The effect of land type diversity and spatial heterogeneity on farmland birds in Norway

The decline in farmland birds observed throughout Europe during recent decades has attracted much attention. Agricultural intensification or land abandonment are commonly forwarded as key drivers. Several countries have established agri-environmental schemes (AES) to counter these negative trends among farmland birds. This paper reports a study of the relationship between land use and bird species in the agricultural landscape of Norway. The main objective was to investigate the effect of spatial heterogeneity and diversity of land use on total richness and abundance of farmland birds at a national level.Monitoring the distribution and abundance of birds is part of the Norwegian monitoring programme for agricultural landscapes. The monitoring programme is based on mapping of 1 × 1 km squares distributed across the entire agricultural landscape. Within these squares permanent observation points are established for bird monitoring. Detailed interpretation of aerial photographs provides the land classification. We tested the relationship between landscape metrics at different levels of land type detail and species richness and abundance of farmland and non-farmland birds.There was a positive relationship between species richness and abundance of farmland birds and agricultural area. For non-farmland birds the relationship was negative. Spatial heterogeneity of land use was a significant positive factor for both farmland and non-farmland species. High land type diversity was positive for farmland bird richness, but negative for abundance. Non-farmland bird richness was not affected by land type diversity, but abundance had a negative response.The results presented in this paper highlight the importance of a spatial heterogeneous landscape. However, we also found that land type diversity could negatively affect the abundance of both farmland and non-farmland birds. Our findings suggest a need for different management approaches depending on whether the aim is increased species richness or abundance. Achieving both aims with the same means might be difficult. We thus suggest a need for land use analyses before proper management strategies can be implemented.     

Excessive nitrogen and phosphorus in European rivers: 2000–2050

Rivers export nutrients to coastal waters. Excess nutrient export may result in harmful algal blooms and hypoxia, affecting biodiversity, fisheries, and recreation. The purpose of this study is to quantify for European rivers (1) the extent to which N and P loads exceed levels that minimize the risk of harmful algal blooms and (2) the relative shares of sources of N and P in rivers. This may help to identify effective management strategies to reduce coastal eutrophication. We focus on 48 rivers in 27 countries of the European Union (EU27). We used the Global Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS) model to analyze nutrient export by rivers and the associated potentials for coastal eutrophication as reflected by Indicator for Coastal Eutrophication Potential (ICEP). In 2000, 38 of the 48 EU rivers indicated in our study had an ICEP > 0, indicating a relatively high potential for harmful algal blooms. These 38 rivers cover 60% of EU27 land area. Between 2000 and 2050 nutrient export by European rivers is projected to decrease. However, by 2050 still 34 EU rivers, covering 48% of the land area, have an ICEP > 0. This indicates that in these scenarios little progress is made in terms of environmental improvement. About one-third of the rivers with ICEP > 0 are N limited, and about two-thirds P limited. In N-limited rivers reducing N loads is a more effective way to reduce the risk for coastal eutrophication than reducing P, and vice versa. For N-limited rivers agriculture or sewage are the dominant sources of nutrients in river water. In P-limited rivers, sewage is found to be the dominant source of P, except for rivers draining into the Atlantic Ocean, where agriculture can also be dominant. A basin-specific approach is needed to effectively reduce N and P loads.     

Creating spatially continuous maps of past land cover from point estimates: A new statistical approach applied to pollen data

