Determination of the spread of HIV from the AIDS incidence history

The relation between the incidence of HIV in the general population, the number of AIDS cases, and the incubation period for the disease is examined. The number of AIDS cases can be expressed in terms of a convolution integral over the incubation period distribution and the temporal history of HIV incidence. In order to determine the level of HIV incidence it is necessary to invert the convolution. In this manner, it is possible to determine the spread of HIV up to the present time from knowledge of the AIDS incidence history and the incubation period. We describe the inversion of the convolution in terms of a Laplace transform technique that is applicable for any given incubation period distribution. Substantial simplifications in the technique are found in the case of an Erlang distribution for the probability density. The spread of HIV infections in the United States is charted through 1988 using AIDS incidence data that are corrected for both the revised AIDS case definition and reporting time delays. The results are consistent with current estimates of the HIV incidence in the United States and show no evidence of saturation in the rate of new infections. Indeed, the rate of new infections still appears to be climbing as of that date. While the technique is unable to predict the future course of the epidemic, it may provide a useful benchmark for comparison with mathematical models of the epidemic. The techniques are conceptually applicable to diseases other than AIDS.     

When Did HIV Incidence Peak in Harare,Zimbabwe? Back-Calculation from Mortality Statistics

HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe, a result of both high levels of AIDS mortality and a reduction in incident infections. An important component in understanding the dynamics in HIV prevalence is knowledge of past trends in incidence, such as when incidence peaked and at what level. However, empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe or elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Using mortality data, we use a back-calculation technique to reconstruct historic trends in incidence. From AIDS mortality data, extracted from death registration in Harare, together with an estimate of survival post-infection, HIV incidence trends were reconstructed that would give rise to the observed patterns of AIDS mortality. Models were fitted assuming three parametric forms of the incidence curve and under nine different assumptions regarding combinations of trends in non-AIDS mortality and patterns of survival post-infection with HIV. HIV prevalence was forward-projected from the fitted incidence and mortality curves. Models that constrained the incidence pattern to a cubic spline function were flexible and produced well-fitting, realistic patterns of incidence. In models assuming constant levels of non-AIDS mortality, annual incidence peaked between 4 and 5% between 1988 and 1990. Under other assumptions the peak level ranged from 3 to 8% per annum. However, scenarios assuming increasing levels of non-AIDS mortality resulted in implausibly low estimates of peak prevalence (11%), whereas models with decreasing underlying crude mortality could be consistent with the prevalence and mortality data. HIV incidence is most likely to have peaked in Harare between 1988 and 1990, which may have preceded the peak elsewhere in Zimbabwe. This finding, considered alongside the timing and location of HIV prevention activities, will give insight into the decline of HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe.     

Common protozoans as an uncommon cause of respiratory ailments in HIV-associated immunodeficiency

Opportunistic infections (OIs) are the leading cause of mortality and morbidity among HIV-positive subjects. The breadth of reports of the rare occurrence of OIs in HIV/AIDS has been increasing over the years and more recent studies have outlined the changing trends in the emergence of newer pathogens. Recent reports of the association of certain protozoans that normally do not infect sites other than their normal sites of localization have generated huge interest among scientists. The complete depression of the immune system, followed by the onset of OIs, especially due to protozoans, i.e. toxoplasmosis, isosporiasis, leishmaniasis, cyclosporosis, microsporidiosis and cryptosporidiosis, is not uncommon in AIDS. The immunologic and pathologic basis behind the susceptibility of immunodepressed individuals to these 'non-site-specific parasites' is likely to have a huge impact on HIV disease progression. Certain possible shortcomings in the immunologic armory of immunodeficient subjects, their failure to contain the establishment of these 'uncommon' agents in the human host and their significance in HIV disease progression are discussed.     

Passive immunotherapy in advanced HIV infection and therapeutic plasmapheresis in asymptomatic HIV-positive individuals: a four-year clinical experience

We have been treating patients with advanced HIV disease using passiveimmunotherapy (PIT). Earlier studies of PIT which have been publishedconcerned relatively short periods of treatment: our study is by far the longest and reports also on the long-term effects of plasmapheresis onhealthy HIV-infected individuals. Fifty-nine patients with an average CD4+T-cell count of 55 per cu.mm. at baseline were transfused at monthlyintervals with 500 ml of hyperimmune plasma. No disease progression ordeath occurred among the 8 asymptomatic patients under the treatment, whichlasted for 36.25 months on average. Seven of the 15 ARC patients progressedto AIDS but none died in an average period of 25.9 months. Seven of the 36symptomatic AIDS patients with advanced disease died in an average period of19.6 months. PIT appears to be nontoxic and to have beneficial effectslasting at least four years under continuous treatment. It probably delaysdisease progression in ARC and AIDS patients, and almost certainly does soin asymptomatic late HIV infection with a very low CD4+ T-cell count. Noneof the 51 donors suffered adverse effects, nor did any progress to ARC orAIDS in an average period of 30.1 months. Their laboratory parametersindicated a nearly stable condition: in particular, their average CD4+T-cell count rose from 478 to 498. The study of our plasma donors indicatedthat repeated and frequent plasma donation by asymptomatic HIV-infectedindividuals could delay disease progression, although further studies areneeded to investigate this.     

