河流景观生态服务供给与需求/消费的互馈机制

河流景观系统孕育了人类文明,为人类社会提供类型多样的生态系统服务。其本身是一个自然景观过程和社会经济过程高度耦合的社会-生态系统,具有极高的空间异质性、时间动态和鲜明的组织尺度等级结构。当前,对河流景观系统这种特点所决定的生态系统服务供给与需求/消费互馈的机制研究不够深入,普遍缺乏从过程角度刻画生态服务供给与需求/消费互馈关系及其时空异质性和尺度特征。生态服务供给、需求和消费产生于社会-生态系统,是社会-生态耦合的纽带。阐述了河流景观生态服务供给和需求/消费的时空异质性,阐释了它们时空耦合机制和尺度特征,梳理了当前对生态服务供给、需求/消费互馈机理研究的不足。认为未来需要在社会-生态系统的框架下,从景观结构和生态过程出发,融合景观生态过程和社会过程来深入认识河流景观系统的生态服务供给与区内人类对生态服务的需求/消费之间的互馈机制。未来应重点关注：（1）河流景观结构和过程决定的生态服务供给和消费的空间分异及驱动机制;（2）河流生态服务传输的自然和人文载体及其耦合格局;（3）将生态服务需求/消费通过景观结构和生态过程对生态服务供给的反馈融入生态服务评估的方法框架,研发基于生态服务供给和需求/消费的社会-生态互馈过程模型。     

山水林田湖草沙生命共同体理念下社会-生态系统时空耦合及模拟预测

社会-生态系统(SES)耦合关系的研究可以更全面地理解人类活动对生态系统的影响,从而制定更合理的环境保护政策。将"山水林田湖草沙生命共同体理念"融入这一关系中,探究社会-生态系统间的时空耦合,可以促进社会-生态系统各要素的可持续利用和管理,并填补现有研究的空缺。赣州市拥有丰富的自然资源属于中国南方丘陵山地典型的生态区域,包涵山水林田湖草沙的各要素。以赣州市为例,分析2005-2020年社会-生态系统综合评估指标的演变规律,旨在深入了解社会-生态系统的复杂性,为其管理和保护提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)社会-生态系统框架中存在着系统间的耦合逻辑。主要体现在社会系统与资源系统的耦合、资源系统与生态系统的耦合、社会系统与生态系统的耦合三个方面。(2)2005-2020年,社会-生态系统综合评估指标在赣州市的中西部和东北部较高,在南部较低。中西部区域社会-生态系统呈现中、高耦合的格局,西部表现为失调。东南部多呈现低耦合格局。(3)2005-2030年基于SES框架的山、田、湖、治理、社会系统综合评估指数均呈现增长的变化趋势。水、林、草、行动者系统综合评估指数呈下降的变化趋势。基于社会-生态系统框架研究各系统间的耦合格局及其评估指数的模拟预测,对于深入理解社会-生态系统的内在机理、制定相关政策和管理措施、预防和应对生态灾害及推动可持续发展具有重要意义。     

Living within dynamic social-ecological freshwater systems: System parameters and the role of ecological engineering

The objective of ecological engineering is to design sustainable ecosystems that integrate human communities and their natural environment for the benefit of both. In this paper, we illustrate how social-ecological modeling can be used as a tool to clarify this objective at a landscape scale for freshwater systems. Coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) are open, dynamic systems subject to both ecological and socioeconomic perturbations. Here we demonstrate the interactive effects of social and technological uncertainties on SES dynamics over time. Additionally, we integrate research on ecosystem stability, social-ecological modeling, and ecological engineering to offer guidance for research at the human-environment interface. Based on a case study of Lake Erie's Sandusky watershed, we use an integrated human-biophysical model to investigate the influence of two parameters on SES dynamics: (1) regional societal preferences that impact watershed management and (2) technological innovation that alters agricultural nutrient efficiency. Our results illustrate ways in which SES dynamics and optimum management strategies depend on societal preferences within the region, indicating a key area of uncertainty for future investigation. As guidance for SES restoration, our model results also illustrate the conditions under which technological change that increases nutrient efficiency on farms can and cannot create a win-win, or increase both human welfare and SES resistance to eutrophication simultaneously. Using these results, we elucidate the value of ecological engineering and offer guidance for assessments of ecological engineering projects using social-ecological modeling.     

