Ecological mechanisms of population change during outbreaks of the spruce budworm

Abstract.  1. Stage-specific survival and recruitment of spruce budworm were measured by frequent sampling of foliage in four outbreak populations over a 15-year period in Ontario and Quebec, Canada.
2. Patterns of change in population density during the outbreak collapse phase were closely linked to changes in survival of the late immature stages, and were determined largely by the impact of natural enemies.
3. Host-plant feedback also contributed significantly to survival patterns throughout the outbreak: annual defoliation influenced survival of fourth and fifth instars and fecundity while cumulative defoliation influenced survival of the very early larval stages (first and second) via impacts on stand condition.
4. Inclusion of this host-plant feedback reveals spruce budworm population dynamics as a function of density-related trophic interactions that vary in their order and strength of influence over time. This view re-introduces the importance of forest interactions as a component of dynamics of the spruce budworm.     

Forest composition, host-population density, and parasitism of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana eggs by Trichogramma minutum

The frequency of egg parasitism in the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) by Trichogramma minutum Riley (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) was recorded in several host populations during the rising phase of an outbreak in the Gatineau Valley (Quebec, Canada) in 1999 and 2000. Some of the observed spruce budworm populations were subjected to experimental aerial applications of Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki during the course of the study. Untreated spruce budworm population densities at the onset of the study were directly related to stand composition (the proportion of non‐host basal area) but unrelated to plant species diversity. Much of the variation in budworm egg mass parasitism rates was accounted for (77.1% of total variance) by three variables: year, spruce budworm egg population density, and proportion of non‐host basal area in the stand. The exploitation of eggs within parasitised egg masses was related to year, B. thuringiensis treatment, egg mass size, and the proportion of egg masses parasitised in the host population (76.9% of variance). The yearly variation in parasitism rate was considerable, and was consistent with climatic conditions, namely heat accumulation and precipitation during the spruce budworm oviposition period. Parasitism by T. minutum on eggs of C. fumiferana was recorded in 16 additional sites in 2000, to confirm the general form of the inverse density dependence of parasitism. Observations recorded by Neilson in the Green River area of New Brunswick (Canada) between 1948 and 1957 are discussed in the context of the present analysis. These results indicate that parasitism by T. minutum may be more predictable than previously believed and may be an important and consistent source of mortality in the several years preceding an outbreak of C. fumiferana, especially in mixed‐wood stands and in warmer, drier portions of the spruce budworm's range.     

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura spp.) biotype reactions to forest and climate characteristics

The spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is the most destructive insect defoliator of forests in North America. Climatic influences on this species' life history are considered a major factor in restricting the extent and intensity of outbreaks. We examine the life history traits of the spruce budworm and related Choristoneura populations with respect to forecasting the conifer‐feeding responses of these insects in changing environments. Analysis of the evolutionary relationships between Choristoneura entities, including their hybridization, genetic distances, and their degree of sympatry leads us to distinguish 15 possible Choristoneura‘biotypes’. Population trend has been associated with recruitment to the feeding stage, and two indicators of recruitment, egg weights and phenological development, are both ‘biotype’ and climate dependent. Among Abietoid feeding ‘biotypes’ and among spruce budworm populations, those from locations with extreme winters tend to have heavier eggs than those from the more benign environments. In spruce budworm, this genetically based adaptation allows populations to increase their potential recruitment substantially where winters are mild. All biotypes feed on the newly developed shoots of their host trees in spring, and are thus vulnerable to the uncertain timing of budbreak. Genetic control of spring emergence is weak so larvae from a single family typically exit from hibernacula over a prolonged period. This guarantees some synchronization with budburst. However, hybrid populations have high heritabilities. This allows rapid adaptation to new conditions (e.g. mixed host‐species stands). Geographic variation in phenological development after establishing feeding sites is largely genetically controlled. The importance of variation in these traits is examined with respect to competing population dynamics theories to evaluate their utility in forecasting future trends in defoliation. We finish with a plea for jointly using alternative approaches in forecasting spatiotemporal patterns of defoliation.     