Sex-structured HIV/AIDS model to analyse the effects of condom use with application to Zimbabwe

We present a sex-structured model for heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in a community. The model is formulated using integro-differential equations, which are shown to be equivalent to delay differential equations with a time delay due to incubation period. The sex-structured HIV/AIDS model divides the population into a two sex-structure consisting of females and males. The threshold and equilibria for the model are determined and stabilities are examined. We extend the model to focus on the effects of condom use as a single-strategy approach in HIV prevention in the absence of any treatment. Initially we model the use of male condoms and further extend the model to incorporate the use of both female and male condoms. The model includes two primary factors in condom use to control HIV that are condom efficacy and compliance. The exposure risk of infection after each intervention is obtained. Basic reproductive numbers for these models are computed and compared to assess the effectiveness of male and female condom use in a community. The models are numerically analysed to assess the effectiveness of condom use on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS using demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe. The study demonstrates the use of sex-structured HIV/AIDS models in assessing the effectiveness of female and male condom use as a preventative strategy in a heterosexually active population. Z. Mukandavire would like to acknowledge financial support given by the National University of Science and Technology through a Staff Development Scholarship. The authors are grateful to Eagle Insurance Company of Zimbabwe for financial support.     

Role of avidity and breadth of the CD4 T cell response in progression to AIDS

The great variability in the time between infection with HIV and the onset of AIDS has been the object of intense study. In the current work, we examine a mathematical model that focuses on the role of immune response variability between patients. We study the effect of variation in both the avidity and the breadth of the immune response on within-patient disease dynamics, viral setpoint and time to AIDS. We conclude that immune response variability can explain the observed variability in disease progression to a large extent. It turns out that the avidity, more than the breadth of the immune response, determines disease progression, and that the average avidity of the five best clones is a much better correlate for disease progression than the total number of clones responding. For the design of vaccines, this would suggest that, if given the choice between stimulating a broader, but average avidity response or a narrower high-avidity response, the latter option would yield better control of virus load and consequently slow down disease progression.     

Hierarchical kernel mixture models for the prediction of AIDS disease progression using HIV structural gp120 profiles

Changes to the glycosylation profile on HIV gp120 can influence viral pathogenesis and alter AIDS disease progression. The characterization of glycosylation differences at the sequence level is inadequate as the placement of carbohydrates is structurally complex. However, no structural framework is available to date for the study of HIV disease progression. In this study, we propose a novel machine-learning based framework for the prediction of AIDS disease progression in three stages (RP, SP, and LTNP) using the HIV structural gp120 profile. This new intelligent framework proves to be accurate and provides an important benchmark for predicting AIDS disease progression computationally. The model is trained using a novel HIV gp120 glycosylation structural profile to detect possible stages of AIDS disease progression for the target sequences of HIV+ individuals. The performance of the proposed model was compared to seven existing different machine-learning models on newly proposed gp120-Benchmark_1 dataset in terms of error-rate (MSE), accuracy (CCI), stability (STD), and complexity (TBM). The novel framework showed better predictive performance with 67.82% CCI, 30.21 MSE, 0.8 STD, and 2.62 TBM on the three stages of AIDS disease progression of 50 HIV+ individuals. This framework is an invaluable bioinformatics tool that will be useful to the clinical assessment of viral pathogenesis.     

HIV and HCV： from Co-infection to Epidemiology, Transmission, Pathogenesis, and Treatment

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the infectious agent causing acquired immu-nodeficiency syndrome (AIDS),a deadliest scourge of human society. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major causative agent of chronic liver disease and infects an estimated 170 million people worldwide,resulting in a serious public health burden. Due to shared routes of transmission,co-infection with HIV and HCV has become common among individuals who had high risks of blood exposures. Among hemophiliacs the co-infection rate accounts for 85%; while among injection drug users (IDU) the rate can be as high as 90%. HIV can accelerate the progression of HCV-related liver disease,particularly when immunodeficiency has developed. Although the effect of HCV on HIV infection is controversial,most studies showed an increase in mortality due to liver disease. HCV may act as a direct cofactor to fasten the progression of AIDS and decrease the tolerance of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HARRT). Conversely,HAART-related hepatotoxicity may enhance the progression of liver fibrosis. Due to above complications,co-infection with HCV and HIV-1 has imposed a critical challenge in the management of these patients. In this review,we focus on the epidemiology and transmission of HIV and HCV,the impact of the two viruses on each other,and their treatment.     

Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

BackgroundUNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets.Methods and findingsWe simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19–related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections.ConclusionsThe new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

John Stover and co-workers assess the potential health impacts of UNAIDS’ HIV/AIDS targets.     

HIV and HCV: from Co-infection to epidemiology, transmission, pathogenesis, and treatment

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the infectious agent causing acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), a deadliest scourge of human society. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major causative agent of chronic liver disease and infects an estimated 170 million people worldwide, resulting in a serious public health burden. Due to shared routes of transmission, co-infection with HIV and HCV has become common among individuals who had high risks of blood exposures. Among hemophiliacs the co-infection rate accounts for 85%; while among injection drug users (IDU) the rate can be as high as 90%. HIV can accelerate the progression of HCV-related liver disease, particularly when immunodeficiency has developed. Although the effect of HCV on HIV infection is controversial, most studies showed an increase in mortality due to liver disease. HCV may act as a direct cofactor to fasten the progression of AIDS and decrease the tolerance of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HARRT). Conversely, HAART-related hepatotoxicity may enhance the progression of liver fibrosis. Due to above complications, co-infection with HCV and HIV-1 has imposed a critical challenge in the management of these patients. In this review, we focus on the epidemiology and transmission of HIV and HCV, the impact of the two viruses on each other, and their treatment.      

The role of mutation accumulation in HIV progression

The onset of AIDS is characterized by the collapse of the immune system after a prolonged asymptomatic period. The mechanistic basis of this disease progression has remained obscure, hindering the development of effective therapies. Here I present a mechanism that underlies the deterioration of the immune system during HIV infection. The elevated turnover of lymphocytes throughout the asymptomatic period is postulated to result in the accumulation of deleterious mutations, which impairs immunological function, replicative ability and viability of lymphocytes. This mutational meltdown is proposed to occur throughout the hierarchy of lymphocyte progenitors, resulting in the deterioration of lymphocyte regeneration and an ensuing rise in viral loads. A mathematical model is used to illustrate this mechanism of progressive immunological deterioration. Mutation accumulation may explain not only the decline in CD4+T cells, but also the functional deterioration of CD4+T cells, CD8+T cells and B cells, and the exhaustion of lymphocyte regeneration.     

Modeling the Genetic Control of HIV-1 Dynamics After Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

The progression of HIV disease has been markedly slowed by the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). However, substantial genetic variation was observed to occur among different people in the decay rate of viral loads caused by HAART. The characterization of specific genes involved in HIV dynamics is central to design personalized drugs for the prevention of this disease, but usually cannot be addressed by experimental methods alone rather than require the help of mathematical and statistical methods. A novel statistical model has been recently developed to detect genetic variants that are responsible for the shape of HAART-induced viral decay curves. This model was employed to an HIV/AIDS trial, which led to the identification of a major genetic determinant that triggers an effect on HIV dynamics. This detected major genetic determinant also affects several clinically important parameters, such as half-lives of infected cells and HIV eradication times.Key Words: Hardy-weinberg equilibrium, bi-exponential function, quantitative trait loci, HIV dynamics, functional mapping.     

益生菌治疗艾滋病相关腹泻的研究现状和进展

摘要：艾滋病（AIDS）是一种具有极大危害性的传染性疾病。AIDS发病和死亡都呈现明显上升趋势,传播模式发生变化,疫情由高危人群向一般人群扩散。因此,AIDS/HIV已成为中国的一个严重的公共卫生问题,政府对此极为重视。目前AIDS的治疗药物主要包括NNRTIs、NRTIs、PIs、FIs、CRIs和INIs这6大类,因长期使用这些药物的副作用以及此病合并的并发症特性,探讨其发病机制及寻找新的治疗思路,一直是此病研究领域中的热点。随着肠道微生态学研究领域的发展,应用人体无害的益生菌治疗HIV感染相关腹泻逐渐受到全球关注,就此作一综述。     

Synonymous substitution rates predict HIV disease progression as a result of underlying replication dynamics

