气候速度影响下中国周边海域鲨鱼保护优先区识别

鲨鱼在气候变化和人类活动等因素的影响下面临着种群衰退的风险,开展鲨鱼保护优先区研究是鲨鱼保护行动的重要工作.将气候速度引入鲨鱼保护优先区的识别过程,旨在阐明中国周边海域鲨鱼现状保护成效和保护空缺,并预测气候速度影响下的鲨鱼保护优先区空间格局及其变化趋势.以集成物种分布模型模拟的146种鲨鱼栖息地作为保护对象,以2015年至2100年两种气候变化情景下的气候速度作为保护的机会成本,基于系统保护规划理论模拟现状和未来情景下的鲨鱼保护优先区选址方案.研究结果表明：（1）长江口以南至台湾海峡和北部湾近岸海域为鲨鱼多样性分布的主要区域,台湾海峡区域亦为珍稀濒危物种的重要分布区;（2）在两种气候情景下,南海中南部将面临较高的气候变化风险,而长江口以南至珠江口的近岸海域气候速度均相对较低,提示了这些区域或能成为气候变化影响下的生物避难所;（3）现有保护区仅保护了1.33%的海域和不到4%的鲨鱼物种,尚存在较大的保护空缺.当保护海域比例提升至10%时,可覆盖绝大多数鲨鱼物种.而当比例提升至30%时,珍稀濒危物种的栖息地将得到有效保护;（4）气候变化影响下保护优先区选址将发生不同程度的变化,尤其是在中国南海区域,如在保护规划时兼顾气候速度,可在满足相似保护目标的前提下减少保护优先区内25%以上的气候压力,以使其具有较强的应对气候变化潜力。     

Global climate change will severely decrease potential distribution of the East Asian coldwater fish Rhynchocypris oxycephalus (Actinopterygii, Cyprinidae)

Global climate change has been suggested to cause decrease of distribution area of many species. However, this has not been tested for East Asian inland coldwater fish. Chinese minnow (Rhynchocypris oxycephalus) is a small typical coldwater fish, which is endemic to East Asia and generally inhabits stream headwaters. Due to its occurrence in temperate south China, there is growing concern about its future fate in the face of global warming. In this study, we employed maximum entropy approach to analyze how distribution of this species would be impacted by future climate change. We collected data of 310 independent distribution points and 20 environmental variables, and conducted modeling under three general circulation models assuming two gas emission scenarios for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results showed that the Min temperature of coldest month was the most important climatic variable for potential distribution of the Chinese minnow. Modeling predicted geographical distribution of the Chinese minnow would shrink over time and become much more limited in all the situations especially in South-eastern China, and there would be little suitable habitat left in this region by 2080s. Our results confirm that climate change clearly poses a severe threat to the Chinese minnow, and we suggest that conservation efforts should focus on lower temperature areas within the current range, because these areas will remain relatively cool and may be still suitable for the Chinese minnow even under the most drastic climate change scenarios.     

未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响

茶是对气候变化敏感的重要经济作物, 评价全球气候变化对茶分布和生产的影响对相关国家经济发展和茶农的生计至关重要。本研究基于全球858个茶分布点和6个气候因子数据, 利用物种分布模型预测全球茶的潜在适宜分布区及其在2070年的不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下的变化。结果表明: 当前茶在五大洲均有适宜分布区, 主要集中在亚洲、非洲和南美洲, 并且最冷季平均温和最暖季降水量主导了茶的分布。预计2070年, 茶的适宜分布区变化在不同的大洲、国家和气候情景间将存在差异。具体来说, 茶的适宜分布区总面积将会减少, 减少的区域主要位于低纬度地区, 而中高纬度地区的适宜分布区将扩张, 由此可能导致茶的适宜分布区向北移动; 重要的产茶国中, 阿根廷、缅甸、越南等茶适宜分布区面积会减少57.8%-95.8%, 而中国和日本的适宜分布面积则会增加2.7%-31.5%。未来全球新增的适宜分布区中, 约有68%的地区土地覆盖类型为自然植被, 因此可能导致新茶树种植园的开垦和自然植被及生物多样性保护产生冲突。     

The projected effects of climatic and vegetation changes on the distribution and diversity of Southeast Asian bats

