Utility of the Framingham risk score to predict the presence of coronary atherosclerosis in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

The prevalence of ischemic heart disease and atherosclerosis is increased in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In the general population, but not in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus, the Framingham risk score identifies patients at increased cardiovascular risk and helps determine the need for preventive interventions. We examined the hypothesis that the Framingham score is increased and associated with coronary-artery atherosclerosis in patients with RA. The Framingham score and the 10-year cardiovascular risk were compared among 155 patients with RA (89 with early disease, 66 with long-standing disease) and 85 control subjects. The presence of coronary-artery calcification was determined by electron-beam computed tomography. The Framingham score was compared in patients with RA and control subjects, and the association between the risk score and coronary-artery calcification was examined in patients. Patients with long-standing RA had a higher Framingham score (14 [11 to 18]) (median [interquartile range]) compared to patients with early RA (11 [8 to 14]) or control subjects (12 [7 to 14], P < 0.001). This remained significant after adjustment for age and gender (P = 0.015). Seventy-six patients with RA had coronary calcification; their Framingham risk score was higher (14 [12 to 17]) than that of 79 patients without calcification (10 [5 to 14]) (P < 0.001). Furthermore, a higher Framingham score was associated with a higher calcium score (odds ratio [OR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12 to 1.29, P < 0.001), and the association remained significant after adjustment for age and gender (OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.29, P = 0.03). In conclusion, a higher Framingham risk score is independently associated with the presence of coronary calcification in patients with RA.     

Activated TLR signaling in atherosclerosis among women with lower Framingham risk score: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

Background

Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Traditional risk factors can be used to identify individuals at high risk for developing CVD and are generally associated with the extent of atherosclerosis; however, substantial numbers of individuals at low or intermediate risk still develop atherosclerosis.

Results

A case-control study was performed using microarray gene expression profiling of peripheral blood from 119 healthy women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort aged 50 or above. All participants had low (<10%) to intermediate (10% to 20%) predicted Framingham risk; cases (N = 48) had coronary artery calcium (CAC) score >100 and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) >1.0 mm, whereas controls (N = 71) had CAC<10 and IMT <0.65 mm. We identified two major expression profiles significantly associated with significant atherosclerosis (odds ratio 4.85; P<0.001); among those with Framingham risk score <10%, the odds ratio was 5.30 (P<0.001). Ontology analysis of the gene signature reveals activation of a major innate immune pathway, toll-like receptors and IL-1R signaling, in individuals with significant atherosclerosis.

Conclusion

Gene expression profiles of peripheral blood may be a useful tool to identify individuals with significant burden of atherosclerosis, even among those with low predicted risk by clinical factors. Furthermore, our data suggest an intimate connection between atherosclerosis and the innate immune system and inflammation via TLR signaling in lower risk individuals.     

Cis-vaccenic acid and the Framingham risk score predict chronic kidney disease: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

IntroductionData on the associations of fatty acids with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are sparse.Materials and methodsWe performed a cross-sectional study of 2792 men and women from the MESA cohort of African–American, Caucasian, Chinese and Hispanic adults without known cardiovascular disease. Plasma phospholipid fatty acid proportions were associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the albumin/creatinine ratio.ResultsCis-vaccenic acid (18:1n?7), adjusted for other fatty acids using multivariate logistic regression (CI: 1.0–1.4), and step-wise logistic regression (CI: 1.02–1.42), was positively associated with reduced eGFR. The Framingham Risk Score, when adjusting for fatty acid proportions and demographic factors, was positively associated with CKD as measured by the eGFR and the albumin/creatinine ratio.Discussion and conclusionsPlasma phospholipid proportions of the 18 carbon monounsaturated cis-vaccenic acid {18:1n?7}) and the Framingham Risk Score are associated with kidney function. The potential role of 18:1n?7 in the development of CKD warrants further investigation.     

Use of a baseline risk score to identify the risk of serious infectious events in patients with rheumatoid arthritis during certolizumab pegol treatment

Background

The risk of serious infectious events (SIEs) is increased in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The aim of this study was to develop an age-adjusted comorbidity index (AACI) to predict, using baseline characteristics, the SIE risk in patients with RA treated with certolizumab pegol (CZP).

Methods

Data of CZP-treated patients with RA were pooled from the RAPID1/RAPID2 randomized controlled trials (RCT CZP) and their open-label extensions (All CZP). Predictors of the first SIE were examined using multivariate Cox models. The AACI was developed by assigning specific weights to patient age and comorbidities on the basis of relative SIE risk. SIE rates were predicted using AACI score and baseline glucocorticoid use, and they were compared with observed rates. The percentage of patients in each SIE risk group achieving low disease activity (LDA)/remission was examined at 1 year of treatment.

