Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.     

Slow Recovery from Local Disturbances as an Indicator for Loss of Ecosystem Resilience

A range of indicators have been proposed for identifying the elevated risk of critical transitions in ecosystems. Most indicators are based on the idea that critical slowing down can be inferred from changes in statistical properties of natural fluctuations and spatial patterns. However, identifying these signals in nature has remained challenging. An alternative approach is to infer changes in resilience from differences in standardized experimental perturbations. However, system-wide experimental perturbations are rarely feasible. Here we evaluate the potential to infer the risk of large-scale systemic transitions from local experimental or natural perturbations. We use models of spatially explicit landscapes to illustrate how recovery rates upon small-scale perturbations decrease as an ecosystem approaches a tipping point for a large-scale collapse. We show that the recovery trajectory depends on: (1) the resilience of the ecosystem at large scale, (2) the dispersal rate of organisms, and (3) the scale of the perturbation. In addition, we show that recovery of natural disturbances in a heterogeneous environment can potentially function as an indicator of resilience of a large-scale ecosystem. Our analyses reveal fundamental differences between large-scale weak and local-scale strong perturbations, leading to an overview of opportunities and limitations of the use of local disturbance-recovery experiments.     

生态系统的多稳态与突变

许多生态系统可能在短时间内发生难以预料的状态突变, 其中一些生态系统突变的机理可以用多稳态理论进行解释。近年来生态系统的多稳态和突变现象及其机理吸引了研究者和管理者的广泛关注。本文重点对生态系统多稳态的理论基础、识别方法及稳态转换发生的早期预警信号进行综述, 并基于典型生态系统过程对现实世界中可能观测到的稳态转换进行实例分析, 最后对多稳态概念框架和理论应用中的潜在争议进行讨论, 以期为非线性生态系统动态的理论研究、管理实践和生物多样性保护等提供参考。     

人工湿地生态系统服务综合评价研究

人工湿地作为一种高生产力的生态系统能为人类提供多种服务。但多年来对人工湿地的研究主要集中在其净化机理上, 而一直缺乏系统、综合的人工湿地生态系统服务评价体系。基于层次分析法和模糊隶属函数法等数学理论, 首次建立了对人工湿地生态系统服务进行综合评价的方法——人工湿地生态系统服务综合指数。开展了以北京奥林匹克森林公园人工湿地为例生态系统服务综合评价。其生态系统服务综合指数的得分为0.7848 分。该得分较理想, 说明北京奥林匹克森林公园人工湿地具有可观的生态系统服务价值。它能在净化水质、提供栖息地、有机质生产、微气候调节、休闲娱乐和科研教育等诸多方面提供良好服务。对人工湿地生态系统服务进行综合评价, 有利于比较不同人工湿地或同一人工湿地不同时期服务质量的优劣, 从而为人工湿地的研发、设计、建设、运行和管理提供指导。       

National ecosystem services mapping at multiple scales ⿿ The German exemplar

The EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020 requires the Member States of the European Union to map and assess ecosystem services. This paper presents a procedure for developing a national framework of ecosystem service indicators for Germany that is applicable at different scales and is transferable to other countries. The framework was set up to use existing indicators or datasets and to be compatible with international typologies of ecosystem services and their indicators. Starting with an evaluation of the importance of different ecosystem services for Germany and an analysis of existing monitoring systems, we define suitable indicators for mapping ecosystem services nationwide. We demonstrate how both the supply of and demand for ecosystem services can be mapped with different indicators and datasets and how these indicators have to be adapted for use at different scales. Subsequently, we analyze the resulting maps to draw conclusions about the suitability of the different indicators and their complementarity. Furthermore, we show synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany and discuss the applicability of the ecosystem services concept for decision making and spatial planning.     

