Small-scale spatial dynamics in a fluctuating ungulate population

1. The scale at which population dynamics are analysed is important, as results from analyses at different spatial scales can differ and affect interpretation.
2. In this study, detailed census data collected over a 10-year period from a population of Soay sheep ( Ovis aries L.) on the Island of Hirta in the St Kilda archipelago, Scotland, is used, together with cluster analysis, to distinguish a temporally stable spatial substructure.
3. Structured demographic accounting of the variance in population change (SDA) is also used to analyse the dynamics of the whole population treated as (a) one unit; (b) one unit subdivided into three subunits; and (c) three independent units.
4. Differences in survival, recruitment and dispersal rates are demonstrated between divisions of the population, which are probably associated with variation in grazing quality.
5. If these groups were not coupled by dispersal and density-independent entrainment, the population dynamics of the three groups would diverge, however, the dynamics of the three subunits are strongly correlated.     

Recruitment to a seabird population depends on environmental factors and on population size

1. A novel capture-mark-recapture (CMR) method was used to build a multistate model of recruitment by young birds to a breeding population of common guillemots Uria aalge on the Isle of May, Scotland. Recruitment of a total of 2757 individually marked guillemots over 17 years was modelled as a process where individuals had to move from an unobservable state at sea, through a nonbreeding state present in the colony, to the breeding state. The probabilities of individuals returning to the colony in a given year, at age 2 and 3-4 years, were positively correlated with an environmental covariate, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index (WNAO) in the previous years. 2. For 2 year olds, there was a negative relationship with breeding population size, suggesting that density dependence operated in this colony through limitation of food or some other resource. 3. Survival over the first 2 years of life varied with cohort, but was unrelated to the WNAO. Mean survival over this 2-year period was high at 0.576 (95% CI: 0.444; 0.708). 4. This high survival, combined with a low 'local' survival after age 5 years of 0.695 (0-654; 0.733) and observations of Isle of May chicks at other colonies, suggests that most surviving chicks return to the natal colony before deciding whether to recruit there or move elsewhere.     

Climate,body condition and spleen size in birds

Climatic conditions may impact on the body condition of animals and thereby affect their survival prospects. However, climate may also impact directly on the survival prospects of animals by affecting the size of immune defence organs that are used for defence against parasites. We used a large long-term database on body condition and size of the spleen in birds to test for immediate and delayed relationships between climatic conditions as indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and body condition and spleen mass, respectively. Across 14 species of birds, spleen mass was significantly positively correlated with the NAO index, while the delayed effect of NAO on spleen mass was not significant. Spleen mass was positively related to body condition, but body condition did not depend significantly on NAO or delayed NAO effects. Bird species with a strong positive effect of NAO on spleen mass tended to have small spleens for their body size, while species with a strong negative effect of NAO on spleen mass tended to have relatively large spleens. Since bird species with relatively large spleen have been shown to suffer more from the negative effects of parasites, we can infer that the effects of climate as indexed by NAO on the size of the spleen depends on the importance of parasite-mediated natural selection.Due to an error in the citation line, this revised PDF (published in December 2003) deviates from the printed version, and is the correct and authoritative version of the paper.     

Climate, food, density and wildlife population growth rate

1. The aim of this study was to derive and evaluate a priori models of the relationship between annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) and climate. These were derived from the numerical response of annual r and food, and the effect of climate on a parameter in the numerical response. The goodness of fit of a range of such deductive models to data on annual r of Soay sheep and red deer were evaluated using information-theoretic (AICc-based) analyses. 2. The analysis for sheep annual r showed negative effects of abundance and negative effects of the interaction of abundance and climate, measured as March rainfall (and winter NAO) in the best fitting models. The analysis for deer annual r showed a negative effect of deer abundance and a positive effect of climate measured as March rainfall (but a negative effect of winter NAO), but no interaction of abundance and climate in the best fitting models. 3. There was most support in the analysis of sheep dynamics for the ratio numerical response and the assumption that parameter J (equilibrium food per animal) was influenced by climate. In the analysis of deer dynamics there was most support for the numerical responses assuming effects of food and density (Ivlev and density, food and density, and additive responses) and slightly less support for the ratio numerical response. The evaluation of such models would be aided by the collection of and incorporation of food data into the analyses.     

