Contingent productivity responses to more extreme rainfall regimes across a grassland biome

Climate models predict, and empirical evidence confirms, that more extreme precipitation regimes are occurring in tandem with warmer atmospheric temperatures. These more extreme rainfall patterns are characterized by increased event size separated by longer within season drought periods and represent novel climatic conditions whose consequences for different ecosystem types are largely unknown. Here, we present results from an experiment in which more extreme rainfall patterns were imposed in three native grassland sites in the Central Plains Region of North America, USA. Along this 600 km precipitation–productivity gradient, there was strong sensitivity of temperate grasslands to more extreme growing season rainfall regimes, with responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) contingent on mean soil water levels for different grassland types. At the mesic end of the gradient (tallgrass prairie), longer dry intervals between events led to extended periods of below-average soil water content, increased plant water stress and reduced ANPP by 18%. The opposite response occurred at the dry end (semiarid steppe), where a shift to fewer, but larger, events increased periods of above-average soil water content, reduced seasonal plant water stress and resulted in a 30% increase in ANPP. At an intermediate mixed grass prairie site with high plant species richness, ANPP was most sensitive to more extreme rainfall regimes (70% increase). These results highlight the inherent complexity in predicting how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to forecast novel climate conditions as well as the difficulties in extending inferences from single site experiments across biomes. Even with no change in annual precipitation amount, ANPP responses in a relatively uniform physiographic region differed in both magnitude and direction in response to within season changes in rainfall event size/frequency.     

Modelling surface fine fuel dynamics across climate gradients in eucalypt forests of south‐eastern Australia

An understanding of the effects of climate on fuel is required to predict future changes to fire. We explored the climatic determinants of variations in surface fine fuel parameters across forests (dry and wet sclerophyll plus rainforest) and grassy woodlands of south‐eastern Australia. Influences of vegetation type and climate on fuel were examined through statistical modelling for estimates of litterfall, decomposition and steady state fine litter fuel load obtained from published studies. Strong relationships were found between climate, vegetation type and all three litter parameters. Litterfall was positively related to mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature across all vegetation types. Decomposition was both negatively and positively related to mean annual temperature at low and high levels of warm‐season rainfall respectively. Steady state surface fine fuel load was generally, negatively related to mean annual temperature but mean annual rainfall had divergent effects dependent on vegetation type: i.e. positive effect in low productivity dry sclerophyll forests and grassy woodlands versus negative effect in high productivity wet sclerophyll forests and rainforests. The species composition of the vegetation types may have influenced decomposition and steady state fuel load responses in interaction with climate: e.g. lower decomposition rates in the low productivity vegetation types that occupied drier environments may be partially due to the predominance of species with sclerophyllous leaves. The results indicate that uncertain and highly variable future trends in precipitation may have a crucial role in determining the magnitude and direction of change in surface fine fuel load across south‐eastern Australia.     

Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning‐ignited fire seasons

Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet–dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897–2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder‐days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning‐ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.     

Fire and Grazing Change Herbaceous Species Composition and Reduce Beta Diversity in the Kalahari Sand System

After rainfall and soils, fire and herbivory are two of the main determinants of savanna ecosystems. Although the interactive effects of fire and herbivores on soil and vegetation are widely acknowledged few studies have addressed these two factors in concert, and none of the studies has focused on the Kalahari sand system. We experimentally studied how annual late dry season fires and grazing affect herbaceous plant species composition, above- and belowground biomass, and soil and grass nutrient concentrations in the nutrient-poor semi-arid Kalahari system in northern Botswana. Four treatments (fire, grazing, fire + grazing, and no-fire–no-grazing) were applied for two consecutive years in the late dry season. Plant species composition was affected by treatment and year. The no-fire–no-grazing treatment was distinctly different from all the other treatments in terms of species composition. Beta diversity was lower on the fire treatment and grazing treatment, but not where fire and grazing were combined. Fire and grazing alone or in combination did not have a substantial effect on biomass, soil and plant nutrients or plant species alpha diversity. Plant nitrogen was the only element that differed between treatments, with high concentrations on all the grazed treatments in the first year and low levels on the fire-alone treatment during the second year. The results show that fire and grazing mainly affect species composition and large-scale biodiversity patterns as indicated by the no-fire–no-grazing treatment being distinctly different from other treatments, suggesting the evolutionary adaptation of this dystrophic Kalahari sand system to herbivory and fire.     