The fine-scale population dynamics of spruce budworm: survival of early instars related to forest condition

Abstract.  1. A lagged, density-dependent relationship between survival of early instars and host-tree condition is revealed during outbreaks of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. Persistent damage to hosts leads to deterioration of the stand.
2. Resource limitation affects survival during early-instar dispersal of spruce budworm. Impediments to distinguishing these events with estimates of survival were overcome with a simple model that describes the dispersal and survival processes. The model was used to analyse a recent 15-year population series from Black Sturgeon Lake and two historical datasets from Green River, in Canada.
3. Defoliation-induced damage to the trees resulted in increased losses of spring-emerging larvae that are dispersing in search of feeding sites. Losses were further exacerbated by biotic factors such as maternal fecundity, rates of infection by the pathogen, Nosema fumiferanae , and by weather-related effects on the foraging period.
4. Survival of early-stage budworm larvae in persistent outbreaks declined and the likelihood of other density-related factors such as rate of mortality from natural enemies increased. These results may reconcile outstanding differences in interpretation of the role of the forest resource in spruce budworm population dynamics and point to a common process linking the dynamics of other well-known budworm species.     

The changing relation of landscape patterns and jack pine budworm populations during an outbreak

The influence of landscape patterns on ecological processes is generally acknowledged, but often difficult to quantify. The objective of our study was to quantify the relation of jack pine budworm ( Choristoneura pinus pinus ) population levels to both the abundance of jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) and of jack pine stand edges in the landscape. The 450 000 ha Pine Barrens region, located in northwestern Wisconsin, USA, experienced a severe jack pine budworm outbreak from 1990 to 1995. We calculated landscape indices on a landcover map derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery. Landscape indices were calculated on circular buffers (0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, and 2.5 km radius) centered on 143 budworm population sampling points for which annual budworm counts were available. Edge density was normalized for the proportion of jack pine in the landscape using random maps as a standard. Correlations between landscape patterns and budworm populations varied over time: proportion of jack pine showed strongest positive correlation with budworm population levels up to the peak of the outbreak (1993). Edge density exhibited positive correlation up to the peak of the outbreak, but negative correlation in the subsequent years as the outbreak declined. This may suggest that pollen-bearing male cones, which are more abundant along edges, support higher budworm populations in the initial phase of the outbreak, but stronger predation on budworm along edges subsequently reduces populations. We provide insight into previously inconclusive results on the relation of jack pine budworm population density to jack pine stand edges. The effects of landscape patterns, such as edge density, may vary not only in magnitude, but also in direction, being positive and negative during different phases of an insect outbreak. Therefore, caution should be taken in relating landscape patterns to process at either a single scale or point in time.     

Potential Role of Spruce Budworm in Range-Wide Decline of Canada Warbler

ABSTRACT The Canada warbler (Wilsonia canadensis) is one of many common neotropical migrants whose populations are in decline across their range. Influences of habitat loss and degradation on breeding or wintering grounds have been postulated as possible causes, but few empirical data exist to support a specific cause. Based on previous studies linking abundances of Canada warbler and spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), we hypothesized that the Canada warbler may be influenced by a persistent decline in spruce budworm throughout the bird's breeding range, a hypothesis that has received little attention. This hypothesis makes 5 predictions: 1) budworm outbreaks and warbler detections should be spatially and temporally coincident; 2) the relationship between Canada warbler and spruce budworm outbreaks should be similar to relationships for other warblers known to be spruce budworm associates; 3) the relationship should be stronger than for warblers lacking an association with spruce budworm; 4) because temporal trends of both spruce budworm and Canada warblers have varied throughout Canadian provinces, declines in Canada warblers should be seen only in provinces where spruce budworm also declined; and 5) variation in Canada warbler abundance should reflect variation in supply of preferred habitat for the spruce budworm if habitat rather than budworm abundance is the key. Our analyses supported predictions 1–4, suggesting that Canada warbler may be even more closely associated with spruce budworm than are known associated species, a phenomenon noted in the literature but previously unexplained. Prediction 5 was not supported, because budworm habitat (area of mature and older balsam fir [Abies balsamea] and white spruce [Picea glauca]) remained constant in Ontario while warbler abundance declined. Although the correlative nature of these results precludes inference of a causal relationship between the declines of the Canada warbler and spruce budworm, we postulate that potential links may exist directly, where spruce budworm outbreaks provide elevated levels of insect prey items for breeding Canada warblers, or indirectly through changes in forest structure and composition following outbreaks. These results have implications when considering long-term trends in Canada warbler populations, because it may be impossible to alter population trends for species linked to the timing and magnitude of spruce budworm outbreaks.     

