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1.
Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV 2) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. Received: January 12, 2000 / Accepted: February 8, 2000  相似文献   

2.
Killer-sensitive coexistence in metapopulations of micro-organisms   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Many micro-organisms are known to produce efficient toxic substances against conspecifics and closely related species. The widespread coexistence of killer (toxin producer) and sensitive (non-producer) strains is a puzzle calling for a theoretical explanation. Based on stochastic cellular automaton simulations and the corresponding semi-analytical configuration-field approximation models, we suggest that metapopulation dynamics offers a plausible rationale for the maintenance of polymorphism in killer-sensitive systems. A slight trade-off between toxin production and population growth rate is sufficient to maintain the regional coexistence of toxic and sensitive strains, if toxic killing is a local phenomenon restricted to small habitat patches and local populations regularly go extinct and are renewed via recolonizations from neighbouring patches. Pattern formation on the regional scale does not play a decisive part in this mechanism, but the local manner of interactions is essential.  相似文献   

3.
  1. Habitat modification and fragmentation are key factors responsible for fish population decline worldwide. Previous assessments documented a total of 72 species extinctions for the sole class of Actinopterygii. However, global extinctions are difficult to monitor or study based on fossil records. By contrast, local extinctions occurring at the population level are easier to study. Given this context, an important question relates to whether extinction dynamics studied at the local scale can provide useful information to understand extinctions occurring at larger scales. This would be the case if local extinctions were not balanced by recolonisation as in a classic metapopulation. Our aim is thus to explain the observed regional (per basin) persistence of 252 fish populations by testing contribution of local extinction rates and more generally metapopulation dynamics components.
  2. To address this aim, we used the annual extinction probability of 252 regional populations of up to 14 species inhabiting 18 coastal rivers, which became isolated c. 8,500 years ago. We specifically compared extinction probabilities obtained by seven theoretical models to investigate whether regional extinction rates (i.e. loss from a river system) were correlated to local extinction rates (i.e. loss from an occupied site) and the role of metapopulation dynamics to explain regional persistence.
  3. Using empirical data, we showed the importance of variables related to metapopulation dynamics to explain extinction rates across the 18 river systems. As expected, the regional extinction rate decreased with the colonisation rate, area, metapopulation size, and percentage of occupied localities. By contrast, an inconsistent relationship emerged between regional and local extinction rates, as species with high local extinction rates were not particularly prone to regional extinction.
  4. Our results provide strong support for the contribution of colonisation rates to explain persistence. Overall, our results show that the equilibrium number of occupied localities could be a good predictor of the long-term persistence of metapopulations in rivers. Finally, our results suggest the importance of connectivity to maintain sustainable populations within the river system.
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4.
Regional persistence of species requires a positive balance between colonizations and local extinctions. In this study, we examined the amount of colonizations and extinctions and their likelihood as a function of patch size, isolation, and habitat characteristics of a riparian perennial plant, Erigeron acer subsp. decoloratus. We also studied the importance of patch dynamics to the regional population growth. Over five successive years, we counted the number of plant patches along 43 km of riverside. Most patches were small in area and population size. The annual finite growth rate in the number of patches varied between years, but the geometric mean was close to 1.0, indicating a viable patch network in spite of local extinctions. Extinction rate was highest on steep slopes and for small patches with few individual plants and a small patch area. When the patches were classified into different stage classes, the most common fate was stasis, i.e., the patch remained at the same stage. Patch survival and local, within-patch dynamics were most important during this five-year period. Between-patch dynamics (including colonization for example) accounted for 5–10% of annual transitions. The overall dynamics were relatively similar to those of other plant species subjected to riparian disturbance regimes. In the long run, the survival of the species depends on how well it is able to escape from competition from forest and meadow species and track the availability of suitable habitats. This kind of habitat tracking differs from classical metapopulation dynamics. In the former, local extinctions occur as a consequence of adverse changes in the habitat and recolonizations are rare, whereas metapopulation models assume a highly persistent habitat structure with frequent recolonizations. In this respect, the regional dynamics of perennial plants in disturbed riparian habitats may differ from classical metapopulations.  相似文献   

