Evaluation of metal contamination and risk assessment to human health in a coal mine region of India: A case study of the North Karanpura coalfield

The present study aimed to evaluate metal contamination level in coal mine water of the North Karanpura coalfields and assess the possible health risk due to the intake of untreated mine water. Fourteen coal mine water samples were collected from the study area and analyzed for Al, As, Ba, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Se, and Zn using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS). The heavy metal pollution index (HPI) was used to calculate metal pollution level in the coal mine water. The hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) were estimated for health risk to child and adult by using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) methods. The concentrations of Al, Fe, Mn, and Ni in coal mine water were exceeding the acceptable as well as the maximum permissible limits specified for drinking and domestic uses. The HPI values were below the critical pollution index level of 100 except at one location. The estimated HQ and HI values for adult and children were greater than the standard limits in nearly half of the water samples. High HQ and HI values suggest that suitable treatment of coal mine water will require before its utilization in domestic and drinking purposes.     

Concentrations of organophosphorus pesticides in rice (Oryza sativa) and human health risk assessment from Songhua River,Northeast China

The aim of this study was to investigate organophosphorus pesticides (OPs) concentrations in rice grains and estimate potential health risk to inhabitants. A total of 102 rice samples were collected from the Irrigated Area of Songhua River, located in Jilin province, one of the most important rice production areas and a key agricultural area in China. The twelve OPs were determined by gas chromatography coupled with flame photometric detector. Results showed that OPs concentrations in rice grains did not exceed maximum residue limit. The mean concentrations obtained for the detected twelve OPs in µg kg^?1 were as follows: omethoate (0.60), diazinon (0.56), parathion-methyl (0.54), dimethoate (0.38), isocarbophos (0.38), phorate (0.31), fenitrothion (0.24), parathion (0.23), fenthion (0.23), malathion (0.13), dichlorvos (0.13), and methamidophos (0.08). Diazinon (39.2%), omethoate (31.4%), and parathion-methyl (25.5%) had the highest frequency in the detected twelve OPs. 69.6% of samples contained more than one OP, 24.5% of samples detected one OP, and only 5.9% samples did not find any OPs. The average target hazard quotients were all less than one and average hazard index for adults and children were 0.273 and 0.238, respectively. Overall, results indicated that the intake of rice may be safe for consumers.     

Assessment of heavy metal contamination of rice grains (Oryza sativa) and soil from Ada field,Enugu, Nigeria: Estimating the human healtrisk

The concentrations of heavy metals in rice grains and soils from Ada cultivated fields were investigated. Rice and soil samples were digested and the heavy metal concentrations determined using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The results showed the following concentrations of metals (mg/kg): soil—Pb (4.64 ± 2.18), Cd (0.83 ± 0.83), Zn (20.26 ± 18.60), Mn (68.90 ± 19.91), Ni (3.46 ± 2.42), and Cr (21.41 ± 14.6); rice—Pb (3.99 ± 1.43), Cd (1.10 ± 0.53), Zn (65.37 ± 58.09), Mn (37.81 ± 5.82), Ni (3.12 ± 1.49), and Cr (10.87 ± 6.47). The Canadian, Nigerian and Chinese maximum allowable concentration for cadmium in soil were exceeded by 15%, 30%, and 85% of the soil samples, respectively. Heavy metals in all the rice samples evaluated were found to be above the World Health Organization (WHO) maximum permissible limit for lead, cadmium, and chromium. Strong positive and significant correlations were observed between some metal pairs in soil and rice indicating the similarity in origin. The estimated daily intakes of Pb and Cd from rice grown on the fields were higher than the safety levels established by WHO and the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee Food Additive, respectively. Hazard quotients and total hazard index for Pb and Cd were greater than 1. This indicates that consumption of rice from these fields will likely induce adverse health effects arising largely from Pb and Cd exposure.     