Southeast‐Asia (SEA) constitutes a global biodiversity hotspot, but is exposed to extensive deforestation and faces numerous threats to its biodiversity. Climate change represents a major challenge to the survival and viability of species, and the potential consequences must be assessed to allow for mitigation. We project the effects of several climate change scenarios on bat diversity, and predict changes in range size for 171 bat species throughout SEA. We predict decreases in species richness in all areas with high species richness (>80 species) at 2050–2080, using bioclimatic IPCC scenarios A2 (a severe scenario, continuously increasing human population size, regional changes in economic growth) and B1 (the ‘greenest’ scenario, global population peaking mid‐century). We also predicted changes in species richness in scenarios that project vegetation changes in addition to climate change up to 2050. At 2050 and 2080, A2 and B1 scenarios incorporating changes in climatic factors predicted that 3–9% species would lose all currently suitable niche space. When considering total extents of species distribution in SEA (including possible range expansions), 2–6% of species may have no suitable niche space in 2050–2080. When potential vegetation and climate changes were combined only 1% of species showed no changes in their predicted ranges by 2050. Although some species are projected to expand ranges, this may be ecologically impossible due to potential barriers to dispersal, especially for species with poor dispersal ability. Only 1–13% of species showed no projected reductions in their current range under bioclimatic scenarios. An effective way to facilitate range shift for dispersal‐limited species is to improve landscape connectivity. If current trends in environmental change continue and species cannot expand their ranges into new areas, then the majority of bat species in SEA may show decreases in range size and increased extinction risk within the next century.     

基于最大熵值法生态位模型（Maxent）的三种实蝇潜在适生性分布预测

本研究首先对3种重要生态位模型BIOCLIM, DOMAIN和Maxent（基于最大熵值原理模型）的分布预测精确度进行了分析和比较, 再结合分布点记录以及一系列环境数据图层对3种重要外来入侵性检疫害虫（葫芦寡鬃实蝇Dacus bivittatus、埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇D. ciliatus和西瓜寡鬃实蝇D. vertebratus）的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测和分析。在模型预测精确度的比较过程中, 3种评估指标（ROC/AUC, Kappa, TSS）均显示Maxent拥有最好的预测结果和最好的运行性能。由Maxent对葫芦寡鬃实蝇、埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇和西瓜寡鬃实蝇的预测结果显示, 这3种实蝇在中美洲、南美洲、东南亚和澳大利亚沿岸的广大地区在总体上具有相似的分布区域。相对而言, 埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇在全球范围具有最为广泛的分布区域, 除前述地区外, 其潜在适生区还包括地中海沿岸、沙特阿拉伯、也门、安曼和伊朗南部的大片地区, 这也意味着在3种寡鬃实蝇中, 它能忍受变化幅度最广的生态、环境条件。在中国, 云南和海南都极适宜于3种实蝇的生存, 同时广东南部及台湾的部分地区也是它们的潜在适生区。基于Maxent的预测结果显示, 相对而言, 埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇在中国范围也具有最为广泛的分布区域, 除前述省份和地区外, 四川、贵州和西藏的南部部分地区以及中国南部的部分沿海地区, 也都是它的潜在适生区。综合所得出的预测结果, 3种寡鬃实蝇从境外传入广东并在此定殖的风险可能性是实际存在的。Jackknife分析显示, 温度以及与此有关的环境因子对于3种实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式和分布情况都有极大的影响, 并需要进一步的研究。     

Climate Change and the Distribution of Neotropical Red-Bellied Toads (Melanophryniscus,Anura, Amphibia): How to Prioritize Species and Populations?

We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis, and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri, and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.     

Geographical potential of Argentine ants (Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change

Determining the spread and potential geographical distribution of invasive species is integral to making invasion biology a predictive science. We assembled a dataset of over 1000 occurrences of the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), one of the world's worst invasive alien species. Native to central South America, Argentine ants are now found in many Mediterranean and subtropical climates around the world. We used this dataset to assess the species' potential geographical and ecological distribution, and to examine changes in its distributional potential associated with global climate change, using techniques for ecological niche modelling. Models developed were highly predictive of the species' overall range, including both the native distributional area and invaded areas worldwide. Despite its already widespread occurrence, L. humile has potential for further spread, with tropical coastal Africa and southeast Asia apparently vulnerable to invasion. Projecting ecological niche models onto four general circulation model scenarios of future (2050s) climates provided scenarios of the species' potential for distributional expansion with warming climates: generally, the species was predicted to retract its range in tropical regions, but to expand at higher latitude areas.     