External shocks,agent interactions,and endogenous feedbacks — Investigating system resilience with a stylized land use model

Dynamics of coupled Social-Ecological Systems (SES) result from the interplay of society and ecology. To assess SES resilience, we constructed an Agent-Based Model (ABM) of a land use system as a stereotypical example of SES and investigated how resilience of the represented system is affected by both external disturbances and internal dynamics. The model explicitly considered different aspects of resilience in a framework derived from literature, which includes “resilience to”, “resilience of”, “resilience at”, “resilience due to”, and “indicators of resilience”. External disturbances were implemented as shocks in crop yields. Internal dynamics comprised of two types of social interaction between agents (learning and cooperation), an ecological feedback of soil depletion and an economic feedback of agglomeration benefits. We systematically varied these mechanisms and measured indicators that reflected spatial, social, and economic resilience. Results showed that (1) internal mechanisms increased the ability of the system to recover from external shocks, (2) feedbacks resulted in different regimes of crop cultivation, each with a distinctive set of functions, and (3) resilience is not a generic system property, but strongly depends on what system function is considered. We recommend future studies to include internal dynamics, especially feedbacks, and to systematically assess them across different aspects of resilience.     

森林-农业景观格局变化的社会-生态系统模拟模型方法进展

社会-生态系统（SES）模拟模型是景观格局分析和决策的有效工具,能表征景观格局变化的社会-生态效应及景观决策的复杂反馈机制。文献综述了森林-农业景观格局的SES模型方法进展发现：（1）多数模型对景观过程与社会经济决策的反馈关系分析不足;（2）应集成多种情景模拟和景观效应分析方法,完善现有SES模型的理论方法基础;（3）通过集成格局优化模型和自主体模型会有效改进SES模型功能,具体途径包括：集成情景-生态效应的景观格局模拟方法、完善景观决策的理论基础、加强集成模型的不确定性分析、降低模型复杂性和综合定性-定量数据等。研究结果有助于理解多尺度森林-农业景观格局在社会-生态系统中的重要作用,能更好地支持跨学科集成模型开发与应用。     

基于文化与政治生态学的社会生态系统演进机制研究 ——以杭州与西湖为例

科学认识社会生态系统演进机制是对其进行有效管理的重要基础。以文化与政治生态学为理论基础,提出适合杭州—西湖社会生态系统的综合研究框架,识别了杭州—西湖社会生态系统的5个演进阶段,并分析出系统演进中的3种潜在状态。自然、政治、经济以及社会驱动力是影响杭州—西湖社会生态系统的主导因素,人类行为影响整个生态系统中扰动的频率、大小和形式并改变西湖生态系统的结构与功能,进而影响西湖为城市提供生态系统服务的潜能。在不同历史时期,基于自然、社会、经济、文化等多层面的需求,西湖在不同系统状态下为城市供给不同类别和质量的生态系统服务,总体而言供给与调节服务比例逐渐下降,文化服务逐渐上升,并且后者逐步成为最主要的生态系统服务类别。杭州与西湖在长期的互馈共生中建立了社会生态系统的自适应性调节机制,其背后的生态智慧可为现代风景园林规划提供重要启示。     

社会-生态综合视角下海岸带生态监管框架与应用——以深圳为例

海岸带作为海洋与陆地两大生态系统的连接与桥梁,既是国民经济、社会发展的重要区域与战略中心,也是生态环境破坏和污染的热点区域。以往针对海岸带区域开展的城市化对生态环境的影响研究,主要利用30 m空间分辨率的Landsat数据分析城市扩张对自然生态系统的侵占,如自然用地减少、景观异质性降低、填海造陆速度变快等,而针对污染产业、人类活动等引起的河口水质污染、水温异常、自然岸线退化等复杂生态环境问题关注不足,难以满足陆海统筹管理、综合防治的需求。因此,研究围绕海岸带面临的主要问题,面向海岸带生态环境综合管制,构建了“问题识别-格局量化-地面调查-生态监管”的综合框架,通过明确生态环境问题,量化社会-生态格局,开展实地调查,制定生态监管目标和策略。通过融合高分影像、兴趣点、道路等多源异构数据并结合地面调查,准确识别影响生态环境的社会-生态格局因子,实现空间显性的生态监管。进一步以深圳为典型案例,探讨该概念框架的应用,将深圳市海岸带划分为了四类共980个生态监管单元,其中包括153个优先保护单元,主要为分布在海岸带东部的林地,7个生态风险较大的核心管控单元,597个几乎分布在海岸带西部的重点管控单...     

