Climate and the northern distribution limits of Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

The southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis, is among the most important agents of ecological disturbance and economic loss in forests of the south-eastern United States. We combined physiological measurements of insect temperature responses with climatic analyses to test the role of temperature in determining the northern distribution limits of D. frontalis. Laboratory measurements of lower lethal temperatures and published records of mortality in wild populations indicated that air temperatures of ?16° should result in almost 100% mortality of D. frontalis. The distribution limits for D. frontalis approximate the isoline corresponding to an annual probability of 0.90 of reaching ≤?16 °C. Thus, D. frontalis have been found about as far north as they could possibly occur given winter temperature regimes. At latitudes from 39° N (southern Ohio) to 33° N (central Alabama), winter temperatures must exert high mortality on D. frontalis populations in at least one year out of ten. In contrast, we reject the hypotheses that summer temperatures or the distribution of host trees constrain the northern distribution of D. frontalis. Because of the short generation time of D. frontalis, its high dispersal abilities, and the cosmopolitan distribution of suitable host trees, changes in either the mean or variance of minimum annual temperatures could have almost immediate effects on regional patterns of beetle infestations. We estimate that an increase of 3 °C in minimum annual temperature could extend the northern distribution limits by 170 km. Increases or decreases in the variance of minimum annual temperatures would further relax climatic constraints on the northern distribution limits of D. frontalis. Results emphasize the ecological importance of spatial and temporal variability in minimum annual temperatures. The physiologically based models provide a tool for guiding land management decisions in forests and illustrate a general approach for predicting the regional effects of climatic patterns on the distribution of organisms.     

The range of the beet webworm Loxostege sticticalis L. (Lepidoptera,Pyraloidea: Crambidae) in the former USSR territory and its subdivision by the number of generations per season

The distribution limits of the beet webworm, Loxostege sticticalis L., with its sustainable development in one, two, three, or four successive generations per season in the former USSR territory were mapped for the first time using routine GIS procedures. The expected number of generations was determined based on the sum of daydegrees (above a threshold of 12°C), critical day length value (14 h), and Selyaninov’s hydrothermal index (> 0.3). The compiled map was in good agreement with that prepared for China (Luo Li-zhi and Li Guang-bo, 1993).     

Thermal tolerance of Cyrtobagous salviniae: a biocontrol agent in a changing world

The weevil Cyrtobagous salviniae Calder & Sands 1985 (Family: Curculionidae) is a highly effective biocontrol agent for the invasive water fern Salvinia molesta D.S. Mitchell (Family: Salviniaceae). The life histories of both organisms are affected by temperature, making the potential impacts of climate change on efficacy of control an important area in which comprehensive understanding is required. Here we use warming tolerance (WT) and low temperature tolerance (LTT) as measures of C. salviniae’s sensitivity to climate warming, calculated across South Africa using critical thermal limits, lethal temperature limits and mean maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) environmental temperatures under present climatic conditions and two future periods (2040s and 2080s). From the present climate to the 2080s the WTs of C. salviniae decrease and LTTs increase indicating C. salviniae may face greater constraints on survival as Tmax nears the upper thermal limits, but increased population persistence over cool months as Tmin increases.     

Field transplants reveal summer constraints on a butterfly range expansion

The geographic ranges of most species are expected to shift to higher elevations and latitudes in response to global warming. But species react to specific environmental changes in individualistic ways, and we are far from a detailed understanding of range-shifts. Summer temperature often limits the ranges of insects and plants, so many range-shifts are expected to track summer warming. I explore this potential range-limiting factor in a case study of a northwardly expanding American butterfly, Atalopedes campestris (Lepidoptera, Hesperiidae). This species has recently colonized the Pacific Northwest, USA, where the mean annual temperature has risen 0.8–1.8°C over the past 100 years. Using field transplant experiments across the current range edge, I measured development time, survivorship, fecundity and predation rates along a naturally occurring thermal gradient of 3°C. Development time was significantly slower outside the current range in eastern Washington (WA), as expected because of cooler temperatures there. Slower development would reduce the number of generations possible per year outside the current range, dramatically lowering the probability that a population could survive there. Differences in survivorship, fecundity and predation rate across the range edge were not significant. The interaction between summer and winter temperature appears to be crucial in defining the current range limit. The estimated difference in temperature required to affect the number of generations is greater than the extent of summer warming observed over the past century, however, and thus historically winter temperature alone probably limited the range in southeastern WA. Nonetheless, extraordinarily warm summers may have improved colonization success, increasing the probability of a range expansion. These results suggest that extreme climatic events may influence rates of response to long-term climate change. They also demonstrate that range-limiting factors can change over time, and that the asymmetry in seasonal warming trends will have biological consequences.     

