Strong artificial selection in the wild results in predicted small evolutionary change

Estimates of genetic variation and selection allow for quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, at least in controlled laboratory experiments. Natural populations are, however, different in many ways, and natural selection on heritable traits does not always result in phenotypic change. To test whether we were able to predict the evolutionary dynamics of a complex trait measured in a natural, heterogeneous environment, we performed, over an 8-year period, a two-way selection experiment on clutch size in a subdivided island population of great tits (Parus major). Despite strong artificial selection, there was no clear evidence for evolutionary change at the phenotypic level. Environmentally induced differences in clutch size among years are, however, large and can mask evolutionary changes. Indeed, genetic changes in clutch size, inferred from a statistical model, did not deviate systematically from those predicted. Although this shows that estimates of genetic variation and selection can indeed provide quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, also in the wild, it also emphasizes that demonstrating evolution in wild populations is difficult, and that the interpretation of phenotypic trends requires great care.     

Trait Associations across Evolutionary Time within a Drosophila Phylogeny: Correlated Selection or Genetic Constraint?

Traits do not evolve independently. To understand how trait changes under selection might constrain adaptive changes, phenotypic and genetic correlations are typically considered within species, but these capture constraints across a few generations rather than evolutionary time. For longer-term constraints, comparisons are needed across species but associations may arise because of correlated selection pressures rather than genetic interactions. Implementing a unique approach, we use known patterns of selection to separate likely trait correlations arising due to correlated selection from those reflecting genetic constraints. We examined the evolution of stress resistance in >90 Drosophila species adapted to a range of environments, while controlling for phylogeny. Initially we examined the role of climate and phylogeny in shaping the evolution of starvation and body size, two traits previously not examined in this context. Following correction for phylogeny only a weak relationship between climate and starvation resistance was detected, while all of the variation in the relationship between body size and climate could be attributed to phylogeny. Species were divided into three environmental groups (hot and dry, hot and wet, cold) with the expectation that, if genetic correlations underpin trait correlations, these would persist irrespective of the environment, whereas selection-driven evolution should produce correlations dependent on the environment. We found positive associations between most traits in hot and dry environments coupled with high trait means. In contrast few trait correlations were observed in hot/wet and cold environments. These results suggest trait associations are primarily driven by correlated selection rather than genetic interactions, highlighting that such interactions are unlikely to limit evolution of stress resistance.     

Evolutionary potential of morphological traits across different life‐history stages

Despite accumulating examples of selection acting on heritable traits in the wild, predicted evolutionary responses are often different from observed phenotypic trends. Various explanations have been suggested for these mismatches. These include within‐individual changes across lifespan that can create important variation in genetic architecture of traits and selection acting on them, but also potential problems with the methodological approach used to predict evolutionary responses of traits. Here, we used an 8‐year data set on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to first assess the effects of differences among three nestling life‐history stages on the genetic (co)variances of two morphological traits (body mass and primary feather length) and the selection acting on them over three generations. We then estimated the evolutionary potential of these traits by predicting their evolutionary responses using the breeder's equation and the secondary theorem of selection approaches. Our results showed variation in strength and direction of selection and slight changes in trait variance across ages. Predicted evolutionary responses differed importantly between both approaches for half of the trait–age combinations we studied, suggesting the presence of environmentally induced correlations between focal traits and fitness possibly biasing breeder's equation predictions. Our results emphasize that predictions of evolutionary potential for morphological traits are likely to be highly variable, both in strength and direction, depending on the life stage and method used, thus mitigating our capacity to predict adaptation and persistence of wild populations.     

