How Much is Enough? Estimating the Minimum Sampling Required for Effective Monitoring of African Reserves

Effective biological monitoring in developing countries requires a balance of rigour and practicality. Unfortunately, there exist few general guidelines to help practitioners design monitoring programs that reach this balance. Here, we analyse a 33-year monitoring program from Ghana, West Africa, to provide both specific and general suggestions for monitoring in developing countries. Since the late 1960s the Ghana Wildlife Division has monitored more than 40 wildlife species with monthly surveys at sites throughout Ghana's nature reserves. These data present unparalleled opportunities to illuminate the scale and pattern of changes in animal abundance over time and the forces that drive these changes. We used sub-sampling of the Ghana monitoring data for four species in two savanna reserves to identify the minimum level of monitoring necessary to reliably detect changes in wildlife populations over 5-year intervals. We used a similar approach to estimate the minimum sampling needed to infer changes in abundance of hunters in reserves. Our results highlight the relative importance of comprehensive spatial and temporal sampling and suggest a requirement of no less than one monitoring site per every 285 km² in large reserves and 65 km² in smaller reserves. We discuss briefly the cost of effective monitoring and the relevance of our results to other regions of Africa and the world.     

At-sea abundance and spatial distribution of South American sea lion (Otaria byronia) in Chilean Northern Patagonia: How many are there?

The South American sea lion (Otaria byronia) (SSL) is a widespread opportunistic predator that inhabits waters ranging from Southern Ecuador to Southern Chile in the Pacific Ocean and from Southern Brazil to Southern Argentina in the Atlantic. SSL abundance estimates, as for many pinniped species, have relied on shore censuses, with the uncertainty that an indeterminate number of individuals at sea might remain uncounted. The proportion of the population that remains at sea during censuses and their distribution patterns are not clear and has been scarcely assessed. We used line transect sampling to gather information about at-sea abundance, density and spatial distribution of SSL in coastal waters off the Chilean Northern Patagonia. A total of 123 groups were sighted while on-effort, with an estimated density of 0.393 ind./km² (95%CI = 0.262–0.591) and a total abundance, for the surveyed area, of 13,721 individuals (95%CI = 9127–20,627). Even when our survey was rather restricted in spatial range, generalized additive model results showed that depth, distance to SSL rockeries, coastline complexity and geographical coordinates had a significant influence on SSL spatial distribution. The results on abundance and spatial distribution of SSL at sea are discussed in terms of current population estimates. Our substantial at-sea abundance estimate suggests that shore censuses might have been historically biased. Several aspects should be taken into account in further research on SSL abundance, such as including pelagic waters and undertaking simultaneously on-rockery and marine SSL abundance estimates. The results presented here provide valuable insights for revisiting and possibly improve population estimates of SSL and other pinnipeds species worldwide. This is particularly relevant when management and conservation actions need to be taken on those species that have strong interactions with fisheries and aquaculture.     

Small Sample Bias and Variance of Lincoln-Petersen and Bailey Estimators

The Lincoln-Petersen and Bailey estimators of an unknown population size were compared in a computer simulation of capture-recapture sampling with replacement from small populations. The Bailey estimator was negatively biased and had smaller variance than the Petersen estimator. The Petersen estimator tended to be positively biased. The Lincoln-Petersen variance estimator tended to be positively biased while the Bailey variance estimator was negatively biased.     

Distribution-abundance relationship for passerines breeding in Tunisian oases: test of the sampling hypothesis

The positive relationship between local abundance and distribution of species is a widely recognized pattern in community ecology. However, it has been suggested that this relationship can simply be an artefact of sampling because locally rare species are less detectable then locally abundant ones, and hence their distribution can easily be underestimated. Here, we use count data to investigate the relationship between distribution and abundance of passerines breeding in a sample of oases from southern Tunisia, and we provide a test of the sampling artefact hypothesis. In particular, we checked for a difference in detection probability between localized and widespread species, and we tested if increasing the sampling effort affects the significance of the relationship. A significant positive relationship between the average local abundance of passerine species and the proportion of occupied oases was found. The use of a capture-recapture approach allowed us to estimate and to compare the detection probabilities of localized and widespread species subsets. We found that localized species were locally less detectable than widespread species, which is consistent with the main assumption of the sampling artefact hypothesis. However, increasing the detection probability of species by conducting more counts did not affect the significance of the relationship, which did not give support to the sampling artefact hypothesis. Our work implies that sampling contributed to the distribution-abundance relationship we found, but that it is unlikely that such a relationship could entirely be explained by an artefact of sampling. It also underlines the insight that can be gained by using probabilistic approaches of estimating species number and detection probability when attempting to disentangle sampling from ecological effects in community ecology studies.     

How Well Will Brazil's System of Atlantic Forest Reserves Maintain Viable Bird Populations?