Hyperthermic aphids: Insights into behaviour and mortality

Although the impact of warming on winter limitation of aphid populations is reasonably well understood, the impacts of hot summers and heat wave events are less clear. In this study, we address this question through a detailed analysis of the thermal ecology of three closely related aphid species: Myzus persicae, a widespread, polyphagous temperate zone pest, Myzus polaris, an arctic aphid potentially threatened by climate warming, and, Myzus ornatus, a glasshouse pest that may benefit from warming. The upper lethal limits (ULT₅₀) and heat coma temperatures of the aphid species reared at both 15 and 20 °C did not differ significantly, suggesting that heat coma is a reliable indicator of fatal heat stress. Heat coma and CT_max were also measured after aphids were reared at 10 and 25 °C for one and three generations. The extent of the acclimation response was not influenced by the number of generations. Acclimation increased CT_max with rearing temperature for all species. The acclimation temperature also influenced heat coma; this relationship was linear for M. ornatus and M. polaris but non-linear for M. persicae (increased tolerance at 10 and 25 °C). Bacteria known generically as secondary symbionts can promote thermal tolerance of aphids, but they were not detected in the aphids studied here. Assays of optimum development temperature were also performed for each species. All data indicate that M. persicae has the greatest tolerance of high temperatures.     

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.     

Biological cycle of a population of subantarctic copepod,Drepanopus pectinatus (Clausocalanidae), Kerguelen Archipelago

Summary Depending on seasons, 73% to 99% of the copepod number in the subantarctic ecosystem of the Kerguelen Archipelago consists of Drepanopus pectinatus. All developmental stages from copepodid 1 to 5 and adults are found all year through. The annual population cycle fluctuates between a maximum abundance during the summer (150×10³ individuals per m²) and a minimum during the winter (80 individuals per m²). A succession of 4 generations a year is discussed, based on the percentages of the various developmental stages in the population and changes in size of specimens in the various stages.     

Temperature-induced oviposition in the brachyuran crab Cancer setosus along a latitudinal cline: Aquaria experiments and analysis of field-data

Ovigerous females of Cancer setosus are present year-round throughout most of its wide range along the Peruvian/Chilean Pacific coast (2°S-46°S). However, their number of egg-masses produced per year remains speculative and as such has neither been considered in latitudinal comparisons of reproduction, nor for its fisheries management. In order to reveal the effect of temperature on egg-mass production and egg-development, female C. setosus were held in through-flow aquaria under natural seasonal temperature conditions (16-23 °C) in Antofagasta (23°S), Northern Chile (05/2005-03/2006; 10 months), and at three constant temperatures (12, 16, 19 °C) in Puerto Montt (41°S), Central Southern Chile (09/2006-02/2007; 5 months). Female crabs uniformly produced up to 3 viable egg-masses within 4 1/2 months in Antofagasta and in Puerto Montt (at 19 °C). The second egg-mass was observed 62.5 days (± 7.6; N = 7) after the oviposition of the first clutch and a third egg-mass followed 73.5 days (± 12.5; N = 11) later in Antofagasta (at 16-23 °C). Comparably, a second oviposition took place 64.4 days (± 9.8, N = 5) after the first clutch and a third, 67.0 days (± 2.8, N = 2), thereafter, at 19 °C in Puerto Montt. At the two lower temperatures (16 and 12 °C) in Puerto Montt a second egg-mass was extruded after 82.8 days (± 28.9; N = 4) and 137 days (N = 1), respectively. The duration of egg-development from oviposition until larval hatching decreased from 65 days at 12.5 °C to 22.7 days at the observed upper temperature threshold of 22 °C. Based on the derived relationship between temperature and the duration of egg-development (y = 239.3175e^{− 0.107x}; N = 21, r² = 0.83) and data on monthly percentages of ovigerous females from field studies, the annual number of egg-masses of C. setosus was calculated. This analysis revealed an annual output of about one egg-mass close to the species northern and southern distributional limits in Casma (9°S) and Ancud (43°S), respectively, while at Coquimbo (29°S) about two and in Concepción (36°S) more than 3 egg-masses are produced per year.     

Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest

Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer , Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35°C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20–30°C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32°C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1–2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1°C rise in thermal optimum (T_opt.), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r _max) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.     

