应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响

为定量分析潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对流域径流变化的影响,应用SWAT模型对流域上游至下游的大阁、戴营和下会3个水文站径流进行模拟,采用情景法分析径流对土地利用和气候变化的响应。在模型校准期和验证期采用两个参数:p因子和r因子来评价模拟的拟合度及不确定性。结果表明,3个水文站在校准期和验证期的p因子值分别为:0.70和0.77,0.87和0.82,0.92和0.78,r因子值分别为0.63和0.90,0.97和0.79,0.88和0.92,评价整个流域模拟有效性的模型目标函数g最佳值为0.66,说明该模型对潮河流域的产水量模拟具有很好的适用性。以1981—1990年为基准期,1991—2000年流域土地利用变化造成年径流量减少了4.10 mm,而气候变化导致年径流增加了29.68 mm;2001—2009年土地利用变化造成年径流量减少2.98mm,气候变化造成年径流量减少了14.30 mm。与1999年土地利用条件模拟径流值相比,几种极端情景法模拟分析结果表明:灌木林地情景下年径流增加了158.2%,草地情景下年径流增加了4.1%,林地和耕地情景下年径流分别减少23.7%和41.7%;不同气候变异情景模拟结果显示,径流对降水的变化敏感性高于对温度变化的敏感性,降水每增加10%,径流平均增加23.9%。温度每增加12%,径流平均减少6%。因此,在气候变化背景下,优化土地利用结构与方式是实现流域水资源科学管理的途径之一。     

近40年东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量及其生境变化评估

生物多样性是生态平衡维持和生态过程与功能实现的基础,东北地区是我国乃至全球生物多样性最为丰富的地区之一。为研究和探讨东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量与生境变化之间的关系,利用物种调查数据和生境遥感观测数据,以地球生命力指数、生态系统面积和破碎度等指示性指标,综合评估了近40年东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量及其生境变化。结果表明:1970—2010年,东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量下降了近70.1%,森林脊椎动物种群数量减少了近80.9%,草原和荒漠生态系统脊椎动物种群数量增加了近180.9%。1980—2010年,湿地物种种群数量减少了近75.7%。1980—2015年期间,农业和城镇建设用地增幅分别达到25.2%和32.3%,不断挤占和蚕食着自然生态空间,致使自然生境面积不断减少,减幅约为8.0%。自然生境景观破碎化程度总体呈现加重趋势,尤其是森林生境,破碎化指数增加约42.7%。但是,2005年之后,自然生境景观破碎化程度加重趋势趋缓,与2005年之后脊椎动物种群数量减少幅度减缓趋势一致。森林砍伐、人口增长、城镇化、交通建设等造成的自然生态系统破碎度增加和栖息地质量下降对大型兽类影响比较显著。     

Eco-environmental changes assessment at the Chiufenershan landslide area caused by catastrophic earthquake in Central Taiwan

A large-scale landslide, caused by the catastrophic earthquake on 21 September 1999, occurred at the Chiufenershan area in Central Taiwan. Multi-temporal SPOT satellite images coupled with a self-organizing map neural network, terrain analysis, Universal Soil Loss Equation, and landscape patch indicators were used to assess eco-environmental changes of the denudation sites, such as changes of the post-quake landslide, terrain displacement, soil erosion, and landscape ecology. The extracted area soon after the earthquake was 215.68 ha. From 1999 through 2006, the denudation area declined to 113.36 ha, which indicates that about 47.44% of the landslide has been restored. Based on terrain analysis for the denudation sites, the debris volumes at the collapsed and deposited areas are 31,896,667 m³ and 39,537,067 m³, respectively. The large amount of debris blocked two streams, the Satsikenghsi and the Chiutsaihuhsi, to form two landslide-dammed lakes. The annual erosion depth soon after the earthquake reached 22.07 mm, about 3.59 times as high as pre-quake. Without vegetation cover on the topsoil, the denudation sites became high-erosion areas during subsequent typhoon seasons. However, with landslide restoration, annual soil erosion depth prediction has reduced to 13.54 mm, about 2.21 times as high as pre-quake. In addition, the assessment of landscape patch indicators also points out the heterogeneity and the degree of richness of the landscape due to vegetation recovery at the landslide area. The analyzed results show that nature itself has a robust ability to restore its original landscape and mitigate disaster impacts for the destroyed eco-environment.     

