Bias in the detection of negative density dependence in plant communities

Regression dilution is a statistical inference bias that causes underestimation of the strength of dependency between two variables when the predictors are error‐prone proxies (EPPs). EPPs are widely used in plant community studies focused on negative density‐dependence (NDD) to quantify competitive interactions. Because of the nature of the bias, conspecific NDD is often overestimated in recruitment analyses, and in some cases, can be erroneously detected when absent. In contrast, for survival analyses, EPPs typically cause NDD to be underestimated, but underestimation is more severe for abundant species and for heterospecific effects, thereby generating spurious negative relationships between the strength of NDD and the abundances of con‐ and heterospecifics. This can explain why many studies observed rare species to suffer more severely from conspecific NDD, and heterospecific effects to be disproportionally smaller than conspecific effects. In general, such species‐dependent bias is often related to traits associated with likely mechanisms of NDD, which creates false patterns and complicates the ecological interpretation of the analyses. Classic examples taken from literature and simulations demonstrate that this bias has been pervasive, which calls into question the emerging paradigm that intraspecific competition has been demonstrated by direct field measurements to be generally stronger than interspecific competition.     

The frequency of detection of density dependence in insect orders

Abstract.

• 1 A priori, there are no obvious reasons why patterns should exist in the frequency of density dependence across insect orders. However, orders may reflect related factors which influence population regulation (e.g. life-history patterns and ecology) and are difficult to quantify. The frequency of occurrence of density dependence is compared in 171 time series (of ten or more generations) from Lepidoptera, Hemiptera, Diptera, Odonata, Hymenoptera and Coleoptera. A posteriori attempts are made to identify the cause of observed patterns.
• 2 Buhner's (1975) test found non-delayed density dependence more frequently in Odonata than Lepidoptera and Hymenoptera, which in turn showed non-delayed density dependence more frequently than Diptera, Hemiptera and Coleoptera. Similarly, detection was greater for Odonata than other orders using Dennis & Taper's (1993) test for density dependence and Crowley's (1992) test for attraction. Varley & Gradwell's (1960) test found density dependence less frequently in Hemiptera than other orders. These differences were independent of time series length, temporal trends and numbers of generations per year.
• 3 The reasons for observed patterns in detection of density dependence (and attraction) in insect orders are not clear; however, plausible explanations are differences in: (i) intrinsic growth rate, which is correlated with body size (although evidence to support this hypothesis is weak); (ii) the sampling method used; or (iii) whether individuals come from a single population or many populations.
• 4 Using Turchin's (1990) test, delayed (lag 2) density dependence was detected most frequently in Hymenoptera, which often show delayed diapause or are parasitoids.

     

Experimental evidence for density dependence of reproduction in great tits

1. Density dependence of avian reproduction has often been analysed using correlations between annual mean reproductive output and population density. Experiments are necessary to prove that density is the cause of the observed patterns, but so far, three out of four experimental studies do not support a direct causal effect of density on reproduction.
2. This paper presents experimental evidence that reproductive decisions in great tits, Parus major L., are causally affected by breeding density. The breeding density of great tits was manipulated by providing nest-boxes at different densities in an ecologically homogeneous area.
3. Within years the densities in the high and low density plots differed approximately 8-fold. During the 11 years of the experiment, clutch size, nestling mass and the proportion of birds starting a second brood were all lower in the high density plot. In 5 years with equal breeding densities in both parts, clutch size did not differ between the plots. The patterns found were consistent with the density effects as predicted from the non-experimental data.     

宝天曼国家级自然保护区落叶阔叶林密度制约效应对树木存活的影响

密度制约对物种共存起着重要作用。随着密度制约效应研究的深入, 亲缘关系较近的物种间表现出的密度制约效应逐渐被人们认识。本研究基于2009和2014年对宝天曼1 ha落叶阔叶林样地的2次调查数据, 利用广义线性混合模型分析了重要值排名前11位的物种不同邻域尺度的密度制约效应对不同径级(小径级(1 cm ≤ DBH < 5 cm)、中径级(5 cm ≤ DBH < 10 cm)、大径级(DBH ≥ 10 cm))目标个体存活的影响。研究表明: (1) 5年间样地中DBH ≥ 1 cm的所有个体的年均死亡率和增员率分别为5.85%和0.27%; (2)有5个物种的个体存活率与同种邻体个体数及同种邻体胸高断面积显著负相关; (3)小径级个体的存活在5 m的邻域范围内受同种密度制约和谱系密度制约的影响都很显著; 中径级个体在3个尺度上受到的密度制约和谱系密度制约的影响都不大; 大径级个体在7.5 m、10 m邻域范围内受谱系密度制约影响显著。结果表明, 同种密度制约和谱系密度制约效应对宝天曼落叶阔叶林不同生长阶段的树木个体影响不同。     

