Epizootiology of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging cervids in Colorado and Wyoming

Surveillance and epidemic modeling were used to study chronic wasting disease (CWD), a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that occurs naturally among sympatric, free-ranging deer (Odocoileus spp.) and Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) populations in contiguous portions of northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming (USA). We used clinical case submissions to identify endemic areas, then used immunohistochemistry to detect CWD-infected individuals among 5,513 deer and elk sampled via geographically-focused random surveys. Estimated overall prevalence (prevalence, 95% confidence interval) in mule deer (4.9%, 4.1 to 5.7%) was higher than in white-tailed deer (2.1%, 0.5 to 3.4%) or elk (0.5%, 0.001 to 1%) in endemic areas; CWD was not detected in outlying portions of either state. Within species, CWD prevalence varied widely among biologically- or geographically-segregated subpopulations within the 38,137 km2 endemic area but appeared stable over a 3-yr period. The number of clinical CWD cases submitted from an area was a poor predictor of local CWD prevalence, and prevalence was typically > or =1% before clinical cases were first detected in most areas. Under plausible transmission assumptions that mimicked field data, prevalence in epidemic models reached about 1% in 15 to 20 yr and about 15% in 37 to 50 yr. Models forecast population declines once prevalence exceeded about 5%. Both field and model data supported the importance of lateral transmission in CWD dynamics. Based on prevalence, spatial distribution, and modeling, we suggest CWD has been occurring in northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming for >30 yr, and may be best represented as an epizootic with a protracted time-scale.     

Chronic Wasting Disease: Transmission Mechanisms and the Possibility of Harvest Management

We develop a model of CWD management by nonselective deer harvest, currently the most feasible approach available for managing CWD in wild populations. We use the model to explore the effects of 6 common harvest strategies on disease prevalence and to identify potential optimal harvest policies for reducing disease prevalence without population collapse. The model includes 4 deer categories (juveniles, adult females, younger adult males, older adult males) that may be harvested at different rates, a food-based carrying capacity, which influences juvenile survival but not adult reproduction or survival, and seasonal force of infection terms for each deer category under differing frequency-dependent transmission dynamics resulting from environmental and direct contact mechanisms. Numerical experiments show that the interval of transmission coefficients β where the disease can be controlled is generally narrow and efficiency of a harvest policy to reduce disease prevalence depends crucially on the details of the disease transmission mechanism, in particular on the intensity of disease transmission to juveniles and the potential differences in the behavior of older and younger males that influence contact rates. Optimal harvest policy to minimize disease prevalence for each of the assumed transmission mechanisms is shown to depend on harvest intensity. Across mechanisms, a harvest that focuses on antlered deer, without distinguishing between age classes reduces disease prevalence most consistently, whereas distinguishing between young and older antlered deer produces higher uncertainty in the harvest effects on disease prevalence. Our results show that, despite uncertainties, a modelling approach can determine classes of harvest strategy that are most likely to be effective in combatting CWD.     

Estimating chronic wasting disease effects on mule deer recruitment and population growth

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a prion disease of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), accelerates mortality and in so doing has the potential to influence population dynamics. Although effects on mule deer survival are clear, how CWD affects recruitment is less certain. We studied how prion infection influenced the number of offspring raised to weaning per adult (≥2 yr old) female mule deer and subsequently the estimated growth rate (λ) of an infected deer herd. Infected and presumably uninfected radio-collared female deer were observed with their fawns in late summer (August-September) during three consecutive years (2006-2008) in the Table Mesa area of Boulder, Colorado, USA. We counted the number of fawns accompanying each female, then used a fully Bayesian model to estimate recruitment by infected and uninfected females and the effect of the disease on λ. On average, infected females weaned 0.95 fawns (95% credible interval=0.56-1.43) whereas uninfected females weaned 1.34 fawns (95% credible interval=1.09-1.61); the probability that uninfected females weaned more fawns than infected females was 0.93). We used estimates of prevalence to weight recruitment and survival parameters in the transition matrix of a three-age, single-sex matrix model and then used the matrix to calculate effects of CWD on λ. When effects of CWD on both survival and recruitment were included, the modeled λ was 0.97 (95% credible interval = 0.82-1.09). Effects of disease on λ were mediated almost entirely by elevated mortality of infected animals. We conclude that although CWD may affect mule deer recruitment, these effects seem to be sufficiently small that they can be omitted in estimating the influences of CWD on population growth rate.     

