Bundles of ecosystem (dis)services and multifunctionality across European landscapes

We present an assessment of the spatial pattern of ecosystem services (ES) associations across Europe based on models of eleven ES and one dis-service, mapped at the extent of twenty-seven Member States of the European Union (EU27) on a 1 km² grid. We isolated three clusters of cells sharing common features in multi-ES supply associated with the main land-use-land-cover types such as forests and agricultural lands. Confronting these spatial patterns with biophysical and socio-economic drivers revealed two strong gradients structuring European ES bundles, climate and land use intensity. Variations in the diversity of ES bundles provided across administrative units (NUTS 2), quantified by the Shannon diversity index, tend to be higher in forested regions (e.g. SE Romania) and in the mosaic landscapes in the central EU27 (from eastern France to Austria). Lower diversity prevails in areas of homogeneous terrain and land use in north-western Europe (e.g. Western France). Our findings illustrate that ES trade-offs and bundles cannot be reduced to land use conflicts but also depend on climate and, for a specific bundle, to biodiversity.     

Applying ecological site concepts and state‐and‐transition models to a grazed riparian rangeland

Ecological sites and state‐and‐transition models are useful tools for generating and testing hypotheses about drivers of vegetation composition in rangeland systems. These models have been widely implemented in upland rangelands, but comparatively, little attention has been given to developing ecological site concepts for rangeland riparian areas, and additional environmental criteria may be necessary to classify riparian ecological sites. Between 2013 and 2016, fifteen study reaches on five creeks were studied at Tejon Ranch in southern California. Data were collected to describe the relationship between riparian vegetation composition, environmental variables, and livestock management; and to explore the utility of ecological sites and state‐and‐transition models for describing riparian vegetation communities and for creating hypotheses about drivers of vegetation change. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to classify the environmental and vegetation data (15 stream reaches × 4 years) into two ecological sites and eight community phases that comprised three vegetation states. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to determine the influence of abiotic site variables, annual precipitation, and cattle activity on vegetation clusters. Channel slope explained the greatest amount of variation in vegetation clusters; however, soil texture, geology, watershed size, and elevation were also selected as important predictors of vegetation composition. The classification tree built with this limited set of abiotic predictor variables explained 90% of the observed vegetation clusters. Cattle grazing and annual precipitation were not linked to qualitative differences in vegetation. Abiotic variables explained almost all of the observed riparian vegetation dynamics—and the divisions in the CART analysis corresponded roughly to the ecological sites—suggesting that ecological sites are well‐suited for understanding and predicting change in this highly variable system. These findings support continued development of riparian ecological site concepts and state‐and‐transition models to aid decision making for conservation and management of rangeland riparian areas.     

Seeing the forest for its multiple ecosystem services: Indicators for cultural services in heterogeneous forests

The ecosystem service (ES) framework is gaining traction in ecosystem management as a means to recognize the multiple benefits that ecosystems provide. In forested ecosystems, many structural attributes (trees, understory plants and woody debris) create heterogeneous ecosystems that provide numerous ecosystem services, including many that are culturally important. However, application of the ES framework to forest management is challenged by difficulties measuring and comparing multiple ES across diverse and heterogeneous forest conditions. Indicators can help bring the ES approach to forest management by providing a means for accurate ES inventory and mapping. We measured 10 forest ES in contrasting forest types to investigate the effects of past forest harvesting in coastal temperate rainforest of Vancouver Island, BC, Canada. Our objectives were to build a systematic set of ES indicators for coastal temperate forests based on forest structural features, including trees, coarse woody debris, and understory plants. To achieve this, we 1) analyzed field data to compare the effects of forest age (old-growth vs. second-growth) and ecological site conditions (riparian vs. upland forest) on the bundle of ES provided by different forest types; and 2) worked with a local indigenous wood carver to identify attributes of cedar trees (Thuja plicata) essential for traditional uses, including canoe carving. Forest age and forest type had significant and major effects on bundles of ES. Old-growth forests provided three times higher carbon storage, nine times higher wood volume, and eighteen times higher canopy habitat services than recovering forests. Within old-growth forests, the proportion of trees suitable for traditional indigenous wood carving was significantly higher in riparian stands. Yet of 456 trees measured, only 17 were cedar with potential traditional uses. Of those, trees for canoe carving were the least frequent (n = 3), which we identified as large (>110 cm DBH) trees of exceptional quality. In general, old-growth riparian forests were a hotspot of ES, providing for example nearly three times as much carbon storage as old-growth forests on upland sites and 12 times the amount of carbon storage as found in second-growth forests on upland sites. These results indicate that typical inventories of forest ES, which usually generalize across heterogeneity, may oversimplify dramatic variations in ES bundles in forested landscapes. Our novel set of stand-level ES indicators can improve the accuracy of ES assessments, incorporate important cultural ES, and help address the role of landscape heterogeneity in influencing ES.     