Detection of density dependence from annual censuses of bracken-feeding insects

Summary A variety of techniques were used to test for density dependence in 32 time series from bracken-feeding insects. Seventeen taxa (primarily species, but including some pooled data from two or more closely related species whose larvae could not be distinguished in frond surveys) occurred on an open site; a woodland site held 15 taxa. For series of 12 years, collected on the open habitat, direct density dependence was detected by one or more of the techniques in 10 (58.8%) of 17 taxa, compared to only 5 (33.3%) of 15 taxa with time series of 8 years in length from the woodland habitat. Delayed density dependence was detected in 6 cases for the open site and in no cases at the woodland site. Either direct or delayed density dependence was found in 13 (76.5%) of 17 taxa for the open site and 13 (86.7%) of the 15 taxa which occurred on both sites. Although these results suggest a high frequency of density dependence in the species making up the bracken insect community, results from individual tests were extremely variable. Density dependence was detected least often by Vickery and Nudds' (1984) test, and most frequently by Varley and Gradwell's (1960) test, although the latter is prone to high rates of detecting spurious density dependence. Direct density dependence was detected most frequently in taxa that were univoltine and did not have delayed diapause, i.e. in those taxa whose life-histories conform most closely to the assumptions of the models underlying the analyses. Delayed density dependence occurred more frequently in species with more complex life-histories at the open site (taxa that were either bivoltine or multivoltine, or had delayed diapause). The results are consistent with the view that that the bracken herbivore assemblage consists of populations which are independently regulated by density dependent processes, although the present analyses suggest that we cannot rely on these tests to firmly show whether density dependence is present or not in an individual time series of the lengths considered here.     

Mechanisms of density dependence in fluctuating vole populations: deducing annual density dependence from seasonal processes

Based on recent advances in time-series analyses of ecological dynamics using statistical and mathematical models, we summarise our recent results on the seasonal processes in the annual population dynamics of the grey-sided vole Clethrionomys rufocanus (Sundevall, 1846) in Hokkaido, Japan, and report additional analyses on annual and seasonal density dependence. Annual direct density dependence was strong in almost all populations. In contrast, delayed density dependence was generally weak, although clear delayed density dependence was detected in some of the studied populations. Although seasonal density dependence was observed both in winter and summer, direct density dependence was much more profound during winter; thus, winter density dependence contributed most to the overall annual direct density dependence. We found no correlation between the seasonal components of annual direct density dependence; however, the corresponding seasonal components for annual delayed density dependence were positively correlated. We conclude that winter conditions influence the strength of annual direct density dependence most profoundly. Moreover, we conclude that direct density dependence during summer and winter may be generated by different mechanisms, whereas delayed density dependence seems to be generated by a common mechanism. Candidate mechanisms are discussed in relation to general knowledge of northern rodent populations and to specific insights provided by earlier studies of grey-sided voles in Hokkaido.     

Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics

Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks.     

Heterogeneity and density dependence in a field study of a tephritid-parasitoid interaction

Abstract.

• 1 The spatial distributions of two tephritid flies (Urophora stylata (Fabricius) and Terellia serratulae L.) attacking thistle flower heads and the levels of parasitism from their associated parasitoid guilds were studied over a 7-year period.
• 2 Using these data it is possible to seek both temporal, density dependent relationships between average levels of parasitism and host density per generation, and also any spatial patterns of parasitism contributing to stability that may be operating within the same field system.
• 3 Parasitism by the two most important generalist parasitoids of T.serratulae is a direct function of average T.serratulae density per year. There is little evidence of any stabilizing heterogeneity arising from the spatial distribution of parasitism within generations.
• 4 Temporal density dependence of Urophora stylata cannot be confirmed from the 7 years of study but there is evidence of spatial heterogeneity which may have an important effect on the dynamics of the host population.