保障国家公园体制试点区社区居民利益分享的公平与可持续性——基于社会-生态系统意义认知的研究

建立国家公园旨在保护生态系统完整性并为民众提供多样化的使用机会,保障利益相关者利益分享的公平与可持续性。对国家公园社区居民的资源使用而言,需要他们认可保护地管理中的利益分享规则,从而规范行为,促进系统的稳健性。影响规则认可与相应行为的关键在于各个资源使用者如何评估资源价值,以及如何形成价值共识。基于社会-生态系统理论,研究利用一个界定资源价值与形成使用规则的分析框架,通过对资源价值界定的情境认知、对生态系统的意义认知和对可能规则的态度进行分析,研究武夷山国家公园体制试点建设进程中社区对"利益"的动态认知与形成原因、潜在行为变动对系统"稳健性"的影响和促进利益分享规则形成的路径。分析发现,①在保护地管理发展过程中,社区认为其以往存在和国家公园的出现有利于资源的生计带动;②武夷山生态系统的意义首先在于其多样化的物质供给,其次是作为文化遗产和商品所带来精神满足,同时具有生态保护价值;③社区对利益分享规则的态度取决于规则在时空上的应用是否影响他们对生态系统意义所认定的优先次序。因此,研究提出一个用于规则形成的协商空间,从不同资源使用者利益认知角度引导其认知趋同,最终提高社区对规则的接受程度与行为规范,保证社会-生态系统的稳健性。     

湖北梁子湖流域社会生态系统可持续发展的“安全公正空间”

近年来日益增强的人类活动正逐步威胁着地球生态系统的健康发展,给区域可持续发展及环境保护带来了巨大的挑战。如何在社会经济发展的同时维持安全的生态环境？这是可持续发展研究的一个重要问题。本研究借鉴“安全公正空间”理论框架,以长江中下游地区梁子湖流域为例,综合湖泊沉积记录、环境监测数据和社会经济数据,分析该区域内关键生态-环境过程的现状及居民社会福祉指标达成度(达成度指社会基础指标当前值相对于目标值的完成情况),构建了梁子湖流域社会生态系统可持续发展的“安全公正空间”。结果表明: 梁子湖流域内淡水利用、耕地资源、空气质量、水土保持和化学污染等指标超越了环境上限,处于“危险”状态,未来的环境管理中需重点调控;在社会福祉方面,清洁用水与卫生设施、产业创新维度的达成度相对较低;人均GDP与水土保持和空气质量呈显著负相关,体现了社会经济发展对水、土、气的负面效应。本研究借助多源环境数据,特别是湖泊沉积的长序列数据,有效再现了历史环境变化过程,揭示了流域社会生态系统管理中面临的环境及居民福祉短板,为区域可持续发展提供了重要的参考信息。     

Dynamic properties of complex adaptive ecosystems: implications for the sustainability of service provision

Predicting environmental change and its impacts on ecosystem goods and services at local to global scales remains a significant challenge for the international scientific community. This is due largely to the fact that the Earth is made up of open, coupled, complex, interactive and non-linear dynamic systems that are inherently unpredictable. Uncertainties over interactions and feedbacks between natural and human drivers of environmental change (operating at different spatial and temporal scales) can compound intrinsic intractable difficulties faced by plural societies aiming at sustainable management of ecosystems. Social-Ecological Systems (SES) theory addresses these strongly coupled and complex characteristics of social and ecological systems. It can provide a useful framework for articulating contrasting drivers and pressures on ecosystems and associated service provision, spanning different temporalities and provenances. Here, system vulnerabilities (defined as exposure to threats affecting ability of an SES to cope in delivering relevant functions), can arise from both endogenous and exogenous factors across multiple time-scales. Vulnerabilities may also take contrasting forms, ranging from transient shocks or disruptions, through to chronic or enduring pressures. Recognising these diverse conditions, four distinct dynamic properties emerge (resilience, stability, durability and robustness), under which it is possible to maintain system function and, hence, achieve sustainability.     