Climate forcing of diatom productivity in a lowland,eutrophic lake: White Lough revisited

1. In cultural landscapes, lake response to climate can be masked by land‐use change and nutrient loss from their catchments. Palaeolimnological methods were used to reconstruct the ecological response of diatoms in a eutrophic lowland lake (White Lough, Co. Tyrone, Northern Ireland) to altered nutrient P loading and precipitation variability over c. 100 years. 2. ²¹⁰Pb‐dated sediment cores were analysed to determine diatom assemblage variability, biogenic silica concentration, geochemical phosphorus concentration and accumulation rate. Manure P and agricultural N surplus data were collated from documentary sources. Long‐term trends in annual temperature and precipitation were derived from the Armagh Observatory. 3. Diatom community turnover from 1890 until c. 1960 was limited, and assemblages were dominated by Aulacoseira subarctica; after this date, changes primarily reflected a eutrophication sequence owing to increased diffuse nutrient inputs associated with intensification of land use (external P loading increased by a factor of three). 4. Diatom and biogenic Si profiles were compared with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records, an index of regional weather patterns. Biogenic Si exhibited a c. 7‐year cycle, which tracked a cycle of similar timescale in the Armagh climate record for dry summers. In turn, this cycle was related to the variation in the NAO. 5. Monitoring data from 1971 to 2007 of nitrate exports from the Blackwater River showed that these too followed a roughly 7‐year cycle at least up to 2000, in which dry summers were followed by sharp increases in nitrate export. It is argued that diatom production in White Lough reflects the cyclic behaviour in nitrate loading and the constraints that nitrogen availability places on the spring diatom bloom in a lake that is dominated by cyanobacteria.     

Climate and body size influence nest survival in a fish with parental care

1. The current study examined the effect of broad-scale climate and individual-specific covariates on nest survival in smallmouth bass over a 20-year period. 2. Large-scale climate indices [winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] and body size of parental males were important covariates in nest survival along with nest age and a quadratic trend in survival. 3. We did not find an effect due to a habitat covariate (total effective fetch) or a phenology covariate (degree-days at start of nesting) on nest survival. 4. Male size in the second half of the nesting season was a more influential covariate on nest success than male size in the first half or throughout the nesting period. 5. We present evidence showing that winter NAO/ENSO indices establish limnological conditions the following spring that influence thermal stability of the lake during the nesting period. 6. The combined climate and body size covariates point to nest survival as a function of lagged climate-scale influences on limnology and the individual-scale influence of bioenergetics on the duration of parental care and nest success.     

Population ecology and conservation of endangered megafauna: the case of European bison in Białowieża Primeval Forest, Poland

The European bison Bison bonasus is an example of nearly extinct 'charismatic megafauna'. The Białowieża Primeval Forest in Poland is among the few places where they still live in the wild. The management of this free-living herd has to reconcile to the conservation needs of a species and the economic and environmental objectives of their habitat: protected as well as commercial woodlands of Białowieża. Here we present a detailed account of the population development and analyse variation in vital rates based on monitoring that started in 1952 and continued until 2002. The population was allowed to grow freely until 1970, when removal started with the aim to stabilize population size. We found that recruitment rate, but not mortality, was density dependent, suggesting that the population density was not very high relative to resource levels. Winters with much snow and cold temperature had a strong negative effect on survival. May temperature of the previous year positively affected recruitment rates. Masting (oak seed) also positively affected recruitment rates, which provides a rare account of masting affecting the performance of a large ruminant. Sex ratio of offspring was even and was not strongly affected by density or climate. We use an age-structured matrix model to show how this knowledge of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting vital rates may help managerial decisions by providing explicit links between given environmental conditions and the population growth rates.     

Population density and sex do not influence fine-scale natal dispersal in roe deer

It is commonly assumed that the propensity to disperse and the dispersal distance of mammals should increase with increasing density and be greater among males than among females. However, most empirical evidence, especially on large mammals, has focused on highly polygynous and dimorphic species displaying female-defence mating tactics. We tested these predictions on roe deer, a weakly polygynous species of large herbivore exhibiting a resource-defence mating tactic at a fine spatial scale. Using three long-term studies of populations that were subject to the experimental manipulation of size, we did not find any support for either prediction, whether in terms of dispersal probability or dispersal distance. Our findings of similar dispersal patterns in both sexes of roe deer suggest that the underlying cause of natal dispersal is not related to inbreeding avoidance in this species. The absence of positive density dependence in fine-scale dispersal behaviour suggests that roe deer natal dispersal is a pre-saturation process that is shaped by heterogeneities in habitat quality rather than by density per se.     