Heavy metal contamination and health risk assessment in drinking water of Sistan and Baluchistan,Southeastern Iran

Access to safe and clean drinking water is an essential element of healthy life also known as the primary human needs. The present study was conducted to investigate heavy metal (HM) concentrations of drinking water. Excess health risk of HM (Cr, Pb, and Cd) intake is related to the drinking water consumption in local population. HMs concentrations were analyzed by using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometer and were compared with permissible limits regulated by country and World Health Organization (WHO). The hazard quotient (HQ) and Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) were determined to show the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects of HMs, respectively. HQs were found in the order of Pb > Cd > Cr and subsequently HI index was also estimated for all HM in two age groups (children and adults). The comparisons indicate no possibility of non-carcinogenic effects to the local population. The values for ELCR were found in the order of Cr > Cd > Pb. The ELCR index was found above acceptable risk levels for chromium and cadmium in both children and adults groups. Furthermore, intermetal correlation results revealed that heavy metals have common sources resulting from geogenic and anthropogenic activities and these are major sources of water contamination in Sistan and Baluchestan province.     

Health risk assessment via consumption of Pb and Cd contaminated vegetables collected from fresh markets in the lower north of Thailand

This study aimed to investigate the Pb and Cd contamination and health risk assessment for population via consumption of vegetables sold in fresh markets around the lower north of Thailand. The concentrations of Pb and Cd in various vegetables such as root/tuber, stem, inflorescence, fruit, and leaf vegetables were analyzed using an atomic absorption spec-trophotometer. Human health risks of these metals in vegetables were assessed based on target hazard quotient (THQ). The results indicated that more than 80% of the Pb and Cd in almost all vegetable samples exceeded the maximum allowable concentration by National Food Institute criteria with an average range of 0.96–3.39 and 0.48–1.40 mg/kg, respectively. The estimated daily intakes (EDI) of Pb and Cd via dietary consumption of vegetables were between 0.001–0.010 and 0.002–0.008 mg/kg/d, respectively. All EDIs of Pb contaminated vegetables were higher than the reference dose recommended by the USEPA except for leaf edible vegetables, while all EDIs of Cd contaminated vegetables were higher than the reference dose recommended by the USEPA. THQ indicated that the consumption of Pb contaminated root/tuber, stem, inflorescence, and fruit edible vegetables and Cd contaminated leaf vegetable for the local population in the lower north of Thailand could be a severe health risk problem.     

A human health risk assessment of soil and crops contaminated by heavy metals in industrial regions,central Iran

In this study, the concentrations of heavy metal (Cd, Pb, Fe, and Ni) in contaminated soils adjacent to two steel mill companies and in three crops (i.e., wheat, rice, and onion) grown in these regions were compared with a non-industrial site in Isfahan province, central Iran. The results were manifold. The heavy metal concentrations of both the soil and crops within the two industrial regions turned out to be more significant than the nonindustrial counterpart. In addition, the soils surrounding the companies were demonstrated to be contaminated by Cd, Pb, and Ni according to the limits provided by the international standards (i.e., USEPA and European Union standards). As for the crops from the investigated contaminated sites, the mean concentrations of Cd, Ni, and Pb exceeded the maximum permissible levels for human consumption stipulated by FAO/WHO standards. Furthermore, the values gained from the target hazard quotient were above one, meaning that the crops are contaminated. Given the results gained from a comparison made between estimated daily intake and tolerable daily intake, it can be concluded that the inhabitants of the two investigated contaminated sites are at a potentially serious health risk caused by exposure to the crops contaminated with the heavy metal.     

Health risk perspectives of metal(loid) exposure via consumption of striped venus clam (Chamelea gallina Linnaeus, 1758)

The metal(loid)s are mainly transported to the Black Sea via rivers and affect the coastal area where fisheries are intensive. Chamelea gallina (striped venus clam) is the most abundant mollusk species in the Black Sea and used as a bioindicator for monitoring of metal(loid) pollution. In this respect, the concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn in C. gallina collected from 16 different locations along the Black Sea coast (Turkey, Bulgaria, and Russia) were determined and evaluated for the potential human health risk. The results obtained were found to be below the maximum permissible limits indicated in the food safety guidelines. Similarly, the analyzed metal(loid)s did not pose a potential hazard to humans for consumption of the C. gallina, regarding provisional tolerable weekly intake described by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). Moreover, target hazard quotient and hazard index were found to be lower than 1 for not only average consumer but also the consumer who consumed a portion (160 g) once a week. In contrast, consumption of C. gallina could cause health risks for Cd and As in case of increasing portion sizes.     

