Obesity persistence and duration dependence: Evidence from a cohort of US adults (1985–2010)

This study investigates dynamic patterns of obesity persistence and identifies the determinants of obesity-spell exits and re-entries. We utilize longitudinal data from the NLSY79 covering the period 1985–2010. Non-parametric techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between exit from obesity and spell duration. Multivariate discrete hazard models are also estimated, taking into account duration dependence and observed and time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. In all cases, the probability of exiting obesity is inversely related to the duration of the obesity spell. Without controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, the probability of exit after one wave in obesity is 31.5 per cent; it is reduced to 3.8 per cent after seven or more waves. When time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account, the estimated probabilities are slightly larger and broadly similar (36.8 and 10.3, respectively), which suggests that the identified negative duration dependence is not primarily due to composition effects. The obtained results indicate that public health interventions targeting the newly obese may be particularly effective at reducing incidence of long durations of obesity.     

Telomere attrition and growth: a life‐history framework and case study in common terns

The relationship between growth and age‐specific telomere length, as a proxy of somatic state, is increasingly investigated, but observed patterns vary and a predictive framework is lacking. We outline expectations based on the assumption that telomere maintenance is costly and argue that individual heterogeneity in resource acquisition is predicted to lead to positive covariance between growth and telomere length. However, canalization of resource allocation to the trait with a larger effect on fitness, rendering that trait relatively invariant, can cause the absence of covariance. In a case study of common tern (Sterna hirundo) chicks, in which hatching order is the main determinant of variation in resource acquisition within broods, we find that body mass, but not telomere length or attrition, varies with hatching order. Moreover, body mass and growth positively predict survival to fledging, whereas telomere length and attrition do not. Using a novel statistical method to quantify standardized variance in plasticity, we estimate between‐individual variation in telomere attrition to be only 12% of that of growth. Consistent with the relative invariance of telomere attrition, we find no correlation between age‐specific body mass or growth and telomere attrition. We suggest that common tern chicks prioritize investment in long‐term somatic state (as indicated by canalization of telomere maintenance) over immediate survival benefits of growth as part of an efficient brood reduction strategy that benefits the parents. As such, interspecific variation in the growth–telomere length relationship may be explained by the extent to which parents benefit from rapid mortality of excess offspring.     

The business cycle,health behavior,and chronic disease: A study over Three decades

The effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on individual health remains highly debated. We estimate the effect of the business cycle on health and health behavior in the U.S. using the NLSY79 panel data for 11,406 respondents between 1979 and 2014. Most of our survey respondents have no chronic illness in 1979, and develop these conditions during the sample period. This allows us to estimate the true effect of economic fluctuation on the likelihood of developing chronic conditions. The results indicate a considerable difference in the cyclic variation of chronic diseases. After controlling for innate individual characteristics such as family health history, and unobserved regional characteristics, we find that obesity decreases during economic downturns, while diabetes, hypertension, and congestive heart failure increase. Sub-sample analyses show that Blacks are more likely to develop diabetes and hypertension and are less likely to develop obesity during economic downturns than other racial groups. The incidence of obesity declines during recessions for women, while males are more likely to develop diabetes. Income loss, particularly among Blacks, and lack of change in physical activity mediate these differential effects.     

Phylogenetic analysis of the ecology and evolution of mammalian sleep

The amount of time asleep varies greatly in mammals, from 3 h in the donkey to 20 h in the armadillo. Previous comparative studies have suggested several functional explanations for interspecific variation in both the total time spent asleep and in rapid-eye movement (REM) or "quiet" (non-REM) sleep. In support of specific functional benefits of sleep, these studies reported correlations between time in specific sleep states (NREM or REM) and brain size, metabolic rate, and developmental variables. Here we show that estimates of sleep duration are significantly influenced by the laboratory conditions under which data are collected and that, when analyses are limited to data collected under more standardized procedures, traditional functional explanations for interspecific variation in sleep durations are no longer supported. Specifically, we find that basal metabolic rate correlates negatively rather than positively with sleep quotas, and that neither adult nor neonatal brain mass correlates positively with REM or NREM sleep times. These results contradict hypotheses that invoke energy conservation, cognition, and development as drivers of sleep variation. Instead, the negative correlations of both sleep states with basal metabolic rate and diet are consistent with trade-offs between sleep and foraging time. In terms of predation risk, both REM and NREM sleep quotas are reduced when animals sleep in more exposed sites, whereas species that sleep socially sleep less. Together with the fact that REM and NREM sleep quotas correlate strongly with each other, these results suggest that variation in sleep primarily reflects ecological constraints acting on total sleep time, rather than the independent responses of each sleep state to specific selection pressures. We propose that, within this ecological framework, interspecific variation in sleep duration might be compensated by variation in the physiological intensity of sleep.     

