Back to BaySICS: A User-Friendly Program for Bayesian Statistical Inference from Coalescent Simulations

Inference of population demographic history has vastly improved in recent years due to a number of technological and theoretical advances including the use of ancient DNA. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) stands among the most promising methods due to its simple theoretical fundament and exceptional flexibility. However, limited availability of user-friendly programs that perform ABC analysis renders it difficult to implement, and hence programming skills are frequently required. In addition, there is limited availability of programs able to deal with heterochronous data. Here we present the software BaySICS: Bayesian Statistical Inference of Coalescent Simulations. BaySICS provides an integrated and user-friendly platform that performs ABC analyses by means of coalescent simulations from DNA sequence data. It estimates historical demographic population parameters and performs hypothesis testing by means of Bayes factors obtained from model comparisons. Although providing specific features that improve inference from datasets with heterochronous data, BaySICS also has several capabilities making it a suitable tool for analysing contemporary genetic datasets. Those capabilities include joint analysis of independent tables, a graphical interface and the implementation of Markov-chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods.     

Distinguishing migration from isolation: a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

A Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the relative effects of migration and isolation on genetic diversity in a pair of populations from DNA sequence data is developed and tested using simulations. The two populations are assumed to be descended from a panmictic ancestral population at some time in the past and may (or may not) after that be connected by migration. The use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo method allows the joint estimation of multiple demographic parameters in either a Bayesian or a likelihood framework. The parameters estimated include the migration rate for each population, the time since the two populations diverged from a common ancestral population, and the relative size of each of the two current populations and of the common ancestral population. The results show that even a single nonrecombining genetic locus can provide substantial power to test the hypothesis of no ongoing migration and/or to test models of symmetric migration between the two populations. The use of the method is illustrated in an application to mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a fish species: the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus).     

Land-Bridge Calibration of Molecular Clocks and the Post-Glacial Colonization of Scandinavia by the Eurasian Field Vole Microtus agrestis

Phylogeography interprets molecular genetic variation in a spatial and temporal context. Molecular clocks are frequently used to calibrate phylogeographic analyses, however there is mounting evidence that molecular rates decay over the relevant timescales. It is therefore essential that an appropriate rate is determined, consistent with the temporal scale of the specific analysis. This can be achieved by using temporally spaced data such as ancient DNA or by relating the divergence of lineages directly to contemporaneous external events of known time. Here we calibrate a Eurasian field vole (Microtus agrestis) mitochondrial genealogy from the well-established series of post-glacial geophysical changes that led to the formation of the Baltic Sea and the separation of the Scandinavian peninsula from the central European mainland. The field vole exhibits the common phylogeographic pattern of Scandinavian colonization from both the north and the south, however the southernmost of the two relevant lineages appears to have originated in situ on the Scandinavian peninsula, or possibly in the adjacent island of Zealand, around the close of the Younger Dryas. The mitochondrial substitution rate and the timescale for the genealogy are closely consistent with those obtained with a previous calibration, based on the separation of the British Isles from mainland Europe. However the result here is arguably more certain, given the level of confidence that can be placed in one of the central assumptions of the calibration, that field voles could not survive the last glaciation of the southern part of the Scandinavian peninsula. Furthermore, the similarity between the molecular clock rate estimated here and those obtained by sampling heterochronous (ancient) DNA (including that of a congeneric species) suggest that there is little disparity between the measured genetic divergence and the population divergence that is implicit in our land-bridge calibration.     

Integrating multiple lines of evidence into historical biogeography hypothesis testing: a Bison bison case study

One of the grand goals of historical biogeography is to understand how and why species'' population sizes and distributions change over time. Multiple types of data drawn from disparate fields, combined into a single modelling framework, are necessary to document changes in a species''s demography and distribution, and to determine the drivers responsible for change. Yet truly integrated approaches are challenging and rarely performed. Here, we discuss a modelling framework that integrates spatio-temporal fossil data, ancient DNA, palaeoclimatological reconstructions, bioclimatic envelope modelling and coalescence models in order to statistically test alternative hypotheses of demographic and potential distributional changes for the iconic American bison (Bison bison). Using different assumptions about the evolution of the bioclimatic niche, we generate hypothetical distributional and demographic histories of the species. We then test these demographic models by comparing the genetic signature predicted by serial coalescence against sequence data derived from subfossils and modern populations. Our results supported demographic models that include both climate and human-associated drivers of population declines. This synthetic approach, integrating palaeoclimatology, bioclimatic envelopes, serial coalescence, spatio-temporal fossil data and heterochronous DNA sequences, improves understanding of species'' historical biogeography by allowing consideration of both abiotic and biotic interactions at the population level.     

