asymptomatic carriers were laboratory-confirmed positive for the COVID-19 virus by testing the nucleic acid of the pharyngeal swab samples. Their clinical records, laboratory assessments, and chest CT scans were reviewed. As a result, none of the 24 asymptomatic cases presented any obvious symptoms while nucleic acid screening. Five cases(20.8%) developed symptoms(fever, cough, fatigue, etc.) during hospitalization. Twelve(50.0%) cases showed typical CT images of ground-glass chest and 5(20.8%) presented stripe shadowing in the lungs. The remaining 7(29.2%) cases showed normal CT image and had no symptoms during hospitalization. These 7 cases were younger(median age: 14.0 years;P=0.012) than the rest. None of the 24 cases developed severe COVID-19 pneumonia or died. The median communicable period, defined as the interval from the first day of positive nucleic acid tests to the first day of continuous negative tests, was 9.5 days(up to 21 days among the 24 asymptomatic cases). Through epidemiological investigation, we observed a typical asymptomatic transmission to the cohabiting family members, which even caused severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Overall, the asymptomatic carriers identified from close contacts were prone to be mildly ill during hospitalization. However, the communicable period could be up to three weeks and the communicated patients could develop severe illness. These results highlighted the importance of close contact tracing and longitudinally surveillance via virus nucleic acid tests. Further isolation recommendation and continuous nucleic acid tests may also be recommended to the patients discharged.     

Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 2009 Pneumonia: CURB-65 Score for Predicting Severity and Nasopharyngeal Sampling for Diagnosis Are Unreliable

Background

From the first case reports of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 it was clear that a significant proportion of infected individuals suffered a primary viral pneumonia. The objective of this study was twofold; to assess the utility of the CURB-65 community acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity index in predicting pneumonia severity and ICU admission, and to assess the relative sensitivity of nasopharyngeal versus lower respiratory tract sampling for the detection of pandemic influenza (H1N1) CAP.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of 70 patients hospitalised for pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 in an adult tertiary referral hospital. Characteristics evaluated included age, pregnancy status, sex, respiratory signs and symptoms, smoking and alcohol history, CURB-65 score, co-morbidities, disabling sequelae, length of stay and in-hospital mortality outcomes. Laboratory features evaluated included lymphocyte count, C-reactive protein (CRP), nasopharyngeal and lower respiratory tract pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 PCR results.

Results

Patients with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza CAP differed significantly from those without pneumonia regarding length of stay, need for ICU admission, CRP and the likelihood of disabling sequelae. The CURB-65 score did not predict CAP severity or the need for ICU admission (only 2/11 patients admitted to ICU had CURB-65 scores of 2 or 3). Nasopharyngeal specimens for PCR were only 62.9% sensitive in CAP patients compared to 97.8% sensitivity for lower respiratory tract specimens.

Conclusions

The CURB-65 score does not predict severe pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 CAP or need for ICU admission. Lower respiratory tract specimens should be collected when pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza CAP is suspected.     

Identifying COVID-19 by using spectral analysis of cough recordings: a distinctive classification study

Sound signals from the respiratory system are largely taken as tokens of human health. Early diagnosis of respiratory tract diseases is of great importance because, if delayed, it exerts irreversible effects on human health. The Coronavirus pandemic, which is deeply shaking the world, has revealed the importance of this diagnosis even more. During the pandemic, it has become the focus of researchers to differentiate symptoms from similar diseases such as influenza. Among these symptoms, the difference in cough sound played a distinctive role in research. Clinical data collected under the supervision of doctors in a reliable environment were used as the dataset consisting of 16 subjects suspected of COVID-19 with a specific patient demographic. Using the polymerase chain reaction test, the suspected subjects were divided into two groups as negative and positive. The negative and positive labels represent the patients with non-COVID and with a COVID-19 cough, respectively. Using the 3D plot or waterfall representation of the signal frequency spectrum, the salient features of the cough data are revealed. In this way, COVID-19 can be differentiated from other coughs by applying effective feature extraction and classification techniques. Power spectral density based on short-time Fourier transform and mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC) were chosen as the efficient feature extraction method. From among the classification techniques, the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm was applied to the processed signals in order to identify and classify COVID-19 cough. In terms of results evaluation, the cough of subjects with COVID-19 was detected with 95.86% classification accuracy thanks to the radial basis function (RBF) kernel function of SVM and the MFCC method. The diagnosis of COVID-19 coughs was performed with 98.6% and 91.7% sensitivity and specificity, respectively.     