南海永兴岛的壁虎,兼记二新记录种

2017年12月对南海永兴岛的爬行动物进行了短期调查,发现3种壁虎科Gekkonidae动物,分别是截趾虎Gehyra mutilata、原尾蜥虎Hemidactylus bowringii和疣尾蜥虎H.frenatus。其中,截趾虎和原尾蜥虎为中国南海岛屿的新记录。     

Northern range shift may be due to increased competition induced by protection of species rather than to climate change alone

Few long‐term, large‐scale studies have been conducted about the factors likely to explain changes in species abundance and distribution in winter. Range shifts are generally attributed to the climate change or land use. This study shows that other factors such as species protection and the ensuing increasing numbers of individuals and competition could be involved. It details the progressive conquest of France, the most important European wintering area for great cormorant, in three decades as its legal protection by the EU Birds Directive. It is based on 13 exhaustive national counts. Cormorants first occupied the farthest areas (Atlantic and Mediterranean lagoons, then larger rivers) from the main‐core European breeding area, with only progressive occupancy of the northeastern part later. This strategy mainly resulted from competition for optimal available feeding areas. Suboptimal areas (smaller wetlands harboring smaller night roosts, colder northeastern French areas) and progressive fragmentation of large night roosts into smaller, better located ones minimized flight costs. The coldest areas were occupied last, once other areas were saturated. Their occupancy was favored locally by the global climate change, but it played a minor role in these strategies. Both factors induced only a small NNE shift of the weighted centroid range of the wintering population (2.6 km/year) which mainly resulted from competition (buffer effect). Only the 2009 cold wave decreased the total number of wintering cormorants at the national scale, once the population had probably reached the carrying capacity of the country, while the previous cold waves had a minor effect. Comparatively, there was a greater SSE range shift of the weighted centroid of the breeding population (4.66 km/year). Range shifts of other recently protected species have been attributed to the sole climate change in the literature, but competition due to the saturation of usual wintering or breeding areas should be considered too.     

Mummified fossil of Keteleeria from the Late Pleistocene of Maoming Basin,South China,and its phytogeographical and paleoecological implications

Keteleeria is a small genus of Pinaceae now mainly restricted to eastern Asia. Although this genus has been documented with a wide distribution in the geologic record of Europe, North America, and Asia, its history in low‐latitude areas (including South China) has remained obscure. In this paper, a fossil wood of Keteleeria sp. is described from the Late Pleistocene (29–27 ka BP) of the Maoming Basin, South China. This wood is the most ancient megafossil evidence of Keteleeria within the modern distribution area of this genus. The fossil records of Keteleeria suggests that this thermophyllous genus migrated into South China by the Middle Pleistocene escaping from glacial cooling and became widespread over this region in the Late Pleistocene beginning from the interglacial stage preceding the Last Glacial Maximum. The analysis of growth rings in the fossil wood and its comparison with those of modern Keteleeria davidiana (Bertrand) Beissner indicates that in the Late Pleistocene of Maoming Basin (29–27 ka BP) there was a humid climate with less pronounced seasonality of precipitation than that seen in the subtropical monsoonal climate of modern northeastern Vietnam. Apparently, the Maoming Basin was influenced by interglacial regime with summer–monsoon circulation. The previously proposed method to distinguish between evergreen and deciduous conifers based on growth ring anatomy, is not reliable because of the wide variance and ambiguity in its results.     

Climate determinants of breeding and wintering ranges of lesser kestrels in Italy and predicted impacts of climate change

