The Challenges of Hazard Identification and Classification of Insoluble Metals and Metal Substances for the Aquatic Environment

The OECD is currently harmonizing procedures for aquatic hazard identification of substances. Such a system already exists in Europe where it is recognized that special consideration must be given to sparingly soluble metals and metal compounds (SSMMCs) because standard hazard testing procedures designed for organic chemicals do not accommodate the characteristics of SSMMCs. Current aquatic hazard identification procedures are based on persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (PBT) measurements. Persistence measurements typically used for organic substances (biodegradation) do not apply to metals. Alternative measurements such as complexation and precipitation are more appropriate. Metal bioaccumulation is important in terms of nutritional sufficiency and potential food chain transfer and toxicity. Unlike organic substances, metal bioaccumulation potential cannot be estimated using log octanol-water partition coefficients. Further, bioaccumulation and bioconcentration factors are often inversely related to exposure concentration for most metals and organisms, and hence are not reliable predictors of chronic toxicity or food chain accumulation. Metal toxicity is due predominately to the free metal ion in solution. In order to assess the toxicity of SSMMCs, the rate and extent of transformation to a soluble form must be measured.     

Exposure and Multiple Lines of Evidence Assessment of Risk for PCBs Found in the Diets of Passerine Birds at the Kalamazoo River Superfund Site,Michigan

Dietary exposures of passerine birds at the Kalamazoo River, Michigan, were examined due to the presence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the terrestrial and aquatic food webs. Average potential daily doses in diets were 6- to 29-fold and 16- to 35-fold greater at a contaminated location than at a reference location for PCB exposures quantified as total PCBs and 2,3,7,8–tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (TEQs), respectively. Birds with diets comprised of primarily aquatic insects had greater dietary exposure than birds with diets of primarily terrestrial insects. Risk associated with dietary exposure varied with the selection of the threshold for effects including hazard quotients, which exceeded 1 in instances where the most conservative toxicity reference values were utilized. Risk based on concentrations of PCBs in the tissues indicated little risk to avian species, and co-located studies evaluating reproductive health did not suggest that observed incidences of diminished reproductive success were related to PCB exposure. Measures of risk based on comparison to toxicity reference values (TRVs) were consistent with direct measures of ecologically relevant endpoints of reproductive fitness, but uncertainty exists in the selection of threshold values for effects in these species especially based on TEQs. This is largely due to the absence of species-specific, dose-response relationships. Therefore, the best estimate of risk is through the application of multiple lines of evidence.     

Scavenging Opportunities Modulate Escape Responses over a Small Geographic Scale

Many species that inhabit anthropogenically altered landscapes also opportunistically use human food refuse. Gulls readily exploit anthropogenic food sources (e.g. rubbish dumps and other places of human refuse) and often ‘steal’ food from people eating out of doors. Their behaviour suggests that gulls perceive little risk around people and so we examined whether opportunity costs, that is access to anthropogenic food sources, influence risk monitoring and escape responses in Silver Gulls (Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae) around outdoor restaurants (‘food’ sites), where the gulls would scavenge food from people. We recorded alert distance (AD) and flight initiation distance (FID) and compared them with nearby sites where the same cohort of gulls was not interacting with people (‘no‐food’ sites). We used two approach speeds (with the prediction that gulls would take greater efforts to avoid a potential predation threat when approached at speed). Gulls foraging at food sites had lower AD and FID than those approached at no‐food sites. They were not simply ignoring the person, as they demonstrated longer AD when approached at speed but no difference in FID and therefore appeared to be responding to a small geographic scale ‘behavioural footprint’ of anthropogenic influences. Our study also challenges universality of the assumption that starting distance is necessarily correlated with FID, especially in sites where there are many people that animals are constantly monitoring – to determine the risk they represent as well as the likelihood of potential food opportunities.     

Peak-to-peak dynamics in food chain models

We show in this paper that the chaotic regimes of many food chain models often enjoy a very peculiar property, known as peak-to-peak dynamics. This means that the maximum (peak) density of the populations of any trophic level can be easily forecasted provided the last two peaks of the same population are known. Moreover, extensive simulation shows that only the last peak is needed if the forecast concerns the population at the top of the food chain and that peaks variability often increases from bottom to top. All these findings bring naturally to the conclusion that top populations should be sampled in order to have higher chances to detect peak-to-peak dynamics. The analysis is carried out by studying ditrophic food chain models with seasonally varying parameters, tritrophic food chain models with constant parameters, and more complex food chain and food web models.     

