Factors affecting changes in grey partridge population dynamics in a French arable farmland over an eleven-year period

The grey partridge Perdix perdix is of conservation concern owing to habitat heterogeneity losses and the negative impact of other environmental factors, e.g., pesticide use, predators, weather or shooting pressure, which are known to be associated with population decline. By an 11-year-period study in an intensively cultivated farmland located in the Paris basin, we aimed to relate the changes in grey partridge population dynamics with the changes in agriculture, monthly rainfall and shooting pressure. Summer drought occurred at the middle time of the study period. At the start of our study, a new cultivation, winter-wheat broadcast in maize-stubble fields, was introduced that probably improved the habitat. But in the next years, there was a loss in habitat diversity due to the disappearance of pastures dedicated to sheep rearing, removal of non-cropped areas and field boundaries and increase in the mean field size. Shooting was annually adjusted to what the owner believed to be a wise harvest. In post-breeding coveys, both percentages of hens with young among total hens and young-to-successful hens ratios first increased and then decreased. The mean brood size was rather weak during the dryness incident. The number of pairs in a more heterogeneous sector was always greater than in a less one. In both sectors, spring abundance first increased and then decreased. In the second half of the study period, the shooting quotas were reduced, especially when the mean brood size fell down. Low hatching rates of clutches and low chick survival rates explain the population decline, as the results are convincing. To stop the population decline in intensive arable farmland, good breeding success is needed. This can be provided by favourable habitats for hens to nest and for chicks to feed.     

Population declines and reproductive performance of Skylarks Alauda arvensis in different regions and habitats of the United Kingdom

Declines in the number of breeding Skylarks Alauda aruensis and changes in their reproductive performance were analysed using data from two long-running surveys co-ordinated by the British Trust for Ornithology: the Common Birds Census and the Nest Record Scheme. In the UK, the number of breeding Skylarks declined by approximately 55% between 1975 and 1994. This decline was steepest in agricultural habitats and in regions associated with intensive agriculture. In contrast, Skylark reproductive performance per nest, in terms of clutch size, brood size and post-hatching survival rate of nests, showed a general improvement over time. This improvement was greatest in intensively farmed agricultural habitats. Therefore changes in reproductive performance per nesting attempt were probably not responsible for the decline in numbers. It is inferred that possible causes of the decline of the Skylark are: reductions in the number of breeding attempts per pair per season, reductions in the proportion of birds attempting to breed, and increased mortality outside the breeding season.     

Foot-trembling and feeding behaviour in the Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula

The Merlin population in Orkney has undergone a marked decline during the 1980s. Site occupancy fell from 42% to 14% between 1981 and 86, while mean breeding success fell from 48% during 1975–81 to 29% during 1982–86. Mean brood size of successful nests declined from 3.3 during 1975–80 to 2.5 during 1981–87. Most breeding failures occurred during incubation. Loss and degradation of habitat, disturbance, weather, predation, organo-chlorine contamination and mercury contamination were examined as possible causes.     

Inter‐annual variability and long‐term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans

Population declines among migratory Arctic‐breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In this study we examined inter‐annual variation and long‐term trends in two aspects of the breeding success of a migratory herbivore, the Bewick's swan Cygnus columbianus bewickii, which is currently undergoing a population decline: 1) the percentage of young within the wintering population and 2) mean brood size. We used an information‐theoretic approach to test how these two measures of productivity were influenced over a 26 yr period by 12 potential explanatory variables, encompassing both environmental (e.g. temperature) and intrinsic (e.g. pair‐bond duration) factors. Swan productivity exhibited sensitivity to both types of explanatory variable. Fewer young were observed on the wintering grounds in years in which the breeding period (May to September) was colder and predator (Arctic fox) abundance was higher. The percentage of young within the wintering population also showed negative density‐dependence. Inter‐annual variance in mean swan brood size was best explained by a model comprised of the negative degree days during the swan breeding period, mean pair‐bond duration of all paired swans (i.e. mean pair duration), and an interaction between these two variables. In particular, mean pair duration had a strong positive effect on mean brood size. However, we found no long‐term directional trend in either measure of breeding success, despite the recent decline in the NW European population. Our results highlight that inter‐annual variability in breeding success is sensitive to the combined effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors.     