Identifying spatial relationships at multiple scales: principal coordinates of neighbour matrices (PCNM) and geostatistical approaches

We compared two methodological approaches – principal coordinate analysis of neighbour matrices (PCNM) and geostatistics – that both aim at extracting several spatial scales in order to identify spatial relationships between organisms and environmental variables at multiple scales. From a statistical point of view, PCNM analysis and geostatistics come from "two different worlds"– PCNM is based on classical "data analysis" while geostatistical modelling is developed in a probabilistic context. These two methods were used to investigate the spatial relationships between defoliation caused by spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana and bioclimatic conditions in Ontario since 1941 through a wide range of scales. On the one hand, PCNM variables related to defoliation frequency were partitioned into four spatial submodels representing respectively four spatial scales: very broad scale (ca>300 km), broad scale (ca 180 km), fine (ca 100 km), and very fine (<80 km). On the other hand, nested variogram modelling was used to identify the relevant scales. The nested variogram model was composed of four variograms with different characteristic scales close to those of the PCNM spatial submodels. Maps of PCNM submodels and kriging components revealed similar spatial patterns of defoliation frequency at very broad and broad scales while spatial patterns at fine and very fine scales looked quite different. Both methods showed that defoliation by spruce budworm occurs at the broader spatial scales but may be explained by fluctuations at the smaller scales. Finally, results based on geostatistics using a Linear Model of Coregionalisation suggested that climatic conditions can be considered to act at the level of outbreak dynamics while the tree community of spruce budworm's principal hosts controls local population dynamics.     

Variation in wood anatomical structure of Douglas-fir defoliated by the western spruce budworm: a case study in the coastal-transitional zone of British Columbia,Canada

Key message

An outbreak of the western spruce budworm temporarily modifies cellular wood anatomy of stem wood in natural and mature Douglas-fir stands impacting wood quality properties.

Abstract

Western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) is a widespread and destructive defoliator of commercially important coniferous forests in western North America. In British Columbia, Canada, Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] is the most important and widely distributed host. Permanent sample plots were established at a number of locations in southern interior at the beginning of a severe western spruce budworm outbreak in the 1970s. Two of the sites were sampled in 2012 to determine whether modifications had occurred in the anatomical characteristics of stem wood formed during outbreak years. We determined that rings formed during the western spruce budworm 1976–1980 outbreak had a significantly lower proportion of latewood, reduced mean cell wall thickness and smaller radial cell diameters. While the cellular characteristics of the earlywood remained fairly constant, significant reductions in lumen area occurred in 1978 and 1979 at each site. Our study shows that western spruce budworm outbreaks not only reduce annual radial growth, but also temporarily modify cellular characteristics in latewood cells, which has implications for wood density and quality in Douglas-fir.     

Future Spruce Budworm Outbreak May Create a Carbon Source in Eastern Canadian Forests

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) is an important and recurrent disturbance throughout spruce (Picea sp.) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea L.) dominated forests of North America. Forest carbon (C) dynamics in these ecosystems are affected during insect outbreaks because millions of square kilometers of forest suffer growth loss and mortality. We tested the hypothesis that a spruce budworm outbreak similar to those in the past could switch a forest from a C sink to a source in the near future. We used a model of ecosystem C to integrate past spruce budworm impact sequences with current forest management data on 106,000 km² of forest in eastern Québec. Spruce budworm-caused mortality decreased stand-level merchantable C stocks by 11–90% and decreased ecosystem C stocks by 2–10% by the end of the simulation. For the first 13 years (2011–2024), adding spruce budworm significantly reduced ecosystem C stock change for the landscape from a sink (4.6 ± 2.7 g C m⁻² y⁻¹ in 2018) to a source (−16.8 ± 3.0 g C m⁻² y⁻¹ in 2018). This result was mostly due to reduced net primary production. The ecosystem stock change was reduced on average by 2 Tg C y⁻¹ for the entire simulated area. This study provides the first estimate that spruce budworm can significantly affect the C sink or source status of a large landscape. These results indicate that reducing spruce budworm impacts on timber may also provide an opportunity to mitigate a C source.     