生物分子网络弹性研究进展

弹性是生物分子网络重要且基础的属性之一,一方面弹性赋予生物分子网络抵抗内部噪声与环境干扰并维持其自身基本功能的能力,另一方面,弹性为网络状态的恢复制造了阻力。生物分子网络弹性研究试图回答如下3个问题：a. 生物分子网络弹性的产生机理是什么？b. 弹性影响下生物分子网络的状态如何发生转移？c. 如何预测生物网络状态转换临界点,以防止系统向不理想的状态演化？因此,研究生物分子网络弹性有助于理解生物系统内部运作机理,同时对诸如疾病发生临界点预测、生物系统状态逆转等临床应用具有重要的指导意义。鉴于此,本文主要针对以上生物分子网络弹性领域的3个热点研究问题,在研究方法和生物学应用上进行了系统地综述,并对未来生物分子网络弹性的研究方向进行了展望。     

Perspectives for ecosystem management based on ecosystem resilience and ecological thresholds against multiple and stochastic disturbances

Ecosystem resilience is the inherent ability to absorb various disturbances and reorganize while undergoing state changes to maintain critical functions. When ecosystem resilience is sufficiently degraded by disturbances, ecosystem is exposed at high risk of shifting from a desirable state to an undesirable state. Ecological thresholds represent the points where even small changes in environmental conditions associated with disturbances lead to switch between ecosystem states. There is a growing body of empirical evidence for such state transitions caused by anthropogenic disturbances in a variety of ecosystems. However, fewer studies addressed the interaction of anthropogenic and natural disturbances that often force an ecosystem to cross a threshold which an anthropogenic disturbance or a natural disturbance alone would not have achieved. This fact highlights how little is known about ecosystem dynamics under uncertainties around multiple and stochastic disturbances. Here, we present two perspectives for providing a predictive scientific basis to the management and conservation of ecosystems against multiple and stochastic disturbances. The first is management of predictable anthropogenic disturbances to maintain a sufficient level of biodiversity for ensuring ecosystem resilience (i.e., resilience-based management). Several biological diversity elements appear to confer ecosystem resilience, such as functional redundancy, response diversity, a dominant species, a foundation species, or a keystone species. The greatest research challenge is to identify key elements of biodiversity conferring ecosystem resilience for each context and to examine how we can manage and conserve them. The second is the identification of ecological thresholds along existing or experimental disturbance gradients. This will facilitate the development of indicators of proximity to thresholds as well as the understanding of threshold mechanisms. The implementation of forewarning indicators will be critical particularly when resilience-based management fails. The ability to detect an ecological threshold along disturbance gradients should therefore be essential to establish a backstop for preventing the threshold from being crossed. These perspectives can take us beyond simply invoking the precautionary principle of conserving biodiversity to a predictive science that informs practical solutions to cope with uncertainties and ecological surprises in a changing world.     

Hospital profiling using Bayesian decision theory

For evaluating the quality of care provided by hospitals, special interest lies in the identification of performance outliers. The classification of healthcare providers as outliers or non-outliers is a decision under uncertainty, because the true quality is unknown and can only be inferred from an observed result of a quality indicator. We propose to embed the classification of healthcare providers into a Bayesian decision theoretical framework that enables the derivation of optimal decision rules with respect to the expected decision consequences. We propose paradigmatic utility functions for two typical purposes of hospital profiling: the external reporting of healthcare quality and the initiation of change in care delivery. We make use of funnel plots to illustrate and compare the resulting optimal decision rules and argue that sensitivity and specificity of the resulting decision rules should be analyzed. We then apply the proposed methodology to the area of hip replacement surgeries by analyzing data from 1,277 hospitals in Germany which performed over 180,000 such procedures in 2017. Our setting illustrates that the classification of outliers can be highly dependent upon the underlying utilities. We conclude that analyzing the classification of hospitals as a decision theoretic problem helps to derive transparent and justifiable decision rules. The methodology for classifying quality indicator results is implemented in an R package (iqtigbdt) and is available on GitHub.     

Evaluating decision rules for nitrogen fertilization

It is important, both for farmer profit and for the environment, to correctly dose nitrogen fertilizer for crop growth. Fertilizer recommendations are embodied in decision rules, which give a recommended dose of nitrogen (N) as a function of information available at the time the decision is made. In this paper, we first propose a criterion for evaluating decision rules. The proposed criterion is the expectation of the objective function when the decision rule is implemented. The major problem here is the estimation of this criterion. Two estimators are considered, a model-based and a nonparametric estimator. A simulation study shows that, in essentially all cases, the nonparametric estimator is better or no worse than the model-based estimator. The bias in the nonparametric estimator is always very small.     

