Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics

Background

Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available.

Methodology and Findings

We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales.     

A comparison of created and natural wetlands in Pennsylvania,USA

Recent research suggests that created wetlands do not look, or function, like the natural systems they are intended to replace. Proper planning, construction, and the introduction of appropriate biotic material should initiate natural processes which continue indefinitely in a successful wetland creation project, with minimal human input. To determine if differences existed between created and natural wetlands, we compared soil matrix chroma, organic matter content, rock fragment content, bulk density, particle size distribution, vegetation species richness, total plant cover, and average wetland indicator status in created (n = 12) and natural (n = 14)wetlands in Pennsylvania (USA). Created wetlands ranged in age from two to 18 years. Soils in created wetlands had less organic matter content, greater bulk densities, higher matrix chroma, and more rock fragments than reference wetlands. Soils in reference wetlands had clay loam textures with high silt content, while sandy clay loam textures predominated in the created sites. Vegetation species richness and total cover were both greater in natural reference wetlands. Vegetation in created wetlands included a greater proportion of upland species than found in the reference wetlands. There were significant differences in soils and vegetation characteristics between younger and older created wetlands, though we could not say older created sites were trending towards the reference wetland condition. Updated site selection practices, more careful consideration of monitoring period lengths, and, especially, a stronger effort to recreate wetland types native to the region should result in increased similarity between created and natural wetlands.     

Spatial Segregation of Congeneric Invaders in Central Pennsylvania, USA

Carduus acanthoides and Carduus nutans (plumeless and musk thistles) are among the most noxious weeds in the United States of America, presenting a serious challenge in cropping and pasture systems. Unfortunately, a lack of detailed spatial distribution information hampers both our ability to understand the factors affecting their invasive success, and the effectiveness of monitoring and management efforts. To examine patterns of distribution and co-occurrence at a local level, we sampled a 5000 km² area of central Pennsylvania that cut a transect across known areas of C. acanthoides and C. nutans infestation. A number of potential environmental explanatory variables were recorded and analyzed to examine whether they correlated with observed species distribution patterns. Patterns of forest density and spatial aggregation of the thistles were the primary covariates that significantly impacted both species’ distributions. The survey established that the frequency of sightings for each species diminished as the ranges converged, with only brief overlap: the two species are strongly negatively correlated in space. Understanding environmental correlates of infestation and the pattern of spatial dissociation of these two invasive species is an important step towards an improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying their invasive potential, and hence towards effective weed control.     

Metabolic patch dynamics in small headwater streams: exploring spatial and temporal variability in benthic processes

1. To gain a better understanding of the heterotrophic nature of small headwater streams in forested landscapes we explored the spatial and temporal variability of in‐stream organic matter processes. Three methods were used to measure the benthic metabolism of different in‐stream habitats in seven streams throughout a calendar year. This allowed us to analyse the contribution of various metabolic habitats (i.e. sediment, leaf litter, cobbles) to in‐stream metabolism during a natural flow regime. Furthermore, it allowed us to define in‐stream patchiness based on functional rather than structural elements. 2. Bacterial growth, measured using a leucine assay, displayed a quadratic relationship over time with a peak in warmer months and consistently higher bacterial growth in fine depositional (3.00–710.64 mg C m^?2 day^?1) than coarse gravel (38.84–582.85 mg C m^?2 day^?1) sediments. 3. Community metabolism, measured using dissolved oxygen chambers, showed distinct diel patterns and consistently greater net daily metabolism in leaf packs (?261.76 to ?24.50 mg C m^?2 day^?1) than fine depositional sediments (?155.00 to ?15.56 mg C m^?2 day^?1). Coarse gravel sediments (?49.55 to ?16.88 mg C m^?2 day^?1) and cobble habitats (?151.98 to 55.38 mg C m^?2 day^?1) exhibited the lowest metabolic rates. Modelled whole‐stream metabolism was highly variable among streams and temporal patterns appeared driven by temperature and the relative contribution of patch configuration as a function of flow. 4. Cellulose decomposition potential showed higher rates of microbial activity in fine depositional compared to coarse gravel sediments (30.5 and 29.1 kg average cotton tensile strength loss respectively), though there were higher rates of thread loss indicative of macroinvertebrate activity in gravel compared to depositional sediment (21% and 13% average thread loss respectively), with a slight quadratic trend. The high variability among habitats, streams and over time in this integrative measure may be explained by variability in local microbial activity as well as the potential for macroinvertebrates to contribute across patches. 5. There were strong relationships among benthic processes and habitat structure, nutrient status, stream temperature and flow. Different habitats had distinct metabolic characteristics and these characteristics appear to influence stream food webs and biogeochemical cycling depending on the relative abundance of habitats. Generally, within habitat variability was less than among habitat variability and among stream variability was less than temporal variability. Hence, in terms of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of benthic processes, these small headwater streams showed predictable metabolic patterns. However, there were few correlations between differing measures of benthic metabolism at the same patch and this suggests that caution should be taken when attempting to infer the rates of one level of metabolic activity (e.g. whole community metabolism) based on another (e.g. bacterial productivity).     