Interguild interactions between a non-native phloem feeder and a native outbreaking defoliator

1. Competitive and synergistic interactions directly or indirectly drive community dynamics of herbivorous insects. Novel interactions between non-native and native insects are unpredictable and not fully understood. 2. We used manipulative experiments on mature red spruce trees to test interactions between a non-native phloem feeding insect, the brown spruce longhorn beetle (BSLB), and an outbreaking native defoliator, the spruce budworm. We subjected treatment trees to defoliation by three densities of spruce budworm larvae. Treatment trees were: stressed by (i) girdling (to mimic beetle feeding) or (ii) girdling + BSLB before spruce budworm larvae were introduced on branches in sleeve cages. Budworm larvae then fed on foliage and developed to pupation. We assessed all branches for budworm performance, defoliation, shoot production and shoot growth. 3. Shoot length did not differ in response to stress from girdling or BSLB infestation. Neither stress from girdling, nor interactions with BSLB feeding affected spruce budworm performance or defoliation. Intraspecific impacts on performance and defoliation in relation to budworm density were stronger than the effects of tree stress. 4. Prior infestation of red spruce by BSLB in our experimental set-up did not influence spruce budworm performance. BSLB is a successful invader that has blended into its novel ecological niche because of ecological and phylogenetic similarities with a native congener, Tetropium cinnamopterum. 5. Outbreaks by BSLB will not likely impede or facilitate spruce budworm outbreaks if they co-occur. It would be useful to evaluate the reverse scenario of BSLB success after defoliation stress by spruce budworm.     

Larval feeding behaviour affects the impact of staminate flower production on the suitability of balsam fir trees for spruce budworm

Laboratory rearing of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, in conjunction with field rearing indicated that the feeding behaviour of the larvae, which is affected by the insect population density, significantly influenced the impact of balsam fir, Abies balsamea, staminate flowering on spruce budworm biology. At low budworm density, the production of pollen in the midcrown of host trees reduced the insect development time by 5 days without affecting pupal weight, fecundity and survival. However, at high budworm density, the small amount of current-year foliage produced by flowering branches forced old larvae (sixth instar) either to feed on 1-year-old foliage (backfeeding) or to move from the midcrown to the lower crown section where staminate flowers are absent and more current-year foliage is available. When old larvae fed on old foliage, they exhibited reduced pupal weight and fecundity without losing the advange in development time that they obtained from feeding on pollen during their early stages of development. On the other hand, when old larvae moved to the lower crown section, they avoided the negative effects of backfeeding but lost the advantage in development time that was gained from feeding on pollen. Results from this study indicated that the production of staminate flowers by balsam fir trees could have opposite effects on spruce budworm population dynamics depending upon the insect population density when flowering occurs.     

Phenotypic variation in food utilization in an outbreak insect herbivore

The effects of nutrition may have subtantial impact on insect evolution by shaping different components of phenotypes. The key to undestanding this evolutionary process is to know how nutritional condition affects additive and nonadditive components of the phenotype. However, this is poorly understood in outbreaking insects. We investigated the additive and nonadditive variation present in food utilization traits in spruce budworm individuals subjected to chronic nutritional stress. A total of 160 full‐sib families of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) were raised under laboratory conditions, feeding on 2 diets (high and low energy) during 3 generations. Variables tested were pupal mass, consumption rate (RCR), growth rate (RGR), approximate digestibility (AD), the efficiency of conversion of digested food (ECD) and the efficiency of conversion of ingested food (ECI). Our results show that all traits tested presented a high percentage of nonadditive effects that modulate phenotype expression. We found a significant impact of family × diet interaction on pupal mass, RGR and ECD. Furthermore, these traits exhibited the greatest heritability. There was no evidence of presence of maternal effects. The results revealed that food utilization traits may evolve through epigenetics effects, such as phenotypic plasticity. This information can be used by modellers to improve forecast of spruce budworm population dynamics.     