Genetic variation for phenotypically invariant traits detected in teosinte: implications for the evolution of novel forms.

How new discrete states of morphological traits evolve is poorly understood. One possibility is that single-gene changes underlie the evolution of new discrete character states and that evolution is dependent on the occurrence of new single-gene mutations. Another possibility is that multiple-gene changes are required to elevate an individual or population above a threshold required to produce the new character state. A prediction of the latter model is that genetic variation for the traits should exist in natural populations in the absence of phenotypic variation. To test this idea, we studied traits that are phenotypically invariant within teosinte and for which teosinte is discretely different from its near relative, maize. By employing a QTL mapping strategy to analyze the progeny of a testcross between an F(1) of two teosintes and a maize inbred line, we identified cryptic genetic variation in teosinte for traits that are invariant in teosinte. We argue that such cryptic genetic variation can contribute to the evolution of novelty when reconfigured to exceed the threshold necessary for phenotypic expression or by acting to modify or stabilize the effects of major mutations.     

Is inconsistent reporting of self-assessed health persistent and systematic? Evidence from the UKHLS

In this paper, we investigate whether individuals provide consistent responses to self-assessed health (SAH) questions in the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS), and the potential implications for empirical research in case of inconsistent reporting behaviour. We capitalise on an opportunity in the UKHLS, asking respondents the same SAH question twice: with a self-completion and an open interview mode, within the same household interview over four waves. We estimate multivariate models to explore which individual characteristics are systematically relevant for the likelihood and frequency of inconsistent reporting. About 11–24% of those reported a particular SAH category in the self-completion reported inconsistently in the open interview. The probability of inconsistency is systematically associated with individual’s demographics, education, income, employment status, cognitive and non-cognitive skills. The same characteristics also predict the frequency of inconsistent reporting across four UKHLS waves. Analysis of the implications of reporting inconsistencies shows no impact of SAH measurement on the association between income and health. A set of dimensions of people’s physiological and biological health, captured using biomarkers, is associated equally with both SAH measures, suggesting that the interview mode does not play a role in the relationship between SAH and more objective health measures.     

The socioeconomic gradient in child health and noncognitive skills: Evidence from the Czech Republic

We investigate the presence of a socioeconomic status (SES) gradient in children’s health and noncognitive skill development, and its evolution with child age using cohort data from the Czech Republic. We show that family SES are positively associated with better child health. These effects start to emerge at age 3 and are persistent for all subsequent ages. We find a modest strengthening of the gradient as the children grow older. Similarly, at the lowest distribution of average family income, children lag in their noncognitive skills. We find evidence that children enter school with substantial differences in noncognitive skill endowments based on family SES. This correlation persists when controlling for poor health at birth, the roles of specific and chronic health problems, housing conditions, and partner characteristics. Maternal health status explains some of the association between family income and child noncognitive skills. We account for the endogeniety of SES and non-linearities in measures.     