Heterogeneous landscapes and the role of refuge on the population dynamics of a specialist predator and its prey

How, and where, a prey species survives predation by a specialist predator during low phases of population fluctuations or a cycle, and how the increase phase of prey population is initiated, are much-debated questions in population and theoretical ecology. The persistence of the prey species could be due mainly to habitats that act as refuges from predation and/or due to anti-predatory behaviour of individuals. We present models for the former conjecture in two (and three) habitat systems with a specialist predator and its favoured prey. The model is based on dispersal of prey between habitats with high reproductive output but high risk of predation, and less productive habitats with relatively low risk of predation. We illustrate the predictions of our model using parameters from one of the most intriguing vertebrate predator–prey systems, the multi-annual population cycles of boreal voles and their predators. We suggest that cyclic population dynamics could result from a sequence of extinction and re–colonization events. Field voles (Microtus agrestis), a key vole species in the system, can be hunted to extinction in their preferred meadow habitat, but persist in sub-optimal wet habitats where their main predator, the least weasel (Mustela nivalis nivalis) has a low hunting efficiency. Re–colonization of favourable habitats would occur after the predator population crashes. At the local scale, the model suggests that the periodicity and amplitude of population cycles can be strongly influenced by the relative availability of risky and safe habitats for the prey. Furthermore, factors like intra-guild predation may lead to reduced predation pressure on field voles in sub-optimal habitats, which would act as a refuge for voles during the low phase of their population cycles. Elasticity analysis suggested that our model is quite robust to changes in most parameters but sensitive to changes in the population dynamics of field voles in the optimal grassland habitat, and to the maximum predation rate of weasels.     

Ants Response to Human-Induced Disturbance in a Rain Tropical Forest

A high rate of human-induced disturbance of tropical ecosystems results in enormous loss of biodiversity due to local extinctions. Yet, mechanisms at the population level that lead to the extinction are still poorly understood. Here we tested the hypothesis that human-induced disturbance results in smaller amount of nesting sites for wood-dwelling arthropods that leads to smaller population size and diminished reproduction, and therefore, may promote local extinctions. We completed censuses in less-disturbed and human-disturbed secondary rain forest plots in Puerto Rico. We measured population size and brood production in wood-nesting ants and examined whether these parameters differ between less-disturbed and more-disturbed habitats. In addition, we measured volume of wood parts of all inhabited and potential nesting sites to assess nest site availability. We found that more human-disturbed forests furnish smaller nest sites, resulting in diminished population size and lowered brood production. Our study shows that human-induced disturbance decreases volume of available nesting sites that leads to decreased population size and lowered reproduction. Thus, in addition to the well-documented loss of species richness in human-disturbed tropical habitats, we demonstrated the direct effect of the disturbance that may promote vulnerability of local populations.     

Intraspecific brood parasitism: a strategy for floating females in the European starling

In many bird species, there is a floating population of females that are excluded from breeding because of competition for limited breeding resources. Female floaters may enhance their reproductive success by engaging in intraspecific brood parasitism. We studied female floaters in a population of European starlings, Sturnus vulgaris, in order to determine their identity and potential parasitic behaviour. Females were caught after being attracted to nestboxes with artificial nests during 1993-1995. None of the females was known to have a nest of her own at capture but 47% of the females either laid an egg in the nest or carried a fully developed egg within the reproductive tract, indicating that they were intraspecific brood parasites. The floating females were significantly younger and smaller than breeding females. Of 13 females equipped with radiotransmitters and followed daily, all but one started a breeding attempt of their own after 3-8 days and the majority settled as secondary females or mated with males where the original female had disappeared. This suggests that females that are unable to compete successfully for nest sites or males early in the breeding season may use intraspecific brood parasitism to enhance reproductive success during the period that they are constrained from breeding. The importance of settling rapidly because of a seasonal decline in reproductive success may also promote the evolution of intraspecific brood parasitism in the starling. The relative reproductive success of combining egg dumping with breeding compared with traditional breeding will depend on the costs of delaying breeding as well as the probability of finding a mate later in the breeding season. Copyright 1999 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.     