Comparison of vascular plant diversity and species composition of coppice and high beech forest in the Banat region,Romania

Abandonment of coppicing is one of the main reasons of diversity decline in European temperate forests. To reverse this trend, coppicing has been reintroduced in several forests, especially in areas of high conservation value. However, empirical information on the effects of coppicing on plant diversity and composition is still scarce. By comparing vegetation data from active coppices and beech-dominated high forests in the Banat region in Romania, we tested the hypothesis that coppices have a higher plant diversity and different plant species composition than high forests. Data were collected in 60 randomly placed phytosociological relevés and were analysed using linear models and multivariate methods. As expected, we found differences in understorey plant composition. Herb species with various environmental demands–sciophytes-(hemi)-heliophytes and grassland species–were more frequent in coppices whereas high forests had more vernal species and sciophytes. Coppices also had slightly greater plant diversity but did not differ in herb species richness. Our results demonstrate that coppicing has a small positive effect on plant diversity but a large effect on species composition. Coppice restoration may be especially beneficial for populations of thermophilous and non-forest species.     

Recent vegetation changes at the high‐latitude tree line ecotone are controlled by geomorphological disturbance,productivity and diversity

Aim We test how productivity, disturbance rate, plant functional composition and species richness gradients control changes in the composition of high‐latitude vegetation during recent climatic warming. Location Northern Fennoscandia, Europe. Methods We resampled tree line ecotone vegetation sites sampled 26 years earlier. To quantify compositional changes, we used generalized linear models to test relationships between compositional changes and environmental gradients. Results Compositional changes in species abundances are positively related to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)‐based estimate of productivity gradient and to geomorphological disturbance. Competitive species in fertile sites show the greatest changes in abundance, opposed to negligible changes in infertile sites. Change in species richness is negatively related to initial richness, whereas geomorphological disturbance has positive effects on change in richness. Few lowland species have moved towards higher elevations. Main conclusions The sensitivity of vegetation to climate change depends on a complex interplay between productivity, physical and biotic disturbances, plant functional composition and richness. Our results suggest that vegetation on productive sites, such as herb‐rich deciduous forests at low altitudes, is more sensitive to climate warming than alpine tundra vegetation where grazing may have strong buffering effects. Geomorphological disturbance promotes vegetation change under climatic warming, whereas high diversity has a stabilizing effect.     

Spatial pattern analysis in forest dynamics: deviation from power law and direction of regeneration waves

Grid-based models have been used to understand spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation height in forests and to analyze spatio-temporal dynamics of the forest regeneration process. In this report, we present two methods of identifying lattice models when spatio-temporal data are given. The first method detects directionality of regeneration waves based on the timing of local disturbance events. The second evaluates the forest pattern by recording the fraction of high and low vegetation areas at multiple spatial scales. We illustrate these methods by applying them to patterns generated using three simple stochastic lattice models: (1) two-state model, distinguishing sites with high and low vegetation, (2) three-state model, in which sites can be in an additional disturbed state, and (3) Shimagare model, which considers a continuous range of states. The combination of the two methods provides efficient means of distinguishing the models. The first method has a more direct ecological meaning, while the second is useful when forest data are limited in time.     