5.
Eco‐evolutionary dynamics are now recognized to be highly relevant for population and community dynamics. However, the impact of evolutionary dynamics on spatial patterns, such as the occurrence of classical metapopulation dynamics, is less well appreciated. Here, we analyse the evolutionary consequences of spatial network connectivity and topology for dispersal strategies and quantify the eco‐evolutionary feedback in terms of altered classical metapopulation dynamics. We find that network properties, such as topology and connectivity, lead to predictable spatio‐temporal correlations in fitness expectations. These spatio‐temporally stable fitness patterns heavily impact evolutionarily stable dispersal strategies and lead to eco‐evolutionary feedbacks on landscape level metrics, such as the number of occupied patches, the number of extinctions and recolonizations as well as metapopulation extinction risk and genetic structure. Our model predicts that classical metapopulation dynamics are more likely to occur in dendritic networks, and especially in riverine systems, compared to other types of landscape configurations. As it remains debated whether classical metapopulation dynamics are likely to occur in nature at all, our work provides an important conceptual advance for understanding the occurrence of classical metapopulation dynamics which has implications for conservation and management of spatially structured populations.  相似文献   

6.
Patch occupancy surveys are commonly used to parameterize metapopulation models. If isolation predicts patch occupancy, this is generally attributed to a balance between distance-dependent recolonization and spatially independent extinctions. We investigated whether similar patterns could also be generated by a process of spatially correlated extinctions following a unique colonization event (analogous to nonequilibrium processes in island biogeography). We simulated effects of spatially correlated extinctions on patterns of patch occupancy among pikas (Ochotona princeps) at Bodie, California, using randomly located extinction disks to represent the likely effects of predation. Our simulations produced similar patterns to those cited as evidence of balanced metapopulation dynamics. Simulations using a variety of disk sizes and patch configurations confirmed that our results are potentially applicable to a broad range of species and sites. Analyses of the observed patterns of patch occupancy at Bodie revealed little evidence of rescue effects and strong evidence that most recolonizations are ephemeral in nature. Persistence will be overestimated if static or declining patterns of patch occupancy are mistakenly attributed to dynamically stable metapopulation processes. Consequently, simple patch occupancy surveys should not be considered as substitutes for detailed experimental tests of hypothesized population processes, particularly when conservation concerns are involved.  相似文献   

7.
ThomasRanius 《Ecography》2007,30(5):716-726
Ancient and dead trees are declining habitats harbouring many threatened species. These habitats are naturally patchy, and inhabiting species might exhibit metapopulation dynamics at a small spatial scale. In this study, the demography and metapopulation dynamics was analysed for Osmoderma eremita , which is an endangered beetle species associated with tree hollows in Europe. Extinction risks of O. eremita populations were predicted using Monte Carlo simulations based on time series of population assessments. Predicted occurrence patterns were consistent with field observations from an area with many small stands in which the populations are believed to have been more or less isolated from each other during the last 150–200 yr. Population growth was found to be density dependent. Carrying capacity was proportional to the volume of wood mould (i.e. loose material of dead wood in the tree hollows), which varied widely between hollow trees. This generates large differences in local extinction risks between hollow trees. The predicted metapopulation extinction risk was much higher if the habitat dynamics (formation, gradual increase and deterioration of tree hollows) were taken into consideration than in predictions yielded by models in which the amount of wood mould was assumed to be constant over time. Thus, this system has features from both mainland-island metapopulations and habitat-tracking metapopulations, and is rather far from a classic metapopulation. For the long-term persistence of the species in hollow trees, the habitat dynamics seem to be more important than demographic processes. Since the formation and deterioration of suitable tree are partly stochastic processes, there is a considerable extinction risk for many O. eremita populations, because they mainly rely on only one or a few trees with large amounts of wood mould.  相似文献   