The adaptive significance of brood size and time of breeding in the dipper Cinclus cinclus (Aves: Passeriformes) as seen from post-fledging survival

We assessed the post-fledging survival of dippers Cinclus cinclus from 743 broods in relation to brood size, time of hatching and territory quality. We paid particular attention to assessing whether contrasting breeding performance along unproductive (i.e. acidic) and productive (i.e. circumneutral) rivers represented strategies which optimized the number of surviving young.
For all brood sizes, post-fledging survival varied significantly through the breeding season, with most survivors coming from attempts in the peak period of hatching. After correcting for these seasonal effects, the most common brood size overall, of four, was also the most productive as seen from post-fledging survival; differences in the frequency of occurrence and survival between broods of four and five were marginal. Moreover, a change in the modal brood size from five to four occurred as the season progressed. consistent with a shift in brood productivity.
Broods at acidic sites were significantly smaller than at circumneutral sites; while brood size four was the most productive at both types of site, brood size three was the second most productive at acidic sites, while brood size five was the second most productive at circumneutral sites. Dippers at acidic sites bred significantly later than at circumneutral sites, but post-fledging survival declined most rapidly through the season at the former.
These survival data provide evidence from both seasonal and spatial patterns that brood sizes in the dipper may be optimized in ways consistent with the enhancement of productivity. By contrast, delayed breeding at acidic sites contrasted with the patterns expected from optimization, instead reflecting resource scarcity.     

Patterns of Orthoptera abundance and lesser kestrel conservation in arable landscapes

The lesser kestrel Falco naumanni experienced a marked decline during the second half of the 20th century due to changes in land use that influenced breeding success by reducing the abundance and quality of prey. However, the factors governing spatial and temporal variation of prey abundance around lesser kestrel colonies has not yet been investigated. We sampled Orthoptera abundance in the main crop types and edge habitats surrounding six lesser kestrel colonies in southern Spain. Samplings focused on Orthoptera because they constitute the main prey during the nestling period. Only those Orthoptera species that are known to be preyed by lesser kestrels were considered in this study. We found differences in prey density among localities, and crop types. Semi-natural habitats such as grasslands, fallow land, and field margins held the highest densities. However, prey abundance showed a complex pattern that was not possible to explain solely on the basis of crop composition around colonies. Factors determining productivity in individual fields like soil type and productivity or biocide input, and mean size of agricultural fields contributed to explain this complex pattern of prey abundance. Our results highlight the key role of semi-natural and edge habitats in farmed landscapes as prey reservoirs and corridors. Higher conservation priorities for these habitats are suggested to benefit foraging lesser kestrels, but many other farmland species that also experienced steep population declines due to decreasing food supply resulting from modern agriculture.     

Source-sink dynamics within a plant population: the impact of substrate and herbivory on palm demography

Site factors have frequently been shown to affect survival, growth, and reproduction in plant populations. The source-sink concept proposed by Pulliam is one way of integrating this spatial demographic variation into population models. Source-sink models describe a population where propagules from “source” habitats sustain less productive “sink” areas. We adapted this concept to model the population dynamics of the understory palm Chamaedorea radicalis on two substrates, rock outcrops and forest floor. In our model, sources and sinks correspond to fine-scale demographic structure within the population, rather than spatially discrete subpopulations as described in the Pulliam model. We constructed a stage-structured population matrix model that integrates the site-specific demography of individuals across two habitats types that are linked by migration. We then parameterized this model with field data from C. radicalis. To address whether observed differences in palm demography between rock outcrops and the forest floor were due to natural variation between microsites or due to differences in browsing intensity from free range livestock, we parameterized separate models based on the substrate-specific demography of protected, non-browsed palms and of palms exposed to burro browse. Results showed that herbivory reduced survival and fecundity on the forest floor, which in the absence of seed migration resulted in a projected decline of forest floor palms (sinks). However with seed dispersal, palms persisted and total population growth (both substrates) was projected to be positive, indicating that seed dispersal from non-browsed palms on rock outcrops (sources) was sufficient to sustain C. radicalis on the forest floor.     