Reliable estimates of past land cover are critical for assessing potential effects of anthropogenic land-cover changes on past earth surface-climate feedbacks and landscape complexity. Fossil pollen records from lakes and bogs have provided important information on past natural and human-induced vegetation cover. However, those records provide only point estimates of past land cover, and not the spatially continuous maps at regional and sub-continental scales needed for climate modelling.We propose a set of statistical models that create spatially continuous maps of past land cover by combining two data sets: 1) pollen-based point estimates of past land cover (from the REVEALS model) and 2) spatially continuous estimates of past land cover, obtained by combining simulated potential vegetation (from LPJ-GUESS) with an anthropogenic land-cover change scenario (KK10). The proposed models rely on statistical methodology for compositional data and use Gaussian Markov Random Fields to model spatial dependencies in the data.Land-cover reconstructions are presented for three time windows in Europe: 0.05, 0.2, and 6 ka years before present (BP). The models are evaluated through cross-validation, deviance information criteria and by comparing the reconstruction of the 0.05 ka time window to the present-day land-cover data compiled by the European Forest Institute (EFI). For 0.05 ka, the proposed models provide reconstructions that are closer to the EFI data than either the REVEALS- or LPJ-GUESS/KK10-based estimates; thus the statistical combination of the two estimates improves the reconstruction. The reconstruction by the proposed models for 0.2 ka is also good. For 6 ka, however, the large differences between the REVEALS- and LPJ-GUESS/KK10-based estimates reduce the reliability of the proposed models. Possible reasons for the increased differences between REVEALS and LPJ-GUESS/KK10 for older time periods and further improvement of the proposed models are discussed.     

Nationwide analysis on the impact of socioeconomic land use factors and incidence of urothelial carcinoma

BackgroundIncidence rates for urothelial carcinoma (UC) have been reported to differ between countries within the European Union (EU). Besides occupational exposure to chemicals, other substances such as tobacco and nitrite in groundwater have been identified as risk factors for UC. We investigated if regional differences in UC incidence rates are associated with agricultural, industrial and residential land use.MethodsNewly diagnosed cases of UC between 2003 and 2010 were included. Information within 364 administrative districts of Germany from 2004 for land use factors were obtained and calculated as a proportion of the total area of the respective administrative district and as a smoothed proportion. Furthermore, information on smoking habits was included in our analysis. Kulldorff spatial clustering was used to detect different clusters. A negative binomial model was used to test the spatial association between UC incidence as a ratio of observed versus expected incidence rates, land use and smoking habits.ResultsWe identified 437,847,834 person years with 171,086 cases of UC. Cluster analysis revealed areas with higher incidence of UC than others (p = 0.0002). Multivariate analysis including significant pairwise interactions showed that the environmental factors were independently associated with UC (p < 0.001). The RR was 1.066 (95% CI 1.052–1.080), 1.066 (95% CI 1.042–1.089) and 1.067 (95% CI 1.045–1.093) for agricultural, industrial and residential areas, respectively, and 0.996 (95% CI 0.869–0.999) for the proportion of never smokers.ConclusionThis study displays regional differences in incidence of UC in Germany. Additionally, results suggest that socioeconomic factors based on agricultural, industrial and residential land use may be associated with UC incidence rates.     

A habitat quality indicator for common birds in Europe based on species distribution models

The EU 2020 Biodiversity Strategy requires the gathering of information on biodiversity to aid in monitoring progress towards its main targets. Common species are good proxies for the diversity and integrity of ecosystems, since they are key elements of the biomass, structure, functioning of ecosystems, and therefore of the supply of ecosystem services. In this sense, we aimed to develop a spatially-explicit indicator of habitat quality (HQI) at European level based on the species included in the European Common Bird Index, also grouped into their major habitat types (farmland and forest). Using species occurrences from the European Breeding Birds Atlas (at 50 km × 50 km) and the maximum entropy algorithm, we derived species distribution maps using refined occurrence data based on species ecology. This allowed us to cope with the limitations arising from modelling common and widespread species, obtaining habitat suitability maps for each species at finer spatial resolution (10 km × 10 km grid), which provided higher model accuracy. Analysis of the spatial patterns of local and relative species richness (defined as the ratio between species richness in a given location and the average richness in the regional context) for the common birds analysed demonstrated that the development of a HQI based on species richness needs to account for the regional species pool in order to make objective comparisons between regions. In this way, we proved that relative species richness compensated for the bias caused by the inherent heterogeneous patterns of the species distributions that was yielding larger local species richness in areas where most of the target species have the core of their distribution range. The method presented in this study provides a robust and innovative indicator of habitat quality which can be used to make comparisons between regions at the European scale, and therefore potentially applied to measure progress towards the EU Biodiversity Strategy targets. Finally, since species distribution models are based on breeding birds, the HQI can be also interpreted as a measure of the capacity of ecosystems to provide and maintain nursery/reproductive habitats for terrestrial species, a key maintenance and regulation ecosystem service.     