8.
With the interest in conservation biology shifting towards processes from patterns, and to populations from communities, the theory of metapopulation dynamics is replacing the equilibrium theory of island biogeography as the population ecology paradigm in conservation biology. The simplest models of metapopulation dynamics make predictions about the effects of habitat fragmentation - size and isolation of habitat patches - on metapopulation persistence. The simple models may be enriched by considerations of the effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the size and extinction probability of local populations. Environmental stochasticity affects populations at two levels: it makes local extinctions more probable, and it also decreases metapopulation persistence time by increasing the correlation of extinction events across populations. Some controversy has arisen over the significance of correlated extinctions, and how they may affect the optimal subdivision of metapopulations to maximize their persistence time.  相似文献   

9.
局域种群的Allee效应和集合种群的同步性   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
从包含Allee效应的局域种群出发,建立了耦合映像格子模型,即集合种群模型.通过分析和计算机模拟表明:(1)当局域种群受到Allee效应强度较大时,集合种群同步灭绝;(2)而当Allee效应强度相对较弱时,通过稳定局域种群动态(减少混沌)使得集合种群发生同步波动,而这种同步波动能够增加集合种群的灭绝风险;(3)斑块间的连接程度对集合种群同步波动的发生有很大的影响,适当的破碎化有利于集合种群的续存.全局迁移和Allee效应结合起来增加了集合种群同步波动的可能,从而增加集合种群的灭绝风险.这些结果对理解同步性的机理、利用同步机理来制定物种保护策略和害虫防治都有重要的意义.  相似文献   

10.
  • 1 The metapopulation metaphor is increasingly used to explain the spatial dynamics of animal populations. However, metapopulation structure is difficult to identify in long‐lived species that are widely distributed in stochastic environments, where they can resist extinctions. The literature on mammals may not provide supporting evidence for classic metapopulation dynamics, which call for the availability of discrete habitat patches, asynchrony in local population dynamics, evidence for extinction and colonization processes, and dispersal between local populations.
  • 2 Empirical evidence for metapopulation structure among mammals may exist when applying more lenient criteria. To meet these criteria, mammals should live in landscapes as discrete local breeding populations, and their demography should be asynchronous.
  • 3 We examined the literature for empirical evidence in support of the classical criteria set by Hanski (1999 ), and for the more lenient subset of criteria proposed by Elmhagen & Angerbjörn (2001 ). We suggest circumstances where metapopulation theory could be important in understanding population processes in mammals of different body sizes.
  • 4 The patchy distribution of large (>100 kg) mammals and dispersal often motivate inferences in support of a metapopulation structure. Published studies seldom address the full suite of classical criteria. However, studies on small mammals are more likely to record classic metapopulation criteria than those on large mammals. The slow turnover rate that is typical for medium‐sized and large mammals apparently makes it difficult to identify a metapopulation structure during studies of short duration.
  • 5 To identify a metapopulation structure, studies should combine the criteria set by Hanski (1999 ) and Elmhagen & Angerbjörn (2001 ). Mammals frequently live in fragmented landscapes, and processes involved in the maintenance of a metapopulation structure should be considered in conservation planning and management.
  相似文献   

11.
Abstract.— Partial self-fertilization is common in higher plants. Mating system variation is known to have important consequences for how genetic variation is distributed within and among populations. Selfing is known to reduce effective population size, and inbreeding species are therefore expected to have lower levels of genetic variation than comparable out crossing taxa. However, several recent empirical studies have shown that reductions in genetic diversity within populations of inbreeding species are far greater than the expected reductions based on the reduced effective population size. Two different processes have been argued to cause these patterns, selective sweeps (or hitchhiking) and background selection. Both are expected to be most effective in reducing genetic variation in regions of low recombination rates. Selfing is known to reduce the effective recombination rate, and inbreeding taxa are thus thought to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of hitchhiking or background selection. Here I propose a third explanation for the lower-than-expected levels of genetic diversity within populations of selfing species; recurrent extinctions and recolonizations of local populations, also known as metapopulation dynamics. I show that selfing in a metapopulation setting can result in large reductions in genetic diversity within populations, far greater than expected based the lower effective population size inbreeding species is expected to have. The reason for this depends on an interaction between selfing and pollen migration.  相似文献   