Fire regime shifts affect bird species distributions

Aim Fire is a major driver of ecosystem structure and process, and shifts in fire regimes are implicated in the decline of many species. Shifting fire regimes have been documented around the world, and fire frequency and extent is predicted to increase in many areas because of changes in both climate and land management. Here, we evaluate how predicted increases in fire frequency are likely to impact on species distributions. Location The tropical savannas of northern Australia. Methods We developed distribution models for 44 bird species using the modelling algorithm Maxent. Our models incorporated bird locality records and environmental variables including climate, total fire frequency and the subset of fire frequency occurring late in the dry season. We investigated the effect of increasing total fire frequency and increasing fire late in the dry season, on species distributions by projecting species model algorithms onto scenarios of incrementally increased total fire frequency. Results The probability of presence for most species was higher when fire frequency late in the dry season was low. Species showed a mixed response to an overall increase in total fire frequency, with one‐third predicted to increase in distribution. However, almost all species (98%) showed a decrease in predicted range with increased late‐dry season fire, and species distribution area was generally negatively correlated with an increase in late‐dry season fire. Main conclusions Our study highlighted the array of responses of species to increasing fire frequency and suggested that increased fire frequency late in the dry season is detrimental to most savanna‐restricted bird species. The understanding of individual species’ preferences for particular fire frequencies is important for informed conservation planning.     

Productivity responses to altered rainfall patterns in a C<Subscript>4</Subscript>-dominated grassland

Rainfall variability is a key driver of ecosystem structure and function in grasslands worldwide. Changes in rainfall patterns predicted by global climate models for the central United States are expected to cause lower and increasingly variable soil water availability, which may impact net primary production and plant species composition in native Great Plains grasslands. We experimentally altered the timing and quantity of growing season rainfall inputs by lengthening inter-rainfall dry intervals by 50%, reducing rainfall quantities by 30%, or both, compared to the ambient rainfall regime in a native tallgrass prairie ecosystem in northeastern Kansas. Over three growing seasons, increased rainfall variability caused by altered rainfall timing with no change in total rainfall quantity led to lower and more variable soil water content (0–30 cm depth), a ~10% reduction in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), increased root to shoot ratios, and greater canopy photon flux density at 30 cm above the soil surface. Lower total ANPP primarily resulted from reduced growth, biomass and flowering of subdominant warm-season C₄ grasses while productivity of the dominant C₄ grass Andropogon gerardii was relatively unresponsive. In general, vegetation responses to increased soil water content variability were at least equal to those caused by imposing a 30% reduction in rainfall quantity without altering the timing of rainfall inputs. Reduced ANPP most likely resulted from direct effects of soil moisture deficits on root activity, plant water status, and photosynthesis. Altered rainfall regimes are likely to be an important element of climate change scenarios in this grassland, and the nature of interactions with other climate change elements remains a significant challenge for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change.     

Climate and the inter‐annual variability of fire in southern Africa: a meta‐analysis using long‐term field data and satellite‐derived burnt area data

Aim This study investigates inter‐annual variability in burnt area in southern Africa and the extent to which climate is responsible for this variation. We compare data from long‐term field sites across the region with remotely sensed burnt area data to test whether it is possible to develop a general model. Location Africa south of the equator. Methods Linear mixed effects models were used to determine the effect of rainfall, seasonality and fire weather in driving variation in fire extent between years, and to test whether the effect of these variables changes across the subcontinent and in areas more and less impacted by human activities. Results A simple model including rainfall and seasonality explained 40% of the variance in burnt area between years across 10 different protected areas on the subcontinent, but this model, when applied regionally, indicated that climate had less impact on year‐to‐year variation in burnt area than would be expected. It was possible to demonstrate that the relative importance of rainfall and seasonality changed as one moved from dry to wetter systems, but most noticeable was the reduction in climatically driven variability of fire outside protected areas. Inter‐annual variability is associated with the occurrence of large fires, and large fires are only found in areas with low human impact. Main conclusions This research gives the first data‐driven analysis of fire–climate interactions in southern Africa. The regional analysis shows that human impact on fire regimes is substantial and acts to limit the effect of climate in driving variation between years. This is in contrast to patterns in protected areas, where variation in accumulated rainfall and the length of the dry season influence the annual area burnt. Global models which assume strong links between fire and climate need to be re‐assessed in systems with high human impact.     

Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem

The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean‐type ecosystems may result from complex interactions between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, emphasizing a long‐term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase in fire frequency leads to shrub‐dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep drainage and runoff.     

