Climate‐driven trends and ecological implications of event‐scale upwelling in the California Current System

Eastern boundary current systems are among the most productive and lucrative ecosystems on Earth because they benefit from upwelling currents. Upwelling currents subsidize the base of the coastal food web by bringing deep, cold and nutrient‐rich water to the surface. As upwelling is driven by large‐scale atmospheric patterns, global climate change has the potential to affect a wide range of significant ecological processes through changes in water chemistry, water temperature, and the transport processes that influence species dispersal and recruitment. We examined long‐term trends in the frequency, duration, and strength of continuous upwelling events for the Oregon and California regions of the California Current System in the eastern Pacific Ocean. We then associated event‐scale upwelling with up to 21 years of barnacle and mussel recruitment, and water temperature data measured at rocky intertidal field sites along the Oregon coast. Our analyses suggest that upwelling events are changing in ways that are consistent with climate change predictions: upwelling events are becoming less frequent, stronger, and longer in duration. In addition, upwelling events have a quasi‐instantaneous and cumulative effect on rocky intertidal water temperatures, with longer events leading to colder temperatures. Longer, more persistent upwelling events were negatively associated with barnacle recruitment but positively associated with mussel recruitment. However, since barnacles facilitate mussel recruitment by providing attachment sites, increased upwelling persistence could have indirect negative impacts on mussel populations. Overall, our results indicate that changes in coastal upwelling that are consistent with climate change predictions are altering the tempo and the mode of environmental forcing in near‐shore ecosystems, with potentially severe and discontinuous ramifications for ecosystem structure and functioning.     

Plankton response to weakening of the Iberian coastal upwelling

Coastal upwelling regions, which are affected by equatorward‐wind variability, are among the most productive areas of the oceans. It has been suggested that global warming will lead to a general strengthening of coastal upwelling, with important ecological implications and an impact on fisheries. However, in the case of the Iberian upwelling, the long‐term analysis of climatological variables described here reveals a weakening in coastal upwelling. This is linked to a decrease of zonal sea level pressure gradient, and correlated with an observed increase of sea surface temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation. Weakening of coastal upwelling has led to quantifiable modifications of the ecosystem. In outer shelf waters a drop in new production over the last 40 years is likely related to the reduction of sardine landings at local harbors. On the other hand, in inner shelf and Ria waters, the observed weakening of upwelling has slowed down the residual circulation that introduces nutrients to the euphotic layer, and has increased the stability of the water column. The drop in nutrient levels has been compensated by an increase of organic matter remineralization. The phytoplankton community has responded to those environmental trends with an increase in the percentage of dinoflagellates and Pseudonitzschia spp. and a reduction in total diatoms. The former favors the proliferation of harmful algal blooms and reduces the permitted harvesting period for the mussel aquaculture industry. The demise of the sardine fishery and the potential threat to the mussel culture could have serious socio‐economic consequences for the region.     

Somatic production of two species: Crassostrea virginica and Ischadium recurvum Bivalvia in Mecoacán, Tabasco, México

The Mexican oyster fishery, 90% supported by the coastal lagoons of the Gulf of Mexico, has decreased drastically in the last six years as a result of anthropogenic pollution and improper management. The mussel Ischadium recurvum has proliferated and competes with oysters for space and probably food. Crassostrea virginica and Ischadium recurvum were studied to evaluate somatic production with biometry and physiological condition indices (PCI's) during an annual cycle. A random sample of 200 organisms was taken montly for each species. Condition indices wet flesh weigth: wet shell weight ratio (WFW/WSW), dry flesh weight: wet flesh weight ratio (DFW/WFW), dry flesh wet: dry shell weight ratio (DFW/DSW), and ash free dry weight: tissue dry weight (AFDW/TDW) were calculated. In order to stablish physiological condition and temporal variability, these indices were compared between species and months. The somatic production of mussels was higher than in oysters. This enhancement in production could be explained by: 1) Mussel uses less energy for shell production, 2) a constant recruitment of mussel almost year-round, and 3) the mesohalin lagoon was more favourable to the mussel.     

Multiple stressors,nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems

Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate‐related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate‐influenced variables including sea‐surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind‐wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO‐related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate‐related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems.     