A framework for assessing ecological quality based on ecosystem services

Existing environmental legislation and ecological quality definitions such as ecosystem integrity tend to rely on measures that, either implicitly or explicitly, utilize naturalness as a key criterion. There are marked practical difficulties with employing the concept of naturalness in human dominated landscapes, and the management of such ecosystems is inevitably going to need to take account of human needs and expectations. We propose that ecological quality could be assessed by its ecosystem service profile (ESP): the overlap between societal expectations for, and the sustainable provision of, suites of ecosystem services. The status for each individual ecosystem service is defined by the ratio of its sustained provision to the expected level of provision for the service. The ESP measure is a multi-criterion, context-specific assessment of the match between expectation for and sustainable supply of ecosystem services. It provides a flexible measure of quality which takes into account that the “ideal” ecosystem state is largely dependent on the specific management context. The implementation of ESPs challenges us to develop indicators for the sustained provision of individual ecosystem services, much better understanding of the trade-offs among services, and practical tools for gauging societal demands. All of which are challenging problems. The proposed framework can help to strategically address research needs and monitoring requirements and foster a more integrative approach to ecosystem assessment and management in the future. The need for this follows from the fact that the undisturbed reference state represents only one aspect of an ecosystem and that ecological quality in human dominated landscapes will, ultimately, be determined by the value society places on the sustainable provision of multiple ecosystem services.     

Quantifying Ecological Stability: From Community to the Lake Ecosystem

We performed a methodological study aimed at extending our previously developed approach to quantify the ecological stability of biotic communities and an entire ecosystem, using Lake Kinneret as a case study. The ecological stability of the biotic communities (phytoplankton and zooplankton) of Lake Kinneret was estimated using two different aggregating schemes. The first scheme used the combined stability index, based on the combined indices of the individual phytoplankton (SI[Comb]_P) and zooplankton (SI[Comb]_Z) taxonomic groups. The total community stability index was calculated based on the total abundances of these communities. The stability of the entire ecosystem was estimated for two sets of ecosystem state variables, a lake “trophic state” set and a “water quality” set, which provided considerably different estimates of the lake ecosystem stability. Good agreement between the results of this study and qualitative estimates of Lake Kinneret stability validates the suitability of this approach to estimate the stability of different ecological units.     

Capturing Ecosystem Services,Stakeholders' Preferences and Trade-Offs in Coastal Aquaculture Decisions: A Bayesian Belief Network Application

Aquaculture activities are embedded in complex social-ecological systems. However, aquaculture development decisions have tended to be driven by revenue generation, failing to account for interactions with the environment and the full value of the benefits derived from services provided by local ecosystems. Trade-offs resulting from changes in ecosystem services provision and associated impacts on livelihoods are also often overlooked. This paper proposes an innovative application of Bayesian belief networks - influence diagrams - as a decision support system for mediating trade-offs arising from the development of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand. Senior experts were consulted (n = 12) and primary farm data on the economics of shrimp farming (n = 20) were collected alongside secondary information on ecosystem services, in order to construct and populate the network. Trade-offs were quantitatively assessed through the generation of a probabilistic impact matrix. This matrix captures nonlinearity and uncertainty and describes the relative performance and impacts of shrimp farming management scenarios on local livelihoods. It also incorporates export revenues and provision and value of ecosystem services such as coastal protection and biodiversity. This research shows that Bayesian belief modeling can support complex decision-making on pathways for sustainable coastal aquaculture development and thus contributes to the debate on the role of aquaculture in social-ecological resilience and economic development.     

Ecosystem spatial self-organization: Free order for nothing?