Marginal hazard ratio estimates in joint frailty models for heart failure trials

This work is motivated by clinical trials in chronic heart failure disease, where treatment has effects both on morbidity (assessed as recurrent non‐fatal hospitalisations) and on mortality (assessed as cardiovascular death, CV death). Recently, a joint frailty proportional hazards model has been proposed for these kind of efficacy outcomes to account for a potential association between the risk rates for hospital admissions and CV death. However, more often clinical trial results are presented by treatment effect estimates that have been derived from marginal proportional hazards models, that is, a Cox model for mortality and an Andersen–Gill model for recurrent hospitalisations. We show how these marginal hazard ratios and their estimates depend on the association between the risk processes, when these are actually linked by shared or dependent frailty terms. First we derive the marginal hazard ratios as a function of time. Then, applying least false parameter theory, we show that the marginal hazard ratio estimate for the hospitalisation rate depends on study duration and on parameters of the underlying joint frailty model. In particular, we identify parameters, for example the treatment effect on mortality, that determine if the marginal hazard ratio estimate for hospitalisations is smaller, equal or larger than the conditional one. How this affects rejection probabilities is further investigated in simulation studies. Our findings can be used to interpret marginal hazard ratio estimates in heart failure trials and are illustrated by the results of the CHARM‐Preserved trial (where CHARM is the ‘Candesartan in Heart failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and morbidity’ programme).     

Eating nanomaterials: cruelty-free and safe? the EFSA guidance on risk assessment of nanomaterials in food and feed

Nanomaterials are increasingly being added to food handling and packaging materials, or directly, to human food and animal feed. To ensure the safety of such engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), in May 2011, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) published a guidance document on Risk assessment of the application of nanoscience and nanotechnologies in the food and feed chain. It states that risk assessment should be performed by following a step-wise procedure. Whenever human or animal exposure to nanomaterials is expected, the general hazard characterisation scheme requests information from in vitro genotoxicity, toxicokinetic and repeated dose 90-day oral toxicity studies in rodents. Numerous prevailing uncertainties with regard to nanomaterial characterisation and their hazard and risk assessment are addressed in the guidance document. This article discusses the impact of these knowledge gaps on meeting the goal of ensuring human safety. The EFSA's guidance on the risk assessment of ENMs in food and animal feed is taken as an example for discussion, from the point of view of animal welfare, on what level of uncertainty should be considered acceptable for human safety assessment of products with non-medical applications, and whether animal testing should be considered ethically acceptable for such products.     

Daily Patterns of Optimal Producer and Scrounger Use under Predation Hazard: A State-Dependent Dynamic Game Analysis

Feeding in groups often gives rise to joining: feeding from other's discoveries. The joining decision has been modeled as a producer-scrounger game where the producer strategy consists of searching for one's food and the scrounger strategy consists of searching for food discovered by others. Previous models revealed that the evolutionarily stable proportion of scrounging mostly depends on the fraction of each food patch available only to its producer. These early models are static and state independent and are therefore unable to explore whether the time of day, the animal's state, and the degree of predation hazard influence an individual's decision of whether to use the producer or scrounger strategy. To investigate these issues, we developed a state-dependent dynamic producer-scrounger game model. The model predicts that, early in the day, low reserves promote a preference for the scrounger strategy, while the same condition late in the day favors the use of the producer strategy. Under rich and clumped food, the availability of scrounging can improve the daily survival of any average group member. The model suggests only weak effects of predation hazard on the use of scrounging. Future developments should consider the effects of dominance asymmetries and allowing foragers a choice between foraging alone or in a group harboring an evolutionarily stable frequency of scrounger.     

Using habitat selection theories to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of migratory birds during stopover – a case study of pink‐footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

