动物巢区二维正态概率模型的探讨

本文根据二维正态分布的性质以及识别动物极端活动位点的技术建立了一种动物巢区二维正态概率模型。应用中,首先对动物活动位点进行二维正态分布检验,采用加权法消除了极端位点的影响。在二维正态分布条件下,动物巢区定义为由下列方程决定的椭圆区域d_β由下列方程组确定其中β为巢区所含活动位点百分比,a_i(i=1,2,…6)为常数。椭圆巢区两半轴长分别为d_β·面积为π·d_β·σ_x~2 ·椭圆的方向由坐标轴旋转角     

A new approach for estimating the efficiencies of the nucleotide substitution models

In this article, a new approach is presented for estimating the efficiencies of the nucleotide substitution models in a four-taxon case and then this approach is used to estimate the relative efficiencies of six substitution models under a wide variety of conditions. In this approach, efficiencies of the models are estimated by using a simple probability distribution theory. To assess the accuracy of the new approach, efficiencies of the models are also estimated by using the direct estimation method. Simulation results from the direct estimation method confirmed that the new approach is highly accurate. The success of the new approach opens a unique opportunity to develop analytical methods for estimating the relative efficiencies of the substitution models in a straightforward way.     

On Parametric Confidence Intervals for the Cost‐Effectiveness Ratio

When comparing two competing interventions, confidence intervals for cost‐effectiveness ratios (CERs) provide information on the uncertainty in their point estimates. Techniques for constructing these confidence intervals are much debated. We provide a formal comparison of the Fieller, symmetric and Bonferroni methods for constructing confidence intervals for the CER using only the joint asymptotic distribution of the incremental cost and incremental effectiveness of the two interventions being compared. We prove the existence of a finite interval under the Fieller method when the incremental effectiveness is statistically significant. When this difference is not significant the Fieller method yields an unbounded confidence interval. The Fieller interval is always wider than the symmetric interval, but the latter is an approximation to the Fieller interval when the incremental effectiveness is highly significant. The Bonferroni method is shown to produce the widest interval. Because it accounts for the likely correlation between cost and effectiveness measures, and the intuitively appealing relationship between the existence of a bounded interval and the significance of the incremental effectiveness, the Fieller interval is to be preferred in reporting a confidence interval for the CER.     

A Test for the Equality of Variances in the Paired Case with Incomplete Data

A modification of the numbers of degrees of freedom which makes the F ratio test of the equality of two variances applicable also in the paired case with incomplete data is suggested. Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the suggested test is reasonably powerful in many cases.     

两种核域估算方法在野生藏狐家域研究中的比较

核域是野生动物重点利用、含有更多居所、隐蔽场所及依赖性食物资源的区域。关于核域的确定和划分一直存在争议,且很难找到客观的并能准确展示动物生物学信息的数理统计方法。2006 年4 月,2006 年9 ～10月和2007 年1 ～4 月,我们共记录青海省都兰县沟里乡3 只藏狐的199 个活动位点,通过固定核空间(Fixed kernel)和调和平均值(Harmonic mean)模型,结合独立区域法的计算原理,估算藏狐的核域,并对两种估算方法进行比较分析,以确定更理想的核域数学模型。研究结果表明:(1)两种估算方法中核域面积均受到家域总面积的影响,固定核空间法的核域面积受家域总面积影响较大,而且变量系数不稳定; (2) 随着样本量的增加,固定核空间法估算的核域面积逐渐减小,而调和平均值法则增大,前者从数理统计上更好地描述了藏狐对家域资源的利用分布,后者更符合客观实际;(3)调和平均值法在划定家域边界时容易包括不属于家域范围的区域,而在估算核域时可以在一定程度上克服该缺陷;(4)调和平均值法能够真实地反应动物的活动中心,估算的核域中包含有更多的活动位点。因此,尽管在估算藏狐核域时固定核空间法有稳定的计算结果等优点,调和平均值法为更理想的核域估算模型。     

Proposal of k Sample Tests for Bivariate Censored Data for Nondecreasing Ordered Alternatives

Tests are introduced which are designed to test for a nondecreasing ordered alternative among the survival functions of k populations consisting of multiple observations on each subject. Some of the observations could be right censored. A simulation study is conducted comparing the proposed tests on the basis of estimated power when the underlying distributions are multivariate normal. Equal sample sizes of 20 with 25% censoring, and 40 with both 25% and 50% censoring are considered for 3 and 4 populations. All of the tests hold their α‐values well. A recommendation is made as to the best overall test for the situations considered.     

On Testing Equality of Means in the Paired Case with Incomplete Data on Both Responses

Several non iterative tests for the equality of two correlated means with missing data on both responses are compared by means of Monte Carlo studies. The main results are that a test due to LIN and STIVERS (1974) is to be preferred when the number of complete pairs is large, a WELCH type statistic with degrees of freedom modified in this paper when the correlation between the two responses is known to be low, and one of four suggested, one in this paper, maximum likelihood based tests when the number of complete pairs is small and there is no large variance inequality believed to exist.     

A Characterization of the Bivariate Exponential Distribution

In this article a characterisation of the Gumbel's Bivariate Exponential Distribution is established on the basis of the properties of the conditional expectation of the component variables. The characterising property is proposed as the definition of lack of memory in the bivariate case.     

Bivariate versus multivariate allometry: A note on a paper by Jungers and German

Jungers and German (1981) found differences when they compared 1) coefficients of allometry from bivariate plots of log measurements versus log body weight with 2) those coefficients from the first principal component of the log measurements excluding body weight. It is argued here that an arbitrary choice of unit for “internal size” is all that separates these coefficients. When the unit is chosen to make internal size isometric with body weight the coefficients agree rather well.     

藏狐家域功能分区及其生物学特性比较

家域是野生动物生态学研究中重要的基础概念之一,对家域的研究有助于认识动物在特定时期的生态学需求和采取的生活史对策.