Upon HIV transmission, some patients develop AIDS in only a few months, while others remain disease free for 20 or more years. This variation in the rate of disease progression is poorly understood and has been attributed to host genetics, host immune responses, co-infection, viral genetics, and adaptation. Here, we develop a new “relaxed-clock” phylogenetic method to estimate absolute rates of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution through time. We identify an unexpected association between the synonymous substitution rate of HIV and disease progression parameters. Since immune activation is the major determinant of HIV disease progression, we propose that this process can also determine viral generation times, by creating favourable conditions for HIV replication. These conclusions may apply more generally to HIV evolution, since we also observed an overall low synonymous substitution rate for HIV-2, which is known to be less pathogenic than HIV-1 and capable of tempering the detrimental effects of immune activation. Humoral immune responses, on the other hand, are the major determinant of nonsynonymous rate changes through time in the envelope gene, and our relaxed-clock estimates support a decrease in selective pressure as a consequence of immune system collapse.     

Statistical modelling of the AIDS epidemic for forecasting health care needs

The objective of this paper is to develop statistical methods for estimating current and future numbers of individuals in different stages of the natural history of the human immunodeficiency (AIDS) virus infection and to evaluate the impact of therapeutic advances on these numbers. The approach is to extend the method of back-calculation to allow for a multistage model of natural history and to permit the hazard functions of progression from one stage to the next to depend on calendar time. Quasi-likelihood estimates of key quantities for evaluating health care needs can be obtained through iteratively reweighted least squares under weakly parametric models for the infection rate. An approach is proposed for incorporating into the analysis independent estimates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence obtained from epidemiologic surveys. The methods are applied to the AIDS epidemic in the United States. Short-term projections are given of both AIDS incidence and the numbers of HIV-infected AIDS-free individuals with CD4 cell depletion. The impact of therapeutic advances on these numbers is evaluated using a change-point hazard model. A number of important sources of uncertainty must be considered when interpreting the results, including uncertainties in the specified hazard functions of disease progression, in the parametric model for the infection rate, in the AIDS incidence data, in the efficacy of treatment, and in the proportions of HIV-infected individuals receiving treatment.     

Estimating a treatment effect with repeated measurements accounting for varying effectiveness duration

To assess treatment efficacy in clinical trials, certain clinicaloutcomes are repeatedly measured over time for the same subject.The difference in their means may characterize a treatment effect.Since treatment effectiveness lag and saturation times may exist,erosion of treatment effect often occurs during the observationperiod. Instead of using models based on ad hoc parametric orpurely nonparametric time-varying coefficients, we model thetreatment effectiveness durations, which are the time intervalsbetween the lag and saturation times. Then we use some meanresponse models to include such treatment effectiveness durations.Our methodology is demonstrated by simulations and analysisof a landmark HIV/AIDS clinical trial of short-course nevirapineagainst mother-to-child HIV vertical transmission during labourand delivery.     

Age and Sex Structured Model for Assessing the Demographic Impact of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV/AIDS

Age and sex structured HIV/AIDS model with explicit incubation period is proposed as a system of delay differential equations. The model consists of two age groups that are children (0–14 years) and adults (15–49 years). Thus, the model considers both mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and heterosexual transmission of HIV in a community. MTCT can occur prenatally, at labour and delivery or postnatally through breastfeeding. In the model, we consider the children age group as a one-sex formulation and divide the adult age group into a two-sex structure consisting of females and males. The important mathematical features of the model are analysed. The disease-free and endemic equilibria are found and their stabilities investigated. We use the Lyapunov functional approach to show the local stability of the endemic equilibrium. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, and persistence are also presented. The basic reproductive number (ℛ₀) for the model shows that the adult population is responsible for the spread HIV/AIDS epidemic, thus up-to-date developed HIV/AIDS models to assess intervention strategies have focused much on heterosexual transmission by the adult population and the children population has received little attention. We numerically analyse the HIV/AIDS model to assess the community benefits of using antiretroviral drugs in reducing MTCT and the effects of breastfeeding in settings with high HIV/AIDS prevalence ratio using demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe.     

Host factors influencing susceptibility to HIV infection and AIDS progression

Transmission of HIV first results in an acute infection, followed by an apparently asymptomatic period that averages ten years. In the absence of antiretroviral treatment, most patients progress into a generalized immune dysfunction that culminates in death. The length of the asymptomatic period varies, and in rare cases infected individuals never progress to AIDS. Other individuals whose behavioral traits put them at high-risk of HIV transmission, surprisingly appear resistant and never succumb to infection. These unique cases highlight the fact that susceptibility to HIV infection and progression to disease are complex traits modulated by environmental and genetic factors. Recent evidence has indicated that natural variations in host genes can influence the outcome of HIV infection and its transmission. In this review we summarize the available literature on the roles of cellular factors and their genetic variation in modulating HIV infection and disease progression.