Arbidol/IFN-α2b therapy for patients with corona virus disease 2019: a retrospective multicenter cohort study

The spread of COVID-19 is accelerating. At present, there is no specific antiviral drugs for COVID-19 outbreak. This is a multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection pneumonia from 3 hospitals in Hubei and Guangdong province, 141 adults (aged ≥18 years) without ventilation were included. Combined group patients were given Arbidol and IFN-α2b, monotherapy group patients inhaled IFN-α2b for 10–14 days. Of 141 COVID-19 patients, baseline clinical and laboratory characteristics were similar between combined group and monotherapy group, that 30% of the patients leucocytes counts were below the normal range and 36.4% of the patients experienced lymphocytopenia. The duration of viral RNA of respiratory tract in the monotherapy group was not longer than that in the combined therapy group. There was no significant differences between two groups. The absorption of pneumonia in the combined group was faster than that in the monotherapy group. We inferred that Arbidol/IFN - 2 b therapy can be used as an effective method to improve the COVID-19 pneumonia of mild patients, although it helpless with accelerating the virus clearance. These results should be verified in a larger prospective randomized environment.     

The evolving role of preprints in the dissemination of COVID-19 research and their impact on the science communication landscape

The world continues to face a life-threatening viral pandemic. The virus underlying the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused over 98 million confirmed cases and 2.2 million deaths since January 2020. Although the most recent respiratory viral pandemic swept the globe only a decade ago, the way science operates and responds to current events has experienced a cultural shift in the interim. The scientific community has responded rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, releasing over 125,000 COVID-19–related scientific articles within 10 months of the first confirmed case, of which more than 30,000 were hosted by preprint servers. We focused our analysis on bioRxiv and medRxiv, 2 growing preprint servers for biomedical research, investigating the attributes of COVID-19 preprints, their access and usage rates, as well as characteristics of their propagation on online platforms. Our data provide evidence for increased scientific and public engagement with preprints related to COVID-19 (COVID-19 preprints are accessed more, cited more, and shared more on various online platforms than non-COVID-19 preprints), as well as changes in the use of preprints by journalists and policymakers. We also find evidence for changes in preprinting and publishing behaviour: COVID-19 preprints are shorter and reviewed faster. Our results highlight the unprecedented role of preprints and preprint servers in the dissemination of COVID-19 science and the impact of the pandemic on the scientific communication landscape.

An analysis of bioRxiv and medRxiv during the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals that the pandemic has resulted in a cultural shift in the use of preprints for disseminating pandemic-related science.     

Comparative review of respiratory diseases caused by coronaviruses and influenza A viruses during epidemic season

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to sweep the world, causing infection of millions and death of hundreds of thousands. The respiratory disease that it caused, COVID-19 (stands for coronavirus disease in 2019), has similar clinical symptoms with other two CoV diseases, severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome (SARS and MERS), of which causative viruses are SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, respectively. These three CoVs resulting diseases also share many clinical symptoms with other respiratory diseases caused by influenza A viruses (IAVs). Since both CoVs and IAVs are general pathogens responsible for seasonal cold, in the next few months, during the changing of seasons, clinicians and public heath may have to distinguish COVID-19 pneumonia from other kinds of viral pneumonia. This is a discussion and comparison of the virus structures, transmission characteristics, clinical symptoms, diagnosis, pathological changes, treatment and prevention of the two kinds of viruses, CoVs and IAVs. It hopes to provide information for practitioners in the medical field during the epidemic season.