Age and breeding success of a Golden Eagle Aquila chrysaetos population in southeastern Spain

Brood production rate of Grey Partridges Perdix perdix was studied in three areas in Poland in the years 1986–90, by comparing the number of pairs and the number of family coveys after the breeding period. In the study areas, linear permanent nesting cover was mapped and measured. In these areas the brood production rate declined with increasing spring pair density. A positive effect of the occurrence of nesting cover on brood production rate was found. An increase in the population density mostly occurred through occupying parts of the study area avoided earlier, thus presumably less suitable for Partridges. Pairs occupying these less suitable areas, characterized by less abundant nesting cover, had a lower brood production rate, whereas in the preferred areas this rate did not decline with increasing mean population density.     

Status and population trends of Starling Sturnus vulgaris in Great Britain

Capsule Starling populations have declined markedly since 1964, with the greatest declines in pastoral areas in the south and west of Britain.

Aims To establish the size of the Starling population and its recent decline in different habitats and regions.

Methods We use distance-based transect sampling to establish, for the first time, robust estimates of population size in different habitats and regions. We then analyse long-term trend data from two extensive monitoring schemes using generalized additive models to find correlates of the population decline.

Results The mean national breeding population of Starling over the period 1994–2000 was estimated at about 8.5 million birds, with a 95% confidence interval of 8.1–10.8 million. Most Starlings (36%) occur in southern Britain and densities are greatest in suburban habitats. Populations in both suburban areas and the wider countryside declined by over 50% between 1964 and 2000, being greatest in the south and west of Britain and in areas of livestock farming.

Conclusions Changes in pastoral farming practices are likely to account for at least some of the decline in the wider countryside, probably related to changes in food resources, though these are largely unquantified.     

A unimodal curve for primate group size along a gradient of population density

When plotted along a gradient of population density, the mean group size in populations of several primate species has a unimodal distribution, i.e., mean group size is greater at intermediate population densities than at higher or lower population densities. In this study I present a mathematical model to clarify the cause of this relationship. Population density is assumed to affect group size by enhancing between- or within-group competition and by changing the number of neighboring groups around each group. The mean group size is predicted to decline as population density increases above a critical value, owing to the increasing number of neighboring groups.     

Is the large‐scale decline of the starling related to local changes in demography?

The decline of one farmland bird, the migratory European starling, has been attributed to both agricultural intensification and farmland abandonment and to factors operating both during the winter and during the breeding season. We analysed population data from thirty‐three Swedish nestbox colonies over more than two decades to determine if the national decline was caused by a common factor affecting all colonies or by local changes in the breeding grounds affecting starling colonies. We found that numbers of breeding starling had declined significantly, but at different rates in different colonies. The local population sizes were affected by previous years’ productivity at both national and local scales, suggesting that changes in habitat quality at both scales could affect local population trends. There were no long‐term trends in reproductive output, but fledgling production was lowest at intermediate years. The local population changes were positively related to local changes in reproductive output, but only when including complete nest‐failures. A relationship between population declines and low mean local productivity was the result of the association between population sizes and reproductive success over time, since decline rates of starlings were not related to the average success during the first part of the study, but to the average success during the later part of the study. The relationship between population change and changes in reproductive output was evident, but fledgling production showed negative density‐dependence. In conclusion this study suggests that the decline of the starling population in Sweden has been affected by processes at small spatial scales during the breeding season affecting reproductive success, but does not exclude an additional role for processes at large spatial scales or outside the breeding season.     