Introduction to the Special Section on Alternative Futures for Great Basin Ecosystems

Natural and anthropogenic processes are causing extensive and rapid ecological, social, and economic changes in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide. Nowhere are these changes more evident than in the Great Basin of the western United States, a region of 400,000 km² that largely is managed by federal agencies. Major drivers of ecosystems and human demographics of the Great Basin include human population growth, grazing by domestic livestock, extraction of minerals, development and production of energy, changes in fire and other disturbance regimes, and invasion of non-native annual plants. Exploration of alternative futures may increase the ability of management and policy to maximize the system's resistance and resilience to changes in climate, disturbance regimes, and anthropogenic perturbations. This special section examines the issues facing the Great Basin and then provides examples of approaches to predicting changes in land cover and avifaunal distributions under different management scenarios. Future sustainability of the Great Basin's natural and human systems requires strong, collaborative partnerships among research and management organizations that are capable of obtaining public support and financial resources and developing effective policies and institutional mechanisms.     

黑龙江省20世纪森林变化及对氧气释放量的影响

随着对大气环境质量研究的深入,大气中氧气含量变化也引起了关注。森林是固碳释氧的重要生态系统,黑龙江省近百年来,森林面积减少了37.163%,估算由此导致的森林氧气释放量变化,对研究大气氧气含量变化具有重要意义。以黑龙江省1900年、1949年、1986年和2009年为时间断面,采用C-FIX模型及碳氧平衡方法,模拟并分析了20世纪黑龙江省森林氧气释放量及其变化。结果表明:(1)黑龙江省20世纪森林面积减少了106667.570 km2,森林覆盖率减少了23.568%。除樟子松(Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica)林、针阔混交林面积有所增加外,其它树种的森林面积均减少,其中云冷杉(Picea asperata and Abies nephrolepis)林及红松(Pinus koraiensis)林面积减少超过80%,空间上以松嫩平原及三江平原减少最为显著;(2)森林年氧气释放量百年来减少了5621.560万t,减少近三分之一,其空间变化明显,西南部森林氧气释放量由百年前的最高区域变为最低区域,三江平原释放氧气的森林区域明显减少;(3)百年来各行政区森林年氧气释放量除伊春微弱增加外,其余均呈减少趋势。其中大庆市、齐齐哈尔市减少显著,减少了90%以上;(4)控制实验表明,森林面积变化导致黑龙江省区域森林年氧气释放量减少了50%。人类活动引起的森林面积减少,是导致黑龙江省森林氧气释放量减少的主要因素。     

砚瓦川流域河川基流变化规律及其驱动因素

基流是黄河径流的重要补给来源,目前大部分研究都集中在黄河流域径流变化规律上,而对维持河道基本流量和生态环境安全方面发挥着重要作用的基流却研究较少。因此,基于黄河中游砚瓦川流域1981-2016年的水文、气象及植被资料,选用9种数值模拟法对基流进行分割并分析其适用性,利用Mann-Kendall法和滑动t检验法对基流进行了趋势分析和突变点检验,并定性和定量的探讨了气候变化和植被变化对流域河川基流变化的影响。结果表明：（1）在各种基流分割方法中,Lyne-Hollick滤波法的计算结果精度较高,且分割结果比较符合实际日基流变化规律,因此更适用于研究区的基流估算;（2）流域多年平均河川基流量和基流指数BFI （基流量与河川流量的比值）分别为0.152 m³/s和0.58,两者在年际上均呈现极显著的减少趋势（P<0.01）,且分别于1993年和2006年附近发生了突变;（3）基流量与潜在蒸散发量相关性最强,流域降水量、潜在蒸散发量及NDVI的变化对基流量变化的贡献率分别为-99.1%、113.3%和85.8%,可见潜在蒸散发量和NDVI的增加是引起基流量减少的主要原因,而基流指数与NDVI相关性最强,且呈负相关关系,流域降水量、潜在蒸散发量及NDVI的变化对基流指数变化的贡献率分别为41.3%、-27.7%和86.5%,这说明流域NDVI的增加对流域基流指数的降低起到了主导作用。     

Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate‐change‐related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community‐level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold‐adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm‐adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool‐adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm‐adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold‐adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food‐web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.     