Prevalence of chronic wasting disease and bovine tuberculosis in free-ranging deer and elk in South Dakota

Heads of hunter-harvested deer and elk were collected throughout South Dakota (USA) and within established chronic wasting disease (CWD) surveillance areas from 1997-2002 to determine infection with CWD and bovine tuberculosis (TB). We used immunohistochemistry to detect CWD-infected individuals among 1,672 deer and elk sampled via geographically targeted surveillance. A total of 537 elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), 813 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and 322 mule deer (O. hemionus) was sampled for CWD. Estimated overall prevalence and associated confidence intervals (95%) in white-tailed deer was 0.001% (0-0.007%). Similarly, estimated overall prevalence in elk and mule deer was 0.0% (0-0.004%) and 0.0% (0-0.011%), respectively. A total of 401 elk, 1,638 white-tailed deer, and 207 mule deer was sampled for TB. Estimated overall prevalence of infection with TB in elk harvested in South Dakota was 0.0% (0-0.009%). Similarly, estimated overall prevalence of TB in white-tailed deer and mule deer harvested throughout South Dakota was 0.0% (0-0.002%) and 0.0% (0-0.018%), respectively.     

Relative vulnerability of chronic wasting disease infected mule deer to vehicle collisions

We estimated chronic wasting disease (CWD) prevalence among vehicle-killed mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in select data analysis units (DAUs) in northern Colorado, USA, and compared these with estimated CWD prevalence among mule deer of the same sex sampled in the vicinity of collision sites to assess relative vulnerability of CWD-infected individuals to vehicle collisions. Twenty-five of 171 vehicle-killed mule deer tested positive for CWD (overall prevalence=0.146, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.097-0.208); 173 of 2,317 deer sampled in the vicinity of these vehicle-killed deer tested positive (overall prevalence=0.075, 95% CI=0.064-0.085). In nine of ten DAU x sex comparisons, relative risk of CWD infection tended to be higher among vehicle-killed deer (range of estimated relative risks=1.6-15.9). Spongiform encephalopathy was detected in 12 of 20 (60%; 95% CI=39-81%) CWD-positive deer killed by vehicles and in 79 of 180 (44%; 95% CI=37-52%) CWD-positive deer detected via random sampling (relative risk=1.37; 95% CI=0.92-2.03), suggesting that infected deer killed by vehicles tended to be in later stages of disease than those killed by hunters. Our data offer evidence that CWD-infected mule deer may be relatively vulnerable to vehicle collisions. It follows that sampling of vehicle-killed mule deer may be exploited to increase efficiency of surveillance programs designed to detect new foci of CWD infection; moreover, evidence of increased susceptibility to vehicle collisions may aid in understanding vulnerability of CWD-infected individuals to other forms of death, particularly predation.     

Epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in captive white-tailed and mule deer

The natural occurrence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in a 1993 cohort of captive white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) afforded the opportunity to describe epidemic dynamics in this species and to compare dynamics with those seen in contemporary cohorts of captive mule deer (O. hemionus) also infected with CWD. The overall incidence of clinical CWD in white-tailed deer was 82% (nine of 11) among individuals that survived >15 mo. Affected white-tailed deer died or were killed because of terminal CWD at age 49-76 mo (x = 59.6 mo, SE = 3.9 mo). Epidemic dynamics of CWD in captive white-tailed deer were similar to dynamics in mule deer cohorts. Incidence of clinical CWD was 57% (4/7) among hand-raised (HR) and 67% (4/6) among dam-raised (DR) mule deer; affected HR mule deer succumbed at 64-86 mo of age (x = 72 mo; SE = 5 mo), and affected DR mule deer died at age 31-58 mo (x = 41.3 mo; SE = 6.1 mo). Sustained horizontal transmission of CWD most plausibly explained epidemic dynamics, but the original source of exposures could not be determined. Apparent differences in mean age at CWD-caused death among these cohorts may be attributable to differences in the timing or intensity of exposure to CWD, and these factors appear to be more likely to influence epidemic dynamics than species differences. It follows that CWD epidemic dynamics in sympatric, free-ranging white-tailed and mule deer sharing habitats in western North American ranges also may be similar.     

Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data

Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.     

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.     

Survival,cause-specific mortality,and population growth of white-tailed deer in western Virginia

Understanding the role of recruitment in population dynamics of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) is important for management. In the central Appalachian Mountains, deer are part of a largely forested ecosystem that supports 3 carnivore species thought to be capable of influencing white-tailed deer recruitment: black bears (Urus americanus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and bobcats (Lynx rufus). Yet little is known about predation, how other environmental factors influence recruitment, or the importance of neonate survival to white-tailed deer population performance in the region. Our objectives were to identify causes of mortality for neonates, analyze effects of landscape attributes on survival of neonates, estimate survival rates for neonates and adult female white-tailed deer, and to model population growth trends based on current vital rates and hypothetical harvest and neonate survival scenarios. During 2019–2020, we captured 57 neonate deer in Bath County, Virginia, USA, by monitoring 38 pregnant females equipped with global positioning system collars and vaginal implant transmitters and by conducting transect searches for recently born neonates. We observed 37 neonate mortalities and identified cause of death using field and genetic evidence. Mortalities included 28 predation events and 9 deaths from other causes (e.g., abandonment, malnutrition, disease). Black bears accounted for 48.6% of neonate mortalities, and 64.2% of predation events (n = 18), followed by bobcats (n = 5) and coyotes (n = 3). Annual survival for adult female deer was 0.871 and neonate survival to 12 weeks old was 0.310. Elevation was a significant predictor of neonate survival; mortality risk increased 20% for every 100-m increase in elevation. Models of annual population growth using observed vital rates predicted an increasing population (λ = 1.10). A 10% increase in female harvest would still result in a potential population increase of 2% (λ = 1.02), but a 20% increase in harvest rate would result in a potential 7% decline (λ = 0.93). Neonate survival was higher near fertile valley bottoms and lower along forested ridges characterized by shallow, infertile soils and limited edge or early successional forests. While predation, largely influenced by black bears, was the leading cause of neonate mortality and contributed to low neonate survival, we observed little evidence of population decline, and suggest there is opportunity for a modest increase in harvest of female deer.     

Spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal, emerging disease of cervids associated with transmissible protease-resistant prion proteins. The potential for CWD to cause dramatic declines in deer and elk populations and perceived human health risks associated with consuming CWD-contaminated venison have led wildlife agencies to embark on extensive CWD control programs, typically involving culling to reduce deer populations. We characterized the spatial distribution of CWD in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Wisconsin to facilitate CWD management. We found that CWD prevalence declined with distance from a central location, was locally correlated at a scale of 3.6 km, and was correlated with deer habitat abundance. The latter result is consistent with patterns expected for a positive relationship between density and prevalence of CWD. We recommend management activities focused on culling in geographic areas with high prevalence to have the greatest probability of removing infected individuals. Further research is needed to elucidate the factors involved in CWD spread and infection rates, especially the role of density-dependent transmission.     