Long-term effects of fire frequency and season on herbaceous vegetation in savannas of the Kruger National Park,South Africa

Aim s: The long-term effects of changing fire regimes on the herbaceous component of savannas are poorly understood but essential for understanding savanna dynamics. We present results from one of the longest running (>44 years) fire experiments in savannas, the experimental burn plots (EBPs), which is located in the Kruger National Park (South Africa) and encompasses four major savanna vegetation types that span broad spatial gradients of rainfall (450–700 mm) and soil fertility.Methods: Herbaceous vegetation was sampled twice in the EBPs using a modified step-point method, once prior to initiation of the experiment (1954) and again after 44–47 years. Different combinations of three fire frequency (1-, 2- and 3-year return intervals) and five season (before the first spring rains, after the first spring rains, mid-summer, late summer and autumn) treatments, as well as a fire exclusion treatment, were applied at the plot level (~7 ha each), with each treatment (n = 12 total) replicated four times at each of the four sites (n = 192 plots total). The effects of long-term alterations to the fire regime on grass community structure and composition were analyzed separately for each site.Important Findings: Over the 44+ years duration of the experiment, fires were consistently more intense on sites with higher mean annual rainfall (>570 mm), whereas fires were not as intense or consistent for sites with lower and more variable rainfall (<510 mm) and potentially higher herbivory due to greater soil fertility. Because the plots were open to grazing, the impacts of herbivory along with more variable rainfall regimes likely minimized the effects of fire for the more arid sites. As a consequence, fire effects on grass community structure and composition were most marked for the higher rainfall sites and generally not significant for the more arid sites. For the high-rainfall sites, frequent dry season fires (1- to 3-year return intervals) resulted in high grass richness, evenness and diversity, whereas fire exclusion and growing season fires had the lowest of these measures and diverged the most in composition as the result of increased abundance of a few key grasses. Overall, the long-term cumulative impacts of altered fire regimes varied across broad climatic and fertility gradients, with fire effects on the grass community decreasing in importance and herbivory and climatic variability likely having a greater influence on community structure and composition with increasing aridity and soil fertility.     

Convergence in growth responses of tropical trees to climate driven by water stress

Widely documented for temperate and cold forests in both hemispheres, variations in tree growth responses to climate along environmental gradients have rarely been investigated in the tropics. Seven tree‐ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete (Fabaceae) in the Cerrado tropical forests of Bolivia are used to determine the growth responses to climate along a precipitation gradient. Chronologies are distributed from the humid Guarayos forests (annual precipitation > 1600 mm) in the transition to the Amazonia to the dry‐mesic Chiquitos forests (annual precipitation < 1200 mm) in the proximity to the dry Chaco. On a large spatial scale, radial growth is positively influenced by rainfall and negatively by temperature at the end of the dry season. However, this regional pattern in climate‐tree growth relationship shows differences along the precipitation gradient. Relationships with climate are highly significant and extend over longer periods of the year in sites with low rainfall and extremely severe dry seasons. At wet sites, larger water soil capacity and endogenous forest dynamics partially mask the direct influence of climate on tree growth. Stronger similarities in tree‐growth responses to climate occur between sites in the dry Central Chiquitos and in the transition to the Guarayos forests. In contrast, the relationships show fewer similarities between sites in the humid Guarayos. We conclude that growth responses to climate in the tropics are more similar between sites with limited rainfall and severe and prolonged dry seasons. Our study points to a convergence in the patterns of growth responses of tropical trees to climate, modulated by scarce rainfall and marked seasonality. The negative impact of water deficits on tree physiological processes induces not only the documented reduction in forest species richness, but also a convergence in tree‐growth responses to climate in dry tropical forests.     

Forage nutritive quality in the Serengeti ecosystem: the roles of fire and herbivory

Fire and herbivory are important determinants of nutrient availability in savanna ecosystems. Fire and herbivory effects on the nutritive quality of savanna vegetation can occur directly, independent of changes in the plant community, or indirectly, via effects on the plant community. Indirect effects can be further subdivided into those occurring because of changes in plant species composition or plant abundance (i.e., quality versus quantity). We studied relationships between fire, herbivory, rainfall, soil fertility, and leaf nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and sodium (Na) at 30 sites inside and outside of Serengeti National Park. Using structural equation modeling, we asked whether fire and herbivory influences were largely direct or indirect and how their signs and strengths differed within the context of natural savanna processes. Herbivory was associated with enhanced leaf N and P through changes in plant biomass and community composition. Fire was associated with reduced leaf nutrient concentrations through changes in plant community composition. Additionally, fire had direct positive effects on Na and nonlinear direct effects on P that partially mitigated the indirect negative effects. Key mechanisms by which fire reduced plant nutritive quality were through reductions of Na-rich grasses and increased abundance of Themeda triandra, which had below-average leaf nutrients.     

