Development of a framework to predict the effects of climate change on birds

Climate change is expected to alter biological phenomena across the world, including the numbers and distributions of species and the timing of significant events in their life cycles such as reproduction and migration. Understanding how species will respond to future climate change is essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Accordingly, in this research, we advanced the understanding of avian ecology by developing a framework for how climate change affects birds. In the first step, we evaluated the vulnerability of 537 species to climate change based on the distribution, physiology, phenology, biotic interactions, and protection status of the species in Iran. Then, we used MaxEnt models to predict the potential changes in the ranges of vulnerable species due to climate change in the next 70 years. In the third step, hotspots for birds under current and future conditions were identified using an ensemble forecasting framework and the potential changes in the hotspots in the next 70 years were predicted. Results of the climate vulnerability evaluation showed that around 40% of bird species in Iran are highly vulnerable. Our results showed that small parts of suitable habitats are currently located within protected areas. Moreover, the results showed that even smaller portions of suitable habitats will fall within protected areas in the future. The reduced coverage in the future will diminish the benefits of protected areas for the species and make the species more vulnerable to climate change. These results can be used by wildlife managers to identify areas with protection priority, and for prediction of corridors, core habitats, and new areas to establish protected areas in the future.     

Climate change may plunder the facultative top predator Yellow-throated Martin from the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

The mountain ecosystems are fragile because of topography and extreme climatic conditions. The Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is a biodiversity-rich ecosystem and highly vulnerable to climate change and anthropogenic activities among the mountains. In HKH, the climate change impacts on ecologically specialist species are already evident, but generalist species are not much studied. One such generalist species distributed throughout the HKH is Yellow-Throated Marten (YTM) (Martes flavigula Boddaert, 1785), a facultative predator that occupies the Southern flank of the HKH. The YTM is one of the least studied animals distributed up to 4510-m elevation. The HKH covers 61 terrestrial ecoregions and 304 Protected Areas (PAs). An ecologically successful facultative predator of the region is seriously threatened because of habitat loss and climate change. Hence, we used an ensemble model to map the distribution of suitable habitats and their representativeness in terms of ecoregions and PA coverage. The results indicated that by 2050, the distribution range might decline to 58.78% and 49.33% with reference to the current scenario under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The species may lose much of its range, mainly in the eastern part of the HKH landscape. Furthermore, the centroid of the distribution may also shift to the northwest, thereby abandoning many areas and occupying new refugia. The Upper Gangetic plains moist deciduous forests ecoregion possess the highest suitable habitats for the YTM, with a mean value of 0.744. At the same time, the existing PA network represents only 12.2% of its suitable habitat in HKH. Hence, for the long-term viability of the species, there is a need to enhance protection and improve habitat quality.     

Predicting the impact of climate change on Australia's most endangered snake, Hoplocephalus bungaroides

Aim  To predict how the bioclimatic envelope of the broad-headed snake (BHS) ( Hoplocephalus bungaroides ) may be redistributed under future climate warming scenarios.
Location  South-eastern New South Wales, Australia.
Methods  We used 159 independent locations for the species and 35 climatic variables to model the bioclimatic envelope for the BHS using two modelling approaches – B ioclim and M axent . Predictions were made under current climatic conditions and we also predicted the species distribution under low and high climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070.
Results  Broad-headed snakes currently encompass their entire bioclimatic envelope. Both modelling approaches predict that suitable climate space for BHS will be lost to varying degrees under both climate warming scenarios, and under the worst case, only 14% of known snake populations may persist.
Main conclusions  Areas of higher elevation within the current range will be most important for persistence of this species because they will remain relatively moist and cool even under climate change and will match the current climate envelope. Conservation efforts should focus on areas where suitable climate space may persist under climate warming scenarios. Long-term monitoring programs should be established both in these areas and where populations are predicted to become extirpated, so that we can accurately determine changes in the distribution of this species throughout its range.     

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as both suitable for rare native species and highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated with similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions.     

Medicinal plants in peril due to climate change in the Himalaya

Climate change is causing many irreversible changes in the Himalayan ecosystems. In this study, an attempt was made to understand the ecological response of medicinal plant species to changing climate conditions in the Sikkim Himalaya, a part of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) approach was used to analyze the potential habitat distribution of 163 medicinal plant species in current and future climates (2050, 2070). An attempt was also made to identify the most suitable areas for conservation and test the effectiveness of the existing Protected Area (PA) network in conserving medicinal plant species in current and future climate scenarios through the Habitat Suitability and Overlap Analyses. SDM analyses revealed that the majority of the medicinal plant species are found in the tropical and sub-tropical regions in the Sikkim Himalaya (300–2000 m) at present. In future climates, however, most of the species are likely to show an upward and northward shift in their distributions. Maximum species-rich regions are likely to shift by 200 m and 400 m in 2050 and 2070, respectively. A total of 13–16% of medicinal plant species currently found in the region are likely to lose their existing potential habitats by 2050 and 2070. The results highlight that species that are restricted to specific localities and have a narrow elevational distribution are the most vulnerable species and likely to go extinct due to climate change in the Himalaya. Habitat suitability analyses indicated that elevations ranging from 860 to 2937 m serve as highly suitable habitats for medicinal plant species in Sikkim Himalaya. Consequently, these areas can be focused for conservation actions in order to mitigate the effect of climate change. The results of Overlap Analysis indicated that out of 8 PAs in Sikkim Himalaya, only 5 PAs are effective in the conservation of medicinal plant species in current and future climates. The boundaries of existing PAs need to be expanded in order to accommodate the upward shifts in the spatial distribution of species, especially in the case of those PAs that are located in the lower elevations or tropical regions. This study provides a novel integrated framework for use of ecological informatics in assessing the species vulnerability to climate change and planning conservation priorities.     