Elevated substitution rate estimates from ancient DNA: model violation and bias of Bayesian methods

The increasing ability to extract and sequence DNA from noncontemporaneous tissue offers biologists the opportunity to analyse ancient DNA (aDNA) together with modern DNA (mDNA) to address the taxonomy of extinct species, evolutionary origins, historical phylogeography and biogeography. Perhaps more exciting are recent developments in coalescence-based Bayesian inference that offer the potential to use temporal information from aDNA and mDNA for the estimation of substitution rates and divergence dates as an alternative to fossil and geological calibration. This comes at a time of growing interest in the possibility of time dependency for molecular rate estimates. In this study, we provide a critical assessment of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis for the estimation of substitution rate using simulated samples of aDNA and mDNA. We conclude that the current models and priors employed in Bayesian MCMC analysis of heterochronous mtDNA are susceptible to an upward bias in the estimation of substitution rates because of model misspecification when the data come from populations with less than simple demographic histories, including sudden short-lived population bottlenecks or pronounced population structure. However, when model misspecification is only mild, then the 95% highest posterior density intervals provide adequate frequentist coverage of the true rates.     

The performance of phylogenetic algorithms in estimating haplotype genealogies with migration

Genealogies estimated from haplotypic genetic data play a prominent role in various biological disciplines in general and in phylogenetics, population genetics and phylogeography in particular. Several software packages have specifically been developed for the purpose of reconstructing genealogies from closely related, and hence, highly similar haplotype sequence data. Here, we use simulated data sets to test the performance of traditional phylogenetic algorithms, neighbour-joining, maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood in estimating genealogies from nonrecombining haplotypic genetic data. We demonstrate that these methods are suitable for constructing genealogies from sets of closely related DNA sequences with or without migration. As genealogies based on phylogenetic reconstructions are fully resolved, but not necessarily bifurcating, and without reticulations, these approaches outperform widespread 'network' constructing methods. In our simulations of coalescent scenarios involving panmictic, symmetric and asymmetric migration, we found that phylogenetic reconstruction methods performed well, while the statistical parsimony approach as implemented in TCS performed poorly. Overall, parsimony as implemented in the PHYLIP package performed slightly better than other methods. We further point out that we are not making the case that widespread 'network' constructing methods are bad, but that traditional phylogenetic tree finding methods are applicable to haplotypic data and exhibit reasonable performance with respect to accuracy and robustness. We also discuss some of the problems of converting a tree to a haplotype genealogy, in particular that it is nonunique.     

A Bayesian phylogenetic method to estimate unknown sequence ages

Heterochronous data sets comprise molecular sequences sampled at different points in time. If the temporal range of the sampled sequences is large relative to the rate of mutation, the sampling times can directly calibrate evolutionary rates to calendar time. Here, we extend this calibration process to provide a full probabilistic method that utilizes temporal information in heterochronous data sets to estimate sampling times (leaf-ages) for sequenced for which this information unavailable. Our method is similar to relaxing the constraints of the molecular clock on specific lineages within a phylogenetic tree. Using a combination of synthetic and empirical data sets, we demonstrate that the method estimates leaf-ages reliably and accurately. Potential applications of our approach include incorporating samples of uncertain or radiocarbon-infinite age into ancient DNA analyses, evaluating the temporal signal in a particular sequence or data set, and exploring the reliability of sequence ages that are somehow contentious.     

Beyond F<Subscript>ST</Subscript>: Analysis of population genetic data for conservation

Both the ability to generate DNA data and the variety of analytical methods for conservation genetics are expanding at an ever-increasing pace. Analytical approaches are now possible that were unthinkable even five years ago due to limitations in computational power or the availability of DNA data, and this has vastly expanded the accuracy and types of information that may be gained from population genetic data. Here we provide a guide to recently developed methods for population genetic analysis, including identification of population structure, quantification of gene flow, and inference of demographic history. We cover both allele-frequency and sequence-based approaches, with a special focus on methods relevant to conservation genetic applications. Although classical population genetic approaches such as F _st (and its derivatives) have carried the field thus far, newer, more powerful, methods can infer much more from the data, rely on fewer assumptions, and are appropriate for conservation genetic management when precise estimates are needed.     

