An algorithm for finding globally identifiable parameter combinations of nonlinear ODE models using Gröbner Bases

The parameter identifiability problem for dynamic system ODE models has been extensively studied. Nevertheless, except for linear ODE models, the question of establishing identifiable combinations of parameters when the model is unidentifiable has not received as much attention and the problem is not fully resolved for nonlinear ODEs. Identifiable combinations are useful, for example, for the reparameterization of an unidentifiable ODE model into an identifiable one. We extend an existing algorithm for finding globally identifiable parameters of nonlinear ODE models to generate the ‘simplest’ globally identifiable parameter combinations using Gröbner Bases. We also provide sufficient conditions for the method to work, demonstrate our algorithm and find associated identifiable reparameterizations for several linear and nonlinear unidentifiable biomodels.     

A priori analysis of metabolic flux identifiability from (13)C-labeling data

The (13)C-labeling technique was introduced in the field of metabolic engineering as a tool for determining fluxes that could not be found using the 'classical' method of flux balancing. An a priori flux identifiability analysis is required in order to determine whether a (13)C-labeling experiment allows the identification of all the fluxes. In this article, we propose a method for identifiability analysis that is based on the recently introduced 'cumomer' concept. The method improves upon previous identifiability methods in that it provides a way of systematically reducing the metabolic network on the basis of structural elements that constitute a network and to use the implicit function theorem to analytically determine whether the fluxes in the reduced network are theoretically identifiable for various types of real measurement data. Application of the method to a realistic flux identification problem shows both the potential of the method in yielding new, interesting conclusions regarding the identifiability and its practical limitations that are caused by the fact that symbolic calculations grow fast with the dimension of the studied system.     

Unscented Kalman filter with parameter identifiability analysis for the estimation of multiple parameters in kinetic models

In systems biology, experimentally measured parameters are not always available, necessitating the use of computationally based parameter estimation. In order to rely on estimated parameters, it is critical to first determine which parameters can be estimated for a given model and measurement set. This is done with parameter identifiability analysis. A kinetic model of the sucrose accumulation in the sugar cane culm tissue developed by Rohwer et al. was taken as a test case model. What differentiates this approach is the integration of an orthogonal-based local identifiability method into the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), rather than using the more common observability-based method which has inherent limitations. It also introduces a variable step size based on the system uncertainty of the UKF during the sensitivity calculation. This method identified 10 out of 12 parameters as identifiable. These ten parameters were estimated using the UKF, which was run 97 times. Throughout the repetitions the UKF proved to be more consistent than the estimation algorithms used for comparison.     

An investigation of the sources of nonuniqueness in deterministic identifiability

While a choice of techniques exists for checking the deterministic (structural) identifiability of a specific linear, time-invariant model from a specific experiment, and some progress has been made towards topological criteria for identifiability, no method at present available allows quick and reliable checking of a range of models for globally unique identifiability from a range of experiments. Even individual cases are sometimes difficult and tedious to check. The reasons are examined by exhaustive case-by-case analysis of single-input experiments on all possible three-compartment models. All patterns of loss to the environment are covered, and all combinations of observed compartments. Catalogues of minimal observation sets for globally unique identifiability, and of nonuniquely identifiable cases, are presented. The structural causes of nonuniqueness are discussed by reference to examples from the latter catalogue. Methods are given for shortening the derivation of the structural equations giving rise to nonunique parameters. From the diversity of behavior found, it is concluded that the prospects of obtaining a comprehensive set of necessary and sufficient structural conditions for globally unique identifiability are poor.     

Practical identifiability of biokinetic parameters of a model describing two-step nitrification in biofilms

Parameter estimation and model calibration are key problems in the application of biofilm models in engineering practice, where a large number of model parameters need to be determined usually based on experimental data with only limited information content. In this article, identifiability of biokinetic parameters of a biofilm model describing two-step nitrification was evaluated based solely on bulk phase measurements of ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate. In addition to evaluating the impact of experimental conditions and available measurements, the influence of mass transport limitation within the biofilm and the initial parameter values on identifiability of biokinetic parameters was evaluated. Selection of parameters for identifiability analysis was based on global mean sensitivities while parameter identifiability was analyzed using local sensitivity functions. At most, four of the six most sensitive biokinetic parameters were identifiable from results of batch experiments at bulk phase dissolved oxygen concentrations of 0.8 or 5 mg O(2)/L. High linear dependences between the parameters of the subsets (KO2,AOB,muAOB) and (KO2,NOB,muNOB) resulted in reduced identifiability. Mass transport limitation within the biofilm did not influence the number of identifiable parameters but, in fact, decreased collinearity between parameters, especially for parameters that are otherwise correlated (e.g., muAOB) and KO2,AOB, or muNOB and KO2,NOB). The choice of the initial parameter values had a significant impact on the identifiability of two parameter subsets, both including the parameters muAOB and KO2,AOB. Parameter subsets that did not include the subsets muAOB and KO2,AOB or muNOB and KO2,NOB were clearly identifiable independently of the choice of the initial parameter values.     