Climate change affects populations of northern birds in boreal protected areas

Human land-use effects on species populations are minimized in protected areas and population changes can thus be more directly linked with changes in climate. In this study, bird population changes in 96 protected areas in Finland were compared using quantitative bird census data, between two time slices, 1981-1999 and 2000-2009, with the mean time span being 14 years. Bird species were categorized by distribution pattern and migratory strategy. Our results showed that northern bird species had declined by 21 per cent and southern species increased by 29 per cent in boreal protected areas during the study period, alongside a clear rise (0.7-0.8 °C) in mean temperatures. Distribution pattern was the main factor, with migratory strategy interacting in explaining population changes in boreal birds. Migration strategy interacted with distribution pattern so that, among northern birds, densities of both migratory and resident species declined, whereas among southern birds they both increased. The observed decline of northern species and increase in southern species are in line with the predictions of range shifts of these species groups under a warming climate, and suggest that the population dynamics of birds are already changing in natural boreal habitats in association with changing climate.     

Organochlorines and mercury in the eggs of British Peregrines Falco peregrinus

The levels of various contaminants were measured in 550 addled and deserted Peregrine Falco peregrinus eggs obtained in Britain during 1963-86. In this period the population was recovering from a low level imposed by organochlorine pesticides. Over the whole period, HEOD levels declined in eggs from both inland and coastal regions, while DDE levels declined in eggs from inland regions. At the same time, shell-indices improved. PCB levels increased in eggs from inland regions. At any one time, levels of DDE and HEOD in eggs decreased and shell-indices increased from south to north within Britain. These gradients fitted with the extent of agricultural land (= pesticide use) and with the extent of Peregrine population decline (both greatest in the south). No south-north trend was apparent in levels of PCBs derived from industrial sources. In some regions eggs from coastal sites were more contaminated than eggs from inland sites, especially with PCBs and mercury. Significant relationships were found between brood sizes and DDE levels, between brood sizes and shell-indices, and between shell-indices and DDE levels. This implied that DDE influenced shell thickness and breeding success. Some evidence was obtained that mercury reduced brood sizes, but no evidence that HEOD and PCB (at the levels found) did so. Overall, DDE and mercury levels together accounted for 17% of the variance in brood sizes during 1963-86. On a regional basis, DDE had no obvious effect on mean productivity when the geometric mean DDE level in collected eggs was less than 3 p.p.m., and when mean shell-index was no more than 8% less than normal. At higher DDE levels, and lower shell-indices, productivity declined markedly. Recovery of regional populations was associated with geometric mean HEOD levels in eggs no greater than 0–7 p.p.m., DDE levels no greater than 15 p.p.m., shell indices no more than about 15–20% below normal, and a mean breeding success exceeding 0–6 young per territorial pair.     

Dynamics of an immune response in house sparrows Passer domesticus in relation to time of day, body condition and blood parasite infection

European starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) introduced to North America compete with native cavity-nesting birds for nest sites. I examined whether natural selection could favour a strategy of delayed nesting in a population of northern flickers ( Colaptes auratus ), a native woodpecker, to reduce overlap in breeding phenology with starling competitors. I developed a mathematical model based on reproductive parameters for a population of flickers from central British Columbia, Canada. On average, 7% of flicker nests each year were usurped by starlings; daily probabilities of takeover declined through the season but were relatively low (1–2%). Flickers laid between 3 and 13 eggs and there was a negative correlation between clutch size and date. The probability of renesting after nest failure also declined during the season, but renesting intervals (2–19 days) were not associated with female age, or stage of nest loss. The model suggested that costs of delaying reproduction would outweigh benefits of an early start except when the probability of nest usurpation is very high (>75%) early in the season and declines rapidly through the summer. Thus, early laying dates should be favoured especially in northern latitudes where breeding seasons are short.     