Heavy metal accumulation in rice (Oryza sativa) near electronic waste dumps and related human health risk assessment

This research was conducted to assess heavy metal contamination in the environment and within Oryza sativa. The translocation factors (TFs) and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) for heavy metals in O. sativa and estimated daily intake (EDI) and health risk index (HRI) were measured. The samples were analyzed for heavy metals using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). Pb and Cr concentrations in water samples within and near the electronic-waste dumping area exceeded water quality standards for surface water sources from the Pollution Control Department in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Thailand (PCD). The Pb concentration in soil samples within the area also exceeded soil quality standards for habitat and agriculture from PCD. Most of the metals were highly concentrated in roots, except for Mn which has the highest concentration in leaves. Pb concentrations in rice grains exceeded the FAO/WHO standard (0.2 mg/kg). The average TF values for heavy metals from the soil to roots, roots to stems, stems to leaves, and stems to grains were Mn > Pb > Ni > Cr, Mn > Cr > Ni > Pb, Ni > Pb > Mn > Cr, and Pb > Ni > Cr > Mn, respectively. The average BAF values in O. sativa were Mn > Ni > Pb > Cr. The EDI for Cr, Pb, Mn, and Ni via O. sativa consumption were 6.19, 6.02, 370.57, and 3.80 µg/kg/day, respectively. The HRI for Cr, Pb, Mn, and Ni via O. sativa consumption were 0.30, 1.50, 2.60, and 0.002, respectively.     

Health risk assessment of heavy metals in shellfish collected from Fujian,China

Abstract

With industrialization and human activities, shellfish may be contaminated by various pollutants such as heavy metals. This study aims at the concentrations of As, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Sn, Sb and Pb in shellfish collected from Fujian of China, and the risk of heavy metals in shellfish on human health based on target hazard quotients (THQ). Results showed that the THQ values of the elements were far below 1, except for As with an average value of 1.148 in razor clam. No detrimental health effects of heavy metals on humans health was observed by daily consumption of mussel and oyster, but the exposed population to short-necked clam, scallop and razor clam might experience noncarcinogenic health risks because each of the total THQ values was above 1 for the three shellfish.     

Distribution and health risk assessment of heavy metals in soil surrounding a lead and zinc smelting plant in Zanjan,Iran

One of the problematic issues in soil pollution studies is heavy metal particles which are produced by mines and smelting units and spread through wind action and/or runoff. Pollution and health risk assessment of cadmium, lead, zinc, copper, and nickel in soil around the lead and zinc smelting factory was carried out in Zanjan City, Iran. Contamination factor (Cf), pollution load index (PLI), geoaccumulation index (Igeo), hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI), and carcinogenic risk were pollution and human health risk assessment metrics in this study. Based on the Iranian soil guideline value, soil samples in the studied areas were contaminated the least by copper and nickel and the most by cadmium. PLI results showed that soils near the production line were heavily or extremely heavily polluted. The results of Cf and Igeo showed that lead and zinc were the most important contaminants. Health risk assessment indicated that lead and cadmium in soil were the main contaminants, which pose both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to human health; carcinogenic risk levels were unacceptably high (above 1 × 10^?4). It can be concluded that mining and smelting activities degrade soil quality in this region and the soil pollution might be extended to farming areas.     