A multivariate analysis integrating ecological,socioeconomic and physical characteristics to investigate urban forest cover and plant diversity in Beijing,China

Understanding the factors driving the variation in urban green space and plant communities in heterogeneous urban landscapes is crucial for maintaining biodiversity and important ecosystem services. In this study, we used a combination of field surveys, remote sensing, census data and spatial analysis to investigate the interrelationships among geographical and social-economic variables across 328 different urban structural units (USUs) and how they may influence the distributions of urban forest cover, plant diversity and abundance, within the central urban area of Beijing, China. We found that the urban green space coverage varied substantially across different types of USUs, with higher in agricultural lands (N = 15), parks (N = 46) and lowest in utility zones (N = 36). The amount of urban green space within USUs declines exponentially with the distance to urban center. Our study suggested that geographical, social and economic factors were closely related with each other in urban ecological systems, and have important impacts on urban forest coverage and abundance. The percentage of forest as well as high and low density urban areas were mainly responsible for variations in the data across all USUs and all land use/land cover types, and thus are important constituents and ecological indicators for understanding and modeling urban environment. Herb richness is more strongly correlated with tree and shrub density than with tree and shrub richness (r = −0.472, p < 0.05). However, other geographic and socioeconomic factors showed no significant relationships with urban plant diversity or abundance.     

Distribution and molecular phylogeny of biliary trematodes (Opisthorchiidae) infecting native Lutra lutra and alien Neovison vison across Europe

The recent identification of Pseudamphistomum truncatum, (Rudolphi, 1819) (Trematoda: Opisthorchiidae) and Metorchis bilis (Braun, 1790) Odening, 1962 (synonymous with Metorchis albidus (Braun, 1893) Loos, 1899 and Metorchis crassiusculus (Rudolphi, 1809) Looss, 1899 (Trematoda: Opisthorchiidae)) in otters from Britain caused concern because of associated biliary damage, coupled with speculation over their alien status. Here, we investigate the presence, intensity and phylogeny of these trematodes in mustelids (principally otters) across Europe (Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Norway, Poland and Sweden and Britain). The trematodes were identified to species using the internal transcribed spacer II (ITS2) locus. Both parasites were found across Europe but at unequal frequency. In the German state of Saxony, eight out of eleven (73%) otters examined were infected with P. truncatum whilst this parasite was not found in either mink from Scotland (n = 40) or otters from Norway (n = 21). Differences in the phylogenies between the two species suggest divergent demographic histories possibly reflecting contrasting host diet or competitive exclusion, with M. bilis exhibiting greater mitochondrial diversity than P. truncatum. Shared haplotypes within the ranges of both parasite species probably reflect relatively unrestricted movements (both natural and anthropogenic) of intermediate and definitive hosts across Europe.     

Crossing the border? Structure of the red deer (Cervus elaphus) population from the Bavarian–Bohemian forest ecosystem

Anthropogenic impact such as overhunting and habitat fragmentation has reduced the total red deer population (Cervus elaphus) across Europe. In Germany remaining subpopulations are even confined to designated areas with limited or no gene flow among them. Red deer populations inhabiting the Bavarian–Bohemian forest ecosystem had been divided by a fortified State border between Germany and former Czechoslovakia. To assess red deer genetic diversity more than two decades after the removal of the fortifications, we analysed a population from the Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany, and one from the National Park ?umava, Czech Republic, using 11 microsatellite loci and a 910 bp long section of the mitochondrial control region (mtDNA). Bayesian analyses of microsatellite allele frequencies favoured the presence of a single population in the Bavarian-Bohemian forest ecosystem over other population genetic structures. This admixture was supported by a lack of population pairwise differentiation between German and Czech red deer microsatellite genotypes in the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA, F_ST = 0.009, p = 0.383). Contrastingly, AMOVA revealed a highly significant matrilinear differentiation of mtDNA between the two samples (Φ_ST = 0.285, p = 0.002), whereby German red deer belonged predominantly to haplogroup A (western Europe) and Czech red deer predominantly to haplogroup C (eastern Europe). In combination, these findings indicated a high degree of philopatry by does and extensive gene flow across the former border mediated by stags. They also identified the Bavarian–Bohemian forest ecosystem as part of a suture zone between western and eastern European red deer matrilines.     