12.
The population structure of the mycophagous beetle Phalacrus substriatus is characterized by many small, local populations interconnected by migration over a small spatial scale (10 × 75 m2). Each local P. substriatus population has a relatively short expected persistence time, but persistence of the species occurs due to a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. This nonequilibrium population structure can have profound effects on how the genetic variation is structured between and within populations. Theoretical models have stated that the genetic differentiation among local populations will be enhanced relative to an island model at equilibrium if the number of colonizers is less than approximately twice the number of migrants among local populations. To study these effects, a set of 50 local P. substriatus populations were surveyed over a four-year period to record any naturally occurring extinctions and recolonizations. The per population colonization and extinction rate were 0.237 and 0.275, respectively. Mark-recapture techniques were used to estimate a number of demographic parameters: local population size (N = 11.1), migration rate , number of colonizers (k = 4.0), and the probability of common origin of colonizers (φ = 0.5). The theoretically predicted level of differentiation among local populations (measured as Wright's FST) was 0.070. Genetic data obtained from an electrophoretic survey of seven polymorphic loci gave an estimated degree of differentiation of 0.077. There was thus a good agreement between the empirical results and the theoretical predictions. Young populations had significantly higher levels of differentiation than old, more established populations . The extinction-recolonization dynamics resulted in an overall increase in the genetic differentiation among local populations by c. 40%. The global effective population size was also reduced by c. 55%. The results give clear evidence to how nonequilibrium processes shape the genetic structure of populations.  相似文献   

13.
The applicability of metapopulation theory to large mammals   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Metapopulation theory has become a common framework in conservation biology and it is sometimes suggested that a metapopulation approach should be used for management of large mammals. However, it has also been suggested that metapopulation theory would not be applicable to species with long generations compared to those with short ones. In this paper, we review how and on what empirical ground metapopulation terminology has been applied to insects, small mammals and large mammals. The review showed that the metapopulation term sometimes was used for population networks which only fulfilled the broadest possible definition of a metapopulation, i.e. they were subpopulations connected by migrating individuals. We argue that the metapopulation concept should be reserved for networks that also show some kind of metapopulation dynamics. Otherwise it applies to almost all populations and loses its substance. We found much empirical support for metapopulation dynamics in both insects and small mammals, but not in large mammals. A possible reason is the methods used to confirm the existence of metapopulation dynamics. For insects and small mammals, the common approach is to study population turnover through patch occupancy data. Such data is difficult to obtain for large mammals, since longer temporal scales need to be covered to record extinctions and colonizations. Still, many populations of large mammals are exposed to habitat fragmentation and the resulting subpopulations sometimes have high risks of extinction. If there is migration between the subpopulations, the metapopulation framework could provide valuable information on their population dynamics. We suggest that a metapopulation approach can be interesting for populations of large mammals, when there are discrete breeding subpopulations and when these subpopulations have different growth rates and demographic fates. Thus, a comparison of the subpopulations’ demographic fates, rather than subpopulation turnover, can be a feasible alternative for studies of metapopulation dynamics in large mammals.  相似文献   

14.
Allee-like effects in metapopulation dynamics   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
The existences of the Allee effect at the local population level and of the Allee-like effect at the metapopulation level are important for both ecology and conservation. Although there have been a great many papers on the Allee effect, they have mainly referred to only local populations and have not dealt with the relationship between the two. In this paper, we begin with local population dynamics and then construct a model including both local population and metapopulation dynamics. Then we simulate with computer at these two levels. The results indicate that the Allee-like effect in a metapopulation may emerge from the imposed Allee effect at the local population level. This threshold fraction of occupied patches below which the metapopulation goes extinct is seriously affected by the per capita migration rate, the survival rate during migration and the initial population size on the occupied patches. We also find that severe demographic stochasticity may compound the metapopulation extinction risk posed by the Allee effect. These conclusions are helpful for nature conservation, especially for the preservation of rare species.  相似文献   

