Niche conservatism and the potential for the crayfish Procambarus clarkii to invade South America

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The past, present and future of childhood malaria mortality in Africa

During the past few years, there has been a historic series of declarations of renewed commitment to malaria control in Africa. Whether the burden of malaria is increasing in Africa is a moot point. This article attempts to re-construct the evidence for the trends in childhood mortality as a result of Plasmodium falciparum infection over the last century in Africa.     

African rainforests: past,present and future

The rainforests are the great green heart of Africa, and present a unique combination of ecological, climatic and human interactions. In this synthesis paper, we review the past and present state processes of change in African rainforests, and explore the challenges and opportunities for maintaining a viable future for these biomes. We draw in particular on the insights and new analyses emerging from the Theme Issue on ‘African rainforests: past, present and future’ of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. A combination of features characterize the African rainforest biome, including a history of climate variation; forest expansion and retreat; a long history of human interaction with the biome; a relatively low plant species diversity but large tree biomass; a historically exceptionally high animal biomass that is now being severely hunted down; the dominance of selective logging; small-scale farming and bushmeat hunting as the major forms of direct human pressure; and, in Central Africa, the particular context of mineral- and oil-driven economies that have resulted in unusually low rates of deforestation and agricultural activity. We conclude by discussing how this combination of factors influences the prospects for African forests in the twenty-first century.     

CellML: its future, present and past

Advances in biotechnology and experimental techniques have lead to the elucidation of vast amounts of biological data. Mathematical models provide a method of analysing this data; however, there are two issues that need to be addressed: (1) the need for standards for defining cell models so they can, for example, be exchanged across the World Wide Web, and also read into simulation software in a consistent format and (2) eliminating the errors which arise with the current method of model publication. CellML has evolved to meet these needs of the modelling community. CellML is a free, open-source, eXtensible markup language based standard for defining mathematical models of cellular function. In this paper we summarise the structure of CellML, its current applications (including biological pathway and electrophysiological models), and its future development—in particular, the development of toolsets and the integration of ontologies.     

The times are changing: temporal shifts in patterns of fish invasions in central European fresh waters

This study examines the invasion history of alien fish species based on exhaustive national data sets on fish invasions of two contiguous central European countries (Germany and Austria). Fifteen alien fish species are currently established in both countries, constituting 14 and 17% of the total freshwater fish fauna of Germany and Austria, respectively. In both countries, six alien species are present, but not established. The status of five alien species in Germany and three species in Austria remains unknown. Accumulation rates of alien fish species have increased in recent decades with >50% of them reported after 1971. North America and Asia were the primary sources of alien fish species in Germany and Austria up to the 1980s, whereas European species of Ponto‐Caspian origin dominate now. Fisheries (including aquaculture) and the animal trade were responsible for most earlier introductions, whereas waterways were the main pathway for recent invaders. The extent of the spatial distribution of alien species was positively correlated with residence time, i.e. the time elapsed since the first national record. Different thermal preferences of early invaders (mostly coldwater species) and new invaders (typically warmwater adapted) may benefit the latter in the face of climate change. It is concluded that new challenges for alien fish management arise and that ecosystem‐based approaches as endorsed by the E.U. Water Framework Directive (maintaining or restoring good ecological status of rivers and streams) should become the centrepiece of river management in Europe.     

Conservation management for the past, present and future

Conservation managers are in the unenviable position of trying to conserve and restore biodiversity, without having a definitive timeframe to restore it to. Currently, managers around the world focus on various timeframes from recent to historical, but without a definitive target, countless conservation problems arise. Managers need to determine what constitutes a native species, which species to reintroduce, whether selective breeding should be implemented to resurrect supposedly extinct organisms, targets on population levels, whether assisted migration should be employed when climate change alters the environmental envelope of a species surrounded by human-altered landscapes, and how to manage for stochasticity and evolutionary processes. Without having definitive goals to target, these issues are difficult/impossible to address. It is only by discussing these important issues that some consensus will be attained that allow us to stop responding to crises and start predicting the future of biodiversity and plan and respond accordingly.     