Effects of creation of open vegetation in abandoned terraced paddy fields on carabid beetle assemblages in temperate Japan

Many paddy fields in the mountainous rural areas of Japan have been abandoned since the 1960s, and forests have regenerated on these sites. In a mountainous area on Sado Island, a large number of abandoned paddies were converted into wetlands and open terrestrial vegetation. In this study, we used pitfall traps to examine the effects of the creation of open vegetation on carabid beetle assemblages by investigating 14 sites spanning five vegetation types: six sites in secondary forests (three coppice forests and three 40‐year‐old regenerating forests on abandoned paddies), three each in clear‐cuts and paddy levees, and two in grasslands. The 14 study sites were clearly separated into two groups different in the species composition of carabid beetles: secondary forest and grassland‐levee groups. The species composition of two clear‐cut sites was similar to that of secondary forests, whereas that of the remaining one clear‐cut site was similar to that of grasslands. Analyses of species responses showed various habitat preferences, e.g., for only coppice forests, for two types of secondary forests, for secondary forests and clear‐cuts, for clear‐cuts and grasslands, and for grasslands or levees, or no clear preference. There were no characteristic species in the regenerating forests. These results suggest that the 40‐year‐old regenerating forests may sustain only a limited subset of the carabid fauna found in coppice forests and that the creation of open vegetation in the abandoned paddies enhances carabid diversity at the landscape level by raising β diversity among the different vegetation types.     

Reconstructed natural versus potential natural vegetation in vegetation mapping - a discussion of concepts

Reconstruction mapping of the natural (primary) vegetation of intensively cultivated land is based on: (1) classification of actually existing remains of natural or near-natural plant communities as mapping units; (2) delimitation of their habitat types; (3) detection of correlations between vegetation units and habitat types. Natural plant communities thus serve as indicators of abiotic habitat conditions. Reconstruction mapping is based on the extrapolation of the potential distribution of individual vegetation units to sites of similar habitat types where the natural vegetation does not exist any more. The same procedure is used for mapping the potential natural vegetation. Both types of natural vegetation maps are identical on sites where the abiotic natural habitat conditions (relief, geological substratum, climate, water regime, soils) remain practically unchanged. On sites where the natural habitat conditions have been considerably changed by man, e.g. in areas with superficial coal mining (complete destruction of the landscape, removal of soil cover, creation of large slag heaps) or in towns, no natural (primary) vegetation exists. This causes difficulties in the hypothetical concept of the potential natural vegetation and its definition. In contrast, in such sites reconstruction vegetation mapping uses the extrapolation of mapping units of the primary vegetation to the original natural habitat conditions.     

Ecosystem response to removal of exotic riparian shrubs and a transition to upland vegetation

Understanding plant community change over time is essential for managing important ecosystems such as riparian areas. This study analyzed historic vegetation using soil seed banks and the effects of riparian shrub removal treatments and channel incision on ecosystem and plant community dynamics in Canyon de Chelly National Monument, Arizona. We focused on how seeds, nutrients, and ground water influence the floristic composition of post-treatment vegetation and addressed three questions: (1) How does pre-treatment soil seed bank composition reflect post-treatment vegetation composition? (2) How does shrub removal affect post-treatment riparian vegetation composition, seed rain inputs, and ground water dynamics? and (3) Is available soil nitrogen increased near dead Russian olive plants following removal and does this influence post-treatment vegetation? We analyzed seed bank composition across the study area, analyzed differences in vegetation, ground water levels, and seed rain between control, cut-stump and whole-plant removal areas, and compared soil nitrogen and vegetation near removed Russian olive to areas lacking Russian olive. The soil seed bank contained more riparian plants, more native and fewer exotic plants than the extant vegetation. Both shrub removal methods decreased exotic plant cover, decreased tamarisk and Russian olive seed inputs, and increased native plant cover after 2 years. Neither method increased ground water levels. Soil near dead Russian olive trees indicated a short-term increase in soil nitrogen following plant removal but did not influence vegetation composition compared to areas without Russian olive. Following tamarisk and Russian olive removal, our study sites were colonized by upland plant species. Many western North American rivers have tamarisk and Russian olive on floodplains abandoned by channel incision, river regulation or both. Our results are widely applicable to sites where drying has occurred and vegetation establishment following shrub removal is likely to be by upland species.     