     

Nutritional availability and larval density dependence in Aedes aegypti

1. Density dependence is the effect of density on population growth. Density dependence is an aggregate term for a suite of complex interactions between animals and their environment. 2. Mechanistic studies of density dependence in mosquito ecology are sparse, and the role of environmental factors is poorly understood. 3. Two empirical study designs were compared to consider the interaction between nutritional availability and density in Aedes aegypti. First, larvae were fed per capita. Second, larvae were fed a fixed amount of food unadjusted for the number of individuals; therefore, at higher densities, individuals received less per capita. 4. Survivorship, wing length, and development rate were lower at high densities when larvae were fed a fixed, unadjusted amount of food. The opposite was observed when food was adjusted per capita, suggesting that high densities may be beneficial for larval development when per capita nutrition is held constant 5. These results demonstrate that negative associations between Ae. aegypti larval density and larval development are a manifestation of decreased per capita nutrient uptake at high densities. 6. Population regulation is a proportional response to environmental variability in Ae. aegypti. Increased survivorship at high densities when larvae were fed per capita demonstrates that nutritional availability is not the only mechanism of density dependence in mosquitoes. Further studies should characterise density dependence in mosquitoes by using mechanistic study designs across diverse environmental conditions.     

Intraspecific variation in the strength of density dependence in aphid populations

Abstract.  1. Experimental evidence is presented for positive, negative, and no density dependence from 32 independent density manipulations of milkweed aphids ( Aphis nerii ) in laboratory and field experiments. This substantial variation in intraspecific density dependence is associated with temperature and host-plant species.
2. It is reported that as population growth rate increases, density dependence becomes more strongly negative, suggesting that the monotonic definition of density dependence used in many common population models is appropriate for these aphids, and that population growth rate and carrying capacity are not directly proportional.
3. For populations that conform to these assumptions, population growth rate may be widely applicable as a predictor of the strength of density dependence.     

Assessing the impact of density dependence in field populations of Aedes aegypti

Although many laboratory studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted with Ae. aegypti, there have been few studies in natural environments and none that examined density dependence in natural containers at normal field densities. Additionally, current mathematical models that predict Ae. aegypti population dynamics lack empirically-based functions for density-dependence. We performed field experiments in Tapachula, Mexico, where dengue is a significant public health concern. Twenty-one containers with natural food and water that already contained larvae were collected from local houses. Each container was divided in half and the naturally occurring larvae were apportioned in a manner that resulted in one side of the container (high density) having four times the density of the second side (low density). Larvae were counted and pupae were removed daily. Once adults emerged, wing span was measured to estimate body size. Density had a significant impact on larval survival, adult body size, and the time taken to transition from 4(th) instar to pupation. Increased density decreased larval survival by 20% and decreased wing length by an average of 0.19 mm. These results provide a starting point for a better understanding of density dependence in field populations of Ae. aegypti.     

Predators reverse the direction of density dependence for juvenile salmon mortality

The effect of predators on prey populations depends on how predator-caused mortality changes with prey population density. Predators can enforce density-dependent prey mortality and contribute to population stability, but only if they have a positive numerical or behavioral response to increased prey density. Otherwise, predator saturation can result in inversely density-dependent mortality, destabilizing prey populations and increasing extinction risk. Juvenile salmon and trout provide some of the clearest empirical examples of density-dependent mortality in animal populations. However, although juvenile salmon are very vulnerable to predators, the demographic effects of predators on juvenile salmon are unknown. We tested the interactive effects of predators and population density on the mortality of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) using controlled releases of salmon in natural streams. We introduced newly hatched juvenile salmon at three population density treatments in six study streams, half of which contained slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus), a common generalist predator (18 release sites in total, repeated over two summers). Sculpin reversed the direction of density dependence for juvenile salmon mortality. Salmon mortality was density dependent in streams with no sculpin, but inversely density dependent in streams where sculpin were abundant. Such predator-mediated inverse density dependence is especially problematic for prey populations suppressed by other factors, thereby presenting a fundamental challenge to persistence of rare populations and restoration of extirpated populations.     