Epistasis Creates Invariant Sites and Modulates the Rate of Molecular Evolution

Invariant sites are a common feature of amino acid sequence evolution. The presence of invariant sites is frequently attributed to the need to preserve function through site-specific conservation of amino acid residues. Amino acid substitution models without a provision for invariant sites often fit the data significantly worse than those that allow for an excess of invariant sites beyond those predicted by models that only incorporate rate variation among sites (e.g., a Gamma distribution). An alternative is epistasis between sites to preserve residue interactions that can create invariant sites. Through computer-simulated sequence evolution, we evaluated the relative effects of site-specific preferences and site-site couplings in the generation of invariant sites and the modulation of the rate of molecular evolution. In an analysis of ten major families of protein domains with diverse sequence and functional properties, we find that the negative selection imposed by epistasis creates many more invariant sites than site-specific residue preferences alone. Further, epistasis plays an increasingly larger role in creating invariant sites over longer evolutionary periods. Epistasis also dictates rates of domain evolution over time by exerting significant additional purifying selection to preserve site couplings. These patterns illuminate the mechanistic role of epistasis in the processes underlying observed site invariance and evolutionary rates.     

The Calcium Sensitivity of Individual Secretory Vesicles Is Invariant with the Rate of Calcium Delivery

Differences in the calcium sensitivity of individual secretory vesicles can explain a defining feature of calcium-regulated exocytosis, a graded response to calcium. The role of the time dependence of calcium delivery in defining the observed differences in the calcium sensitivity of sea urchin egg secretory vesicles in vitro was examined. The calcium sensitivity of individual secretory vesicles (i.e., the distribution of calcium thresholds) is invariant over a range of calcium delivery rates from faster than micromolar per millisecond to slower than micromolar per second. Any specific calcium concentration above threshold triggers subpopulations of vesicles to fuse, and the size of these subpopulations is independent of the time course required to reach that calcium concentration. All evidence supports the hypothesis that the magnitude of the free calcium is the single controlling variable that determines the fraction of vesicles that fuse, and that this fraction is established before the application of calcium. Submaximal responses to calcium cannot be attributed to alterations in the calcium sensitivity of individual secretory vesicles arising from the temporal properties of the calcium delivery. Models that attempt to explain the cessation of fusion using changes in the distribution of calcium thresholds arising from the rate of calcium delivery and/or adaptation are not applicable to this system, and thus cannot be general.     

Density-dependent processes in the life history of fishes: evidence from laboratory populations of zebrafish Danio rerio

Population regulation is fundamental to the long-term persistence of populations and their responses to harvesting, habitat modification, and exposure to toxic chemicals. In fish and other organisms with complex life histories, regulation may involve density dependence in different life-stages and vital rates. We studied density dependence in body growth and mortality through the life-cycle of laboratory populations of zebrafish Danio rerio. When feed input was held constant at population-level (leading to resource limitation), body growth was strongly density-dependent in the late juvenile and adult phases of the life-cycle. Density dependence in mortality was strong during the early juvenile phase but declined thereafter and virtually ceased prior to maturation. Provision of feed in proportion to individual requirements (easing resource limitation) removed density dependence in growth and substantially reduced density dependence in mortality, thus indicating that 'bottom-up' effects act on growth as well as mortality, but most strongly on growth. Both growth and mortality played an important role in population regulation, with density-dependent growth having the greater impact on population biomass while mortality had the greatest impact on numbers. We demonstrate a clear ontogenic pattern of change in density-dependent processes within populations of a very small (maximum length 5 mm) fish, maintained in constant homogeneous laboratory conditions. The patterns are consistent with those distilled from studies on wild fish populations, indicating the presence of broad ontogenic patterns in density-dependent processes that are invariant to maximum body size and hold in homogeneous laboratory, as well as complex natural environments.     

When being alive implies being safe: variation in mortality rates can cause oviposition selectivity to increase with age

Optimal behavioural decisions are expected to depend on various state variables, such as physiological condition or age. In insects, empirical evidence of the effect of adult age on oviposition selectivity is mixed. Consistently, optimality models – which primarily incorporate the effects of egg load and senescence – fail to provide universal predictions. Here we propose that spatial variation in mortality rates creates an additional mechanism able to select for an increase in selectivity with age. Females can be selected to use the fact of having reached an advanced age as a cue of low mortality rates in their environment. Older females may thus be less time-limited, and can afford for more careful host selection. This is because variation in mortality rates can cause a positive correlation between individual age, and expected residual life span. We present a simulation model that formalises the verbal argument presented above, and discuss the findings in the more general context of the dependence of reproductive output on age.     

