Statistical optimization of parametric accelerated failure time model for mapping survival trait loci

Most existing statistical methods for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) are not suitable for analyzing survival traits with a skewed distribution and censoring mechanism. As a result, researchers incorporate parametric and semi-parametric models of survival analysis into the framework of the interval mapping for QTL controlling survival traits. In survival analysis, accelerated failure time (AFT) model is considered as a de facto standard and fundamental model for data analysis. Based on AFT model, we propose a parametric approach for mapping survival traits using the EM algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Also, with Bayesian information criterion (BIC) as a model selection criterion, an optimal mapping model is constructed by choosing specific error distributions with maximum likelihood and parsimonious parameters. Two real datasets were analyzed by our proposed method for illustration. The results show that among the five commonly used survival distributions, Weibull distribution is the optimal survival function for mapping of heading time in rice, while Log-logistic distribution is the optimal one for hyperoxic acute lung injury.     

Generalized linear model for interval mapping of quantitative trait loci

We developed a generalized linear model of QTL mapping for discrete traits in line crossing experiments. Parameter estimation was achieved using two different algorithms, a mixture model-based EM (expectation–maximization) algorithm and a GEE (generalized estimating equation) algorithm under a heterogeneous residual variance model. The methods were developed using ordinal data, binary data, binomial data and Poisson data as examples. Applications of the methods to simulated as well as real data are presented. The two different algorithms were compared in the data analyses. In most situations, the two algorithms were indistinguishable, but when large QTL are located in large marker intervals, the mixture model-based EM algorithm can fail to converge to the correct solutions. Both algorithms were coded in C++ and interfaced with SAS as a user-defined SAS procedure called PROC QTL.     

Generalized linear mixed models for mapping multiple quantitative trait loci

Many biological traits are discretely distributed in phenotype but continuously distributed in genetics because they are controlled by multiple genes and environmental variants. Due to the quantitative nature of the genetic background, these multiple genes are called quantitative trait loci (QTL). When the QTL effects are treated as random, they can be estimated in a single generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), even if the number of QTL may be larger than the sample size. The GLMM in its original form cannot be applied to QTL mapping for discrete traits if there are missing genotypes. We examined two alternative missing genotype-handling methods: the expectation method and the overdispersion method. Simulation studies show that the two methods are efficient for multiple QTL mapping (MQM) under the GLMM framework. The overdispersion method showed slight advantages over the expectation method in terms of smaller mean-squared errors of the estimated QTL effects. The two methods of GLMM were applied to MQM for the female fertility trait of wheat. Multiple QTL were detected to control the variation of the number of seeded spikelets.     

Joint mapping of quantitative trait loci using F2 populations

In this paper, the theory of joint mapping of quantitative trait loci is extended to F₂ populations. Two independent regression equations, related to the additive and dominance effects respectively, are derived. Therefore, there are three alternative strategies for mapping QTLs, called additive-based mapping (ABM), dominance-based mapping (DBM) and additive-dominance-based mapping (ADBM). Simulation results have shown that ADBM is the most appropriate in most situations.     

Regularized estimation for the accelerated failure time model

Summary .  In the presence of high-dimensional predictors, it is challenging to develop reliable regression models that can be used to accurately predict future outcomes. Further complications arise when the outcome of interest is an event time, which is often not fully observed due to censoring. In this article, we develop robust prediction models for event time outcomes by regularizing the Gehan's estimator for the accelerated failure time (AFT) model ( Tsiatis, 1996 , Annals of Statistics 18, 305–328) with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Unlike existing methods based on the inverse probability weighting and the Buckley and James estimator ( Buckley and James, 1979 , Biometrika 66, 429–436), the proposed approach does not require additional assumptions about the censoring and always yields a solution that is convergent. Furthermore, the proposed estimator leads to a stable regression model for prediction even if the AFT model fails to hold. To facilitate the adaptive selection of the tuning parameter, we detail an efficient numerical algorithm for obtaining the entire regularization path. The proposed procedures are applied to a breast cancer dataset to derive a reliable regression model for predicting patient survival based on a set of clinical prognostic factors and gene signatures. Finite sample performances of the procedures are evaluated through a simulation study.     