Effects of chronic wasting disease on reproduction and fawn harvest vulnerability in Wisconsin white-tailed deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal, transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that affects free-ranging and captive North American cervids. Although the impacts of CWD on cervid survival have been documented, little is known about the disease impacts on reproduction and recruitment. We used genetic methods and harvest data (2002-04) to reconstruct parentage for a cohort of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns born in spring 2002 and evaluate the effects of CWD infection on reproduction and fawn harvest vulnerability. There was no difference between CWD-positive and CWD-negative male deer in the probability of being a parent. However, CWD-positive females were more likely to be parents than CWD-negative females. Because our results are based on harvested animals, we evaluated the hypothesis that higher parentage rates occurred because fawns with CWD-positive mothers were more vulnerable to harvest. Male fawns with CWD-positive mothers were harvested earlier (>1 mo relative to their mother's date of harvest) and farther away from their mothers than male fawns with CWD-negative mothers. Male fawns with CWD-positive mothers were also harvested much earlier and farther away than female fawns from CWD-positive mothers. Most female fawns (86%) with CWD-positive mothers were harvested from the same section as their mothers, while almost half of male and female fawns with CWD-negative mothers were farther away. We conclude that preclinical stages of CWD infection do not prohibit white-tailed deer from successfully reproducing. However, apparently higher harvest vulnerability of male fawns with CWD-positive mothers suggests that CWD infection may make females less capable of providing adequate parental care to ensure the survival and recruitment of their fawns.     

Implications of chronic wasting disease,cougar predation,and reduced recruitment for elk management

Emerging diseases and expanding carnivore populations may have profound implications for ungulate harvest management and population regulation. To better understand effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) and cougar (Puma concolor) predation, we studied mortality and recruitment of elk (Cervus elaphus) at Wind Cave National Park (WICA) during 2005–2009. We marked 202 elk (83 subadult M and 119 subadult and ad F) with Global Positioning System (GPS) collars, observed 28 deaths during 74,220 days of monitoring, and investigated 42 additional deaths of unmarked elk found dead. Survival rates were similar for males and females and averaged 0.863 (SE = 0.025) annually. Leading causes of mortality included hunting (0.065, SE = 0.019), CWD (0.034, SE = 0.012), and cougar predation (0.029, SE = 0.012). Marked elk killed by hunters and cougars typically were in good physical condition and not infected with CWD. Effects of mortality on population growth were exacerbated by low rates of pregnancy (subadults = 9.5%, SE = 6.6%; ad = 76.9%, SE = 4.2%) and perinatal survival (0.49, SE = 0.085 from 1 Feb to 1 Sep). Chronic wasting disease, increased predation, and reduced recruitment reduced the rate of increase for elk at WICA to approximately λ = 1.00 (SE = 0.027) during the past decade. Lower rates of increase are mitigating effects of elk on park vegetation, other wildlife, and neighboring lands and will facilitate population control, but may reduce opportunities for elk hunting outside the park. © 2011 The Wildlife Society     

Tonsillar biopsy test for chronic wasting disease: Two sampling approaches in mule deer and white-tailed deer

Preclinical antemortem testing of deer (Odocoileus spp.) for chronic wasting disease (CWD) can be important for determining prevalence rates and removing infected individuals from wild populations. Because samples with high numbers of tonsillar follicles are likely to provide earlier detection of CWD than samples with fewer follicles, the method of obtaining follicular samples may be critical when investigating disease prevalence. Between January 2003 and January 2005, white-tailed deer (O. virginianus) in southeast and southwest Minnesota and white-tailed and mule deer (O. hemionus) in Wind Cave National Park, South Dakota, were sampled using dorso-lateral and ventral-medial approaches for collecting tonsillar follicles. We obtained significantly more follicles using a dorso-lateral (median number of follicles = 19) rather than a ventral-medial (median number of follicles = 5.5) approach. No differences were observed in collection of tonsillar follicles that were related to sex, age class, or species of deer. We recommend the dorso-lateral approach for assessing CWD prevalence in deer populations.     

Epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging mule deer: spatial, temporal, and demographic influences on observed prevalence patterns

We analyzed chronic wasting disease (CWD) prevalence data from mule deer populations in northcentral Colorado, USA, to discern the likely influences of temporal, spatial, and demographic factors on patterns observed in naturally infected populations. In addition to reaffirming spatial heterogeneity among wintering mule deer subpopulations, we report marked differences in CWD prevalence by sex and age groups as well as clear local trends of increasing prevalence over a 7-yr period. Prevalence of CWD differed by age (yearling vs. adult), sex, and geographic area at two different spatial scales (game management unit or population unit winter range) and increased over time at both geographic scales. Disease status (positive or negative) was not independent of age for males (n=285, df=6, chi2=18.4, P=0.005) or females (n=387, df=8, chi2=17.2, P=0.028). Among males, prevalence increased and then declined across age classes, peaking in 5- to 6-yr-old individuals; among females, prevalence showed no definite age-related pattern. Demographic, spatial, and temporal factors all appear to contribute to the marked heterogeneity in CWD prevalence in endemic portions of northcentral Colorado, USA. These factors likely combine in various ways to influence epidemic dynamics on both local and broad geographic scales.     

Detection of bias in harvest-based estimates of chronic wasting disease prevalence in mule deer

Diseased animals may exhibit behavioral shifts that increase or decrease their probability of being randomly sampled. In harvest-based sampling approaches, animal movements, changes in habitat utilization, changes in breeding behaviors during harvest periods, or differential susceptibility to harvest via behaviors like hiding or decreased sensitivity to stimuli may result in a non-random sample that biases prevalence estimates. We present a method that can be used to determine whether bias exists in prevalence estimates from harvest samples. Using data from harvested mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) sampled in northcentral Colorado (USA) during fall hunting seasons 1996-98 and Akaike's information criterion (AIC) model selection, we detected within-yr trends indicating potential bias in harvest-based prevalence estimates for chronic wasting disease (CWD). The proportion of CWD-positive deer harvested slightly increased through time within a yr. We speculate that differential susceptibility to harvest or breeding season movements may explain the positive trend in proportion of CWD-positive deer harvested during fall hunting seasons. Detection of bias may provide information about temporal patterns of a disease, suggest biological hypotheses that could further understanding of a disease, or provide wildlife managers with information about when diseased animals are more or less likely to be harvested. Although AIC model selection can be useful for detecting bias in data, it has limited utility in determining underlying causes of bias. In cases where bias is detected in data using such model selection methods, then design-based methods (i.e., experimental manipulation) may be necessary to assign causality.     

Chronic wasting disease management in ranched elk using rectal biopsy testing

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) affecting members of the cervid species, and is one of the few TSEs with an expanding geographic range. Diagnostic limitations, efficient transmission, and the movement of infected animals are important contributing factors in the ongoing spread of disease. Managing CWD in affected populations has proven difficult, relying on population reduction in the case of wild deer and elk, or quarantine and depopulation in farmed cervids. In the present study, we evaluated the effectiveness of managing endemic CWD in a closed elk herd using antemortem sampling combined with both conventional and experimental diagnostic testing, and selective, targeted culling of infected animals. We hypothesized that the real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay, a developing amplification assay, would offer greater detection capabilities over immunohistochemistry (IHC) in the identification of infected animals using recto-anal mucosa associated lymphoid tissue (RAMALT). We further sought to develop a better understanding of CWD epidemiology in elk with various PRNP alleles, and predicted that CWD prevalence would decrease with targeted culling. We found that RT-QuIC identified significantly more CWD-positive animals than IHC using RAMALT tissues (121 vs. 86, respectively, out of 553 unique animals), and that longstanding disease presence was associated with an increasing frequency of less susceptible PRNP alleles. Prevalence of CWD increased significantly over the first two years of the study, implying that refinements in our management strategy are necessary to reduce the prevalence of CWD in this herd.     