Health risk assessment of heavy metals via dietary intake of wheat in Golestan Province,Iran

Concentration of five heavy metals including lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), and zinc (Zn) in wheat collected from silages of Golestan Province, Iran, was determined using atomic absorption spectroscopy. Dry ashing method was applied for precise determination of the five heavy metal contents. The concentrations of heavy metals were recorded as the following: Pb (0.013–0.14), Cd (0.008–0.031) by graphite furnace method and Cu (0.48–6.2), Fe (58.50–406.9), and Zn (3.41–32.75) by flame method, all in mg.kg^?1. The mean concentration of all the aforementioned heavy metals was (0.057 ± 0.003), (0.016 ± 0.005), (2.7 ± 0.17), (111.2 ± 21), and (5.7 ± 0.22) mg.kg^?1, respectively. The level of heavy metals decreased in the order of Fe>Zn>Cu>Pb > Cd. Highest amount was related to Fe and the lowest amount to Cd. Concentrations of heavy metals in all the wheat samples were below the permissible limits set by the Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization and Iranian National Standard Organization and did not pose any threat to the health of consumers.     

Drinking water quality and arsenic health risk assessment in Sistan and Baluchestan,Southeastern Province,Iran

Access to drinking water is one of the most important indicators determined by the World Health Organization (WHO). This investigation surveyed the concentration of various pollutants in drinking water and its health risk attribute to Arsenic in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran. Water samples were collected from ground water and analyzed for physical parameters, anions, and heavy metals using the standard procedures. The concentrations of sulfate (269 ± 127 mg/l) in five sites exceeded the permissible limit (250 mg/l), while chlorine concentrations (223 ± 100 mg/l) in four sites exceeded the permissible limit (250 mg/l) set by WHO. Similarly, the concentrations of Mg (30 ± 11 mg/l) in four sites exceeded the permissible limit (30 mg/l), while Na concentrations (222 ± 99 mg/l) in five sites exceeded the permissible limit (200 mg/l) set by Institute of Standards and Industrial Research of Iran (ISIRI). In addition, arsenic was in acceptable levels recommended by WHO and local regulations. Based on the calculated indices of hazard qutient (HR) and excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), the in-use drinking water has no adverse effects on the consumer's health. Excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides, unsuitable sewerage systems, and inappropriate sludge and solid waste disposal in this province can lead to drinking water pollution. Also, excessive pumping of ground water should be managed as an effective method for supply of safe drinking water.     

Occurrence and risk assessment of organophosphorus pesticide residues in Chinese tea

Tea is the second widely consumed beverage next to water. Tea drinking is one of the important pathways for human exposure of organonphosphorus pesticide. Consequently, incidence of organonphosphorus pesticide residues and risk assessment should be clear. In this study, the level of organonphosphorus pesticide residues in 810 Chinese teas manufactured between 2010–2013 was investigated using gas chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry and a flame photometric detector. Incidence of organonphosphorus pesticide residues occurred with a frequency of 29% and the average concentration of 93 μg kg^?1. The residue levels varied from tea types, sale spots, and production area. Chlorpyrifos, isocarbophos, and triazophos were the only three organonphosphorus pesticides with detectable residues, and the detectable rates were 13.0%, 13.6%, and 17.4%, respectively. The corresponding average daily intake of chlorpyrifos, isocarbophos, and triazophos by tea drinking was 0.000083 μg kg^?1 bw day^?1, 0.0036 μg kg^?1 bw day^?1, and 0.0022 μg kg^?1 bw day^?1. These results showed that the total hazard quotient of organonphosphorus pesticide pesticides from tea drinking was less than 0.02 and that the tea-drinking originated organonphosphorus pesticide exposure had a little adverse health effect for human being.     

Non-carcinogenic risk assessment to human health due to intake of fluoride in the groundwater in rural areas of Gonabad and Bajestan,Iran: A case study

In this study, a field research regarding groundwater contamination with fluoride and its related health risks to human health was carried out in 39 rural areas of Gonabad and Bajestan, Iran, in 2017. The results indicated that fluoride levels in two rural areas exceeded the WHO guideline. A total of 55% and 4.7% of the studied rural areas in Gonabad and Bajestan, respectively, had fluoride levels below the minimum recommended value of WHO for fluoride (0.5 mg/L). In this article, chronic non-cancer risks to three different groups of people, adults, children, and infants, for exposure to the fluoride were assessed. Health risk index values for fluoride contamination for 44% and 90% of children and infants in rural areas of Gonabad and Bajestan, respectively, were more than unity (>1), which clearly reveals that these age groups at the studied areas are at the chronic health risk due to the intake of fluoride-containing water. The order of fluoride contribution to non-carcinogenic health risk among the studied age groups was infants > children > adults. Therefore, from a public health viewpoint, it would be prudent and important that risk reduction measures be implemented to diminish the total body burden of fluoride in residents.     