Model for mapping imprinted quantitative trait loci in an inbred F2 design

The role of imprinting in shaping development has been ubiquitously observed in plants, animals, and humans. However, a statistical method that can detect and estimate the effects of imprinted quantitative trait loci (iQTL) over the genome has not been extensively developed. In this article, we propose a maximum likelihood approach for testing and estimating the imprinted effects of iQTL that contribute to variation in a quantitative trait. This approach, implemented with the EM algorithm, allows for a genome-wide scan for the existence of iQTL. This approach was used to reanalyze published data in an F(2) family derived from the LG/S and SM/S mouse strains. Several iQTL that regulate the growth of body weight by expressing paternally inherited alleles were identified. Our approach provides a standard procedure for testing the statistical significance of iQTL involved in the genetic control of complex traits.     

Bayesian LASSO for quantitative trait loci mapping

The mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) is to identify molecular markers or genomic loci that influence the variation of complex traits. The problem is complicated by the facts that QTL data usually contain a large number of markers across the entire genome and most of them have little or no effect on the phenotype. In this article, we propose several Bayesian hierarchical models for mapping multiple QTL that simultaneously fit and estimate all possible genetic effects associated with all markers. The proposed models use prior distributions for the genetic effects that are scale mixtures of normal distributions with mean zero and variances distributed to give each effect a high probability of being near zero. We consider two types of priors for the variances, exponential and scaled inverse-chi(2) distributions, which result in a Bayesian version of the popular least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model and the well-known Student's t model, respectively. Unlike most applications where fixed values are preset for hyperparameters in the priors, we treat all hyperparameters as unknowns and estimate them along with other parameters. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed to simulate the parameters from the posteriors. The methods are illustrated using well-known barley data.     

A bivalent polyploid model for mapping quantitative trait loci in outcrossing tetraploids

Two major aspects have made the genetic and genomic study of polyploids extremely difficult. First, increased allelic or nonallelic combinations due to multiple alleles result in complex gene actions and interactions for quantitative trait loci (QTL) in polyploids. Second, meiotic configurations in polyploids undergo a complex biological process including either bivalent or multivalent formation, or both. For bivalent polyploids, different degrees of preferential chromosome pairings may occur during meiosis. In this article, we develop a maximum-likelihood-based model for mapping QTL in tetraploids by considering the quantitative inheritance and meiotic mechanism of bivalent polyploids. This bivalent polyploid model is implemented with the EM algorithm to simultaneously estimate QTL position, QTL effects, and QTL-marker linkage phases by incorporating the impact of a cytological parameter determining bivalent chromosome pairings (the preferential pairing factor). Simulation studies are performed to investigate the performance and robustness of our statistical method for parameter estimation. The implication and extension of the bivalent polyploid model are discussed.     

Case-cohort analysis with accelerated failure time model

Summary .  In a case–cohort design, covariates are assembled only for a subcohort that is randomly selected from the entire cohort and any additional cases outside the subcohort. This design is appealing for large cohort studies of rare disease, especially when the exposures of interest are expensive to ascertain for all the subjects. We propose statistical methods for analyzing the case–cohort data with a semiparametric accelerated failure time model that interprets the covariates effects as to accelerate or decelerate the time to failure. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are developed. The finite sample properties of case–cohort estimator and its relative efficiency to full cohort estimator are assessed via simulation studies. A real example from a study of cardiovascular disease is provided to illustrate the estimating procedure.     

A Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model

A Bayesian semiparametric approach is described for an accelerated failure time model. The error distribution is assigned a Pólya tree prior and the regression parameters a noninformative hierarchical prior. Two cases are considered: the first assumes error terms are exchangeable; the second assumes that error terms are partially exchangeable. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is described to obtain a predictive distribution for a future observation given both uncensored and censored data.     

Sib mating designs for mapping quantitative trait loci

The power to separate the variance of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) from the polygenic variance is determined by the variability of genes identical by descent (IBD) at the QTL. This variability may increase with inbreeding. Selfing, the most extreme form of inbreeding, increases the variability of the IBD value shared by siblings, and thus has a higher efficiency for QTL mapping than random mating. In self-incompatible organisms, sib mating is the closest form of inbreeding. Similar to selfing, sib mating may also increase the power of QTL detection relative to random mating. In this study, we develop an IBD-based method under sib mating designs for QTL mapping. The efficiency of sib mating is then compared with random mating. Monte Carlo simulations show that sib mating designs notably increase the power for QTL detection. When power is intermediate, the power to detect a QTL using full-sib mating is, on average, 7% higher than under random mating. In addition, the IBD-based method proposed in this paper can be used to combine data from multiple families. As a result, the estimated QTL parameters can be applied to a wide statistical inference space relating to the entire reference population. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Bayesian quantitative trait loci mapping for multiple traits

Most quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping experiments typically collect phenotypic data on multiple correlated complex traits. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive genomewide mapping strategy for correlated traits in the literature. We develop Bayesian multiple-QTL mapping methods for correlated continuous traits using two multivariate models: one that assumes the same genetic model for all traits, the traditional multivariate model, and the other known as the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model that allows different genetic models for different traits. We develop computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for performing joint analysis. We conduct extensive simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed methods and to compare with the conventional single-trait model. Our methods have been implemented in the freely available package R/qtlbim (http://www.qtlbim.org), which greatly facilitates the general usage of the Bayesian methodology for unraveling the genetic architecture of complex traits.     

Multiple interval mapping for quantitative trait loci.

A new statistical method for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL), called multiple interval mapping (MIM), is presented. It uses multiple marker intervals simultaneously to fit multiple putative QTL directly in the model for mapping QTL. The MIM model is based on Cockerham's model for interpreting genetic parameters and the method of maximum likelihood for estimating genetic parameters. With the MIM approach, the precision and power of QTL mapping could be improved. Also, epistasis between QTL, genotypic values of individuals, and heritabilities of quantitative traits can be readily estimated and analyzed. Using the MIM model, a stepwise selection procedure with likelihood ratio test statistic as a criterion is proposed to identify QTL. This MIM method was applied to a mapping data set of radiata pine on three traits: brown cone number, tree diameter, and branch quality scores. Based on the MIM result, seven, six, and five QTL were detected for the three traits, respectively. The detected QTL individually contributed from approximately 1 to 27% of the total genetic variation. Significant epistasis between four pairs of QTL in two traits was detected, and the four pairs of QTL contributed approximately 10.38 and 14.14% of the total genetic variation. The asymptotic variances of QTL positions and effects were also provided to construct the confidence intervals. The estimated heritabilities were 0.5606, 0.5226, and 0. 3630 for the three traits, respectively. With the estimated QTL effects and positions, the best strategy of marker-assisted selection for trait improvement for a specific purpose and requirement can be explored. The MIM FORTRAN program is available on the worldwide web (http://www.stat.sinica.edu.tw/chkao/).     

Marker pair selection for mapping quantitative trait loci

Mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) for backcross and F(2) populations may be set up as a multiple linear regression problem, where marker types are the regressor variables. It has been shown previously that flanking markers absorb all information on isolated QTL. Therefore, selection of pairs of markers flanking QTL is useful as a direct approach to QTL detection. Alternatively, selected pairs of flanking markers can be used as cofactors in composite interval mapping (CIM). Overfitting is a serious problem, especially if the number of regressor variables is large. We suggest a procedure denoted as marker pair selection (MPS) that uses model selection criteria for multiple linear regression. Markers enter the model in pairs, which reduces the number of models to be considered, thus alleviating the problem of overfitting and increasing the chances of detecting QTL. MPS entails an exhaustive search per chromosome to maximize the chance of finding the best-fitting models. A simulation study is conducted to study the merits of different model selection criteria for MPS. On the basis of our results, we recommend the Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC) for use in practice.     