Infectious Disease and Grouping Patterns in Mule Deer

Infectious disease dynamics are determined, to a great extent, by the social structure of the host. We evaluated sociality, or the tendency to form groups, in Rocky Mountain mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus) from a chronic wasting disease (CWD) endemic area in Saskatchewan, Canada, to better understand factors that may affect disease transmission. Using group size data collected on 365 radio-collared mule deer (2008–2013), we built a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to evaluate whether factors such as CWD status, season, habitat and time of day, predicted group occurrence. Then, we built another GLMM to determine factors associated with group size. Finally, we used 3 measures of group size (typical, mean and median group sizes) to quantify levels of sociality. We found that mule deer showing clinical signs of CWD were less likely to be reported in groups than clinically healthy deer after accounting for time of day, habitat, and month of observation. Mule deer groups were much more likely to occur in February and March than in July. Mixed-sex groups in early gestation were larger than any other group type in any season. Groups were largest and most likely to occur at dawn and dusk, and in open habitats, such as cropland. We discuss the implication of these results with respect to sociobiology and CWD transmission dynamics.     

Evaluating Spatial Overlap and Relatedness of White-tailed Deer in a Chronic Wasting Disease Management Zone

Wildlife disease transmission, at a local scale, can occur from interactions between infected and susceptible conspecifics or from a contaminated environment. Thus, the degree of spatial overlap and rate of contact among deer is likely to impact both direct and indirect transmission of infectious diseases such chronic wasting disease (CWD) or bovine tuberculosis. We identified a strong relationship between degree of spatial overlap (volume of intersection) and genetic relatedness for female white-tailed deer in Wisconsin’s area of highest CWD prevalence. We used volume of intersection as a surrogate for contact rates between deer and concluded that related deer are more likely to have contact, which may drive disease transmission dynamics. In addition, we found that age of deer influences overlap, with fawns exhibiting the highest degree of overlap with other deer. Our results further support the finding that female social groups have higher contact among related deer which can result in transmission of infectious diseases. We suggest that control of large social groups comprised of closely related deer may be an effective strategy in slowing the transmission of infectious pathogens, and CWD in particular.     

Influence of harvest, climate and wolf predation on Yellowstone elk, 1961-2004

In the period following wolf ( Canis lupus ) reintroduction to Yellowstone National Park (1995–2004), the northern Yellowstone elk ( Cervus elaphus ) herd declined from ∼17 000 to ∼8000 elk (8.1% yr⁻¹). The extent to which wolf predation contributed to this decline is not obvious because the influence of other factors (human harvest and lower than average annual rainfall) on elk dynamics has not been quantified. To assess the contribution of wolf predation to this elk decline, we built and assessed models based on elk-related data prior to wolf reintroduction (1961 to 1995). We then used the best of these models to predict how elk dynamics might have been realized after wolf reintroduction (1995 to 2004) had wolves never been reintroduced. The best performing model predicted 64% of the variance in growth rate and included elk abundance, harvest rate, annual snowfall, and annual precipitation as predictor variables. The best performing models also suggest that harvest may be super-additive. That is, for every one percent increase in harvest rate, elk population growth rate declines by more than one percent. Harvest rate also accounted for ∼47% of the observed variation in elk growth rate. According to the best-performing model, which accounts for harvest rate and climate, the elk population would have been expected to decline by 7.9% per year, on average, between 1995 and 2004. Within the limits of uncertainty, which are not trivial, climate and harvest rate are justified explanations for most of the observed elk decline. To the extent that this is true, we suggest that between 1995 and 2004 wolf predation was primarily compensatory.     

Landscape genetics and the spatial distribution of chronic wasting disease

Predicting the spread of wildlife disease is critical for identifying populations at risk, targeting surveillance and designing proactive management programmes. We used a landscape genetics approach to identify landscape features that influenced gene flow and the distribution of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Wisconsin white-tailed deer. CWD prevalence was negatively correlated with genetic differentiation of study area deer from deer in the area of disease origin (core-area). Genetic differentiation was greatest, and CWD prevalence lowest, in areas separated from the core-area by the Wisconsin River, indicating that this river reduced deer gene flow and probably disease spread. Features of the landscape that influence host dispersal and spatial patterns of disease can be identified based on host spatial genetic structure. Landscape genetics may be used to predict high-risk populations based on their genetic connection to infected populations and to target disease surveillance, control and preventative activities.