Results

Among 1224 RCT CZP patients, 40 reported ≥?1 SIE (incidence rate [IR] 5.09/100 patient-years [PY]), and 201 of 1506 All CZP patients reported ≥?1 SIE (IR 3.66/100 PY). Age ≥?70 years, diabetes mellitus, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/asthma made the greatest contributions to AACI score. SIE rates predicted using AACI and glucocorticoid use at baseline showed good agreement with observed SIE rates across low-risk and high-risk groups. At 1 year, more high-risk All CZP patients than low-risk All CZP patients reported SIEs (IR 8.4/100 PY vs. IR 3.4/100 PY). Rates of LDA/remission were similar between groups.

Conclusions

AACI and glucocorticoid use were strong baseline predictors of SIE risk in CZP-treated patients with RA. Predicted SIE risk was not associated with patients’ likelihood of clinical response. This SIE risk score may provide a valuable tool for clinicians when considering the risk of infection in individual patients with RA.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00152386 (registered 7 September 2005); NCT00160602 (registered 8 September 2005); NCT00175877 (registered 9 September 2005); and NCT00160641 (registered 8 September 2005).

     

Utility of a novel inflammatory marker,GlycA, for assessment of rheumatoid arthritis disease activity and coronary atherosclerosis

IntroductionGlycA is a novel inflammatory biomarker measured using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). Its NMR signal primarily represents glycosylated acute phase proteins. GlycA was associated with inflammation and development of cardiovascular disease in initially healthy women. We hypothesized that GlycA is a biomarker of disease activity and is associated with coronary artery atherosclerosis in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study of 166 patients with RA and 90 control subjects. GlycA was measured from an NMR signal originating from N-acetylglucosamine residues on circulating glycoproteins. The relationship between GlycA and RA disease activity (Disease Activity Score based on 28 joints (DAS28)) and coronary artery calcium score was determined.ResultsGlycA concentrations were higher in patients with RA (median (interquartile range): 398 μmol/L (348 to 473 μmol/L)) than control subjects (344 μmol/L (314 to 403 μmol/L) (P < 0.001). In RA, GlycA was strongly correlated with DAS28 based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) and DAS28 based on C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) and their components, including tender and swollen joint counts, global health score, ESR and CRP (all P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for GlycA’s ability to differentiate between patients with low versus moderate to high disease activity based on DAS28-CRP was 0.75 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.68, 0.83). For each quartile increase in GlycA, the odds of having coronary artery calcium increased by 48 % (95 % CI: 4 %, 111 %), independent of age, race and sex (P = 0.03).ConclusionGlycA is a novel inflammatory marker that may be useful for assessment of disease activity and is associated with coronary artery atherosclerosis in patients with RA.     

Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Background

Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS.

Methods

Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization.

Results

During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS.

Conclusions

The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.     

Inflammation and atherosclerosis in rheumatoid arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) associates with increased cardiovascular mortality. This appears to be predominantly due to ischaemic causes, such as myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure. The higher prevalence of cardiac ischaemia in RA is thought to be due to the accelerated development of atherosclerosis. There are two main reasons for this, which might be inter-related: the systemic inflammatory load, characteristic of RA; and the accumulation in RA of classical risk factors for coronary heart disease, which is reminiscent of the metabolic syndrome. We describe and discuss in the context of RA the involvement of local and systemic inflammatory processes in the development and rupture of atherosclerotic plaques, as well as the role of individual risk factors for coronary heart disease. We also present the challenges facing the clinical and scientific communities addressing this problem, which is receiving increasing attention.     

Genetic risk score predicting risk of rheumatoid arthritis phenotypes and age of symptom onset

Background

Cumulative genetic profiles can help identify individuals at high-risk for developing RA. We examined the impact of 39 validated genetic risk alleles on the risk of RA phenotypes characterized by serologic and erosive status.