Variation in budburst phenology of Douglas-fir related to western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) fitness

Variation in budburst phenology among individual trees of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca [Beissn.] Franco) may influence their susceptibility to western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) defoliation. We tested the hypothesis that phenological asynchrony between Douglas-fir and the western spruce budworm is a mechanism of resistance using clones derived from parent trees that showed resistance versus susceptibility to C. occidentalis defoliation in the field. Susceptible clones had earlier budburst phenology compared with resistant clones when they were grown in a common greenhouse environment, demonstrating a genetic basis for parallel phenological differences exhibited by the parent trees. We tested the importance of phenological asynchrony as a factor influencing fitness of C. occidentalis using two different greenhouse bioassay experiments. One experiment compared western spruce budworm performance on equivalent phenological stages of susceptible and resistant clones by matching larval feeding to the columnar (fourth) bud development stage of each clone. Larvae reared on resistant clones had greater realized fitness (i.e., number of F1 offspring produced) than those reared on susceptible clones when the influence of variation in budburst phenology was minimized. In the other experiment, western spruce budworm larvae were placed on all trees on the same date when approximately 50% of all terminal buds in the population were in the yellow (second) budburst stage. Larvae reared on susceptible clones had greater realized fitness than those reared on resistant clones when the influence of phenological asynchrony was expressed. Our results suggest that resistant phenotypes of Douglas-fir have negative effects on survival and reproduction of C. occidentalis under the natural conditions that insects and trees experience in the field. Genetic variation among trees in budburst phenology has an important influence on interactions between the western spruce budworm and Douglas-fir.     

Behaviors of Western Spruce Budworm Moths (Choristoneura occidentalis) as Defences Against Bat Predation

We investigated potential defense behaviors of adult western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis), a non-auditive lepidopteran, against bat predation. Although western spruce budworm moths started to fly before sunset, earlier than many species of moths, temporal isolation of flying moths from foraging bats was incomplete as moths were most active after sunset once bats were foraging. Flying C. occidentalis were most active close to their host trees, and thus were isolated from some bat activity because vegetation limits foraging by some bats. Moths mostly flew near the tops of trees, an area that may have a high predation pressure from bats. Resting western spruce budworm spent little time fluttering their wings or crawling, behaviors that are used as cues by gleaning bats. The outbreak nature of this species, in which large numbers of moths are active at one time, may allow dilution effects to reduce predation risk.     

Landscape host abundance and configuration regulate periodic outbreak behavior in spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana

Landscape‐level forest management has long been hypothesized to affect forest insect outbreak dynamics, but empirical evidence remains elusive. We hypothesized that the combination of increased hardwood relative to host tree species, prevalence of younger forests, and fragmentation of those forests due to forest harvesting legacies would reduce outbreak intensity, increase outbreak frequency, and decrease spatial synchrony in spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana outbreaks. We investigated these hypotheses using tree ring samples collected across 51 sites pooled into 16 subareas distributed across a large ecoregion spanning the international border between Ontario (Canada), and Minnesota (USA). This ecoregion contains contrasting land management zones with clear differences in forest landscape structure (i.e. forest composition and spatial configuration) while minimizing the confounding influence of climate. Cluster analyses of the 76‐yr time‐series generally grouped by subareas found within the same land management zone. Spatial nonparametric covariance analysis indicated that the highest and lowest degree of spatial synchrony of spruce budworm outbreaks were found within unmanaged wilderness and lands managed at fine spatial scales in Minnesota, respectively. Using multivariate analysis, we also found that forest composition, configuration, and climate together accounted for a total of 40% of the variance in outbreak chronologies, with a high level of shared variance between composition and configuration (13%) and between composition and climate (9%). At the scale of our study, climate on its own did not explain any of the spatial variation in outbreaks. Outbreaks were of higher frequency, lower intensity, and less spatially synchronized in more fragmented, younger forests with a lower proportion of host species, with opposing outbreak characteristics observed in regions characterised by older forests with more concentrated host species. Our study is the first quantitative evaluation of the long‐standing ‘silvicultural hypothesis’ of spruce budworm management specifically conducted at a spatio‐temporal scale for which it was intended.     

