滨海城市土地利用格局演变及对生态系统服务价值的影响

土地利用变化改变土地原有的生态系统服务价值(ESV)和功能,关系地区可持续发展。选择沿海城市厦门市为研究区,利用1989、2000、2010年3期土地利用数据和相关文献数据,采用土地利用动态度、转移矩阵方法,ESV等指标计算分析了厦门市土地利用的变化及其对ESV的影响。研究结果表明:1989—2010年厦门市土地利用综合动态度为同时期全国水平的5倍多。该时期厦门市和全国建设用地动态度均高于其他地类。其中2000—2010年间,厦门市土地利用综合动态度是1989—2010年间近5倍(458.94%);在厦门市与各沿海地区对比中发现,1989—2010年整个沿海地区建设用地的动态度都高于其他各个单一地类。各沿海地区建设用地动态度大小排序为浙江沿海厦门福建沿海江苏沿海,厦门市排序靠前。空间特征上,厦门市建设用地的增加主要是由滨海带滩涂的填埋和耕地的占用,处于北部的林地基本稳定。研究期1989—2010年间,厦门市ESV总量一直处于下降趋势,其中2000—2010年ESV总减少量(1.2亿元)是1989—2000年总减少量(1000万元)的十余倍(1382.57%)。研究区由于水域和耕地的大面积减少,导致水源涵养、废物处理等生态系统服务功能趋于弱化,最终致使各类ESV成分在1989—2010年间整体上均处于下降趋势。下降幅度最大的仍然是水文调节和废物处理,食物和原材料生产变化幅度最小。1989—2000阶段中保持土壤ESV变化的贡献最大,2000—2010阶段中水文调节ESV变化的贡献最大。2010年厦门市单位面积ESV在东部沿海地区中处于较低水平。反观厦门市2000—2010年远高于全国水平的土地利用动态度,表明厦门市在未来的城市建设中应当划出生态红线,加强对具有关键生态功能的生态用地保护,特别是水域和北部的林地。     

Post‐Soviet farmland abandonment,forest recovery,and carbon sequestration in western Ukraine

Land use is a critical factor in the global carbon cycle, but land‐use effects on carbon fluxes are poorly understood in many regions. One such region is Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, where land‐use intensity decreased substantially after the collapse of socialism, and farmland abandonment and forest expansion have been widespread. Our goal was to examine how land‐use trends affected net carbon fluxes in western Ukraine (57 000 km²) and to assess the region's future carbon sequestration potential. Using satellite‐based forest disturbance and farmland abandonment rates from 1988 to 2007, historic forest resource statistics, and a carbon bookkeeping model, we reconstructed carbon fluxes from land use in the 20th century and assessed potential future carbon fluxes until 2100 for a range of forest expansion and logging scenarios. Our results suggested that the low‐point in forest cover occurred in the 1920s. Forest expansion between 1930 and 1970 turned the region from a carbon source to a sink, despite intensive logging during socialism. The collapse of the Soviet Union created a vast, but currently largely untapped carbon sequestration potential (up to～150 Tg C in our study region). Future forest expansion will likely maintain or even increase the region's current sink strength of 1.48 Tg C yr^?1. This may offer substantial opportunities for offsetting industrial carbon emissions and for rural development in regions with otherwise diminishing income opportunities. Throughout Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, millions of hectares of farmland were abandoned after the collapse of socialism; thus similar reforestation opportunities may exist in other parts of this region.     

The impact of forest encroachment after agricultural land abandonment on passerine bird communities: The case of Greece

Agricultural land abandonment is one of the main drivers of land use change, leading to various responses of farmland ecological communities. In an effort to better understand the effect of agricultural land abandonment on passerine bird communities, we sampled 20 randomly selected sites [1 km × 1 km] in remote Greek mountains, reflecting an abandonment gradient, in terms of forest encroachment. We sampled 169 plots using the point count method of fixed distance (47 passerine species), and we investigated bird diversity and community structure turnover along the gradient. We found that grazing intensity has a beneficial effect hampering forest encroachment that follows progressively land abandonment. Habitat composition changes gradually with forests developing at the expense of open meadows and heterogeneous grasslands. Forest encroachment has a significant negative effect on bird diversity and species richness, affecting in particular typical farmland and Mediterranean shrubland species. Birds form five distinct ecological clusters after land abandonment: species mostly found in pinewoods and cavity-dwelling species; species that prefer open forests forest edges or ecotones; species that prefer shrubland or open habitats with scattered woody vegetation; Mediterranean farmland birds that prefer semi-open habitats with hedges and/or woodlots; and, generalist forest-dwelling or shrubland species. We extracted a set of 22 species to represent the above ecological communities, as a new monitoring tool for agricultural land use change and conservation. We suggest that the maintenance of rural mosaics should be included in the priorities of agricultural policy for farmland bird diversity conservation.     