15.
Long-term maintenance of genetic diversity is affected by ecological forces that are driven in turn by current levels of genetic variation. The strength of population regulation and the consequent patterns of population fluctuations determine the likelihood of genetic changes considered pivotal for rapid speciation. However, genetic diversity in the susceptibility to regulatory forces can reduce the magnitude of such fluctuations and minimize the likelihood of genetic revolutions. A group of populations that experiences local extinctions and recolonizations may hold lower levels of genetic diversity than in the absence of such extinctions, but local adaption, which provides enhanced genetic diversity, can reduce the likelihood of local extinctions. Tightly regulated populations experience different selection pressures than poorly regulated populations, although tighter regulation itself can evolve. When genotypic variation affects the outcome of interspecific interactions on a local scale, this effect, coupled with appropriate spatial variation, can enhance the resilience of the interactive system.  相似文献   

16.
The effects of migration in a network of patch populations, or metapopulation, are extremely important for predicting the possibility of extinctions both at a local and a global scale. Migration between patches synchronizes local populations and bestows upon them identical dynamics (coherent or synchronous oscillations), a feature that is understood to enhance the risk of global extinctions. This is one of the central theoretical arguments in the literature associated with conservation ecology. Here, rather than restricting ourselves to the study of coherent oscillations, we examine other types of synchronization phenomena that we consider to be equally important. Intermittent and out-of-phase synchronization are but two examples that force us to reinterpret some classical results of the metapopulation theory. In addition, we discuss how asynchronous processes (for example, random timing of dispersal) can paradoxically generate metapopulation synchronization, another non-intuitive result that cannot easily be explained by the standard theory.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract Many species exist as metapopulations in balance between local population extinction and recolonization. The effect of these processes on average population differentiation, within-deme diversity, and specieswide diversity has been considered previously. In this paper, coalescent simulations of Slatkin's propagule-pool and migrant-pool models are used to characterize the distribution of neutral genetic diversity within demes (πs), diversity in the metapopulation a whole (TTT), the ratio F ST= (πt–πS)/πT, Tajima's D statistic, and several ratios of gene-tree branch lengths. Using these distributions, power to detect differences in key metapopulation parameter values is determined under contrasting sampling regimes. The results indicate that it will be difficult to use sequence data from a single locus to detect a history of extinctions and recolonizations in a metapopulation because of high genealogical variance, the loss of diversity due to reductions in effective population size, and the fact that a genealogy of lineages from different demes under Slatkin's model differs from a neutral coalescent only in its time scale. Genetic indices of gene-tree shape that capture the effects of extinction/recolonization on both external branches and the length of the genealogy as a whole will provide the best indication of metapopulation dynamics if several lineages are sampled from several different demes.  相似文献   

18.
Spatial variation in phenology can occur at small spatial scales over which individuals can disperse or forage within one generation. Previous studies have assumed that variations in phenological peaks are caused by differences in abiotic environmental characteristics. However, environments should generally be similar among local habitats over small spatial scales. When the local population size is small, the phenological peak of the local population should be strongly affected by the variation in timing expressed by individuals. If a regional population consists of small local subpopulations (e.g., a metapopulation), the stochastic processes regulated by population sizes may explain the spatial variation in phenology. In this study, we quantitatively evaluated the extent of the spatial and annual variations in the breeding phenology of the forest green tree frog, Rhacophorus arboreus habiting a small area (<10 km2). The spatial variation in phenological peaks among 25 breeding sites was large over 6 years. This spatial variation was not explained by differences in air temperature or water depth. Randomization tests revealed that a large portion of the spatial variation could be explained by differences in population size, without considering site-specific factors. Annual variations in phenological peaks tended to be greater for smaller populations. These results imply that the stochastic process might have caused the spatial and annual variations in the phenological peaks of R. arboreus observed in the study region. Understanding spatiotemporal variation in phenology determined by stochastic process would be important to better predict interspecific interactions and (meta)population dynamics at small spatial scales.  相似文献   