Structural identifiability of polynomial and rational systems

Since analysis and simulation of biological phenomena require the availability of their fully specified models, one needs to be able to estimate unknown parameter values of the models. In this paper we deal with identifiability of parametrizations which is the property of one-to-one correspondence of parameter values and the corresponding outputs of the models. Verification of identifiability of a parametrization precedes estimation of numerical values of parameters, and thus determination of a fully specified model of a considered phenomenon. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the parametrizations of polynomial and rational systems to be structurally or globally identifiable. The results are applied to investigate the identifiability properties of the system modeling a chain of two enzyme-catalyzed irreversible reactions. The other examples deal with the phenomena modeled by using Michaelis–Menten kinetics and the model of a peptide chain elongation.     

Parameter estimation of a monod-type model. Part I: Theoretical identifiability and sensitivity analysis

Summary Parameter estimation of a Monod-type model based on the study of the theoretical identifiability of the model followed by the sensitivity analysis of the state variables with respect to parameters is presented. Theorerical identifiability allows to establish the unicity of the solution. On the other hand, sensitivity analysis throws light on the conditions that make parameters identifiable. Thus, the introduction of additional parameters, especially substrate maintenance and death constant, increases the estimation difficulty.     

Similarity transformation approach to identifiability analysis of nonlinear compartmental models

Through use of the local state isomorphism theorem instead of the algebraic equivalence theorem of linear systems theory, the similarity transformation approach is extended to nonlinear models, resulting in finitely verifiable sufficient and necessary conditions for global and local identifiability. The approach requires testing of certain controllability and observability conditions, but in many practical examples these conditions prove very easy to verify. In principle the method also involves nonlinear state variable transformations, but in all of the examples presented in the paper the transformations turn out to be linear. The method is applied to an unidentifiable nonlinear model and a locally identifiable nonlinear model, and these are the first nonlinear models other than bilinear models where the reason for lack of global identifiability is nontrivial. The method is also applied to two models with Michaelis-Menten elimination kinetics, both of considerable importance in pharmacokinetics, and for both of which the complicated nature of the algebraic equations arising from the Taylor series approach has hitherto defeated attempts to establish identifiability results for specific input functions.     

Nonparametric methods for survival/sacrifice experiments

In many carcinogenicity studies, the time to disease occurrence is not clinically observable; a survival/sacrifice experiment is considered for nonparametric inference about the rate of disease occurrence. A multistate model for disease development and death is considered and an algorithm of the EM type for maximum likelihood estimation is obtained. Questions of identifiability and estimability are addressed. Under the model, interval hazards for disease occurrence are identifiable for intervals defined by the sacrifice times. A score test is developed appropriate for the comparison of two groups with respect to disease development without need of any assumption concerning lethality of the disease concerned.     

Finding identifiable parameter combinations in nonlinear ODE models and the rational reparameterization of their input-output equations

When examining the structural identifiability properties of dynamic system models, some parameters can take on an infinite number of values and yet yield identical input-output data. These parameters and the model are then said to be unidentifiable. Finding identifiable combinations of parameters with which to reparameterize the model provides a means for quantitatively analyzing the model and computing solutions in terms of the combinations. In this paper, we revisit and explore the properties of an algorithm for finding identifiable parameter combinations using Gröbner Bases and prove useful theoretical properties of these parameter combinations. We prove a set of M algebraically independent identifiable parameter combinations can be found using this algorithm and that there exists a unique rational reparameterization of the input-output equations over these parameter combinations. We also demonstrate application of the procedure to a nonlinear biomodel.     

Metabolic isotopomer labeling systems. Part II: structural flux identifiability analysis