Understanding how animals select for habitat and foraging resources therein is a crucial component of basic and applied ecology. The selection process is typically influenced by a variety of environmental conditions including the spatial and temporal variation in the quantity and quality of food resources, predation or disturbance risks, and inter‐ and intraspecific competition. Indeed, some of the most commonly employed ecological theories used to describe how animals choose foraging sites are: nutrient intake maximisation, density‐dependent habitat selection, central‐place foraging, and predation risk effects. Even though these theories are not mutually exclusive, rarely are multiple theoretical models considered concomitantly to assess which theory, or combination thereof, best predicts observed changes in habitat selection over space and time. Here, we tested which of the above theories best‐predicted habitat selection of Svalbard‐breeding pink‐footed geese at their main spring migration stopover site in mid‐Norway by computing a series of resource selection functions (RSFs) and their predictive ability (k‐fold cross validation scores). At this stopover site geese fuel intensively as a preparation for breeding and further migration. We found that the predation risk model and a combination of the density‐dependent and central‐place foraging models best‐predicted habitat selection during stopover as geese selected for larger fields where predation risk is typically lower and selection for foraging sites changed as a function of both distance to the roost site (i.e. central‐place) and changes in local density. In contrast to many other studies, the nutritional value of the available food resources did not appear to be a major limiting factor as geese used different food resources proportional to their availability. Our study shows that in an agricultural landscape where nutritional value of food resources is homogeneously high and resource availability changes rapidly; foraging behaviour of geese is largely a tradeoff between fast refuelling and disturbance/predator avoidance.     

Field biology, food web models, and management: challenges of context and scale

Managers are increasingly aware of the need for science to inform the stewardship of natural lands and resources. If ecologists are to address this need, we must increase the scope of our inferences, while maintaining sufficient resolution and realism to predict trajectories of specific populations or ecosystem variables. Food chain and simple food web models, used either as core or component hypotheses, can help us to meet this challenge. The simple mass balance logic of dynamic food chain or food web models can organize our thinking about a range of applied problems, such as evaluating controls over populations of concern, or of biotic assemblages that affect important ecosystem properties. In other applications, a food chain or web may be incorporated as one element in models of regional mass balances affecting resources or environments. Specific predictions of food web models will often fail because of inadequate resolution (e.g., of functionally significant differences among taxa within "trophic levels") or insufficient scope (e.g., of spatio-temporal variation over scales relevant to management). Increasing use of tracers to delimit spatial scales of food web interactions will reduce, but not eliminate, this limitation. If used with skepticism and vigilance to local natural history, however, food chain or simple food web models can promote the iterative feedback between prediction, falsification by observation, and new prediction central to hypothetico-deductive science and adaptive management. Experience argues that this stepwise path is the fastest towards better understanding and control of our impacts on nature.     

The role of changing childhood diets in the prehistoric evolution of food production: An isotopic assessment

Earlier weaning has often been suggested as a cause for population growth after the evolution of food production. However, evidence for weaning-time reduction is largely circumstantial. Collagen stable nitrogen- and carbon-isotope ratios from juvenile and adult burials from four sites in eastern North America were measured to estimate weaning onsets and durations before and after the appearance of intensive food production. Two preagricultural Late Archaic sites (Indian Knoll and Carlston Annis) are compared with two highly agricultural Middle Mississippian sites (Angel and Tinsley Hill). Isotopic data and paleodemographic measures of birth rates provide no evidence for changes in weaning behavior or fertility with the development of food production in the prehistoric Lower Ohio Valley. Birth rates and weaning behavior appear to have been roughly the same at all four sites. These results indicate that models attributing population growth after the appearance of food production to earlier weaning are not universally applicable.     

Stopping vs. staging: the difference between a hop and a jump

Places where migrant birds stop to rest, drink, and eat at are often described as either stopover or staging sites. Attempts have been made to differentiate between these two terms but they are frequently used interchangeably. Some authors have equated staging sites with sites that attract large concentrations (many thousands) of birds, a definition that others have expanded to include long stopover durations and significant rates of refueling on predictable, abundant prey. It has also been suggested that birds using staging sites are those that employ a jumping strategy during migration. I argue that while all sites where birds rest and feed during migration are stopover sites, further classification of stopover sites is of ecological and conservation value. I propose that sites with abundant, predictable food resources where birds prepare for an energetic challenge (usually a long flight over a barrier such as an ocean or a desert) requiring substantial fuel stores and physiological changes without which significant fitness costs are incurred are most appropriately described as staging sites.     