Mapping ecosystem services: The supply and demand of flood regulation services in Europe

Ecosystem services (ES) feature highly distinctive spatial and temporal patterns of distribution, quantity, and flows. The flow of ecosystem goods and services to beneficiaries plays a decisive role in the valuation of ES and the successful implementation of the ES concept in environmental planning. This is particularly relevant to regulating services where demands emerge often spatially separated from supply. However, spatial patterns of both supply and demand are rarely incorporated in ES assessments on continental scales. In this paper, we present an ES modeling approach with low data demand, fit to be employed in scenario analysis and on multiple scales. We analyze flood regulation services at a European scale by explicitly addressing the spatial distribution of ES demand. A flood regulation supply indicator is developed based on scenario runs with a hydrological model in representative river catchments, incorporating detailed information on land, cover, land use and management. Land use sensitive flood damage estimates in the European Union (EU) are employed to develop a spatial indicator for flood regulation demand. Findings are transferred to the EU territory to create a map of the current supply of flood regulation and the potential supply under conditions of natural vegetation. Regions with a high capacity to provide flood regulation are mainly characterized by large patches of natural vegetation or extensive agriculture. The main factor limiting supply on a continental scale is a low water holding capacity of the soil. Flood regulation demand is highest in central Europe, at the foothills of the Alps and upstream of agglomerations. We were able to identify areas with a high potential capacity to provide flood regulation in conjunction with land use modifications. When combined with spatial patterns of current supply and demand, we could identify priority areas for investments in ES flood regulation supply through conservation and land use planning. We found that only in a fraction of the EU river catchments exhibiting a high demand, significant increases in flood regulation supply are achievable by means of land use modifications.     

A review on the indicator water footprint for the EU28

The water footprint (WF) is an indicator that accounts for both the direct (domestic water use) and indirect (water required to produce industrial and agricultural products) water use of a consumer or producer. This paper makes a review on the WF indicator and its applicability for EU28 (EU27 and Croatia) policy. More particularly the volumetric WF assessment approach of the Water Footprint Network (WFN) is reviewed. A synthesis of existing national WF accounting quantities results in an EU28 WF of production (WF_prod) of 3420 lcd (609 km³/yr) and a WF of consumption (WF_cons) of 4815 lcd (857 km³/yr). Of the latter 60% is internal and 40% is external to Europe. The EU28 is a net virtual water importer. The WF of agricultural products contributes by far the largest fraction of the total WF, i.e. 91% of the total WF_prod and 89% of the WF_cons. With traditional water use statistics, awareness campaigns and policy have always focused on increasing water efficiency in domestic and industrial water use. However, much more water can be saved in agricultural production processes, by reducing food waste and by a change in diet of the average EU consumer. Together with a comprehensive overview on possible ways to reduce WF, this paper provides a critical review on the WF methodology, showing that the development of the WF concept is still not complete. Practical complexities with data (availability of and inconsistencies in the underlying databases) are a concern. Some conceptual aspects need to be further developed and tested, not at least the indicators for sustainability assessment. The most important limitation is the fact that it is a partial tool to be used in combination with other analytical means or indicators when determining integrated policy options. Nevertheless, its main strength is the possibility to show the importance of consumption patterns and global dimensions in water governance.     