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near‐term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine‐scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind‐driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs’ ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high‐resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine‐scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under ‘normal’ combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020–2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high‐resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near‐term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean–atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse‐scale GCMs.     

A mineralogical record of ocean change: Decadal and centennial patterns in the California mussel

Ocean acidification, a product of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, may already have affected calcified organisms in the coastal zone, such as bivalves and other shellfish. Understanding species’ responses to climate change requires the context of long‐term dynamics. This can be particularly difficult given the longevity of many important species in contrast with the relatively rapid onset of environmental changes. Here, we present a unique archival dataset of mussel shells from a locale with recent environmental monitoring and historical climate reconstructions. We compare shell structure and composition in modern mussels, mussels from the 1970s, and mussel shells dating back to 1000–2420 years BP. Shell mineralogy has changed dramatically over the past 15 years, despite evidence for consistent mineral structure in the California mussel, Mytilus californianus, over the prior 2500 years. We present evidence for increased disorder in the calcium carbonate shells of mussels and greater variability between individuals. These changes in the last decade contrast markedly from a background of consistent shell mineralogy for centuries. Our results use an archival record of natural specimens to provide centennial‐scale context for altered minerology and variability in shell features as a response to acidification stress and illustrate the utility of long‐term studies and archival records in global change ecology. Increased variability between individuals is an emerging pattern in climate change responses, which may equally expose the vulnerability of organisms and the potential of populations for resilience.     

Oceanographic drivers of offspring abundance may increase or decrease reproductive variance in a temperate marine fish

In species that reproduce into uncertain environments, the relationship between mean reproductive success (the abundance of new recruits) and the variance in reproductive success (whether adults contribute disproportionally more offspring) may not be straightforward because of stochastic environmental processes that create high variance in reproductive success among adults. In this study, we investigated the relationships between oceanography, reproductive success and reproductive variance in the black rockfish, Sebastes melanops, a long‐lived temperate reef fish with pelagic larvae. We quantified black rockfish recruitment, genetic diversity and growth rates from otolith microstructure over 5 years (2005–2009) during which oceanographic conditions differed. We used cross‐correlations to determine windows of time during which oceanographic variables were significantly correlated with the resulting abundance or genetic diversity of recruits. We found that warmer ocean temperatures were positively correlated with the abundance of recruits, as well as the effective number of breeders. In contrast, the strength of coastal upwelling during settlement was positively correlated with the annual abundance of new recruits, but was negatively correlated with the effective number of breeders. Larval growth rates were explained substantially more by temperature than by upwelling and suggested that temperature affected survival through growth, while upwelling affected survival through transport. Our results indicated that cold ocean temperatures and intense upwelling caused sweepstakes‐like processes to operate on black rockfish populations, despite high abundances of recruits. We propose that a decoupling of the mean and variance in reproductive success may be characteristic of organisms that reproduce into uncertain environments.     

Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large‐scale forcing controls decadal‐scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin‐scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large‐scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long‐term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom‐up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS.     

Coastal upwelling, primary production and mussel growth in the Rías Baixas of Galicia

The Rías Baixas are four flooded tectonic valleys located on the northwest Iberian Peninsula that support a mussel production of about 250 × 10⁶ kg y^–1 from 3337 mussel rafts. Mussel production in this region is the highest in Europe and one of the most intensive in the world, giving employment to 9000 people directly and 20000 indirectly. The causes of this high mussel production are discussed through the analysis of published and some unpublished information. The interaction between coastal upwelling and the circulation patterns in the Rías, which channel the 3-dimensional variability of the open ocean into a 2-dimensional system, promotes a massive response in the productivity of phytoplankton populations inside the Rías, even during weak upwelling events along the coast. Coastal upwelling in the area typically occurs between March–April and September–October. The mean value of gross primary production during the whole upwelling season is 1.4 g C m^–2 d^–1, although high sporadic values of 4 g C m^–2 d^–1 may occur during upwelling relaxation events, when phytoplankton export to the coastal shelf is restricted. Mussel growth occurs mainly during the upwelling season. It is estimated that mussel harvest extracts 10% of the primary production. The phytoplankton response to upwelling provides food of high quality (f 0.5) that determines high absorption efficiency (0.6), whereas the characteristics of the Rías maintains the seston concentration at levels (0.5 – 1.3 mg TPM l^–1 and <5 mg Chl a m^–3) below the threshold of pseudo-faeces production. The physiological behaviour of mussels indicates that the high yield of mussel culture in the Rías of Galicia is a consequence of the particular characteristics of the seston.     