New Elements To Consider When Modeling the Hazards Associated with Botulinum Neurotoxin in Food

Botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs) produced by the anaerobic bacterium Clostridium botulinum are the most potent biological substances known to mankind. BoNTs are the agents responsible for botulism, a rare condition affecting the neuromuscular junction and causing a spectrum of diseases ranging from mild cranial nerve palsies to acute respiratory failure and death. BoNTs are a potential biowarfare threat and a public health hazard, since outbreaks of foodborne botulism are caused by the ingestion of preformed BoNTs in food. Currently, mathematical models relating to the hazards associated with C. botulinum, which are largely empirical, make major contributions to botulinum risk assessment. Evaluated using statistical techniques, these models simulate the response of the bacterium to environmental conditions. Though empirical models have been successfully incorporated into risk assessments to support food safety decision making, this process includes significant uncertainties so that relevant decision making is frequently conservative and inflexible. Progression involves encoding into the models cellular processes at a molecular level, especially the details of the genetic and molecular machinery. This addition drives the connection between biological mechanisms and botulism risk assessment and hazard management strategies. This review brings together elements currently described in the literature that will be useful in building quantitative models of C. botulinum neurotoxin production. Subsequently, it outlines how the established form of modeling could be extended to include these new elements. Ultimately, this can offer further contributions to risk assessments to support food safety decision making.     

Review of chemical,physical, and toxicologic properties of components of total petroleum hydrocarbons

Risk is a function of exposure and hazard, and both aspects must be incorporated into sound risk assessment efforts. However, risk assessment for sites contaminated with petroleum products is complicated by a general lack of information relevant to exposure to and toxicity of petroleum mixtures (especially total petroleum hydrocarbons, or TPH). Specifically, there is often inadequate information about the components of the TPH present at the site and the physical and chemical properties and toxicities of these components. Such information is crucial to developing a strong conceptual model of exposure to and risk from petroleum hydrocarbons at contaminated sites. This article presents information that can be incorporated into risk assessments for sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons.     

Multi-scale habitat models for reintroduced bird populations: a case study of South Island saddlebacks on Motuara Island

Understanding resource selection by animals is important when considering habitat suitability at proposed release sites within threatened species recovery programmes. Multi-scale investigatory approaches are increasingly encouraged, as the patchy distribution of suitable habitats in fragmented landscapes often determines species presence and survival. Habitat models applied to a threatened New Zealand forest passerine, the South Island saddleback (Philesturnus carunculatus carunculatus), reintroduced to Ulva Island (Stewart Island) found that at landscape scale breeding pairs? preferences for sites near the coast were driven by micro-scale vegetation structure. We tested these results by examining models of breeding site selection by a reintroduced saddleback population on Motuara Island (Marlborough Sounds) at two scales: (1) micro-scale, for habitat characteristics that may drive breeding site selection, and (2) landscape scale, for variations in micro-scale habitat characteristics that may influence site colonisation in breeding pairs. Results indicated that birds on Motuara Island responded similarly to those on Ulva Island, i.e. birds primarily settled at the margins of coastal scrub and forest and later cohorts moved into larger stands of coastal forest where they established breeding territories. Plant species composition was also important in providing breeding saddleback pairs with adequate food supply and nesting support. However, Motuara Island birds differed in their partitioning of habitat use: preferred habitats were used for nesting while birds were foraging outside territorial boundaries or in shared sites. These differences may be explained because Motuara has a more homogeneous distribution of microscale habitats throughout the landscape and a highly bird-populated environment. These results show that resource distribution and abundance across the landscape needs to be accounted for in the modelling of density?bird?habitat relationships. In the search for future release sites, food (invertebrates and fruiting tree species) should be abundant close to available nesting sites, or evenly spread and available throughout the landscape.     

Mycotoxin contamination of food in Europe: Early detection and prevention strategies

This paper reviews the early detection and prevention strategies which have been employed in Europe for the control of mycotoxin contamination of food in the context of a hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) framework. The critical control points (CCPs) in the whole food chain where mycotoxins such as trichothecenes and ochratoxins are important have been identified. Ecological studies on the effect of environmental factors which are marginal for growth and mycotoxin production have been identified for Fusarium culmorum and F. graminearum (deoxynivlenol production), and for Penicillium verrucosum and Aspergillus ochraceus (ochratoxin production) in relation to cereal production and for A. carbonarius in relation to grapes and wine production (ochratoxin formation). To minimise the entry of these mycotoxins into the food chain, effective and rapid diagnostic tools are required to monitor the CCPs effectively. To this end the potential use of molecular imprinted polymers, lateral flow devices and molecular-based techniques for the rapid detection and quantification of the mycotoxigenic moulds or their toxins have also been developed.     