High genetic diversity and low population structure in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) from Croatia

The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a highly adaptable omnivorous mammal distributed across all continents on the northern hemisphere. Although the red fox is present throughout Europe, where it plays an important ecological and socio-economic role not only as a game species but also as a rabies reservoir, few studies have examined its population-level mitochondrial DNA variability. In this study, 27 mitochondrial DNA control region haplotypes were identified in 229 red fox samples taken from four regions in Croatia. Haplotype diversity of Croatian red foxes (0.901) was found to be among the highest of all European red fox populations studied to date. Genetic differentiation among regions was quite low, and statistically significant estimates of differentiation were obtained only when comparing the population from the peninsular region of Istria with the three continental populations. It seems that landscape barriers like rivers and small mountains do not restrict gene flow among foxes in the continental part of Croatia, while the combination of a narrow land bridge and altitudes exceeding 1000 m limit fox migration between Istria and the rest of the continent. Better understanding of small-scale population structure will require analysis of highly variable nuclear markers like microsatellites.     

Benchmarking the environmental performance of specialized milk production systems: selection of a set of indicators

Dairy production across the world contributes to environmental impacts such as eutrophication, acidification, loss of biodiversity, and use of resources, such as land, fossil energy and water. Benchmarking the environmental performance of farms can help to reduce these environmental impacts and improve resource use efficiency. Indicators to quantify and benchmark environmental performances are generally derived from a nutrient balance (NB) or a life cycle assessment (LCA). An NB is relatively easy to quantify, whereas an LCA provides more detailed insight into the type of losses and associated environmental impacts. In this study, we explored correlations between NB and LCA indicators, in order to identify an effective set of indicators that can be used as a proxy for benchmarking the environmental performance of dairy farms. We selected 55 specialised dairy farms from western European countries and determined their environmental performance based on eight commonly used NB and LCA indicators from cradle-to-farm gate. Indicators included N surplus, P surplus, land use, fossil energy use, global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), freshwater eutrophication potential (FEP) and marine eutrophication potential (MEP) for 2010. All indicators are expressed per kg of fat-and-protein-corrected milk. Pearson and Spearman Rho’s correlation analyses were performed to determine the correlations between the indicators. Subsequently, multiple regression and canonical correlation analyses were performed to select the set of indicators to be used as a proxy. Results show that the set of selected indicator, including N surplus, P surplus, energy use and land use, is strongly correlated with the eliminated set of indicators, including FEP (r = 0.95), MEP (r = 0.91), GWP (r = 0. 83) and AP (r = 0.79). The canonical correlation between the two sets is high as well (r = 0.97). Therefore, N surplus, P surplus, energy use and land use can be used as a proxy to benchmark the environmental performance of dairy farms, also representing GWP, AP, FEP and MEP. The set of selected indicators can be monitored and collected in a time and cost-effective way, and can be interpreted easily by decision makers. Other important environmental impacts, such as biodiversity and water use, however, should not be overlooked.     

From instantaneous to continuous: Using imaging spectroscopy and in situ data to map two productivity-related ecosystem services

Spatially well-informed decisions are essential to sustain and regulate processes and ecosystem services (ES), and to maintain the capacity of ecosystems to supply services. However, spatially explicit ES information is often lacking in decision-making, or exists only as ES maps based on categorical land cover data. Remote sensing (RS) opens new pathways to map ES, in particular biophysical ES supply. We developed an observation-based concept for spatially explicit and continuous ES mapping at landscape scale following the biophysical part of the ES cascade. We used Earth observations in combination with in situ data to map ecosystem properties, functions, and biophysical ES supply. We applied this concept in a case study to map two ES: carbon dioxide regulation and food supply. Based on Earth observations and in situ data, we determined the ecosystem property Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) to indicate ecosystem state and applied scaling models to estimate gross primary production (GPP) as indicator for ecosystem functioning and consequently carbon dioxide regulation and food supply as ES.Resulting ES maps showed heterogeneous patterns in ES supply within and among ecosystems, which were particularly evident within forests and grasslands. All investigated land cover classes were sources of CO₂, with averages ranging from ‐66 to ‐748 g C m^‐2 yr^‐1, after considering the harvest of total above ground biomass of crops and the storage organ, except for forest being a sink of CO₂ with an average of 105 g C m^‐2 yr^‐1. Estimated annual GPP was related to food supply with a maize grain yield average of 9.5 t ha^‐1 yr^‐1 and a sugar beet root yield of 110 t ha^‐1 yr^‐1. Validation with in situ measurements from flux towers and literature values revealed a good performance of our approach for food supply (relative RMSE of less than 23%), but also some over- and underestimations for carbon dioxide regulation. Our approach demonstrated how RS can contribute to spatially explicit and continuous ES cascade mapping and suggest that this information could be useful for environmental assessments and decision-making in spatial planning and conservation.     