Amphibian Body Impressions from the Mississippian of Pennsylvania,USA

Temnocorpichnus isaacleai is a new ichnogenus and ichnospecies of temnospondyl amphibian body impression from the Mississippian (Visean) Mauch Chunk Formation of eastern Pennsylvania, United States. The shovel-shaped head, robust limbs, relatively short trunk and smooth integument diagnose the ichnotaxon and readily distinguish it from Hermundurichnus and Sauropleura, the only other named body impressions of Paleozoic tetrapods. Temnocorpichnus is a compound ichnogenus in which the footprint ichnogenus Batrachichnus is a behaviorally distinct component. The temnospondyl identity of Temnocorpichnus adds to the sparse and earliest records of temnspondyls, which are of Visean age. The smooth integument of the ichnogenus does not support the presence of ventral scales or armor in the earliest temnospondyls, but body proportions of the Mauch Chunk body impressions indicate a relatively terrestrial temnospondyl not matched by any taxon now known from bones. Three closely associated impressions of Temnocorpichnus on a single bedding plane suggest some sort of gregarious behavior in Mississippian temnospondyls and may support speculation that internal fertilization and associated courtship behavior evolved independently in one group of amphibians more than 300 million years ago.     

1960-2010年广西红树林空间分布演变机制

为全面摸清1960—2010年广西红树林空间分布及其演变机制,采用多源遥感数据提取不同年度的红树林空间分布信息,分析了广西红树林空间分布动态特点,采用基于斑块的红树林空间演变机理分析方法,研究了1960/1976—2010年广西红树林空间演变机制。结果表明:1960/1976年、1990s年、2001年、2007年和2010年广西红树林斑块数量分别为1020、829、1094、1718个和1712个,面积分别为9062.5、7430.1、7015.4、6743.2、7054.3 hm2,近50年间红树林面积减少了22.16%,年均减少0.53%,斑块数量增加了67.8%;斑块平均面积由1960/1976年的8.9 hm2减小至2010年的4.1 hm2,大斑块数量显著减少,斑块破碎化严重;不同时期、不同区域和海湾,红树林面积和斑块数量的变化量、变化速率均不同;1960/1976年的斑块中,只有24个斑块至2010年时尚保持稳定,占2.4%,绝大部分斑块都发生了某种程度的变化。进一步分析结果表明:1960/1976—2010年,斑块消失(46.1%)、碎化(40.4%)、萎缩(13.5%)是面积减少的主要途径,新增(70.0%)和碎化(29.9%)是斑块数量增加的主要途径,但在不同时期,斑块数量和面积在各个途径上发生的变化量不尽相同;养殖塘和盐田建设(80.0%)、工程建设(10.9%)和围垦(9.1%)是面积净减少的驱动因子,自然过程(92.6%)和人工造林(7.4%)是斑块数量净增加的驱动因子,不同驱动因子在不同时期对斑块数量和面积变化的影响程度不同;斑块数量变化主要由自然过程作用下通过新增(39.6%)、消失(-9.1%)两个途径,以及养殖塘和盐田作用下通过消失(-15.3%)、碎化(14.5%)两个途径发生,斑块面积变化主要由自然过程影响下通过新增(17.5%)、扩张(12.6%)、消失(-6.1%),以及养殖塘和盐田建设驱动下通过斑块消失(-14.8%)、碎化(-13.9%)、萎缩(-6.6%)3个途径发生。     

Antibodies to influenza A virus in wild birds across Mongolia, 2006-2009

Wild waterbirds sampled July 2006-September 2009 in Mongolia were tested for antibodies to avian influenza (AI) virus with the use of a commercially available blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibodies were detected in 25% (572/2,282) of tested birds representing 26 species, and all antibody-positive samples were from 12 species in the orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes. The highest antibody prevalence was in Ruddy Shelducks (Tadorna ferruginea; 61.7%; n=261; 95% confidence interval [CI] 55.8-67.6%), Whooper Swans (Cygnus cygnus; 38.4%; n=242; 95% CI 32.3-44.5%), Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides; 15%; n=127; 95% CI 8.6-21.4%), Bar-headed Geese (Anser indicus; 13%; n=738; 95% CI 10.3-15.1%), and Mongolian Gulls (Larus mongolicus; 3.9%; n=255; 95% CI 1.3-6.5%). There was no significant temporal or spatial variation in the presence of antibodies in the sampled species. However, Bar-headed Geese and Mongolian Gulls showed spatial variation in antibody prevalence in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Our study provides insights into the hatch year waterbirds' exposure to AI virus at their natal and molting sites in Mongolia.     