Greenhouse gas,upwelling‐favorable winds,and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems

Coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems generally represent the most productive large marine ecosystems of the world's oceans, in terms of both primary production rates and tonnages of exploitable fish produced. The Peruvian upwelling system, in particular, stands out as a major factor in world fish production. The Pacific trade winds have traditionally been considered to be the primary driving force for the upwelling system off Peru, but are projected to weaken as climate change proceeds. This leads to concern that the upwelling process in the Peru system, to which its productivity is linked, may likewise weaken. However, other mechanisms involving greenhouse‐associated intensification of thermal low‐pressure cells over the coastal landmasses of upwelling regions suggest general intensification of wind‐driven ocean upwelling in coastal upwelling regions of the world's oceans. But although certain empirical results have supported this expectation, it has not been consistently corroborated in climate model simulations, possibly because the scale of the coastal intensification may be small relative to the scales that are appropriately reflected in the standard models. Here we summarize available evidence for the intensification mechanism and present a proxy test that uses variations in water vapor, the dominant natural greenhouse gas, to offer multiple‐realization empirical evidence for action of the proposed mechanism in the real world situation. While many potential consequences to the future of marine ecosystems would codepend on climate change‐related changes in the thermocline and nutricline structures, an important subset, involving potential increased propensities for hypoxia, noxious gas eruptions, toxic red tide blooms, and/or jellyfish outbreaks, may depend more directly on changes in the upwelling‐favorable wind itself. A prospective role of fisheries in either mitigating or reinforcing this particular class of effects is suggested.     

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths

Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time‐series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life‐history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time‐series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces.     

Zebra mussel (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Dreissena polymorpha</Emphasis>) affects the feeding ecology of early stage striped bass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Morone saxatilis</Emphasis>) in the Hudson River estuary

Variability in the feeding ecology of young fishes over short and long time scales in estuaries is likely to affect population dynamics. We studied 14 years of early stage Striped Bass feeding ecology in the Hudson River Estuary over a 25-year time span, including years in which invasive zebra mussels markedly altered energy flow within the estuary. We predicted that feeding success would be low and that diet composition would be altered during years of high zebra mussel impact, particularly in upriver locations where mussels occur. Feeding success in the short term was indicated by volume of gut contents and in the long term by dry mass at length, i.e. condition; these measures were positively intercorrelated and varied significantly year to year. We tested for associations between condition and multiple biotic and abiotic environmental variables. There was a strong negative effect of zebra mussel grazing rate on condition in upriver locations and a weak positive effect in downriver locations. In upriver locations, condition was 33% higher when local salinity was high and zebra mussel grazing rates were low, whereas in downriver locations, condition was 35% higher when zebra mussel grazing rates and copepod abundance were high and local dissolved oxygen was low. Copepods, amphipods, mysids, and Leptodora constituted the highest prey-specific index of relative importance throughout the estuary. There was no evident effect of the zebra mussel invasion on diet composition. This long-term study corroborates the inferences of earlier studies that zebra mussels reduced early-stage striped bass growth rate.     

Response of a rocky intertidal ecosystem engineer and community dominant to climate change

To evaluate how climate change might impact a competitively dominant ecological engineer, we analysed the growth response of the mussel Mytilus californianus to climate patterns [El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]. Mussels grew faster during warmer climatic events. Growth was initially faster on a more productive cape compared to a less productive cape. Growth rates at the two capes merged in 2002, coincidentally with a several year-long shift from warm to cool PDO conditions. To determine the mechanism underlying this response, we examined growth responses to intertidal sea and air temperatures, phytoplankton, sea level and tide height. Together, water temperature (32%) and food (12.5%) explained 44.5% of the variance in mussel growth; contributions of other factors were not significant. In turn, water temperature and food respond to climate-driven variation in upwelling and other, unknown factors. Understanding responses of ecosystem engineers to climate change will require knowing direct thermal effects and indirect effects of factors altered by temperature change.     