Oesophageal cancer survival in Europe: A EUROCARE-4 study

Oesophageal cancer survival is poor with variation across Europe. No pan-European studies of survival differences by oesophageal cancer subtype exist. This study investigates rates and trends in oesophageal cancer survival across Europe. Data for primary malignant oesophageal cancer diagnosed in 1995–1999 and followed up to the end of 2003 was obtained from 66 cancer registries in 24 European countries. Relative survival was calculated using the Hakulinen approach. Staging data were available from 19 registries. Survival by region, gender, age, morphology and stage was investigated. Cohort analysis and the period approach were applied to investigate survival trends from 1988 to 2002 for 31 registries in 17 countries. In total 51,499 cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995–1999 were analysed. Overall, European 1- and 5-year survival rates were 33.4% (95% CI 32.9–33.9%) and 9.8% (95% CI 9.4–10.1%), respectively. Males, older patients and patients with late stage disease had poorer 1- and 5-year relative survival. Patients with squamous cell carcinoma had poorer 1-year relative survival. Regional variation in survival was observed with Central Europe above and Eastern Europe below the European pool. Survival for distant stage disease was similar across Europe while survival rates for localised disease were below the European pool in Eastern and Southern Europe. Improvement in European 1-year relative survival was reported (p = 0.016). Oesophageal cancer survival was poor across Europe. Persistent regional variations in 1-year survival point to a need for a high resolution study of diagnostic and treatment practices of oesophageal cancer.     

Seeing the forest for its multiple ecosystem services: Indicators for cultural services in heterogeneous forests

The ecosystem service (ES) framework is gaining traction in ecosystem management as a means to recognize the multiple benefits that ecosystems provide. In forested ecosystems, many structural attributes (trees, understory plants and woody debris) create heterogeneous ecosystems that provide numerous ecosystem services, including many that are culturally important. However, application of the ES framework to forest management is challenged by difficulties measuring and comparing multiple ES across diverse and heterogeneous forest conditions. Indicators can help bring the ES approach to forest management by providing a means for accurate ES inventory and mapping. We measured 10 forest ES in contrasting forest types to investigate the effects of past forest harvesting in coastal temperate rainforest of Vancouver Island, BC, Canada. Our objectives were to build a systematic set of ES indicators for coastal temperate forests based on forest structural features, including trees, coarse woody debris, and understory plants. To achieve this, we 1) analyzed field data to compare the effects of forest age (old-growth vs. second-growth) and ecological site conditions (riparian vs. upland forest) on the bundle of ES provided by different forest types; and 2) worked with a local indigenous wood carver to identify attributes of cedar trees (Thuja plicata) essential for traditional uses, including canoe carving. Forest age and forest type had significant and major effects on bundles of ES. Old-growth forests provided three times higher carbon storage, nine times higher wood volume, and eighteen times higher canopy habitat services than recovering forests. Within old-growth forests, the proportion of trees suitable for traditional indigenous wood carving was significantly higher in riparian stands. Yet of 456 trees measured, only 17 were cedar with potential traditional uses. Of those, trees for canoe carving were the least frequent (n = 3), which we identified as large (>110 cm DBH) trees of exceptional quality. In general, old-growth riparian forests were a hotspot of ES, providing for example nearly three times as much carbon storage as old-growth forests on upland sites and 12 times the amount of carbon storage as found in second-growth forests on upland sites. These results indicate that typical inventories of forest ES, which usually generalize across heterogeneity, may oversimplify dramatic variations in ES bundles in forested landscapes. Our novel set of stand-level ES indicators can improve the accuracy of ES assessments, incorporate important cultural ES, and help address the role of landscape heterogeneity in influencing ES.     