Soil extracellular enzyme activities correspond with abiotic factors more than fungal community composition

Soil extracellular enzymes are the proximal drivers of decomposition. However, the relative influence of climate, soil nutrients and edaphic factors compared to microbial community composition on extracellular enzyme activities (EEA) is poorly resolved. Determining the relative effects of these factors on soil EEA is critical since changes in climate and microbial species composition may have large impacts on decomposition. We measured EEA from five sites during the growing season in March and 17 sites during the dry season in July throughout southern California and simultaneously collected data on climate, soil nutrients, soil edaphic factors and fungal community composition. The concentration of carbon and nitrogen in the soil and soil pH were most related to hydrolytic EEA. Conversely, oxidative EEA was mostly related to mean annual precipitation. Fungal community composition was not correlated with EEA at the species, genus, family or order levels. The hyphal length of fungi was correlated with EEA during the growing season while relative abundance of taxa within fungal phyla, in particular Chytridiomycota, was correlated with the EEA of beta-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, acid phosphatase and beta-xylosidase in the dry season. Overall, in the dry season, 35.3 % of the variation in all enzyme activities was accounted for by abiotic variables, while fungal composition accounted for 27.4 %. Because global change is expected to alter precipitation regimes and increase nitrogen deposition in soils, EEA may be affected, with consequences for decomposition.     

Effects of climate on occurrence and size of large fires in a northern hardwood landscape: historical trends,forecasts, and implications for climate change in Témiscamingue,Québec

Questions: What climate variables best explain fire occurrence and area burned in the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest of Canada? How will climate change influence these climate variables and thereby affect the occurrence of fire and area burned in a deciduous forest landscape in Témiscamingue, Québec, Canada? Location: West central Québec and the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We first used an information‐theoretic framework to evaluate the relative role of different weather variables in explaining occurrence and area burned of large fires (>200 ha, 1959‐1999) across the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest region. Second, we examined how these weather variables varied historically in Témiscamingue and, third, how they may change between the present and 2100 according to different scenarios of climate change based on two Global Circulation Models. Results: Mean monthly temperature maxima during the fire season (Apr‐Oct) and weighted sequences of dry spells best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Between 1910 and 2004, mean monthly temperature maxima in Témiscamingue showed no apparent temporal trend, while dry spell sequences decreased in frequency and length. All future scenarios show an increase in mean monthly temperature maxima, and one model scenario forecasts an increase in dry spell sequences, resulting in a slight increase in forecasted annual area burned. Conclusion: Despite the forecasted increase in fire activity, effects of climate change on fire will not likely affect forest structure and composition as much as natural succession or harvesting and other disturbances, principally because of the large relative difference in area affected by these processes.     

Liana abundance and diversity increase with rainfall seasonality along a precipitation gradient in Panama

In tropical regions, rainfall gradients often explain the abundance and distribution of plant species. For example, many tree and liana species adapted to seasonal drought are more abundant and diverse in seasonally-dry forests, characterized by long periods of seasonal water deficit. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) is commonly used to explain plant distributions across climate gradients. However, the relationship between MAP and plant distribution is often weak, raising the question of whether other seasonal precipitation patterns better explain plant distributions in seasonally-dry forests. In this study, we examine the relationship between liana abundance and multiple metrics of seasonal and annual rainfall distribution to test the hypothesis that liana density and diversity increase with increasing seasonal drought along a rainfall gradient across the isthmus of Panama. We found that a normalized seasonality index, which combines MAP and the variability of monthly rainfall throughout the year, was a significant predictor of both liana density and species richness, whereas MAP, rainfall seasonality and the mean dry season precipitation (MDP) were far weaker predictors. The strong response of lianas to the normalized seasonality index indicates that, in addition to the total annual amount of rainfall, how rainfall is distributed throughout the year is an important determinant of the hydrological conditions that favor liana proliferation. Our findings imply that changes in annual rainfall and rainfall seasonality will determine the future distribution and abundance of lianas. Models that aim to predict future plant diversity, distribution, and abundance may need to move beyond MAP to a more detailed understanding of rainfall variability at sub-annual timescales.     