Methods/Principal Findings

We evaluated single nucleotide polymorphisms at 31 validated RA risk loci and 8 Human Leukocyte Antigen alleles among 542 Caucasian RA cases and 551 Caucasian controls from Nurses'' Health Study and Nurses'' Health Study II. We created a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) and evaluated it as 7 ordinal groups using logistic regression (adjusting for age and smoking) to assess the relationship between GRS group and odds of developing seronegative (RF− and CCP−), seropositive (RF+ or CCP+), erosive, and seropositive, erosive RA phenotypes. In separate case only analyses, we assessed the relationships between GRS and age of symptom onset.In 542 RA cases, 317 (58%) were seropositive, 163 (30%) had erosions and 105 (19%) were seropositive with erosions. Comparing the highest GRS risk group to the median group, we found an OR of 1.2 (95% CI = 0.8–2.1) for seronegative RA, 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9–4.7) for seropositive RA, 3.2 (95% CI = 1.8–5.6) for erosive RA, and 7.6 (95% CI = 3.6–16.3) for seropositive, erosive RA. No significant relationship was seen between GRS and age of onset.

Conclusions/Significance

Results suggest that seronegative and seropositive/erosive RA have different genetic architecture and support the importance of considering RA phenotypes in RA genetic studies.     

Prospective assessment of cardiovascular risk parameters in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Background

The study presents a prospective follow-up assessment of cardiovascular (CV) risk parameters in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in comparison with control subjects.

Methods

The study group consisted of 41 RA patients. The following parameters were assessed at subsequent visits [initial (T0), follow-up after 6 years (T6)]: traditional CV risk factors, carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), QTc duration, serum concentration of amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). A comparative cIMT assessment was performed on 23 healthy controls of comparable age.

Results

The mean (SD) cIMT value in RA patients was significantly higher at T6 than at T0 [0.87 (0.21) vs 0.76 (0.15) mm, p?<?0.001], the increase in patients with atherosclerotic plaques was noted. Patients with plaques were significantly older, had higher inflammatory parameters. The mean cIMT was significantly higher in RA patients than in controls at both T6, T0 visits. Certain traditional CV risk factors exacerbated during follow up. Unfavorable metabolic parameters and significantly higher cIMT were found in male patients than in female patients at T6. During follow-up, no significant differences in NT-proBNP, QTc were found. There were no significant relationships between cIMT, NT-proBNP, QTc and parameters of disease activity at T6.

Conclusions

During the 6-year course of established RA, significant exacerbation of atherosclerosis was found, revealed by higher cIMT. A careful monitoring should be applied to patients with atherosclerotic plaques and of male gender due to higher burden of CV risk. In long-standing disease, traditional CV risk factors seem to play a key role, beyond the inflammatory activity.

     

Biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction,cardiovascular risk factors and atherosclerosis in rheumatoid arthritis

Cardiovascular event rates are markedly increased in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and RA atherogenesis remains poorly understood. The relative contributions of traditional and nontraditional risk factors to cardiovascular disease in RA await elucidation. The present study comprises three components. First, we compared biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction (vascular cell adhesion molecule [VCAM]-1, intercellular adhesion molecule [ICAM]-1 and endothelial leucocyte adhesion molecule [ELAM]-1) in 74 RA patients and 80 healthy control individuals before and after controlling for traditional and nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors, including high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), IL-1, IL-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α. Second, we investigated the potential role of an extensive range of patient characteristics in endothelial dysfunction in the 74 RA patients. Finally, we assessed associations between biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction and ultrasonographically determined common carotid artery intima–media thickness and plaque in RA. The three biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction, as well as hs-CRP, IL-1, IL-6 and tumor necrosis factor-α, were higher in patients than in control individuals (P < 0.0001). Patients were also older, exercised less and had a greater waist circumference, blood pressure and triglyceride levels (P ≤ 0.04). Five patients had diabetes. Differences in endothelial function were no longer significant between patients and controls (P = 0.08) only after both traditional and nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for. In the 74 RA patients, IL-6 predicted levels of all three biomarkers (P ≤ 0.03), and rheumatoid factor titres and low glomerular filtration rate (GFR) both predicted levels of VCAM-1 and ICAM-1, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors (P ≤ 0.02). VCAM-1 was associated with common carotid artery intima–media thickness (P = 0.02) and plaque (P = 0.04) in RA. Patients had impaired endothelial function, less favourable traditional cardiovascular risk factor profiles, and higher circulating concentrations of hs-CRP and cytokines compared with healthy control individuals. Both traditional and nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors contributed to the differences in endothelial function between RA patients and healthy control individuals. IL-6, rheumatoid factor titres and low GFR were independently predictive of endothelial dysfunction in RA. Disease-modifying agents that effectively suppress both cytokine and rheumatoid factor production, and interventions aimed at preserving renal function may attenuate cardiovascular risk in RA.     