Future changes in summer MODIS-based enhanced vegetation index for the South-Central United States

Evaluating the response of vegetation to climate change is relevant to improving the management of both human and natural systems. Here, we quantify the response of the MODIS-based enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to temperature, precipitation, and large-scale natural variability across the South-Central U.S. for summer (JJA) from 2000 to 2013. We find statistically significant relationships between climate and EVI that vary across the region and are distinct for each land cover type: the mean coefficient of determination (R²) between EVI and climate is greatest for pasture (0.61 ± 0.13) and lowest for forest (0.55 ± 0.14). Among the climate variables, three-month cumulative precipitation has the strongest influence on summer vegetation, particularly in semi-arid west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Summer monthly maximum temperature plays an important role in the eastern half of Texas and Oklahoma, moderated by the influence of both Atlantic and Pacific teleconnection indices over inter-annual time scales. Based on these relationships, we train, cross-validate, and, where statistically significant relationships exist, combine this multivariate predictive model with projected changes in teleconnection indices and statistically-downscaled temperature and precipitation from 16 CMIP5 global climate models to quantify future changes in EVI. As global mean temperature increases, projected EVI decreases, indicative of stressed and dry vegetation, particularly for grasslands as compared to other land types, and in Oklahoma and western, central and Gulf Coast Texas for mid- and end-of-century. These trends have potentially important implications for agriculture and the regional economy, as well as for ecosystems and endemic species that depend on vegetation.     

Relationship of fish and macroinvertebrate communities in the mid-Atlantic uplands: Implications for integrated assessments

Indices developed for stream bioassessment are typically based on either fish or macroinvertebrate assemblages. These indices consist of metrics which subsume attributes of various species into aggregate measures reflecting community-level ecological responses to disturbance. However, little is known about the relationship between fish and macroinvertebrate metrics, or about how ecological health assessments are affected by assemblage-specific responses to disturbance. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and regression analysis of existing fish (n = 371) and macroinvertebrate (n = 442) stream bioassessment data from a multi-source dataset to determine broad scale, within-assemblage metric patterns, and to examine the intercorrelation of fish and macroinvertebrate metrics (n = 246) and their response to watershed area and land use/land cover gradients. Fish and macroinvertebrate metrics expressed as principal components (PCs) accounted for 72.4 and 85.4% of dataset variance, respectively, with PC-metric patterns reflecting aspects of stream impairment including water and habitat quality. Model components predicting fish metric response differed among fish PCs, with watershed area and macroinvertebrate metric response strongly correlated with the first fish PC, and remaining fish PC models consisting of watershed area, land use, and macroinvertebrate PCs. Correlation between fish and macroinvertebrate PCs, and models relating fish and macroinvertebrate PCs generally explained less variation (13–27%) than metric response models of fish (25–34%) and macroinvertebrates (8–38%) to watershed area and land use/land cover variables. Best-response models integrating fish and macroinvertebrate PCs, watershed area, and land use/land cover variables accounted for the greatest variation in fish PCs (32–50%) across sites. Because fish and macroinvertebrate metrics provide different information on ecological condition, integrated use of information from multiple groups may be appropriate when developing monitoring programs.     