Health Risk Assessment of Fluoride Exposure in Soil,Plants, and Water at Isfahan,Iran

Fluoride is a potentially toxic element, with a narrow range of tolerable amounts taken up via food or drinking water. To evaluate F content in surface soils, 255 topsoil samples (0–20 cm) in an area of 6800 km² in Isfahan province of central Iran were collected. Crop plants and randomly sampled water samples from wells were evaluated during the spring and summer seasons. Total F concentration in 96% of soil samples was lower than the global suggested average of 200 mg kg^?1. The mean F concentration of water samples in the study area was 0.05 and 0.3 mg L^?1 in summer and spring, respectively. Fluoride concentrations in different plant species were in the range of normal values. The total hazard quotient (HQ) for both population groups via consumption of cereals, vegetables, and water; incidental ingestion of soil; inhalation of soil particulates; and dermal contact with water and soil was less than 1.0, resembling no obvious risk. It is suggested that neither age group in Isfahan province will experience a significant potential health risk through their dietary intake of cereals, vegetables, and water; ingestion of soil; inhalation of particulates; and dermal contact.     

Contamination level and human health hazard assessment of heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in street dust deposited in Mahshahr,southwest of Iran

Mahshahr has a strategic position and is considered as industrial hub of Iran. Selected heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contamination and health risk, and the mineralogical composition of street dust from Mahshahr were investigated. Results indicated that geology is the main determinant of the dust mineralogical composition. Calculated enrichment factor (EF) and principal component analysis (PCA) showed that Pb, Hg, Zn, and Cu accumulations are greatly influenced by anthropogenic sources including traffic and industry. High heavy metals content poses great ecological risk in the study area and exposure doses revealed that ingestion is the main exposure route to street dust, especially for children in residential/commercial areas. It was found that the total amount of PAHs (∑PAHs) varies from 161 to 1996 µg/kg, dominated by four-ring PAHs. Diagnostic ratios and PCA showed that both petrogenic and pyrogenic sources of PAHs in Mahshahr street dust and traffic play important roles in this respect. Furthermore, toxic equivalents and incremental lifetime cancer risk of PAHs in street dust indicated a high potential carcinogenic risk for inhabitants mainly via dermal contact and ingestion pathways particularly for outdoor workers in industrial use scenario. Finally, distribution maps of total hazard index of heavy metals and cancer risk of PAHs indicated the most impacted zones for different groups and use scenarios.     

Hazardous metals levels in groundwater from Gokana,Rivers State,Nigeria: Non-cancer and cancer health risk assessment

This study investigated heavy metals concentration in groundwater in six coastal communities in Gokana, Rivers State, namely, Gbe, K-Dere, B-Dere, Mogho, Kpor and Bodo City and the human health risk posed to the local populace via ingestion and dermal contact using non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risk assessment. The mean values of the heavy metals ranged between 0.02–0.86, 0.16–0.19, 0.03–0.10, 0.02–0.03 and 0.01–0.17 for Mn, Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr, respectively. The heavy metals were above the drinking water quality recommended limits in all the study sites. Estimations of average daily dose (ADD) and dermal absorbed dose (DAD) health risk indicates that Mn, Ni and Pb posed human health risk via ingestion contact pathway. However, hazard index (HI) values of Cd and Cr for ingestion pathway were >1.0 and the estimated Lifetime of Carcinogenic Risks (LTCR) for Ni, Cd and Cr exceeded the predicted lifetime risk for carcinogens of 10^?6 from ingestion pathway. Furthermore, there were more appreciable risk from Ni and Cr in the study sites as LTCR value in most sites were >10^?4_. This study indicates possible non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic human health hazard from groundwater consumption in Gokana via oral ingestion.     