Ecosystems are complex adaptive systems (CAS) by nature, which means that macroscopic patterns and properties emerge from, and feed back to affect, the interactions among adaptive individual ecological agents. These agents then further adapt (genetically) to the outcomes of those interactions. The concept of self-organization has become increasingly important for understanding ecosystem spatial heterogeneity and its consequences. It is well accepted that ecosystems can self-organize, and that resulting spatial structures carry functional consequences. Feedbacks from the outcome of spatial pattern to the individual agents from which patterns emerge, are an essential component of the definition of CAS but have been rarely examined for ecosystems. We explore whether spatial self-organization provides a mechanism for such feedback for ecosystems as CAS, that is, whether ecosystem-level outcomes of self-organized patterning could feed back to affect or even reinforce local pattern-forming processes at the agent level. Diffuse feedbacks of ecological and evolutionary significance ensue as a result of spatial heterogeneity and regular patterning, whether this spatial heterogeneity results from an underlying template effect or from self-organization. However, feedbacks directed specifically at pattern-forming agents to enhance pattern formation—reinforcing feedback—depend upon the level of organization of agents. Reinforcing evolutionary feedbacks occur at the individual level or below. At the ecosystem level, evidence for mechanisms of feedback from outcomes to patterning to agents forming the patterning remain tenuous. Spatial self-organization is a powerful dynamic in ecosystem and landscape science but feedbacks have been only loosely integrated so far. Self-organized patterns influencing dynamics at the ecosystem level represent “order for free”. Whether or not this free order generated at the ecosystem level carries evolutionary function or is merely epiphenomenal is a fundamental question that we address here.     

When will evolution lead to deceptive signaling in the Sir Philip Sidney game?

Sir Philip Sidney games are a widely used model of simple signaling. Johnstone and Grafen [Johnstone, R.A., Grafen, A., 1993. Dishonesty and the handicap principle. Animal Behaviour 46, 759–764] present a version in which the Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) is for most signalers to “honestly” signal, with a small minority of signalers who “cheat”. This model is among the most frequently cited papers on the topic of “dishonest” signaling and supports the view that signals may be “dishonest” as long as they are “honest on average”. Using genetic algorithms, we demonstrate that another solution exists to the game, an evolutionarily stable set of Nash equilibria in which members of the set never signal and all donors give their resource. Payoffs to players using this set of strategies is greater those when playing the “dishonest” signaling ESS. We demonstrate that a random population is far more likely to evolve to this non-communicating strategy set than the “dishonest” signaling ESS. We also discuss the dynamics of biological game theory models and the advances of genetic algorithms as a heuristic solution method for these models.     

生态补偿的机理与准则

分析国内外生态补偿实践和理论研究的基础上,从可持续发展角度探讨生态补偿的基本内涵;通过对生态系统自组织与反馈、恢复机制的剖析,提出了生态补偿应遵循的基本准则;结合国情,探讨了生态补偿亟待解决的实践困惑和应对策略。     

山水林田湖草生态修复工程的社会-生态系统(SES)分析框架及应用——以浙江省钱塘江源头区域为例

“山水林田湖草生命共同体”是人与自然和谐共处的指导原则,也是人类实现可持续发展的有效实践路径。根据Ostrom提出的社会-生态系统（SES）框架,以浙江省钱塘江源头区域为研究区,构建集流域、陆地和人类活动为一体的社会-生态系统（SES）概念框架,为生态修复工程提供一个问题导向的分析策略。研究发现基于Ostrom构建的钱塘江源头区域山水林田湖草生态修复工程的SES框架,可以用来诊断关键问题、分析影响因素、设定行动情景和评估结果,从而形成完整的实施和解决问题策略。由诊断关键问题得出,该区域面临地质灾害多发、水土流失、环境污染、生物结构单一等多重问题,而人类活动如城市扩张、过度开发自然资源、污染物排放等则是造成社会-生态系统失衡的主要因素。通过行动情景设置将SES框架中涉及的影响因素、解决途径、评价标准、期望的成效以及反馈机制等进行梳理,对研究区的社会-生态系统进行全面分析。根据设立的评价体系对生态修复工程进行生态环境和社会经济效果的动态评估,并不断地根据评价结果进行修正以获得最佳的预期成效。该框架为解决钱塘江源头区域山水林田湖草生态修复工程所面临的问题提供了一个系统的解决方案,并可根据研究区的特点进行相应调整,是一个具有强适用性的社会-生态系统分析框架。     