Dietary choices are influenced by genotype,mating status,and sex in Drosophila melanogaster

Mating causes many changes in physiology, behavior, and gene expression in a wide range of organisms. These changes are predicted to be sex specific, influenced by the divergent reproductive roles of the sexes. In female insects, mating is associated with an increase in egg production which requires high levels of nutritional input with direct consequences for the physiological needs of individual females. Consequently, females alter their nutritional acquisition in line with the physiological demands imposed by mating. Although much is known about the female mating‐induced nutritional response, far less is known about changes in males. In addition, it is unknown whether variation between genotypes translates into variation in dietary behavioral responses. Here we examine mating‐induced shifts in male and female dietary preferences across genotypes of Drosophila melanogaster. We find sex‐ and genotype‐specific effects on both the quantity and quality of the chosen diet. These results contribute to our understanding of sex‐specific metabolism and reveal genotypic variation that influences responses to physiological demands.     

The protein amide <Superscript>1</Superscript>H<Superscript>N</Superscript> chemical shift temperature coefficient reflects thermal expansion of the N–H···O=C hydrogen bond

The protein amide ¹H^N chemical shift temperature coefficient can be determined with high accuracy by recording spectra at different temperatures, but the physical mechanism responsible for this temperature dependence is not well understood. In this work, we find that this coefficient strongly correlates with the temperature coefficient of the through-hydrogen-bond coupling, ^3hJ_NC′, based on NMR measurements of protein GB3. Parallel tempering molecular dynamics simulation suggests that the hydrogen bond distance variation at different temperatures/replicas is largely responsible for the ¹H^N chemical shift temperature dependence, from which an empirical equation is proposed to predict the hydrogen bond thermal expansion coefficient, revealing responses of individual hydrogen bonds to temperature changes. Different expansion patterns have been observed for various networks formed by β strands.     

Dose–response relationship from longitudinal data with response‐dependent dose modification using likelihood methods

In some clinical trials or clinical practice, the therapeutic agent is administered repeatedly, and doses are adjusted in each patient based on repeatedly measured continuous responses, to maintain the response levels in a target range. Because a lower dose tends to be selected for patients with a better outcome, simple summarizations may wrongly show a better outcome for the lower dose, producing an incorrect dose–response relationship. In this study, we consider the dose–response relationship under these situations. We show that maximum‐likelihood estimates are consistent without modeling the dose‐modification mechanisms when the selection of the dose as a time‐dependent covariate is based only on observed, but not on unobserved, responses, and measurements are generated based on administered doses. We confirmed this property by performing simulation studies under several dose‐modification mechanisms. We examined an autoregressive linear mixed effects model. The model represents profiles approaching each patient's asymptote when identical doses are repeatedly administered. The model takes into account the previous dose history and provides a dose–response relationship of the asymptote as a summary measure. We also examined a linear mixed effects model assuming all responses are measured at steady state. In the simulation studies, the estimates of both the models were unbiased under the dose modification based on observed responses, but biased under the dose modification based on unobserved responses. In conclusion, the maximum‐likelihood estimates of the dose–response relationship are consistent under the dose modification based only on observed responses.     

Developmental plasticity and maternal effects of reproductive characteristics in the frog,Bombina orientalis

Summary Life history theory suggests that reproductive characteristics such as ovum size and clutch size should be well buffered against vararies of the environment. However, studies which demonstrate environmental sensitivity of reproductive characteristics are increasing in number, as are studies which find that maternal effects are responsible for much of the variation in developmental and growth rates in embryonic and larval fish and amphibians. The data reported here demonstrate that the environment, in terms of temperature and food availability that a specific individual encounters during vitellogenesis, exerts a strong influence on both egg size and number. Warmer temperatures and less food decrease ovum size, while colder temperatures and less food decrease clutch size. The variation in ovum size that is induced by the environment can exert a strong influence on variation in offspring development and growth and serve as an excellent model for studies on the evolution of developmental plasticity.     