Diversity of forest vegetation across a strong gradient of climatic continentality: Western Sayan Mountains, southern Siberia

Southern Siberian mountain ranges encompass strong climatic contrasts from the relatively oceanic northern foothills to strongly continental intermountain basins in the south. Landscape-scale climatic differences create vegetation patterns, which are analogous to the broad-scale vegetation zonation over large areas of northern Eurasia. In their southern, continental areas, these mountains harbour forest types which potentially resemble the full-glacial forests recently reconstructed for Central Europe. To identify forest vegetation–environment relationships in the southern Siberian mountain ranges, forest vegetation of the Western Sayan Mountains was sampled on a 280 km transect running from the northern foothills with oceanic climatic features to the continental Central Tuvinian Basin in the south. Based on the species composition, vegetation was classified into hemiboreal forests, occurring at drier and summer-warm sites with high-pH soil, and taiga, occurring at wetter, summer-cool sites with acidic soil. Hemiboreal forests included Betula pendula-Pinus sylvestris mesic forest, Larix sibirica dry forest and Pinus sylvestris dry forest. Taiga included Abies sibirica-Betula pendula wet forest, Abies sibirica-Pinus sibirica mesic forest and Pinus sibirica-Picea obovata continental forest. Hemiboreal forests were richer in vascular plant species, while taiga was richer in ground-dwelling cryptogams. Vegetation–environment relationships were analysed by indirect and direct ordination. Winter and summer temperatures and precipitation exerted a dominant influence on species composition. Soil pH was also an important correlate of species composition, but this factor itself was probably controlled by precipitation. At a more local scale, the main source of variation in species composition was topography, producing landscape patterns of contrasting plant communities on slopes of different aspects and valley bottoms. The response of tree species to major environmental factors was expressed with Huisman–Olff–Fresco models. Larix sibirica appeared to be most resistant to drought and winter frosts, Pinus sibirica was adapted to low temperatures both in winter and summer, and Picea obovata had an intermediate response to climate. Betula pendula, Pinus sylvestris and Populus tremula were associated with the warmest sites with intermediate precipitation, while Abies sibirica was the most moisture-demanding species, sensitive to deep winter frosts.     

Are long‐unburnt eucalypt forest patches important for the conservation of plant species diversity?

Question: Are long‐unburnt patches of eucalypt forest important for maintaining floristic diversity? Location: Eucalyptus forests of southeastern New South Wales, Australia. Methods: Data from 976 sites representing a range of fire history from three major vegetation formations – shrubby dry sclerophyll forest (SF), grassy dry SF and wet SF – were analysed. Generalized linear models were used to examine changes in species richness with increasing time since wildfire and analysis of similarities to examine changes in community composition. Chi‐squared tests were conducted to examine the distribution of individual species across four time since fire categories. Results: Plant species relationships to fire varied between the three formations. Shrubby dry SF supported lower plant species richness with increasing time since wildfire and this was associated with shifts in community composition. Grassy dry SF showed significant shifts in community composition and species richness in relation to time, with a peak in plant species richness 20–30 yr post fire (either prescribed fire or wildfire). Wet SF increased in species richness until 10–20 yr post wildfire then displayed a general declining trend. Species richness in each vegetation type was not related to the fire frequencies and fire intervals observed in this study. Conclusions: Long‐unburnt (30–50 yr post wildfire) forests appeared to play a minor role in the maintenance of plant species diversity in dry forest systems, although this was more significant in wet forests. Maintenance of a range of fire ages within each vegetation formation will assist in maintaining floristic diversity within regions.     