Elevated substitution rates estimated from ancient DNA sequences

Ancient DNA sequences are able to offer valuable insights into molecular evolutionary processes, which are not directly accessible via modern DNA. They are particularly suitable for the estimation of substitution rates because their ages provide calibrating information in phylogenetic analyses, circumventing the difficult task of choosing independent calibration points. The substitution rates obtained from such datasets have typically been high, falling between the rates estimated from pedigrees and species phylogenies. Many of these estimates have been made using a Bayesian phylogenetic method that explicitly accommodates heterochronous data. Stimulated by recent criticism of this method, we present a comprehensive simulation study that validates its performance. For datasets of moderate size, it produces accurate estimates of rates, while appearing robust to assumptions about demographic history. We then analyse a large collection of 749 ancient and 727 modern DNA sequences from 19 species of animals, plants and bacteria. Our new estimates confirm that the substitution rates estimated from ancient DNA sequences are elevated above long-term phylogenetic levels.     

Ancient DNA from pollen: a genetic record of population history in Scots pine

Assessments of plant population dynamics in space and time have depended on dated records of fossil pollen synthesized on a subcontinental scale. Genetic analyses of extant populations have revealed spatial relationships that are indicative of past spatial dynamics, but lack an explicit timescale. Synthesis of these data requires genetic analyses from abundant dated fossil material, and this has hitherto been lacking. Fossil pollen is the most abundant material with which to fill this data gap. Here we report genetic analyses of fossil pollen retrieved from Holtjärnen postglacial lake sediment in Sweden and show that plastid DNA is recoverable from Scots Pine and Norway spruce pollen grains that are 100 and 10 000 years old. By sequencing clones from two short plastid PCR products and by using multiple controls we show that the ancient sequences were endogenous to the fossil grains. Comparison of ancient sequences and those obtained from an extant population of Scots pine establishes the first genetic link between extant and fossil samples in this species, providing genetic continuity through time. The finding of one common haplotype present in modern, 100-year old and 10 000-year old samples suggests that it may have persisted near Holtjärnen throughout the postglacial period. This retrieval of ancient DNA from pollen has major implications for plant palaeoecology in conifer species by allowing direct estimates of population dynamics in space and time.     

Genetic diversity of longtail macaques (Macaca fascicularis) on the island of Mauritius: an assessment of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA polymorphisms

BACKGROUND: Individuals from an introduced population of longtail macaques on Mauritius have been extensively used in recent research. This population has low MHC gene diversity, and is thus regarded as a valuable resource for research. METHODS: We investigated the genetic diversity of this population using multiple molecular markers located in mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite DNA loci on the autosomes and the Y chromosome. We tested samples from 82 individuals taken from seven study sites. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We found this population to be panmictic, with a low degree of genetic variability. On the basis of an mtDNA phylogeny, we inferred that these macaques' ancestors originated from Java in Asia. Weak gametic disequilibrium was observed, suggesting decay of non-random associations between genomic genes at the time of founding. The results suggest that macaques bred in Mauritius are valuable as model animals for biomedical research because of their genetic homogeneity.     

Pre‐Columbian population dynamics in coastal southern Peru: A diachronic investigation of mtDNA patterns in the Palpa region by ancient DNA analysis

Alternative models have been proposed to explain the formation and decline of the south Peruvian Nasca culture, ranging from migration or invasion to autochthonous development and ecological crisis. To reveal to what extent population dynamic processes accounted for cultural development in the Nasca mainland, or were influenced by them, we analyzed ancient mitochondrial DNA of 218 individuals, originating from chronologically successive archaeological sites in the Palpa region, the Paracas Peninsula, and the Andean highlands in southern Peru. The sampling strategy allowed a diachronic analysis in a time frame from approximately 800 BC to 800 AD. Mitochondrial coding region polymorphisms were successfully analyzed and replicated for 130 individuals and control region sequences (np 16021–16408) for 104 individuals to determine Native American mitochondrial DNA haplogroups and haplotypes. The results were compared with ancient and contemporary Peruvian populations to reveal genetic relations of the archaeological samples. Frequency data and statistics show clear proximity of the Nasca populations to the populations of the preceding Paracas culture from Palpa and the Peninsula, and suggest, along with archaeological data, that the Nasca culture developed autochthonously in the Rio Grande drainage. Furthermore, the influence of changes in socioeconomic complexity in the Palpa area on the genetic diversity of the local population could be observed. In all, a strong genetic affinity between pre‐Columbian coastal populations from southern Peru could be determined, together with a significant differentiation from ancient highland and all present‐day Peruvian reference populations, best shown in the differential distribution of mitochondrial haplogroups. Am J Phys Anthropol 2010. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Antarctic krill population genomics: apparent panmixia,but genome complexity and large population size muddy the water

