The future of ocean governance

Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: (1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; (2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and (3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) ‘Business as Usual’—a continuation of current trajectories and (b) ‘More Sustainable Future’—optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty.

     

城市可持续发展评价方法及其应用

城市是现代化建设的主要载体,是国家实施科教兴国和可持续发展战略的主要基地。城市将各种社会的、经济的、环境的、文化的因素与冲突融为一体,形成一类社会-经济-自然复合生态系统。如何实现城市的可持续发展,是当今世界研究的重要课题之一。城市可持续发展的评价指标和方法是衡量城市生态规划、建设、管理成效的主要依据。以山东济宁市为例,建立了济宁市可持续发展的指标体系,包括经济发展、生态建设、环境保护和社会进步4类45项指标。采用全排列多边形综合图示法评价城市在各个不同时段的建设成效。研究结果表明,济宁市可持续发展综合指数2004年为0.24,处于Ⅳ级水平,可持续发展能力较差;2006年达到0.45,处于Ⅲ级水平,可持续发展能力一般;2010年达到0.62,进入Ⅱ级水平,可持续发展能力较好;2020年达到0.84,进入I级水平,可持续发展能力优良。评价指标全面,方法直观明了,反映了整体大于或者小于部分之和的系统整合原理,评价结果符合实际,可为城市可持续发展提供参考。     

Development by Design in Colombia: Making Mitigation Decisions Consistent with Conservation Outcomes

Mitigation policy and regulatory frameworks are consistent in their strong support for the mitigation hierarchy of: (1) avoiding impacts, (2) minimizing impacts, and then (3) offsetting/compensating for residual impacts. While mitigation frameworks require developers to avoid, minimize and restore biodiversity on-site before considering an offset for residual impacts, there is a lack of quantitative guidance for this decision-making process. What are the criteria for requiring impacts be avoided altogether? Here we examine how conservation planning can guide the application of the mitigation hierarchy to address this issue. In support of the Colombian government''s aim to improve siting and mitigation practices for planned development, we examined five pilot projects in landscapes expected to experience significant increases in mining, petroleum and/or infrastructure development. By blending landscape-level conservation planning with application of the mitigation hierarchy, we can proactively identify where proposed development and conservation priorities would be in conflict and where impacts should be avoided. The approach we outline here has been adopted by the Colombian Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development to guide licensing decisions, avoid piecemeal licensing, and promote mitigation decisions that maintain landscape condition.     

Delivering impactful solutions for the bioeconomy

We are increasingly challenged to operate within our planetary boundaries, while delivering on United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2030 targets, and net-zero emissions by 2050. Failure to solve these challenges risks economic, social, political, climate, food, water, and fuel security. Therefore, new, scalable, and adoptable circular economy solutions are urgently required. The ability of plants to use light, capture CO₂, and drive complex biochemistry is pivotal to delivering these solutions. However, harnessing this capability efficiently also requires robust accompanying economic, financial, market, and strategic analytics. A framework for this is presented here in the Commercialization Tourbillon. It supports the delivery of emerging plant biotechnologies and bio-inspired light-driven industry solutions within the critical 2030–2050 timeframe, to achieve validated economic, social, and environmental benefits.     

Three research priorities for just and sustainable urban systems: Now is the time to refocus

Now is the time to refocus efforts in urban research and design. A changing climate and extreme weather events are presenting unique challenges to urban systems around the world. These challenges illuminate the social barriers that accompany disruptive events such as resource inequities and injustices. In this perspective, we provide three research priorities for just and sustainable urban systems that help to address these matters. The three research priorities are: (1) social equity and justice, (2) circularity, and (3) digital twins. Conceptual context and future research directions are provided for each. For social equity and justice, the future directions are mandatory equity analysis and inclusionary practices, understanding and reconciling historical injustices, and intentional integration with diverse community stakeholders. For circularity applications, they are better metrics for integration, more robust evaluation frameworks, and dynamic modeling at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Future directions for digital twins include developing principles to reduce complexity, integrating model and system components, and reducing barriers to data access. These research priorities are core to meeting several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (i.e., 1—No Poverty, 8—Decent Work and Economic Growth, 10—Reduced Inequalities, and 11—Sustainable Cities and Communities). Useful social and technical matters are discussed throughout, where we highlight the importance of prioritizing localized research efforts, provide guidance for community-engaged research and co-development practices, and explain how these priorities interact to align with the evolving field of industrial ecology.     