Not just for the birds: Spiders as natural enemies of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana,Clem.)

(1) The eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana, Clem.) is a native irruptive forest pest that defoliates spruce-fir forests throughout North America's boreal zone. (2) Past studies suggest that successful spruce budworm population control requires high natural mortality from a variety of sources, including predators, especially from parasitoids and birds. While well represented in many different ecosystems, the role of generalist predatory spiders in these boreal systems remains largely unstudied. (3) To determine the identity and percentage of spiders preying upon spruce budworm, we hand-collected spiders from balsam fir (Abies balsamea) in stands with relatively high spruce budworm densities from forests in insular Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. (4) Using a spruce budworm-specific TaqMan real-time PCR assay, we successfully amplified spruce budworm DNA in 32% of collected spiders. After spider molecular barcoding, we found the web builders Grammonota angusta Dondale, Pityohyphantes (aff. subarcticus), Dictyna brevitarsa Emerton and Estrandia grandaeva (Keyserling) represented 58% of the spiders feeding on spruce budworm, and the wandering hunter Philodromus rufus Dondale represented 11.8%. (5) Our molecular approach was an effective means with which to identify recently consumed prey and natural enemies in this boreal system.     

Spatial scale and the detection of density dependence in spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern North America

Using two tests for direct density dependence and standard techniques of time series analysis, we identified density dependence in defoliation time series of the spruce budworm across its outbreak range in eastern North America over the years 1945–1988. We carried out analyses for the entire region and for grid cells of defoliation maps at five spatial scales created by aggregating the smallest grid cells. The rate of detection of direct density dependence, as assessed by two previously published methods, decreased with increasing spatial scale. Using both methods, density dependence was detected more frequently at the periphery of the outbreak range, where defoliation rate was lower. This result suggested that density-dependent regulation may be stronger in those areas. The first order autoregressive process was the basic model for defoliation dynamics overall and the most common model across spatial scales. Second-order processes were encountered much less frequently, and those commonly identified as resulting from delayed density dependence generally occurred across spatial scales at a rate expected by chance alone. Our results were similar to those of other published studies, which have found the detection of density dependence to decrease at larger spatial scales. The results also reinforced the importance of considering spatial scale when diagnosing population processes using time series of abundance for single species. Received: 26 December 1999 / Accepted: 17 March 2000     

Three years of aerial field experiments with Bacillus thuringiensis plus chitinase formulation against the spruce budworm

From 1971 to 1973 several Bacillus thuringiensis formulations were tested in the field against larvae of the spruce budworm under various conditions of population and tree defoliation. The results showed B. thuringiensis treatments can be a weapon in the control of spruce budworm outbreaks and the beneficial effect of B. thuringiensis treatments appear to be prolonged over 1 or 2 years. A new compact formulation was developed making B. thuringiensis treatments more economical and competitive with chemical insecticides.     

Misleading correlations: The case of the Canada warbler and spruce budworm

In a recently published article Sleep et al. ( 2009 ) suggested that 30-yr declines in Canada warbler (1975–2005) based on Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data could be attributed to 30-yr declines in spruce budworm through a series of analyses based principally on correlations. We demonstrate that the relationship does not hold when a longer-term data set (1968–2008) is used for the analysis. Sleep et al. ( 2009 ) also demonstrated a positive relationship between correlations of Canada warbler abundance and time and spruce budworm defoliation and time using provincial data sets. We examined the underlying BBS data and found that there were insufficient observations of Canada warbler in the western provinces (Alberta and Manitoba) to support the conclusion because most Canada warbler observations occurred far (>100 km) from any budworm defoliation. As well, we used a density-dependent stochastic population growth model as proposed by Sleep et al. ( 2009 ) and found only 2 significant relationships (Nova Scotia, Alberta) between Canada warbler population growth rate and budworm defoliation at the provincial scale. We conclude that little analytical evidence exists to support the idea that Canada warbler decline is a function of spruce budworm decline. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.