中国南部亚热带森林地表植被动态变化

系统研究了南方5个亚热带森林生态系统地表植被的动态变化情况.研究方法是:在每个研究区域内,按照地形梯度分别布设50个1m2 的样方,记录样方内所有物种的频度及相关的环境变量,5个研究区域共设250个样方,每个样方分别调查两次.通过单元及多元统计方法分析表明:维管植物物种频度在一个区域明显下降,另二个区域显著增加;苔藓物种频度在一个区域有明显下降,另一个区域明显增加;苔藓物种数量在3个区域显著增加,另二个区域显著下降;维管植物物种数量显著增加在二个区域;物种组成沿着第一个植被梯度轴DCA 1没有显著变化,沿着第二个植被梯度轴DCA 2在二个区域有显著变化.综合分析表明,苔藓对气候变化及其波动反映敏感,是较好的气候变化及气候波动生物指示因子,而管植物数量及频度的变化没有明显证据显示与土壤酸化和大气污染有紧密关系.     

Methane indicator values for peatlands: a comparison of species and functional groups

Previous studies have shown a correspondence between the abundance of particular plant species and methane flux. Here, we apply multivariate analyses, and weighted averaging, to assess the suitability of vegetation composition as a predictor of methane flux. We developed a functional classification of the vegetation, in terms of a number of plant traits expected to influence methane production and transport, and compared this with a purely taxonomic classification at species level and higher. We applied weighted averaging and indirect and direct ordination approaches to six sites in the United Kingdom, and found good relationships between methane flux and vegetation composition (classified both taxonomically and functionally). Plant species and functional groups also showed meaningful responses to management and experimental treatments. In addition to the United Kingdom, we applied the functional group classification across different geographical regions (Canada and the Netherlands) to assess the generality of the method. Again, the relationship appeared good at the site level, suggesting some general applicability of the functional classification. The method seems to have the potential for incorporation into large‐scale (national) greenhouse gas accounting programmes (in relation to peatland condition/management) using vegetation mapping schemes. The results presented here strongly suggest that robust predictive models can be derived using plant species data (for use in national‐scale studies). For trans‐national‐scale studies, where the taxonomic assemblage of vegetation differs widely between study sites, a functional classification of plant species data provides an appropriate basis for predictive models of methane flux.     

Characterization of vegetation in an Australian open forest community affected by cinnamon fungus (shape Phytophthora cinnamomi): implications for faunal habitat quality

Phytophthora cinnamomi (cinnamon fungus) is a pathogenic soil fungus which infects plant communities such as open forests, woodlands and heathlands in the south-eastern and south-western corners of Australia, leading to devastating effects upon both structural and floristic features of these plant communities. This study undertaken in open forest in the Brisbane Ranges, south-eastern Australia, sought to characterize two study areas using visual classification and several ordination techniques. Additionally, sites were examined for differences in vegetation composition relating to P. cinnamomi infection, and how these may relate to site habitat quality for resident fauna. This characterization had a high degree of conformity (90% to 96%) between the original visual classification and several ordination methods used. Differences in the cover of understorey vegetation including both low and tall shrubs, and the grass-tree Xanthorrhoea australis were recorded between uninfected and post-infected sites, however the cover of litter or bare ground did not infer infection status. There were no consistent significant differences in projective crown cover of Eucalyptus spp. between uninfected and infected sites, nor in the number of hollows suitable for den or nest sites for arboreal mammals and birds. Hence, the impact of P. cinnamomi upon faunal habitat quality at the sites was considered more likely to relate to changes in ground level vegetation structure than to effects of the pathogen on the dominant Eucalyptus species. Based on the small proportion of sites with detectable isolates of the pathogen (25%), and the slow rate of movement of the disease front during this study (1 to 5 m/3 yr), the current state of disease progression appeared relatively quiescent compared to infestations previously documented in the same area a decade or two earlier.     