Sustainability Constraints as System Boundaries: An Approach to Making Life-Cycle Management Strategic

Sustainable management of materials and products requires continuous evaluation of numerous complex social, ecological, and economic factors. A number of tools and methods are emerging to support this. One of the most rigorous is life-cycle assessment (LCA). But LCAs often lack a sustainability perspective and bring about difficult trade-offs between specificity and depth, on the one hand, and comprehension and applicability, on the other. This article applies a framework for strategic sustainable development (often referred to as The Natural Step (TNS) framework) based on backcasting from basic principles for sustainability. The aim is to foster a new general approach to the management of materials and products, here termed "strategic life-cycle management". This includes informing the overall analysis with aspects that are relevant to a basic perspective on (1) sustainability, and (2) strategy to arrive at sustainability. The resulting overview is expected to help avoid costly assessments of flows and practices that are not critical from a sustainability and/or strategic perspective and to help identify strategic gaps in knowledge or potential problems that need further assessment. Early experience indicates that the approach can complement some existing tools and concepts by informing them from a sustainability perspective-for example, current product development and LCA tools.     

Working conditions in hydrogen production: A social life cycle assessment

Social impacts of novel technology can, parallel to environmental and economic consequences, influence its sustainability. By analyzing the case of hydrogen production by advanced alkaline water electrolysis (AEL) from a life cycle perspective, this paper illustrates the social implications of the manufacturing of the electrolyzer and hydrogen production when installed in Germany, Austria, and Spain. This paper complements previous environmental and economic assessments, which selected this set of countries based on their different structures in electricity production. The paper uses a mixed method design to analyze the social impact for the workers along the process chain. Appropriate indicators related to working conditions are selected on the basis of the UN Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The focus on workers is chosen as a first example to test the relatively new Product Social Impact Life Cycle Assessment (PSILCA) database version 2.0. The results of the quantitative assessment are then complemented and compared through an investigation of the underlying raw data and a qualitative literature analysis. Overall, advanced AEL is found to have least social impact along the German process chain, followed by the Spanish and the Austrian. All three process chains show impacts on global upstream processes. In order to reduce social impact and ultimately contribute to Sustainable Development, policymakers and industry need to work together to further improve certain aspects of working conditions in different locations, particularly within global upstream processes.     

可持续发展目标关系研究进展

《2030可持续发展议程》指出17项可持续发展目标之间存在着相互联系,并且是整体而不可分割的,但并未说明各项目标之间是如何相关联的,因此限制了可持续发展目标的落实。理清各项可持续发展目标之间的关系,是加快可持续发展目标落实、促进政策一致性实现的保障。由于我国目前关于此方面的报道非常有限,因此有必要对17项可持续发展目标之间关系的研究进展进行总结。为了较全面的了解研究背景,首先简要回顾了千年发展目标到可持续发展目标的转变过程;随后在综合分析已有文献内容的基础上,分别从"联结途径""相互作用程度""网络分析""可持续发展目标模型"以及"执行手段"等五个方面对已有研究进行了论述,并总结当前研究的不足与未来挑战;最后分析了当前研究对我国未来可持续发展目标落实的启示,主要包括:(1)明确我国各项可持续发展目标的关系,促进不同层级政府和管理部门间政策一致性的实现;(2)完善指标监测体系,消除数据缺口;(3)加快构建我国可持续发展目标模型。     