The impact of forest encroachment after agricultural land abandonment on passerine bird communities: The case of Greece

Agricultural land abandonment is one of the main drivers of land use change, leading to various responses of farmland ecological communities. In an effort to better understand the effect of agricultural land abandonment on passerine bird communities, we sampled 20 randomly selected sites [1 km × 1 km] in remote Greek mountains, reflecting an abandonment gradient, in terms of forest encroachment. We sampled 169 plots using the point count method of fixed distance (47 passerine species), and we investigated bird diversity and community structure turnover along the gradient. We found that grazing intensity has a beneficial effect hampering forest encroachment that follows progressively land abandonment. Habitat composition changes gradually with forests developing at the expense of open meadows and heterogeneous grasslands. Forest encroachment has a significant negative effect on bird diversity and species richness, affecting in particular typical farmland and Mediterranean shrubland species. Birds form five distinct ecological clusters after land abandonment: species mostly found in pinewoods and cavity-dwelling species; species that prefer open forests forest edges or ecotones; species that prefer shrubland or open habitats with scattered woody vegetation; Mediterranean farmland birds that prefer semi-open habitats with hedges and/or woodlots; and, generalist forest-dwelling or shrubland species. We extracted a set of 22 species to represent the above ecological communities, as a new monitoring tool for agricultural land use change and conservation. We suggest that the maintenance of rural mosaics should be included in the priorities of agricultural policy for farmland bird diversity conservation.     

The influence of rapid urbanization and land use changes on terrestrial carbon sources/sinks in Guangzhou,China

Complex changes in carbon sources and sinks caused by rapid urbanization have been observed with extensive changes in the quantity, structure, and spatial pattern of land use types. Based on the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model and on gray relational analysis, we analyzed the influence of land use changes on carbon sinks and emissions in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2012. The aim was to identify suitable options for built-up land expansion that would allow for minimal carbon losses. The key results were as follows: (1) Built-up land increased by 118.91% in Guangzhou city over the study period, with this expansion taking the form of concentric circles extending around the old Yuexiu district. (2) Carbon emissions over the period of analysis significantly exceeded carbon sink capabilities. The total carbon sink decreased by 30.02%, from 535.40 × 10³ t to 374.6 × 10³ t. Total carbon emissions increased by 1.89 times, from 13.73 × 10⁶ t to 39.67 × 10⁶ t; 80% of carbon emissions were derived from energy consumption. (3) There were large differences in the extent of carbon sink losses at different scales of built-up land expansion and land use change. In Guangzhou, the loss of carbon sink is small when cultivated land (though not prime farmland) and water bodies are converted to built-up land on a small scale. The loss of carbon sink is much smaller when grasslands are converted to built-up land on a large scale. However, forested land, which has excellent carbon sink functions, should not be converted. (4) Changes in carbon sinks were mainly affected by natural factors and land urbanization. Changes in carbon emissions were mainly affected by population urbanization, economic urbanization, and land urbanization. (5) To achieve “economical and intensive use of land”, “urban growth boundary” and “ecological red lines” should be determined for government policies on land use management. These factors have great significance for “increasing carbon sinks and reducing carbon emissions” in urban ecological systems.     

Proanthocyanidin diversity in the EU ‘HealthyHay’ sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) germplasm collection

This study investigated 37 diverse sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia Scop.) accessions from the EU ‘HealthyHay’ germplasm collection for proanthocyanidin (PA) content and composition. Accessions displayed a wide range of differences: PA contents varied from 0.57 to 2.80 g/100 g sainfoin; the mean degree of polymerisation from 12 to 84; the proportion of prodelphinidin tannins from 53% to 95%, and the proportion of trans-flavanol units from 12% to 34%. A positive correlation was found between PA contents (thiolytic versus acid–butanol degradation; P < 0.001; R² = 0.49). A negative correlation existed between PA content (thiolysis) and mDP (P < 0.05; R² = −0.30), which suggested that accessions with high PA contents had smaller PA polymers. Cluster analysis revealed that European accessions clustered into two main groups: Western Europe and Eastern Europe/Asia. In addition, accessions from USA, Canada and Armenia tended to cluster together. Overall, there was broad agreement between tannin clusters and clusters that were based on morphological and agronomic characteristics.