陕北气候变化与生态植被变迁

分析了128万年以来陕北气候变化及其生态植被变迁。结果表明,陕北黄土高原气候经历了多次冷、暖、干、湿的周期变化。陕北植被变迁在地质时期以及历史时期早期,主要由气候条件所控制,植被类型随气候的冷暖干湿变化而变迁。随着人类活动的加剧,气候条件不再是影响植被变迁的唯一因素,人类活动对植被的影响愈来愈明显。明清时期,气候冷干,旱灾频繁．陕北生态环境脆弱,大规模垦殖和滥烧使自然植被迅速减少,陕北自然植被遭到毁灭性破坏。20世纪50年代,陕北逐步开始生态环境治理,在对生态环境治理的同时,又对部分地区自然植被进行破坏。20世纪80年代以后,生态环境总体上趋于好转。     

Introduction: A perspective from the humanities-science boundary

The articles in this special issue range across such influences on climate as solar emissions, orbital precession, atmosphere, oceans, and precipitation, and generally approach, each in some context, human implications of these phenomena. The common underlying theme of all of the papers is the effect the phenomena have on radiation balance as measured by global average temperature. This introductory paper undertakes a formulation of radiation balance theory that makes it serviceable to students of regional science. The objective is to go beyond inference of cause and effect by correlation to causal accounts of cause and effect through regional climatic and cultural processes. This is accomplished primarily by revisualization of the energy system with regions as dependent spatiotemporal entities, and temporally through a protocol for regional episode definition.This special issue ofHuman Ecology consists of the American Anthropological Association Invited Symposium on Global Climate Change.     

Change in the distribution of a member of the strand line community: the seaweed fly (Diptera: Coelopidae)

Abstract.  1. Coastal organisms are predicted to be particularly susceptible to the impact of global warming. In this study the distribution and relative abundance of two coastal invertebrates, Coelopa frigida (Fabricius) and C. pilipes are investigated.
2.  Coelopa pilipes has a more southerly distribution than C. frigida , and prefers a warmer climate. Coelopa pilipes is less resistant to sub-zero temperatures than C. frigida and its northerly distribution is probably limited by cold winter days.
3. The most recent distribution map of C. frigida and C. pilipes in northern Europe was published a decade ago and showed the northerly extent of the distribution of C. pilipes reaching the north coast of mainland Scotland but its complete absence from the Western and Northern Isles.
4.  C. pilipes has now spread throughout the Western Isles and the Orkney Islands but is still absent from Shetland. There has also been an increase in the relative frequency of C. pilipes at sites harbouring coelopids on the British mainland. A similar pattern of distribution change along the west coast of Sweden is reported.
5. It is proposed that these changes have occurred primarily as a result of global warming and in particular due to the recent increase in winter temperatures. A number of other indirect effects may have also contributed to these changes, including a probable change in macroalgae distribution. The implications of these changes for the wrack bed ecosystem and at higher trophic levels are considered.     

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on‐going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916–2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate‐driven species range shifts during the 20th century.     

The dynamics of the dune vegetation on the Polish Baltic coast

This paper deals with the Baltic coastline in Poland. Features of the climate, geomorphology, substratum, soils and vegetation are outlined. The historical forest succession is based on the results of palynological studies of fossil soils. The present-day dynamics of the plant communities are examined from the viewpoint of primary succession, regression, regeneration and secondary succession. The primary succession on moving dunes is described with particular reference to deflation fields. Attention is drawn to the spatial changes in the communities from the 16th to the 20th century as a result of natural and human factors. This study shows that during the 19th and 20th centuries and especially in the last 25 years, the dynamics of the dunes and their vegetation have been much reduced, owing to the widespread stabilization of the substratum by forests and the ongoing abrasion of the coastal dunes.     

Identification of the gene for disaggregatase from Methanosarcina mazei

The gene sequences encoding disaggregatase (Dag), the enzyme responsible for dispersion of cell aggregates of Methanosarcina mazei to single cells, were determined for three strains of M. mazei (S-6^T, LYC and TMA). The dag genes of the three strains were 3234 bp in length and had almost the same sequences with 97% amino acid sequence identities. Dag was predicted to comprise 1077 amino acid residues and to have a molecular mass of 120 kDa containing three repeats of the DNRLRE domain in the C terminus, which is specific to the genus Methanosarcina and may be responsible for structural organization and cell wall function. Recombinant Dag was overexpressed in Escherichia coli and preparations of the expressed protein exhibited enzymatic activity. The RT-PCR analysis showed that dag was transcribed to mRNA in M. mazei LYC and indicated that the gene was expressed in vivo. This is the first time the gene involved in the morphological change of Methanosarcina spp. from aggregate to single cells has been identified.     

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.     

Effects of climate change on different geographical populations of the cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera,Noctuidae)

The effects of climate change on pest phenology and population size are highly variable. Understanding the impacts of localized climate change on pest distribution and phenology is helpful for improving integrated pest management strategies. Here, the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Maigaiti County, south Xinjiang, and Shawan County, north Xinjiang, China, were analyzed using a 29‐year dataset at lower latitudes and a 23‐year dataset at higher latitudes to determine the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The results showed that all generations of H. armigera at both sites showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming. Abrupt changes in phenology and population number occurred after abrupt temperature changes. Climate change had a greater effect on the phenology of H. armigera at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes and led to a greater increase in population size at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes; the temperature increase at higher latitudes will cause a greater increase in the adult moth population size in the future compared to that at lower latitudes; and abrupt changes in the phenology, temperature increase, and population size at lower latitudes occurred earlier than those at higher latitudes. Thus, it is necessary to develop sustainable management strategies for Helicoverpa armigera at an early stage.     