加速推进可持续发展目标,开启未来十年的行动和成就——联合国可持续发展目标峰会介评

联合国可持续发展目标峰会于2019年9月24、25号在纽约召开,各国政府的高层人员就加速推进2030年可持续发展议程进行了全面审议和讨论。目前就全球而言,因为致命冲突、气候危机、经济增长不平衡等原因,人类在推动实现可持续发展目标的道路上已经偏离了既定轨道。为此,大会通过了一项政治宣言,联合国成员国承诺在未来十年筹措资金,努力在2030年之前实现17项可持续发展目标（SDGs, Sustainable Development Goals）,并且不让任何人掉队。同时,多国政府和组织结合自身情况,提出了126项SDGs加速行动（SDG Acceleration Actions）。我国代表在峰会上发表演讲指出,中国政府将可持续发展作为基本国策,全面深入落实2030年可持续发展议程,中国目前在脱贫、医疗、教育等方面进展明显,有望提前实现多项可持续发展目标。     

基于可持续发展目标的资源型城市可持续发展评价技术及应用——以湖南省郴州市为例

资源型城市作为我国重要战略保障基地,面临较为突出的不可持续问题,定量化开展可持续发展水平监测评估是推动其绿色转型发展、激活再生动力的重要途径。基于联合国可持续发展目标体系(SDGs),结合行星边界理论,从资源型城市可持续发展特征出发,建立了由2个系统、4个支柱、12个领域和48项指标组成的资源型城市可持续发展评价指标体系。借鉴全球SDGs监测评估实践经验,考虑指标属性,综合确定各指标的阈值,并采用改进的离差标准化、障碍度分析及耦合协调度分析等方法建立综合评价技术体系。以拥有“有色金属之乡”称号的郴州市国家可持续发展议程创新示范区为评价对象,对其2005—2019年连续15年的可持续发展水平进行实证分析。结果表明：(1)郴州市可持续发展水平整体上呈现稳步上升趋势,得分由0.398上升到0.610。(2)4个支柱中,自然资源支柱的得分进步幅度最大,高达71.3%,说明郴州市已经逐步提高对资源利用效率的重视,同时意识到挖掘替代资源的重要性,资源保障与利用能力不断提升;而发展动力支柱得分始终处于较弱或中等水平,已成为制约郴州市可持续发展和绿色转型的主要因素,其中科技创新驱动是该支柱发展关键障碍...     

城市建成区土地利用的环境影响评价——以南昌市主城区为例

基于土地利用环境影响的相关研究和城市土地利用特点,构建了城市建成区土地利用环境影响评价的概念模型,将建成区土地利用环境影响评价总结为细化、抽象、对应和评价4个基本过程,并以南昌市主城区为研究对象,分析了该区噪声、气味、粉尘和危险4个因素对环境的影响.结果表明：研究区噪声的影响范围占研究区总面积的59%;气味和粉尘的影响主要集中在主城区的东部和南部地区;危险的影响范围主要集中在主城区的东南方向,是南昌市工业较集中的区域,影响面积达19.6 km².该模型将城市建成区环境影响评价分为4个基本过程是可行的,可为研究区土地管理、城市规划等相关政策的制定提供依据.     

面向可持续城市生态系统管理的国土空间开发适宜性评价——以烟台市为例

国土空间开发适宜性评价是国土空间规划编制的基础和前提。面向可持续城市生态系统管理目标,基于生态保护红线和永久基本农田的"底线"思维,以资源环境禀赋为基础,构建了本底约束—综合限制—承载力评价-多空间适宜评价的资源环境承载力和国土空间开发适宜性评价的逻辑框架和指标体系,并以烟台为例,设置城市生态系统保护的不同情景,综合运用特尔斐法及多要素空间叠置等方法,开展了城市资源环境承载力与国土空间开发适宜性评价的实践应用。研究结果表明:①资源环境对烟台经济社会发展的阻碍与限制总体较小,高限制区面积仅占烟台国土面积的6.09%。②烟台市不同区县之间的资源环境承载力差异较大。从西北部向东南,烟台市资源环境承载力呈现出逐渐提高的变化趋势。③面向可持续城市生态系统管理情景,烟台市各县市国土空间开发建设适宜性差异显著,适宜建设区范围为2380 km²。面向城市生态系统一般保护情景,烟台市适宜建设区面积达2610 km²,不适宜建设开发区与适宜建设开发区数量结构为1.12∶1,未来国土空间开发利用潜力较大。两种情景下烟台市国土空间开发适宜性适宜建设区面积均大于现状建...     