The role of natural habitats in agricultural systems for bird conservation: the case of the threatened Lesser Grey Shrike

Birds of agricultural systems are one of the most threatened groups of birds in Europe mainly due to their sharp population decline in recent decades. Habitat intensification resulting from more productive agricultural practices has been proposed as a major cause for these declines. However, especially in some regions such as Eastern European and Mediterranean countries, little is known about the ultimate factors linked to habitat intensification that drive population declines for different species. The Lesser Grey Shrike is a good study species for a better understanding of such processes since it is closely related to agricultural habitats in Europe and has suffered a strong decline in range and population size across the western half of the continent. In this study, we explored variations in breeding parameters of this shrike related to habitat composition and food supply at the territory level. We found that fledgling success of early breeders was related to the presence of natural (shrub lands) and semi-natural (fallows) habitats in the predominantly agricultural matrix that dominated breeding territories. Their influence on fledgling success appeared to be mediated by a higher arthropod availability on these habitats. Indeed, Lesser Grey Shrike showed a strong preference for these habitats as hunting locations. Our results highlight the importance of natural habitats in intensified agricultural land mosaics for the conservation of bird species. We suggest that management plans should pay special attention to the availability of habitats which serve as high quality food reservoirs and can potentially contribute to enhance the species population viability in an area. Finally, we discuss the possible link between agricultural intensification and Lesser Grey Shrike population declines in Western Europe.     

The demography of an increasing insular Eurasian Scops Owl (Otus scops) population in western France

Rapid population declines of many long-distance Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species are ongoing across Europe but the demographic drivers are often poorly understood, thereby limiting the development of appropriate conservation actions. Using long-term population monitoring (39 years), capture–mark–recapture data and a matrix model, we estimated demographic parameters and the effect of climate variables on adult survival, and modelled the dynamics of an increasing population of Eurasian Scops Owls Otus scops in a landscape with agricultural abandonment in western France. The observed mean annual population growth rate was 1.055 (from 68 to 523 territorial males between 1981 and 2019). Over the study period, clutch size and hatching success were stable, but fledging success and breeding success showed slight negative trends, probably due to density-dependence. Survival varied with age, with an increase during early life and evidence for rapid senescence from 4 years old. Adult survival remained stable and was positively linked to the amount of autumn rainfall in the Sahel and to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. Survival of younger age-classes made the largest contribution to the variance of the population growth rate, followed by clutch size, fledging success and survival of older birds. Such a long-term population increase in a landscape where intensive agriculture has decreased by 64.6% sheds some new light on the causes of the decline of European Scops Owl and other Afro-Palaearctic bird populations. We infer some of the possible causes of this large-scale decline, in particular food shortage, and discuss conservation measures that could be applicable to reverse this trend.     

Costs and benefits of parental care in eastern kingbirds

We manipulated brood sizes of eastern kingbirds (Tyrannus tyrannus)to measure the costs and benefits of parental care and to testwhether kingbirds showed evidence of individual optimizationof reproductive effort. We found that the number of feedingtrips (trips/h) increased and that per capita feeding rates(trips/nestling/h) declined as brood size increased. The declinein per capita feeding rates was mostly due to high feeding rateto broods of one: parents made roughly equal number of tripsto feed each nestling in broods of two to five. Nonetheless,nestling mass declined with brood size, probably because largebroods were fed more small prey. Nestling condition (mass adjustedfor structural size) differed only between broods of one andfive. After controlling for effects of brood size, feeding rateshad no supplementary influence on either nestling size or condition,but productivity and feeding rate were positively and significantlyrelated. Adult male condition did not vary with brood size,manipulated brood size, or total feeding rate, but declinedas the pair's per capita feeding rates increased. In addition,males that returned to breed were in better condition beforeleaving for migration than those that failed to return. Femalecondition tended to decline, and the probability of returningto breed dropped when broods were enlarged. However, femalecondition was independent of the probability of returning. Ourresults show that high feeding rates were costly, but that theycarried benefits (greater productivity). Some evidence for individualoptimization of reproductive effort existed: variability innestling and adult female condition were better explained bychanges in brood size than by the actual number of young inthe nest. However, most evidence supported the alternative thatincreased brood size was equally costly for all birds