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) are an incredibly abundant pelagic crustacean which has a wide, but patchy, distribution in the Southern Ocean. Several studies have examined the potential for population genetic structuring in krill, but DNA‐based analyses have focused on a limited number of markers and have covered only part of their circum‐Antarctic range. We used mitochondrial DNA and restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RAD‐seq) to investigate genetic differences between krill from five sites, including two from East Antarctica. Our mtDNA results show no discernible genetic structuring between sites separated by thousands of kilometres, which is consistent with previous studies. Using standard RAD‐seq methodology, we obtained over a billion sequences from >140 krill, and thousands of variable nucleotides were identified at hundreds of loci. However, downstream analysis found that markers with sufficient coverage were primarily from multicopy genomic regions. Careful examination of these data highlights the complexity of the RAD‐seq approach in organisms with very large genomes. To characterize the multicopy markers, we recorded sequence counts from variable nucleotide sites rather than the derived genotypes; we also examined a small number of manually curated genotypes. Although these analyses effectively fingerprinted individuals, and uncovered a minor laboratory batch effect, no population structuring was observed. Overall, our results are consistent with panmixia of krill throughout their distribution. This result may indicate ongoing gene flow. However, krill's enormous population size creates substantial panmictic inertia, so genetic differentiation may not occur on an ecologically relevant timescale even if demographically separate populations exist.     

Multiple gene genealogies and AFLPs suggest cryptic speciation and long-distance dispersal in the basidiomycete Serpula himantioides (Boletales)

Serpula himantioides (Boletales, Basidiomycota) produces thin resupinate basidiocarps on dead coniferous wood worldwide and causes damage in buildings as well. In this study, we present evidence for the existence of at least three phylogenetically defined cryptic species (referred to as Sib I-III) within the morphospecies S. himantioides, a conclusion based on analyses of sequence data from four DNA regions and amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPS). A low degree of shared sequence polymorphisms was observed among the three lineages indicating a long-lasting separation. The AFLPs revealed two additional subgroups within Sib III. Results from mating studies were consistent with the molecular data. In Sib III, no correspondence between genetic and geographical distance was observed among isolates worldwide, presumably reflecting recent dispersal events. Our results indicate that at least two of the lineages (Sib II and Sib III) have wide sympatric distributions. A population genetic analysis of Sib III isolates, scoring sequence polymorphisms as codominant SNP markers, indicates that panmictic conditions exist in the Sib III group. This study supports the view that cryptic speciation is a common phenomenon in basidiomycete fungi and that phylogenetic species recognition can be a powerful inference to detect cryptic species. Furthermore, this study shows that AFLP data are a valuable supplement to DNA sequence data in that they may detect a finer level of genetic variation.     

An efficient pipeline for ancient DNA mapping and recovery of endogenous ancient DNA from whole‐genome sequencing data

Ancient DNA research has developed rapidly over the past few decades due to improvements in PCR and next‐generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, but challenges still exist. One major challenge in relation to ancient DNA research is to recover genuine endogenous ancient DNA sequences from raw sequencing data. This is often difficult due to degradation of ancient DNA and high levels of contamination, especially homologous contamination that has extremely similar genetic background with that of the real ancient DNA. In this study, we collected whole‐genome sequencing (WGS) data from 6 ancient samples to compare different mapping algorithms. To further explore more effective methods to separate endogenous DNA from homologous contaminations, we attempted to recover reads based on ancient DNA specific characteristics of deamination, depurination, and DNA fragmentation with different parameters. We propose a quick and improved pipeline for separating endogenous ancient DNA while simultaneously decreasing homologous contaminations to very low proportions. Our goal in this research was to develop useful recommendations for ancient DNA mapping and for separation of endogenous DNA to facilitate future studies of ancient DNA.     

A cost‐effective high‐throughput metabarcoding approach powerful enough to genotype ~44 000 year‐old rodent remains from Northern Africa

We present a cost‐effective metabarcoding approach, aMPlex Torrent, which relies on an improved multiplex PCR adapted to highly degraded DNA, combining barcoding and next‐generation sequencing to simultaneously analyse many heterogeneous samples. We demonstrate the strength of these improvements by generating a phylochronology through the genotyping of ancient rodent remains from a Moroccan cave whose stratigraphy covers the last 120 000 years. Rodents are important for epidemiology, agronomy and ecological investigations and can act as bioindicators for human‐ and/or climate‐induced environmental changes. Efficient and reliable genotyping of ancient rodent remains has the potential to deliver valuable phylogenetic and paleoecological information. The analysis of multiple ancient skeletal remains of very small size with poor DNA preservation, however, requires a sensitive high‐throughput method to generate sufficient data. We show this approach to be particularly adapted at accessing this otherwise difficult taxonomic and genetic resource. As a highly scalable, lower cost and less labour‐intensive alternative to targeted sequence capture approaches, we propose the aMPlex Torrent strategy to be a useful tool for the genetic analysis of multiple degraded samples in studies involving ecology, archaeology, conservation and evolutionary biology.     