Evolutionary quantitative genetics of nonlinear developmental systems

In quantitative genetics, the effects of developmental relationships among traits on microevolution are generally represented by the contribution of pleiotropy to additive genetic covariances. Pleiotropic additive genetic covariances arise only from the average effects of alleles on multiple traits, and therefore the evolutionary importance of nonlinearities in development is generally neglected in quantitative genetic views on evolution. However, nonlinearities in relationships among traits at the level of whole organisms are undeniably important to biology in general, and therefore critical to understanding evolution. I outline a system for characterizing key quantitative parameters in nonlinear developmental systems, which yields expressions for quantities such as trait means and phenotypic and genetic covariance matrices. I then develop a system for quantitative prediction of evolution in nonlinear developmental systems. I apply the system to generating a new hypothesis for why direct stabilizing selection is rarely observed. Other uses will include separation of purely correlative from direct and indirect causal effects in studying mechanisms of selection, generation of predictions of medium‐term evolutionary trajectories rather than immediate predictions of evolutionary change over single generation time‐steps, and the development of efficient and biologically motivated models for separating additive from epistatic genetic variances and covariances.     

Effects of the demographic transition on the genetic variances and covariances of human life‐history traits

The recent demographic transitions to lower mortality and fertility rates in most human societies have led to changes and even quick reversals in phenotypic selection pressures. This can only result in evolutionary change if the affected traits are heritable, but changes in environmental conditions may also lead to subsequent changes in the genetic variance and covariance (the G matrix) of traits. It currently remains unclear if there have been concomitant changes in the G matrix of life‐history traits following the demographic transition. Using 300 years of genealogical data from Finland, we found that four key life‐history traits were heritable both before and after the demographic transition. The estimated heritabilities allow a quantifiable genetic response to selection during both time periods, thus facilitating continued evolutionary change. Further, the G matrices remained largely stable but revealed a trend for an increased additive genetic variance and thus evolutionary potential of the population after the transition. Our results demonstrate the validity of predictions of evolutionary change in human populations even after the recent dramatic environmental change, and facilitate predictions of how our biology interacts with changing environments, with implications for global public health and demography.     

Adaptive potential of northernmost tree populations to climate change, with emphasis on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)

The adaptive potential of the northernmost Pinus sylvestris L. (and other northern tree) populations is considered by examining first the current patterns of quantitative genetic adaptive traits, which show high population differentiation and clines. We then consider the postglacial history of the populations using both paleobiological and genetic data. The current patterns of diversity at nuclear genes suggest that the traces of admixture are mostly visible in mitochondrial DNA variation patterns. There is little evidence of increased diversity due to admixture between an eastern and western colonization lineage, but no signal of reduced diversity (due to sequential bottlenecks) either. Quantitative trait variation in the north is not associated with the colonizing lineages. The current clines arose rapidly and may be based on standing genetic variation. The initial phenotypic response of Scots pine in the north is predicted to be increased survival and growth. The genetic responses are examined based on quantitative genetic predictions of sustained selection response and compared with earlier simulation results that have aimed at more ecological realism. The phenotypic responses of increased growth and survival reduce the opportunity for selection and delay the evolutionary responses. The lengthening of the thermal growing period also causes selection on the critical photoperiod in the different populations. Future studies should aim at including multiple ecological and genetic factors in evaluating potential responses.     

Plasticity and evolution in correlated suites of traits

When organisms are faced with new or changing environments, a central challenge is the coordination of adaptive shifts in many different phenotypic traits. Relationships among traits may facilitate or constrain evolutionary responses to selection, depending on whether the direction of selection is aligned or opposed to the pattern of trait correlations. Attempts to predict evolutionary potential in correlated traits generally assume that correlations are stable across time and space; however, increasing evidence suggests that this may not be the case, and flexibility in trait correlations could bias evolutionary trajectories. We examined genetic and environmental influences on variation and covariation in a suite of behavioural traits to understand if and how flexibility in trait correlations influences adaptation to novel environments. We tested the role of genetic and environmental influences on behavioural trait correlations by comparing Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) historically adapted to high‐ and low‐predation environments that were reared under native and non‐native environmental conditions. Both high‐ and low‐predation fish exhibited increased behavioural variance when reared under non‐native vs. native environmental conditions, and rearing in the non‐native environment shifted the major axis of variation among behaviours. Our findings emphasize that trait correlations observed in one population or environment may not predict correlations in another and that environmentally induced plasticity in correlations may bias evolutionary divergence in novel environments.     