Detecting and estimating density dependence in wildlife populations

We review methods for detecting and assessing the strength of density dependence based on 2 types of approaches: surveys of population size and studies of life history traits, in particular demographic parameters. For the first type of studies, methods neglecting uncertainty in population size should definitely be abandoned. Bayesian approaches to simple state-space models accounting for uncertainty in population size are recommended, with some caution because of numerical difficulties and risks of model misspecification. Realistic state-space models incorporating features such as environmental covariates, age structure, etc., may lack power because of the shortness of the time series and the simultaneous presence of process and sampling variability. In all cases, complementing the population survey data with some external information, with priority on the intrinsic growth rate, is highly recommended. Methods for detecting density dependence in life history traits are generally conservative (i.e., tend to underestimate the strength of density dependence). Among approaches to correct for this effect, the state-space formulation of capture–recapture models is again the most promising. Foreseeable developments will exploit integrated monitoring combining population size surveys and individual longitudinal data in refined state-space models, for which a Bayesian approach is the most straightforward statistical treatment. One may thus expect an integration of various types of models that will make it possible to look at density dependence as a complex biological process interacting with other processes rather than in terms of a simple equation; modern statistical and modeling tools make such a synthesis within reach. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Determining the density dependence of immigration and emigration of benthic stream invertebrates: theoretical considerations

Simple mathematical models are formulated to describe density independent and density dependent dispersal. These models clarify hypotheses of density dependence and may be manipulated easily to suit particular applications. The models demonstrate that the initial composition of a species aggregate must be controlled before valid conclusions can be drawn about the density dependency of the aggregate's dispersal. Stochastic models of emigration are derived to assess the power of particular experimental designs and statistical techniques to discriminate a known form of density dependent emigration. Contribution No. 369, Great Lakes Research Division, University of Michigan Contribution No. 369, Great Lakes Research Division, University of Michigan     

Delayed density dependence and oscillatory population dynamics in overlapping-generation systems of a seed beetle Callosobruchus chinensis: matrix population model

Long-term experimental systems with overlapping generations using a seed beetle, Callosobruchus chinensis, were maintained by providing 5 g of azuki beans (Vigna angularis) in two different renewal intervals: either 7 days or 10 days. The 7-day-renewal system (system 1) showed oscillatory dynamics with a constant periodic cycle of ca. 7 weeks. More stable population dynamics were seen in the 10-day-interval system (system 2). Short-term experiments showed that survivorship of adults increased with higher adult density, and that the survival rate of adults up to the age of 7 days was much higher than up to 10 days of age. In addition, the per capita production of hatched eggs by females which had survived for 7 days increased with increasing density experienced by the females. Females aged 10 days rarely laid eggs which hatched. We constructed a matrix population model based on either 1 week for system 1 or 10 days for system 2. The model included five stages in system 1: the hatched egg, the final instar larva, the pupa, the young adult and the old adult. Four stages were incorporated in the model for system 2: the young instar larva, the pupa, the young adult, and the old adult. Logistic-difference equations were applied to formulate both overcompensatory density dependence in the hatched-egg production by adults and undercompensatory response in the larval development up to the pupa. The survivorship of young adults to the old stage and the per capita hatched-egg productivity of the old females followed a linear regression against the young adult density. Inside-bean processes were adjusted to be equivalent in the two models, irrespective of the resource renewal intervals. The model predicted that system 1 would oscillate for a long time but that system 2 would rapidly converge to the equilibrium point. Multiplicative effects of both the delayed density dependence through interstage restraint effects and the overcompensatory density dependence in hatched-egg production generated various dynamic patterns ranging from a quickly disappearing damped oscillation to stable limit cycles in system 1. The relationship between resource renewal cycles and delayed density dependence was discussed based on these simulations.     

Drivers of seedling survival in a temperate forest and their relative importance at three stages of succession

Negative density dependence (NDD) and niche partitioning have been perceived as important mechanisms for the maintenance of species diversity. However, little is known about their relative contributions to seedling survival. We examined the effects of biotic and abiotic neighborhoods and the variations of biotic neighborhoods among species using survival data for 7503 seedlings belonging to 22 woody species over a period of 2 years in three different forest types, a half‐mature forest (HF), a mature forest (MF), and an old‐growth forest (OGF), each of these representing a specific successional stage in a temperate forest ecosystem in northeastern China. We found a convincing evidence for the existence of NDD in temperate forest ecosystems. The biotic and abiotic variables affecting seedlings survival change with successional stage, seedling size, and age. The strength of NDD for the smaller (<20 cm in height) and younger seedlings (1–2 years) as well as all seedlings combined varies significantly among species. We found no evidence that a community compensatory trend (CCT) existed in our study area. The results of this study demonstrate that the relative importance of NDD and habitat niche partitioning in driving seedling survival varies with seedling size and age and that the biotic and abiotic factors affecting seedlings survival change with successional stage.