Understory vegetation as an indicator for floodplain forest restoration in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley,U.S.A.

In the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MAV), complete alteration of river‐floodplain hydrology allowed for widespread conversion of forested bottomlands to intensive agriculture, resulting in nearly 80% forest loss. Governmental programs have attempted to restore forest habitat and functions within this altered landscape by the methods of tree planting (afforestation) and local hydrologic enhancement on reclaimed croplands. Early assessments identified factors that influenced whether planting plus tree colonization could establish an overstory community similar to natural bottomland forests. The extent to which afforested sites develop typical understory vegetation has not been evaluated, yet understory composition may be indicative of restored site conditions. As part of a broad study quantifying the ecosystem services gained from restoration efforts, understory vegetation was compared between 37 afforested sites and 26 mature forest sites. Differences in vegetation attributes for species growth forms, wetland indicator classes, and native status were tested with univariate analyses; floristic composition data were analyzed by multivariate techniques. Understory vegetation of restoration sites was generally hydrophytic, but species composition differed from that of mature bottomland forest because of young successional age and differing responses of plant growth forms. Attribute and floristic variation among restoration sites was related to variation in canopy development and local wetness conditions, which in turn reflected both intrinsic site features and outcomes of restoration practices. Thus, understory vegetation is a useful indicator of functional progress in floodplain forest restoration.     

四川岷山火溪河地区人为干扰后的植被组成及分布

以平武县地形图、植被图、野外植被调查结果为数据源制作研究区植被图和数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model,DEM),在Arcview GIS平台下通过植被分类和图层叠加分析法,研究了人为干扰后植被的组成及植被类型在主要地形梯度上的分布特征。结果表明:(1)受人为干扰特别是森林采伐活动影响,研究区针阔混交林消失,针叶林面积缩小,阔叶林和灌丛面积增加。(2)植被类型在海拔梯度上分布规律性明显;除农田外,其它植被类型在坡度上的面积比例与研究区面积在各坡度段所占比例很相似;针叶林、阔叶林、农田、灌丛对坡向有明显选择性。(3)人为干扰活动改变了研究区植被类型及其面积比重,并使植被在海拔段上的分布带有明显人类干扰的痕迹。     

The role of soil pH in linking groundwater flow and plant species density in boreal forest landscapes

In hilly boreal landscapes topography governs groundwater flow which strongly influences soil development, and thus vegetation composition. Soil pH is known to correlate well with plant species density and composition, but in boreal forests this relationship has been little studied. Previously, we successfully used a topography-based hydrological index, the topographical wetness index (TWI), as an approximation of the variation in groundwater flow to predict local plant species density in a boreal forest landscape. Data on species indicator values demonstrated that soil pH can be an important soil variable linking groundwater flow and plant species density. In the present paper we explore this link by relating measured soil pH to species numbers of vascular plants and TWI in 200-m² plots within two boreal forest landscapes, differing in average soil pH. The two landscapes showed almost identical relationships between plant species number and soil pH, implying that this relationship is robust. The landscapes also had similar relationships between soil pH and TWI as well as between plant species number and TWI except at high TWI values, which indicate groundwater discharge areas. In these areas soil pH and plant species numbers were higher in the high-pH landscape at any given TWI value. We conclude that for predictive mapping of the species density of vascular plants in boreal forests, soil pH is a major factor. However, TWI as a measure of groundwater flow is a practical alternative predictor.     