Evolution of adaptive phenotypic variation patterns by direct selection for evolvability

A basic assumption of the Darwinian theory of evolution is that heritable variation arises randomly. In this context, randomness means that mutations arise irrespective of the current adaptive needs imposed by the environment. It is broadly accepted, however, that phenotypic variation is not uniformly distributed among phenotypic traits, some traits tend to covary, while others vary independently, and again others barely vary at all. Furthermore, it is well established that patterns of trait variation differ among species. Specifically, traits that serve different functions tend to be less correlated, as for instance forelimbs and hind limbs in bats and humans, compared with the limbs of quadrupedal mammals. Recently, a novel class of genetic elements has been identified in mouse gene-mapping studies that modify correlations among quantitative traits. These loci are called relationship loci, or relationship Quantitative Trait Loci (rQTL), and affect trait correlations by changing the expression of the existing genetic variation through gene interaction. Here, we present a population genetic model of how natural selection acts on rQTL. Contrary to the usual neo-Darwinian theory, in this model, new heritable phenotypic variation is produced along the selected dimension in response to directional selection. The results predict that selection on rQTL leads to higher correlations among traits that are simultaneously under directional selection. On the other hand, traits that are not simultaneously under directional selection are predicted to evolve lower correlations. These results and the previously demonstrated existence of rQTL variation, show a mechanism by which natural selection can directly enhance the evolvability of complex organisms along lines of adaptive change.     

Selection on skewed characters and the paradox of stasis

Observed phenotypic responses to selection in the wild often differ from predictions based on measurements of selection and genetic variance. An overlooked hypothesis to explain this paradox of stasis is that a skewed phenotypic distribution affects natural selection and evolution. We show through mathematical modeling that, when a trait selected for an optimum phenotype has a skewed distribution, directional selection is detected even at evolutionary equilibrium, where it causes no change in the mean phenotype. When environmental effects are skewed, Lande and Arnold's (1983) directional gradient is in the direction opposite to the skew. In contrast, skewed breeding values can displace the mean phenotype from the optimum, causing directional selection in the direction of the skew. These effects can be partitioned out using alternative selection estimates based on average derivatives of individual relative fitness, or additive genetic covariances between relative fitness and trait (Robertson–Price identity). We assess the validity of these predictions using simulations of selection estimation under moderate sample sizes. Ecologically relevant traits may commonly have skewed distributions, as we here exemplify with avian laying date — repeatedly described as more evolutionarily stable than expected — so this skewness should be accounted for when investigating evolutionary dynamics in the wild.     

Migration-induced phenotypic divergence: the migration-selection balance of correlated traits

Genetically correlated traits are known to respond to indirect selection pressures caused by directional selection on other traits. It is however unclear how local adaptation in populations diverging along some phenotypic traits but not others is affected by the joint action of gene flow and genetic correlations among traits. This simulation study shows that although gene flow is a potent constraining mechanism of population adaptive divergence, it may induce phenotypic divergence in traits under homogeneous selection among habitats if they are genetically correlated with traits under divergent selection. This correlated phenotypic divergence is a nonmonotonous function of migration and increases with mutational correlation among traits. It also increases with the number of divergently selected traits provided their genetic autonomy relative to the uniformly selected trait is reduced by specific patterns of genetic covariances: populations with lower effective trait dimensionality are more likely to generate very large correlated divergence. The correlated divergence is likely to be picked up by Q(ST)-F(ST) analysis of population genetic differentiation and be erroneously ascribed to adaptive divergence under divergent selection. This study emphasizes the necessity to understand the interaction between selection and the genetic basis of adaptation in a multivariate rather than univariate context.     