Intraguild predation,invertebrate predators,and trophic cascades in lake food webs

The top-down and bottom-up properties of model food webs that include intraguild predation and self-limiting factors such as cannibalism are investigated. Intraguild predation can dampen or even reverse the top-down effects predicted by food chain theory. The degree of self-limitation among the intraguild prey is a key factor in determining the direction and strength of the top-down response. Intraguild predation and self-limiting factors can also substantially alter the bottom-up effects of enrichment. These results can help explain the disparate results of trophic cascade experiments in lakes, where cascades are usually seen when large Daphnia are the primary herbivores, but not when smaller-bodied herbivores are dominant. Top-down manipulations should cascade at least modestly to phytoplankton in those lakes whose food web can be reasonably approximated by a chain (typically, those where Daphnia is the dominant herbivore), as predicted by food chain theory. On the other hand, smaller-bodied zooplankton are often preyed upon heavily by invertebrate predators as well as by planktivorous fish, thereby introducing elements of intraguild predation into these food webs. In this case, conventional food chain theory is likely to give incorrect predictions. Very large cascade effects may be due primarily to regime shifts between intraguild predation-dominated food webs and those that more resemble food chains, rather than due to the simple food chain cascade usually considered.     

The challenges facing scientists in the development of foods in Europe using biotechnology

The public's major concern over the introduction of genetic engineering into the food chain focuses on potential health risks. Proving that a food is safe is an impossible goal since there will always be a risk associated with eating food. Diets that are natural in every sense of the word pose risks but the general public believe that they are inherently less risky. The differences in risk between foods that are natural, as opposed to foods that are produced by the application of technology, are likely to be minute. Nor does it follow that they all lie in favour of `natural' food. The fact is that all foods pose a balance of risks and benefits but the scientific method has so far not been applied to its measurement. Only risk is emphasised and estimated, albeit with many conservative assumptions, often resulting in an emphasis on minute risk. Conventional plant products are not subject to the rigorous risk evaluations that apply to genetically modified plants. So the outcome is that the public only receive part of the information and this is the emphasis on risk of the `artificial' food. The only future for foods produced by biotechnology in Europe is if the public are persuaded of the real health benefits that will result from its application. Given the present state of nutritional knowledge, and the limited resources that are given to it, there are only a few clear examples of where nutritional improvement of plant food would bring really significant benefits. The paper highlights these with examples and indicates where further nutritional research will be required before other targets for improvement can be realised.     

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment: principles applied to determining the comparative risk of salmonellosis from chicken products

Since causal links have been established between food-borne illness and particular microorganisms, it has been possible to assess the public health risks of their presence in foods and propose measures to ensure the safety of customers. Effective control measures for food safety have been based on knowledge of the resistance of pathogenic microorganisms to the treatments used for preservation (e.g. acidification or reduced water activity) or decontamination (e.g. pasteurisation or sterilisation). Using this principle, food safety has been managed informally and successfully within the food industry for many years. Recently, formal risk assessment schemes, for example from Codex Alimentarius, have developed and placed the elements of decision-making on suitable control measures into a formal framework with clearly identifiable stages. The output of the four stages of a formal risk assessment (hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation) provides the basis for decisions on actions needed to control the identified hazard. There are many difficulties in ensuring that risk assessments are realistic and accessible to potential users, in many cases their value is limited by the data available. The study reported here on control of Salmonella in poultry products illustrates that it is possible to produce a comparative risk assessment based on published data. This study is not a full quantitative risk assessment, but provide useful pointers for a risk manager. Differences are discussed between the exposure assessment data needed to propose controls for infectious or toxigenic pathogens. For infectious pathogens, the presence of viable and infectious microorganisms is itself the hazard, but for toxigenic microorganisms, absence or destruction of viable cells at ingestion does not in itself ensure the absence of toxin. For toxin hazards, exposure assessment needs to consider previous conditions that may have led to toxin formation and persistence, rather than just the level of microbes at ingestion.     

Bio-markers: traceability in food safety issues

Research and practice are focusing on development, validation and harmonization of technologies and methodologies to ensure complete traceability process throughout the food chain. The main goals are: scale-up, implementation and validation of methods in whole food chains, assurance of authenticity, validity of labelling and application of HACCP (hazard analysis and critical control point) to the entire food chain. The current review is to sum the scientific and technological basis for ensuring complete traceability. Tracing and tracking (traceability) of foods are complex processes due to the (bio)markers, technical solutions and different circumstances in different technologies which produces various foods (processed, semi-processed, or raw). Since the food is produced for human or animal consumption we need suitable markers to be stable and traceable all along the production chain. Specific biomarkers can have a function in technology and in nutrition. Such approach would make this development faster and more comprehensive and would make possible that food effect could be monitored with same set of biomarkers in consumer. This would help to develop and implement food safety standards that would be based on real physiological function of particular food component.