Climate warming would theoretically create conditions for the breeding range expansion of pseudo‐steppe Mediterranean and long‐distance migrant species and provide the possibility for these to overwinter in the same breeding areas. However, contemporary changes in rainfall regimes might have negative effects on the climate suitability and in turn, shrink species potential range. The lesser kestrel Falco naumanni is highly sensitive to rainfall oscillations and has recently extended its Italian breeding range towards northern latitudes and increasing its wintering records. We modelled the effects of temperature and rainfall on current and future climate suitability for lesser kestrels in both the breeding and wintering periods by using MaxEnt. Models were based on the distribution of 298 colonies and 40 wintering records. Future climate suitability was assessed under eight different scenarios. Spring rainfall amount resulted as the main determinant of breeding climate suitability, so its predicted reduction will determine a shrinkage in suitable areas (–42.10% in 2050; –32.07% in 2070). Specifically, the 66.05% of Italian colonies will be outside the climatically suitable area by 2050. However wide areas, suitable under current climate conditions, are still not occupied by lesser kestrel and allow the potential expansion of its Italian breeding range in the short term. Temperature seasonality mainly determined the species’ winter climate suitability, which is overall predicted to boost in the next decades (+145.03% in 2050; and +123.91% in 2070). All but one future scenarios predicted a northward shift of about 40 km for both breeding and wintering climate suitability. Despite its recent expansion, we have found that climate change will pose conservation concerns for the Italian breeding population of lesser kestrels. Indeed, changes in non‐climate factors will also outline the future suitability of the Italian range for lesser kestrels in both seasons with effects that might both strengthen or mitigate climate effects.     

Climatic niche of the Saker Falcon Falco cherrug: predicted new areas to direct population surveys in Central Asia

Accurate species distribution data across remote and extensive geographical areas are difficult to obtain. Here, we use bioclimatic envelope models to determine climatic constraints on the distribution of the migratory Saker Falcon Falco cherrug to identify areas in data-deficient regions that may contain unidentified populations. Sakers live at low densities across large ranges in remote regions, making distribution status difficult to assess. Using presence-background data and eight bioclimatic variables within a species distribution modelling framework, we applied MaxEnt to construct models for both breeding and wintering ranges. Occurrence data were spatially filtered and climatic variables tested for multicollinearity before selecting best fit models using the Akaike information criterion by tuning MaxEnt parameters. Model predictive performance tested using the continuous Boyce index (B) was high for both breeding (B_TEST = 0.921) and wintering models (B_TEST = 0.735), with low omission rates and minimal overfitting. The Saker climatic niche was defined by precipitation in the warmest quarter in the breeding range model, and mean temperature in the wettest quarter in the wintering range model. Our models accurately predicted areas of highest climate suitability and defined the climatic constraints on a wide-ranging rare species, suggesting that climate is a key determinant of Saker distribution across macro-scales. We recommend targeted population surveys for the Saker based on model predictions to areas of highest climatic suitability in key regions with distribution knowledge gaps, in particular the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in western China. Further applications of our models could identify protected areas and reintroduction sites, inform development conflicts, and assess the impact of climate change on distributions.     

Sympatric spawning but allopatric distribution of Anguilla japonica and Anguilla marmorata: temperature- and oceanic current-dependent sieving

Anguilla japonica and Anguilla marmorata share overlapping spawning sites, similar drifting routes, and comparable larval durations. However, they exhibit allopatric geographical distributions in East Asia. To clarify this ecological discrepancy, glass eels from estuaries in Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and China were collected monthly, and the survival rate of A. marmorata under varying water salinities and temperatures was examined. The composition ratio of these 2 eel species showed a significant latitude cline, matching the 24 °C sea surface temperature isotherm in winter. Both species had opposing temperature preferences for recruitment. A. marmorata prefer high water temperatures and die at low water temperatures. In contrast, A. japonica can endure low water temperatures, but their recruitment is inhibited by high water temperatures. Thus, A. japonica glass eels, which mainly spawn in summer, are preferably recruited to Taiwan, China, Korea, and Japan by the Kuroshio and its branch waters in winter. Meanwhile, A. marmorata glass eels, which spawn throughout the year, are mostly screened out in East Asia in areas with low-temperature coastal waters in winter. During summer, the strong northward currents from the South China Sea and Changjiang River discharge markedly block the Kuroshio invasion and thus restrict the approach of A. marmorata glass eels to the coasts of China and Korea. The differences in the preferences of the recruitment temperature for glass eels combined with the availability of oceanic currents shape the real geographic distribution of Anguilla japonica and Anguilla marmorata, making them "temperate" and "tropical" eels, respectively.     