Predicting population consequences of ocean climate change for an ecosystem sentinel,the seabird Cassin's auklet

Forecasting the ecological effects of climate change on marine species is critical for informing greenhouse gas mitigation targets and developing marine conservation strategies that remain effective and increase species' resilience under changing climate conditions. Highly productive coastal upwelling systems are predicted to experience substantial effects from climate change, making them priorities for ecological forecasting. We used a population modeling approach to examine the consequences of ocean climate change in the California Current upwelling ecosystem on the population growth rate of the planktivorous seabird Cassin's auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus), a demographically sensitive indicator of marine climate change. We use future climate projections for sea surface temperature and upwelling intensity from a regional climate model to forecast changes in the population growth rate of the auklet population at the important Farallon Island colony in central California. Our study projected that the auklet population growth rate will experience an absolute decline of 11–45% by the end of the century, placing this population on a trajectory toward extinction. In addition, future changes in upwelling intensity and timing of peak upwelling are likely to vary across auklet foraging regions in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), producing a mosaic of climate conditions and ecological impacts across the auklet range. Overall, the Farallon Island Cassin's auklet population has been declining during recent decades, and ocean climate change in this century under a mid‐level emissions scenario is projected to accelerate this decline, leading toward population extinction. Because our study species has proven to be a sensitive indicator of oceanographic conditions in the CCE and a powerful predictor of the abundance of other important predators (i.e. salmon), the significant impacts we predicted for the Cassin's auklet provide insights into the consequences that ocean climate change may have for other plankton predators in this system.     

Spring climate and summer otolith growth in juvenile Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus

The influence of different climate variables on the first four years of otolith growth in Salangen Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, was studied over the period 1939?C2005. Salangen is a coastal, low altitude, subarctic lake system located in northern Norway. Climate data, including water temperature, air temperature, ice-cover and precipitation, were available for most of the 67?year period. Water temperatures in May and June had a significant effect on otolith growth during the second growth year, while no relationship between otolith growth and climate variables was found for the first, third and fourth years of otolith growth. Otolith increment size during the third and fourth growth year was autocorrelated with growth during the previous year. Spring snow fall and timing of ice break-up had an indirect effect on growth, as these variables were highly correlated with spring water temperatures. High variation in otolith growth within years and among individuals suggests that individual and age-specific variations in spatial habitat use may confound the direct effects of changing air temperatures and time of ice break-up.     

Regional and local controls on postglacial vegetation and fire in the Siskiyou Mountains, northern California, USA

The Siskiyou Mountains of northwestern California and southwestern Oregon are a floristic hotspot, and the high diversity of conifers there likely results from a combination of geological, ecological, climatological and historical factors. To evaluate how past climate variability has influenced the composition, structure and fire regime of the Siskiyou forests, pollen, charcoal, and lithological evidence was examined from two lakes along a moisture gradient to reconstruct the vegetation, fire and climate history. The late-glacial period was characterized by subalpine parkland and infrequent fire at both sites. During the late-glacial/Early Holocene transition period, subalpine parkland was replaced by a closed forest of Pinus, Cupressaceae, Abies and Pseudotsuga and more frequent fires a 1000 years earlier at the wetter site, and it is likely that reduced Pacific Ocean upwelling created warmer drier conditions at the coast. In the Early Holocene, Pinus, Cupressaceae were less abundant and fire less frequent at the coastal site during a period of increased coastal upwelling and fog production. In the Late Holocene, Abies, Pseudotsuga, Pinus, and Quercus vaccinifolia increased in the forest at both sites suggesting a widespread response to cooling. Fewer fires at the wetter site may account for the abundance of Picea breweriana within the last 1000 years. The comparison of the two records implies that large-scale controls in climate during the last 14,000 cal yr BP have resulted in major changes in vegetation and fire regime. Asynchrony in the ecosystem response of wetter and drier sites arises from small-scale spatial variations in effective moisture and temperature resulting from topographically-influenced microclimates and coastal-to-inland climate gradients.     

PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF THE SARDINES (SARDINOPS SPP.): ASSESSING BIOGEOGRAPHIC MODELS AND POPULATION HISTORIES IN TEMPERATE UPWELLING ZONES

Sardines (Sardinops spp.) occupy temperate upwelling zones in the coastal regions of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including locations in Japan, California, Chile, Australia, and South Africa. East and West Pacific populations are separated by vast expanses of open ocean, and northern and southern hemisphere populations are separated by tropical waters which are lethal to sardines. The relative importance of these barriers has been the focus of a longstanding debate between vicariance and dispersal schools in biogeography. Comparisons of a 500 bp fragment of the mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region reveal strong geographic structuring of mtDNA lineages but shallow divergence both within and between regional populations. Regional populations are related to one another in a stepping-stone pattern, the apparent result of a series of Pleistocene dispersal events around the continental margins of the Indian-Pacific Basin. These mtDNA data, combined with an electrophoretic survey of variability at 34 nuclear loci (Grant and Leslie 1996), indicate that the five regional forms of Sardinops (considered separate taxa by most authorities) probably diverged within 500,000 years BP, a much shorter timeframe than predicted by vicariance models based on plate tectonics. High mtDNA haplotype diversity, coupled with an excess of rare alleles in the protein electrophoretic dataset, may indicate exponential growth from a small ancestral population. The mtDNA and allozyme data are concordant with climate records and fossil evidence in portraying regional populations as recent, unstable, and ephemeral. Regional populations of sardines have probably been extinguished and recolonized over short evolutionary timescales in response to changes in climate and the oceanography of coastal upwelling zones.     

Chemical nature of feeding stimulants for the juvenile Dover sole, Solea solea (L.)

Juvenile Dover sole, Solea solea , were weaned from a live food, Artemia salina nauplii, on to a casein-based particulate diet flavoured with flesh of the mussel, Mytilus edulis . These fish would not accept an unflavoured casein-based diet but readily ate the diet flavoured with either mussel flesh or a mixture of pure chemicals whose composition was based on an analysis of the low-molecular weight fraction of mussel flesh. The rate of growth and survival over a seventy-seven day period was essentially the same on either of the flavoured diets. The active constituent in the mixture of pure chemicals was identified as glycine betaine for fish of wet weight exceeding 50g while glycine betaine with certain L-amino-acids was required for fish of about 2.5 g wet weight. These results are discussed in relation to the known feeding behaviour and food preferences of the wild Dover sole.     

Bacterioplankton composition of the coastal upwelling system of 'Ría de Vigo', NW Spain

Catalysed reported deposition-FISH and clone libraries indicated that Roseobacter , followed by Bacteroidetes , and some gammaproteobacterial groups such as SAR86, dominated the composition of bacterioplankton in Ría de Vigo, NW Spain, in detriment to SAR11 (almost absent in this upwelling ecosystem). Since we sampled four times during the year, we observed pronounced changes in the structure of each bacterioplankton component, particularly for the Roseobacter lineage. We suggest that such variations in the coastal upwelling ecosystem of Ría de Vigo were associated with the characteristic phytoplankton communities of the four different hydrographical situations: winter mixing, spring bloom, summer stratification, and autumn upwelling. We retrieved new sequences among the major marine bacterial lineages, particularly among Roseobacter , SAR11, and especially SAR86. The spring community was dominated by two Roseobacter clades that had previously been related to phytoplankton blooms. In the other seasons, communities with higher diversity than the spring one were detected.     

Elemental Fingerprinting of Mussel Shells to Predict Population Sources and Redistribution Potential in the Gulf of Maine

As the climate warms, species that cannot tolerate changing conditions will only persist if they undergo range shifts. Redistribution ability may be particularly variable for benthic marine species that disperse as pelagic larvae in ocean currents. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, has recently experienced a warming-related range contraction in the southeastern USA and may face limitations to northward range shifts within the Gulf of Maine where dominant coastal currents flow southward. Thus, blue mussels might be especially vulnerable to warming, and understanding dispersal patterns is crucial given the species'' relatively long planktonic larval period (>1 month). To determine whether trace elemental “fingerprints” incorporated in mussel shells could be used to identify population sources (i.e. collection locations), we assessed the geographic variation in shell chemistry of blue mussels collected from seven populations between Cape Cod, Massachusetts and northern Maine. Across this ∼500 km of coastline, we were able to successfully predict population sources for over two-thirds of juvenile individuals, with almost 80% of juveniles classified within one site of their collection location and 97% correctly classified to region. These results indicate that significant differences in elemental signatures of mussel shells exist between open-coast sites separated by ∼50 km throughout the Gulf of Maine. Our findings suggest that elemental “fingerprinting” is a promising approach for predicting redistribution potential of the blue mussel, an ecologically and economically important species in the region.