Genetic coordination of demography and phenology in the pitcher-plant mosquito,Wyeomyia smithii

Demographic and phenological traits compose the basic elements of an insect's life-history strategy in a seasonal environment. An insect's long-term fitness depends on its ability to exploit favorable conditions, to avoid unfavorable conditions, and to convert from one life style to the other. For the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, we show that genetic variation exists in both development time (a demographic trait) and critical photoperiod (a phenological trait) in six populations spanning much of the species' geographical range. During the northward range expansion of W. smithii in North America, these traits have evolved independently under strong directional and stabilizing selection. The correlated response in critical photoperiod to divergent selection on development time reveals significantly positive genetic correlations in five populations and a negative correlation in one population. The positive correlations form a genetically coordinated phenotype: faster developing individuals use a shorter photoperiodic switch point and are able to exploit the late favorable season; slower developing individuals use a longer photoperiodic switch point and are able to avoid extending development into the unfavorable season. This genetic coordination of demography and phenology has not, however, prevented their independent evolution. We propose that evolutionary flexibility in W. smithii may arise in part from the reorganization of their genetic architecture following repeated founder events during their northward invasion of North America.     

Distinct evolutionary patterns of morphometric sperm traits in passerine birds

The striking diversity of sperm shape across the animal kingdom is still poorly understood. Postcopulatory sexual selection is an important factor driving the evolution of sperm size and shape. Interestingly, morphometric sperm traits, such as the length of the head, midpiece and flagellum, exhibit a strong positive phenotypic correlation across species. Here we used recently developed comparative methods to investigate how such phenotypic correlations between morphometric sperm traits may evolve. We compare allometric relationships and evolutionary trajectories of three morphometric sperm traits (length of head, midpiece and flagellum) in passerine birds. We show that these traits exhibit strong phenotypic correlations but that allometry varies across families. In addition, the evolutionary trajectories of the midpiece and flagellum are similar while the trajectory for head length differs. We discuss our findings in the light of three scenarios accounting for correlated trait evolution: (i) genetic correlation; (ii) concerted response to selection acting simultaneously on different traits; and (iii) phenotypic correlation between traits driven by mechanistic constraints owing to selection on sperm performance. Our results suggest that concerted response to selection is the most likely explanation for the phenotypic correlation between morphometric sperm traits.     

Neutral mutation as the source of genetic variation in life history traits

The mechanism underlying the maintenance of adaptive genetic variation is a long-standing question in evolutionary genetics. There are two concepts (mutation-selection balance and balancing selection) which are based on the phenotypic differences between alleles. Mutation - selection balance and balancing selection cannot properly explain the process of gene substitution, i.e. the molecular evolution of quantitative trait loci affecting fitness. I assume that such loci have non-essential functions (small effects on fitness), and that they have the potential to evolve into new functions and acquire new adaptations. Here I show that a high amount of neutral polymorphism at these loci can exist in real populations. Consistent with this, I propose a hypothesis for the maintenance of genetic variation in life history traits which can be efficient for the fixation of alleles with very small selective advantage. The hypothesis is based on neutral polymorphism at quantitative trait loci and both neutral and adaptive gene substitutions. The model of neutral - adaptive conversion (NAC) assumes that neutral alleles are not neutral indefinitely, and that in specific and very rare situations phenotypic (relative fitness) differences between them can appear. In this paper I focus on NAC due to phenotypic plasticity of neutral alleles. The important evolutionary consequence of NAC could be the increased adaptive potential of a population. Loci responsible for adaptation should be fast evolving genes with minimally discernible phenotypic effects, and the recent discovery of genes with such characteristics implicates them as suitable candidates for loci involved in adaptation.     

Spatio‐temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana

The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness‐related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life‐history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north‐western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north‐western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north‐western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models.     

Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change

Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change—increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.     