Fire severity mediates climate‐driven shifts in understorey community composition of black spruce stands of interior Alaska

Question: How do pre‐fire conditions (community composition and environmental characteristics) and climate‐driven disturbance characteristics (fire severity) affect post‐fire community composition in black spruce stands? Location: Northern boreal forest, interior Alaska. Methods: We compared plant community composition and environmental stand characteristics in 14 black spruce stands before and after multiple, naturally occurring wildfires. We used a combination of vegetation table sorting, univariate (ANOVA, paired t‐tests), and multivariate (detrended correspondence analysis) statistics to determine the impact of fire severity and site moisture on community composition, dominant species and growth forms. Results: Severe wildfires caused a 50% reduction in number of plant species in our study sites. The largest species loss, and therefore the greatest change in species composition, occurred in severely burned sites. This was due mostly to loss of non‐vascular species (mosses and lichens) and evergreen shrubs. New species recruited most abundantly to severely burned sites, contributing to high species turnover on these sites. As well as the strong effect of fire severity, pre‐fire and post‐fire mineral soil pH had an effect on post‐fire vegetation patterns, suggesting a legacy effect of site acidity. In contrast, pre‐fire site moisture, which was a strong determinant of pre‐fire community composition, showed no relationship with post‐fire community composition. Site moisture was altered by fire, due to changes in permafrost, and therefore post‐fire site moisture overrode pre‐fire site moisture as a strong correlate. Conclusions: In the rapidly warming climate of interior Alaska, changes in fire severity had more effect on post‐fire community composition than did environmental factors (moisture and pH) that govern landscape patterns of unburned vegetation. This suggests that climate change effects on future community composition of black spruce forests may be mediated more strongly by fire severity than by current landscape patterns. Hence, models that represent the effects of climate change on boreal forests could improve their accuracy by including dynamic responses to fire disturbance.     

西南干旱对哀牢山常绿阔叶林凋落物及叶面积指数的影响

为探讨2010年初西南干旱对这一地区原生植被林冠和凋落物量的影响,以及这一地区凋落物量和气候条件之间的关系,对比研究了哀牢山亚热带常绿阔叶林2010年和一般年份的凋落物特征以及各层的叶面积指数,并分析了凋落物量和气候因子之间的关系.2010年凋落物总量和往年相比无显著差异,但是叶凋落总量、旱季凋落物总量、旱季叶凋落量为历年来最高,其中旱季叶凋落物量比一般年份平均高35.2％ (0.81 t/hm2).而2010年附生苔蘚年凋落量为历年来最低.2010年最旱月的乔木层和灌木层叶面积指数和2005同期相比无显著差异,但是草本层叶面积指数却极显著低于2005年同期.因此,2010年初西南干旱尽管使哀牢山常绿阔叶林旱季落叶增加,但还没有到显著影响冠层叶面积指数的程度.而草本层和附生苔藓的生长则受到了干旱事件的显著影响.此外,哀牢山常绿阔叶林年总凋落量和年降水量显著正相关,而和年均温却不相关,表明该亚热带森林凋落物量主要由降水而非温度决定.     

Plant functional traits along environmental gradients in seasonally dry and fire‐prone ecosystem

Questions: How does the abundance and richness of plant assemblages with different functional (regeneration and nutrient acquisition) traits vary with fire regime, moisture availability and substrate fertility? What is the role of different functional traits in maintaining plant diversity under changing environmental conditions in seasonally dry and fire‐prone environments? Location: Southwest Western Australia. Methods: Plant species abundance and soil nutrients were determined at 16 forest sites with variable fire histories across an aridity gradient. All plant species were classified based on their functional traits as (1) perennial or annual, (2) ectomycorrhizal, arbuscular mycorrhizal, ericoid mycorrhizal, orchid mycorrhizal, proteoid or other non‐mycorrhizal, (3) resprouters or seeder, and (4) nitrogen fixer or non‐fixer. We used a multivariate (fourth‐corner) technique to simultaneously test the significance and direction of the relationship between each of these traits and fire frequency, fire interval length, aridity, and soil N, P and C fractions. Results: The functional response of the vegetation to fire regime was minor and restricted to annual species, which comprised only ～4% of taxa. Proteoid and ectomycorrhizal species dominated over species with arbuscular and orchid mycorrhizal roots, N‐fixers dominated over non‐fixers, and seeders dominated over resprouters when N fertility was low but organic labile P was high. Further, proteoid and ectomycorrhizal species richness increased with aridity, while arbuscular mycorrhizal species richness decreased. Conclusions: While the functional composition of southwest Australian vegetation is largely insensitive to changes in fire regime, nutrient acquisition and, to a lesser extent, regeneration traits provide mechanisms for the vegetation community to adjust to changes in resource availability. Thus, diversity responses to environmental change in seasonally dry and fire‐prone ecosystems are likely to be primarily mediated by the composition of nutrient acquisition traits in the vegetation community.     