Regional vegetation mapping in Australia: a case study in the practical use of statistical modelling

Conservation evaluation of large areas ( > 10 000 km²) in Australia requires detailed mapping of vegetation types. Predicting the original vegetation cover of extensive cleared areas in an explicit, consistent and repeatable manner necessitates the use of statistical modelling. This paper describes an integrated approach to vegetation mapping in a region of New South Wales, Australia. The approach uses separate statistical models for each tree and shrub species to predict the vegetation composition in each grid cell in a geographic information system (GIS). Allocation of these grid cells to communities allows communities that no longer exist in the remaining remnants of woodland to be defined. Examples of use of this information for management are presented. This paper addresses the practical considerations which constrain the way statistical modelling can be used for vegetation mapping in an applied project. Constraints include: (1) data availability (use of sampling to fill gaps in existing data), (2) the effects of cover abundance values, (3) availability of GIS predictors, (4) data management, (5) current generalised additive model methods and (6) prediction methods. Careful attention to the practicality of all components of a vegetation mapping study is essential if modern methods are to be applied in regional studies which must provide functional products for land managers with limited resources, skills and finances at their disposal.     

Fire severity mediates climate‐driven shifts in understorey community composition of black spruce stands of interior Alaska

Question: How do pre‐fire conditions (community composition and environmental characteristics) and climate‐driven disturbance characteristics (fire severity) affect post‐fire community composition in black spruce stands? Location: Northern boreal forest, interior Alaska. Methods: We compared plant community composition and environmental stand characteristics in 14 black spruce stands before and after multiple, naturally occurring wildfires. We used a combination of vegetation table sorting, univariate (ANOVA, paired t‐tests), and multivariate (detrended correspondence analysis) statistics to determine the impact of fire severity and site moisture on community composition, dominant species and growth forms. Results: Severe wildfires caused a 50% reduction in number of plant species in our study sites. The largest species loss, and therefore the greatest change in species composition, occurred in severely burned sites. This was due mostly to loss of non‐vascular species (mosses and lichens) and evergreen shrubs. New species recruited most abundantly to severely burned sites, contributing to high species turnover on these sites. As well as the strong effect of fire severity, pre‐fire and post‐fire mineral soil pH had an effect on post‐fire vegetation patterns, suggesting a legacy effect of site acidity. In contrast, pre‐fire site moisture, which was a strong determinant of pre‐fire community composition, showed no relationship with post‐fire community composition. Site moisture was altered by fire, due to changes in permafrost, and therefore post‐fire site moisture overrode pre‐fire site moisture as a strong correlate. Conclusions: In the rapidly warming climate of interior Alaska, changes in fire severity had more effect on post‐fire community composition than did environmental factors (moisture and pH) that govern landscape patterns of unburned vegetation. This suggests that climate change effects on future community composition of black spruce forests may be mediated more strongly by fire severity than by current landscape patterns. Hence, models that represent the effects of climate change on boreal forests could improve their accuracy by including dynamic responses to fire disturbance.     

Probabilistic modeling and mapping of plant indicator species in a Northeast Oregon industrial forest,USA

Managing forest ecosystems for sustainable, multiple use requires forest resource managers to understand and predict how plant species composition and distribution varies across environmental gradients and responds to landscape scale disturbances. This study demonstrates predictive vegetation modeling and mapping for a Northeast Oregon forest using non-parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR) with presence/absence data for the species Clintonia uniflora (CLUN) and a set of stand structural and raster-based predictor variables. NPMR is a flexible probability modeling system that can find the best subset of habitat factors influencing species occurrence. NPMR was compared with logistic regression (LR) by building reduced models from variables selected as best by NPMR and full models from variables identified as significant with a forward stepwise process and further manual testing. log β was used to select models with the highest predictive capability. NPMR models were less complex and had higher predictive capability than LR for all modeling approaches. Spatial coordinates were among the most powerful predictors and the modeling approach with physiographic and stand structural variables together was the most improved relative to the average frequency of occurrence. GIS probability maps produced with the application of the physiographic models showed good spatial congruence between high probability values and plots that contained CLUN. NPMR proved to be a reliable probability modeling and mapping tool that could be used as the analytical link between monitoring and quantifying the status and trends of vegetation resources.