Forest transitions in Eastern Europe and their effects on carbon budgets

Forests often rebound from deforestation following industrialization and urbanization, but for many regions our understanding of where and when forest transitions happened, and how they affected carbon budgets remains poor. One such region is Eastern Europe, where political and socio‐economic conditions changed drastically over the last three centuries, but forest trends have not yet been analyzed in detail. We present a new assessment of historical forest change in the European part of the former Soviet Union and the legacies of these changes on contemporary carbon stocks. To reconstruct forest area, we homogenized statistics at the provincial level for ad 1700–2010 to identify forest transition years and forest trends. We contrast our reconstruction with the KK11 and HYDE 3.1 land change scenarios, and use all three datasets to drive the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model to calculate carbon stock dynamics. Our results revealed that forest transitions in Eastern Europe occurred predominantly in the early 20th century, substantially later than in Western Europe. We also found marked geographic variation in forest transitions, with some areas characterized by relatively stable or continuously declining forest area. Our data suggest extensive deforestation in European Russia already prior to ad 1700, and even greater deforestation in the 18th and 19th centuries than in the KK11 and HYDE scenarios. Based on our reconstruction, cumulative carbon emissions from deforestation were greater before 1700 (60 Pg C) than thereafter (29 Pg C). Summed over our entire study area, forest transitions led to a modest uptake in carbon over recent decades, with our dataset showing the smallest effect (<5.5 Pg C) and a more heterogeneous pattern of source and sink regions. This suggests substantial sequestration potential in regrowing forests of the region, a trend that may be amplified through ongoing land abandonment, climate change, and CO₂ fertilization.     

Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use

Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km² is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km² by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.     

The effects of land use and climate change on the carbon cycle of Europe over the past 500 years

The long residence time of carbon in forests and soils means that both the current state and future behavior of the terrestrial biosphere are influenced by past variability in climate and anthropogenic land use. Over the last half‐millennium, European terrestrial ecosystems were affected by the cool temperatures of the Little Ice Age, rising CO₂ concentrations, and human induced deforestation and land abandonment. To quantify the importance of these processes, we performed a series of simulations with the LPJ dynamic vegetation model driven by reconstructed climate, land use, and CO₂ concentrations. Although land use change was the major control on the carbon inventory of Europe over the last 500 years, the current state of the terrestrial biosphere is largely controlled by land use change during the past century. Between 1500 and 2000, climate variability led to temporary sequestration events of up to 3 Pg, whereas increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the 20th century led to an increase in carbon storage of up to 15 Pg. Anthropogenic land use caused between 25 Pg of carbon emissions and 5 Pg of uptake over the same time period, depending on the historical and spatial pattern of past land use and the timing of the reversal from deforestation to afforestation during the last two centuries. None of the currently existing anthropogenic land use change datasets adequately capture the timing of the forest transition in most European countries as recorded in historical observations. Despite considerable uncertainty, our scenarios indicate that with limited management, extant European forests have the potential to absorb between 5 and 12 Pg of carbon at the present day.     