Progression of coronary artery atherosclerosis in rheumatoid arthritis: comparison with participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Introduction

In cross-sectional studies, patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have higher coronary artery calcium (CAC) than controls. However, their rate of progression of CAC and the predictors of CAC progression have heretofore remained unknown.

Methods

Incidence and progression of CAC were compared in 155 patients with RA and 835 control participants. The association of demographic characteristics, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, RA disease characteristics and selected inflammatory markers with incidence and progression of CAC were evaluated.

Results

The incidence rate of newly detected CAC was 8.2/100 person-years in RA and 7.3/100 person-years in non-RA control subjects [IRR 1.1 (0.7-1.8)]. RA patients who developed newly detectable CAC were older (59±7 vs. 55±6 years old, p=0.03), had higher triglyceride levels (137±86 vs. 97±60 mg/dL, p=0.03), and higher systolic blood pressure (129±17 vs. 117±15 mm Hg, p=0.01) compared to those who did not develop incident CAC. Differences in blood pressure and triglyceride levels remained significant after adjustment for age (p<=0.05). RA patients with any CAC at baseline had a median rate of yearly progression of 21 (7–62) compared to 21 (5–70) Agatston units in controls. No statistical differences between RA progressors and RA non-progressors were observed for inflammatory markers or for RA disease characteristics.

Conclusions

The incidence and progression of CAC did not differ between RA and non-RA participants. In patients with RA, incident CAC was associated with older age, higher triglyceride levels, and higher blood pressure, but not with inflammatory markers or RA disease characteristics.     

Correlation between endothelial function and carotid atherosclerosis in rheumatoid arthritis patients with long-standing disease

Introduction  

In this study, we aimed to determine the relationship between flow-mediated endothelium-dependent vasodilatation (FMD) and carotid artery intima-media wall thickness (IMT), two surrogate markers of atherosclerosis, in a series of Spanish patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) without clinically evident cardiovascular (CV) disease.     

Relationship between Framingham risk score and subclinical atherosclerosis in carotid plaques:an in vivo study using multi-contrast MRI

The assessment and management of early-stage atherosclerosis are important for the prevention of cardiovascular disease(CVD).In this study,we used multi-contrast magnetic resonance imaging(MRI) to investigate the carotid plaque feature in asymptomatic,at-risk subjects;we also evaluated the correlation between MRI findings and Framingham risk score(FRS).One hundred sixty-six asymptomatic individuals with risk factors for CVD underwent multi-contrast MRI.After the arterial morphology and plaque components were outlined,the differences in carotid plaque burden among the various risk categories were analyzed.The FRS analysis showed that high-risk individuals had thicker vessel wall and higher plaque lipid content than did low risk participants.A substantial proportion of advanced carotid plaques occurred in low and intermediate-risk groups.Multi-contrast MRI may provide incremental value to the FRS in managing asymptomatic at-risk population.     

Different value of coronary calcium score to predict obstructive coronary artery disease in patients with and without moderate chronic kidney disease

Purpose

The coronary calcium score (CCS) predicts significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in the general population. While moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with high CCS, the use of CCS to predict significant CAD in these patients is unknown.

Methods

A total of 704 patients underwent computed tomography coronary angiography for the assessment of CCS and CAD. Sixty-nine (10 %) patients had moderate CKD, defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between 30 and 59 mL/min/1.73m², and the remaining patients were considered to be without significant CKD (eGFR?≥?60 mL/min/1.73m²).

Results

Patients with moderate CKD were older, had a higher CCS, and a higher prevalence of obstructive CAD than patients without significant CKD. Receiver-operator curve analysis showed that CCS predicted the presence of obstructive CAD in both patients with moderate CKD and those without significant CKD. In patients with moderate CKD, the optimal cut-off value of CCS to diagnose obstructive CAD was 140 (sensitivity 73 % and specificity of 70 %), and is 2.8 fold higher than in patients without significant CKD (cut-off value?=?50; sensitivity 75 % and specificity 75 %).

Conclusion

The present results demonstrate that CCS can predict obstructive CAD in patients with moderate CKD, although the optimal cut-off value is higher than in patients without significant CKD.     

Enhanced reactivity to pain in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction  

Maladaptive physiological responses to stress appear to play a role in chronic inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, relatively little stress research in RA patients has involved the study of pain, the most commonly reported and most impairing stressor in RA. In the present study, we compared psychophysical and physiological responses to standardized noxious stimulation in 19 RA patients and 21 healthy controls.     