Does dispersal capacity matter for freshwater biodiversity under climate change?

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Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi‐equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell‐based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10–20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.     

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.     

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.     

Solutions for ecosystem‐level protection of ocean systems under climate change

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta‐analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co‐mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem‐level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long‐term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate‐ready and ecosystem‐level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.     

Climate‐niche factor analysis: a spatial approach to quantifying species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change vulnerability assessments are an important tool for understanding the threat that climate change poses to species and populations, but do not generally yield insight into the spatial variation in vulnerability throughout a species’ habitat. We demonstrate how to adapt the method of ecological‐niche factor analysis (ENFA) to objectively quantify aspects of species sensitivity to climate change. We then expand ENFA to quantify aspects of exposure and vulnerability to climate change as well, using future projections of global climate models. This approach provides spatially‐explicit insight into geographic patterns of vulnerability, relies only on readily‐available spatial data, is suitable for a wide range of species and habitats, and invites comparison between different species. We apply our methods to a case study of two species of montane mammals, the American pika Ochotona princeps and the yellow‐bellied marmot Marmota flaviventris.     

Habitat change and the scale of habitat selection: shifting gradients used by coexisting Arctic rodents

The conservation and understanding of biodiversity requires development and testing of models that illustrate how climate change and other anthropogenic effects alter habitat and its selection at different spatial scales. Models of fitness along a habitat gradient illustrate the connection between fine‐scale variation in fitness and the selection of habitat as discontinuous patches in the landscape. According to these models, climate change can increase fitness values of static habitats, shift the fitness value of habitat patches along underlying gradients of habitat quality, or alter both fitness and habitat quality. It should be possible to differentiate amongst these scenarios by associating differences in the abundance and distribution of species with metrics of habitat that document the gradient while controlling for changes in density at larger scales of analysis. Comparisons of habitat selection by two species of lemmings, over an interval of 15 years, are consistent with the theory. The pattern of habitat selection at the scale of wet versus dry tundra habitats changed through time. The change in habitat selection was reflected by different, but nevertheless density‐dependent, patterns of association with the structure and composition of habitat. Abundant collared lemmings abandoned stations where altered habitat characteristics caused a shift to new locations along the wet‐to‐dry gradient. The confirmation of scale‐dependent theory provides new insights into how one might begin to forecast future habitat selection under different scenarios of climate and habitat change.     

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of three endemic Aloe species critically endangered in East Africa

Climate change has had a significant impact on natural ecosystems and endemic species around the world and substantial impacts are expected in the future. As a result, knowing how climate change affects endemic species can help in putting forward the necessary conservation efforts. The use of niche modeling to predict changes in species distributions under different climate change scenarios is becoming a hot topic in biological conservation. This study aimed to use the global circulation model (CMIP5) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for three critically endangered Aloe species endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in order to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 and 2070. We used two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to project the contraction of suitable habitats for Aloe ballyi Reynolds, A. classenii Reynolds, and A. penduliflora Baker. Precipitation, temperature and environmental variables (Potential evapotranspiration, land cover, soil sedimentary and solar radiation) have had a significant impact on the current distribution of all the three species. Although suitable habitat expansion and contraction are predicted for all the species, loss of original suitable habitat is expected to be extensive. Climate change is expected to devastate >44% and 34% of the original habitats of A. ballyi and A. classenii respectively. Based on our findings, we propose that areas predicted to contract due to climate change should be designated as key protection zones for Aloe species conservation.     

Movement,impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

Synthesis Prediction and management of species responses to climate change is an urgent but relatively young research field. Therefore, climate change ecology must by necessity borrow from other fields. Invasion ecology is particularly well‐suited to informing climate change ecology because both invasion ecology and climate change ecology address the trajectories of rapidly changing novel systems. Here we outline the broad range of active research questions in climate change ecology where research from invasion ecology can stimulate advances. We present ideas for how concepts, case‐studies and methodology from invasion ecology can be adapted to improve prediction and management of species responses to climate change. A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: 1) how will species distributions respond to climate change? 2) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? And 3) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait‐based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life‐history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g. spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of ‘when to intervene?‘ and ‘what to do?‘ which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.     