Assessing the robustness and optimality of alternative decision rules with varying assumptions

Several alternative decision rules have been proposed for how individuals assess and choose options, such as mates and territories. Three of these rules are the threshold rule, where individuals choose the first option that exceeds a preset level of quality, the best-of- n rule, where individuals assess a fixed number of options and then choose the best of those options, and the comparative Bayes rule, where individuals use estimates of options to selectively assess and choose options. It has been previously concluded that the threshold rule produces higher average fitness than the best-of- n rule when assessment costs are not trivial. However, previous comparisons assumed that time and options are infinite, individuals can estimate the distribution of option quality without uncertainty or mistakes, and individuals receive perfect information about the quality of assessed options. I found that the best-of- n rule produces higher average fitness than the threshold rule despite significant assessment costs, when time for choosing an option is limited, when individuals are choosing from a small pool of options, when estimates of the distribution of option quality are error-prone, and when there is uncertainty about the distribution of option quality. I also found that the comparative Bayes rule produces higher average fitness than the threshold and best-of-n rules when time or options are limited and when individuals receive imperfect information about the quality of assessed options. Therefore, the optimality of alternative decision rules depends on more than the size of assessment costs and the previous conclusions of empirical studies that have assumed such need to be re-examined. Copyright 2002 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.     

Learning-based biomarker-assisted rules for optimized clinical benefit under a risk constraint

Novel biomarkers, in combination with currently available clinical information, have been sought to improve clinical decision making in many branches of medicine, including screening, surveillance, and prognosis. Statistical methods are needed to integrate such diverse information to develop targeted interventions that balance benefit and harm. In the specific setting of disease detection, we propose novel approaches to construct a multiple-marker-based decision rule by directly optimizing a benefit function, while controlling harm at a maximally tolerable level. These new approaches include plug-in and direct-optimization-based algorithms, and they allow for the construction of both nonparametric and parametric rules. A study of asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators is provided. Simulation results demonstrate good clinical utilities for the resulting decision rules under various scenarios. The methods are applied to a biomarker study in prostate cancer surveillance.     

What is a healthy ecosystem?

Rapid deterioration of the world's major ecosystems has intensified the need for effective environmental monitoring and the development of operational indicators of ecosystem health. Ecosystem health represents a desired endpoint of environmental management, but it requires adaptive, ongoing definition and assessment. We propose that a healthy ecosystem is one that is sustainable – that is, it has the ability to maintain its structure (organization) and function (vigor) over time in the face of external stress (resilience). Various methods to quantify these three ecosystem attributes (vigor, organization, and resilience) are discussed. These attributes are then folded into a comprehensive assessment of ecosystem health. A network analysis based ecosystem health assessment is developed and tested using trophic exchange networks representing several different aquatic ecosystems. Results indicate the potential of such an ecosystem health assessment for evaluating the relative health of similar ecosystems, and quantifying the effects of natural or anthropogenic stress on the health of a particular ecosystem over time.     

Asymmetric response of early warning indicators of phytoplankton transition to and from cycles

Phytoplankton populations often exhibit cycles associated with nuisance blooms of cyanobacteria and other algae that cause toxicity, odor problems, oxygen depletion, and fish kills. Models of phytoplankton blooms used for management and basic research often contain critical transitions from stable points to cycles, or vice-versa. It would be useful to know whether aquatic systems, especially water supplies, are close to a critical threshold for cycling blooms. Recent studies of resilience indicators have focused on alternate stable points, although theory suggests that indicators such as variance and autocorrelation should also rise prior to a transition from stable point to stable cycle. We investigated changes in variance and autocorrelation associated with transitions involving cycles using two models. Variance rose prior to the transition from a small-radius cycle (or point) to a larger radius cycle in all cases. In many but not all cases, autocorrelation increased prior to the transition. However, the transition from large-radius to small-radius cycles was not associated with discernible increases in variance or autocorrelation. Thus, indicators of changing resilience can be measured prior to the transition from stable to cyclic plankton dynamics. Such indicators are potentially useful in management. However, these same indicators do not provide useful signals of the reverse transition, which is often a goal of aquatic ecosystem restoration. Thus, the availability of resilience indicators for phytoplankton cycles is asymmetric: the indicators are seen for the transition to bloom–bust cycles but not for the reverse transition to a phytoplankton stable point.     