Predicting the distribution of Eccritotarsus catarinensis, a natural enemy released on water hyacinth in South Africa

Water hyacinth [Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms (Pontederiaceae)] is the most damaging aquatic weed in South Africa, where five arthropod biological control agents have been released against it. The most recent introduction of Eccritotarsus catarinensis (Carvalho) (Heteroptera: Miridae) has failed to establish permanent populations at a number of sites in South Africa where water hyacinth is a problem. Cold winter temperatures at these sites are assumed to be the reason for these establishment failures. This assumption was tested by investigating the thermal physiology of the mirid, then incorporating these data into various predictive distribution models. Degree‐day models predict 3–14 generations per year at different localities in South Africa, and five generations at a Johannesburg site where the mirid failed to overwinter. The inability to develop sufficiently rapidly during winter months may hinder overwintering of this insect, which was predicted to develop through only one generation during the winter months of April to August in Johannesburg. A CLIMEX model also showed that cold stress limits the mirid's ability to overwinter in the interior of the country, while determination of the lower lethal limit (–3.5 °C) and critical thermal minimum (1.2 ± 1.17 °C) also indicated that extreme temperatures will limit establishment at certain sites. It is concluded that E. catarinensis is limited in its distribution in South Africa by low winter temperatures.     

Temperature tolerance polygon of Poecilia sphenops Valenciennes (Pisces: Poeciliidae)

1. The critical thermal maximum (CTMax) and minimum (CTMin), the upper and lower incipient lethal temperature, and the high and low avoidance temperature of Poecilia sphenops were established.2. The area of thermal tolerance of P. sphenops upon considering the lethal limits was 863.9 (°C)², the estimated area using the critical temperatures, as well as the zone of thermal preference were 959 and 323.4 (°C)², respectively.3. P. sphenops is a species highly eurythermical that possesses a high tolerance, resistance and capacity of adaptation to environmental variations.     

Effect of temperature on the reproductive success,developmental rate and brood characteristics of Ips sexdentatus (Boern.)

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Temperature-dependent development,cold tolerance,and potential distribution of Gratiana boliviana (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), a biological control agent of tropical soda apple,Solanum viarum (Solanaceae)

The leaf beetle Gratiana boliviana Spaeth (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) was introduced from South America into the southeastern United States in 2003 as a classical biological control agent of tropical soda apple, Solanum viarum Dunal (Solanaceae). Temperature-dependent development and survival studies revealed that development was completed at temperatures >16°C and ≤34°C. The number of degree-days required to complete one generation was 341 and the estimated lower developmental threshold was 13.37°C. Using nonlinear regression, the upper lethal threshold was estimated to be 34–35°C. Cold tolerance studies revealed that the lethal time for 90% of adults (LT₉₀) was 12.6 days at 5°C and 8.68 days at 0°C. Based on the developmental and cold tolerance data, a map predicting the areas of establishment and number of generations per year was generated, which suggests that the northern extent of the G. boliviana range in the USA will be near 32–33° north latitude. Fewer generations per year in more northern areas of the southeastern USA may decrease the effectiveness of this biological control agent.     

Heading for New Shores: Projecting Marine Distribution Ranges of Selected Larger Foraminifera

The distribution of modern symbiont-bearing larger foraminifera is confined to tropical and subtropical shallow water marine habitats and a narrow range of environmental variables (e.g. temperature). Most of today''s taxa are restricted to tropical and subtropical regions (between 30°N and 30°S) and their minimum temperature limits are governed by the 14 to 20°C isotherms. However, during times of extensive global warming (e.g., the Eocene and Miocene), larger foraminifera have been found as far north as 50°N (North America and Central Europe) as well as towards 47°S in New Zealand. During the last century, sea surface temperatures have been rising significantly. This trend is expected to continue and climate change scenarios for 2050 suggest a further increase by 1 to 3°C. We applied Species Distribution Models to assess potential distribution range changes of three taxa of larger foraminifera under current and future climate. The studied foraminifera include Archaias angulatus, Calcarina spp., and Amphistegina spp., and represent taxa with regional, superregional and global distribution patterns. Under present environmental conditions, Amphistegina spp. shows the largest potential distribution, apparently due to its temperature tolerance. Both Archaias angulatus and Calcarina spp. display potential distributions that cover currently uninhabited regions. Under climate conditions expected for the year 2050, all taxa should display latitudinal range expansions between 1 to 2.5 degrees both north- and southward. The modeled range projections suggest that some larger foraminifera may colonize biogeographic regions that so far seemed unsuitable. Archaias angulatus and Calcarina spp. also show an increase in habitat suitability within their native occurrence ranges, suggesting that their tolerance for maximum temperatures has yet not been fully exploited and that they benefit from ocean warming. Our findings suggest an increased role of larger foraminifera as carbonate producers and reef framework builders in future oceans.     