Lineage-specific mapping of quantitative trait loci

We present an approach for quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, termed as ‘lineage-specific QTL mapping'', for inferring allelic changes of QTL evolution along with branches in a phylogeny. We describe and analyze the simplest case: by adding a third taxon into the normal procedure of QTL mapping between pairs of taxa, such inferences can be made along lineages to a presumed common ancestor. Although comparisons of QTL maps among species can identify homology of QTLs by apparent co-location, lineage-specific mapping of QTL can classify homology into (1) orthology (shared origin of QTL) versus (2) paralogy (independent origin of QTL within resolution of map distance). In this light, we present a graphical method that identifies six modes of QTL evolution in a three taxon comparison. We then apply our model to map lineage-specific QTLs for inbreeding among three taxa of yellow monkey-flower: Mimulus guttatus and two inbreeders M. platycalyx and M. micranthus, but critically assuming outcrossing was the ancestral state. The two most common modes of homology across traits were orthologous (shared ancestry of mutation for QTL alleles). The outbreeder M. guttatus had the fewest lineage-specific QTL, in accordance with the presumed ancestry of outbreeding. Extensions of lineage-specific QTL mapping to other types of data and crosses, and to inference of ancestral QTL state, are discussed.     

A general mixture model for mapping quantitative trait loci by using molecular markers

Summary In a segregating population a quantitative trait may be considered to follow a mixture of (normal) distributions, the mixing proportions being based on Mendelian segregation rules. A general and flexible mixture model is proposed for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) by using molecular markers. A method is discribed to fit the model to data. The model makes it possible to (1) analyse non-normally distributed traits such as lifetimes, counts or percentages in addition to normally distributed traits, (2) reduce environmental variation by taking into account the effects of experimental design factors and interaction between genotype and environment, (3) reduce genotypic variation by taking into account the effects of two or more QTLs simultaneously, (4) carry out a (combined) analysis of different population types, (5) estimate recombination frequencies between markers or use known marker distances, (6) cope with missing marker observations, (7) use markers as covariables in detection and mapping of QTLs, and finally to (8) implement the mapping in standard statistical packages.     

Mixed linear model approach for mapping quantitative trait loci underlying crop seed traits

The crop seed is a complex organ that may be composed of the diploid embryo, the triploid endosperm and the diploid maternal tissues. According to the genetic features of seed characters, two genetic models for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) of crop seed traits are proposed, with inclusion of maternal effects, embryo or endosperm effects of QTL, environmental effects and QTL-by-environment (QE) interactions. The mapping population can be generated either from double back-cross of immortalized F₂ (IF₂) to the two parents, from random-cross of IF₂ or from selfing of IF₂ population. Candidate marker intervals potentially harboring QTLs are first selected through one-dimensional scanning across the whole genome. The selected candidate marker intervals are then included in the model as cofactors to control background genetic effects on the putative QTL(s). Finally, a QTL full model is constructed and model selection is conducted to eliminate false positive QTLs. The genetic main effects of QTLs, QE interaction effects and the corresponding P-values are computed by Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Gaussian mixed linear model via Gibbs sampling. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to investigate the reliability and efficiency of the proposed method. The simulation results showed that the proposed method had higher power to accurately detect simulated QTLs and properly estimated effect of these QTLs. To demonstrate the usefulness, the proposed method was used to identify the QTLs underlying fiber percentage in an upland cotton IF₂ population. A computer software, QTLNetwork-Seed, was developed for QTL analysis of seed traits.