Interdecadal change in the deep Puget Sound benthos

Data from quantitative samples of the benthos at a 200-m site in central Puget Sound, collected twice yearly in most years between 1963 and 1992, were evaluated to determine the extent to which species composition in a continental-shelf depth community exhibits long-term persistence. Study results showed that the most abundant species were consistently present over the 30-year period. However, measures of species composition (e.g., similarity, diversity) reveal a subtle, gradual change in the community over time. Among the changes are (1) multi-year periods of greatly increased abundance of the common species; (2) an overall increase in the total abundance of the benthic community beginning in the mid-1970s; (3) periods of increased abundance, during the late 1970s and early 1980s, of two species that are tolerant of organic enrichment; and (4) the steady decline in abundance of the large burrowing echinoderm, Brisaster latifrons as a consequence of the lack of recruitment to the site since 1970. Despite the conspicuousness of these changes, there are no observed environmental factors that readily explain them. Circumstantial evidence suggests that climate-related change in Puget Sound circulation beginning in the mid-1970s, organic enrichment associated with a nearby large source of primary-treated sewage, and the influence of changes in the abundance of the large echinoderms on the smaller species are potential agents of change. The principle reasons for our inability to identify causes of long-term change in the Puget Sound benthos are (a) inconsistent long-term monitoring of environmental variables, (b) the lack of quantitative information about long-term changes in plankton and fish populations, (c) lack of knowledge of specific predator/prey and competitive interactions in soft bottom benthos, (d) unknown influence of moderate levels of contamination on biota; and (e) lack of understanding of possible linkages between climate regime shifts and fluctuations in local biological populations.     

Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?

Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze‐free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human‐dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south‐east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.     

Mycorrhizal fungal abundance is affected by long-term climatic manipulations in the field

Climate change treatments – winter warming, summer drought and increased summer precipitation – have been imposed on an upland grassland continuously for 7 years. The vegetation was surveyed yearly. In the seventh year, soil samples were collected on four occasions through the growing season in order to assess mycorrhizal fungal abundance. Mycorrhizal fungal colonisation of roots and extraradical mycorrhizal hyphal (EMH) density in the soil were both affected by the climatic manipulations, especially by summer drought. Both winter warming and summer drought increased the proportion of root length colonised (RLC) and decreased the density of external mycorrhizal hyphal. Much of the response of mycorrhizal fungi to climate change could be attributed to climate‐induced changes in the vegetation, especially plant species relative abundance. However, it is possible that some of the mycorrhizal response to the climatic manipulations was direct – for example, the response of the EMH density to the drought treatment. Future work should address the likely change in mycorrhizal functioning under warmer and drier conditions.     

Temporal lags in observed and dark diversity in the Anthropocene

Understanding biodiversity changes in the Anthropocene (e.g. due to climate and land‐use change) is an urgent ecological issue. This important task is challenging because global change effects and species responses are dependent on the spatial scales considered. Furthermore, responses are often not immediate. However, both scale and time delay issues can be tackled when, at each study site, we consider dynamics in both observed and dark diversity. Dark diversity includes those species in the region that can potentially establish and thrive in the local sites’ conditions but are currently locally absent. Effectively, dark diversity connects biodiversity at the study site to the regional scales and defines the site‐specific species pool (observed and dark diversity together). With dark diversity, it is possible to decompose species gains and losses into two space‐related components: one associated with local dynamics (species moving from observed to dark diversity and vice versa) and another related to gains and losses of site‐specific species pool (species moving to and from the pool after regional immigration, regional extinction or change in local ecological conditions). Extinction debt and immigration credit are useful to understand dynamics in observed diversity, but delays might happen in species pool changes as well. In this opinion piece we suggest that considering both observed and dark diversity and their temporal dynamics provides a deeper understanding of biodiversity changes. Considering both observed and dark diversity creates opportunities to improve conservation by allowing to identify species that are likely to go regionally extinct as well as foreseeing which of the species that newly arrive to the region are more likely to colonize local sites. Finally, by considering temporal lags and species gains and losses in observed and dark diversity, we combine phenomena at both spatial and temporal scales, providing a novel tool to examine biodiversity change in the Anthropocene.