Analyses of Nuclear ldhA Gene and mtDNA Control Region Sequences of Atlantic Northern Bluefin Tuna Populations

There has been considerable debate about whether the Atlantic northern bluefin tuna exist as a single panmictic unit. We have addressed this issue by examining both mitochondrial DNA control region nucleotide sequences and nuclear gene ldhA allele frequencies in replicate size or year class samples of northern bluefin tuna from the Mediterranean Sea and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Pairwise comparisons of multiple year class samples from the 2 regions provided no evidence for population subdivision. Similarly, analyses of molecular variance of both mitochondrial and ldhA data revealed no significant differences among or between samples from the 2 regions. These results demonstrate the importance of analyzing multiple year classes and large sample sizes to obtain accurate estimates when using allele frequencies to characterize a population. It is important to note that the absence of genetic evidence for population substructure does not unilaterally constitute evidence of a single panmictic population, as genetic differentiation can be prevented by large population sizes and by migration.     

Using phylochronology to reveal cryptic population histories: review and synthesis of 29 ancient DNA studies

The evolutionary history of a population involves changes in size, movements and selection pressures through time. Reconstruction of population history based on modern genetic data tends to be averaged over time or to be biased by generally reflecting only recent or extreme events, leaving many population historic processes undetected. Temporal genetic data present opportunities to reveal more complex population histories and provide important insights into what processes have influenced modern genetic diversity. Here we provide a synopsis of methods available for the analysis of ancient genetic data. We review 29 ancient DNA studies, summarizing the analytical methods and general conclusions for each study. Using the serial coalescent and a model-testing approach, we then re-analyse data from two species represented by these data sets in a common interpretive framework. Our analyses show that phylochronologic data can reveal more about population history than modern data alone, thus revealing 'cryptic' population processes, and enable us to determine whether simple or complex models best explain the data. Our re-analyses point to the need for novel methods that consider gene flow, multiple populations and population size in reconstruction of population history. We conclude that population genetic samples over large temporal and geographical scales, when analysed using more complex models and the serial coalescent, are critical to understand past population dynamics and provide important tools for reconstructing the evolutionary process.     

Ancient DNA and conservation: lessons from the endangered kiwi of New Zealand

Conservation genetics typically seeks to map the distribution of contemporary genetic variation across space, and to use the resulting genetic parameters to infer any likely short-term evolutionary consequences for rare and endangered species. Recent developments in the study of ancient DNA now enable the extension of genetic variation studies backwards in time and provide a context by which to interpret contemporary levels of genetic variation, in addition to any patterns of genetic change over time. Ancient DNA research can also help to determine past levels of genetic diversity, identify species' boundaries and reveal former ranges among morphologically cryptic taxa. Ancient DNA sequence data for the New Zealand kiwi (Apteryx spp.) are presented and we show that most ancient populations of rowi and tokoeka exhibited private mitochondrial DNA haplotypes. Moreover, we illustrate that the extinction of these populations has led to the loss of considerable genetic variation. We also use ancient DNA methodology to determine past species distributions for brown kiwi and great spotted kiwi whose bones are morphologically indistinguishable.     

Preferential access to genetic information from endogenous hominin ancient DNA and accurate quantitative SNP-typing via SPEX

The analysis of targeted genetic loci from ancient, forensic and clinical samples is usually built upon polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-generated sequence data. However, many studies have shown that PCR amplification from poor-quality DNA templates can create sequence artefacts at significant levels. With hominin (human and other hominid) samples, the pervasive presence of highly PCR-amplifiable human DNA contaminants in the vast majority of samples can lead to the creation of recombinant hybrids and other non-authentic artefacts. The resulting PCR-generated sequences can then be difficult, if not impossible, to authenticate. In contrast, single primer extension (SPEX)-based approaches can genotype single nucleotide polymorphisms from ancient fragments of DNA as accurately as modern DNA. A single SPEX-type assay can amplify just one of the duplex DNA strands at target loci and generate a multi-fold depth-of-coverage, with non-authentic recombinant hybrids reduced to undetectable levels. Crucially, SPEX-type approaches can preferentially access genetic information from damaged and degraded endogenous ancient DNA templates over modern human DNA contaminants. The development of SPEX-type assays offers the potential for highly accurate, quantitative genotyping from ancient hominin samples.