Adipokines,inflammation, insulin resistance,and carotid atherosclerosis in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction

Cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality are increased in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Inflammation is thought to be an important factor in accelerated atherosclerosis in RA, whereas insulin resistance is a known risk factor for atherosclerosis in RA. We hypothesised that adipokines could be a link between inflammation, insulin resistance, and atherosclerosis in RA.

Methods

The common carotid artery (CCA) intima-media thickness (IMT), CCA resistive index (RI), and carotid plaques were measured by ultrasonography in 192 patients with RA. Insulin resistance was assessed by the homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Serum adiponectin, leptin, resistin, tumor necrosis factor-α, and interleukin (IL)-6 concentrations were determined.

Results

The CCA RI was associated with CCA IMT and the estimated total plaque volume after adjustment for conventional CV risk factors. Among adipokines, resistin and IL-6 were correlated with inflammatory parameters. Leptin and leptin:adiponectin (L:A) ratio were correlated with metabolic risk factors, including HOMA-IR. And L:A ratio was related to the CCA RI after adjustment for conventional and nonconventional CV risk factors, including HOMA-IR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein.

Conclusion

L:A ratio was associated with HOMA-IR and carotid RI. L:A ratio might be an independent factor for predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with RA.     

Leflunomide increases the risk of silent liver fibrosis in patients with rheumatoid arthritis receiving methotrexate

Introduction

Muscle symptoms in systemic sclerosis (SSc) may originate from altered skeletal muscle microcirculation, which can be investigated by means of blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

Methods

After ethics committee approval and written consent, 11 consecutive SSc patients (5 men, mean age 52.6 years, mean SSc disease duration 5.4 years) and 12 healthy volunteers (4 men, mean age 45.1 years) were included. Subjects with peripheral arterial occlusive disease were excluded. BOLD MRI was performed on calf muscles during cuff-induced ischemia and reactive hyperemia, using a 3-T whole-body scanner (Verio, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany) and fat-suppressed single-short multi-echo echo planar imaging (EPI) with four different effective echo times. Muscle BOLD signal time courses were obtained for gastrocnemius and soleus muscles: minimal hemoglobin oxygen saturation (T2*_min) and maximal T2* values (T2*_max), time to T2* peak (TTP), and slopes of oxygen normalization after T2* peaking.

Results

The vast majority of SSc patients lacked skeletal muscle atrophy, weakness or serum creatine kinase elevation. Nevertheless, more intense oxygen desaturation during ischemia was observed in calf muscles of SSc patients (mean T2*_min -15.0%), compared with controls (-9.1%, P = 0.02). SSc patients also had impaired oxygenation during hyperemia (median T2*_max 9.2% vs. 20.1%, respectively, P = 0.007). The slope of muscle oxygen normalization was significantly less steep and prolonged (TTP) in SSc patients (P<0.001 for both). Similar differences were found at a separate analysis of gastrocnemius and soleus muscles, with most pronounced impairment in the gastrocnemius.

Conclusions

BOLD MRI demonstrates a significant impairment of skeletal muscle microcirculation in SSc.     

A simple algorithm to predict the development of radiological erosions in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To produce a practical algorithm to predict which patients with early rheumatoid arthritis will develop radiological erosions. DESIGN: Primary care based prospective cohort study. SETTING: All general practices in the Norwich Health Authority, Norfolk. SUBJECTS: 175 patients notified to the Norfolk Arthritis Register were visited by a metrologist soon after they had presented to their general practitioners with inflammatory polyarthritis, and again after a further 12 months. All the patients satisfied the American Rheumatism Association''s 1987 criteria for rheumatoid arthritis and were seen by a metrologist within six months of the onset of symptoms. The study population was randomly split into a prediction sample (n = 105) for generating the algorithm and a validation sample (n = 70) for testing it. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictor variables measured at baseline included rheumatoid factor status, swelling of specific joint areas, duration of morning stiffness, nodules, disability score, age, sex, and disease duration when the patient first presented. The outcome variable was the presence of radiological erosions in the hands or feet, or both, after 12 months. RESULTS: A simple algorithm based on a combination of three variables--a positive rheumatoid factor test, swelling of at least two large joints, and a disease duration of more than three months--was best able to predict erosions. When the accuracy of this algorithm was tested with the validation sample, the erosion status of 79% of patients was predicted correctly. CONCLUSIONS: A simple algorithm based on three easily measured items of information can predict which patients are at high risk and which are at low risk of developing radiological erosions.