Intraspecific variations in life history traits of two pecky rice bug species from Japan: Mapping emergence dates and number of annual generations

The mirid bugs Stenotus rubrovittatus and Trigonotylus caelestialium, which cause pecky rice, have become a threat to rice cultivation in Asia. Damage caused by these pests has rapidly become frequent since around 2000 in Japan. Their expansion pattern is not simple, and predicting their future spread remains challenging. Some insects with wide ranges have locally adapted variations in life‐history traits. We performed laboratory rearing experiments to assess the geographical scale of intraspecific variations in life‐history traits of S. rubrovittatus and T. caelestialium. The experiments were aimed at increasing the accuracy of occurrence estimates and the number of generations per year. These results were compared with previous research, and differences in development rates were observed between populations of different latitudes, but not of the same latitude. Finally, plotting the timing of adult emergence and the potential number of generations per year on maps with a 5‐km grid revealed that they differed greatly locally at the same latitude. These maps can be used for developing more efficient methods of managing mirid bugs in integrated pest management.     

Use of life table statistics and degree day values to predict the colonisation success of Hydrellia lagarosiphon Deeming (Diptera: Ephydridae), a leaf mining fly of Lagarosiphon major (Ridley) Moss (Hydrocharitaceae), in Ireland and the rest of Europe

Hydrellia lagarosiphon is a leaf mining fly of the submerged aquatic plant Lagarosiphon major and native to South Africa. With many favorable attributes this fly has the potential to be a valuable biological control agent of L. major, which has become a problematic weed in many parts of the world. Reproductive and developmental biology of H. lagarosiphon was determined at four constant temperatures (10, 13.5, 16.5, 20 °C) to evaluate the rate of increase and predicted colonisation success in areas where L. major occurs and areas where its continued spread is probable. Development rates increased with decreasing temperatures and were greatest at 10 °C taking 157.9 days. Linear regression of developmental rate data for temperatures 10–20 °C indicated that 517 degree days were required above a minimum of 7.5 °C to complete development. Between two and eight generations per year were estimated across the climatic regions of Europe using the degree day model. The fitted quadratic model for the net reproductive rate (R_o) indicated that R_o falls below 1.0 at 9.9 °C, suggesting a decline in population growth when fly populations are subjected to prolonged periods of temperatures below 10 °C. The values of R_o for selected sites range from 0 to 13, with all but a few sites in northern Europe being suitable for the establishment of H. lagarosiphon. A minimum of two generations were required each year to sustain population growth and most biogeographical regions in Europe appeared suitable for the establishment of permanent populations of H. lagarosiphon. The implications for the release strategy of the fly are discussed.     

Die küstenvegetation ostkanadas: D. Thannheiser. Münstersche Geographische Arbeiten. No. 10. Schöningh,Paderborn, 1981, 201 pp. 166 figs., 41 tables,DM. 41.50. ISBN 3-506-73210-2

Temperatures 10 and 2 cm above water level, in leaves of Salvinia molesta Mitchell, and 2 and 10 cm below water level, were measured in the field at hourly intervals over a total of 125 days. Temperature cycles of leaves and air had mean diurnal amplitudes of 8°C in summer and 17°C in winter; cycles in water lagged behind and had amplitudes which decreased with depth. Most parts of S. molesta were warmer than the air at a nearby weather station most of the time and there was temperature stratification in the water during the warm part of each day.Standard meteorological variables were selected, using stepwise regression, to predict daily maximum and minimum temperatures of S. molesta. Thermal inertia of water in the lake seemed to elevate S. molesta temperatures in autumn and depress them in spring compared with temperatures at the weather station. Better predictors were obtained by adding to meteorological variables a function based on the annual cycle of temperatures 10 cm below water level. Hourly temperatures experienced by S. molesta were predicted using curves fitted to diurnal cycles. The reliability of predictions was tested for each season of the year with independent data for a total of 78 days. Predicted temperatures were close to observed temperatures both in absolute terms and in terms of temperature-dependent growth rates of S. molesta.     