Seed size and response to rainfall patterns in annual grasslands: 16 years of permanent plot data

Question: Are seed size and plant size linked to species responses to inter‐annual variations in rainfall and rainfall distribution during the growing season in annual grasslands? Location: A 16‐year data set on species abundance in permanent plots 15 km north of Madrid in a Quercus ilex subsp. ballota dehesa. Methods: At species level, a GLM was used to analyse the effects of various rainfall indices (total autumn rainfall, early autumn rainfall and spring drought) on species abundance residuals with respect to time and topography. We also assessed the importance of seed size and plant size in the species responses at community level using species as data points. Seed mass and maximum stem length were used as surrogates for seed size and plant size, respectively. Results: Seed mass and plant size may explain some of the fluctuations in the floristic composition of annual species associated with autumn rainfall patterns. Species that are more abundant in dry autumns have greater seed mass than those species that are more abundant in wet autumns. Early autumn rainfall seems to favour larger plants. Conclusions: Our empirical results support the hypothesis that autumn rainfall patterns affect the relative establishment capacity of small and large seedlings in annual species.     

Decreased precipitation exacerbates the effects of sea level on coastal dune ecosystems in open ocean islands

The alteration of fresh and marine water cycling is likely to occur in coastal ecosystems as climate change causes the global redistribution of precipitation while simultaneously driving sea‐level rise at a rate of 2–3 mm yr^?1. Here, we examined how precipitation alters the ecological effects of ocean water intrusion to coastal dunes on two oceanic carbonate islands in the Bahamas. The approach was to compare sites that receive high and low annual rainfall and are also characterized by seasonal distribution (wet and dry season) of precipitation. The spatial and temporal variations in precipitation serve as a proxy for conditions of altered precipitation which may occur via climate change. We used the natural abundances of stable isotopes to identify water sources (e.g., precipitation, groundwater and ocean water) in the soil–plant continuum and modeled the depth of plant water uptake. Results indicated that decreased rainfall caused the shallow freshwater table on the dune ecosystem to sink and contract towards the inland, the lower freshwater head allowed ocean water to penetrate into the deeper soils, while shallow soils became exceedingly dry. Plants at the drier site that lived nearest to the ocean responded by taking up water from the deeper and consistently moist soil layers where ocean water intruded. Towards the inland, decreased rainfall caused the water table to sink to a depth that precluded both recharge to the upper soil layers and access by plants. Consequently, plants captured water in more shallow soils recharged by infrequent rainfall events. The results demonstrate dune ecosystems on oceanic islands are more susceptible to ocean water intrusion when annual precipitation decreases. Periods of diminished precipitation caused drought conditions, increased exposure to saline marine water and altered water‐harvesting strategies. Quantifying species tolerances to ocean water intrusion and drought are necessary to determine a threshold of community sustainability.     

Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems

Plant phenology is strongly controlled by climate and has consequently become one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing climate change. We used a dataset of more than 200 000 records for six phenological events of 29 perennial plant species monitored from 1943 to 2003 for a comprehensive assessment of plant phenological responses to climate change in the Mediterranean region. Temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were studied together during a complete annual cycle before phenological events to determine their relative importance and potential seasonal carry‐over effects. Warm and dry springs under a positive phase of NAO advance flowering, leaf unfolding and fruiting dates and lengthen the growing season. Spatial variability of dates (range among sites) was also reduced during warm and dry years, especially for spring events. Climate during previous weeks to phenophases occurrence had the greatest impact on plants, although all events were also affected by climate conditions several months before. Immediate along with delayed climate effects suggest dual triggers in plant phenology. Climatic models accounted for more than 80% of variability in flowering and leaf unfolding dates, and in length of the growing season, but for lower proportions in fruiting and leaf falling. Most part of year‐to‐year changes in dates was accounted for temperature, while precipitation and NAO accounted for <10% of dates' variability. In the case of flowering, insect‐pollinated species were better modelled by climate than wind‐pollinated species. Differences in temporal responses of plant phenology to recent climate change are due to differences in the sensitivity to climate among events and species. Spring events are changing more than autumn events as they are more sensitive to climate and are also undergoing the greatest alterations of climate relative to other seasons. In conclusion, climate change has shifted plant phenology in the Mediterranean region.