Drinking water quality and risk implications for community health: A case study of shallow water wells and boreholes in three major communities in Northern Cross-River,Southern Nigeria

The quality of water sources and its potential health implications to adults and children populations of respective major communities in Northern Cross-River was assessed. Water samples (n = 10/water source/site) were collected from three (Okpoma, Okuku and Ugaga) communities and heavy metal concentrations (Lead (Pb), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Manganese (Mn), Nickel (Ni), Copper (Cu), Cobalt (Co), and Zinc (Zn)) were evaluated using Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS). Overall, Pb, Cd, Ni, and Co were higher than drinking water guidelines, while only Cr, Mn, Cu, and Zn were within the permissible limits. The estimated average daily intake (EADI) and target hazard quotient (THQ) were used to determine risk implications for adult and children consumer populations. The EADI for Pb in adults for borehole water, Pb and Cr by child consumer population for borehole and shallow well water exceeded the reference dose (RfD) by USEPA. The THQ for adult population were >1 for Pb in borehole water and >1 for Pb and Cr across all sites for the child consumer population. Overall, our findings indicate toxicity and higher hazard risk for both adult (Pb) and children (Pb and Cr) populations that source drinking water from borehole and shallow well water in these communities.     

Bioaccessibility of heavy metals in rapa whelk Rapana venosa (Valenciennes, 1846): Assessing human health risk using an in vitro digestion model

Instead of total metal concentration measurements in seafood, bioaccessibility is a more important parameter for human health risk assessment. Therefore, bioaccessibility of Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn in the edible soft tissues of rapa whelk (Rapana venosa Valenciennes, 1846) collected along the southern Black Sea coast were investigated using an in vitro digestion model. Zn was detected at the highest concentration, whereas Ni was the lowest for total metal concentrations. Total Cd and Pb concentration in the tissues were found to be higher than maximum permissible limits set by European Commission. The bioaccessibility of metals in the tissues was found to be decreased in the order: Cu (77.11%) > Cd (70.13%) > Zn (64.52%) > Ni (61.27%) > Pb (50.53%) > Cr (43.41%) > Mn (22.59%). While significant positive linear regressions were observed between the total and bioaccessible concentrations for Mn, Pb, and Ni, significant negative linear regressions were found for Cd in the tissues (p < 0.05). The hazard quotients (HQ) calculated using bioaccessible heavy metal amount were detected lower than the limit value (HQ < 1), which may not pose a potential hazard to humans declared by US Environmental Protection Agency. However, the consumption of rapa whelk may cause a potential risk concerning human health for the Cd and Pb levels in case of increased serving sizes and portions.     

International programme on chemical safety (IPCS) environmental health criteria on boron human health risk assessment

The International Program on Chemical Safety (IPCS), a collaborative program of the United Nations Environment Program, the International Labour Organization (ILO), and the World Health Organization (WHO), includes the Environmental Health Criteria (EHC) Program inaugurated in 1973 by WHO. These EHC are integrated evaluations of the human health and environmental risks from exposure to specific chemicals carried out by a group of international scientists. Boron (B) was evaluated at an IPCS Task Group (TG) convened in November 1996. All TGs are convened under WHO rules and procedures. These procedures relate the overall process used to prepare an EHC including transparency of the process, conflict of interest, the roles of Members and Observers, and the conduct of the TG. The scope and purpose of an EHC, for an element such as B, and its possible role in national and international chemical safety programs will be discussed. In the early 1990s, countries asked that IPCS request TGs to prepare, where data permit, health-based guidance values (GVs) (both total daily intake and to recommend health-based guidelines for various environmental media). This final evaluation in an EHC reflects the collective consensus view of the TG Members. To foster the use of consistent methodology by TGs, IPCS prepared in 1994 an EHC on the methodology for the preparation of GVs for human exposure limits (EHC 170). In developing their final evaluation, TGs have been asked to consider using this methodology. This was done by the TG on B, and a total daily intake for humans of 0.4 mg/kg body wt was derived from animal studies of reproductive and developmental effects in rodents and pharmacokinetic data from both animals and humans. The application of the methodology described in EHC 170 regarding choice of critical effect and uncertainty factors will be discussed.