Landscape liveability spatial assessment integrating ecosystem and urban services with their perceived importance by stakeholders

In recent years, landscape liveability has become a leading objective in policy and strategic planning. In the anthropocentric view of landscape, ecosystems fulfil important societal needs similarly to urban systems. Urban systems can meet a variety of such needs through Urban Services, which are historically and typically provided within cities. In this view, Ecosystem Services (ES) and Urban Services (US) influence landscape liveability in a comparable manner, so that liveability assessments based on both ES and US can be effective for landscape planning and policy-making purposes. As liveability is strongly dependent not only on objective landscape features, but also on the subjective perception of stakeholders, their involvement becomes essential for a coherent liveability assessment. The present study aims to develop a LIveability Spatial Assessment Model (LISAM) capable of considering both the local accessibility of services and their perceived relevance as expressed by stakeholders. To this end, a conceptual framework to detangle the spatial relationships between service sources, sinks, and delivery points was developed. From this base, consistent and comparable ES and US indices were calculated using GIS spatialisation techniques and then aggregated hierarchically through a Spatial Multicriteria Decision Making Analysis approach. Results include relevant maps showing explicit spatial indices of liveability that integrate, at various hierarchical levels, the local accessibility of ES and US, along with their local perceived relevance. By calculating complex indices able to highlight both the agri-natural and urban system roles on landscape liveability and by taking subjective and objective aspects into account, the model proved to be effective for spatial decision-making. In future applications, indicator and weight uncertainties should be considered and adequately analysed to assess reliability of the final output. The integration of ecosystem and urban disservices would also be relevant for including those landscape factors that reduce the overall level of place liveability.     

Welcoming uncertainty: A probabilistic approach to measure sustainability

Current efforts to build Sustainable Development Measurements have stumbled with problems of arbitrary structure, valuation,artificial ignorance suppression, and democratic illegitimacy. This paper proposes a new method to track and compare the Sustainable Development (SD) of countries, building an Interval of Sustainable Development (ISD). The ISD is capable of overcoming these problems by reporting all possible structures instead of only one, by relying on a variety of existing economic, social, and environmental variables, by embodying confidence levels in the measurement itself, and by facilitating democratic deliberation. By doing this, the ISD is capable of showing, subject to a confidence level, how a country is performing with respect to SD. This paper also applies this method specifying parameters and using available data for 180 countries during 1990–2011. During this 22-year period, results for a selection of countries are presented to illustrate the advantages and limitations of this proposal.     

京津冀城市群地区生态安全格局构建与保障对策

京津冀城市群健康与可持续发展是保障我国国家安全的重要基础,但因其城市化过程缺乏区域间协同联动,产业布局各自为政,导致生态用地流失、水生态失衡等问题,由此带来生态系统服务下降、生态风险加剧、生态安全受到威胁。因此,如何从区域角度构建科学合理的生态安全格局,成为保障京津冀城市群区域一体化协同发展的关键。在国家重大专项(典型脆弱生态修复与保护研究——京津冀城市群生态安全保障技术研究,项目编号为2016YFC0503000)的支持下,该研究将围绕"区域生态安全保障"这一核心主题,揭示京津冀城市群生态安全格局的维持机制与影响因子,重点研发关键生物栖息地生态修复、受损生态空间生态重建、生态监管与生态风险预测预警技术,进而构建区域协调与空间联动的生态安全保障决策系统和预测预警平台,并开展示范应用研究,为京津冀城市群地区生态安全保障提供技术支撑。     