Incursion and excursion of Antarctic biota: past, present and future

Aim To investigate the major paradigms of intense isolation and little anthropogenic influence around Antarctica and to examine the timings and scales of the modification of the southern polar biota. Location Antarctica and surrounding regions. Methods First, mechanisms of and evidence for long‐term isolation are reviewed. These include continental drift, the development of a surrounding deep‐water channel and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). They also include levels of endemism, richness and distinctiveness of assemblages. Secondly, evidence for past and modern opportunities for species transport are investigated. Comparative levels of alien establishments are also examined around the Southern Ocean. Discussion On a Cenozoic time‐scale, it is clear that Gondwana's fragmentation led to increasing geographical isolation of Antarctica and the initiation of the ACC, which restricted biota exchange to low levels while still permitting some movement of biota. On a shorter Quaternary time‐scale, the continental ice‐sheet, influenced by solar (Milankovitch) cycles, has expanded and contracted periodically, covering and exposing terrestrial and continental shelf habitats. There were probably refugia for organisms during each glacial maxima. It is also likely that new taxa were introduced into Antarctica during cycles of ice sheet and oceanic front movement. The current situation (a glacial minimum) is not ‘normal’; full interglacials represent only 10% of the last 430 ka. On short (ecological) time‐scales, many natural dispersal processes (airborne, oceanic eddy, rafting and hitch‐hiking on migrants) enable the passage of biota to and from Antarctica. In recent years, humans have become influential both directly by transporting organisms and indirectly by increasing survival and establishment prospects via climate change. Main conclusions Patterns of endemism and alien establishment are very different across taxa, land and sea, and north vs. south of the Polar Frontal Zone. Establishment conditions, as much as transport, are important in limiting alien establishment. Three time‐scales emerge as important in the modification of Antarctica's biota. The natural ‘interglacial’ process of reinvasion of Antarctica is being influenced strongly by humans.     

Climate change opens new frontiers for marine species in the Arctic: Current trends and future invasion risks

Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing nonindigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Sixteen of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, 19 and 14 records, respectively. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan‐Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to global change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change—invasive species and climate change.     

Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions

Antarctica is experiencing significant ecological and environmental change, which may facilitate the establishment of non‐native marine species. Non‐native marine species will interact with other anthropogenic stressors affecting Antarctic ecosystems, such as climate change (warming, ocean acidification) and pollution, with irreversible ramifications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We review current knowledge of non‐native marine species in the Antarctic region, the physical and physiological factors that resist establishment of non‐native marine species, changes to resistance under climate change, the role of legislation in limiting marine introductions, and the effect of increasing human activity on vectors and pathways of introduction. Evidence of non‐native marine species is limited: just four marine non‐native and one cryptogenic species that were likely introduced anthropogenically have been reported freely living in Antarctic or sub‐Antarctic waters, but no established populations have been reported; an additional six species have been observed in pathways to Antarctica that are potentially at risk of becoming invasive. We present estimates of the intensity of ship activity across fishing, tourism and research sectors: there may be approximately 180 vessels and 500+ voyages in Antarctic waters annually. However, these estimates are necessarily speculative because relevant data are scarce. To facilitate well‐informed policy and management, we make recommendations for future research into the likelihood of marine biological invasions in the Antarctic region.     

Distribution of tsetse and ticks in Africa: past, present and future

The current concern over the effects of global warming has rekindled interest in the neglected topic of vector distribution. In order to predict the future, however, we must first comprehend the past and present. In this review, David Rogers and Sarah Randolph discuss the alternative biological and statistical approaches to understanding the present-day distributions of vectors, and make predictions about how these might change with global warming.     