Agricultural intensification and farmland birds: new insights from a central European country

The relationship between agricultural intensification and a decline in farmland bird populations is well documented in Europe, but the results are mostly based on data from the western part of the continent. In the former socialist eastern and central European countries, political changes around 1990 resulted in a steep decline in the intensity of agriculture. Therefore, one would expect populations of farmland birds to have recovered under these conditions of lower agricultural intensity. We explored population trends of 19 farmland bird species in the Czech Republic between 1982 and 2003 using data from a large‐scale monitoring scheme, and, additionally, we looked for relationships between such population changes and a number of variables describing the temporal development of Czech agriculture. Most farmland species declined during the focal period, and this decline was steepest in farmland specialists (Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus, Skylark Alauda arvensis, Linnet Carduelis cannabina and Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella). Although the intensity of agriculture was lower after than before 1990, the overall decline continued in most farmland bird species, albeit at a slower rate. The correlations between agricultural intensity and farmland bird decline showed opposite patterns to that found in other European studies, because bird populations were highest in years with the most intensive agriculture. We speculate that this pattern could have resulted from the impact of different driving forces causing farmland bird decline in different periods. The high intensity of agriculture could have caused the decline of the originally abundant populations before 1990. After 1990, the decreasing area of arable land could be the most important factor resulting in the continued decline of farmland bird populations. Our results demonstrate that the drivers of farmland bird population changes could differ across Europe, and thus investigations into the effect of farmland management in different parts of the continent are urgently required.     

Land Use Intensification and Disintensification in the Upper Cañete Valley, Peru

Farmers in the Upper Cañete valley have both disintensified and intensified land use. The direction of land use change depends on the production zone in which it takes place. Although land in the distant rainfed agropastoral zone is disintensified through land abandonment and an increase of the fallow period, land in the nearby irrigated agropastoral zone is intensified through more frequent cropping, and the use of high-yielding potato varieties, fertilizers, and pesticides. Simultaneous intensification and disintensification contradicts Boserup's theory of agricultural intensification, which predicts unilinear change for all land use systems within a village territory. Population has decreased in the Upper Cañte valley, but this factor alone cannot explain the dynamics of land use. Land use change is also driven by differences and complementarity between production zones, their distance from the villages, and social, economic, and technological change.     

The limitations of assessing impacts of land use changes on runoff with a distributed hydrological model: case study of the Hron River

A distributed hydrological model was applied for estimating changes in a runoff regime due to land use changes. The upper Hron river basin, which has an area of 1766 km² and is located in central Slovakia, was selected as the pilot basin. A physically-based rainfall-runoff model with distributed parameters was used for modelling runoff from rainfall and melting snow. The parameters of the model were estimated using climate data from 1981–2000 and from three digital map layers: a land-use map, soil map and digital elevation model. Several scenarios of changes in land use were prepared, and the runoff under the new land use conditions was simulated. Long-term mean annual runoff components and the design maximal mean daily discharges with a return period from 5 to 100 years under the previous and changed land uses were estimated and compared. The simulated runoff changes were confronted with expert judgments and estimates from the literature. Limitations of the use of distributed models for estimating land use changes are discussed.     

The influence of time,soil characteristics,and land‐use history on soil phosphorus legacies: a global meta‐analysis

Agriculturally driven changes in soil phosphorus (P) are known to have persistent effects on local ecosystem structure and function, but regional patterns of soil P recovery following cessation of agriculture are less well understood. We synthesized data from 94 published studies to assess evidence of these land‐use legacies throughout the world by comparing soil labile and total P content in abandoned agricultural areas to that of reference ecosystems or sites remaining in agriculture. Our meta‐analysis shows that soil P content was typically elevated after abandonment compared to reference levels, but reduced compared to soils that remained under agriculture. There were more pronounced differences in the legacies of past agriculture on soil P across regions than between the types of land use practiced prior to abandonment (cropland, pasture, or forage grassland). However, consistent patterns of soil P enrichment or depletion according to soil order and types of post‐agricultural vegetation suggest that these factors may mediate agricultural legacies on soil P. We also used mixed effects models to examine the role of multiple variables on soil P recovery following agriculture. Time since cessation of agriculture was highly influential on soil P legacies, with clear reductions in the degree of labile and total P enrichment relative to reference ecosystems over time. Soil characteristics (clay content and pH) were strongly related to changes in labile P compared to reference sites, but these were relatively unimportant for total P. The duration of past agricultural use and climate were weakly related to changes in total P only. Our finding of reductions in the degree of soil P alteration over time relative to reference conditions reveals the potential to mitigate these land‐use legacies in some soils. Better ability to predict dynamics of soil nutrient recovery after termination of agricultural use is essential to ecosystem management following land‐use change.