19.
Interpretation of spatially structured population systems is critically dependent on levels of migration between habitat patches. If there is considerable movement, with each individual visiting several patches, there is one ”patchy population”; if there is intermediate movement, with most individuals staying within their natal patch, there is a metapopulation; and if (virtually) no movement occurs, then the populations are separate (Harrison 1991, 1994). These population types actually represent points along a continuum of much to no mobility in relation to patch structure. Therefore, interpretation of the effects of spatial structure on the dynamics of a population system must be accompanied by information on mobility. We use empirical data on movements by ringlet butterflies, Aphantopus hyperantus, to investigate two key issues that need to be resolved in spatially-structured population systems. First, do local habitat patches contain largely independent local populations (the unit of a metapopulation), or merely aggregations of adult butterflies (as in patchy populations)? Second, what are the effects of patch area on migration in and out of the patches, since patch area varies considerably within most real population systems, and because human landscape modification usually results in changes in habitat patch sizes? Mark-release-recapture (MRR) data from two spatially structured study systems showed that 63% and 79% of recaptures remained in the same patch, and thus it seems reasonable to call both systems metapopulations, with some capacity for separate local dynamics to take place in different local patches. Per capita immigration and emigration rates declined with increasing patch area, while the resident fraction increased. Actual numbers of emigrants either stayed the same or increased with area. The effect of patch area on movement of individuals in the system are exactly what we would have expected if A. hyperantus were responding to habitat geometry. Large patches acted as local populations (metapopulation units) and small patches simply as locations with aggregations (units of patchy populations), all within 0.5 km2. Perhaps not unusually, our study system appears to contain a mixture of metapopulation and patchy-population attributes.  相似文献   

20.
Marine organisms typically fall into two main categories: those with a high level of population structuring and those with a low one. The first are often found to be poor dispersers, following isolation by distance or stepping-stone theoretical predictions. The second are commonly associated with high-dispersal taxa and are best described by the island model. Deep-sea hydrothermal vent systems represent a good model for studying one-dimensional metapopulations. Whereas isolation by distance might be expected to be the rule in such a system for species with limited dispersal capabilities, a biological paradox can be observed: an apparent genetic homogeneity in some vent species with short-scale dispersal potential, in a one-dimensional fragmented habitat. This can be explained if one key assumption of the existing models is not met: gene flow between populations and genetic drift may not have the time to equilibrate. Geophysical models revealed that hydrothermal convection is intrinsically unstable, inducing processes of coalescence or splitting of venting areas in a chaotic manner. This is likely to generate frequent extinctions and recolonizations. Theoretical genetic predictions derived from extinctions/recolonizations cannot satisfactorily model a situation where habitat shifts are frequent and constantly affect the metapopulation equilibrium. Because neither the island and the stepping-stone models nor the classical metapopulation models resemble the hydrothermal vent reality, we present here a realistic model developed to provide a compromise between existing conceptual models and what is currently known of the biology and ecology of one of the most peculiar and best-studied vent species, the polychaete Alvinella pompejana. This model allows us to define the boundaries between which the metapopulation is evolutionary stable in an unstable context. Simulations show different patterns in which metapopulation size and recolonization vary but reach an equilibrium despite chaotic vent extinctions. In contrast, the model also shows that displacing habitat continuously affects the equilibrium between gene flow and drift. As a consequence, the time required to balance these evolutionary forces can never be attained, leading to chaotic fluctuations in F-statistics. Those fluctuations are mainly due to stochastic changes of the interpatch distance which affect migration rates. The shifting of active zones of venting can episodically counterbalance differentiation and allow a long-term genetic homogenization at the ridge scale. These findings lead to a new concept in which the exchanges between populations would mainly depend on the habitat's movements along the ridge axis rather than the organim's dispersal. We therefore propose a new model based on patch-network displacements in which transient contact zones allow low levels of gene flow throughout the metapopulation.  相似文献   

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