Metabolic flux analysis using carbon labeling experiments (CLEs) is an important tool in metabolic engineering where the intracellular fluxes have to be computed from the measured extracellular fluxes and the partially measured distribution of 13C labeling within the intracellular metabolite pools. The relation between unknown fluxes and measurements is described by an isotopomer labeling system (ILS) (see Part I [Math. Biosci. 169 (2001) 173]). Part II deals with the structural flux identifiability of measured ILSs in the steady state. The central question is whether the measured data contains sufficient information to determine the unknown intracellular fluxes. This question has to be decided a priori, i.e. before the CLE is carried out. In structural identifiability analysis the measurements are assumed to be noise-free. A general theory of structural flux identifiability for measured ILSs is presented and several algorithms are developed to solve the identifiability problem. In the particular case of maximal measurement information, a symbolical algorithm is presented that decides the identifiability question by means of linear methods. Several upper bounds of the number of identifiable fluxes are derived, and the influence of the chosen inputs is evaluated. By introducing integer arithmetic this algorithm can even be applied to large networks. For the general case of arbitrary measurement information, identifiability is decided by a local criterion. A new algorithm based on integer arithmetic enables an a priori local identifiability analysis to be performed for networks of arbitrary size. All algorithms have been implemented and flux identifiability is investigated for the network of the central metabolic pathways of a microorganism. Moreover, several small examples are worked out to illustrate the influence of input metabolite labeling and the paradox of information loss due to network simplification.     

Parameter Identifiability and Redundancy: Theoretical Considerations

Background

Models for complex biological systems may involve a large number of parameters. It may well be that some of these parameters cannot be derived from observed data via regression techniques. Such parameters are said to be unidentifiable, the remaining parameters being identifiable. Closely related to this idea is that of redundancy, that a set of parameters can be expressed in terms of some smaller set. Before data is analysed it is critical to determine which model parameters are identifiable or redundant to avoid ill-defined and poorly convergent regression.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this paper we outline general considerations on parameter identifiability, and introduce the notion of weak local identifiability and gradient weak local identifiability. These are based on local properties of the likelihood, in particular the rank of the Hessian matrix. We relate these to the notions of parameter identifiability and redundancy previously introduced by Rothenberg (Econometrica 39 (1971) 577–591) and Catchpole and Morgan (Biometrika 84 (1997) 187–196). Within the widely used exponential family, parameter irredundancy, local identifiability, gradient weak local identifiability and weak local identifiability are shown to be largely equivalent. We consider applications to a recently developed class of cancer models of Little and Wright (Math Biosciences 183 (2003) 111–134) and Little et al. (J Theoret Biol 254 (2008) 229–238) that generalize a large number of other recently used quasi-biological cancer models.

Conclusions/Significance

We have shown that the previously developed concepts of parameter local identifiability and redundancy are closely related to the apparently weaker properties of weak local identifiability and gradient weak local identifiability—within the widely used exponential family these concepts largely coincide.     

Identifiability and estimation of causal effects in randomized trials with noncompliance and completely nonignorable missing data

Summary .  In this article, we first study parameter identifiability in randomized clinical trials with noncompliance and missing outcomes. We show that under certain conditions the parameters of interest are identifiable even under different types of completely nonignorable missing data: that is, the missing mechanism depends on the outcome. We then derive their maximum likelihood and moment estimators and evaluate their finite-sample properties in simulation studies in terms of bias, efficiency, and robustness. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the assumed nonignorable missing-data model has an important impact on the estimated complier average causal effect (CACE) parameter. Our new method provides some new and useful alternative nonignorable missing-data models over the existing latent ignorable model, which guarantees parameter identifiability, for estimating the CACE in a randomized clinical trial with noncompliance and missing data.     

On testing structural identifiability by a simple scaling method: Relying on scaling symmetries can be misleading

A recent paper published in PLOS Computational Biology [1] introduces the Scaling Invariance Method (SIM) for analysing structural local identifiability and observability. These two properties define mathematically the possibility of determining the values of the parameters (identifiability) and states (observability) of a dynamic model by observing its output. In this note we warn that SIM considers scaling symmetries as the only possible cause of non-identifiability and non-observability. We show that other types of symmetries can cause the same problems without being detected by SIM, and that in those cases the method may lead one to conclude that the model is identifiable and observable when it is actually not.     

Construction of a large scale integrated map of macrophage pathogen recognition and effector systems

Background

Mathematical models provide abstract representations of the information gained from experimental observations on the structure and function of a particular biological system. Conferring a predictive character on a given mathematical formulation often relies on determining a number of non-measurable parameters that largely condition the model's response. These parameters can be identified by fitting the model to experimental data. However, this fit can only be accomplished when identifiability can be guaranteed.

Results

We propose a novel iterative identification procedure for detecting and dealing with the lack of identifiability. The procedure involves the following steps: 1) performing a structural identifiability analysis to detect identifiable parameters; 2) globally ranking the parameters to assist in the selection of the most relevant parameters; 3) calibrating the model using global optimization methods; 4) conducting a practical identifiability analysis consisting of two (a priori and a posteriori) phases aimed at evaluating the quality of given experimental designs and of the parameter estimates, respectively and 5) optimal experimental design so as to compute the scheme of experiments that maximizes the quality and quantity of information for fitting the model.