It is crucial for biodiversity conservation that protected areas are large and effective enough to support viable populations of their original species. We used a point count distance sampling method to estimate population sizes of a range of bird species in three Atlantic forest protected areas of size 5600, 22,500, and 46,050 ha. Population sizes were generally related to reserve area, although in the mid-sized reserve, there were many rare species reflecting a high degree of habitat heterogeneity. The proportions of forest species having estimated populations >500 ranged from 55% of 210 species in the largest reserve to just 25% of 140 species in the smallest reserve. All forest species in the largest reserves had expected populations >100, but in the small reserve, 28% (38 species) had populations <100 individuals. Atlantic forest endemics were no more or less likely to have small populations than widespread species. There are 79 reserves (>1000 ha) in the Atlantic forest lowlands. However, all but three reserves in the north of the region (Espírito Santo and states north) are smaller than 10,000 ha, and we predict serious levels of local extinction from these reserves. Habitat heterogeneity within reserves may promote species richness within them, but it may also be important in determining species loss over time by suppressing populations of individual species. We suggest that most reserves in the region are so small that homogeneity in the habitat/altitude within them is beneficial for maintenance of their (comparatively small) original species compliment. A lack of protection in the north, continued detrimental human activity inside reserves, and our poor knowledge of how well the reserve system protects individual taxa, are crucial considerations in biodiversity management in the region.     

Development of an optimal sampling protocol for millipedes (Diplopoda)

This study determined a millipede sampling protocol that was efficient, replicable, and thorough, by testing commonly used methods (pitfall trapping, hand collection, and leaf litter collection with Berlese extraction) at sites where the fauna had been intensively sampled, so that the results of different sampling protocols (‘experimental sampling’) could be compared to the previously known fauna of each site (determined by ‘baseline sampling’). Two methods of collecting leaf litter were compared. One method allowed the collector to choose the locations from which to sample leaf litter, while the second method used randomly generated locations. Experimental sampling took place at both an upland site (Swallow Cliff Woods, Cook Co, IL) and a wetland site (Cedarburg Bog, Ozaukee Co, WI) where reliable baseline data was available. The optimal protocol for millipedes was found to consist of a combination of the hand collection and the a priori litter methods. In studies where there are constraints on time or resources devoted to sampling or processing, this protocol can be reduced to the single most effective method, hand collection. Overall, the a priori litter collection method was more effective than the random litter collection method.     

What limits the Serengeti zebra population?

The populations of the ecologically dominant ungulates in the Serengeti ecosystem (zebra, wildebeest and buffalo) have shown markedly different trends since the 1960s: the two ruminants both irrupted after the elimination of rinderpest in 1960, while the zebras have remained stable. The ruminants are resource limited (though parts of the buffalo population have been limited by poaching since the 1980s). The zebras resource acquisition tactics should allow them to outcompete the ruminants, but their greater spatial dispersion makes them more available to predators, and it has been suggested that this population is limited by predation. To investigate the mechanisms involved in the population dynamics of Serengeti zebra, we compared population dynamics among the three species using demographic models based on age-class-specific survival and fecundity. The only major difference between zebra and the two ruminants occurred in the first-year survival. We show that wildebeest have a higher reproductive potential than zebra (younger age at first breeding and shorter generation time). Nevertheless, these differences in reproduction cannot account for the observed differences in the population trends between the zebra and the ruminants. On the other hand, among-species differences in first-year survival are great enough to account for the constancy of zebra population size. We conclude that the very low first-year survival of zebra limits this population. We provide new data on predation in the Serengeti and show that, as in other ecosystems, predation rates on zebras are high, so predation could hold the population in a predator pit. However, lion and hyena feed principally on adult zebras, and further work is required to discover the process involved in the high mortality of foals.     

Diversity and composition of phytophagous insect guilds on Brassicaceae

We investigated the guild structure of phytophagous insects on Brassicaceae in Poland and the influence of host-plant parameters (e.g. sampling effort, geographical distribution, taxonomic isolation, nitrogen indicator values) on the species richness of these guilds. The data were extracted from a study published by Lipa et al. The overall number of recorded ectophagous species is about twice the number of endophagous species. Irrespective of the feeding niche, species are predominantly oligophagous, feeding on more than two Brassicaceae genera. The relative importance of endophagous species within the fauna decreases with increasing host range. The sampling effort predicts a high proportion of the variance of alpha-diversity in oligo- and polyphagous insects, but only a low proportion in specialized species. After correction for sampling effort, most of the plant parameters do not explain an additional proportion of the variance in species richness. We hypothesize that the uniform chemical defence system across genera in Brassicaceae is an important factor triggering host range and diversity patterns in phytophagous insects on crucifers. Received: 3 April 1997 / Accepted: 22 September 1997     

A new method of sequential sampling to obtain the population estimates with a fixed level of precision

A simple method of sequential sampling is developed which would make it automatically possible to secure, without excess sampling, a predetermined level of precision for a series of population estimates being required. It appears to have wide application to sampling field populations under various situations since it is simply based upon the relationship of variance to mean for which a comprehensive formula deduced for biological populations from the linearity in the regression of mean crowding on mean density could be adopted. Some problems that may arise in practical application of the method are also discussed.     

Comparison of distance matrices in studies of population structure and genetic microdifferentiation: quadratic assignment

Questions concerning the relative effects of various evolutionary forces in molding the genetic variability exhibited by groups of human populations have typically been investigated by comparing a variety of genetic and cultural/historical "distance" matrices. A major methodological difficulty has been the lack of formal testing procedures with which to assess the degree of confirmation or disconfirmation of an estimated measure of relationship between such matrices. In this paper, we examine a very flexible matrix combinatorial procedure which generates statistical significance levels for correlational measures of pattern similarity between distance matrices. A recent generalization of the basic procedure to the three-matrix case allows questions concerning which of two matrices best fits a third matrix to be formally tested. Applications of these hypothesis testing and inference procedures to two separate sets of genetic, geographic, and cultural distance matrices illustrates their potential for finally solving a long-standing problem in anthropological genetics.