Long-distance travellers stopover for longer: a case study with spoonbills staying in North Iberia

Long-distance migration is widespread among birds, connecting breeding and wintering areas through a set of stopover localities where individuals refuel and/or rest. The extent of the stopover is critical in determining the migratory strategy of a bird. Here, we examined the relationship between minimum length of stay of PVC-ringed birds in a major stopover site and the remaining flight distance to the overwintering area in the Eurasian spoonbill (Platalea l. leucorodia) during four consecutive autumn migrations. We also analysed the potential effect of timing (arrival date), as well as the role of experience in explaining stopover duration of spoonbills. Overall, birds wintering in Africa, and facing long-distance travel from the stopover site (ca. 3,000 km) stay for longer (2.7 ± 0.4 days) than Iberian winterers (1.5 ± 0.2 days) that perform a much shorter migration (ca. 800 km). These differences were consistent between years. Stopover duration was not significantly affected by the age of the bird. However, there was a significant reduction as migration advanced. Our results suggest that spoonbills develop different stopover strategies depending on the expected distance to the wintering grounds. Adults, especially long-distance migratory ones, could reduce the potential negative effects of density-dependence processes by avoiding stopover at the end of the migration period. These findings are of significant relevance for understanding differences in migratory behaviour within single populations, especially for declining waterbirds, as well as stress the relevance of preserving stopover localities for the conservation of intraspecific diversity in migratory species.     

Morphological and molecular data confirm species assignment and dispersal of the genus Ligia (Crustacea: Isopoda: Ligiidae) along northeastern coastal China and East Asia

The morphological traits and mitochondrial genes of sympatric sea slaters from the genus Ligia were analysed from samples collected along northeastern coastal China and adjacent coastal East Asia to assign the species and to obtain interpretations of their distributions. Using 338 sequences and 199 diagnoses of 16S polymerase chain reaction‐restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR‐RFLP) from 331 specimens sampled from 26 localities, and homological sequences from counterparts from South Korea and the west coast of the USA, we assigned these taxa into two distinct species, Ligia exotica and Ligia cinerascens. Both species are recovered as two monophyletic clades in the robust phylogenetic hypothesis presented here. The northern boundaries of these species in China and the Korean peninsula are more southern than those of counterparts in Japan. Ligia exotica in northeastern coastal China is further split into two geographical subclades (B1 and B2), coexisting near 35°N. The distribution range of L. cinerascens covers the whole range of L. exotica subclade B1. Counterparts in Japan show a similar pattern. Oceanic rafting, shipping, damming and planting of seaweed are proposed as the media for the contemporary connectivity among populations of Ligia species inhabiting coastal China. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London     

Consequences of warming up a hotspot: species range shifts within a centre of bee diversity

Aim Bees are the most important pollinators of flowering plants and essential ecological keystone species contributing to the integrity of most terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we examine the potential impact of climate change on bees’ geographic range in a global biodiversity hotspot. Location South Africa with a focus on the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) diversity hotspot. Methods  Geographic ranges of 12 South African bee species representing dominant distribution types were studied, and the climate change impacts upon bees were examined with A2 and B2 climate scenarios of HadCM3 model, using MaxEnt for species distribution modelling. Results The predicted levels of climate change‐induced impacts on species ranges varied from little shifts and range expansion of 5–50% for two species to substantial range contractions between 32% and 99% in another six species. Four species show considerable range shifts. Bees of the winter rainfall area in the west of South Africa generally have smaller range sizes than in the summer rainfall area and generally show eastward range contractions toward the dry interior. Bee species prevalent in summer rainfall regions show a tendency for a south‐easterly shift in geographic range. Main conclusions The bee fauna of the CFR is identified as the most vulnerable to climate change due to the high level of endemism, the small range sizes and the island‐like isolation of the Mediterranean‐type climate region at the SW tip of Africa. For monitoring climate change impact on bees, we suggest to establish observatories in the coastal plains of the west coast that are predicted to be worst affected and areas where persistence of populations is most likely. Likely impacts of climate change on life history traits of bees (phenology, sociality, bee‐host plant synchronization) are discussed but require further investigation.     

The future of invasive African grasses in South America under climate change

Climate change will promote substantial effects on the distribution of invasive species. Here, I used an ensemble of bioclimatic envelope models (Gower Distance, Chebyshev Distance, and Mahalanobis Distance) to forecast climatically suitable areas of South America for 13 invasive African grass species under future climate conditions (year 2050). Under current climatic conditions, the areas with the potential for the highest invasive species richness are located mostly in the tropical climates of South America, except for the Amazon region. In the year 2050, the overall pattern of invasive species richness will not change considerably, and increases in northeastern Amazon and portions of the temperate regions of South America are predicted.     