Phylogenetic analysis of correlation structure in stalk-eyed flies (Diasemopsis,Diopsidae)

Morphological divergence among species may be constrained by the pattern of genetic variances and covariances among traits within species. Assessing the existence of such a relationship in nature requires information on the stability of intraspecific correlation and covariance structure and the correspondence of this structure to the pattern of evolutionary divergence within a lineage. Here, we investigate these issues for nine morphological traits and 15 species of stalk-eyed flies in the genus Diasemopsis. Within-species matrices for these traits were generated from phenotypic data for all the Diasemopsis species and from genetic data for a single Diasemopsis species, D. dubia. The among-species pattern of divergence was assessed by calculating the evolutionary correlations for all pairwise combinations of the morphological traits along the phylogeny of these species. Comparisons of intraspecific matrices reveal significant similarity among all species in the phenotypic correlations matrices but not the covariance matrices. In addition, the differences in correlation structure that do exist among species are not related to their phylogenetic placement or change in the means of the traits. Comparisons of the phenotypic and phylogenetic matrices suggest a strong relationship between the pattern of evolutionary change among species and both the intraspecific correlation structure and the stability of this structure among species. The phenotypic and the phylogenetic matrices are significantly similar, and pairs of traits whose intraspecific correlations are more stable across taxa exhibit stronger coevolution on the phylogeny. These results suggest either the existence of strong constraints on the pattern of evolutionary change or a consistent pattern of correlated selection shaping both the phenotypic and phylogenetic matrices. The genetic correlation structure for D. dubia, however, does not correspond with patterns found in the phenotypic and phylogenetic data. Possible reasons for this disagreement are discussed.     

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long‐lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common‐garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change‐induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short‐term population survival in a changing climate.     

Phenological shifts in North American red squirrels: disentangling the roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution

Phenological shifts are the most widely reported ecological responses to climate change, but the requirements to distinguish their causes (i.e. phenotypic plasticity vs. microevolution) are rarely met. To do so, we analysed almost two decades of parturition data from a wild population of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). Although an observed advance in parturition date during the first decade provided putative support for climate change‐driven microevolution, a closer look revealed a more complex pattern. Parturition date was heritable [h² = 0.14 (0.07–0.21 (HPD interval)] and under phenotypic selection [β = ?0.14 ± 0.06 (SE)] across the full study duration. However, the early advance reversed in the second decade. Further, selection did not act on the genetic contribution to variation in parturition date, and observed changes in predicted breeding values did not exceed those expected due to genetic drift. Instead, individuals responded plastically to environmental variation, and high food [white spruce (Picea glauca) seed] production in the first decade appears to have produced a plastic advance. In addition, there was little evidence of climate change affecting the advance, as there was neither a significant influence of spring temperature on parturition date or evidence of a change in spring temperatures across the study duration. Heritable traits not responding to selection in accordance with quantitative genetic predictions have long presented a puzzle to evolutionary ecologists. Our results on red squirrels provide empirical support for one potential solution: phenotypic selection arising from an environmental, as opposed to genetic, covariance between the phenotypic trait and annual fitness.     

QTL analysis of floral traits in Louisiana iris hybrids

The formation of hybrid zones between nascent species is a widespread phenomenon. The evolutionary consequences of hybridization are influenced by numerous factors, including the action of natural selection on quantitative trait variation. Here we examine how the genetic basis of floral traits of two species of Louisiana Irises affects the extent of quantitative trait variation in their hybrids. Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping was used to assess the size (magnitude) of phenotypic effects of individual QTL, the degree to which QTL for different floral traits are colocalized, and the occurrence of mixed QTL effects. These aspects of quantitative genetic variation would be expected to influence (1) the number of genetic steps (in terms of QTL substitutions) separating the parental species phenotypes; (2) trait correlations; and (3) the potential for transgressive segregation in hybrid populations. Results indicate that some Louisiana Iris floral trait QTL have large effects and QTL for different traits tend to colocalize. Transgressive variation was observed for six of nine traits, despite the fact that mixed QTL effects influence few traits. Overall, our QTL results imply that the genetic basis of floral morphology and color traits might facilitate the maintenance of phenotypic divergence between Iris fulva and Iris brevicaulis, although a great deal of phenotypic variation was observed among hybrids.