A comparison of low temperature tolerance traits between closely related aphids from the tropics, temperate zone, and Arctic

The survival of aphids exposed to low temperatures is strongly influenced by their ability to move within and between plants and to survive exposure to potentially lethal low temperatures. Little is known about the physiological and behavioural limitations on aphid movement at low temperatures or how they may relate to lethal temperature thresholds. These questions are addressed here through an analysis of the thermal ecology of three closely related aphid species: Myzus persicae, a ubiquitous temperate zone pest, Myzus polaris, an arctic species, and Myzus ornatus, a sub-tropical species. Lower lethal temperatures (LLT₅₀) of aphids reared at 15 °C were similar for M. persicae and M. polaris (range: −12.7 to −13.9 °C), but significantly higher for M. ornatus (−6.6 °C). The temperature thresholds for activity and chill coma increased with rearing temperature (10, 15, 20, and 25 °C) for all clones. For M. polaris and M. ornatus the slopes of these relationships were approximately parallel; by contrast, for M. persicae the difference in slopes meant that the difference between the temperatures at which aphids cease walking and enter coma increased by approximately 0.5 °C per 1 °C increase in rearing temperature. The data suggest that all three species have the potential to increase population sizes and expand their ranges if low temperature limitation is relaxed.     

Characterization of the complete mitochondrial genome of Chilo auricilius and comparison with three other rice stem borers

The mitogenome of Chilo auricilius (Lepidoptera: Pyraloidea: Crambidae) was a circular molecule made up of 15,367 bp. Sesamia inferens, Chilo suppressalis, Tryporyza incertulas, and C. auricilius, are closely related, well known rice stem borers that are widely distributed in the main rice-growing regions of China. The gene order and orientation of all four stem borers were similar to that of other insect mitogenomes. Among the four stem borers, all AT contents were below 83%, while all AT contents of tRNA genes were above 80%. The genomes were compact, with only 121–257 bp of non-coding intergenic spacer. There are 56 or 62-bp overlapping nucleotides in Crambidae moths, but were only 25-bp overlapping nucleotides in the noctuid moth S. inferens. There was a conserved motif ‘ATACTAAA’ between trnS2 (UCN) and nad1 in Crambidae moths, but this same region was ‘ATCATA’ in the noctuid S. inferens. And there was a 6-bp motif ‘ATGATAA’ of overlapping nucleotides, which was conserved in Lepidoptera, and a 14-bp motif ‘TAAGCTATTTAAAT’ conserved in the three Crambidae moths (C. suppressalis, C. auricilius and T. incertulas), but not in the noctuid. Finally, there were no stem-and-loop structures in the two Chilo moths.     

Temperature Impacts the Development and Survival of Common Cutworm (Spodoptera litura): Simulation and Visualization of Potential Population Growth in India under Warmer Temperatures through Life Cycle Modelling and Spatial Mapping

The common cutworm, Spodoptera litura, has become a major pest of soybean (Glycine max) throughout its Indian range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this insect to become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions due to increased habitat suitability. To examine this possibility, we developed temperature-based phenology model for S. litura, by constructing thermal reaction norms for cohorts of single life stages, at both constant and fluctuating temperatures within the ecologically relevant range (15–38°C) for its development. Life table parameters were estimated stochastically using cohort updating and rate summation approach. The model was implemented in the geographic information system to examine the potential future pest status of S. litura using temperature change projections from SRES A₁B climate change scenario for the year 2050. The changes were visualized by means of three spatial indices demonstrating the risks for establishment, number of generations per year and pest abundance according to the temperature conditions. The results revealed that the development rate as a function of temperature increased linearly for all the immature stages of S. litura until approximately 34–36°C, after which it became non-linear. The extreme temperature of 38°C was found lethal to larval and pupal stages of S. litura wherein no development to the next stage occurred. Females could lay no eggs at the extreme low (15°C) and high (> 35°C) test temperatures, demonstrating the importance of optimum temperature in determining the suitability of climate for the mating and reproduction in S. litura. The risk mapping predicts that due to temperature increase under future climate change, much of the soybean areas in Indian states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, will become suitable for S. litura establishment and increased pest activity, indicating the expansion of the suitable and favourable areas over time. This has serious implication in terms of soybean production since these areas produce approximately 95% of the total soybeans in India. As the present model results are based on temperature only, and the effects of other abiotic and biotic factors determining the pest population dynamics were excluded, it presents only the potential population growth parameters for S. litura. However, if combined with the field observations, the model results could certainly contribute to gaining insight into the field dynamics of S. litura.