气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的青海云杉潜在分布格局模拟

青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)是我国青藏高原东北缘特有树种,在维系我国西北地区生态平衡、水土保持、水源涵养和生物多样性等方面发挥着重要作用。基于其分布范围内的69个地理分布样点,利用最大熵(Maxent)模型对现实气候条件下青海云杉的潜在分布及其分布的主导气候因子进行分析,同时结合3种大气环流模型模拟青海云杉在3种气候变化情景(温室气候排放量不同)下未来2050s和2080s潜在分布区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型对青海云杉潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,所有模型的平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC测试值)均高于0.99;Jackknife检验和气候因子响应曲线表明年最低降雨量是限制青海云杉分布的主导因子;当前青海云杉的潜在分布区主要集中于青海东部、甘肃东南部、宁夏大部分地区、西藏东部、四川西部山区以及陕西、新疆和内蒙古部分地区。在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布总面积与当前相比变化不明显,但不同适生等级的潜在分布面积变化较大,其中,中度适生区和低度适生区受气候增温影响显著,中度增温下这些区域在2080s的面积明显增大,而高度适生区(核心分布)则在所有增温情景下均呈缩小趋势。同时,在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布区有向北移动趋势,但其心分布区域(高度适生区)仍然以青海东部、甘肃北部为主,无明显变迁趋势。从气候因素角度考虑,本研究表明未来气候变化情景下,青海云杉依然在西部高山地区,特别是作为我国重要生态屏障的祁连山、贺兰山等山区具有重要的经济价值并将持续其生态服务功能。     

Effects of climate change on the distribution of hoverfly species (Diptera: Syrphidae) in Southeast Europe

Climate change presents a serious threat to global biodiversity. Loss of pollinators in particular has major implications, with extirpation of these species potentially leading to severe losses in agriculture and, thus, economic losses. In this study, we forecast the effects of climate change on the distribution of hoverflies in Southeast Europe using species distribution modelling and climate change scenarios for two time-periods. For 2041–2060, 19 analysed species were predicted to increase their areas of occupancy, with the other 25 losing some of their ranges. For 2061–2080, 55% of species were predicted to increase their area of occupancy, while 45% were predicted to experience range decline. In general, range size changes for most species were below 20%, indicating a relatively high resilience of hoverflies to climate change when only environmental variables are considered. Additionally, range-restricted species are not predicted to lose more area proportionally to widespread species. Based on our results, two distributional trends can be established: the predicted gain of species in alpine regions, and future loss of species from lowland areas. Considering that the loss of pollinators from present lowland agricultural areas is predicted and that habitat degradation presents a threat to possible range expansion of hoverflies in the future, developing conservation management strategy for the preservation of these species is crucial. This study represents an important step towards the assessment of the effects of climate changes on hoverflies and can be a valuable asset in creating future conservation plan, thus helping in mitigating potential consequences.     

Harpacticoida (Crustacea: Copepoda) of the South China Sea: faunistic and biogeographical analysis

Based on original and on published databases, a compendium of the Harpacticoida of the South China Sea is presented, and the distributional range of species is discussed. Up to now, a total of 77 harpacticoid species belonging to 57 genera and 19 families have been recorded in this region. Twenty of these species, collected in Nha-Trang Bay (Vietnam), have not hitherto been described. The most speciose families are the Miraciidae (20 species) and the Laophontidae (9 species). Thirteen families were represented by one to three species only and six families by four to seven species. A brief comparison is presented between the harpacticoid fauna of the South China Sea, the Philippine Islands, the inner Malayan Archipelago (Java, Flores, Banda, and Celebes Seas), New Guinea, the Yellow Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The overall similarity between the species lists of these areas was observed to be extremely low (average value of Simpson index is 0.15 ± 0.08). The lists of planktonic species from the different areas showed the highest similarity. The lowest similarity (highest endemism) was observed between the lists of interstitial species. It is likely that one of the factors determining the differences between the faunas is the poor knowledge about the composition and distribution of benthic harpacticoids in tropical latitudes.