The empirical question of thresholds and mechanisms of mate choice

Summary Theoretical discussions concerning how animals might best sample and select mates have suggested that individuals could base decisions either on a sample of mates (sampled-based decisions) or on a threshold of comparison (threshold-based decisions). Recent theoretical work demonstrates that threshold-based mating decisions generate higher expected fitness than sample-based mating decisions when search costs exist. Empirical results from most unmanipulated systems, however, either conclude that females make sample-based decisions or are inconclusive. A few experimental studies designed to detect mating thresholds purport to demonstrate threshold-based choice but an examination of these studies indicates such conclusions were premature. We believe that few examples of threshold-based choice exist because protocols designed to identify mating thresholds were often inconsistent with models of threshold choice. We suggest that future empirical work strive not to document mating thresholdsper se. Rather, future work might best reveal decision rules by manipulating the distribution of quality among potential mates; such manipulations predict uniquely how females using sample-based and threshold-based decision rules should behave.     

Ecological integrity of tropical secondary forests: concepts and indicators

Naturally regenerating forests or secondary forests (SFs) are a promising strategy for restoring large expanses of tropical forests at low cost and with high environmental benefits. This expectation is supported by the high resilience of tropical forests after natural disturbances, yet this resilience can be severely reduced by human impacts. Assessing the characteristics of SFs and their ecological integrity (EI) is essential to evaluating their role for conservation, restoration, and provisioning of ecosystem services. In this study, we aim to propose a concept and indicators that allow the assessment and classification of the EI of SFs. To this end, we review the literature to assess how EI has been addressed in different ecosystems and which indicators of EI are most commonly used for tropical forests. Building upon this knowledge we propose a modification of the concept of EI to embrace SFs and suggest indicators of EI that can be applied to different successional stages or stand ages. Additionally, we relate these indicators to ecosystem service provision in order to support the practical application of the theory. EI is generally defined as the ability of ecosystems to support and maintain composition, structure and function similar to the reference conditions of an undisturbed ecosystem. This definition does not consider the temporal dynamics of recovering ecosystems, such as SFs. Therefore, we suggest incorporation of an optimal successional trajectory as a reference in addition to the old-growth forest reference. The optimal successional trajectory represents the maximum EI that can be attained at each successional stage in a given region and enables the evaluation of EI at any given age class. We further suggest a list of indicators, the main ones being: compositional indicators (species diversity/richness and indicator species); structural indicators (basal area, heterogeneity of basal area and canopy cover); function indicators (tree growth and mortality); and landscape proxies (landscape heterogeneity, landscape connectivity). Finally, we discuss how this approach can assist in defining the value of SF patches to provide ecosystem services, restore forests and contribute to ecosystem conservation.     

Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades

Complex natural systems with eroded resilience, such as populations, ecosystems and socio‐ecological systems, respond to small perturbations with abrupt, discontinuous state shifts, or critical transitions. Theory of critical transitions suggests that such systems exhibit fold bifurcations featuring folded response curves, tipping points and alternate attractors. However, there is little empirical evidence of fold bifurcations occurring in actual complex natural systems impacted by multiple stressors. Moreover, resilience of complex systems to change currently lacks clear operational measures with generic application. Here, we provide empirical evidence for the occurrence of a fold bifurcation in an exploited fish population and introduce a generic measure of ecological resilience based on the observed fold bifurcation attributes. We analyse the multivariate development of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua), which is currently the world's largest cod stock, over six decades (1949–2009), and identify a population state shift in 1981. By plotting a multivariate population index against a multivariate stressor index, the shift mechanism was revealed suggesting that the observed population shift was a nonlinear response to the combined effects of overfishing and climate change. Annual resilience values were estimated based on the position of each year in relation to the fitted attractors and assumed tipping points of the fold bifurcation. By interpolating the annual resilience values, a folded stability landscape was fit, which was shaped as predicted by theory. The resilience assessment suggested that the population may be close to another tipping point. This study illustrates how a multivariate analysis, supported by theory of critical transitions and accompanied by a quantitative resilience assessment, can clarify shift mechanisms in data‐rich complex natural systems.     