Founder populations and the current status of exotic parrots in South Africa

Parrots (families Psittacidae and Cacatuidae) are one of the most threatened taxa of birds, with a combination of threats to wild populations, including capture for the cage bird market, habitat modification and destruction, persecution, disease, and threats from introduced species. As a result of the group's popularity as a cage bird, and the transport of vast numbers of individuals across the globe (both legally and illegally), the establishment of populations beyond their natural ranges has likely been enhanced. This review reports on c. 30 parrot species that have been observed outside of their natural ranges in South Africa, most likely derived, and supplemented, from both intentional and unintentional releases. Of these, the Rose-ringed Parakeet Psittacula krameri and at least one Agapornis species have become established as breeding wild populations. Like other invasive species they may pose threats to local biodiversity; however, all are strongly associated with major urban centres where significant changes to natural biota have already occurred.     

Chitosomes: past, present and future

José Ruiz-Herrera's discovery that chitin microfibrils could be made by a fungal extract paved the way for elucidating the intracellular location of chitin synthetase. In collaboration with Charles Bracker, chitosomes were identified as the major reservoir of chitin synthetase in fungi. Unique in size, buoyant density, and membrane thickness, chitosomes were found in a wide range of fungi. Their reversible dissociation into 16S subunits is another unique property of chitosomes. These 16S subunits are the smallest molecular entities known to retain chitin synthetase activity. Further dissociation leads to complete loss of activity. From studies with secretory mutants, yeast researchers concluded that chitosomes were components of the endocytosis pathway. However, key structural and enzymatic characteristics argue in favor of the chitosome being poised for exocytotic delivery rather than endocytotic recycling. The chitosome represents the main vehicle for delivering chitin synthetase to the cell surface. An immediate challenge is to elucidate chitosome ontogeny and the role of proteins encoded by the reported chitin synthetase genes in the structure or function of chitosomes. The ultimate challenge would be to understand how the chitosome integrates with the cell surface to construct the organized microfibrillar skeleton of the fungal cell wall.     

Biodiversity: past, present and future

On 12-15 May 2011, a diverse group of students, researchers and practitioners from across Canada and around the world met in Banff, Alberta, to discuss the many facets of biodiversity science at the 6th Annual Meeting of the Canadian Society for Ecology and Evolution.     

Ranavirus: past, present and future

Emerging infectious diseases are a significant threat to global biodiversity. While historically overlooked, a group of iridoviruses in the genus Ranavirus has been responsible for die-offs in captive and wild amphibian, reptile and fish populations around the globe over the past two decades. In order to share contemporary information on ranaviruses and identify critical research directions, the First International Symposium on Ranaviruses was held in July 2011 in Minneapolis, MN, USA. Twenty-three scientists and veterinarians from nine countries examined the ecology and evolution of ranavirus-host interactions, potential reservoirs, transmission dynamics, as well as immunological and histopathological responses to infection. In addition, speakers discussed possible mechanisms for die-offs, and conservation strategies to control outbreaks.     

Life: past, present and future

Molecular methods of taxonomy and phylogeny have changed the way in which life on earth is viewed; they have allowed us to transition from a eukaryote-centric (five-kingdoms) view of the planet to one that is peculiarly prokarote-centric, containing three kingdoms, two of which are prokaryotic unicells. These prokaryotes are distinguished from their eukaryotic counterparts by their toughness, tenacity and metabolic diversity. Realization of these features has, in many ways, changed the way we feel about life on earth, about the nature of life past and about the possibility of finding life elsewhere. In essence, the limits of life on this planet have expanded to such a degree that our thoughts of both past and future life have been altered. The abilities of prokaryotes to withstand many extreme conditions has led to the term extremophiles, used to describe the organisms that thrive under conditions thought just a few years ago, to be inconsistent with life. Perhaps the most extensive adaptation to extreme conditions, however, is represented by the ability of many bacteria to survive nutrient conditions not compatible with eukaryotic life. Prokaryotes have evolved to use nearly every redox couple that is in abundance on earth, filling the metabolic niches left behind by the oxygen-using, carbon-eating eukaryotes. This metabolic plasticity leads to a common feature in physically stratified environments of layered microbial communities, chemical indicators of the metabolic diversity of the prokaryotes. Such 'metabolic extremophily' forms a backdrop by which we can view the energy flow of life on this planet, think about what the evolutionary past of the planet might have been, and plan ways to look for life elsewhere, using the knowledge of energy flow on earth.