Fitness and sexual response to population density in Daphnia pulex

1. The switch between asexual and sexual reproduction is an important fitness component in cyclically parthenogenetic populations as it is the key to persistence in unstable habitats and because it influences population genetic characteristics such as linkage disequilibrium and population genetic structure.
2. Genetic variation for sexual and asexual reproductive rate ( R _C) was examined, under varying population density, in Daphnia pulex sampled from a rockpool system and two other distinct European localities.
3. Density affected the switch to sexual behaviour, as found in other studies and reduced R _c. Production of males was not correlated with sexual reproduction, promoting outcrossing.
4. Genetic variation was found for the response to density, both within and between populations. There was substantial variation within the rockpools despite their demographic instability, indicating rapid recovery of life-history variation or maintenance during bottlenecks.     

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.     

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982–2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift (Apus apus), nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), and house martin (Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling (Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow (Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.     

Breeding experience and population density affect the ability of a songbird to respond to future climate variation

Predicting how populations respond to climate change requires an understanding of whether individuals or cohorts within populations vary in their response to climate variation. We used mixed-effects models on a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population in British Columbia, Canada, to examine differences among females and cohorts in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climatic variables, age and population density were strong predictors of timing of breeding, but we also found considerable variation among individual females and cohorts. Within cohorts, females differed markedly in their breeding date and cohorts also differed in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity. The plasticity of a cohort appeared to be due primarily to an interaction between the environmental conditions (climate and density) experienced at different ages rather than innate inter-cohort differences. Cohorts that expressed higher plasticity in breeding date experienced warmer El Niño springs in their second or third breeding season, suggesting that prior experience affects how well individuals responded to abnormal climatic conditions. Cohorts born into lower density populations also expressed higher plasticity in breeding date. Interactions between age, experience and environmental conditions have been reported previously for long-lived taxa. Our current results indicate that similar effects operate in a short-lived, temperate songbird.     

Climatic change in the Russian Altai, southern Siberia, based on palynological and geomorphological results, with implications for climatic teleconnections and human history since the middle Holocene

Two pollen diagrams from near the Chuya Basin, Russian Altai, are presented together with results from geomorphological archives. The Kuray Range profile (2330 m a.s.l.) is situated just above the forest line and starts with the weak cooling of the middle Atlantic period (ca. 6500–5900 b.p.) that bisects the Holocene optimum, as in other parts of Siberia. Taiga (boreal coniferous forest) with Picea obovata established afterwards but was displaced at ca. 5300 b.p. by the pronounced cooling of the early Sub-boreal. A gradual recovery of taiga stopped and it disappeared around 3400 b.p. at the end of the middle Sub-boreal. Since then the climatic and vegetational conditions much resemble those of the Sub-atlantic. In the last two millennia, three climatic declines are documented in the second diagram from the Tarkhata Valley (2210 m a.s.l.) from the dry limit of Larix sibirica: a cold and wet one around the 5th century a.d., a cold and dry one around a.d. 1200 and the Little Ice Age which started around a.d. 1600. In addition, several of the climatic periods and especially local human influence can be proved by the geomorphological findings. Most of the climatic changes seem to be connected with socio-ecological changes in Asia and even Europe, with movements of the Huns and Mongols, which show the possible dimensions of global climatic change. Hints of teleconnections between Siberia, the Mediterranean and the Himalayas via the North Atlantic and the Arctic Oscillation are discussed.     

Differential response to climatic variation of free‐floating and submerged macrophytes in ditches

1. Experimental studies have indicated in freshwater ecosystems that a shift in dominance from submerged to free‐floating macrophytes may occur with climate change because of increased water surface temperatures and eutrophication. Field evidence is, however, rare. 2. Here, we analysed long‐term (26 years) dynamics of macrophyte cover in Dutch ditches in relation to Dutch weather variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index. The latter appears to be a good proxy for Dutch weather conditions. 3. Cover of both free‐floating macrophytes and evergreen overwintering submerged macrophytes was positively related to mild winters (positive NAO winter index). On the other hand, high cover of submerged macrophytes that die back in winter coincided with cold winters (negative NAO winter index). Our results therefore suggest that the effect of weather on macrophyte species depends strongly on their overwintering strategy. 4. The positive relation of free‐floating macrophytes with the NAO winter index was significantly stronger in ditches in organic soil than in those in inorganic soil. This may be because of increased nutrient loading associated with increased decomposition of organic matter and increased run‐off to these ditches during mild wet winters. 5. Our results suggest that mild winters in a changing climate may cause submerged macrophytes with an evergreen overwintering strategy and free‐floating macrophytes to outcompete submerged macrophytes that die back in winter.