Water quality during winter storm events in Spring Creek,Pennsylvania USA

This study examined the relationship between land cover and three solute (chloride, total organic carbon (TOC), and lead) concentrations during winter rainstorms in 10 subbasins of Spring Creek, Pennsylvania, USA at two spatial scales. Despite similar percent land cover at both scales, correlations between water quality and land cover were stronger at the subbasin scale than at the riparian scale. As basin percent urban land cover increased, mean chloride and lead concentrations increased. Chloride and lead were likely to be a result of roadside sediments and residential housing, as demonstrated by a strong positive relationship between road density and chloride concentration at both spatial scales (r = 0.83, 0.71). Basin percent forested cover at the subbasin scale was weakly positively related to TOC concentrations, suggesting leaf litter as a source. Changes in flow rate related to changes in concentrations of solutes for representative urban and rural subbasins. TOC and lead showed weak positive relationships (flushing effect), while chloride exhibited a strong negative relationship (dilution effect). These different responses to changes in flow rate implied different sources of solutes – soils for TOC and lead and groundwater for chloride. This study underscores some negative effects of increased basin urbanization on stream water quality and potential aquatic ecosystems in small streams during storm events.     

Second International Conference on Accelerating Biopharmaceutical Development: March 9-12, 2009, Coronado,CA USA

The second International Conference on Accelerating Biopharmaceutical Development was held in San Diego, California. The meeting was organized by the Society for Biological Engineering (SBE) and the American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE); SBE is a technological community of the AIChE. Bob Adamson (Wyeth) and Chuck Goochee (Centocor) were co-chairs of the event, which had the theme “Delivering cost-effective, robust processes and methods quickly and efficiently.” The first day focused on emerging disruptive technologies and cutting-edge analytical techniques. Day two featured presentations on accelerated cell culture process development, critical quality attributes, specifications and comparability, and high throughput protein formulation development. The final day was dedicated to discussion of technology options and new analysis methods provided by emerging disruptive technologies; functional interaction, integration and synergy in platform development; and rapid and economic purification process development.     

Local climate mediates spatial and temporal variation in carabid beetle communities in three forests in Mount Odaesan,Korea

1. Global environmental change can dramatically alter the composition of floral and faunal communities, and elucidating the mechanisms underlying this process is important for predicting its outcomes. Studies on global climate change have mostly focused on statistical summaries within wide spatial and temporal scales; less attention has been paid to variability in microclimates at narrower spatial and temporal scales. 2. The microclimate is the suite of climatic conditions measured in a local area. Environmental variables at the microclimatic scale can be critical for the ecology of organisms inhabiting each area. The effect of spatial and temporal changes in the microclimate on the ecology of carabid beetle communities in three sites on Mount Odaesan, Korea was examined. 3. Carabid beetle communities and quantified site‐specific environmental factors from measurements of air temperature, air humidity, light intensity and soil temperature over 5 years (2010–2015) were surveyed. 4. It was found that microclimatic variables and the patterns of temporal changes in carabid beetle communities differed between the three sites within the single mountain system. Microclimatic variables influencing temporal changes in beetle communities also differed between the sites. Therefore, it is suggested that variation in local microclimates affects spatial and temporal variation in carabid beetle communities at a local scale. 5. The present results demonstrate the importance of regular surveys of communities at local scales. Such surveys are expected to reveal an additional fraction of variation in communities and underlying processes that have been overlooked in studies of global community patterns and change.     

Qualitative and quantitative study of wound healing processes in the coelenterate, Plexaurella fusifera: spatial, temporal, and environmental (light attenuation) influences

Following injury, the Caribbean soft coral, Plexaurella fusifera, forms an epithelial front containing amoebocytes and zooxanthellae, a photosynthetic endosymbiont. Amoebocytes may be responsible for extruding the connective mesogleal fibers necessary for regeneration of tissue and zooxanthellae may provide the energy for repair. This study examined the effects of time, space, and environment (light attenuation) on wound healing in this coral species and quantitatively confirmed the increase of amoebocyte concentrations in the injured area. A wound was made on coral branchlets by removing approximately 4.5 mm of coenenchyme. At assigned times after injury, samples were collected for gross morphological and histological evaluation, in which amoebocytes and zooxanthellae concentrations were quantified within 0.009 mm3 of tissue. Overall amoebocyte numbers within uninjured and wounded tissue were similar. However, when numbers of amoebocytes per area of injured tissue were calculated and compared to those of uninjured tissue, 82.4% more amoebocytes occurred at distances 0-0.5 mm from the wound edge, while areas of tissue >2 mm from the wound edge were occupied by fewer amoebocytes. Overall increases in concentrations of zooxanthellae also occurred within wounded coral, but no apparent temporal, spatial, or light-related pattern was detected. Therefore, this study supports the conjecture that amoebocyte accumulation at a wound site is an effect of cells migrating from uninjured tissue adjacent to the wounded edge. In addition, this movement occurs regardless of light attenuation. Light, which in this study was confined to ranges between 70 and 545 microE s-1 m-2, did not significantly affect the wound healing process in regard to either closure or cellular concentrations.     