Social science methods for twins data: integrating causality, endowments, and heritability

Twins have been extensively used in economics, sociology, and behavioral genetics to investigate the role of genetic endowments on a broad range of social, demographic, and economic outcomes. However, the focus in these literatures has been distinct.: The economic literature has been primarily concerned with the need to control for unobserved endowments--including as an important subset, genetic endowments--in analyses that attempt to establish the impact of one variable, often schooling, on a variety of economic, demographic, and health outcomes. Behavioral genetic analyses have mostly been concerned with decomposing the variation in the outcomes of interest into genetic, shared environmental, and non-shared environmental components, with recent multivariate analyses investigating the contributions of genes and the environment to the correlation and causation between variables. Despite the fact that twins studies and the recognition of the role of endowments are central to both of these literatures, they have mostly evolved independently. In this paper we develop formally the relationship between the economic and behavioral genetic approaches to the analyses of twins, and we develop an integrative approach that combines the identification of causal effects, which dominates the economic literature, with the decomposition of variances and covariances into genetic and environmental factors that are the primary goal of behavioral genetic approaches. We apply this integrative ACE-beta approach to an illustrative investigation of the impact of schooling on several demographic outcomes such as fertility and nuptiality and health.     

Does better education mitigate risky health behavior? A mendelian randomization study

Education and risky health behaviors are strongly negatively correlated. Education may affect health behaviors by enabling healthier choices through higher disposable income, increasing information about the harmful effects of risky health behaviors, or altering time preferences. Alternatively, the observed negative correlation may stem from reverse causality or unobserved confounders. Based on the data from the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study linked to register-based information on educational attainment and family background, this paper identifies the causal effect of education on risky health behaviors. To examine causal effects, we used a genetic score as an instrument for years of education. We found that individuals with higher education allocated more attention to healthy habits. In terms of health behaviors, highly educated people were less likely to smoke. Some model specifications also indicated that the highly educated consumed more fruit and vegetables, but the results were imprecise in this regard. No causal effect was found between education and abusive drinking. In brief, inference based on genetic instruments showed that higher education leads to better choices in some but not all dimensions of health behaviors.     

What individual life histories can (and cannot) tell about population dynamics

We present an overview of a long-term research programme that is aimed at revealing the relations between individual feeding, growth, reproduction and mortality in Daphnia pulex and the state and dynamics of the population. We analyse a physiologically structured population model, in which individual performance is described using an energy budget model that incorporates a food dependence. The model predictions are shown to be at odds with experimental observations on populations of Daphnia. We argue that these discrepancies are primarily due to insufficient knowledge about the precise size-scaling of the food ingestion rate, which plays a central role in the competitive interaction among individuals. To a lesser extent, the discrepancies arise because details about the energy budget of individual Daphnia are not sufficiently known for the food conditions prevailing in population experiments.     

Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden

What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors – including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects – contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.     

Informed dispersal, heterogeneity in animal dispersal syndromes and the dynamics of spatially structured populations

There is accumulating evidence that individuals leave their natal area and select a breeding habitat non-randomly by relying upon information about their natal and future breeding environments. This variation in dispersal is not only based on external information (condition dependence) but also depends upon the internal state of individuals (phenotype dependence). As a consequence, not all dispersers are of the same quality or search for the same habitats. In addition, the individual's state is characterized by morphological, physiological or behavioural attributes that might themselves serve as a cue altering the habitat choice of conspecifics. These combined effects of internal and external information have the potential to generate complex movement patterns and could influence population dynamics and colonization processes. Here, we highlight three particular processes that link condition-dependent dispersal, phenotype-dependent dispersal and habitat choice strategies: (1) the relationship between the cause of departure and the dispersers' phenotype; (2) the relationship between the cause of departure and the settlement behaviour and (3) the concept of informed dispersal, where individuals gather and transfer information before and during their movements through the landscape. We review the empirical evidence for these processes with a special emphasis on vertebrate and arthropod model systems, and present case studies that have quantified the impacts of these processes on spatially structured population dynamics. We also discuss recent literature providing strong evidence that individual variation in dispersal has an important impact on both reinforcement and colonization success and therefore must be taken into account when predicting ecological responses to global warming and habitat fragmentation.