Why Do Species Co-Occur? A Test of Alternative Hypotheses Describing Abiotic Differences in Sympatry versus Allopatry Using Spadefoot Toads

Areas of co-occurrence between two species (sympatry) are often thought to arise in regions where abiotic conditions are conducive to both species and are therefore intermediate between regions where either species occurs alone (allopatry). Depending on historical factors or interactions between species, however, sympatry might not differ from allopatry, or, alternatively, sympatry might actually be more extreme in abiotic conditions relative to allopatry. Here, we evaluate these three hypothesized patterns for how sympatry compares to allopatry in abiotic conditions. We use two species of congeneric spadefoot toads, Spea multiplicata and S. bombifrons, as our study system. To test these hypotheses, we created ecological niche models (specifically using Maxent) for both species to create a map of the joint probability of occurrence of both species. Using the results of these models, we identified three types of locations: two where either species was predicted to occur alone (i.e., allopatry for S. multiplicata and allopatry for S. bombifrons) and one where both species were predicted to co-occur (i.e., sympatry). We then compared the abiotic environment between these three location types and found that sympatry was significantly hotter and drier than the allopatric regions. Thus, sympatry was not intermediate between the alternative allopatric sites. Instead, sympatry occurred at one extreme of the conditions occupied by both species. We hypothesize that biotic interactions in these extreme environments facilitate co-occurrence. Specifically, hybridization between S. bombifrons females and S. multiplicata males may facilitate co-occurrence by decreasing development time of tadpoles. Additionally, the presence of alternative food resources in more extreme conditions may preclude competitive exclusion of one species by the other. This work has implications for predicting how interacting species will respond to climate change, because species interactions may facilitate survival in extreme habitats.     

The future representativeness of Madagascar's protected area network in the face of climate change

With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.     

气候变化对黄腹角雉潜在栖息地的影响

气候变化直接影响物种赖以生存的栖息地环境条件,进而影响物种的分布、数量和存活率。基于优化后最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测气候变化下黄腹角雉(Tragopan caboti)过去、当前、未来时期的潜在栖息地格局。结果表明,降水量、温度、海拔是栖息地的主要影响因子。当前时期适宜栖息地面积较过去时期下降24.69%;未来2041—2060年间,共享社会经济路径(SSP)3-7.0与SSP5-8.5情景下黄腹角雉适宜栖息地面积较当前时期分别下降55.19%、58.10%。浙江、江西和福建是当前以及未来黄腹角雉核心适宜栖息地,适宜栖息地面积呈现下降的趋势,并往高纬度区域移动。     

Spatial scale affects bioclimate model projections of climate change impacts on mountain plants

Plant species have responded to recent increases in global temperatures by shifting their geographical ranges poleward and to higher altitudes. Bioclimate models project future range contractions of montane species as suitable climate space shifts uphill. The species–climate relationships underlying such models are calibrated using data at either ‘macro’ scales (coarse resolution, e.g. 50 km × 50 km, and large spatial extent) or ‘local’ scales (fine resolution, e.g. 50 m × 50 m, and small spatial extent), but the two approaches have not been compared. This study projected macro (European) and local models for vascular plants at a mountain range in Scotland, UK, under low (+1.7 °C) and high (+3.3 °C) climate change scenarios for the 2080s. Depending on scenario, the local models projected that seven or eight out of 10 focal montane species would lose all suitable climate space at the site. However, the European models projected such a loss for only one species. The cause of this divergence was investigated by cross‐scale comparisons of estimated temperatures at montane species' warm range edges. The results indicate that European models overestimated species' thermal tolerances because the input coarse resolution climate data were biased against the cold, high‐altitude habitats of montane plants. Although tests at other mountain ranges are required, these results indicate that recent large‐scale modelling studies may have overestimated montane species' ability to cope with increasing temperatures, thereby underestimating the potential impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the results suggest that montane species persistence in microclimatic refugia might not be as widespread as previously speculated.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

Do climate envelope models transfer? A manipulative test using dung beetle introductions

Climate envelope models (CEMs) are widely used to forecast future shifts in species ranges under climate change, but these models are rarely validated against independent data, and their fundamental assumption that climate limits species distributions is rarely tested. Here, we use the data on the introduction of five South African dung beetle species to Australia to test whether CEMs developed in the native range can predict distribution in the introduced range, where the confounding effects of dispersal limitation, resource limitation and the impact of natural enemies have been removed, leaving climate as the dominant constraint. For two of the five species, models developed in the native range predict distribution in the introduced range about as well as models developed in the introduced range where we know climate limits distribution. For the remaining three species, models developed in the native range perform poorly, implying that non-climatic factors limit the native distribution of these species and need to be accounted for in species distribution models. Quantifying relevant non-climatic factors and their likely interactions with climatic variables for forecasting range shifts under climate change remains a challenging task.