Evaluation method for coalmining-based cities ecosystem based on attribute mathematical model with Huainan City as an example

Attributive recognition model of coalmining-based cities ecosystem classification is developed in terms of attributive mathematical theory. Based on the analysis of main causes of coalmining-based cities ecosystem, the city vitality, city structure strength, city resilience ability, service functions and health status are chosen as the criterion indicators of coalmining-based cities ecosystem classification; the attributive measurement functions are constructed to compute the attributive measurement of single indicator and multi-indicator; and the synthetic attributive measurement is calculated by the AHP; the health classification of cities ecosystem are recognized by the confidence criterion. An empirical analysis is made by the proposed model and method, the synthetic evaluation results are better than fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method which validates the proposed model feasible, effective and reliable in coalmining-based cities ecosystem classification. As attributive recognition theory can success fully resolve certain issues with a number of fuzzy attribution in comprehensive evaluation, its confidence criterion is established on the basis of the ordered evaluation sets, consequently it will make the evaluation results more reliable.     

The effect of prey movement on attack behavior and patch residence decision rules of wolf spiders (Araneae: Lycosidae)

We used a video imaging technique to test the effects of prey movement on attack behavior and foraging patch residence time decision rules of wolf spiders. TwelveSchizocosa ocreata (Hentz) (Lycosidae) were tested in an artificial foraging patch stimulus chamber consisting of a microscreen television displaying a computer digitized, animated image of a cricket. Four prey movement treatments were used: (1) a blank screen, (2) a stationary cricket control, (3) a cricket moving for 1 min, and (4) a cricket moving for 10 min. Spiders stayed significantly longer in treatments with higher cricket activity. Spiders also stayed longer when they attacked the stimulus than when they did not. The distribution of patch residence times of spiders indicates a decision rule based on a fixed probability of leaving.     

Functional diversity can facilitate the collapse of an undesirable ecosystem state

Biodiversity may increase ecosystem resilience. However, we have limited understanding if this holds true for ecosystems that respond to gradual environmental change with abrupt shifts to an alternative state. We used a mathematical model of anoxic–oxic regime shifts and explored how trait diversity in three groups of bacteria influences resilience. We found that trait diversity did not always increase resilience: greater diversity in two of the groups increased but in one group decreased resilience of their preferred ecosystem state. We also found that simultaneous trait diversity in multiple groups often led to reduced or erased diversity effects. Overall, our results suggest that higher diversity can increase resilience but can also promote collapse when diversity occurs in a functional group that negatively influences the state it occurs in. We propose this mechanism as a potential management approach to facilitate the recovery of a desired ecosystem state.     

Assessment of the resilience of socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes: A case study from Lefke Region of North Cyprus

The purpose of this study is to assess the resilience of socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes (SEPLS) of Lefke Region in North Cyprus in the face of disturbance factors (e.g. drought, urbanization and land abandonment) by adopting a set of indicators. The main objectives of the study include measurement of the respective resilience of the ecological, social and agricultural systems of the SEPLS by using relevant indicators. The method of the study consists of three parts: (i) conceptualization of the resilience of the SEPLS of Lefke Region to address the key systems (ecosystem, agricultural and social), their hierarchical structures, components and interrelations; (ii) development of a set of suitable resilience assessment indicators for these systems; (iii) for the development of resilience assessment indicators a participatory approach was designated to collect the relevant data. Accordingly, a multiple-choice questionnaire – consisting of 5 choices – was prepared and relevant data were collected from December 2015 to March 2016 in 12 villages through personal interviews with 106 respondents.The respondents have expressed their preferences by selecting the most suitable choice in 5 which were ordered from the lowest to the highest degree of resilience (1–5 point scale). The results of the evaluation revealed that the average values (importance) of the ecological, agricultural and social resilience are respectively 2,87 (low), 3,44 (moderate) and 2,53 (low) out of maximum 5-points. The overall resilience of the SEPLS was estimated to be low with a 2,94 magnitude. Finally, some conclusions (e.g. integrated landscape management) for strengthening the resilience of the SEPLS in Lefke Region in terms of biodiversity conservation, agricultural production and sustainable livelihood development were drawn based on the major findings of the study.It is expected that the findings and conclusions of this study can draw attention of policy makers and natural resource managers on building and strengthening the resilience of the SEPLS of Lefke Region in terms of biodiversity conservation, sustainable agricultural production and livelihood development.