Conclusions

The presented procedure was used to iteratively identify a mathematical model that describes the NF-κB regulatory module involving several unknown parameters. We demonstrated the lack of identifiability of the model under typical experimental conditions and computed optimal dynamic experiments that largely improved identifiability properties.     

Estimating trees from filtered data: Identifiability of models for morphological phylogenetics

As an alternative to parsimony analyses, stochastic models have been proposed ( [Lewis, 2001] and [Nylander et al., 2004]) for morphological characters, so that maximum likelihood or Bayesian analyses may be used for phylogenetic inference. A key feature of these models is that they account for ascertainment bias, in that only varying, or parsimony-informative characters are observed. However, statistical consistency of such model-based inference requires that the model parameters be identifiable from the joint distribution they entail, and this issue has not been addressed.Here we prove that parameters for several such models, with finite state spaces of arbitrary size, are identifiable, provided the tree has at least eight leaves. If the tree topology is already known, then seven leaves suffice for identifiability of the numerical parameters. The method of proof involves first inferring a full distribution of both parsimony-informative and non-informative pattern joint probabilities from the parsimony-informative ones, using phylogenetic invariants. The failure of identifiability of the tree parameter for four-taxon trees is also investigated.     

On the identifiability of metabolic network models

A major problem for the identification of metabolic network models is parameter identifiability, that is, the possibility to unambiguously infer the parameter values from the data. Identifiability problems may be due to the structure of the model, in particular implicit dependencies between the parameters, or to limitations in the quantity and quality of the available data. We address the detection and resolution of identifiability problems for a class of pseudo-linear models of metabolism, so-called linlog models. Linlog models have the advantage that parameter estimation reduces to linear or orthogonal regression, which facilitates the analysis of identifiability. We develop precise definitions of structural and practical identifiability, and clarify the fundamental relations between these concepts. In addition, we use singular value decomposition to detect identifiability problems and reduce the model to an identifiable approximation by a principal component analysis approach. The criterion is adapted to real data, which are frequently scarce, incomplete, and noisy. The test of the criterion on a model with simulated data shows that it is capable of correctly identifying the principal components of the data vector. The application to a state-of-the-art dataset on central carbon metabolism in Escherichia coli yields the surprising result that only $4$ out of $31$ reactions, and $37$ out of $100$ parameters, are identifiable. This underlines the practical importance of identifiability analysis and model reduction in the modeling of large-scale metabolic networks. Although our approach has been developed in the context of linlog models, it carries over to other pseudo-linear models, such as generalized mass-action (power-law) models. Moreover, it provides useful hints for the identifiability analysis of more general classes of nonlinear models of metabolism.     

Structural identifiability of the parameters of a nonlinear batch reactor model.

The similarity transformation approach is used to analyze the structural identifiability of the parameters of a nonlinear model of microbial growth in a batch reactor in which only the concentration of microorganisms is measured. It is found that some of the model parameters are unidentifiable from this experiment, thus providing the first example of a real-life nonlinear model that turns out not to be globally identifiable. If it is possible to measure the initial concentration of growth-limiting substrate as well, all model parameters are globally identifiable.     

The identifiability of tree topology for phylogenetic models, including covarion and mixture models.

For a model of molecular evolution to be useful for phylogenetic inference, the topology of evolutionary trees must be identifiable. That is, from a joint distribution the model predicts, it must be possible to recover the tree parameter. We establish tree identifiability for a number of phylogenetic models, including a covarion model and a variety of mixture models with a limited number of classes. The proof is based on the introduction of a more general model, allowing more states at internal nodes of the tree than at leaves, and the study of the algebraic variety formed by the joint distributions to which it gives rise. Tree identifiability is first established for this general model through the use of certain phylogenetic invariants.     

A PDMP model of the epithelial cell turn-over in the intestinal crypt including microbiota-derived regulations

Mechanistic models are a powerful tool to gain insights into biological processes. The parameters of such models, e.g. kinetic rate constants, usually cannot be measured directly but need to be inferred from experimental data. In this article, we study dynamical models of the translation kinetics after mRNA transfection and analyze their parameter identifiability. That is, whether parameters can be uniquely determined from perfect or realistic data in theory and practice. Previous studies have considered ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of the process, and here we formulate a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. For both model types, we consider structural identifiability based on the model equations and practical identifiability based on simulated as well as experimental data and find that the SDE model provides better parameter identifiability than the ODE model. Moreover, our analysis shows that even for those parameters of the ODE model that are considered to be identifiable, the obtained estimates are sometimes unreliable. Overall, our study clearly demonstrates the relevance of considering different modeling approaches and that stochastic models can provide more reliable and informative results.