Two roles for ecological surrogacy: Indicator surrogates and management surrogates

Ecological surrogacy – here defined as using a process or element (e.g., species, ecosystem, or abiotic factor) to represent another aspect of an ecological system – is a widely used concept, but many applications of the surrogate concept have been controversial. We argue that some of this controversy reflects differences among users with different goals, a distinction that can be crystalized by recognizing two basic types of surrogate. First, many ecologists and natural resource managers measure “indicator surrogates” to provide information about ecological systems. Second, and often overlooked, are “management surrogates” (e.g., umbrella species) that are primarily used to facilitate achieving management goals, especially broad goals such as “maintain biodiversity” or “increase ecosystem resilience.” We propose that distinguishing these two overarching roles for surrogacy may facilitate better communication about project goals. This is critical when evaluating the usefulness of different surrogates, especially where a potential surrogate might be useful in one role but not another. Our classification for ecological surrogacy applies to species, ecosystems, ecological processes, abiotic factors, and genetics, and thus can provide coherence across a broad range of uses.     

长江口滨海湿地潮间带生态系统的多稳态特征

多稳态现象普遍存在于多种生态系统中,它与生态系统的健康和可持续发展密切相关,已成为生态学研究的热点与难点,但是目前有关滨海湿地生态系统多稳态的形成机制还缺乏深入研究.本文以崇明东滩鸟类自然保护区的潮间带生态系统为研究对象,通过以下内容,开展滨海湿地多稳态研究: 1)通过验证多稳态的判定依据“双峰”和“阈值”特征,证实长江口潮间带生态系统存在多稳态,并确定其稳态类型;2)通过监测潮间带生态系统水动力过程、沉积动力过程以及盐沼植物生长和扩散情况,分析盐沼植被与沉积地貌之间的正反馈作用,进而探讨潮间带生态系统多稳态的形成机制.结果表明: 1)潮间带生态系统的归一化植被指数(NDVI)频度分布存在明显的双峰特征,且盐沼植物成活存在生物量阈值效应,均证实潮间带生态系统存在多稳态,“盐沼”和“光滩”是潮间带生态系统的两种相对稳定状态;2)崇明东滩盐沼前沿的沉积地貌表现出泥沙快速淤积的趋势,显著促进了盐沼植物的生长,盐沼植物与泥沙淤积之间的这种正反馈作用是潮间带生态系统形成多稳态的主要原因;3)盐沼植被扩散格局监测结果在景观尺度上也表明,泥沙淤积作用促进了潮间带生态系统“盐沼”和“光滩”多稳态的形成.本研究既丰富了滨海湿地稳态转换的机理研究,也为我国开展海岸带保护、修复和管理提供了科学依据,具有重要的理论和实践意义.     

人类活动对生态系统服务流的影响

生态系统服务流对生态系统服务地形成、输送、转化和维持具有重要作用,搭建起了生态系统服务供给与人类需求之间的桥梁,成为近期学者关注的焦点之一。随着人口数量的急剧增加和经济社会的快速发展,人类的物质需求呈非线性方式增长。人类在利用生态系统服务流带来惠益的同时,也给生态系统服务流带来压力。综述了生态系统服务流的内涵和属性特征,包括生态系统服务流的定义、分类、时空尺度、载体特征和量化属性等。分析了人类活动对生态系统服务流的影响机制,即积极的与消极的人类活动通过对生态系统服务流的空间单元、传递载体和量化属性等方面的影响进而影响到具体的生态系统服务流并最终影响人类福祉。探讨了通过生态系统服务流价值和风险评估、生态系统服务流保护规划、生态系统服务流恢复与重建等积极的人类活动,来实现生态系统服务流传输功能的可持续。未来可以通过对生态系统服务流路径载体衰减效应研究、多尺度分析处理系统的使用和生态系统服务流传输网络动态耦合模型的构建等来制定合理的生态系统服务流集成管理。通过对人类活动与生态系统服务流相互关系的研究,有利于对退化的生态系统服务流进行保护和恢复,也可为生态系统服务流相关研究奠定基础。