Patch type influences on regeneration in a western Pennsylvania, USA, catastrophic windthrow

We investigated the influence of differing patch types on the germination, growth, and survival of two species of tree seedlings in a catastrophic, old‐growth forest windthrow. We documented environmental conditions, and experimentally introduced seeds, transplanted seedlings, and manipulated litter and herbivore access to determine the effects of patch types during initial forest regrowth.
Among patch types defined by substrate condition and exposure, we found significant differential influence of patch type on germination of seeds of a common colonizer, Betulaalleghaniensis. Patch types that provided exposed mineral soil allowed greater germination than other patch types, regardless of light availability. Germination of Acerrubrum varied among patch types in a fashion similar to that of B. alleghaniensis, although differences among patch types were not significant.
Litter can also be the basis of patch classification. Both type and amount of litter significantly influenced emergence of seedlings, with broad‐leaf litter (in amounts typical of intact forest) producing greater inhibition of emergence than amounts of conifer needles typical of intact forest. Survival and performance of fenced and unfenced Acerrubrum seedlings transplanted into different patch types reflected influences of both herbivory and competition with existing vegetation.
Survival was lowest where the Acer seedlings were most apparent to mammalian herbivores. Growth of Acer seedlings was greater when they were protected from herbivory and free of competition from surrounding vegetation.
These findings demonstrate that patch types offer different suitability as regeneration microsites during early tree life history stages. Because these patch types are common and easy to recognize, the differences in species’ responses may be sufficiently general to apply in other disturbances of this type. If general species responses to patch types can be combined with knowledge of propagule abundance and patch abundance, it could provide a basis for improved understanding of post‐disturbance regeneration, via patch influences.     

Matching the forecast horizon with the relevant spatial and temporal processes and data sources

Most phenomenological, statistical models used to generate ecological forecasts take either a time-series approach, based on long-term data from one location, or a space-for-time approach, based on data describing spatial patterns across environmental gradients. However, the magnitude and even the sign of environment–response relationships detected using these two approaches often differs, leading to contrasting predictions about responses to future environmental change. Here we consider how the forecast horizon determines whether more accurate predictions come from the time-series approach, the space-for-time approach or a combination of the two. As proof of concept, we use simulated case studies to show that forecasts for short and long forecast horizons need to focus on different ecological processes, which are reflected in different kinds of data. First, we simulated population or community dynamics under stationary temperature using two simple, mechanistic models. Second, we fit statistical models to the simulated data using a time-series approach, a space-for-time approach or a weighted average. We then forecast the response to a temperature increase using the statistical models, and compared these forecasts to temperature effects simulated by the mechanistic models. We found that the time-series approach made accurate short-term predictions because it captured initial conditions and effects of fast processes such as birth and death. The space-for-time approach made more accurate long-term predictions because it better captured the influence of slower processes such as evolutionary and ecological selection. The weighted average made accurate predictions at all time scales, including intermediate time-scales where the other two approaches performed poorly. A weighted average of time-series and space-for-time approaches shows promise, but making this weighted model operational will require new research to predict the rate at which slow processes begin to influence dynamics.     

Tick tubes reduce blacklegged tick burdens on white-footed mice in Pennsylvania,USA

Lyme disease cases are increasing in the United States. The vector of the pathogen that causes Lyme disease is the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say) (Acari:Ixodidae). While there are several tick control options, many are expensive or involve large-scale or ecological interventions such as landscape acaricide spraying or wildlife baiting. Tick control tubes, cardboard tubes with acaricide-treated cotton that can be used as nesting material by tick hosts, offer an alternative to more invasive tick control by treating tick hosts with an acaricide. In this study, tick tubes with cotton treated with two formulations of acaricide and water as a control were evaluated for wildlife use and for tick burden reductions on Peromyscus spp. an important reservoir host for the Lyme disease pathogen. Tick tubes were deployed for four weeks. Ticks parasitizing Peromyscus spp. and cotton use by wildlife were evaluated pre-deployment and post-deployment. Cotton from both treatments was used similarly, and permethrin-treated cotton was used more frequently than the control. In addition, I. scapularis were eliminated from hosts captured in treatment plots post-tick tube deployment. Tick tubes show promise as a tool for tick control on Peromyscus spp., especially as part of an integrated pest management plan.