基于最小累积阻力模型的珠海市生态适宜性评价

城市景观具有空间异质性特点,城市建设用地或生态需求用地向周围扩张的过程中受到的阻力值不同,土地单元刺激和推进生态需求用地的扩张强度不同.为比较同一土地单元推进和阻碍作用的大小,可以在相同标准下,通过最小累积阻力值来比较两者大小,找出2种景观过程的平衡点,根据生态学最小限制因子原理,并以2个扩张过程的最小累积阻力差值作为评价城市土地生态适宜性的方法.本文选取珠海市为研究对象,以遥感影像、野外调查和统计资料为数据源,采用相对评价法对珠海城市的生态适宜性进行评价,在ArcGIS支持下,选取景观类型、生态价值、土壤侵蚀敏感性、地质灾害敏感性以及生态功能5类指标,采用最小累积阻力模型对珠海市进行生态适宜性评价.结果表明： 珠海市土地生态适宜程度的5个区域分别为禁止建设区、限制建设区、适宜建设区、重点建设区以及基本农田,分别占总面积的10.1%、32.9%、36.3%、2.3%和18.4%;中心城区土地生态适宜程度的4个等级分别为禁止建设区、限制建设区、适宜建设区和重点建设区,分别占中心城区面积的11.6%、25.6%、52.4%和10.4%.研究提出了珠海城市可持续发展框架,一方面要严格控制中心城区规模,另一方面要大力发展金湾、斗门次级中心城,完善公共基础设施以缓解珠海东西部发展极不平衡的现状.     

大尺度不透水面遥感估算方法比较——以京津唐为例

城市不透水面既是常用的城市化程度指标,也是衡量环境质量的重要指标。采用遥感技术准确提取城市不透水面并分析其空间扩张过程,对生态城市建设具有重要意义。基于Landsat 5 TM影像,采用NDVI二元法和线性光谱分解法,分别提取北京、天津和唐山3个城市不透水面信息,并将不透水面估算结果与近同期的ALOS影像提取结果对比验证。结果表明,线性光谱分解法获取的不透水面结果较好,RMSE为20.6%,能有效提取大范围的不透水面信息。     

Identifying control ensembles for information processing within the cortico-basal ganglia-thalamic circuit

In situations featuring uncertainty about action-reward contingencies, mammals can flexibly adopt strategies for decision-making that are tuned in response to environmental changes. Although the cortico-basal ganglia thalamic (CBGT) network has been identified as contributing to the decision-making process, it features a complex synaptic architecture, comprised of multiple feed-forward, reciprocal, and feedback pathways, that complicate efforts to elucidate the roles of specific CBGT populations in the process by which evidence is accumulated and influences behavior. In this paper we apply a strategic sampling approach, based on Latin hypercube sampling, to explore how variations in CBGT network properties, including subpopulation firing rates and synaptic weights, map to variability of parameters in a normative drift diffusion model (DDM), representing algorithmic aspects of information processing during decision-making. Through the application of canonical correlation analysis, we find that this relationship can be characterized in terms of three low-dimensional control ensembles within the CBGT network that impact specific qualities of the emergent decision policy: responsiveness (a measure of how quickly evidence evaluation gets underway, associated with overall activity in corticothalamic and direct pathways), pliancy (a measure of the standard of evidence needed to commit to a decision, associated largely with overall activity in components of the indirect pathway of the basal ganglia), and choice (a measure of commitment toward one available option, associated with differences in direct and indirect pathways across action channels). These analyses provide mechanistic predictions about the roles of specific CBGT network elements in tuning the way that information is accumulated and translated into decision-related behavior.     

基于生态敏感性评价和CA-Markov模拟的平原型城市开发边界划定——以南昌市为例

城市开发边界的合理划定对引导城市空间有序增长、保障城市空间健康发展具有重要作用。本文以南昌市为研究区,从土壤侵蚀、生境、地质灾害和水资源4方面进行生态敏感性评价,同时,基于CA-Markov模型和南昌市2000、2010和2015年土地利用数据对2020年城市扩张进行模拟;结合南昌市未来发展定位,对两方面成果进行空间决策分析;通过两者的动态协调,提出一种综合生态保护和城市发展的新型城市开发边界划定方法。结果表明: 南昌市生态整体属于中度敏感,基于CA-Markov模拟得到的城市建设用地规模为1239.67 km²,超出规划的建设用地指标(1201.65 km²);但是,将生态敏感性评价结果与扩张模拟结果叠加,并进行动态调整,最终获得调整后的建设用地规模为1193.15 km²,符合规划要求。从保护与发展的协同视角出发,不仅可以保护生态空间,而且有利于引导城市空间有序增长、保障城市空间的健康发展,是实现城市合理开发与生态保护双赢的重要途径。